The Ever Diminishing Returns Of Central Bank Intervention, Or QE As The Godfather Trilogy

Tyler Durden's picture

To anyone who is still confused about why the Fed is on the fence about QE 3, the chart below, inspired by David Rosenberg's daily note, should explain it all. While we have repeatedly shown that the intervention of central banks in the FX arena gets progressively weaker with each incremental incursion by central planning into formerly free and efficient markets, the same can be said for not only fiscal stimulus (today's bankruptcy of Solyndra being merely the ironic cherry on top of the house of cards), the same is most certainly true about monetary intervention as well, in the form of LSAP or any other form of duration extension. And while many have already explained extensively why QE was a flop, here is Rosie with an angle we had not considered before: movie trilogies: "it's not as if QE2 accomplished anything except a blip on the screen as far as the market was concerned, and it elicited no lasting benefit for the economy either. QE1 did work but that was when the system needed to be saved - the S&P rallied 74% on that program. QE2 was nothing more than a gimmick shrouded in deflation concerns [uhm, this coming from Rosie? we'll let it slide] that never materialized, and during this program the stock market ended up rising just 16%. And so what will QE3 bring except more in the way of diminishing returns and resource misallocation caused by central bankers attempting to play around with mother nature by manipulating asset prices? Call it the equivalent to the Godfather Triology: Godfather I was epic; Godfather II not quite as good but still fine; and Godfather III was a dud." And as for the appropriate visual...

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Space BATS's picture

Time to go batshit.

dlmaniac's picture

GF2 is actually deeper in its content tho imo.

spiral_eyes's picture

I think QE is gonna be more like the Alien quadrilogy. Chestbursters, bitchez!

narnia's picture

Godfather 2 was the best movie ever made.  Even without Brando, it's better than 1.

It is insulting to use the GF series as an analogy to the Fed balance sheet comedy, which is more like Police Academy.

Nascent_Variable's picture

I second this outrage.  Comparing the fuckery and incompetence of central bankers to masterpieces like Godfather I and II is an insult.  Even Police Academy is a stretch.

I'd go with Weekend at Bernie's - a corpse dancing around again and again, while the great unwashed around it have no idea it's dead.

CrashisOptimistic's picture

Sounds right.  Diminishing jolts to the string which is pushed.

Want more consternation?  Behold the super committee and its fights about to begin.

Behold Brent's spread now enroute to $27, when it was never anything other than $0 in all history prior to about January.

Behold the EU about to re-enter the arena, as avoidance of Labor Day examination of disastrous August-red 401K accounts loses prominence in the algorithms and they return to mulitnational earnings.

Don't drink the Koolaid that equities are anticipating QE3.  Equities were told to rise this week because of fear of the end of August 401K numbers that are leisurely examined during Labor Day weekend.  Never ever forget . . . 2/20 requires money under management.  When it flees, it never returns.

trav7777's picture

ZIRP is already a sign that returns in the aggregate have diminished to 0.  The bank cannot even lend money at 0%.  Think about what that means.

QE1 was a bigger bang at any rate in its fundamental structure than QE2 was, so comparing them apples-to-apples is specious.

??'s picture

specious

please do elaborate

potatomafia's picture

QE3, Go big or go home!!! 

 

WWIII - Earth vs Mars!

 

Stimulate me damnit!

Space BATS's picture

The bernaks beard does have a purpose.

nmewn's picture

So much money lost...so much time...

Posted:

Aug 31, 2011 9:50 AM EDT

Updated:

Aug 31, 2011 9:50 AM EDT

"RAEFORD, N.C. (AP) - The foreclosure sale of North Carolina's first ethanol plant is drawing an opening bid about equal to the loan guarantees that taxpayers gave as an incentive to develop renewable energy sources.

The Fayetteville Observer reported Wednesday (http://bit.ly/qZwZuO ) that the Clean Burn Fuels plant in the works since 2005 brought a $35 million bid from its primary lender during a foreclosure sale.

The plant's owners filed for bankruptcy protection in April. The Raeford-based company said the price of ethanol had not kept up with the surging price of corn."

http://www.wbtv.com/story/15366375/ncs-1st-ethanol-plant-draws-35m-foreclosure-bid

Perhaps a little less central planning is in order?

CrashisOptimistic's picture

Perhaps physics is in order.

There are 26.8 megajoules of energy in a kilogram of ethanol.

There are 45 megajoules of energy in a kilogram of gasoline.  And it requires 1 gallon of gasoline to merely produce a gallon of ethanol.  So that 45/26.8 ratio is horribly worse.

I don't give a fuck what Bernanke does.  Physics and Geology win this war.

nmewn's picture

And of course, for the legions of humanitarian dupes waking up to the nightmare they have created, corn rests easier on the tummy than gasoline ;-)

??'s picture

corn for feed, corn for sweetner, corn for cereal, corn on the cob

it's all GMO. so better in the tank than the dinner table

Prometheus418's picture

It's really light on details and specifics, but I'm tired of nothing but terrible news.

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/206600/20110831/alloy-can-produce-hydrogen-from-sunlight.htm

Here's to hoping these guys are on to something worthwhile.  Gut feeling is that if it's not just senseless hype, it's a hell of a lot better than burning corn.

trav7777's picture

did they even fucking ASK the taxpayers if they thought this stupid shit corn ethanol was a good fucking idea?

Corn ethanol is in the aggregate a NEGATIVE ROI behavior.  This is the most utterly batshit stupid thing anyone can do.

I propose that the "taxpayers" give me a guarantee to pump water uphill during the day so that I can release it at night in order to supplement the lack of solar energy after dark.  If corn ethanol makes sense, surely my idea is even better, right?

scatterbrains's picture

what I like about ethanol is all the clueless yuppies that put their $400 mowers out on the curb after one or two seasons because they don't know why it wont start and they tired of getting gouged by the mower repair guy.

Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

Stabil........... Give me Stabil.....

technovelist's picture

Sorry, but that makes FAR more sense than corn ethanol.

Libertarians for Prosperity's picture

 

 

Here's your reason why corn ethanol is so heavily subsidized.... 

http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-241.html

 

mcguire's picture

yeah... NIA did a great job on an account of what QE4 will look like..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2N8gJSMoOJc

Space BATS's picture

The U.S is nothing but a margin nation. We live on margins.  We don't produce our own Oil, Cars, Computers, Coffee, etc.

Nothing is made in America anymore, we are forced to live on the margins, so easing should squeeze those margins even more so even more people can be laid off.

When will people get it, the easing of the past 3 years did not create jobs, it destroyed jobs.  In a nation of margins, not one job will have been created when you squeeze the margin.

Bring the Gold's picture

Most people are completely economically and financially illiterate. Nobody who understands this stuff thinks it creates jobs. People who understand it think one of three things:

1) It's madness for all the obvious reasons (i.e. the ethical and/or long term thinker outlook).

2) It's great cause they can skim some money out of the market (i.e. the short-sighted selfish ass opinion).

3) It's great because the lower classes are losing everything which can be bought for pennies on the dollar, while their debts are inflated away (i.e. the Banker motto).

Nobody who understands this stuff truly believes it creates jobs.

Everybodys All American's picture

Politicians have bought in to the globilization and free trade garbage and it has in turn wrecked American middle class jobs. No one will do the right thing in DC which is to challenge the status quo. These guys are bought and paid for to continue sending yours and my future wealth overseas. If you remember the last time you heard about this was when Obama was running for president but not a damn thing has been done since to change it. Tariffs need to be put back in place to level the playing field and can't come soon enough.

ManufacturedOpinion's picture

Whoooaaa !

Not so fast !!

Actually, the USA still DOES manufacture something

.

.

.

YOUR OPINION !!!

Scisco's picture

Don't forget USA's #1 export DEBT! It's an asset.

sellstop's picture

Stimulus works when the private sector and individuals have had a chance to save. Sooner or later the stimulus will work. The problem with the last couple years has been that it was too early to work.....

gh

IMA5U's picture

stimulus works when a power hungry socialist is not our president

sellstop's picture

I suppose we need one of those power hungry Nazi republicunts.

Medea's picture

"formerly free and efficient markets"

 

Sure they were.

dolph9's picture

Point taken but Godfather III was actually quite an interesting movie, it's just that it was overshadowed by two of the best movies of all time.

mcguire's picture

want to watch a lecture on the nature of reality?  watch this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKn8U1XwTxI

mynhair's picture

I don't get it.  Close my EUR short, or double on my USDHUF long?

I hate this decision shit.

alien-IQ's picture

as was the case with the Godfather Trilogy....part 3 will suck.

Mediocritas's picture

Well, at least it will be really easy to produce an updated chart in the future following implementation of QE3. Just delete the question mark. Done.

djsmps's picture

Bad analogy as far as i'm concerned.

Call it the equivalent to the Godfather Triology: Godfather I was epic; Godfather II not quite as good but still fine; and Godfather III was a dud

Godfather II was as good, if not better than Godfather I. Godfather III sucked. And, honestly, I can't even compare Godfather I and II, because they are both masterpieces in their own right. I stumbled across the Godfather Saga about 15 years ago, which has both movies in chronological order, and added extra footage. That was the best.

But, good post, and I get it. Just don't diss Godfather II.

mynhair's picture

Thank you all for being morons.  Closed the short, and doubled the long.  Byte me.

Alpha Monkey's picture

I closed my short months ago and bought gold.  No way I'm taking worthless fiat, no matter how high the stock market rallies.  Oh, and I'm up, even with ever increasingly expensive purchases.

lolmaster's picture

I and II should not be considered as separate movies ... But if one has to choose clearly II is superior...

electronpaul's picture

"Pushing on a string,

Pushing on a string,

no matter how hard you try,

it doesn't do a thing..."

Hit song from 2012-14 depression era.

Subprime JD's picture

Correlation does not equate to causation. Let's Not forget That qe1 began at the same time when the market was at 14 year lows.

Alpha Monkey's picture

That's what I was thinking too.  If they let the market really drop this time, before re-juicing it, there will probably be a repeat of the 1st round improvements.

mfoste1's picture

this shit aint rocket science no matter how much they make it out to be....... introduction of additional liquidity in a weak market has diminishing effects. Why? cause all the fucking liquidity goes to the banks and they fucking spend it on bonuses and coke/hookers. You want to see a more real effect of throwing a trillion dollars into the "economy"?  better off giving everyone in america a debit card loaded with 10k on it and continue the ponzi scheme. At least give the people some of the money back that has been fucking stolen from them over the past 100yrs due to inflation bs.

 

damn this buillshit is really getting to me

Alpha Monkey's picture

damn this buillshit is really getting to me

Take a deep breath... Exhale slowly. Now, go buy physical gold and tell everyone you know to buy gold to help bring the financial system down that much faster!  DO NOT BUY PAPER GOLD as this just contributes more profits and system--management-resources (manipulation $$) to the same people we claim to want to be rid of.

If you already have gold, and have already told everyone, smoke a J.

Long-John-Silver's picture

This shit it turning into Rocky Movies to infinity.

Complete List Of Rocky Movies
reader2010's picture

If they really wanted to kick start the economy, they would have already done simple things, such as giving each family a new electric or hybid car for free,  for example. Sadly the Fed and the Treasury are only interested in making money for their true Masters at the expense of We the Sheeple.