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EURUSD Opens 100 Pips Lower On Latest Round Of Greek Default Fears

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Same Sunday, Different Day. As the FX market opens, the accrued rumors from this weekend, once again focusing squarely on Greece have come to a fore. The immediate result: a EURUSD which is down 100 pips from the Friday close. Gold and ES opens in 2 hours, Asia in 4, the European bailout rumor mill shortly thereater, the central bank global liquidity pumpathon just after that, and so on. We have seen this all play out before and frankly it is getting boring.

 

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Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:20 | 1682648 unky
unky's picture

Last monday we already hit 1.3499. So it still seems OK now, I guess.

 

By the way, did ZeroHedge report the limitation of swiss banks to draw out cash. This applies for German citizens, as of now (due to new tax agreements between both governments).

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:31 | 1682890 toothpicker
toothpicker's picture

Link? Thanks

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 20:47 | 1683309 GtownSLV
GtownSLV's picture

One of my favorite charts. There's a little support at 1.352, then 1.270. A nice Bernanke bitch slap to the FED when they dillute the shit out of the dollar and it still's going up. Isn't it about time for another bailout rumer?

http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/live-charts/

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 01:18 | 1683719 Djirk
Djirk's picture

hmmmm since all the euro dra(ch)ma has been going on for months, one would assume some default risk is priced into the EU/USD. So when there is  real news and/or a resolution, the dollar may be fjucked  EU/USD ...2????

 

Funny how after the EU drops, it magically arllies when the US markets open? Ben you out there? China trying the same buy debt, sell goods, then try to buy assets on the cheap strategy?

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 18:17 | 1683003 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

It looks to me that ZH got overrun by 1 sentence (irrelevant) trolls. They just dilute the content with their useless statements and pseudo thoughts. Oh, well success has some price, not to mention paid trolls.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:18 | 1682649 Hulk
Hulk's picture

It is boring as hell. Been eating popcorn for almost 4 years now...

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:21 | 1682657 runlevel
runlevel's picture

could you imagine 4 years worth of popcorn all in one kernel... KABOOM!!!!!!

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:34 | 1682708 Hman
Hman's picture

It must be a Keynesian corn your eating ...

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:22 | 1682664 Hansel
Hansel's picture

+1, I've been bored for quite a while.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:37 | 1682903 X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

can we get this over with, please

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 19:28 | 1683144 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

always takes longer than you can ever imagine ...this banking collapse, like the recent stock market rally, is like water torture or waiting on your luggage at an airport.. you know it's going to happen just takes forever to freekin arrive!!

C'mon bwankers just fall on your sword you old stupid duffers

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 20:08 | 1683215 Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

Even in 2008 it took weeks and months for the obvious to unfold.  Bear Stearns went down in March and it wasn't until September that Fannie, Freddie, Countrywide, Lehman, etc. went belly-up:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late-2000s_financial_crisis#Financial_institutions

What's more, even as the collapse unfolded, there wasn't a full panicked response in financial markets until October.

This is what I'm trying to highlight here with my blog on the seasonality of mass panics.  While the pieces are all in place, the timing of the full-fledged panic apparently abides by seasonal parameters.  This has occurred time and time again throughout history, e.g., 1857, 1869, 1873, 1907, 1929, 1939, 1962, 1973, 1987, 1989, 1997, 2001, 2008.  In all of these years the ingredients for the eventual panics came together over months or years, but the acute phase of a break in collective mood and confidence did not strike until the proper seasonal moment in September/October:

http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2011/09/autumn-panic-update-will-civilization.html

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 19:36 | 1683157 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

It is boring as hell. Been eating popcorn for almost 4 years now...

Bored of Trade? Heh heh

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:21 | 1682655 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

perfect timing. fomc tues & wed.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:21 | 1682660 Hammer Time
Hammer Time's picture

protests in amsterdam stock exchange square as well:

 

http://www.at5.nl/gespot/68357/anti-crisis-protest-op-het-beursplein

 

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:22 | 1682661 mkanterm
mkanterm's picture

I have said this before and I reiterate my thesis that either the weaklings are going to be shot out of the Euro in a massively costly Lehman-like event, or, as modern economic theory would predict based on game theory and what not, they would come closer together fiscally and politically, with the EFSF taking the role of an EMF (IMF like institution for the Eurozone), in effect creating a European treasury to issue Euro-bonds, and thus instituting a blue-bond, red-bond plan where x % of a country's financing is European and y% is domestic, thus limiting debt by market rates but at the same time providing a backstop of European credit quality for the majority of debt, implying that the x% would be greater than 50%, probably somewhere near 65-70%.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:25 | 1682671 So Close
So Close's picture

The current hole in your theory is that what the market is pricing Greek debt at is different than the interest they are paying.  It is the resolution of that issue on which everyhing hangs.  Right now the answer is German taxpayers are making up the differance.  Something must give.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:57 | 1682955 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Correct.  We need not wait to hear from Germany that it likes blue and red bond plans.  Neither do we need DSK to tell us that Greece is done.  The market has already spoken.

That politicians pretend it hasn't is simply the extent to which everything becomes more expensive on the way down to nothing.

And those waiting for Ben Bernanke to bail out Europe simply have NO IDEA what is truly going on.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:22 | 1682663 mkanterm
mkanterm's picture

I have said this before and I reiterate my thesis that either the weaklings are going to be shot out of the Euro in a massively costly Lehman-like event, or, as modern economic theory would predict based on game theory and what not, they would come closer together fiscally and politically, with the EFSF taking the role of an EMF (IMF like institution for the Eurozone), in effect creating a European treasury to issue Euro-bonds, and thus instituting a blue-bond, red-bond plan where x % of a country's financing is European and y% is domestic, thus limiting debt by market rates but at the same time providing a backstop of European credit quality for the majority of debt, implying that the x% would be greater than 50%, probably somewhere near 65-70%.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:26 | 1682674 Haole
Haole's picture

That's the longest sentence I've ever seen, twice...

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:31 | 1682702 45north
45north's picture

yeah well it is a long sentence

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:36 | 1682721 oogs66
oogs66's picture

Neither the blue bonds nor the red bonds will work

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:15 | 1682847 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

I feel like I'm in the matrix - blue pill or red pill :)

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 18:03 | 1682973 X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

silver pill

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:48 | 1682759 propflow
propflow's picture

press <HELP> for explanation

 

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:20 | 1682857 Zola
Zola's picture

Exiting the euro for the weaklings will not be costly , it will be salutary. Only a few leveraged banks and crooked politicans will be impacted. The average citizen in the northern countries would have massive boost in purchasing power and the southern countries could start exitig from their weight of debt. Only the media is conditioning you to believe such outcome is "costly"...what is costly is the total failure of the euro in hyperinflation and thankfully the germans will have none of it.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:35 | 1682899 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

It will be costly, and it will be painful, and the effect will go further than the banks and politicians (hint - pension funds and insurance companies, ECB requiring recapitalization.).  It will drag down the Euro, therefore not creating much of a boost in purchasing power.

The other problem is, when the defaults start, there's going to be all sorts of surprises creeping out of the dark, some of which might be very nasty indeed.

However, it is necessary and almost certainly inevitable and only once it happens will the recovery start (no matter how slow and long).

All the attempts to fix the problems are nothing more than delaying tactics by desperate politicians who just don't want it to happen on their watch.


Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:47 | 1682933 silver500
silver500's picture

In the current climate teh Greek government does not have the integrity to issue a new fiat currency.  They can mandate that the Greek people pay taxes in it but will be unable to enforce them to exchange their Euros for New Drachma.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:23 | 1682665 Subprime JD
Subprime JD's picture

Give it time, eventually this market will break to the downside as the Euro crisis is much bigger than subprime mortgages.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:24 | 1682667 Father Lucifer
Father Lucifer's picture

Pixies and leprechauns have announced they will be selling their gold to bail out the EU.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:29 | 1682690 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Using deflationsists logic, the Euro should be rising on this news.  I wonder if Robert Prechter and Mish are long Euros....

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:45 | 1682744 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

deflationistas never do read the writing on the wall ( MENE, MENE, TEKEL, PARSIN ). They may not see the bank bailouts coming but the currency markets always do.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:55 | 1682787 itsonlymoney
itsonlymoney's picture

They have ALL been weighed, and they have ALL been found wanting...

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:14 | 1682842 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Modern day bankers (Belshazzar) can't hold a candle to the grizzled old timers (Nebuchadnezzar). The end of their reign of terror is nigh.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:38 | 1682905 itsonlymoney
itsonlymoney's picture

Won't be long until the seventieth week begins. 

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:30 | 1682695 Hman
Hman's picture

Guess what ... markets will open stocks down, gold up, dollar up, US bonds up  ... The Euro wins the ugliest contest for now..

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:31 | 1682701 unky
unky's picture

Silver down with the Euro, I bet

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:35 | 1682715 Hman
Hman's picture

Naah, it will be 2 x gold to the upside ...

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:43 | 1682742 unky
unky's picture

No, that will happen only when Bernanke prints. And then the Euro will go up too. Then we will see Gold up 1x and Silver up 2x and Euro up 1x maybe.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:38 | 1682906 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

You're right, silver has always followed the euro.

Monday silver will be down. 100% sure.

 

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:52 | 1682947 Hearst
Hearst's picture

Nah.  Safety flight into Gold will tug Silver's reigns.  Both metals are primed to explode.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 18:30 | 1683029 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Gold's got your back for sure, we will see about silver.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 21:22 | 1683376 Jendrzejczyk
Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:42 | 1682739 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yep,  back and forth, back and forth.  The dollar is ugly, the euro is ugly, the dollar is ugly, rinse repeat, fleecing all taxpayers a little bit each time until eventually the central bank can kick the can or the BRICS say enough is enough.  If the BRICS didn't have their own problems they would have thrown the dollar and the euro off the see-saw.  I mean fuck, they built and OWN the playground equipment.

 

Stay ahead of the curve people, the signs were clear on friday. 

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:30 | 1682696 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Bernanke will have lots of room to print with Euro-collapse.  Curously, Rickards and Rogers both said they were long Euros and would buy on collapse.  They expect it to be saved and rebound? How so that?

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:34 | 1682710 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

The theory is that they expect only the strongest european countries to be left using the Euro, so it will be a strong currency once all the weak countries like Greece, Spain et al are tossed out.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:48 | 1682758 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

unless germany leaves and the weak stay.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:37 | 1683549 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

If it collapses to .5000 or below, I'm a buyer.  I still have faith in Germany and *gasp* France.  I can't see them allowing Greece and Portugal to take them down.  

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:34 | 1682711 be-short
be-short's picture

where did you folks get already fx rates? markets are opening 23:15 CET - or not? 

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:35 | 1682717 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

Don't worry the rumour mill will declare Zimbabwe will bailout Europe. Markets will soar on the news.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:39 | 1682733 Hman
Hman's picture

Lool ..

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:38 | 1682728 Skid Marks
Skid Marks's picture

The Swiss are committed to being the front man holding up the Euro. 

This little blip will be erased in just a few seconds once the EU markets open, if not before. Asia might drive it down a little further but that won't matter. If the downside holds until the Swiss have finished their morning coffee then there might be a chance to scalp a few bucks by going long right before they open.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:52 | 1682777 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Love tits as much as the next guy, but I doubt that. I'm seeing 1.35 tested before Ben goes nuclear.

Time will tell.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 19:52 | 1683176 abalone
abalone's picture

Please shower

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:44 | 1682747 kito
kito's picture

Anybody see that new movie "contagion"??? Is it true that trichet has a supporting role in it????

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:45 | 1682749 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

N.S.

Boring. This whole academic elite rule thingy is getting to be a true drag. Can't they find a few competent wanna be kings among the entire group? Do they really need to be a bunch of clueless fucktards? Inbreeding? is that it? I'm about to toss the towel and consider Capitalism. Desperate? Perhaps. But for the love of it all this central planning has become rather chaotic. Not nearly as swimmingly swell as advertised.

 

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:50 | 1682768 be-short
be-short's picture

Worth to watch on ARD right now (German Televison): political discussion about todays results in BERLIN and support for GREECE. Feat FDP, SPD ... very good.

 

 

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:51 | 1682772 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Cover short at open and buy some longs. Sell longs at midday and start shorting again.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 16:56 | 1682786 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Rickards: "For now, QE3 is still off the table. But if the euro weakens and China re-pegs to the dollar as a result, that is the signal for more QE. It’s hard to know how this will play out, but at least we know what to look for. If you want to see QE3 ahead of the market, watch the euro."

 

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:05 | 1682805 AssFire
AssFire's picture

I am just a simple engineer but this is how I see it:

A bunch of countries playing cards with real money. Soon one loses, but all agree they want to keep the game going so, they start writing IOU's... Well, the IOU's start flowing back and forth and are created out of thin air... Years later no country can cash out their IOU because the money does not exist and to do so would cause a cascade failure.

I mean it is clear to me.

How do you guys make a living doing this shit? You realize something must be manufactured for money to be made, yet you all claim to "make" money by fucking off in a corrupt casino?


Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:22 | 1682854 fdisk
fdisk's picture

Dude, most people's problem is that they think it's much easier to play market day to day, then just been an Engineer or whoever.. Well, try it and let me know, if that's the case and don't blame people who's trying to make any money anywhere.. Perhaps most of them prefer good job, but chance to get one getting thinner every day.. Some folks have no chance but try to make any kind of profit on Forex or Stock Market to pay bills, some of them with very little funds to play with.. It's much easier to dig a hole on the street, or learn roofing or siding, whatever it is and get paid on time.. Just try to trade your own money and you'll find out how "easy" it is. IMHO.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:45 | 1682927 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

You missed the point entirely.

Real weath is only created by one of three methods- the mining or harvesting or raw materials, transportation, or the refining of raw materials into finished goods.

Investment is (or at least, used to be) only a supporting structure.  It was intended to be a method by which capital could be accumulated into pools large enough to create or support endeavors that produce real wealth.  Since the markets have become manipulated and taken over by HFT algos, that function is now broken.

The point is that markets are no longer tools for accumulation of capital for the improvement of the manufacturing, mining and transportation base- they are simply casinos where money is shuffled around at lightning speed.  Nobody is claiming that investing in these markets is easy- the point is that investors are not, and never have been, "making" money.  Investors just accumulate money.

And, for what it's worth, I can tell from your post that you would be incapable of "just been an Engineer or whoever.." That street runs both ways.  An engineer is far more likely to be a sucessful trader than a trader is likely to be able to take on an engineering project.  

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 18:25 | 1683016 chistletoe
chistletoe's picture

real wealth is created by exactly one method:

 

providing a service to others.

 

Just think about the oldest profession and why it continues unabated today.....

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:52 | 1682946 AssFire
AssFire's picture

I lied to myself and invested in the irrational exuberance tech bubble. I knew it was all hype money and I still did it. Nope, I learned my lesson and would never try to play a fixed game. Indexed for inflation against gold the market is shit for returns right? I guess most of you guys went to college and chose to do what you do. It seems a bizare way to be made or broke.. I can't see the the juice is worth the squeeze. Not to be a dick, but I think I would find something more tangable and rewarding in life.

 

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 18:04 | 1682968 DollarDive
DollarDive's picture

Just a thought......but all the projects that you "Engineer" in your tangible existence wouldn't be sold or financed without the capital markets.  You should be thankful that traders want to take the other side, and put their family jewels on the line each and every day - more than you'd ever be thinking of trading in a lifetime, I'm sure..  Traders keep you in business.  

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 18:23 | 1683011 AssFire
AssFire's picture

At some point the market ceased to be a place where money was invested long term and actually did build capital projects etc. But paying extra for nano second for HFT and all the insider info going on...It is kinda sleezy now.

I know you guys want to feel like you contribute but seeing there are no rules or punishments, I don't think you are putt your jewels out there.. are certainly not for me but profit.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:14 | 1683496 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

That is, or at least used to be, correct- and I said as much.

But, manufacturing does not move in fractions of seconds.  HFT has broken that fundimental support structure- traders no longer put their balls on the line to back anything real, they are just working to outwit other traders- like a high-stakes poker game, or a game of chicken.

Trying to take a moral high ground about how the markets back up the real world is a fool's task these days.  The fundimentals have become meaningless, and performing senseless pump and dumps that last a second is not providing capital to anyone but traders.

For the market to have a moral place, it needs to return to it's original function- where investors purchase shares of stocks and hold partial ownership in companies for a period of time in return for dividends.  When the fundimentals change, for instance, demand begins to dry up, a competitor begins to gain market share, or a new CEO who does not merit the faith of the stockholders is installed, that is the time to sell the position and move the capital to another vehicle.  Not this shit where positions are held for fractions of seconds, and mean nothing to anyone- that is not investing, it is merely harvesting cash.

You are right- the projects we engineer will not be sold or financed without the capital markets.  And that is a big part of what is happening right now.  Most cannot get capital, and the ones that can are being ground beneith the proverbial steamroller as the capital markets forget that the world of tangible goods does not and cannot keep pace with the speed of electronic commerce.

Again, I am not saying that traditional trading is parasitical or bad for commerce and manufacturing- I am pointing at the HFT algos that broke the market and turned it into a meaningless casino.  While you may think they are still doing their job, they are not.  You can have all the money in the world, but what good will it do you when the people who design and build your private jet are forced to take shortcuts and miss critical design flaws in reviews because you expect to have the things you want right now, and set your electronic wolves to strip-mine any company that does not meet your childish demands?

How will this situation help you when the bridge you are driving on collapses, because the company that built the road had to do it in one-third of the time it actually takes to do it right, and opens the thing before the concrete is set?  Will your money make you feel better when you lose the use of your legs after a routine surgery because the stress tests for the instrument in the surgeon's hand took too long, were too costly for the markets, and were summarily skipped?  Will your cash hold your hair back as you vomit when you eat food that was poisoned because a hydrolic line broke on a piece of farm equipment, and the farmer sold his wheat anyways- knowing full well that if his corporate masters were not pleased this quarter, he would be discarded like trash?

The market used to be a vital part of the system- now it is killing it.  That may not be the fault of any one trader, and I am certainly not claiming to know what you trade, or how you trade it.  For all I know, you're one of the good ones.  If you are, make some noise, before it's too late for all of us, and we're back to senseless barter.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 20:05 | 1683207 DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

I'm an engineer, one of the best.  I worked hard, saved hard, started and ran two companies.  Now, I'm tired, but still need to pay the bills.  Not too many choices at the moment - so I trade, and yes, it's hard, and yes, it's easier coming from engineering, having watched zillions of 'scope traces and looked at at least that many charts.

To start and run a company, almost any sort, you have to be "on fire' - making it "go" has to be your every waking thought and most of your dreams, and you'd better not sleep much at all.  Try that when you hit 60.

I have a small stake (some people would call it large of course).  I can spend it at poverty living standards and run out at age 70 (assuming I get SS too and don't need medical for much of anything).  Or, I can trade and try to keep out of the principle and live by eating what I kill.  Yes, it's hard, but I'm moderately successful at it and it's a lot better than sitting watching TV.  If I wasn't getting some return, I'd have to give up a lot of things, including my fusion research (self funded).  Trading by itself may not create much if any value, but what about what you do with the results?  Sure, some blow them on hookers and blow, I'm well past that point (had my fun already).

I was running a software consultancy/product development firm during the tech bubble.  Hell, we all knew, all engineers knew it was a fake bubble.  There were signs all over.  Anyone awake even noticed the joos on NPR going well, get out, this is stupid, then later going, well this time it's different and I'm losing out -- how much louder does it have to be shouted from the rooftops for someone to get it.  I got out, my customers, warned by me, got out, we lost dick -- we were paying attention.

I was perhaps in a somewhat information priveledged place - we had a great reputation on tech, and customers coming out of the woodwork.  When you see three in a row who have no business plan, a poorly formed vision, VC money burning a hole in their pockets, no market research, but they're coming to you saying if you'll just make the mousetrap I've envisioned real, we'll all be rich.  The clincher is when you offer to take half the offered money - but in cash, not options or stock.  The look in their eyes tells all at that point, and I started warning my more responsible customers with big portfolios it was time to get out.  I'm owed some giant favors on that one (and I'm not worried about collecting -- golden rule, what goes around...)

Sound like you weren't so "lucky".  Sigh, you probably bought a buncha "to the moon Alice" and sat back -- you succumbed to greed and thought that hey, heres a way to set and forget and make money without work and paying attention.  The fall didn't happen in one day, you know.  You screwed yourself, don't blame it on this and that, you weren't paying attention, or you were listening to a sell side broker -- obviously stupid.  You sure you're an engineer?

You can win at poker even if the dealer cheats, as long as you're not the main target.  Being small and nimble, you can even out-trade the Goldmans of the planet.  They can't make a big move without dragging the market.  I can buy or sell a million bucks in one trade and move the market....not at all.  So can they, but to them that's pocket change and thre's no point.  They have to lumber, I can sprint.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:54 | 1683575 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

Best of luck to you- and I mean that.  

60 yr old engineers are not the people that drove this train off the tracks, and if you can manage to protect or grow your wealth in this minefield, I'm not going to fault you for it.  

I got burned hard in the tech bubble, but my excuse was that I was 20 years old when it all came down.  It wasn't so much the money I lost- that was a fairly small amount, it was the loss of time that really hurt.  I had been spending more time learning the the ins and outs of programming to get some skin in the game than I was at my day job, and when it all fell down and the jobs moved to India, it was a big shit sandwich to swallow.

Burned again in 2007-2008.  I didn't really participate in the real-estate bubble, but I was building a thriving side-hustle making custom furniture and selling it in Florida and California.  Had half of my net worth tied up in finished goods I was never paid for, and now I'm sitting on $60k worth of tools that just sit idle for lack of customers.  Good thing I paid cash for them, or I would have been one of the foreclosed.  The 401k I was not allowed to close took a huge hit, too.

So, fuck 'em, and take the cash if you can.  You know you're not "making" money, and you're not trying to justify it. My beef isn't with retail investors- it's with the daytrading pros and the "too big to fails."

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:42 | 1682913 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"something must be manufactured for money to be made"

 

While I WISH this was the case, what fucking world are you living in?  Almost 20% of America's GDP is now "financial products".  Electronic paper chasing electronic paper, all make believe horseshit, but many people living high on the hog as a result.  I know two who have very REAL houses in Deer Valley and I sometimes visit for a week or two and have a REALly good time. Not defending their unsustainable ways, BUT reality is what you make it dude.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:48 | 1682939 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

It is the case, and always will be.

Papering over facts does not change them- we stopped making things as a nation, and look where it's getting us.  The harvesting function that is creating oligarchs is just people snatching up the fruits of past production.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:58 | 1682958 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Until the fruit is gone anyway.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 18:00 | 1682964 AssFire
AssFire's picture

If your reality is not fake it will not come crashing down on you. I had to take business classes that preached the  Keynesian bullshit yo speak of , knew it was crap then I learned what I suspected as truth, Austrian Economics. So lots of people like you really think you are "making money"?

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 20:06 | 1683210 DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

They're not creating wealth, but they are getting money from others.  Use the language properly -- most disagreements here hinge on stupid misuse of the best language there is.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 21:57 | 1683465 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

AF,

The days of financials and services are drawing to an end....as all of the 'wealth' that had been created in the past that had been sliced, diced, packaged, collateralized, fractionated, etc, is gone! as soon as this old fianancial system collapses and a new one is in place, things will certainly revert back to the way they should be....

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:02 | 1682813 pauldia
pauldia's picture

The Three words you will hear very frequently in the months to come,from both Bankers,Politicians,and Hedge Fund Managers.......

 

http://old.news.yahoo.com/s/dailycaller/20110918/pl_dailycaller/rahmemanuelonsolyndraidontremember

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:02 | 1682815 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

New day... new situation... new rules - it never changes!

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:08 | 1682827 TheLooza
TheLooza's picture

Obviously I add nothing to the conversation, but i was trolling through the ZH archives from as little as a year ago and was shocked at the high quality of comments.  Wonder where those comment level contributors disappeared to.

I'm neg repping this post.  Feel free to do the same.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:25 | 1682850 razorthin
razorthin's picture

I've noticed the same, having been around the entire span.  I suspect that there is little left to offer in the way of rational commentary.  Given the escalating hubris exhibited by the elitist world owners, we've been reduced to animal spirits.  But not in a good way.  We are now more inclined to shoot first and ask questions never.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:30 | 1682883 TheLooza
TheLooza's picture

probably right.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:30 | 1682884 TheLooza
TheLooza's picture

Or it could just be that this forum has been overrun by losers like me for whom keeping up is like an overmatched cowboy trying to ride a fiercely bucking bronco.  Adding substantively is out of the question. 

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:42 | 1682917 gwar5
gwar5's picture

I think ZH has gotten to be wildly popular and is a must see site. Good for Tyler!  Unfortunately, members of the "Organization to Protect the Staus Quo" are also in attendance and trying to do what their name would suggest. 

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:41 | 1682914 Waffen
Waffen's picture

I wasnt around reading daily comments like I am today.  However, considering that we have been in a continuous holding pattarn for so long, perhaps there really is nothing of substance to add?

We all(those that understand human nature) know this will end in hyperinflation, the question is when, and this is the rub, no one knows and can accuractly speculate as to when this thing is gonna blow up.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:09 | 1682831 fdisk
fdisk's picture

So? Why equity pumped up into the FRI close and why PM's

got under pressure lately? Should markets drop big now and then

majesty Bernank save everyone by Wednesday?

Let's watch..

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:13 | 1682840 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

POLITICS!!! WATCH WHT THEY DO NOT WHT THEY SAY/ PROMISE!! BENJIE HAS NO POLITICAL "MANDATE" TO PRINT JUST YET AND SO HE WON'T!

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:15 | 1682845 Jasper M
Jasper M's picture

I, for one, am not the Least bit bored.
Rather enjoying it. Like the rerun of an especially good episode of my favorite show.
". . . oh, oh, here it comes, I Love this part!"

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:15 | 1682849 steveo
steveo's picture

Called Euro short on Aug 28th, since then it fell 8%
This was a near perfect call.  8% is a major move for a major currency.

Here is the today, before and after charts.   Euro opened down huge.   I have ES short only, it should profit from the Euro tank.

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2011/09/called-euro-short-on-aug-28th-si...

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:35 | 1682888 fdisk
fdisk's picture

"Called Euro short on Aug 28th, since then it fell 8%" I don't like "I told you so" type of Analysis AFTER the FACT.! Would you post the same sh*t if EUR opens up 200 pips higher instead? Stop Posting results after the fact.. Tell us before.. Getting sick of this tactics. That's is why most ANALysts upgrading All time highs and downgrading all time lows.. What else you short or long???

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:23 | 1682865 H H Henry P P P...
H H Henry P P P Paulson's picture

I hate these gap downs.  They always get filled during normal trading hours.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 18:21 | 1683009 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

So if you know they are getting filled why not go long the /es and make some money? Than you short again mid-day and prosper

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:33 | 1683541 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

Because it's like Schrödinger's cat.

I've seen the same thing, but you know as well as I do that the minute anyone who is not part of the club tries to cash on any given move, it will change.  There's no fundimental reason for this to be happening, and trying to daytrade this shit is going to leave you in the poorhouse.

Like I said above, the goal of the market is no longer to provide capital to enterprises, it is to take what you have.  If you're extremely flexible, nimble and above all, lucky, have at it.  Better for anyone who isn't to sit this one out.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 17:40 | 1682910 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

It's just down to the dollar. Not exactly a reference....

 

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 18:00 | 1682961 silver500
silver500's picture

Ok, Im joining the bid at 1.3666

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 18:04 | 1682975 MS7
MS7's picture

Don't worry about being bored. This story is going to get much more interesting.

As you reported yesterday or the day before, there are accusations that the ruling party artificially inflated, under pressure by Eurostat, its deficit in order to justify its austerity measures (to "shock" the people into submission) and to fall into the welcoming claws of the IMF. If there is an investigation and if this is true, the government will be tried for treason.

The government will fight with everything it has to keep the story out of the limelight (not too hard when the media is in their pocket, but still...). I believe that they will try to create another event that is shocking so as to take attention away. That's why the PM cancelled his trip to the US.

Of course there is the chance that the accusations are not valid. But I consider it highly likely that it is true because the opposition party, which so far has been careful in not making any over the top accusations, is asking for an investigation.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 18:42 | 1683050 Frankie Carbone
Frankie Carbone's picture

I also see the same old same old in the futures markets. 

On the weekend news, the DOW, the Q's, and the SPX all gap down massively at the 6 PM opening of the futures. 

Then of course, immediately start to retrace the gap down down as if God himself willed the futures market to gravitate to infinity. 

Same shit, same results. Like fucking Groundhog Day. Also, keep an eye on those futures when you wake up in the morning. Between 2 am and 4 am, some very eager buyers will step in and massively blast the indices into the stratosphere. Hell, the DOW futures themselves just love to ramp 100-400 points in the hours of 2-4 am everytime they start out shitty the night before. 

Hell, it's happening again, today. Gap down, gravitation attractor kicks in that drives them positive within hours. 

Shocker. 

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 20:31 | 1683269 msmith
msmith's picture

The USD Index price action seems to be turning higher and could return to it bullish trend.  The USD should impact other markets.  An interesting Full Market analysis is available here http://bit.ly/p8WB9s

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 20:51 | 1683317 Pinktip
Pinktip's picture

Paraphrase Lindsey Williams >10 months ago.....

"When the Euro collapses, you have 2-3wks to get your money out the bank (US)"

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:45 | 1683564 Frankie Carbone
Frankie Carbone's picture

DCFuser. As a fellow engineer, I can immediately tell that you're not bullshitting about being an engineer. As soon as you said you were one of the best, I knew you were an engineer (folks, we're a very cocky breed of people - for better or worse, it just is). Thankfully, you didn't say that you were the best. Otherwise, I'd have to take you to task for that title. ;)

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 00:32 | 1683690 jdelano
jdelano's picture

My company employs more than two dozen engineers and Frequently partners with multinationals like cdm and aecom. I can assure you the best engineers that I work with are also the most diffident and unassuming of the bunch. They mind the details and grunt work while the cocky ones preen and try to take the credit.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 23:43 | 1683634 Frankie Carbone
Frankie Carbone's picture

+1 418, Couldn't agree more.

 

I would like to add that I too was in the thick of the tech bubble as a mid-level engineer when the gravy was flowing and my colleagues and myself were all shaking our heads in disbelief over what was going on. 

Unbelievably though, even though most of my engineering staff were intimately aware that a massive tech bubble was in the works, most were trading the hell out of it - very very amatuerishly so, they are engineers, not dedicated traders, and being a whizbang at mathematics and analysis, while a requirement for good traders, is NOT sufficient in itself- thinking that they could get out before getting burned. 

I'd say most of them got burned, and burned badly. 

I have witnessed two things that consistently cause smart folks to do some of the most stupid things: Sex, and money. 

Without fail. 

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