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EURUSD Opens Sub 1.27 And 11 Year Low Against JPY
After a weekend of dreary headlines, downbeat newspaper articles, and perhaps more realism that the euro-zone's 17-nation glory-fest just won't make it, EURUSD has opened under 1.27. EURJPY is also holding well under 98, printing at 97.38 earlier - its lowest since mid December 2000. It appears that EUR is increasingly replacing JPY as the carry currency of choice.
EURUSD < 1.2700.
EURJPY <98 and at December 2000 levels
Charts: Bloomberg
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Parody, bitchez!!!
And parity (soon), too, bitchez.
I can just smell the pending EUR Cern9000 Printer getting a nice, warm coat of prepatory lube.
Devaluation of the EUR on a relative basis is the only option left if their goal is to hold the EU together (though I always love to hear alternative methods that could accomplish this not based on psychotropically induced dreams).
Bernank will pop a blood vessel in his cranium if the € is back at 1.18 let alone parity.
I'll bite.
Will Bernank really thwart the only possible way to keep the EU and its banks capitalized, given the consequences of the sooner-rather-than-later consequences of an EU implosion?
That depends; will he be able to hold equtie up? He wants to hold it above $11k (DOW) so if it goes down past that he will need to issue QE X which will move oil to $150 and then everyone will look stupid. It's lose/lose for all CBs now, so basically we are about to witness the last acts of desperate men.
The other side of that coin is what happens to equities if the EU implodes.
By my admittedly limited imagination, I just can't make a bullish case for equities in such an event, and my limited analytical abilities suggest that even a very ugly USD could get an unstoppable super-surge, especially given the geopolitical backdrop of today.
(Many have posited a scenario where there'd be a grand explosion in the value of the USD, and a deflationary collapse, before any coordinated restructuring of the global currency markets can lead to reflation)
(Many have posited a scenario where there'd be a grand explosion in the value of the USD, and a deflationary collapse, before any coordinated restructuring of the global currency markets can lead to reflation)
That's how I see it playing out. Could be wrong, but I think the magnitude of the toxic debt is such that it can't be reflated without a deflationary collapse first.
Pay your money, take your chances.
I'm with ya. The USD will be king again very soon. Then and only then will interest rate begin to rise and banks resume with their irresponsible lending.
Be careful saying such blasphemy here on ZH, it appears that very few people in the comments section of this website understand the concept of debt deflation. I cannot reconcile how people can be bullish on commodities (oil,gold,silver) while at the same time the greatest deleveraging since the 1930's is already happening all around us. Can you say lemmings?
Deleveraging was possible in the 1930's in part because the capital cost for delivering energy was getting cheaper/better. Not true now. Besides, wake the fuck up, NO ONE is delevering in the tradiational sense. Insolvent entities are levering even more to bailout other insolvent entities, where the fuck have you been.
IF delevering were really happening DEBT would be getting wiped out and the real cost for survival would be going down, where's oil again? Have you checked the natural gas bill lately. I can't name ONE public utility that has gotten cheaper. Another fucking sheeple who fails to see that TPTB have simply changed the rules regarding what counts on the inflationary scale. Home values are going down BUT no one is buying in part due to bank that refuse to sell at the cheaper prices because 1) that would hurt their bullshit books (mark to fantasy is still very much in play) and 2) they want to make BIG loans so that they can collect more excessive usury. I know of two properties that the bank had buyers for, but refuse to sell becuase the buyer had mostly cash and would only need a loan for $40,000 or less.
What a fucking tool, wake the fuck up, if we had a REAL deflationary/deleveraging cycle numerous banks/brokerages and other financial institution/paper-pushing fucknuts would be out of work. If anything debt is being monetized at an ever increasing rate (thanks ZIRP) and these financial and government institutions are taking on even more leverage based on "rear-view" predictions of growth that will never come because of the current (and worsening) captial cost to deliver the energy that you must have to drive the real economy.
Lemming indeed.
I guess we'll see if we're going to have REAL deflation or not. You seem to have more faith in TPTB than I do. Your faith says that they can outwit the market, while my faith says the market will have the final say. Time will tell who is right or wrong. Until then, all you have is an opinion, and to state it as fact calls your credibility into question.
Dude, natural gas prices are way down.
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/277090/20120105/windy-city-trader-trade-tip-1-5.htm
"NO ONE is delevering in the tradiational sense."
A default is a form of deleveraging.
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2010/09/20/deleveraging-with-a-twist/
Private debt is vastly larger than the Public debt most people make reference to. The trend is down.
An article from Sept 20, 2010 is your supporting documents? Things have changed a bit.
I can see the "theory" behind debt deflation leading to a spike in the USD, but who is defaulting? Banks aren't kicking dead beats out of their homes who don't pay their mortgage because the system is already backlogged with foreclosures.
Financial leverage is up. The difference from 2010 to today is that at that time personal balance sheets were at risk, today Nations are at risk. This has morphed from a "credit crunch" to an outright sovereign problem. And sovereign problems usually include currency debasement, in one form or another. Continued use of credit has simply extended the time to resolve the problem - not helped debt repayment.
I cannot reconcile how people can be bullish on commodities (oil,gold,silver) while at the same time the greatest deleveraging since the 1930's is already happening all around us.
It's very simple (monkey) moron, all this "debt deflation" will collapse TBTF banks if they're not bailed out again, so they will be bailed out again with more printed currency, further debasing the dollar (and Euro).
And saying "debt deflation" by itself proves you're a moron. The proper phrase is "debt collapse", as in "price collapse".
And only morons will flee to (debasing) dollars.
Smart people will flee to PMs or some other non-dollar store of value.
Cranky...you know i luz ya man...but i'm afraid Mugabe's right on this. Can i say that again? it really sounds phucking HILARIOUS!! Anywho...this IS a debt deflation of truly staggering proportions coming out of Europe...and as a refresher the dollar was debased as was every other currency back in the 30's the last time this happened. so you can safely ignore that! of course...do NOT ignore those panties...unless you want to be less Cranky of course!
"lemmings." there...i said it. and i feel better for having done so i might add.
We were told Bernanke (my favorite name for him was Printocchio) QE was coming when the EURUSD went below 1.27. Let's see if that happens...
Bernanke is holding $1 trillion of euros. He would like to see it stay relatively strong, I agree.
I was unaware that El Bernank was holding 1 trillion worth of EUR.
I had always thought he was holding, in reality, a balance sheet that purportedly owned close to 3 trillion USD worth of assets, when valued by some sort of inverse-value measuring stick (i.e. the more toxic the asset [e.g. hello, Red Roof Inn Skanktel Chain], the higher the value).
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/fed-may-inject-over-1-trillion-bail-out-europe
But isn't the ECB supposed to return USDs?
Obviously Bernankatron will have to extend another swap line for the ECB to repay the first swap line.
It's funny, you know. From within Europe the whole situation looks different. Now, I know that media is generally US-centric and the headlines have to play an advertising role, but one thing doesn't get said enough: EU implosion is not imminent. Is the € an extension of the $ hegemony? Yes, but also a rival which has to be thoroughly discredited. Last I checked, it was the $ being bypassed in global trade and not the €.
So let's be very clear about what this is setting us up for: US printing of some kind. Notional GDP targeting or QE3.
Did we ever find out why Monti went to Brussels on Friday?
I presume he was forced to blow some ECB cock but what's the official story? I haven't heard a peep since the news dropped last week.
The euro is still up against the dollar over its lifetime. Yahoo! Finance link that probably won't work.
their equity markets have completely collapsed in the process however. "Was it good for you?"
The Donkey is already n the bathroom with laxatives and lubing his azzz.
I always figured Obama would star in the donkey show
LOL, poor Ben. Though, he might call it "room to manouver".
Triple digit crude? Forget EUR/USD.
Devaluation bitchez!
Where are those nice days when Jean-Claude would hold a press briefing and tell us all is well. Mr. Dragi probably works in mysterious ways!
So then Japan is closer to the abyss?
Yes.
One can certainly hope
Carry trade, finance for "errand boy".
Collapse Bitchezz. Stick a fork and embrace the YUAN. Long live Chairman Mao.
The Euro is getting "pounded". Really starting to feel like a George Soros moment.
Speaking of getting pounded... the Nikkei is getting prison raped.
From nearly 40,000 in 1989 to 8,5xx today.
The Nikkei has gotten its shit pushed in multiple times.
That could never happen to U.S. equity markets (even though they're sort of on their way, now at 1998 levels, not even accounting for survivorship bias, index rejiggering, the passionate inflation of the fractional reserve charlatans, or other games and riggings of the great Wall Street Cess Pool Ponzi).
Parity for all world fiat. How many pegs do we have already? It won't look like a dollar, it won't be called a dollar, but at the end of the day the paper that the world is using will become universally controlled and devalued. Every single country, including the BRICs has unsustainable debt and has monetized or manipulated debt/markets to some level. Pick your posion folks, the "old" sayings like "possession is 9/10 ths of the law" and "location, location, location" are going to really start meaning something again. Heck, possession will be all that matters as everything on paper burns to the ground. If you can not hold it in your hand or protect whatever "it" is, you don't own it, and most likely it has already been stolen or devalued.
You mean GLOBAL DEFLATION. Get the phuck out of the way folks!!! Just get the PHUCK out of the way!
Economist are your friends. They can be trusted. Just look at the USA and Europe. Great ethcis at work.
What time do the FX markets open? My brokerage doesnt give quotes until like 5:15 eastern I think. How is Tyler getting quotes so early?
just check the bloomberg site..easiest way..
I like this one. You owe me.
http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd-advanced-chart
The Euro is falling like DSK's pants in a New York hotel!
My broker is always open. Currently has a spread of 5 at 4:30 eastern PM. Many different ones to choose from. Looks like it's up to China to prop up the EUR today as Japan is theoretically closed.
The new hotness for futures charts, http://commoditycharts.com/commodities/
All to convenient timing for the dollar.....................ever notice "everything" is conveniently timed "for" the Dollar.
Paper tradin' bitches.........................................and everyone thinks it's real ? It's a ploy to goose oil higher, prop the dollar and jackboot Gold. Will the ploy work ?
Ha !
agreed
Sorry but you're not making any sense. How does a stronger USD goose oil?
You are not making any sense, please explain how the price of oil keeps rising with the rising dollar ?
The price of oil must keep rising while the dollar is debased. Just because the dollar appears to be stronger relative to other currencies doesn't mean it's purchasing power is increasing.
It's another paper illusion.
(That's why they are war mongering Iran to keep the price of oil high)
Also, the war mongering is keeping the DXY up.
It just means USD is sinking a little slower than other sinking currencies.
War with Iran will be the last hurrah for USD ...until American cities are nuked.
As of today all major nations on the planet have announced they're dropping the US dollar and trading with Iran in their respective currencies.
Remember this day.
The day the US dollar started losing world reserve currency status.
It won't be long now.
"It just means USD is sinking a little slower than other sinking currencies.
War with Iran will be the last hurrah for USD ...until American cities are nuked.
As of today all major nations on the planet have announced they're dropping the US dollar and trading with Iran in their respective currencies.
Remember this day.
The day the US dollar started losing world reserve currency status.
It won't be long now."
What do you base that on dude? What's so special about today?.........any links or something similar?
No. Llehman collapse pushed dxy over 90. If dxy keeps going up then GF is as big a deal as llehman.
That is unbelievable logic. Oil and dollars are interchangeable at any given time. Oil is the Gold proxy that floats the US dollar and, for all intents and purposes, gives it it's value. This is why the US government vehemently defends the Reserve currency status, hence, war mongering with nations that threaten it or even suggest an alternative. In rare cases, what goes on with the dollar and oil in real time is mutually exclusive but directly and inversely effects one another with minimal arbitrage.
"limit down and launch the nukes."
EURJPY opening down 15 pips. Wow! Had no idea this was newsworthy.
EURUSD 1.2691.
Ok Ben, fire up those presses :)
Clock is ticking. By March it could get really interesting. 100B Swaps due, Greek default almost 100% at that point. Again they can kick on for a long time....but sooner or later.
Timberrrrrr! 1.267
Good charts!
Look at Euro after the Oct/November massive Central Bank intervention.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/01/08/fed-bailout-of-eurozo...
PM's getting destroyed.
Gold, silver, platinum, palladium, copper
All getting killed as "King Dollar" reigns again.
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=9943706
Silver is up 0.88%, gold is -0.08%. They sure are getting "destroyed"
LOL
You're silly !
Haha what an idiot...
Robo, you are a pathetic clueless phuck. Seriously I think he is a US Govt. impersonation/disinformation software malfunction gone haywire...
That's not a bad thing, it's a good thing, chance to buy PMs cheaper, BTFD, all that.
Go ahead, hammer silver down to 20, we'll back up the freikin truck and load up.
It's all how you look at it Robo, and not many here view it like you do.
the USD going bid, in fact 2012 will be the year of the $. Why? War and end of the world stuff. Everyone from the middle east to China even USSR will be unloading their currencies and buying up USDs. So it's going to be a bid fest. As for gold, buy it, silver just hold it, but buy gold. We do get war, Gold will go bid too, Silver will sell on the China crash as will the other indust metals. Stocks have had a fairly good run on the Jan meltup...it ends.
If you are holding stocks and you can't handle the volatility that will bleed your eye sockets. Then just sell and sit it out. Get ready for 2% - 4% swings on indexes. The VIX sitting where it is points to a major spike.
the storm is coming.
prepare.
Thank you for the info chump.
anytime. Don't sell your PM's!
/SI is only up .02% tard.
EUR/USD really doing me good. Thanks ZH.
The SPX is setting up for a very critical top, but it is important to confirm that top with an inter-market perspective and the AUDUSD is at a very interesting inflection point. It could be hinting at a critical move lower for both the AUDUSD and the SPX in the near term. http://bit.ly/yS7uJD
"stability"
God I miss Trichet clucking that word everytime another floorboard in Brussels cracked apart
i miss the tears of laughter, rolling on the carpet, splitting my sides ...ah, memories
Over to you Count Dracula, let the clown show commence
the poor yen
US equities payback looms on the 1.26 EUR blowout.
This market is about to lose it's guts. Messy Greek default jitters hits wires redux.
EU long overdue reality call is about to ring in...can they kick the can a little further? Problem is these f*ckers are running out of road.
All I can say is that 90% of the guys who post here are gold bugs, and they cheer for a crashing Euro and crashing stocks yet little do they know they are cheering for their own demise because PM's crash 3x faster than anything else.
Never really figured it out, why aren't you guys cheering for a strong Euro massive TPTB manipulation of stocks, huge money printing, and never again on a gold standard?
Seems like you guys should be praying for a Weimar Meltup, a huge bailout of all the European banks, more monetization, more printing, bigger debt ceilings, etc.
I don't consider myself a gold bug or anything else, I consider myself a realist. I think it's smart to have a position in physical gold and silver, but at this point I think 10-15% of a portfolio is probably about right. What I see, as a realist, is that TPTB can't manipulate the markets forever. It's a based on confidence, or lack thereof, and confidence is crumbling and will only deteriorate further. This will be what brings the crash. Many people are realizing that the current situation cannot be sustained. This will lead to a crash that TPTB will be helpless to prevent. And your equities are going to crash and burn. IMO.
In that case, consider yourself a ten percenter...
Second!
And a nice position for me in bonds. Take the paltry in the face of a presently overwhelming near term deflating scenario.
Likewise, some of the bonds be TIPS. Acting like a good discounter of long future (when I do not know ) inflation... last year returned 7 to 10%.
Worked last year, and why not again. Naughts been fixed, let alone the fundamental core problems even addressed, globally....
tryin' to contain myself tonight, Dawg, maintain that spiritual balance... :)
I hear ya, knuks. That is one of my goals for the year. Serenity in the face of calamity.
"Never really figured it out, why aren't you guys cheering for a strong Euro massive TPTB manipulation of stocks,..."
The ethics & morality of being an accomplice to a crime and a lie once discovered?
"...huge money printing, and never again on a gold standard?"
And the value of a wage earners dollar does what under the stupidity of government printing to pay off its own obligations, interest payments & debt? Will you guarantee a wage increase to compensate for the devaluation of their labor?
No you won't.
Never really figured you out either...completely.
Its simple, Robo is America, he is immoral, he sits behind a desk, he does not work, he does not INVEST, he trades, short, long, odd, even, black, white. He bets. He could care less about what happens to his country, its here and now that matters, its about making money. its about playing the game, being part of it, reality trading anyone?
And don't get upset at him, this is what your country has become, its rotten to its core, Robo is merely an aspect of the disease, Robo is America, read his comments, they are inane, bears, bulls, corruption, he embraces it, but then so has your nation.
There is nothing to get about Robo, he is here and now, he could care less about his children, or yours, he could care less about his freedom, or mine, he could care less about his country, or anyone elses. He is America.
nmewn - thanks, you saved me some typing.
I'm with you on that one Robo. As evident throughout history, the market has always been there to fool the masses. Once we reach such unanimous bias levels of excitement on anything, the likely outcome is usually the opposite. That's why I've been long USD for a while now.
Only way I would consider getting rid of some gold is if Simpson Bowles was enacted. I do not see it happening because Obbumer needs to keep those entitlements going to get re-elected.
Amazing isn't it! I bet 90 percent are living in downtown Manhattan to boot...and actually believe the price of that townhouse apartment is going to do anything but totally collapse as well. NO LIQUIDITY...NO LEVERAGE MORONS!
Parity party time!
the euro could further be examined in after hours.... AH-EUR/USD http://www.traddr.com/photo/aheurusd-529
the vibes are bad....
real bad.
Yeahhh, but I ordered myself a nice new computer form California today with this silly Yen.
Thank God most of my income isn't in Yen... It IS in GBP, though. Sometimes you're fucked if you do and fucked if you don't.