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EURUSD Opens Lower

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Hardly the apocalypse scenario that the G20 and Nicholas Sarkozy predicted, but certainly not a ringing endorsement of European cohesion and stability. If this melts up in the Sunday futures session, we fully expect it to be due to ongoing FX repatriation by French banks.

Drifting lower:

 

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Sun, 10/23/2011 - 14:02 | 1802247 knight99
knight99's picture

if they dont come up with something by Wednesday EVEN the market will stop believing the BS they keep saying.

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 14:10 | 1802271 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

The market doesn´t believe squat, they just follow the heard and waits for the bigger fool. I doubt any serious traders believe this will be fixed...

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 14:16 | 1802286 TheLooza
TheLooza's picture

follow "the heard."  Nice pun in this rumor driven insane mrkt.

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 16:47 | 1802570 mfoste1
mfoste1's picture

uhh this is called a pump and dump.....exactly why the market is rallying on vapor volume, no one is buying, theyre just selling. just wait till the fat lady sings and everyone tries to head for the exits at the same time. wheeeeeee! it aint time yet, but it IS coming soon.

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 14:17 | 1802290 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Exactly. Its about predicting the direction the herd move in, not your own belief of what way it should (even when you are correct on the fundamentals).

As much as I despise Keynes, he was spot on in using this allegory to explain it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 14:29 | 1802309 css1971
css1971's picture

Which is why technical analysis works and fundamental analysis doesn't.

And why I won't be renewing my eurusd short until I hear the screams.

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 21:22 | 1803139 fswalker
fswalker's picture

You shouldn't mention T/A on ZH. Dont you know the market is being driven by algos gone mad and no one actually makes consistent money here

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 19:57 | 1802983 i root for that...
i root for that fat jersey governor's picture

situation no worse than last week. if the market can rally last Friday on the bullshit from EU, it can do the same Monday. The reality is people already knew no magic solution from EU. It doesn't matter - as long as the money being printed and rescue is being made, the market could go up straight.

Plus data released from Japan just now is not too bad.

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 14:03 | 1802251 knukles
knukles's picture

I'll take diseased scrotums for $100, Alex.

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 14:10 | 1802253 X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

MUST...HOLD IT....TOGETHER....TILL WEDSDAY....

UNTIL OUR CHECKS CLEAR.....

MUST...

p.s. are these trolls, for the last couple days, trying to destory these threads...with just printing the same thing over and over.....

i think we called it jamming....

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 14:05 | 1802258 oogs66
oogs66's picture

i'm surprised it is opening this strongly

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 16:27 | 1802538 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Noone trading it yet besides some programs, when the sales force steps in for the day, most of the big volume is moved there anyway

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 14:06 | 1802262 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

The TD's know shit that I can't even dream of. I get that. And yet my expectation based on what I have been observing for the last several months is that USD is going to make a hard dive. The short squeeze play in EUR & JPY VS. USD is just to juicy a target. Obviously anything is possible but I expect that USD/JPY may drop to 70 or below and EUR/USD might for real hit 1.50 before the reverse. The pigmen who run this show would make a killing off of it.

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 14:11 | 1802274 maxw3st
maxw3st's picture

And those of us who short at 1.50 will do even better.

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 16:05 | 1802495 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Likely.

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 19:10 | 1802900 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

I wouldn't bet against the USD except in the short term. I think it will be (or they intend it to be) Last Fiat Standing when the dust clears.  the Euro seems much shakier, if only because it does not have a single lock step government CB and Treasury behind it. 

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 14:11 | 1802273 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Latest coming out..

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/10/23/dutch-finmin-efsf-can-be-swallo...

"“…Jan Kees de Jager, the Dutch finance minister, told colleagues: “We’ve got to get real. People are talking about new defences but with one gulp the whole €440 billion could be gone, leaving the eurozone with no protection at all.”"

"Also of note: The article goes on to say that the IMF refuses to fund their part of the bailout unless the banks take 50% haircuts on their Greek debt. All voluntarily, of course."

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 14:12 | 1802277 maxw3st
maxw3st's picture

French banks aren't doing all that well these days. It can't be too long before they run out of money to repatriate.

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 14:14 | 1802282 Sheens Liver
Sheens Liver's picture

Still trying to polish turds.

 

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 14:15 | 1802284 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

This will look great @ < 1.000

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 14:16 | 1802285 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Another agreement will be reached....which won't do squat. The underlying problem, which is the collapse in domestic economy in Greece et al, cannot be repaired until default and complete clearing of all debt. This is the problem that no one will address. 

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 16:09 | 1802504 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Its the problem that all serious players ignore because it means squat. Cheaper to float Greece than meet reality.

Greece is a small can toy in EUR.

We are talking GLOBAL young man! ONE PISSANT NATION IS A JOKE TO US.

FUCK THEM.

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 17:10 | 1802624 dpr10
dpr10's picture

yeah yeah greece is small..what greece stands for my friend, that is where you miss the point..I wanna hear you saying the same thing about France first and then others...dont hold yor breath waiting for that 1.5 btw;;))

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 14:23 | 1802300 max2205
max2205's picture

So Xle xlb xhb xlf IWM up 30% in 3 weeks. Let's make it 60% before the SHTF

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 14:35 | 1802319 Belarus
Belarus's picture

Well, the market already needs to fall 17% just to reach Oct. 4 levels. Meanwhile, during this whole run-up, there hasn't been a SINGLE ounche of credible news in Europe or anywhere else for that matter.

Said otherwise, long uncertainty/short reality. Reality doesn't set in until France or Italy or Spain yields truly start going parabolic or banks truly begin to dominio (but they won't anytime soon as the DO begin getting recaps) or the economy clearly starts to deteriote.

Until then, the rest is ALL NOISE. Trust me, my time spent studying the EU fiasco has been a huge waste of time. The only thing that matters is the plebls perception, which is fed my MSM, which won't be affected until one of the scenarios listed avove begin to transpire.

 

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 16:00 | 1802488 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Well, the market already needs to fall 17% just to reach Oct. 4 levels...

 

I take it math is not your strong suit.

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 14:38 | 1802326 SilverCoinLover
SilverCoinLover's picture

Strange, but I can't find SHTF anywhere as a stock or ETF symbol. You would think it would be in use by now.

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 16:03 | 1802491 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

sh

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 14:25 | 1802303 Belarus
Belarus's picture

Yup, the big YAWN. With no major agreement, just talks of said agrreements due out the 26th, expect little action in the EUR/USD. Yet by the end of the week, expect another run-up in stocks as the markets REJOICE over some band-aid plan that will surely come out.

Don't short until the market slowys wakes up to reality. Rembmer, ZH is far ahead of percpetion here. Most American's don't think more than two seconds a year about this shit. 

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 14:26 | 1802304 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

You know that the USD is complete worthless junk when it can't even get a hard-on against the dead as a dodo EUR.

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 15:26 | 1802425 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

More and more likely, flight to quality may be gone forever.

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 16:20 | 1802521 Stuart
Stuart's picture

EUR vs Dollar... Death by firing squad vs. lethal injection...

 

 

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 14:47 | 1802341 UnclePen
UnclePen's picture

The darkest hour is just before everything goes black forever....

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 15:10 | 1802394 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

Watch the gold takedown or at least $100;  since in her extreme PMS moment, Blythe will figure this is great for the USD; contagion be damned.

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 15:16 | 1802402 SilverDoctors
SilverDoctors's picture

EUR/USD opens lower...yet Merrill has just announced it expects a 2nd downgrade of US debt by early December.

Fleeing the disintigrating euro for the perceived safety of the dollar is like jumping from the oven into the fireplace.
The only safe haven currencies remaining are gold and silver.

 

http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 15:50 | 1802468 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Stop pimping your blog on someone else's traffic.

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 16:39 | 1802551 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

What the fuck is an oven doing near a fireplace?! That seems incredibly dangerous... and stupid.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 04:16 | 1803617 Which is worse ...
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists's picture

It's normal when there is fire everywhere. That's a place called hell. 

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 15:16 | 1802407 St. Deluise
St. Deluise's picture

this non-hyperbolic sunday ZH post about a lower eur/usd would have me extremely worried if i was long.

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 15:28 | 1802432 twotraps
twotraps's picture

great comment "long uncertainty and short reality'.    I have tried to make sense of it and come up with scenarios and I keep returning to the idea that again and again we come up with outcomes and consider taking action based off the facts we know, and normal associated consequences of those facts/situations.  However, governments continue to surprise with new rules and huge cash to cover the problems.  So, what else can there be other than huge rule changes and big tax money once again stupidly allocated.  Otherwise its total insolvency....am I missing something here?  

 

One thing,  wouldn't it be possible for TPTB to actually capitalize on a sharp correction in the mkts?   They might feel a renewed sense of purpose and use the correction to lay on the regulations etc.  They would also be able to say '...see, we don't control the mkts, prices are free to move bla bla bla...'  Just a thought.   

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 15:34 | 1802442 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

You will see: the makets have already priced in the Wednesday nothing will be decided. No collapse. You know.

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 15:59 | 1802481 dereksatkinson
dereksatkinson's picture

I think more importantly is the fact that there seems to be a willingness to expand current treaties.  If europe ends up becoming a fiscal union along with a monetary union, a lot of the problems would be fixed.

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 16:22 | 1802522 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

A more centralized union would reveal many redundancies in the governing system. That is, many politicians and bureaucrats would become obsolete. Good luck convincing politicians to vote for their own job destruction. I'd like to think it's a sovereignty issue, but if Europeans (citizens or politicians alike) cared about sovereignty they wouldn't have allowed the union to begin with.

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 15:59 | 1802483 user2011
user2011's picture

Well, as long as the HFT keep pushing the S&P up,  the Euro will be squeezed higher.   Risk on !!   

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 16:00 | 1802487 reload
reload's picture

Lunch today with friends, they do not care about this euro debase, insolvent banks, bankrupt sovereigns and the onslaught of anti democratic beaurocracy. This is a bunch of fairly successful, business owning 1 per enters- some with wealthy wives, but all self made. Not a banker or lawyer among them, they seemed (to me) unbelievably I'll informed and overconfident that this is "no big deal"

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 16:11 | 1802505 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

What's their age? Idiot Boomers who lived through the Carter years think they've seen it all. It could never possible be worse than that. Reality is going to be a bitch for them.

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 16:52 | 1802584 reload
reload's picture

Average age probably sub 45ish.

All decently educated - but not Oxford/Cambridge types. None have really used much leverage in the building of their businesses (all are debt free - including main residence) but they have all used leverage to play the property `game` and perhaps to a lesser extent with other investments. Most have some rental property in holiday resorts - france - the Alps -spain etc which may carry some debt.

I would say they are all natural optimists, as most who manage to build a durable business are. They concentrate on worrying about stuff they have some control over.

Being in horticulture I worry a lot about the weather - which I have no control over! But I also worry about the out of control banker/political class, and today I was in a minority of one on that.   

 

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 17:08 | 1802618 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

The only ones worried about the banks are the bankers themselves, and rightfully so. I agree with your friends.

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 17:47 | 1802739 Arius
Arius's picture

me too....nothing to worry about...we always make it...

it reminds me of Poles attending the Warsaw opera dismissing the news Hitler just crossed the border as nonsense...yeah well...thats people .... cant blame them really...

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 17:14 | 1802632 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

A farmer is frequently devastated by weather, but without him, the world wouldn't exist. No offense, but your friends sound like typical jackasses. They play it safe in real estate while the real heroes sacrifice everything in productive businesses like agricultural. Guess who they'll come to when the system breaks, begging for a handout. I had friends like that once and I ditched them.

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 16:13 | 1802511 bmwm395
bmwm395's picture

I thought the FX market opens at 5:00 EST

 

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 16:32 | 1802550 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Interbank trading is done all weekend and electronic starts ~830BST

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 16:54 | 1802586 bmwm395
bmwm395's picture

thanks

 

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 17:55 | 1802758 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Got a link for these indexes that we can use to monitor these currency moves?

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 21:48 | 1803171 smiler03
smiler03's picture

Somebody posted this one on ZH. I like it but I know nothing.

http://www.sgxniftydowfutureslive.com/index_files/DOWFUTURES.htm

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 16:35 | 1802555 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Thought you (k)new?

Banks do it even Sundays...

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 16:24 | 1802530 ivars
ivars's picture

This was a productive weekend!

I think I finally managed to match them!

Now I have a really superb forecasting /history study interest tool . Have a look at exercise behind matching GREAT DEPRESSION and GREAT RECESSION timelines for the first time ( once  I managed to patternalize ( ?) OUT FED's grip on USA stock market prices)  and, as usual, better visibility charts plus explanations here:

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&p=34732#p34730

And here:

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&p=34732#p34732

The supplement chart for rereading the history of GREAT DEPRESSION and rethinking the future as time line can be extended as well:

http://farm7.static.flickr.com/6055/6273870574_8de9d22b08_o.png

http://farm7.static.flickr.com/6217/6273870954_52bd042a99_o.png

http://farm7.static.flickr.com/6232/6273871980_62a22ec234_o.png

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 16:33 | 1802552 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Sorry Ivars, -1. Why post something that others have already presented here?

"matching GREAT DEPRESSION and GREAT RECESSION timelines for the first time"... it's old news pal.

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 16:38 | 1802564 xcehn
xcehn's picture

Even those players who have cultivated a resistant strain of DENIAL must be mired in troubling DOUBTS at this juncture.  How long can China backstop the lowly Euro without accelerating their own demise?  How long before the bank runs ignite all the fuses?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/four-reasons-china-betting-europe-and-w...

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 16:42 | 1802568 huggy_in_london
huggy_in_london's picture

Repatriation?  When banks buy foreign assets they do not run the fx position.  Thats not how it works.  They all have local ccy funding operations.  If they sell usd assets, the reduce thier usd funding requirement.  Its got nothing to do with the spot fx market.  

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 16:44 | 1802572 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

They already have the answer. 2x depreciation of the currency. They just don't want people rioting when the answer is implemented. The cops are tired.

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 16:59 | 1802593 zerozam
zerozam's picture

BOHICA!

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 17:20 | 1802647 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

EURUSD breaks 1.40s, everyone is wrong footed, once again.

Unicorns on cocaine, er I mean pixie dust.

Risk on.

Now I know why they made sure that Pomo ryhmes with MOMO.

It defies the intelligence but as the saying goes, better lucky than smart.

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 17:58 | 1802764 chump666
chump666's picture

You are looking at a meltup on Asia's session IMO.  Equities should be slaughtered mid week, possibly a rangy session on Monday.  No one is fooled by Europe.  It's gone.  At some point in the week if we get copper destruction again.  The market will start to sell into lower trading ranges.

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 20:53 | 1803096 chirobliss
chirobliss's picture

End of month boys n girls.  Don't get caught on the wrong side of the squeeze.

And don't ferget to save a pretzel fer the gas jets...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BhDhDRvHaGs

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 20:53 | 1803100 sheep92
sheep92's picture

don't count on copper destruction.  the tell was the thursday selloff while fcx held in strong.   many blew out their commodity exposure end of sept.  the shorts in that sector are going to feel pressure very soon.

if china is going to buy some euro crap paper u can be sure they are going to contribute on the 'real' side by taking their foot off the brakes on their own economy.  industrial metals could get a very big kick.

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 20:22 | 1803039 msmith
msmith's picture

The EURUSD is likely to close the gap soon and head to higher levels this week.  The SPX is pointing to higher levels this week as the DX is inversely moving to lower levels.  The "rIsk on" tone is expected to continue this week.  http://bit.ly/q2Vjrx

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