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EURUSD Drops Below 1.27, Next Support At 1.2590
As rumors of preparations for a Greek Euro exit resume, even if attributed to an old Spiegel piece we wrote about back in 2011, and the USD seems like the cleanest dog in a dirty fight (this week at least), EURUSD drops below 1.27 for the first time since September of 2010. This is a 76.4% (Fib) retracement of the 2005-to-2008 rally and has few solid support levels below here at 1.2590, then the figure 1.25 quickly follows, and on to the 1.2330 10/28/08 swing low and finally the 6/7/10 swing low at 1.1877. All of this is not helped when the former IMF Chief Economist doesn't expect the eurozone to survive entirely, via Bloomberg:
*EX-IMF CHIEF ECONOMIST RAGHURAM RAJAN SAYS EUROZONE MAY NOT SURVIVE ENTIRELY:CNBC
Chart: Bloomberg
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QE AHOY bitchez!
What will PIMPCO do..?
PIMPCO tried to become a bond vigilante last year, and they had their assess handed out to them. Now, they are in their little rat hole waiting for scraps.
Once the EUR breaches 1.2, QEX is a given. Benocide WILL win all races, even the one to the bottom. I expect China to then follow with its own devaluation, as their economy is slowing.
PM's are the only option for anyone with a few dollars and a conscience.
I think today after market close s&p downgrade. The numbers were too good today for the market not to rally.
Someone needs to create a new website called Nancy Pelosi's LIVE TRADES.
If she kept it up to date real-time, I'd be the most dedicated hardcore subscriber within nanoseconds.
Short term LONG EUR he Faber?
I first predicted EUR/USD at 1:1 for 2012 back in September, and thought that was aggressive at the time.
Geeze. At this rate, I'll look the fool by March.
Print, Bernankio, Print!
'Print, Bernankio, Print!'
He can print €'s now? All the same, true to Hollywood script the end is never in doubt.
Still, it doesn't help us much here across the pond if he soaks up all the MBSs available.
Gene, you're correct as more often the case than not, and you raise a very relevant point:
I would just amend your statement to read "soaks up all the USTs available," because that's the secret sauce, IMO.
It's least ugly dog in show for now!
Yes, but recall in the summer of 2010 when everyone here was calling for that very same parity, and then 1.20s came and the runup commenced?
Ideally we do see EURUSD parity, but China won't let that happen without a fight (i.e. using some of its $3Tr of reserves and dumping USD)
Correction, the QE master and the Administration will not let that happen. The plan to export their way out of this is, last I heard, still the only somewhat coherent idea but seeing that the manufacturing base cannot return overnight it'll mean "killing the $" as Bass so succinctly put it. China has little or no big plans over the short to medium time-frame except maybe devalue the RMB even more vis-a-vis the $.
I have no issue with people saying the USD is going to 0, but i prefer hearing them put their money where their mouth is. Bass himself says he is not actually short the $, just because its the least big POS among the other ones.
As for a yuan devaluation - you have seen the steady decline of the USDCNY for the last decade right? Only place to go is down (i.e. CNY up)
CNY up because the last decade has been down? That is asinine. I hope you have more than that to support your argument. Hopefully you've done some business and have some experience with the Chinese because you'd realize they are in the business of devaluation.
Print US dollars so the US dollar sinks and the euro goes back up... relatively of course.
Gold still hanging tough in the face of a "strong dollar".
Imagine the jump in gold when folks finally start addressing the woes of the US instead of Europe! US on borrowed time just like eurozone.
Au has hitched itself to the Euro... That's why the "Euro will collapse" rhetoric is smokescreen bullshit...
NWO wants the EURO (or their goal of one world currency gets dealt a blow)... QE3 is happening right now (by way of SWAPS)... If the "buzz" on that wears off... Then... a "packaged" Qe3 will be publicized (2T worth, by my calculations)...
That would effectively buy time to keep the EUR/$ from collapsing (at least until after the 2012 elections)...
They'll keep the Euro afloat until that time... Then come the bank holidays & eventual reset... A "strong dollar" right now would only allow Russians & Chinese to take physical oil & gold off the market cheaply... Even THE ILLUMINATI know this & can't let that happen...
Amusingly... In this respect... They're WRONG FOOTED in this moment (without a 'formal' QE3)...
I agree with most of what you said except for the 2012 elections. I don't think we will make it that far, and with the way Obummer is speeding up his dictatorial powers I believe we may have seen our last election.
I also think two trillion is already baked into the market. The package is going to have to be larger.
I don't think we will make it that far
We'll make it there with ease... That part of the job they have done well (getting both sides to marginalize Ron Paul)... Obama is the puppet & Romney is the 'pinch hitter' (in case Obama pulls a hammy)... Ron Paul is being pushed out to play the Ross Perot role (which, in the end, ought to ice the election for Obama)...
I also think two trillion is already baked into the market...
Either way... It's irrelevant... I'm 100% with you when you say 2T is already baked in... In fact, if that's the total that they put on a QE3, then I think the markets will tank ("sell the news")... That ought to be a hoot if it happens that way... Money printing formally announced and the S&P drops... It would lead the "inflationistas" to start scratching their heads...
Collectively... It doesn't matter... NOW IS THE TIME to be hoarding physical more than ever (at any price)... The last thing the NWO wants (while it's trying to HOARDE physical), is to let the dollar get too strong & allow the Russians & Chinese, or Saudis, to get their hands on it (with their surplus of dollars)...
Something not so secretly brewing--NDAA obviously aimed at Americans and protecting the PTB during any post-collapse rebellion. Such overwhelming congressional support for a tyrannical law is telling.
"the way Obummer is speeding up his dictatorial powers I believe we may have seen our last election"
A ridiculous line...
This was said under W's reign of error as well...With the RomneyTron 2013™ CorpoRATe robot waiting in the wings, you don't have to wrry/wonder about coups...American presidential elections are strictly civilized, bought and paid for affairs
There you go. This is the big signal that the US ponzi market is ignoring today. On the weekly chart, that opens the Eur/USD to 119.64...which is why the Street has been talking about 1.20
Just why criminal syndicate Wall Street analysts and bankers have been chatting about decoupling is now clear...as they prepare algos to ignore the European break up signal coming from the currency. Good luck with that.
HYG is about to send a clear sell signal, as well.
Oil has been saying it all morning.
Advise getting your basket ready to catch PMs lower...as a parabolic ramp in the studman USD is now almost certain.
**oh...and if someone could tell me just what the VIX tracks, I'd appreciate it. It certainly isn't fear or risk or the cost of puts vs. calls. Help here would be much appreciated.**
I've believed for a while that the VIX is being "managed" by the Fed to discourage it's use.
Huh? Maybe. My theory is that the VIX tracks the inverse of the retail price of a head of ice berg lettuce. Who knows?
I've seen your posts constantly addressing VIX. What do you want it to do exactly? It is nothing more than a indicator of SPX option premiums. We all know by now the only trade on the synthetics (VXX if you must, VIX futures otherwise) is to short, with a few lucky longs whenever the vol pops, nothing more.
Mine is really more of a macro market commentary. i.e. the VIX is currently telling me that almost no one has insurance on their long portfolio...as the non market market stands on the edge of the cliff of an obvious European default/breakup. This subsequent to a market that continually advances on almost ZERO participation [volume]. It simply makes no sense.
That's more my point, Zero.
Additionally, no one really talks about the effect of the SPY on this calculation [the S&P]...of course, that instrument being entirely perverted by the very construction method of ETFs [infinite creation units on finite underlying equites]...the ETF arb effect [or what I often call the puke buckets of the market, or the synthetic "buyers" in a market that has almost no buyers]
Low customer volume, real SPX vol is 20 and falling. So VIX 21 is a slight premium.
Also Vol can be arb'd and is arb'd. Timber Hill was the first big group to do that.
SPY is a synthetic just like futures. If you buy 1b in SPY they arb and buy 1b in SP500 stocks, thats price change, not phoney creation
QE3 creates a potential "floor", making crash protection (puts) less valuable
Vix
expected movemement of the SPX over the next 30 days as a %, then annualized
so if SPY is trading 120 and the atm option with 30 days to go is $10 that's vix 100
Huh...interesting...as the Eurozone is clearly near its "known" end. If you are correct, then Wall Street has just set a solar system wide record for "decoupling." Maybe those stories about a Martian bailout are true?
I'm sticking with my inverse ice berg lettuce theory until such time as a more accurate theory is posited here.
I see the nearest support at 1.261, with 1.1875 below that..............................slowly meandering towards parity!!!!
gold acts great on a shit tape...us equities seem to like a low euro....AXE is very confused....time to go to the bar....crazy market....I would think dollar sense stocks like CAT MMM IBM would be really weak, gold down etc....nuts..
You left out MCD...where the dumbest hedge fund managers in the world have been buying every day for one full year.
You are correct...those issues should all be falling, but in the new Ponzi market, selling causes equities to first rise. Yes, I know...selling causing equities to rise does not make sense....but that it is because it is no longer a market.
In FX land, however, there will be no way to simply ignore the Euro dollar collapse...which I think is simply days away now. And when that break ocurrs, again at 127.08, then you will see the Ponzi market plunge, which of course will be purposefully managed to get Ben Bernanke and his crew of doves talking about QE again.
Today is a fascinating session, as everything is crystal clear, and everyone can see the obvious disaster just ahead...so cue the criminial syndicate Wall Street banker posters on this board to say stupid things like "it's a known known" and "cash on the sidelines" and "decoupling."
Total fucking joke...the entire financial services industry and its psychopathic members.
gold acts great on a shit tape...us equities seem to like a low euro....AXE is very confused....time to go to the bar....crazy market....I would think dollar sense stocks like CAT MMM IBM would be really weak, gold down etc....nuts..
Looks like a test of that CHF peg is coming soon. Wonder how Kashya is positioned for this move?
Let's see what happens to the EURUSD when the EZ sterilization programs ends in the next few week!
See:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/presenting-europes-complete-%E2%82%AC1-tri...
You're correct, sterilization will end soon and monetization will begin. You will not hear about it though.
Then sterilization again. But focused on the 'organic production units' this time.
A run to the dollar. #WhatCollapse?
Short the afternoon. S&P sovereign rating division are on your side. Has anyone here detailed the knock-ons if France gets downgraded?
I'll be vacationing in Euro land this summer.
Pity you can't bring yer gun with you -- you might need it!
Folks, the Teuro is a fictitious currency - it simply doesn't exist in the world we live in.
That some believe otherwise belies the insanity we are being fed, eh?
The trainwreck is coming.
with the EUR in freefall its just a matter of time before the chinese opens up the gates of credit, bcs soon the EUR countries won't be able to buy anything from china no more. Followed by Bernanke etc etc....currency wars - gold should start to take off any day now
Whisper rumor that an unnamed individual, reputed (not confirmed) to be a lieutenant of the House of Red Shield, will bail out PIIGS+France+UK (PIIGSFUK) for the moment, if the EU changes the name of the Euro to Soro.
It doesn't matter, US stocks continue to rally. The homeless people are all buying Ipad and uses groupon.
Oh yeah, a drop in the DOW and the S&P and +0.14% on the NASDAQ is a real rally there...
do i hear yodeling?
or is that a cry for help from the SNB, where hilde's wife has received gazillions in free advertiZing for her art galleries?
EURCHF Chart- Live Forex
the support is @ 120, right? that was pretty funny last month when the EUR was perched @ 1.30 USD and the swissies were jawboning about supporting the euro @ 125 or 130...just b4 the squirrel fell offa the branch...
10 yrs {[cnyusd][chinese yuan to dollar]} ___ http://www.forecast-chart.com/currency-exchange-charts.html
who's in the box with the ring outside expanding?
Ref: "Growth of the Offshore Renminbi [RMB] Market" ___ daniel hui *hsbc FX eg. singapore
http://www.hsbcnet.com/rmb# ____ ~ 6min interview video
Bullish for Nasdaq it seems. Was bullish on the way up, also bullish on the way down. Tech bubbles... Like a gum in your hair. You really need to clip it to get rid of it...
Euro structure "as is" is not sustainable http://qeurope.blogspot.com/2012/01/normal-0-21-false-false-false-fr-x-n...
wow thats a great chart right there on the euro but ive noticed that after hours activity can paint a different picture AH/EUR-USD http://www.traddr.com/photo/aheurusd-720
Good projection for EURUSD cutting through the BS: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sXzqQL3SvBs