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Everyone Hates The Euro - EUR Shorts Hit New Record High
Presented with little but incredulous comment as the net short-interest speculative commitment of traders in EUR futures breaks to yet another record (at over 155k contracts) with no squeeze in sight yet...
whether it is the larger unlevered real-money exiting or simply that the catalyst for a squeeze hasn't arrived yet (QE3?), EURUSD is holding at August 2010 lows for now...next stop 1.2588?
Chart: Bloomberg
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Long Euro! Short gold....bizarro-world logic!
I was very close to going short over the weekend, but didnt get large enough brass to do so....
Bernake is in my head whispering sweet nothing
GET OUT GET OUT!?!?!?!?!
OK - all you daytraders make your nickels on minute momentums - enjoy.
LONG TERM TIP: EUR goes up.
Anyone who thinks EU and EUR is dissolving, spends too much time reading The Tylers.
EU will never dissolve. Odds are US will - because US'ians genuinely hate each other and US Elite has sold out its own subjects, its "working/middle class"
The Tylers daily bash EU for "socialism" - and never criticize US Elite, US corporate fascist empire.
Get a clue folks. The Tylers are Tools for US Empire. Their wet dream is to get rid of the Bernank and all US social entitlements - except, presumably since they never mention it, entitlements for the US war and death machine - as if only only the FED and the disenfranchised are the problem in the US...
You have to be an idiot to not see and admit that the ONLY problem in the US - is US Empire - and that IT - and neither EU nor US social "entitlements" - are to blame for globalization/financialization - the destroyer of the entire world - never mind that US military gobbles up one third of US revenue... -
The Tylers are boring, "old and fat and bald" - there - that's how they describe EU politicians and bureacrats - it's very grown up of the Tylers - I know they love having their infantile rhetotric reflected back to themselves
Cheers Tylers - To Your Transparency!
Newsflash: Depression has hit major bank psyops departments! According to rumors, they have laid off so many employees, that in some cases just one regular agent remains dedicated to trolling a website, compensating for it by creating a dozen accounts. Unfortunatelly, many local communities didn't buy it.
Come on folks - don't be a cheapskate - you CAN afford more than just williamthebastard being the whore for every pseudo-personality, right? Sure, he's good for spamming noise.... but see, as much as he likes to roleplay.... he just isn't that good at playing ANY role, because he is so shallow and obvious at roleplaying. So, he really isn't that fit for..... you know psyops, rather than just "obvious distraction".
Agree eureka: For all USD fans: What do you think happens to the Euro if Greece, Italy, Spain are out of the Euro once? The Euro goes up of course. I´m long USD for now, but there will be a time I change them back.
The dollar is infinitely more likely to still hold value 100yrs from now vs the Euro,
but thanks for playing.
The socio economic differences make it a near impossibility for those not totally deluded.
The fractures beyond the obvious with such mundane things like gambling where some countries it is a free for all and others only the state can offer it are the tip of the iceberg.
Since the creation of the Euro world commerce conducted in dollars has dropped a whole whopping 5% at that rate 200years from now a new standard bearer will emerge.
Meanwhile, the day the Euros bail out the US is the day the world stops spinning:
UBS, Switzerland’s largest bank, was the biggest borrower from the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, tapping the program 11 times for $74.5 billion.
Six European banks were among the top 11 companies that saccumulated the most debt overall -- a combined $274.1 billion .
Dexia tapped the US government for $53.5 billion. Other European users included Barclays Plc in London at $38.8 billion; Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc at $38.5 billion; and Paris-based Natixis at $27 billion.
The Fed listed borrowing for Paris-based BNP Paribas at $41.8 billion.
Commerzbank of Germany borrowed $350 million at the Fed’s discount window.
Bad call, methinks... The downgrades reflect in theory a willingness to restructure instead of printing... But again, I am terrible at short term...
Just You Tyler! The rest seems to prefer to earn some money from it.
I heart my Euro shorts
anyone who has euro shorts on here has their balls on the chopping block
If the euro goes down further, so goes silver with it... (in the short term)
But they are about to print 2 trillion more......that should be good for something....
I wouldnt bet on it.
I bet on it. Mayb not now, but maybe in April 2012 or something when the operation twist is finished
this is just a momentum and sentiment trade. If numbers mattered the USD would have been fucked out to lunch 5 years ago.
good luck trading on fundamentals
damn! I always thought we would be safer off here in the EU, since you guys have a monkeyfaced subhuman as commander in chief. Apparently our inbread-homosexual-fucking-perverted-satanist leaders are even worse.
/sarc for the autistic fuggs whom don't understand basic schwartzzzz humor.
Hey! HOW DARE YOU to call our European Leaders satanists!
Some of them are CoE... Oh, wait...
Time to buy for a quick gain on the squeeze.
It'll probably start on Monday.
Damn, that's a beauty of a graph.
every squeeze is met by more short selling at higher levels by non-believers like us..and if we are skeptical about the PSI, why not short it to an initial target of 1.15-1.2? so without qe3 that will be hard to justify at current oil prices, there is nothing in sight for a major squeeze..?
THIS LOOKS LIKE THE ROADMAP OF THE TOUR DU FRANCE!
S&P downgrades France's credit rating, French finance minister says (CNN)
Who watches CNN?
meanwhile SPY ripping to a new HOD after the bell and the /ES nearing positive territory.
WTF???????????????????
I guess mass downgrades of European nations as the euro crumbles are somehow supposed to be bullish?
Its just the preparation for QE, same like we saw in summer of 2010.
The Fed cannot QE and won't. Too bad most traders are fooled. The market levitates on hope, hype, and the greatest con game. Now if only I could figure out how to profit off no QE but folks thinking it is coming...forever.
I hear ya.
I seriously doubt this is retail traders going balls deep long the /ES after the downgrades today.
This is some insane shit. /ES still climbing and just closed at fresh intraday highs...
unbefuckinlievable....
closed at 1289.50...down a mere 2.25 for the day. fuck me...
LOL
Retail HFT bots.
They are selling them at Wal-Mart for $149.95, special today only.
Yes; it is rather droll.
I hear ya, bro. I hear ya. I haven't bet the farm on a crash, but I did place some small bets today. I just hate making a bet that looks so fucking good and turns out to be wrong.
'Ripping to a new high' where it was back in 2001.
yeah but for the day? come on...this should have been a -15 day on the /ES MINIMUM. instead we get a -2.25? and with the market closed on Monday? No...something here just doesn't add up. This makes no sense at all.
Well thats what ya get when FED central banksters completely take over the markets. Makes no sense because there is no sense....hell todays entire market activity was probably all centered around $1 bet between Bernank and Geithner,
They were betting on orange juice contracts?
SheepDog, you and those who still base their decisions on "will there be QE3"....
...you're an idiot!
Why? Because you folks on the one hand think, that you no longer believe in a proper market..... yet on the other hand still believe in its premises.... because if you wouldn't, the question of QE3 wouldn't even matter to you.
Here's why:
What do people mean, when they say QE? Well, in short, lots of money printing, that makes the stockmarket go up, devalue fiat, and enrich banks.
Question: Is there any question about those things? Do you mean, there will not be lots of money printed, stocks will not get artificially (kept) inflated, and bankers will not be made rich..... and nations like the USA and co. will actually balance their budgets, instead of relying on CBs basically printing bonds..... in the midterm?
Are you kidding me? ARE YOU KIDDING ME? Do you folks honestly ask yourself that? WTH?
So, does that mean that there will be an OFFICIAL QE3, and that "teh markets" will respond to them as you expect?
NO.
You see, as long as you can print whatever you want, you can make anything go up (espcially if everyone else has already left the market), even if no one - not even the dumbest sheeple - take it seriously. Want to make a fiat currency go up? HEY, at this point, how are we far away from going full retard, by printing fiat with the left hand, then buying that fiat up with the right hand, and throw in some HFT magicks for good measure.... et voila, in fiatopia gone wild, fiat goes up, if more fiat is printed.... yeah right.... totally fucking ridiculous, and a recipe disaster.... but they could do in in the short-term, right?
Sooo.... the question if there will be another "official QE", does not neccessarily have anything to do, with if there will be lots of printing, and what virtual-reality effect it will have.
HFT programmers need ot recalc the parameters on this one, so itll take the weekend for people to work out.
The market just got its head around LTRO = Euro QE and now think that was the fix,
and the downgrade of sov debt doesnt change ECB collateral ratings so QE parameters are still intact there.
BUT they havent factored in the RWA changes to banks, insurers, and the coming ratings changes there and...... the EFSF.
A quick out of the air number:
+ 50 to 100bn core 1 EU capitalisation for eurobanks (now that was what LTRO was for and those banks not borrowing were not the same as the ones depositing)
Interesting other news: but related: EBA "delays stress tests" ..... (waiting for LTRO 2?....)
+ 300bn Germany/France/Finland/Netherlands/Austria/Italy money for EFSF "leveraged" to 1trn is now....
+ 250 bn pledged to "leverage" 1.1-1.2 trn. which will make it unlikely to get the AAA rating it needs so more must be done at the EU level. I'm trying to be conservative in my estimates
Merkel pledged more cash, and will give it, but with more terms attached. That Jan 30 meeting not looking like EU plain sailing to fiscal compact anymore.
so we have a funding gap of +250bn which is going to get covered with ... LTRO 2?
This excludes any additional funding for Greece in the new bailout scenario + additional funding for Spain with the newly exposed "bigger deficit than we thought".
All these have some impact on US bank exposure to Europe as well.
In summary: right now market is underestimating the impact of the downgrade, once they do the maths on the linkages, it should be sharp risk off, until the anticipation sets in that europe will pull another rabbit out of the hat on Jan 30th.
The entire global system is broken. I want no part of it.
Yet people still think they can 'trade' against a few central bankers who have taken total control of all markets.
They are all walking their currencies down in a coordinated fashion. The key is to find the inflection points where you can bet against the over bullishness or over bearishness.
Still, is it anything but a 50/50 guess? Hell there was a whole flock of ZH guys now gone who were super bulls back at DOW 12,700 all in because QE3 was coming next week, 7 months ago. Couldnt tell em any different, oh well where are they today.
I don't know about them, but personally, I don't know whether to shit or go blind.
Euro was inaugurated with the valuation idea of parity with the Dollar.
Bush et al printed money and we ended up with 1.45 against the EUR and the Chinese adamant to devalue their currency. Inflection point in the near term boys and girls.
Now we are heading back to parity. US will suffer not Europe. If one print money (or buy stuff which one can not aford) one will lose influnce and wealth.
Parity? LOL and what do you think happens with trade?
There IS still a real economy out there, you know?
Is it time to panic yet?
no ... enjoy your long weekend. watch the games on sunday ... i'm sure they'll 'fix' europe again at the last minute.
Or, they could know that lots of people are likely to think that and set up long here and buy a bunch of Euro's for the 'guaranteed squeeze', and the Euro falls to 1.10 Monday.
Perfect double top of French tits.
let 'em burn
http://www.calibratedconfidence.com/2012/01/is-fire-out.html
William F. Buckley from 1970 talking Dollars:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IuSfYagYdiY
I'm opening The Church of QE....all will be saved who simply BELIEVE!
Just cant seem to be able to resist including (QE3?) in every article. I love ZH and all, but fuck what a bunch of QE whores.
I BELIEVE...it's time for a bunch of fuckin cocktails.
Days like today make me wish I could still drink. Guess I'll strike a match instead.
And when you shall hear of bailouts and rumors of bailouts, be not troubled: for such things must needs be; but the end shall not be yet.
Respect SD: you are the pack leader of the " nothing coming / they got nothing" brigade.
But the CB's are all printing now, they are pumping liquidity and hoovering poisoned paper at par. The price action speaks for itself, equity market pricing is no more than one of many policy objectives.
I care not what they do, it's pointless trying to value one piece of paper verses another. They all have counterparty risk and to my mind the trade of the decade, perhaps the last trade, is to get rid of counterparty risk.
I love the Euro...people work their fingers to the bone for them and they are worthless. Slave labor for free. Bahahaha!
Did anyone else notice how they ramped the close? ES only closed down 2 points on the day. Totally unbelievable. Euro strength drove the US equity markets higher in 2011 while the Euro continues to decouple in '12.
this aint their first time to the rodeo ...
I dont know wswarrior, seems rather commonplace to me. Whats so unusual about all bad news being deleted and last half hour market pump? Hell it went on all last year.
what has love and hate got to do with it? Love the USD? love the £? Love the Euro?
Behind the symbol a dark realilty for all three of them. Don't love Mammon, love man.
...or woman. But tolerate and respect all...
Mammon is not money per se, it's what people are willing to do for it...
the green back has been the symbol of Mammon's creed; greed is good! And the euro is junior carbon copy of USD, which was carbon copy of £, etc. etc. etc. Greed is what this is all about, and these notationals are the crazy score keepers of the global "greed is good" pecking order; on the Titanic. Depending on the pecking order, you get to dance with the sexy, iconic lady of the Titanic, on the great ship of fiat delusion. Mammon, however, is not lord of the Iceberg...that's the killer for the green back lover! Chaud devant!!
I see you took the S&P downgrade of FrAA+nce personally? But the worse is yet to come. Remember,after the Titanic, there came more ships:)
you get me wrong, as long as I have been on ZH I have always said : This is a crisis of western capitalism construct in its present form; aka Pax americana and exacerbated bubble financialised pyrotechnics since Reaganomics + NWO days.
France is not a nation with a good economic model; the french have built a super centralised state since over a 1000 years and it has all the hallmarks of statism and corporate Colbertism gone viral. So the Enlightenment which provided the blue print for a new society never got used correctly; as the Napoleon to present day French thread has proven, and that, inspite of a Revolution that started off so promisingly.
Nothing personal, its history! But now first world is in paradigm change crisis. Big time.
C'est quoi ce fucking Mammon?
@ 1.10 the Chinese will start buying EU debt... cheap...
1 trilion with discount...
PP
Yes, but what does Madame Hildebrand think?
She has to ask her good looking man what to think.
So that was all that talk in cnbc about QE3. They were just trying to shake some of the shorts out. I guess that is not working so well anymore. I wonder what they will do when they stop crying wolf.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45977098
"I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue"
Trying to trade FX can certainly make you feel like that; I'm really doing a good job of keeping out of the whole mess; at least for the time being.
i bought some, when we hit a new weekly low, we always bounce u;p to close to the old weekly high. plus there was the gap to trade today. algo's.
The more the Euro goes down the more likely Bernanke will have to start printing to bail them out. Won't be long.
"the incredible shrinking euro"
while every other currency [$$$] appreciates says, "good-will-fortune-cookie-hunt" via "mother greenback"?
america's exploding tourism bakery, just got a shot of yeast --- a rising surprise for u.s. commerce and what's ailing ya
http://www.commerce.gov/NewsRoom/PressReleases_FactSheets/PROD01_005355
FWIW Dept: 2007 u.s. travel & tourism industry set record of $122.7bn --- note... $1.7tn u.s. industry
Squeezing shorts is a lot like squeezing oranges; there has to be some one with a strong hand and a plan to pick up the orange and squeeze it. It's possible for even a great overburden of shorts to be right; so that, in six weeks for instance, you come back and look at the chart and say, well the shorts have the money made; that's when you better get out of the way. I don't plan on having any position; FX is too weird.
There is an inevitable principle of boomerang momentum in the market that even the manipulation cannot dampen as its inherent in the law of motion; the champagne cork rule. In an economy with teeth whose lending rate has been manipulated such that the value of its currency falls to USD parity as a result of overexuberant speculation going for the kill, watch out!! The return to competitivity of Italian and French markets will make themselves felt. Reality will bite hard into fictitious market manipulation. Let the Euro fall and the boomerang effect will surge. The roller coaster is not over. And the US HFs are not home and dry as they drive the Titanic further into the fog.
Its time for these economies to walk away from a dead dodo and fly their individual flags. Will it happen in 2012? As its election year, the pain will probably continue. That's the law of least resistance short term and more pain longer term.
The Euro has been a farce from Day One: The Euro was conceived by the US oligarchy (think GE) as a wonderful place to put their "appreciating" offshore income while they busily devalued the US dollar to "compete". Now they suddenly want all that offshore income back.... tax free. Rots of ruck fellas.....
oh noes! Im long ...
the eur correlatrion with stocks is no longer visible...its the aud\usd now until interests rise...
The Bernank is managing the USD via his transmission channel, i.e. ComedyNBC.
To use a Rush line; "Don't doubt me on this!"
its a zero sum game for every short thier has to be a long on the other side of the trade
I trade both sides of this, and the biggest problem has been the inited states. we ramp up allowing europe to drop it with a huge gap. so it's hard to put a stop aon the long and make money. If you trade on a weekly, you can buy at a new weekly low, but then sell as you get to the new weekly lower high. it rather easy. I sold a good portion of shorts friday, bought some small long, will once again sell that as we get to the lower high. I keep a buy stop in place on the long side if we make a new weekly high, but keep a stop loss on place. muvch of this depends on good charting adn where the euro opens etc. there was. on 1/3/12 we had the fake break out, but it did work along the speed lines as expected. there is always a false break out before a real one, and then I see larger drop. i am dipping into a long position in small amounts. it could drop off a cliff as well, descending triangle pattern (descending flag). I don't know)
this chart is very bullish for eur..
this chart is very bullish for eur..