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EURUSD Soars On No News: ECB Now Intervening In FX?
Out of nowhere, and based on no news whatsoever, the EURUSD just jumped by 40+ pips in what appears to have been one trade. There is no news to justify this move, as the only possibly related headline to come out was that the Greek finance minister sees parliament vote on the new EUR 130bln aid deal in January. This is neither news, nor is it bullish. In addition, we have information now that Intesa has now been halted on the Italian market due to excessive (downward naturally) volatility. Which begs the question: has the ECB decided it has had enough of bond monetizations and is now actively engaged in FX warfare against the Fed, or are French banks now massively dumping USD assets and buying EUR with the proceeds with indescriminate abandon, as was reported first previously here.
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Europes' gonna make Cairo look like a Sunday Stroll in the Park...
Have you seen the latest video from Cario?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oa2Cm9dqUqY
Tyler has previously posted a long article on how euro repatriation is affecting the euorusd cross.
Maybe this is just more repatriation.
This is where I'm at a bit of a loss. If the Euro is looking to be on its last leg, why repatriate to Euros? Wouldn't you want more USD to convert to Deutche Mark, Franc, Peso, etc.?
The real question is: Why does everybody think that French banks have the majority of their liabilities denominated in EUR? It´s more likely that they´re looking for USDs.
Dollar assets like USD stocks and bonds are being sold to try and prevent liquidity in the banking and finance sector from seizing up like a seized engine.
@swissaustrian
French banks like other European banks are having to meet capital adequacy targets. Since they are loath to raise fresh capital in this environment, it is much easier for them to sell off assets. The highest liquidity assets, and therefore easiest to sell and buy, tend to be in USD. Also, EZ bank liabilities are mainly, rather unsurprisingly, in EUR (retail and business deposits from Europe etc).
Right you are. That is also why gold and gold ming stcks are selling off.
Nothing to do with tomorrows options expiry on the Gold/Silver contracts right ?
Wink, wink ~
Nothing.....................................LOL
shhht! nobody writes here about the Au/Ag options expirations here!
no, it does not make sense - somehow Tyler is convinced that the EUR/USD "should be lower".
I am quite sure the MegaBanks want it at 1.30 for December (from their customer's propaganda)
To me, it looks like "dropping" to the level I would expect, 1.425, which is what IMHO it will reach by Easter.
why should the ECB be "actively engaged in FX warfare against the Fed"?? The Currency War is still in it's "down" leg. And the FED is not interested in fighting an impossible "up" leg since as Global Reserve Currency it really can't - except with gold.
It's all about the US Money Market Managers, IMO. The MegaBanks want them in the EU Bonds market with, of course, CDS and lots and lots of FX hedges. Hence the furious propaganda so that they can be fleeced...
All of the strength is in the euro and the swiss. I'd say the aussie and the loonie are better tells to where we are headed.
China has a larger trade surplus with EU. They are the most likely USD to EUR converters and the biggest trader on the market.
pass the trash
Paraphrase of a truly wise man's words (slightly altered only to fit the context what lay ahead in the European Union, and then, the global economy, sovereign and banking funding/insolvency issues):
Math doesn't lie. You can't have your saving of the European Union in even remotely an approximate form as now, with a shared currency, without massive inflation for all Europeans rivaling anything they've seen since the WWII era, and making the late 1970s and very early 1980s seem positively tame by comparison.
The big institutional investors, banks and even sovereign with exposure to PIIGS+France+UK sovereign debt are now petitioning, threatening, blackmailing/extorting politicians to allow the ECB to fire up their CERN € printing machine (that The Bernank is actually envious of) so as to be able to print faster than the speed of light, allowing these entities to get out of their exposure while the € still has the ability to allow them to liquidate and diversify quickly into other asset classes before the € soon becomes the Charmin Rough Texture.
I say go Icelandic, because there's no way out of the fractional reserve banking created EU nightmare, to be replicated on a global scale, without pain, and investors should bear losses first and foremost (you know, it's a quaint concept that investors should have to swallow losses, even though investment is subject to risk, when brilliant people like Hank Paulson & The Bernank refuse mandating haircuts, instead insisting that taxpayers, small and mid-size businesses, savers and the very responsible citizens pay the price, via subsidization and inflation, for the wretched excesses of governments, Wall Street, imbecilic 'too-big-to-fail' large banks [soon to be too-big-to-save] and the investment/financial sector in general).
This volatility signals that damn fork in the road they've been trying to not come to has arrived.
Good luck, bitchez. Hedge accordingly if you've not done so.
Re: End the Fed "I say go Icelandic, because there's no way out of the fractional reserve banking created EU nightmare...and investors should bear losses first and foremost.
You're 100% correct, but here's why this won't happen.
Governments don't tax losses.
Governments are incentivized to force capital gains upon the masses, thus extracting extra taxation with devalued currencies. This is why the market is not allowed to punish investors who’ve invested unwisely. We must feed the beast.
Kuwait next flashpoint. Riots last month (kept very quiet in MSM) is what provoked Obama to announce we're "pulling out of Iraq". Guess what. We're pulling in to Kuwait
We're going to nuke Iran first then get to the more important things like Kuwait and Belize.
If Iran is agressed, Bahrain gets ugly - very fast.
The backlash from the putdown earlier this year will be big. Bahrain `security forces` perpetrated what can only be described as atrocities. Largely unreported in the media. Medical staff who treated wounded protesters have been given 25 year jail terms.
The Shia majority are not going to forget or be kept in submission easily if there are Shias elsewhere being `matyred`
All on the doorstep of the wonderful Kingdom of Saud. Unintended consequences.
soaring, bitchez!
Nah, just a glitch in the Matrix...
Thanks for the clarity. I was trying to figure out was going on. In this case no news means I'll hold my shorts a bit longer.
Soccer fans know how to riot...
c'mon man
Yep, cause their usually Snockered.
Dumping USD assets buying Euros.
Why would the ECB do that? EUR/USD wasn't at any particularly dangerous tipping point.
I prefer the 'Panic repatriation' interpretation.
Agreed, there is some serious panic and they needed to repatriate. Something very very very big is going on.
The Fed, not the ECB, is probably doing this.
No news is good news, apparently.
somebody just got in the hot tub without a bathing suit
Fade it!
Looks like the ECB is giving everyone -1's today on their comments. Lol!
I have seen everything now! Maybe GS going for 1.40 again
Capital repatriation. Banks need money on their books. Lot's of margin calls. I'd fade the bounce.
Someone's front running the US credit downgrade. My WAG
This is why i am not short this POS.
Fucking retarded no reason ping pong action.
FX brokers must love this crap.
When things begin to crumble, expect the unexpected.
Always bad when very unexpected things happen. Market hates that
Ezero rock solid as sponge bob square pants enjoys getting soaked. Who didn't know it all ends in disaster and mf gobble your money was only a warning as to how fast your burnokio bux can be locked up. In an instant; overnight. Get out of the western bankstering system or die a horrible financial death along with it.
RUMOR IS HERE: AGAIN LIKE IN SEPTEMBER.... BARROSO AND EUROBONDS...ARE COMING BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACK...
THIS TIME IS TRUTH, OF COURSE...
It is someone dumping dollar. WTI also rose last few minutes. Has QE3 chatter intensified?
surely this move must be based on fundamentals.
Fundamental analysis
Technical analysis
Manipulation analysis
Not necessarily in that order, is it?
Eurobonds to save Europe. When markets start to collapse, recycle a EuroRumor.
Property-casualty group diving today, Alleghany down 7%
Pourquoi?
Check out the 10yr treasury vs. stocks vs financial corporates today. Bank corporates are getting pummeled (as is EIB and other yankee names recently as Asia dumps in record amounts. And yes they do take down most of yankee auctions). Financials are getting smoked,the last time they were this wide 10yr Treasuries were @ 1.77%. Today, they can only muster a 5bp rally and have stalled at 1.95% while stocks are creamed. Selling to buy EUR because the EURUSD vs S&P correlation is all that matters? Hmmm?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDH9Jq5AWkQ
I said I another thread.
A colleague mentioned that Cramer said the key to understand the equityarket is the currencies.
So stocks will not care what Currencies do from here on.
Weird stuff. Equities didn´t follow. Gold doesn´t count today, because tommorow is options expiry...
I am thinking there should be enough demand to override the Bank raid today...so far not....
Its probably JAPAN...lol....the last three headlines on ZeroHedge....is all it takes to make me buy more gold and silver....this market is crazy....no more fundimentals...no more economics..its Central Bank vs Central Bank...scary...and add in HFT´s and regulations...or lack thereof..sorry..I´ll stay outside and watch
Saw that too, it must be Goldman sacks's God hand.
it can be suis.
They have to hold CHF at certain level so they are forced to buy good amount of EURO
It´s pretty irrelevant which FX the SNB buys as long as they´re selling CHFs. Most of the interventions took place in USD/CHF not EUR/CHF
PPT i would think
trying to light a unicorn fart under the S&P and the R2K
EIB/IMF sells gold and converts USD into EUR (buying Euros) to prop it up -- they are afraid people will lose confidence in EUR (if they see it plunging) and everything collapses within days.
Apparently I am helping them, cause I am adding to my PHYS!
more likely the G20 nations are managing their currency reserves to match the SDR weighting being discussed before the mother of all IMF printing coming soon.
Goldman covering their shorts......
Hank Greenberg suing Uncle Sam for 2008 takeover of AIG (!) lol
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/11/21/hank-greenberg-cites-constitution-...
Wait, didn't he go on TV every day for 2 weeks straight begging for a bail-out, because as he put it, "It's the quintessential American institution, and cannot be allowed to fail?"
They're gonna have to increase the dosage of fluoride in my water if I'm to be expected to fall for this.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45383190
The loss of customers' funds at MF Global is better than expected at $1.2 bln, that's why zEURo spiked. My bet is on gravity though.
Jamie Dimon's gettin' paid!
more buyers than sellers makes the price go up
Like, buyers named ECB?
I'm going out on a limb here. Some anonymous short selling dude in his Mom's basement caused it.
Yeah...that's the ticket.
RobotTrader?
Just a few people with some ideas after following the link to Rollover,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDWWENGUhO4&feature=related
A FYI to anyone who wants to watch, the only thing worth it in the movie is the ending. I invested the two hours to watch this dog just a couple weeks ago, and it's plodding, has a very sparse storyline, and no T&A. But an awesome doomer-porn last 10 minutes. Here's the last 10 minutes with the doom-porn: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPYLJoq_40Y
The ECB is Intervening in Europe, The FED is intervening in The US, The BOJ has gone ballistic in Japan and the only thing it has gotton us is more debt and more instability. What they will do to keep the derivitives ponzi from coming unraveled? Pretty soon the only option they will have left is to hide...And you wonder why the underground bunker business is thriving?
I think it's because of Snooki's new book.
I understand it's titled "The New Jayne Mansfield for Croutons" or "How to Spank the Clown Without a Boner.
WHY DOSE EVERYONE HERE THINK THAT THE WHOLE WORLD REVOLVES AROUND THE EUR/USD.... OBVESLY NOONE HERE TRADES FX... EVERYONE SEEMS TO FORGET THAT THERE ARE OTHER DRIVERS OF THE FX MARKETS. A LITTLE BIT IF RESEARCH AND STUDY AND YOU WILL SEE THE RELATIONSIPS... MOVES IN THE CROSSES WILL MOVE THE MAJORS... IE THIS LAST MOVE WHICH CAME FROM EUR/CHF... IF YOU HAVE A LOOK YOU WILL SEE THAT THE USD FELL SHARPLY AGAINST THE CHF WHERE AS THE EUR DID NOT, THIS THEN IN TURN STRENGTHEN THE EUR AGAINST THE USD...
Your CAPS LOCK is on....
Either way you'd be a fool to buy this.
Might I recommend decaf?
cover em up boys, if things are so bad for the euro, then why is it still 1.35? Seems it should be so much lower. Why not?
For the same reason Treasuries have only traded between 1.95 and 2.06 since 10/31. Because they are both being massively manipulated for small amounts as volume has plunged and liquidity has vanished
Because things in the US arnt a whole lot better then in europe... the main reason that the EUR/USD plunged is because of the USD/JPY... The USD has been prevented from falling against the yen by the BOJ however the EUR has not so when EUR/JPY plumbeted and the USD/JPY did not (due to fear of another BOJ intervention which cam a week or so latter) the EUR/USD also Plumbeted... However you will notice that the when the eur/jpy rallied the usd/jpy did not so this is why the rally in the EUR/USD happend and why the EUR/USD is so resilient.
Pump and dump...Weekly open holding strong
PWND o_0
Our group expects Gold, silver, Indices, EURUSD to bottom 22nd or 23rd. Then a rebound for around the next 4 weeks.
Besides that I suggest to be careful with holding positions overnight in Asia. The most evil selloffs and/or washouts in recent years most often started during Asia session when the rest of the planet is asleep.
DYOD.
Our group...?
He's a pretty good gold trader lots of people watch over at kitco. Has a good track record so he's no dumby. Not a perma-bull.
All honor goes to Cyclist. I'm just a student.
when in doubt, drown by numbers in group sex, group alcohol, group betting, group shorting, group snorting and group suicides.
You are perfect as client for group on and Walmart as you can buy group junk food at discount prices.
March on WS Groupee has to be the word that makes Newt crinch and Gingrich grab for the pepper can.
Our group = you and your hamster?
Or a lot of hamsters
bwahaha!
Does your hamster celebrate Turkey Day? That's always a fun day for those Asians, and other non-pilgrims.
sniff, sniff. Is that a short squeeze i smell?
ya grmpeabody, you know...."them"
This is the perfect set up to strengthen short position in EURUSD; a EURUSD collapse is imminent.
1.3555 Let the selling begin.
Maybe they'll lock up Corzine in a cell next to Angelo Mozillo, oh wait, that's right....
EUR/USD green, gentlemen. Draghi?
If the ECB is intervening, they have good precedent to do so. The week of US Thanksgiving can have mad flow. Last year the pair dumped over 550 points the week of Thanksgiving. in 2007, the pair saw 100 points rise before hitting a top and falling 500 points by Dec 20. Any ground given up this week could be costly and not seen again for a damn long time!
Why the strength? Bcause things in the US arnt a whole lot better then in europe... the main reason that the EUR/USD plunged is because of the USD/JPY... The USD has been prevented from falling against the yen by the BOJ however the EUR has not so when EUR/JPY plumbeted and the USD/JPY did not (due to fear of another BOJ intervention which cam a week or so latter) the EUR/USD also Plumbeted... However you will notice that the when the eur/jpy rallied the usd/jpy did not so this is why the rally in the EUR/USD happend and why the EUR/USD is so resilient.
PMs getting clobbered, especially gold.
Isn't this what the whole market is about ? Real assets vs paper ?
Make no mention of the Gold/Silver options expiry tomorrow !
Don't you know the rules? Since gold can never go down you have to say "gold has temporarily stopped going up." That way it can still be regarded as a safe investment.
i don't know who did it but if it was just a short cover, it probably would have rertaced a bit by now. SInce it hasn't i can assume this was a long position and they are sitting under the bid now. Just a little food for thought. Everyone thinks the euro is going lower and has positioned themselves accordingly. So there are the stops to be run.
Good point. Might just be normal market action in a very thin holiday week.
That was pathetic move from ECB. Japan can erect a bigger candlestick on their USD/JPY than the Europeans can with their currency. And the Japanese are known for having the smallest candlesticks in the world.
Where's George Soros in all this? Doesn't he want to break the ECB?
i dont know whats with liquidity, today they were hunting for stops like hell. They are doing with FX what they want, there is no market and logic to those moves.
"According to White House, President Obama called Italian PM Monti and voiced full confidence in Italy"
We have a winner!
How about short squeeze? Show me one euro bull, there is none left. Market very often shakes out weak hands before resuming the trend.
Am I the only one thinking... 40 pips...out of nowehre...so what, thats nothing for this cross.... hardly news or even noteworthy...now a 400 pip move,thats MAYBE news...
oy gevalt with the drama.
EUR/USD spike was a simple retesting Friday's weekly close. (and the EMA 100 in the 1 hour)
My grandmother could have predicted that!
(I faded a correated pair for a few pips. hurrah.....technical looks like consolidation/stall at this level for "awhile")
I still believe that the relative strength of the EUR, in the face of ever increasing bad news is, as Merkel stresses repeatedly, the crisis is perceived to be one of confidence. In some sense they are right [In God we trust, no gold here] although, I believe they are spot off and are attempting to cure the symptoms vs the disease through market interventions. The news - that is the cover for these interventions. Doesn't matter the news content, headlines, or color of ink. Today, no news, but can get by with it sometimes because everyone will look for a rational trade savvy reason where none exists. None other than intervention by the eurozone's PPT. Don't know who exactly and maybe some here do or have a lead. Whomever it is is stacking up losses which someday will see the light of day.
Has the obvious since the get-go failure of the very famous super committee been priced out or priced in (it's so confusing)? Or, are market makers waiting for muggle notification by the Cramster during one of his epic, though thoroughly mesmerizing "think beyond the edge of your spreadsheet" sermons?
There may be one play for a day: hack super committee member and staff brokerage accounts ... follow the bread crumbs of corruption down the path to a dripping money pot?
(my first ZH post and i am soooo wet with anticipation of rudely taking it up backside as my vain attempts to merge with the group grope in the eye of the storm are exposed!)
"wet with anticipation of rudely taking it up backside"?
Necrophilic wet or ...?