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EURUSD Soars On No News: ECB Now Intervening In FX?

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Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:20 | 1898751 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

Europes' gonna make Cairo look like a Sunday Stroll in the Park...

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:22 | 1898774 Hansel
Hansel's picture

Have you seen the latest video from Cario?


Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:24 | 1898783 ratso
ratso's picture

Tyler has previously posted a long article on how euro repatriation is affecting the euorusd cross.

Maybe this is just more repatriation.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:28 | 1898802 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

This is where I'm at a bit of a loss.  If the Euro is looking to be on its last leg, why repatriate to Euros?  Wouldn't you want more USD to convert to Deutche Mark, Franc, Peso, etc.? 

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:33 | 1898848 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

The real question is: Why does everybody think that French banks have the majority of their liabilities denominated in EUR? It´s more likely that they´re looking for USDs.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:39 | 1898873 ratso
ratso's picture

Dollar assets like USD stocks and bonds are being sold to try and prevent liquidity in the banking and finance sector from seizing up like a seized engine.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:49 | 1898962 sqz
sqz's picture


French banks like other European banks are having to meet capital adequacy targets. Since they are loath to raise fresh capital in this environment, it is much easier for them to sell off assets. The highest liquidity assets, and therefore easiest to sell and buy, tend to be in USD. Also, EZ bank liabilities are mainly, rather unsurprisingly, in EUR (retail and business deposits from Europe etc).

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 13:17 | 1899105 ratso
ratso's picture

Right you are.   That is also why gold and gold ming stcks are selling off.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 13:22 | 1899126 Threeggg
Threeggg's picture

Nothing to do with tomorrows options expiry on the Gold/Silver contracts right ?

Wink, wink ~



Mon, 11/21/2011 - 13:31 | 1899162 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

shhht! nobody writes here about the Au/Ag options expirations here!

no, it does not make sense - somehow Tyler is convinced that the EUR/USD "should be lower".

I am quite sure the MegaBanks want it at 1.30 for December (from their customer's propaganda)

To me, it looks like "dropping" to the level I would expect, 1.425, which is what IMHO it will reach by Easter.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 13:38 | 1899182 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

why should the ECB be "actively engaged in FX warfare against the Fed"?? The Currency War is still in it's "down" leg. And the FED is not interested in fighting an impossible "up" leg since as Global Reserve Currency it really can't - except with gold.

It's all about the US Money Market Managers, IMO. The MegaBanks want them in the EU Bonds market with, of course, CDS and lots and lots of FX hedges. Hence the furious propaganda so that they can be fleeced...

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 13:22 | 1899129 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

All of the strength is in the euro and the swiss. I'd say the aussie and the loonie are better tells to where we are headed.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:57 | 1899013 narnia
narnia's picture

China has a larger trade surplus with EU. They are the most likely USD to EUR converters and the biggest trader on the market.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:53 | 1898986 SHEEPFUKKER

pass the trash

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:44 | 1898916 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture



Paraphrase of a truly wise man's words (slightly altered only to fit the context what lay ahead in the European Union, and then, the global economy, sovereign and banking funding/insolvency issues):

"First they laugh at the truth. Then they fight the truth. Then the truth wins, bitchez."


Math doesn't lie. You can't have your saving of the European Union in even remotely an approximate form as now, with a shared currency, without massive inflation for all Europeans rivaling anything they've seen since the WWII era, and making the late 1970s and very early 1980s seem positively tame by comparison.

The big institutional investors, banks and even sovereign with exposure to PIIGS+France+UK sovereign debt are now petitioning, threatening, blackmailing/extorting politicians to allow the ECB to fire up their CERN € printing machine (that The Bernank is actually envious of) so as to be able to print faster than the speed of light, allowing these entities to get out of their exposure while the € still has the ability to allow them to liquidate and diversify quickly into other asset classes before the € soon becomes the Charmin Rough Texture.

I say go Icelandic, because there's no way out of the fractional reserve banking created EU nightmare, to be replicated on a global scale, without pain, and investors should bear losses first and foremost (you know, it's a quaint concept that investors should have to swallow losses, even though investment is subject to risk, when brilliant people like Hank Paulson & The Bernank refuse mandating haircuts, instead insisting that taxpayers, small and mid-size businesses, savers and the very responsible citizens pay the price, via subsidization and inflation, for the wretched excesses of governments, Wall Street, imbecilic 'too-big-to-fail' large banks [soon to be too-big-to-save] and the investment/financial sector in general).

This volatility signals that damn fork in the road they've been trying to not come to has arrived.

Good luck, bitchez. Hedge accordingly if you've not done so.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 13:32 | 1899167 Antifaschistische
Antifaschistische's picture

Re: End the Fed "I say go Icelandic, because there's no way out of the fractional reserve banking created EU nightmare...and investors should bear losses first and foremost.

You're 100% correct, but here's why this won't happen.

Governments don't tax losses.

Governments are incentivized to force capital gains upon the masses, thus extracting extra taxation with devalued currencies.  This is why the market is not allowed to punish investors who’ve invested unwisely. We must feed the beast.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:26 | 1898798 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Kuwait next flashpoint. Riots last month (kept very quiet in MSM) is what provoked Obama to announce we're "pulling out of Iraq". Guess what. We're pulling in to Kuwait

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 14:11 | 1899315 onarga74
onarga74's picture

We're going to nuke Iran first then get to the more important things like Kuwait and Belize.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 14:27 | 1899374 reload
reload's picture

If Iran is agressed, Bahrain gets ugly - very fast.

The backlash from the putdown earlier this year will be big. Bahrain `security forces` perpetrated what can only be described as atrocities. Largely unreported in the media. Medical staff who treated wounded protesters have been given 25 year jail terms.

The Shia majority are not going to forget or be kept in submission easily if there are Shias elsewhere being `matyred`

All on the doorstep of the wonderful Kingdom of Saud. Unintended consequences.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:20 | 1898755 swanpoint
swanpoint's picture

soaring, bitchez!

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:21 | 1898758 Odin
Odin's picture

Nah, just a glitch in the Matrix...

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:21 | 1898759 deepsouthdoug
deepsouthdoug's picture

Thanks for the clarity.  I was trying to figure out was going on.  In this case no news means I'll hold my shorts a bit longer.   

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:21 | 1898760 c'mon man
c'mon man's picture

Soccer fans know how to riot...


Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:22 | 1898769 DosZap
DosZap's picture

c'mon man

Yep, cause their usually Snockered.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:21 | 1898765 BW
BW's picture

Dumping USD assets buying Euros.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:22 | 1898766 Quintus
Quintus's picture

Why would the ECB do that?  EUR/USD wasn't at any particularly dangerous tipping point.

I prefer the 'Panic repatriation' interpretation.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:39 | 1898897 Captain Benny
Captain Benny's picture

Agreed, there is some serious panic and they needed to repatriate.  Something very very very big is going on.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:22 | 1898768 dereksatkinson
dereksatkinson's picture

The Fed, not the ECB, is probably doing this.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:22 | 1898770 konputa
konputa's picture

No news is good news, apparently.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:24 | 1898771 prains
prains's picture

somebody just got in the hot tub without a bathing suit

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:22 | 1898773 Johnny Yuma
Johnny Yuma's picture

Fade it!

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:45 | 1898938 Johnny Yuma
Johnny Yuma's picture

Looks like the ECB is giving everyone -1's today on their comments. Lol!

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:23 | 1898777 greg2514
greg2514's picture

I have seen everything now! Maybe GS going for 1.40 again

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:23 | 1898778 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Capital repatriation. Banks need money on their books. Lot's of margin calls. I'd fade the bounce.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:24 | 1898781 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Someone's front running the US credit downgrade. My WAG

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:24 | 1898784 qussl3
qussl3's picture

This is why i am not short this POS.

Fucking retarded no reason ping pong action.

FX brokers must love this crap.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:24 | 1898786 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

When things begin to crumble, expect the unexpected. 

Always bad when very unexpected things happen. Market hates that

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:24 | 1898788 buzlightening
buzlightening's picture

Ezero rock solid as sponge bob square pants enjoys getting soaked.  Who didn't know it all ends in disaster and mf gobble your money was only a warning as to how fast your burnokio bux can be locked up.  In an instant; overnight.  Get out of the western bankstering system or die a horrible financial death along with it.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:25 | 1898793 common_sense
common_sense's picture



Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:26 | 1898794 zonkie
zonkie's picture

It is someone dumping dollar.  WTI also rose last few minutes. Has QE3 chatter intensified?

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:29 | 1898810 jomama
jomama's picture

surely this move must be based on fundamentals.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 13:10 | 1899082 Zero Debt
Zero Debt's picture

Fundamental analysis

Technical analysis

Manipulation analysis

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 13:37 | 1899190 citrine
citrine's picture

Not necessarily in that order, is it?

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:29 | 1898811 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Eurobonds to save Europe.  When markets start to collapse, recycle a EuroRumor.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:30 | 1898816 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Property-casualty group diving today, Alleghany down 7%

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:35 | 1898866 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture


Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:30 | 1898817 tomreagan
tomreagan's picture

Check out the 10yr treasury vs. stocks vs financial corporates today. Bank corporates are getting pummeled (as is EIB and other yankee names recently as Asia dumps in record amounts. And yes they do take down most of yankee auctions). Financials are getting smoked,the last time they were this wide 10yr Treasuries were @ 1.77%. Today, they can only muster a 5bp rally and have stalled at 1.95% while stocks are creamed. Selling to buy EUR because the EURUSD vs S&P correlation is all that matters? Hmmm?


Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:30 | 1898818 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

I said I another thread.

A colleague mentioned that Cramer said the key to understand the equityarket is the currencies.

So stocks will not care what Currencies do from here on.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:31 | 1898821 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

Weird stuff. Equities didn´t follow. Gold doesn´t count today, because tommorow is options expiry...

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:32 | 1898839 youngman
youngman's picture

I am thinking there should be enough demand to override the Bank raid today...so far not....

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