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EURUSD Free-Falling

Tyler Durden's picture





 

EURUSD just traded under1.2150, down over 130 pips on the day. The question is - will wee see the ubiquitous rip-roaring reversion rally into the European close again? Rather notably this is as big a liquidity/break-up premium to its swap-spread-implied fair-value as we have seen since the peak of the crisis in mid November last year!

 

 

and the premium to swap-spread-based fair indicates a great a concern over break up as we have seen since the peak of the crisis last fall...

Chart: Bloomberg

 


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Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:01 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Fucking awsome, bloody muppets.   Will we see reversion?  Is the pope Catholic?

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:02 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Thought the last bailout fixed that.......huh?

 

Guess not.

 

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:04 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

King Dollar!

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:08 | Link to Comment Peter K
Peter K's picture

And energy independant within 5 years to boot :))))))))))))))))))))))

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:16 | Link to Comment I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

bernanke said on wednesday he had news clippings  from 2008 and 2009 about how wrong they all were regarding the collapse of the dollar,,,,,,,run for your lives

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:18 | Link to Comment spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

will we see reversion....haha...thats so cute.....ofcourse we will, currency markets influence more than just currency markets silly

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:24 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Yes the dollar smells just as shitty as the euro; it is all fiat and done by decree.  Nothing but IOUs this system is.  DO away with this system:

Buy Silver!

That which has no counter party risk!  That which keeps its molecular structure and stores its wealth, however its wealth is determined!  Take the money supply back!

BUY SILVER!

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:40 | Link to Comment j0nx
j0nx's picture

Anyone who bought silver in the past year has had their asses HANDED to them. Buying it for TEOTWAWKI is one thing but buying it as an investment is a poor choice. Junk away.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:44 | Link to Comment Nussi34
Nussi34's picture

They should have called it Icarus, not Euro.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:47 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Anyone else notice a slight decoupling of silver from gold this morn?  They normally chart in tandem.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:50 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

"one thing but buying it as an investment"

Hahahaha, good one.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:55 | Link to Comment Think for yourself
Think for yourself's picture

I don't know - I bought 40 oz of silver over the last year - price average, premium included, 33$ per - and I still have exactly 40 oz. It feels like a rather stable vehicle, doesn't it?

Your problem is that you think of silver as a speculative investment - but those who do understand silver see it as a safe storage vehicle for accumulated wealth. These are 2 very different purposes which by definition are polar opposites of each other.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 17:01 | Link to Comment j0nx
j0nx's picture

Negative ghost rider. I bought it for end of the world and trading purposes if shit breaks down along with lots of ammo. As an investment not so much. That's my point. As an investment it is not a sound choice.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 11:03 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Buy low......

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 11:17 | Link to Comment Think for yourself
Think for yourself's picture

... and don't sell (unless if you really fucking need to)

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:41 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

FYI Saudi Arabia's domestic oil consumption has doubled in the past decade.  It is rising exponentially.

Countries may become oil independent in a way they may not prefer.  If there are no oil exports to buy, then you are independent.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:06 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

In light of the Olympics, I would like to introduce a new event - Can Kicking.  We have already seen the exposition phase ofthis event introduction, so to bring it into the fold of the golbalist games is the logical next step.

I can see it now, audience members cheering on their respective central bank and their can kicking ability.  The good thing is that no amount of dexterity is needed, as old white men have been can kicking for a good forty years now.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:12 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I like it.  My only suggestion;

All bankers and government monetary "experts" are forced to play, the losers are publicly executed by guillotine.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:12 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

GAME ON!!!!!

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:17 | Link to Comment HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

And the winners probably need a tar and feather treatment too.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:19 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Can we dip the top three in molten gold, silver, and bronze?

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:40 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

If I could up arrow more than onece I would.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:22 | Link to Comment JenkinsLane
JenkinsLane's picture

I think there should be something "Hunger Games-esque" for the losers instead of just the plain ole' Frenchie - something to keep the kids interested like.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:43 | Link to Comment Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

How about another introductory sport for the London Olympics?

   Cliff diving

 

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:54 | Link to Comment yabyum
yabyum's picture

Can kicking? No one can bend it like Bernanke!

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 13:50 | Link to Comment PoorByChoice
PoorByChoice's picture

Priceless!

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 11:04 | Link to Comment JamesBond
JamesBond's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q395-F6hAcg

Same thing -

Our politicians own the real world record.

 

jb

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:00 | Link to Comment ThunderingTurd
ThunderingTurd's picture

Yes. Groundhog Day...

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:00 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Like clockwork, London session handing it over to NY session, a few more dips, and then an EOD rip to burn the sheep shorting under 1.214s

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:05 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

The best they will get today, is a 38.2% retrace.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:01 | Link to Comment AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Answer: Most likely.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:01 | Link to Comment Sofa King
Sofa King's picture

Selling off to cover those Chipotle losses...

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:07 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Chipotle loses bring on visions of diarrhea.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 11:08 | Link to Comment Lohn Jocke
Lohn Jocke's picture

Have you tried Chipotleaway? It gets the bloodstains out of your underwear.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:01 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 eur/aud gives new definition to beating someone while they are down!

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:01 | Link to Comment Itch
Itch's picture

Somehow i think that wont happen today.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:05 | Link to Comment Itch
Itch's picture

i.e swiss 10yr in 7.6% and Germany in 4.1%...til take a brave man to go all in now. Nothing wrong with scalping the bottom though.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:03 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

teh eurozone is on fiya!

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:05 | Link to Comment Portugal
Portugal's picture

Reversion? We dont want it... from this side of the world. Its good for our exports... to you!

Keep paying the bills guys!

Kind regards from Europe

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:06 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

And we are down less than .5%. Free markets. Right!

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:45 | Link to Comment Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

Are you saying that ANOTHER rate is being manipulated by libor-ing bankers in Europe?

   I bet the Fed does nothing!

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:07 | Link to Comment I Am Not a Copp...
I Am Not a Copper Top's picture

None of it matters.  We will probably close green on the day on no volume.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:18 | Link to Comment JenkinsLane
JenkinsLane's picture

Chin up son.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:08 | Link to Comment mark7
mark7's picture

Why would Spanish and Italians want to leave from eurozone when it is nicely providing a devaluation? Spanish export sectors hit the all time record this March. And Americans are once again shorting eur-usd aka shorting themselves until turning blue.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:15 | Link to Comment dpr10
dpr10's picture

you are being sarcastic right;;))if devaluation is such a good thing, why dont you exit;;))

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:21 | Link to Comment mark7
mark7's picture

In the export sectors devaluation usually help a lot and in the US this euro devaluation makes even harder to close the trade deficit. Airbus vs. Boeing for example, who is going to win now more orders...Airbus.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 12:23 | Link to Comment Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Uh - Airbus wingspar problems ain't gonna go away if the Euro devalues - there are quality/production/reliability issues and problems with the 370 that actually matter a hell of a lot more to purchasers than the value of the Euro on any given day or month.

aka "If it ain't Boeing, I ain't going."

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 12:57 | Link to Comment mark7
mark7's picture

What a bunch of bullshit. That problem has been solved already.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:08 | Link to Comment CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Strong dollar will pull us out of this great recession.

 

[sarc]

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:48 | Link to Comment BlandJoe24
BlandJoe24's picture

Not saying this is how I want it to go, but today (lit tomorrow) is options expiration, so given the dominant short interest and the historical precedent, seems likely EURUSD and equities in general will shoot way up sometime today (to squeeze out the shorts).

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:10 | Link to Comment Bubble
Bubble's picture

An agent of the Swiss Nat Bank selling I'm told

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:09 | Link to Comment magpie
magpie's picture

Ugh, what's taking so long. Re-test the 1.20 already.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:10 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Prepare for the intervention.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:12 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

The Euro is around 120, but well off its historical low in 2001 of around 80.   When all is said and done, the Euro should be worth less than it was in 2001.

 

And since the USD index is 58% weighted in the Euro, the USD is likely to rise over the long term.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/index/usd/monthly/

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:37 | Link to Comment Dan Conway
Dan Conway's picture

IMHO the fair value of the Euro is ZERO.  The fair value of the USD is double the euro.  Our turn on for going over the cliff will be after financial elites finish their orderly liquidation of the eurozone. 

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:13 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Peter Schiff must be puking up blood.

 

S & P 500 and U.S. Treasuries screaming to new record highs in Europe today.

http://www.wallstreetbear.com/board/view.php?topic=103615&post=377178

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:23 | Link to Comment Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

What no mention of LULU today. 80 to 56 in blood puking, blow torched record speed.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:30 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

No mention of Chipotle either.  

Classic projection.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 12:35 | Link to Comment Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Hey Robo, how's yer CMG long position doing? Great call!

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:20 | Link to Comment Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Someone hurting badly for dollars. Never good.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:22 | Link to Comment Peter K
Peter K's picture

Actually, someone is pumping USD into Euroland. There may be panic in Italy and Spanish debt, but the rest of Euroland is not hitting the panic button just yet.

BTW, wonder if this has anything to do with the last G20 meeting. It's as if a back door USD funding facility was openned up to Euroland.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:25 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

No one is hurting for dollars.  This is too many dollars all jumping around and making bets.  Hyperinflation causes volatility--Especially in this leveraged freak show of a derivatives based market.  But some people need to see the solidification of real asset prices to understand real fear, the bursting of fraudulent inflationary reservoirs, and the endgame.  You will see it soon enough. 

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 11:17 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

The only reason USD is stronger is b/c, as PIMCO put it, "It is the cleanest dirty shirt in the bin".

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:23 | Link to Comment Ted Baker
Ted Baker's picture

YEAP THE FBFL CENTRAL SWISS BANKERS ARE GETTING READY FOR THE WEEKEND..WATCH THE GBP.EUR

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:27 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:31 | Link to Comment mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

And I'm free, I'm free fallin'....
....I wanna free fall out into nothin'
Gonna leave this world for awhile

And I'm free, I'm free fallin'

Something about the guilt one feels that makes one do the same bad behavior again and again, to feel that bad feeling that feels so good, because the guilt has that piquant self-pity that lends itself so exquisitely to the fulfilment of one's deepest need for self-destruction...

IS THAT WHAT'S REALLY GOING ON?????

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:35 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

Oil is barely falling, stocks indexes are holding on.

I wonder where the stairstep algo will show up today?

Chipotle is only managing to fall to beginning of the year levels. It need to be cut in half from here to wipe out the two year QE momo insanity run the stock went on. $415 for a fucking burrito chain?

People will look back at this period and compare Chipotle, LULU, and the rest of the momo basket to Pets.com.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:40 | Link to Comment Dan Conway
Dan Conway's picture

don't forget CRM.  CRM's market cap was nearly double CMG's before today's CMG drop.  At least CMG makes money!  I can eat a burrito but I can't eat a cloud.  The only cloud that CRM is creating is the mushroom cloud when that finally crashes.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:35 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Anybody who looked at the post yesterday could see the money to be made by playing those trends. Now that the cat's out of the bag and the dumb money can follow the trade the rules will be changed, count on it.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:40 | Link to Comment magpie
magpie's picture

There are some trades that can't even be frontrun by GS themselves.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 11:00 | Link to Comment BlandJoe24
BlandJoe24's picture

Assumption you're making is ZH posts are read/knowledge disseminated to enough of percentage of traders as to change trends overnight.  What evidence backs up this assumption?  Not fighting, just honestly curious...

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:37 | Link to Comment Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

Free falling.

Have to love videos of videos. Music is fine.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gqT6En2O78

 

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:49 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

"Cause I'm free.............freefallin!!!!!111"

EURUSD signing Tom Petty at a karaoke bar.

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 10:58 | Link to Comment Hetty Green
Hetty Green's picture

Somebody forgot to program the robots today.

 

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 11:11 | Link to Comment BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Shorted the EUR/USD @ 1.2240...stop at 1.2220 (douchebag buying dickhead profit stop).

Target....1.1875......

Your welcome

Fri, 07/20/2012 - 14:56 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Timber!

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