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EU's Poorest Member Country Smacks Down Euro As Bulgaria Refuses To Join Eurozone
If one needs a shining example of why the days of Europe's artificial currency are numbered, look no further than the EU's poorest country which moments ago said "Ne Mersi" to the Eurozone and the European currency. From the WSJ: "Bulgaria, the European Union's poorest member state and a rare fiscal bright spot for the bloc, has indefinitely frozen long-held plans to adopt the single currency, marking the latest fiscally prudent country to cool its enthusiasm for the embattled currency. Speaking in interviews in Sofia, Prime Minister Boyko Borisov and Finance Minister Simeon Djankov said that the decision to shelve plans to join the currency area, a longtime strategic aim of successive governments in the former communist state, came in response to deteriorating economic conditions and rising uncertainty over the prospects of the bloc, alongside a decisive shift of public opinion in Bulgaria, which is entering its third year of an austerity program. "The momentum has shifted in our thinking and among the public…Right now, I don't see any benefits of entering the euro zone, only costs," Mr. Djankov said. "The public rightly wants to know who would we have to bailout when we join? It's too risky for us and it's also not certain what the rules are and what are they likely to be in one year or two."
When a parasitic technocrat asks to shake your hand, you refuse:
Of course, Bulgaria is right: at this point the only "upside" to new EMU entrants is for the unelected Brussels technocrats, who are now the butt of every possible joke, to demand said countries hand over their middle class' wealth in order to bailout Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy and all the rest of the "wealthy and developed." And since. in trader jargon, by not being "long" the euro, Bulgaria is effectively "short" it, expect to hear some rather disparaging statements emanating out of Europe's insolvent core vis-a-vis the poor nation shortly.
From the WSJ:
Prime Minister Boyko Borisov said concerns had been heightened by growing disputes between policy makers, some of whom back Germany's call to give priority to fiscal discipline over growth, while others want a more expansionary policy.
"I'm certain that we will definitely see a deepening divide in Europe now because many governments are not prepared to stomach the difficult decisions they have to take. It's like a spoilt child who doesn't want to go to the dentist to fix his bad teeth, even though the operation is needed," Mr. Borisov said. "This moment is critical for the euro zone and for the EU," he added.
Mr. Djankov said that Bulgaria's economy should still expand by around 1.5% this year, but warned that the euro zone could face up to five years with "zero growth" if national leaders continue to mull policy responses to the crisis instead of fully backing Germany's call to continue strict fiscal consolidation.
On the periphery of the euro zone, but overwhelmingly dependent on the bloc's larger economies for growth, Bulgaria has thus far managed to weather the euro crisis. The economy last year grew by a modest 1.7% and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development expects that to slow to 1.2% this year. Unemployment has risen to over 12%, but that is around half the levels in Greece and Spain, while Russian investment in the Black Sea resorts is rising rapidly.
In July, when investor sentiment toward the euro zone was less negative, Sofia tapped capital markets, with a heavily oversubscribed five-year €950 million 1.19 billion) Eurobond.
But Bulgaria's exposure to the deteriorating health of the euro zone has been compounded in recent months by mounting problems of other economies on its borders.
The paradox is that when Greece finally succumbs to reality, and is forced (or opts) out of Europe and the EMU, the biggest beneficiary will be Bulgaria, as billions in capital are redirected toward it from the "poor" country's southern neighbor, for whom the future is so bleak, rumors of a military coup make the rounds every other day.
As to why Bulgaria is slowly becoming the model for Europe, here is a brief extract from a Bloomberg article which explains why taking the pain and sufferening now, and administering true austerity, even if it means total losses of wealth for those who are not prepared for hyperinflation (which Bulgaria had for a long period of time in the 1990s) instead of deferring pain via unrepayable debt, always leads to beneficial consequences:
In 1989, the Soviet bloc collapsed. A new Bulgarian democracy was born, but with no money in the state treasury to pay for it. The nation’s savings were insignificant, shops were empty, unemployment was high and infrastructure was rudimentary. Austerity was just a fact of life.
After seven years of delayed reforms, booming private businesses and an almost complete lack of regulation, hyperinflation came to Bulgaria in 1996 and again wiped out the nation’s savings, forcing the closure of a third of the country’s banks. As a result, the lev -- Bulgaria’s currency -- was pegged to the deutsche mark (later to the euro), and the central bank was banned from lending to commercial banks, a precaution that remains in place today. The International Monetary Fund requires that all Bulgarian currency in circulation should be fully matched by foreign-exchange reserves.
The decade of 1989-1999 was harsh, but it turned Bulgaria into a disciplined nation of savers -- even after the country joined the EU in 2007. The banking sector is financed by these savings accounts, which provide a healthy Tier 1 capital- adequacy ratio of 15.8 percent. Credit-card penetration is extremely low -- Bulgarians prefer cash.
Being poor is no fun, of course. Public-sector employees are badly paid and retired people struggle to survive with their low pensions. Not a single motorway has been completed to link one end of Bulgaria with another and only parts of the subway in the capital, Sofia, work. This is the price to pay for not spending money that isn’t yours to improve your lot, at the level of the state and of the individual consumer.
But today Bulgaria has positive economic growth and the second-lowest state debt in the EU (after Estonia) at 16 percent of gross domestic product. It also has a manageable budget deficit of about 2 percent of GDP, despite levying a flat corporate and personal income tax of just 10 percent. Foreign- exchange reserves amount to 6 percent of GDP. In short, the country has a future.
Greeks, by contrast, have been spending more than they earn for the last 20 years. Once an employee entered the public sector, he couldn’t be laid off; he received 40 days’ vacation per year; and he was paid 14 months out of 12, with guaranteed annual raises. Greeks are richer as a result, but that lifestyle is not sustainable. Debt to GDP is 165 percent and the budget deficit is an unmanageable 9.1 percent.
For more read here.
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Hmmm, Bulgaria.
(the sound of rifling through travel brochures)
Surely Simon Black will be sending us a post from his new ranch Bulgaria soon.
hahaha!
I thought Simon already had a place on the booming Black Sea coast.
Swimmin' pools, movie stars ...
Perhaps Bulgaria should read FOFOA blog so that they could be conned into believing that Euro / FreeGold would solve our problems. LOL. What a joke.
I'm voting for complete and total worldwide economic collapse. I always vote for the winner.
lol...up twinkles.
I thought Simon Black was in Argentina banging Pelosi's doppelganger Kirschner. They are both leftist c*nts filled with botox. At least Kirschner's vineyards on Doug Casey's property are not radioactive like Pelosi's Nor Cal Fukashima vineyards. Pelosi's wine has a tangy after taste from MOX and cesium.
F her, the Libtards and their muslim!
Although I don't know much of the aforementioned contributors personal or business arangements in South America, only about a dozen years and a dozen inches of hair separate those two collectivist witches.
http://i49.tinypic.com/346vz4k.jpg
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/L/LT_ARGENTINA_CREDIT_CARDS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-08-31-11-32-04
He better hurry up before Bullgaria turns Beargaria.
I could have sworn that the reason for Bulgaria not joining the euro was that it figured out that its level of corruption could not accommodate any further corruption.
Post of the week!
"Bulgarian banks are in better shape then ever," BBC reported the other night. Interviewed bankers said Greeks are moving over (with all their money and businesses) to Bulgaria and deposting millions.....to escape the disaster in Greece.
Joining the Euro club would be about as beneficial to the average person in Bulgaria as accepting IMF loans has been for average people in countries around the world. It's a loan shark/protection racket that bankrupts peoples, like any other debt racket.
The IMF plan:
Step 1: The IMF offers you a loan.
Step 2: If you refuse the loan, the ratings agencies waltz in and bankrupt your country by downgrading your credit rating.
Step 3: Economic Blackmail and/or CIA/Military Intervention
People on the street in nations that have declined these loans are fairing far better than those who accepted them (Iceland, as just one recent example.) The elites aren't doing as well though and are often deposed (Gaddafi, for example.)
Watch out Bulgarian leaders. The writing is on the wall, and soon, you probably will be too. Credit downgrades to come.
(note to self: After the downgrades, BTFD.)
There is a tiny problem. Bulgaria's banking system is actual.....Greek.
So a collapse of Greece means collapse of Bulgaria.
Goood! Dont u love how complex this financial circus is?
FAIL.
They speak English in Bulgaria and respect individual rights to bear arms?
Good question. Researched it.
"Licensing Requirements: In July of 2003, the Bulgarian government amended the law to make it less stringent. To obtain a permit to carry a firearm, people no longer have to pass mental status tests. Further, valid reasons for denying such a permit no longer include “misuse of drugs and alcohol”, “systematically disturbing the peace” or “putting national security in danger”.
Bulgarian is the official language, and uses the Cyrillic alphabet (like Russian, and very easy to learn -- I speak some Russian myself, which is one reason I liked "A Clockwork Orange" and chose the avatar and moniker I did, since all the slang in it derives from Russian.) I've been to Romania, next to Bulgaria, and most young people in the cities spoke decent English, as did most employees in businesses frequented by international travelers. I suspect it's much the same in Bulgaria. I'll be making a trip there soon and will just take the crash course in Bulgarian.
One factoid I like about Bulgaria: "About 97 per cent of the population live in privately owned and owner-occupied homes."
"About 97 per cent of the population live in privately owned and owner-occupied homes." That's also because they hyperinflated in 1996.
And afterwards the Lev was pegged, first to the DM and now to the EUR.
Apparently that's true. One advantage of hyperinflation is people can easily pay off large debts with worthless paper.
Its due to land reforms in transition. the same over much of CE/SEE
dont have much, but what they have is unencumbered by debt...
If they use barter or PMs we better send in NATO to "liberate" them quick!! < sarc off >
Bulgaria was sent a brochure for the Titanic. When they showed up at the dock, they were greeted with the rust bucket known as the Patna. No Thanks!
Looks like Bulgaria will soon be having an NGO sponsored 'color revolution'
Maybe this time around they'll use brown - - - to signify bullshit
The poor Eurocrats are running out of people to fleece. It's too bad the other "leaders" don't have the balls to follow Bulgaria'and Iceland's lead.
nope. it means that the eurozone is a voluntary thing (if you qualify). you can enter, you can leave, you can apply, you can abstain. you can.
hurray for Bulgaria, I hope this will stop all those idiotic rumors of whole countries being dragged kicking and screaming into the EZ
It does not make sense at the moment for Sweden or Bulgaria or anybody else to enter the EZ. In fact, the only countries that could think about it seriously are Danemark and Switzerland, and I doubt they want at all, for all that they both have a floor vs the EUR.
How did Greece ever qualify?...oh, yeah, Goldmans Sack.
Yes, good job Bulgars.
there was an immense diplomatic pressure from the US and the UK at that time
parallel to it, Bush II promised (the gall of this emperor to do such things) Turkey a ticket to the EU and the EZ
some still see it as the classic Trojan Horse Manouver. fitting, eh?
I have no idea why the US would want Greece in the EU but I seem to recall GS was involved in "grading" Greek sovereign debt. Not sure about Turkey...I think they were in (or applied to be in) even before Bush's daddy was elected...could be wrong.
it's a very, very long story and goes back to the Crimea War. In short: Russia.
Oooh, those old emperors...clearly Bush's fault ;-)
Bush II, leader of the hegemon of the Alliance called NATO, fretted about the happiness and loyalty of Greece and Turkey, two key Partners in the region. They asked him to broker an entry to the e-clubs. Greece was deemed innocuos due it's size. And as difficult to reject as the grandmother of the bride at a wedding.
Greece had always two Big Brothers and natural allies since indipendence: the UK and Russia.
This chessboard is old, and the changes are gradual. Watch Syria. Watch Lybia. Watch Egypt.
Russia's influence here is OLD. It was called "The Great Game".
Thinking on opposite side, perhaps these pre-EUZone countries have done the same thing, but have realized they can't keep the game up and are ditching?
just a thought.
Was it the Bulgarians or Romainians who dealt with vampires like Vlad The Impaler and the other vampires - The Rothschild klan?
Vlad wasn't a muslim?
/sarc Just playin' Freddie. And Vlad/Dracula/Transylvania are rooted in Romania.
Looks to me like your leaders are voluntarily putting your people in poverty via the wealth transfer mechanism of the Euro.
LOL - compared to what? the dollarzone? the poundzone? the swiss-franc-zone? pls provide your comparison or your argument looks quite empty...
Don't forget that if we had the same crisis with 17 currencies instead of one we would have faced a completely different set of issues, thanks to competitive devaluations inside a continent that is tightly integrated.
ask the Californians to devalue their dollar vs the Texan one, will ya?
I'm not saying our system hasn't become a wreck. But the difference here is we are a single sovereign nation, whereas the European Union is many soverign nations cobbled together in adhoc fashion under a single currency.
and how much poverty would have a competitive devaluation between 17 countries have created? As Bastiat said, you have to consider what can be seen and what cannot be seen.
GOLD used to be the common currency in europe. Whoever comes and starts to flap his gums about the common currency is usually out of his depth or is angling about the debt situation - and then usually saying that "it would be easier if the southerner would just devalue".
You can't be a friend of devaluation and at the same time say it's "made to fleece the people". Except if you are a banker that wants to profit from churn, that is. Choose your side.
There are at least 2 good points that you make here. Gold was the "common currency of Europe." Gold as a common currency did not prevent poverty, wars, class-warfare, the exploitation of the poor... none of these things. In fact, that gold was a common currency, contributed mightily to the fall of Spain (the first time circa 1680) as a world power. The influx of gold from the Americas caused massive inflation in Spain, and the wealthy in Spain began purchasing goods from areas with less gold, where labor was cheaper (i.e. England), which resulted in a transfer of ability, especially in the crucial crafts of ironworking and shipmaking.
In our time, debt-based currency, masked by veil of international trade, has allowed whole peoples and nations to linger for long periods without producing sufficiently. As with Spain in the 17th century, the longer the problem festers, the more skill and ability the people lose. One need only go to a welfare office in the U.S. to realize why most of the people lined up there do not do anything productive. They long ago lost any ability to do so. The problem of Southern Europe today is not simply one of "devaluing" and "leaving the Eurozone." The problem is socio-cultural as well as economic and financial. Now, take a look around the United States and look at how many people actually do something productive. Ask yourself, is the U.S. southern Europe or northern Europe. The U.S. is also the printer of the global currency du jour. If you think that inefficiencies in Southern Europe have been masked by debt-based money, you ain't seen nothing yet.
Too many hunter-gatherer/liberals, too few berry bushes and tubers to pick.
Socialism worked 10,000 years ago, today it is a failed anachronism.
Soon, conservative/fascism will be outed as the failure it is.
+1 I'd say that the difference between a gold regime (where a hoard, treasury or "war chest" has to be built up for the eventuality of war) and a fiat regime where you are immediately ready for war mainly changes how often you can go to war
Sovereign Nations should never give up the right to print their own currency. And what is wrong with COMPETITIVE devaluations is that not what capitalism is all about? Eat or be eaten and all that. The Euro was a retarded idea that made an entire unnecessary Euro bureaucracy living on the backs of everyone. Cheaper to have a currency exchange mechanism me thinks.
currency exchange mechanisms? targets for speculation. ask Soros
And you are conflating the EU and the EZ
"and how much poverty would have a competitive devaluation between 17 countries have created?"
Actually the eurozone / EU is the cause of most of the current problems in Europe, not a panacea at all. You're delusional if you believe things would be worse without it. That's exactly what the eurocrats want you to believe so they can rob you of your wealth and independance. Or perhaps you are one of them.
Also just because someone is against fiat money doesn't mean they want the euro so that there are less fiat currencies. In fact no competition in fiat money makes it even worse. So that's a straw man fallacy .
how so? and aren't the "eurocrats" in a different club? EU and EZ are not the same. ask the British
Sovereign nations are only so if they can print their own currency.
Or rather the local Rothschild central-bankster global-franchise does.
So ever who controls the money supply is the actual operative sovereign, and that isn't the state, per-sec.
Which means the Sovereign states are an illusion, because whether it's a local CB printing currency, or the ECB, its all controlled by the same Sovereign.
So who cares if they stay or go?
It makes no ultimate difference as that cow is still getting milked into oblivion by the same network of fractional-reserve scammers anyway.
So the 'state' is just the network's extended legal apparatus and enforcement-arm, so that the scammers can keep up their scam indefinitely, by force if necessary.
War is preferred, or at least not avoided much, because the two 'different' sides and states, are really the exact same network anyway.
So the network is scamming both sides seamlessly, no matter what, as long as the franchise and the 'govt' front-office of the scammers is in place.
The modern state has been designed and configured for the actual 'Sovereign', the Rothschild criminal banking clique, to always remain in ultimate control, in every country, no matter what else occurs.
Does it matter what Bulgaria does?
Countries without a Central Bank will be over-run ... unless they have a sufficent deterrent ... and eventyually, they'll be over-run, anyway.
The only real independent Sovereign Nation can be one without a Rothschild central-bank scammer.
That is the Enemy - there is no other Enemy - it is the only Enemy we have - all the rest of the 'Enemies', are in fact a derivation of this singular Enemy. When we are attacked, it will always be this singular enemy's network of influence that is ultimately responsible for unfolding events.
Sovereign Nations are - according to our shared customs - the ultimate grown-ups. They can do what they want, including marry or divorce.
Sharing a currency is like sharing a domicile, or a facility. Or a pipeline, or a space vehicle. Or whatever.
If they cease to be sovereign, then this is another story.
This "common EUR currency is a thing of the Rothschild" is a myth.
You are monumentally naive ghordius.
Goldman's man is the head of the ECB today, and that's rothschild's criminal regime right there.
Curious you want to deny the implications and call it a 'myth'
Calling the pseudo-Sovereign state the "ultimate grown-ups" ... again, monumentally naive, and more than a bit state-ist too.
and you confuse a cynicism of a different, if you want "higher" level than yours as naivity. "you guys" (a number of ZH writers that think they have swallowed the whole red pill) here use this "rothshild's regime" meme - how much do you know about it? can you explain what they did to silver in the 19th century, for example? or how their grip on gold functioned then?
note that I wrote "according to our customs". do you really think that by just adopting a personal anti-statist stance the statists stop? I'd say the world around you looks different from your model. you can still find endless legions willing to die for the glory of a flag, for example.
corruption forms it's own conduits. it's a spontaneous self-feeding process, does not need a cabal that plans it in detail
sorry, in my eyes "you guys" have several blind spots. and one of them is how empires function and behave.
don't let your own - very commandable - philosophy blind you for how "the others" think, behave and impact the world
You are too willing to put forward the position that such a network/cabal is mythic. Which certainly is not the case, as it's right in front of your nose every day. That is not a rational or intelligent proposition, so there's something not right there. And this conventional 'mature-view' reflective refined conservatism act that you portray my friend, it comes across as dubious in its sincerity at this point.
Your comment above regards the merely the mechanics, nature and self-persistence of corruption, but it's no argument against it being also a pre-considered and continuing feature as a real global investment banking and central banking network that exists everywhere today. Indeed, it is remarkably naive that you feel old banking families in the game have not maintained networks and connived in deep contingencies and planning for centuries. It's quite absurd to suggest they haven't, or didn't, as the evidence is clear and we know that that did, but that is what you are suggesting here, that it's mythic.
The Rothschild controlled network is part-and-parcel of the world that is all around us - both. A pseudo-conservative enlightened intelligencia based denial of this doesn't make it go away. The alternative to 'naive' is deliberate obfuscation, so I'm going with monumentally naive denial.
I have some respect for you ghordi, you are a unique character, and have a view and an understanding--but this is not kindergarten.
Big G you forgot the Francophony zone.
And which continent is tightly integrated ? You mean Brussels I presume.
Texas Dollars are bailing out California are they not ?
Well said.....
Dr. Engali
"Ice Ice, Baby!"
I salute them +5
You know it's bad when the Wombles don't want your crap.
Is this the vampire country?
or is that Romania. Or both?
You're thinkin of France and Romania ;-)
Naw . . . thats not where GS and JPM are headquartered
Wallachia, Romania me think
That would be Transylvania, and it's a region in Romania.
Was. It's now only referred to as historical region.
and at that time it was Hungary (and sometimes also independent)
Also, West Street in Manhattan is known to house some vampire types I believe.
and giant squid
Draghi and Rompie look like vampires to me.
I think you mean Manhattan.
Rules.
What f ing rules are those.They are making it up on the fly.
Bulgaria is just avoiding the queue for Titanics lifeboat.
The photo says it all....'How many fingers am I going to be left with after I shake this guys hand'.
I love that photo. Looks like the guy is thinking "I'm not going to shake your hand . . . you little creep."
He's probably thinking this guy's a Homo and he doesn't want to get HIV.
I could care less . . . as long as theyre not a statist trying to run my life.
Of course you could care less, you were probably picking his pubes out of your teeth and douching your ass just before typing you're reply.
"Right now, I don't see any benefits of entering the euro zone, only costs"
By definition, end of Ponzi...
That was my first thought.
You know the ponzi is over when they can't get any new suckers.
First no new suckers.
Second old suckers want money back.
In between all assets of value are drained by people in on the scam......Which is what is happening today.
It's amazing the effect that REAL poverty and hardship has on human character and by extension human judgement.
This fact alone should be enough to convince society that there IS hope for a brighter future once the dust settles after the global debt ponzi disintegrates.
Smart move!
Euro will survive... Poland will become Euro member, strengthening the monetary union defacto becoming third pillar of the currency with Germany as well France and after 10 years from now, in a retrospect they will say, it wasn't such a good move after all!
Poland has not even tied its PLN currency to EUR which btw allowed Poland to avoid resession at all (they devalued PLN relative to EUR).
So expecting Poland suddenly to jump onto EUR vagon lol is naive at best
That's not my problem how they're going to do it or when Mr. LOL! It should be done when country meets currency convergence criteria, not by 'massaging' statistics or by using currency swaps including other GS 'goodies'! Besides, after last year, there are far more important issues....
I wonder what proofreaders at WSJ are smoking these days. The poorest country in Europe is Albania.
WSJ says it´s the poorest country in the EU, not in Europe. Albania isn´t part of the EU.
Like if somebody said Alabama is the poorest in America. Not really America, but the US of A.
Hooray, a rational actor in an irrational Europe. The cack-handed powers that be in Brussels must be incredulous.
In the end, you have to ask yourself this question. Do you really want to be a member of an organization that has Messrs van Rompuy, Juncker, Barroso, and Lady Ashton, as leaders? Well, do you?
The Lew is pegged to the Euro/Mark since 1990 . Bulgaria is actually part of the Eurozone since it´s beginning.
Except they aren't on the hook for all the EFSF/ESM/T2/whatever crap the EU got itself in
Hahaha, in the case of Bulgaria it´s probably the other way round, thank god we are not on the hook for their Target 2 debts and have to pay them via ESM/EFSF. Pretending that Bulgaria is a solvent country is the most stupid thing i ever heard one of the Tylers say here.
By your definition (pegged currency), Denmark and Morocco are also part of the EuroZone ... and China is part of the US! Not.
Not to mention Switzerland.
Spot on, Denmark and others are part of the Eurozone too. Even if they still use different bank notes and coins. All moves of the Danish central bank have to be approved by the ECB, you probably do not know this.
China is an informal member of the DollarZone, courtesy of a peg that some deem a" currency manipulation".
Denmark (does not have to show the ECB anything, btw), Switzerland, Bulgaria and a few other are informal members of the EuroZone, courtesy of pegs.
And when a currency is pegged to gold, she is a member of the GoldZone.
The British Pound and the Italian Lira used to be members of the SilverZone, and their names mean "pound of silver".
The British Empire converted several countries from the SilverZone to the GoldZone, in the 19th century.
After WWII, the US convinced it's friends to enter the DollarZone "because it's as good as the GoldZone".
The UK and France agreed because they tried to re-enter the GoldZone, but it was too hard.
And after 1971 several counties tried to enter the DeutscheMarkZone, including the UK, but Soros betted against it.
It's a tale of Zones.
Now they're all entering the Twilight Zone®
Hey Lew, it's called the Bulgarian Lev.
True.
They are still running a budget deficit. If you spend 2% more than you take in every year you will eventually end up where the rest of us are.
No deficit spending by governments. This is what needs to happen or we will be perpetually fucked by the banks.
Oh well, the ECB is hiring ten new graduates with PHD's in economics to bring us out of the economic tunnel of darkness, and into the daylight.
I forgot to mention the new hires have never run anything except a faucet, since birth.
Steady as she goes retards.. Steady as she goes.
If there are any Bulgarians reading this, good for you!
DavidC
Bravo Bulgaria!
Shit meet fan. Very bad pr for the EU this. Get ready for some hasty heists by the technocrats to make up for the difference that was supposed to make up for the difference in the first place.
Bravo Bulgaria! Buya.
Now if Bulgaria,following common sense, was to take one more step further and return to the Gold Standard what do you think it would happen? War probably!
I hope that my friends in Macedonia are reading this and having very heavy second thoughts about joining the EU. After all, they have done all the work of bringing the country's infrastructure, regulations, banking etc up to EU standards in preparation for entrance - if they now just follow Bulgaria's example and walk away they will have achieved all the progress made in preparation to join with none of the pain and complications of actually joining.
That they're poor doesn't mean they're suicidal
yeah well i would be less enthusastic regarding the "bulgarian miracle"... but apparently tyler's origins are making him less objective :p
If they are willing to vote Democratic, I am sure Barry could see his way clear to put them on the same level as Puerto Rico.
Puerto Rico ought to get off the list then.. when Barrack 'Midas Touch' Obumma backs you you're only months away from oblivion (see Solyndra)
"The public rightly wants to know who would we have to bailout"
Amen brother.
But James Rickards said...
"...what the rules are and what are they likely to be in one year or two." ZING! Specifics may be uncertain, but the general principle should remain "heads I win, tails you lose." Such is how criminal enterprises typically operate.
"EU's Poorest Member Country ....Refuses To Join Eurozone"
when the poorest country turns its nose up at joining the suicide-socialist spending orgy you really know the EU is falling apart
Peak Socialism has arrived... it's all down hill from here, like you couldn't see this trainwreck coming
The guy at the end of the line is a hero.
What happens to heros.
Single Dude Travel - Guide to Bulgaria
http://www.singledudetravel.com/2011/01/intro-to-bulgaria/
Now, THIS got me REALLY WORRIED as a Bulgarian!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
On its face value, it looks the right thing to do and deserves our admirations.
BUT.... I'm afraid IT COULD ALSO BE POLITICAL PREP TALKING(CONSEQUENTLY MANEUVERING TOWARDS) "Euro is a failure, WE need to/shall do our own thing" , which could somhow "naturally" result in printing (Bulgarian LEV's DEVALUATION) should the economy deteriorate further and ruling party feels the heat.
+1 and a reason for Bulgarians to save in EUR instead of Lew. And this could put the peg and the local banks under liquidity pressure.
And all this for a decision that could have waited until 2015...
Strongly disagree with any austerity/sacrifice regime. When it comes down to this being claimed a "necessity," all that is needed within the political class is courage to distinguish debt that is legitimate and that which is not. Legitimate debt is that which is applied to endeavors venturing to raise a physical economy's productivity, such that debt incurred in bringing such endeavors to fruition can be easily repaid (and many times over at that, this by way of physical productivity gains). Illegitimate debt, on the other hand is the parasite of the casino economy effectively acting to decimate a physical economy's productivity, enslaving it in a debt trap. More than anything else, this sort of indebtedness "globalization" has delivered. Thus, if today's mountain of illegitimate debt -- the product of ill-advised deregulation encouraging asset stripping effectively diminishing the physical economy's productivity -- were simply written off and nation states to endeavor on policies wherein debts incurred are sure to be repaid by way of productivity gains to be realized once debt-financed projects are brought to completion, there would be no need for austerity/sacrifice.
You haven't thought through what you have said in the context of diminishing oil.
Bought two nice appartments with garage a few years
back in Bulgaria.Have been visiting the country frequently
since.The big difference between Bulgaria and the rest of
Europe is Bulgaria has no social system,except a little bit
of money for the elderly(something like 75 euro a person)
I just love it there,no welfare kings and queens to be seen.
A lot of people there have small gardens and grow their own
food,just to survive.I build up a nice network of local farmers
and fishermen(black see) to buy my food,honey,wine and fish from.
Everything is very cheap there and you get great sevice(half
liter beer for just 75 cents,with seeview)When I need something
to be fixed or build,plenty of people with great skills and a afordable
pricetag and happy to work for you.Last two years a real invasian
of Russian people buying houses there.The people in my
building are all Russians too and I can tell you that the steriotype
of the these people in western media is the opposite of my
own experience.These Russian people are really desent,hardworking
middle class people and I have great cooperation with them.
Some of them became good friends and I will visit them in
springtime.A lot of my friends thought I went nuts when I
bought the app there and came with lame propaganda
arguments,why it was stupid to invest there(they are so
corrupt)Glad I did not listen to the propaganda and followed
my own intuition.Fuck MSM and people believing it.
Yep, people like you will bring success to Bulgaria. Exploiting the the local wage slaves for pennies in a foreign country (most likely without paying taxes) is always fun for those who can´t afford a decent life at home.
"Cheap holidays are other people's misery"
John Lydon - Sex Pistols
The Pistols were cheated and defrauded by their manager Malcolm McLaren:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malcolm_McLaren
McLaren was born to Pete McLaren, a Scottish[4] engineer, and Emily Isaacs in post-World War II North London. His father left when he was two and he was raised by his maternal grandmother, Rose Corre Isaacs, the formerly wealthy daughter of Portuguese Sephardic Jewish diamond dealers, in Stoke Newington. McLaren told Andrew Denton on Enough Rope, that his grandmother always said to him, "To be bad is good... to be good is simply boring".
First of all I do not exploit these people because they set
the price and not me,for them it is just a welcome extra.
Second I am not responsibble if they pay taxes on their
extra income,I sure hope they do not.
Third I have a decent live at home,because I work
very hard in the factory at home.I have to admit it
is getting harder and harder because of all the non
productive people here living on my back.
You feel sorry for them they changed their system
and are no longer communist.
I also support the local school with funds for books.
Bulgaria and me are just a perfect match.
Ever heard of freedom in exchanging goods and
services.
Ever heard of freedom in exchanging goods and services.
Economic freedom is the most basic of human rights.
Without a stable currency, it's an illusion.
Don't they nod their heads to mean 'no' and shake their heads to mean 'yes' there?
When you spend less then what you produce somebody else spends the surplus you create.
The Article is a load of crap.
Bulgaria has the advantage of being a energy giant chiefly because of Soviet era investments ....thats about it really.
At any given time all available energy is burned ....it is not saved....how can it be ?
So they export electrical energy and its burned somewhere else.....thats a + on GDP...
Good Boy Bulgaria.
Debt is a metaphysical concept - it is not a real good - what are they saving pray tell ?
When countries take debt SERIOUSLY they are generally pushed into current account surplus......i.e.they supply more real goods to the Big boys.
www.tradingeconomics.com/bulgaria/current-account-to-gdp
But if a country is sovergin and not too corrupt it can print to reduce the inherent waste of the credit money system without throwing people off a monetary cliff which Bulgaria has a tendencey to do.
E.g. - print money - give it to a state railway company - reduce waste via lower fares and thus less car use - burn the surplus on end use consumption or future investment........
I.e. the country becomes sovergin over its own borders and resourses......it becomes more of a national economy.
Zero hedge must try to understand capital has been superior to labour for 200 years at least if not more.
You don't acheive much when Labour makes sacrifices.....(Labour BTUs are now a tiny ratio of work) for what ? for who ? for Capital Baby.
The holders of capital get to burn more capital (Oil Gas etc at your expense)
Its a sick game.
Don't buy the austerity sweets.
Why would any country think of joining that euro rape-fest now?What a frickin' joke
UK current account
Look what happens after the Big bang of 1986............
www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/current-account-to-gdp
When oil was cheap the Financial centres ran oil into these countries to build stuff that was completly useless to its long term productive capacity but yet seek a yield off the debt created....think of all those Bulgarian Apartments.......
When oil is hard to find they drive these countries in current account surplus ....which is a form of energy surplus...that surplus must flow to areas of defecit........
we had the same "news" 7.11.12
bulgaria said about the same thing but zH did not cover it then
wolf did:>
not sure how a nation which recently borrowed over a billionEUR is "short" the currency, tho
changed gooberments ('09) and seems to be a very staunch US miltary ally (condieRice got them into NATO and put 3 US-"total access" bases there + at least $143 million to "help" them. but the figure is 2-3 years old and is from foggy bottom, i would think)
they do seem to have met the EZ requirements, but why "join" if they can borrow in EUR without it?
they may be a little more closely aligned with the US State department than is evident in any of the material appearing here/NYT/MSM
they have an "american" (english language) university
and things have gone very well for them since they joined NATO and got a fiscally responsible goobermint in '09, too
"roses"! and the EZ is "thorns"!
what could be simpler to understand than that?
so why repeat the same news as 7.11?
i think i can see some possibilities, but since the information isn't "given" altho the nyt writes of [Paste} :>
slewie has found by reading elsewhere is that bulgaria has not completed the legal framework to join the currency EZ union and so could not have been allowed in in july OR august
their eurobond loan is said to be earmarked for "infrastructure"
my sense is the nyt is "straining" to explain things by "sentiment change" whereas perhaps it is simply condie-bilary calling the shots
and again it also seems strained to me that bulgaria is 'short the EURO'
their currency is pegged to the DM which in turn is pegged to the euro. so the LEV is pegged to the euro and has been since it was "revalued" 1000:1 after being "devaued" 1000:1 previously
this leads to the "possibility" that the Lev is not "correctly" valued and may be somewhat like greece, when it joined the currency; the banksters screwed the pants offa bruxelles with greece, imo and greece got "too many euros" / unit so now all the "pundits" say: well, they can leave the EZ and then devalue the drachma and pay us back properly
so altho bulgaria looks really good on the surface, greece did too, but it was a bankster-generated con-game which no one understood at the time; we had not seen it before would be the reason there
slewie is left wondering if one scratched the surface of bulgaria, one might find in completing the "legal details" of being ELIGIBLE for the EZ, some things which have not been "magically fixed" in the last 3 years, but simply appear to be fixed
if this were true it would mean we are being lied to by the EU, the EZ, the US, bulgaria, the NYT and zH [and possibly NATO]
could such a thing be possible?
in pain language what i am saying is that if their currency is pegged too high, as was perhaps the case when greece came in, and they just borrowed over 1BIL EUR which would have been un-possilbe in 2009-11 due to "structural" econ problems, this is the best course for them
or to put it a bit differently: once condie got her foot in the door and things began to take shape, was there some "financial egineering" available to bulgaria by the time the "fiscal irresponsibility" was corrected politically in 2009?
in posting these ideas and slewieAnalysis i will own them as "conjectural"
i can't defend or prove them, but i can sure as hell SEE them
now, about that "spook" connection. 'tyler'-bot seems to have not 'known' these articles might be "of interest" and you can see above what zH deems relevant :>
here is the foggy bottom page :> Bulgaria [condie & bilary]
and here is the "news from 7.11.12 which i mentioned in opening :> Bulgaria economy: Bulgaria in no rush to join euro zone
On July 11th the finance minister said that Bulgaria has nothing to gain from entering ERM2 at this stage, adding that joining the euro zone will remain on hold until the problems of the single currency have been resolved.
and :> Bulgaria has met the four key criteria for euro zone entry: government finance (debt and budget deficit), inflation, interest rates and exchange rates. It now needs to fulfil only some technical requirements, such as harmonisation of laws. [my emph.]
and here is a link about the bond underwriters and CONFLICT w/ marioECB around the devilish details of the deal:> Bulgaria: BNP Paribas, HSBC, Raiffeisen to Manage Bulgaria's Eurobond Float - Novinite.com - Sofia News Agency[7.6.12]
IN CONCLUSION :>
thanks, slewie, you wrote a better recap than the one I wanted to do today.
Great summary, rodent! Very astute conjecture on the "Israeli" bus passengers (perhaps they were "only" Sephardim?).
Interesting.
US State Dept on side ... check
Tel Aviv on side ... check
Rome on side ... check (photo of the Bulgarian PM obediently kissing the Pope's hand)
Tyler on side ... natürlich
Another Khazarian tile locked into the jigsaw.
This from wiki
Mainline, passenger and freight train services on OSE lines are operated and provided by TrainOSE S.A., a former OSE subsidiary which is now an independent state-owned company.
TrainOSE also operates the suburban and commuter rail services of Greece (called Proastiakos), on a modernised network around the cities of Athens, Thessaloniki and Patras. Proastiakos was founded as a separate company, which became later part of TrainOSE.
Due to the financial problems of Greece TrainOSE has come to suspend regional services on following lines:
Athens – Alexandroupolis (although the connection Thessaloniki – Alexandroupolis remains in service)
Edessa – Florina
Patras – Pyrgos – Kalamata
Kalamata – Messene
Corinth – Nafplio – Tripoli
Since 13th February 2011, due to the Greek financial crisis and subsequent budget cuts by the Greek government, all international services have been suspended,[9] as outlined below.
Thessaloniki – Skopje – Belgrade
Thessaloniki – Sofia – Bucharest
Thessaloniki – Istanbul (Dostluk/Filia Express)
Athens – Sofia
Dork – these actions do not save real real resourses – it merely pushes people over monetary and physical cliffs so the national resourses can be transfered to the core so that they can waste them and call this waste “Growth”
The Greeks have recently bought the top of the line Swiss Stadler GTW 2/6s yet they appear empty of passengers in the video.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9ZS5RPq1wg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ovuKjLBc2w
These same Stadlers were bought by Austin & Denton Texas recently.
We are witnessing both a epic waste of people and surprisingly the more rational capital investments.
One can only conclude this is a form of all out warfare by the core to steal those very valuable capital and commons investments – as when the money supply increases again they will become very valuable private fiefdoms farming the people
The Euro is a expression of Pure evil.
If Greece was running a national economy again it could print money to subsidise its rail industry rather then close it down to save what ?
So people must now drive and therefore suck in more imports..............you See the Euro boys want us as vassels of international trade.
It will crush the weakest while we continue to import German cars and Saudi oil.
oh, you had me at "The Euro is a expression of Pure evil." - then ask for the dollarization of Ireland. ;-)
@Ghordius
We are exporting high value $s for oil anyway.......
We are in the dollar international zone but now have no domestic currency which could work to stop these same $ exports.
Its the worst of all worlds.
E.g. - our railways are shutting down for lack of Euros which means we export even more $ss as its cheaper to drive to Dublin to Cork then get a train.
This post 1987 Europe was a FED setup.
I disagree. You (the Irish economy) work on an EUR cost basis and export valuable products, among other things and services (including Irish Angus beef), for which you mainly get EURos since your export markets are in the eurozone (as your main import suppliers).
Part of this income in EURos is then converted to Dollars in order to buy oil, among other things.
Ireland could exit the eurozone and peg to the dollar -> entry in the dollarzone. It's a policy decision.
Ireland could also go it's own way with an own currency floating freely, though this would imply other effects and further hard decisions.
@Ghordius
In many ways its simply a question of a lack of Punts...which means people don't have money for the Bus...they then fall out of the modern world.
The 2011Irish energy balance figures only point to a small decline in private transport energy consumption although is very difficult to calculate accuretly given the cross border situation.
Private car oil consump Y2010 : 1,895 KTOE
Y2011 : 1,843 KTOE
In the 1980s we all walked to school or got the Bus and very few had oil central heating……given that women have become “empowered ” or at least powered they drive their kids to school.
Irish residential oil use (heating)
Y1990 :380KTOE (private car:926KTOE)
Y1992 :300KTOE (delayed response to the Iraq oil shock of late 1990 or cold winter in 1990 ? ) (private car :1,012KTE)
Y2010 :1,267 KTOE (peak year ,cold winter)…….(private car : 1,895KTOE)
Y2011 :1,035 kTOE (private car : 1,843KTOE)
Its the last shoe to drop I imagine.
Meanwhile the remaining productive economy continues to contract on a massive scale …. there was accusations of the revenue closing down a freight firm to get less then a million euros back last week.
http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0828/irha-hauliers-fuel.html
Road freight Y2010 : 733 KTOE……this figure is after the amount of tonnes lifted has been reduced to a third of the peak……..(end of heavy construction material haulage)
Road freight Y2011 : 637 KTOE……. another massive drop over and above the carnage of 2007 -10
International aviation consumption is also down – and its very very big -from 774KTOe to 604Ktoe ……in one Year !
Domestic aviation no longer really exists in Ireland – after having a boom from the late 80s to about 2006 ,reaching a peak of 25 KTOE ~ ten or more years ago.
Y2010 :14 KTOe
Y2011 : 6KTOE
Rail is unchanged from 2010 although its perhaps carrying less passengers
40 KTOE oil
4 KTOE electricity
Irish oil home heating also down big
From 1,267 to 1,035 KTOE (although we had a much milder winter also)
Looking at historical Greek trade balance figures (in million Euro) published by the Greek CB……
Y2000
Trade Balance excluding ships & oil : – 18,940
Oil : -2,986
Ships : 0
Y2008
Trade Balance excluding ships & oil : – 27,189
Oil : -12,154
Ships : -4,705
Y2009 ($ price drop of oil) :
Trade balance excluding ships & oil : -19,813
Oil : -7,596
Ships : -3,356
Y2011 ($ oil price rise)
Trade balance excluding ships & oil : -12,833
Oil : – 11,126
Ships : -3,261
And quarterly oil balance figures….
Q1 2010 : -2,697
Q1 2011 : -3,331
Q1 2012 : -3,142
Quarterly balance excluding oil and ships……(here
it appears to be reducing its defecit)
Q1 2010 : -4,945
Q1 2011 : -3,544
Q1 2012 : -2,372
So a country must effectivally shut down its rail system because it does not have enough Euros to run the system….this increases its oil imports / $ exports , so it must crush the lives of its former citizens…..hence the reduction in goods consumption outside of oil and ships…..
Great is it not ?
We have the same mentality on this Isle…..
A “economist” who was deeply involved in Irish transport policey in the 70s – a one Colm McCarthy…the man loves concrete highways & wishes to shut down the railways because they are too expensive in Euro terms……
But he must appeal to the lowest form of commercial banking nationalism – blame the evil ECB for not burning Bondholders yet preach domestic austerity at home to remain withen the Euro…….
The word Scoundrel comes to mind.
The input output dynamics are all skewed without a national currency.
This means too much oil is used for consumption and not enough for real work.
"energy is defined as the ability to do work"
The French Know this - they are preparing........either for a projection outward of oil to the edge of Europe or a return to a national economy again - they are getting both sides of the plate covered with these investments.
The Tramway de Dijon was brought into service ahead of schedule (emergency ?) on the 1rst of september.
Although a the full service (second line ) will not be operational until December.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZ24KwdSmrU
I feel with you. It's very little, I know. Nevertheless, in the Irish Tragedy there was a government with 60% of debt/GDP that was supposed to protect an economy that was dubbed "Celtic Tiger" at the time. And then the bubble in housing started. And then, at the moment when AngloIrish could have failed, the Irish Government protected the creditors and this gave your country a freaking additional 60%.
Afterwards, there were elections, and the new government could have done something there - perhaps not much, but something.
And it failed, too. Now the anti-statist crowd says "this is what happens when you let governments in charge".
I say "this is why quality is important everywhere, including government".
Your country is still crawling out of this hole, but the improvements are visible, IMHO. If you believe in the energy crisis, then you probably agree that harder-than-now money will be the consequence out of it. And of course railroads, as you point out.
Your country is still tough, and is exporting. I'm optimistic for Ireland, sometimes it pays to be among the first to feel the pain.
Brother can you spare a Lev.
Smart move. You never want to hand over your money printer to a foreign entity...EVER.
I've been in Bulgaria for two months. My son was in the hospital here and I can tell you first hand that this is not a place where anyone would want to move. The people are very poor and very broken. All of the pubic facilities here have gone to hell, the police are corrupt and everything is run by the mafia. The country is the pefect example of what happens when a government falls and there is a vacum left. If people on ZH think that a collapse is going to benefit anyone they should come here and check out what it's like when a system actually does collapse, the devestation is brings and how long it takes to right itself.