This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Even JP Morgan Is Staying Out Of This "Frightening, 10 Sigma" Market
A note by JP Morgan released today contains the following gem: "The quite frankly frightening volatility in the Italian bond market this week together with the rapid pace of political developments (nascent new governments in Greece and Italy) confirms not only a new, more extreme phase in the European crisis, one in which the very irrevocability of the euro is now up for discussion, but also the disconnect that now exists with the currency markets. Yes EUR/USD dropped but the worst daily decline was a 3-sigma move compared to the 10 sigma surge in BTP yields Wednesday followed by the 6-sigma drop today. European developments are not only dominating all other idiosyncratic fundamentals in the currency markets and leading to an extreme lack of differentiation in currency performance (chart 1), they are generating volatility without meaningful or tradable direction. We have steered clear of any substantive cash positions in recent weeks and make no excuses for staying sidelined, especially as liquidity is likely to tail-off quicker into this year-end period than is normal in view of the degree of frustration many investors fell with their performance and the market’s volatility." So, aside from all the rearview mirror pros on twitter and various chatboards, if even JPM is staying out of this sad yoyo excuse for a market who is actually trading?
»
- 10254 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Is this a rhetorical question? I am confused.
German nuclear powerplant meltdown the real reason Merkel "suddenly went 180 degrees" and called for a nuclear free Germany?
http://www.prisonplanet.com/united-nations-agency-downplays-increased-ra...
Stick a fork on that eurozone, it's nooooked!
Are rhetorical questions really so bad?
It's an HFT vs HFT front running fight to the finish. May the best algos win!
Spot on
http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/14604291?f=cfoinside
Didn't take too long for CFO to catch on to what ZH has been reporting the better of two years...
you can not have price stability without investment flow stability. frequetn > 3 Sigma movements in the investment world encourages more savings, less consumption, and investments, as liquidity preferences converge to cash to stay agile.
So the Central Banks in their intervenionist, ad-hoc market moves, are causing investment flow instability, which will will lead to price instability in the medium term. Which is against their mandate.
Trading short term stability, for medium-long run chaos is not an economical solution. .
#occupywallstreet.
"who is actually trading?"
US robotics of federal reserve.
With Klepto survival the stakes
And global finance with the shakes
What length will they go
To maintain status-quo?
Quite frankly - Whatever It Takes!!!!!
Kudos! That is an amazingly succinct description of what's really going on.
I disagree. I have put on small positions twice and the HFT's went to work with no hesitation. Like a blood hound
chasing a rabbit. They attacked what was a base in a stock and dropped it.
If it was the FED they would not attack. They would want traders to buy something.
Especially retail. The thirst is for anybody's money. Whoever the sucker would be.
Look at the blow ups. This is not the FED. It is the thieves who control the market.
Like the Banksters, HFTs or Institutions of TPTB who manipulate all.
The good thing is. Their responce verifies that there is much more supply of equities than buyers.
Look out below. The trigger is pulled. Now we just need them to shoot it down. Only they know when!!!
So: BEN, TIM AND SUPER-MARIO... TWO PLAYERS AND ONE VIDEO-GAME... VERY SOON GAME OVER...
INSERT COIN
INSERT COIN
INSERT COIN
...
That would be "not me" and "Ida Know!" :>D
Plunge Protection Team.
It has to be.
The problem is that pension funds and such are still in this market.
My problem all along with Armageddon bets has been when it happens just who is going to have money to pay off their debt to you.
Out this market and glad.
This seems like a pretty good place to start shorting. I like the risk/reward at these levels and I agree with my friend Peter's post that we've seen the market top. I don't think we can break through the 200 DMA again although we're pretty close.
http://real-economik.blogspot.com/2011/11/have-markets-topped.html
do you really think you can make money shorting 'anything' right now? do you also think you can stop a freight train just because it is on the wrong track?
Agree--it's the directionless nature of the current market that makes it impossible to trade in either direction, not to mention the plethora of ETFs (seems like a couple hundred new ones roll out each week) which have made single stock selection a worthless skill except for insiders.
@ count_de_monee Seems like is not a good idea. Wait for conformation. The trigger.
Been thinking of entering FAZ if it goes down just a bit more. This isnt a buy and hold, more of a short term (less then two weeks) trade.
My mom
getco is now the buyer and seller of every trade in the ultimate liquidity provider scam.
"ultimate volume provider"
Fixed it. LOL.
I thought JPM traders had balls. Guess I stand corrected.
Italy bonds aren't even that cheap. I'd buy Greece before Italy at today's prices.
Ah....the traders are getting mauled: true. But the buy and holders in the vanguard balanced index are having a perfectly good year. So, no one is trading the market, and if they are they are losing money, but the investors have done fine so far this year.....
And the market is discounting the mother of all inflation that will be forthcoming. Once again, like him or hate hime for the pimp that he is, Buffett is kicking ASS as he buys every major market blow out and is killing it this year.
Have you gone full retard rus? Buffet is kicking ass?
Ummmn....yes full retard. yes. But to answer your question I'm just calling it the way I see it (I'm not advocationg the old bastard for god sakes). Buffett was buying
Mastercard at 280. Dollar General at 30. 7 billion in other equities at the end of Sept., etc.
So, yes, he is kicking ass. If my observaton makes me "full retard" then, okay. I'd agree. Yes, I've gone full retard.
Warren "king of crony capitalism" Buffett? Give me a fucking break. If you and I had a direct connect to .gov and the bernank, we too would be killing it. It's alot easier when you know what TPTB are going to do before it happens. That guy is just an extension of .gov plain & simple.
Don't forget BAC. I'm sure Buffoon would probably be paid first, but...
what a dog!
never go full retard ...
@jdelano Buffet is an ass.
Huh?
"But the buy and holders in the vanguard balanced index are having a perfectly good year." - um.. VBINX is only up 2.76% as of yesterday. Not exactly a perfectly good year.
Meanwhile, "Buffett is kicking ASS as he buys every major market blow out and is killing it this year." Huh? Um.. you might want to check the chart for BRK-A for this year. Meanwhile, how's his BAC investment doing? If I'm not mistaken, he's still underwater.
In other words, you have too much man-crush on Buffett.. and are over-exaggerating returns on VBINX.
3% is a great return compared to the vast majority of the 2 and 20 crowd this year. That's my only point. I'm long term silver bull though.....
And that's what my money is on for the long term. it's funny how the ZH crowd hates general observations. I'm a ZH'er folks. Love it here.
But I do like to test the testy waters here. It's fight club afaterall. And I'm a fighter.
Pretty pathetic to me, considering my CD account a few years ago used to pay 3.5.
I guess if I price other 'investments' Im up way over market average, my AR15's most of those I bought for about $800 years ago, they easily cost double that now.
And damn ammo OMFG 500 round cases I was buying 5 years ago for $120 now go for $350. So theres that.
What do the CDs pay today?
More people need to call you out as much as you shit talk others. Where is that dirty bomb attack on NYC you were calling for?
Belarus is on the money. Hedges and traders have gotten kicked in the teeth this year. Yes, yes there are some exceptions but the balanced fund he mentions has done ok especially for the price.
Another balanced fund is ABRYX. Most people here probably couldn't beat that return this year. If they are honest anyway
LMAO if youre saying 3% gain 'investing' is pretty good compared to a certified deposit interest, then I totaly make my case, again. Move along clown.
BTW, 'I called for a 'dirty bomb attack on NYC' WTF?
If it wasn't you then I apologize but I'm pretty sure you were the one lambasting the bulls for going long when Glenn Beck was calling for a dirty bomb attack on the OWS peeps.
When CDs are near zero I do consider 3% good.
Again. If I confused you with someone else I apologize.
Now I did say yesterday I did say 'Wouldnt it be great to show up to some Best Buy on Black Friday and machine gun a few hundred of em'! Interesting news coverage anyway and might put a damper on the consumerfest reporting for a year.
Well yea, if CD's are near 0%, then 3% is 'kinda good'....point is a few years ago that 3% CD return was considered booooooooring.
Dude, I can buy AR15's for under 1,000 today.
Or a Vz.58 for $700
If your'e still in the market, you're a long tail event away from destitution. And if you think a long tail risk is unlikely in a market where > sigma 3 moves, and central bank intervention, are frequent, you deserve what's coming to you.
pennies in front of steamroller
#occupywallstreet
isnt this where the contrarian view comes into play? everybody staying out, we should be jumping in?
Ooh ooh ooh I am! I love FAZ! I love the fact that FAZ capitalizes off of crappy economic policies and gutless politicians.
im getting DOGged by this rising market, but i bought more today. when is this gonna get real???????????????
Who is actually trading? Robotarder with his Fantasy Stock League lineup du jour.
the last 30 minutes will be a good clue when they have to turn the machines off for the weekend. If JPM is confused on what to do I'm sure not many trading firms will keep open positions over the weekend
skynet is making trades with the matrix...
I'm moving the market. There i said it!
JPM statement translation: "Momma mia! That's ah spicy ah meatball ah."
Artificially Intelligent Pussies.
Back in my day, you had to chisel market orders into stone tablets. Then float them down stream on rafts where scribes and carrier pigeons would relay the message to men on horseback. Up hill in the snow.
And NO it wasn't BOTH ways. There was only one way, they were brave men who accepted their fates and made their mark(ets).
Please. Get off my lawn.
African pigeons, or European pigeons?
The guys who collect my garbage twice a week are long and my lawnman is short.
Answer: Chinese vacuum tubes.
Microchips talking to each other all day. +200 DOW woodies every morning. Oil $100. And the USD makes moves daily that would have sent markets into sheer panic just a few years ago.
'World reserve currency' -.80 just today....oh but its all good though, 1,800 P/E markets are up.
So true, Dog. The criminal syndicate killed the market in 2008...and it is no less dead today.
Its really pointless to even pay any attention to it today, like watching a corpse with electrodes hooked up to it, zap it once in a while and it flops about... big deal.
who is trading?
uh, me
The vacuum tubes in my head need repair though.
http://vegasxau.blogspot.com
IF YOU BUY A BOARD LOT OF ANYTHING YOU GET A THANK YOUI NOTE AND AN AUTOGRAPHED PICTURE OF oBAMA
Translation: "We've spent the last four months building short positions. We're now short."
who is actually trading?
These people?
The guys selling Italian Bonds are buying US equities. That's my theory. What else is there?
Trades need to be made on Ebay to keep everyone honest and to cut out the middle men. (Snark or not?)
IN THE REAL WORLD IT IS CALLED WASH TRADING IN THIS FANTASY WORLD IT IS CALLED VOLUME
frightening volatility!
note1: see appendices 347 thru 2856
Hard to believe that JPM (along with all the other systemically 'important' FI's) aren't influencing the market in some way-- whether it be using their favorite puppet: central banks.
JPM is at new low of the day w/ 20 min to close. This was just another pump for the smart money to leave.
Pussies.
It's fixed.
Get used to it.
It's all fixed - in every sense of the word.
I'm out. Two or three weeks I sold all my positions and bought GLD and am keeping a little cash on the side. I have no idea what's going on with the markets and have come to the conclusion that the fix is in.
Its musical chairs my friends. Even though the PPT hast managed to alsways prop the S&P back above 1200 in order to have a cushon when the next wave of bad news comes I would not bet the house on this going on ad infinitum. Eventually the music will stop and there wont be a single chair to set your ass down on.
Who actually trade? :) I did a check in one of the markets in Europe where I can see who does what....
There were 3 institutions representing approx 50% of trades. However net flows from them were LESS than 3%.......
Want the names? Credit Suisse Morgan Stanley Societeé Generale. So The three largest made half of the trades, but did not
shift more than 3% one way....
My take is that any market, globally is absoluteley dead, Stone dead. Retail investors are gone, for a very long time. Confidence is lost.
We will see further bloodbath in the financial sector. There will be massive layoffs even from here. There simply is no money to earn. This will go on for years, and if you
want to make maney you have to figure out how the guy who wrote the computer programs can be so stupid that they maka all markets go the same way in Europe and US when the Euro goes one or the other way.
Any sound analyst know that a strong Euro is an absolute catastrophy for Euroepean stocks.
Yay! confidence is lost!
now we'll see whose horse is best; c'mon down to the glue factory!
stag- like molasses in november
-flation like turbo hy-speed multi-myth-0-matic vapor speed moneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneymoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneymoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneymoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneymoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprintmoneyprint
Who actually trade? :) I did a check in one of the markets in Europe where I can see who does what....
There were 3 institutions representing approx 50% of trades. However net flows from them were LESS than 3%.......
Want the names? Credit Suisse Morgan Stanley Societeé Generale. So The three largest made half of the trades, but did not
shift more than 3% one way....
My take is that any market, globally is absoluteley dead, Stone dead. Retail investors are gone, for a very long time. Confidence is lost.
We will see further bloodbath in the financial sector. There will be massive layoffs even from here. There simply is no money to earn. This will go on for years, and if you
want to make maney you have to figure out how the guy who wrote the computer programs can be so stupid that they maka all markets go the same way in Europe and US when the Euro goes one or the other way.
Any sound analyst know that a strong Euro is an absolute catastrophy for Euroepean stocks.
i liked your 4th post
but your fifth post is just as good!
No love of technical analysis on inter-day contracts huh ZHers?
Bollinger bands, trendlines, triangles, support/resistance, tight channels, 50% fib retracements, short skirts and point and figure I can wrap my dumb assed head around.
The options not so much. I hate the Greeks more than Germany.
Been out of the market and staying out. I am in cash only (not in the bank) and buying the dips in physical gold and silver and taken delivery. Meanwhile I am enjoying practizing my Vz.58.
I think the problem with intra day techs is that the moves are so damned quick! Sometimes the 1 min bars make more sense than anything longer. So getting in to bounces or sell offs early requires patience, discipline and speed.
The delusional rantings of a third rate sales broker at JPM. How does JP stay out when they ARE the market? TD one should stop posting such embarrassing rubbish