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The Evil S&P Empire Strikes Back: Says Broad Muni Downgrade Will Come After Final US Budget

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The ridiculous war between Obama and S&P, which escalated last night following disclosure by the NYT that S&P was being investigated for its muni ratings, has just taken another turn for ths surreal after S&P announced that it would most likely downgrade munis as soon as the final US budget is finalized. Granted that could very well mean never. To quote S&P: "In our opinion, the longer-term deficit reduction  framework adopted as part of the Budget Control Act of 2011 (BCA) could undermine the already fragile economic recovery and complicate aspects of state and local government fiscal management. Either of these outcomes could potentially weaken our view of certain individual credit profiles of obligors across the sector." The sector being the US munis. And from Bloomberg: "The company, which said earlier this month that states and local governments could remain AAA even after the U.S. cut, said in a report today downgrades could come after reductions in federal funding or changed policy. Ratings changes would come based on “differing levels of reliance on federal funding, and varying management capabilities,” and, after the Budget Control Act of 2011, will be felt “unevenly across the sector,” S&P said. "Experience tells me I would expect there to be some downgrades,” said S&P credit analyst Gabriel Petek in a telephone interview. “These cuts are coming in addition to the losses of revenue that already came during the recession."" Bottom line: the longer this downgrade over up to 7000 issues is deferred, and it is very much overdue right now, the bigger it will be when it finally arrives, and the greater the gloating by Meredith Whitney will be when it finally arrives.

Full report:

State And Local Governments Face Fiscal Challenges Under Federal Debt Deal

Following the Aug. 5, 2011 downgrade of the U.S. sovereign debt rating to 'AA+/Negative', Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said the action would not trigger automatic rating downgrades beyond those that moved in lockstep with the sovereign rating. We reiterated that, pursuant to our criteria, certain state and local government ratings could remain or be assigned at the 'AAA' level (see "State And Local Government Ratings Are Not Directly Constrained By That Of The U.S. Sovereign," published Aug. 8 on RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal). This does not mean there are no credit implications from recent events, however.

The situation, as it is evolving, is similar to "Hypothetical Scenario 2", which we contemplated in "Where U.S. Public Finance Ratings Could Head In the Wake Of The Federal Fiscal Crisis," published July 21. In it we described a scenario in which a federal debt ceiling agreement was reached, avoiding U.S. Treasury defaults but resulting in a U.S. sovereign debt rating downgrade. From the perspective of state and local governments, the credit implications of recent events stem more from potential reductions in federal funding than from the U.S. downgrade itself.

In our opinion, the longer-term deficit reduction framework adopted as part of the Budget Control Act of 2011 (BCA) could undermine the already fragile economic recovery and complicate aspects of state and local government fiscal management. Either of these outcomes could potentially weaken our view of certain individual credit profiles of obligors across the sector. But given the disparate nature of state and local economies, differing levels of reliance on federal funding, and varying management capabilities throughout the U.S., we anticipate the effects on credit quality from the BCA will likely be felt unevenly across the sector.

Initial analysis of the terms of the BCA suggests to us that material reductions in federal funding to state and local governments are unlikely to occur before 2013. According to the BCA, details of potential proposed federal cuts are to be made public by Nov. 23, 2011 with a Congressional vote on the joint special committee's (established under the BCA) proposals by no later than Dec. 23, 2011 (and a final deadline for passage of the legislation by Jan. 15, 2012). Therefore, even if significant cuts were to take effect starting in fiscal 2013, this timeline provides state and local governments advance notice, thereby lessening liquidity risk in our view. Furthermore, should any federal funding reductions represent a budget risk to state and local governments, the cuts and potential cuts scheduled in the BCA provide them with time to implement budget adjustments that, in our view, could prove important in the maintenance of their credit quality.

It is possible the federal government will decrease funding for some programs without commensurate changes in service delivery mandates. Delivering on under- or unfunded mandates could be a source of budget strain. In addition, although we recognize that state and local governments enjoy considerable operating autonomy, we believe that outright withdrawal from participation in any number of federal programs could be politically and administratively difficult. To the extent state and local governments opt to absorb and locally fund services that currently receive federal support, we expect the fiscal effects to vary. In part, this reflects the range of revenue raising flexibility (legal and political) we see among the state and local governments.

Federal Deficit Reduction Framework

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the BCA is projected to reduce the federal deficit in two phases by a total of $2.1 trillion to $2.4 trillion through 2021. In the first phase, deficit reduction of $917 billion would be achieved primarily through caps on discretionary federal spending. In a second phase, which would overlap the first phase, the BCA also establishes the goal of $1.5 trillion in additional deficit reduction over the 10-year horizon (2012-2021). In phase two, specific cuts are to be agreed upon by a 12-member joint special committee of members of Congress and then voted on by Congress and sent to the President. If by Jan. 15, 2012, the joint special committee process does not result in enacted legislation projected to achieve at least $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction by 2021, automatic cuts of this amount would be triggered. The automatic cuts of $1.2 trillion would be across-the-board (except certain specifically exempted programs) and split between security and non-security related spending. Importantly for state governments, Medicaid and the children's health insurance program (CHIP) are among the programs that would be exempted should the across-the-board cuts be triggered. From the standpoint of state and local governments' fiscal positions, the structure of the automatic trigger cuts have potential to be more favorable than cuts that could derive from the joint special committee recommendations. It is possible the joint special committee could recommend approaches to deficit reduction that more directly—and negatively--affect state and local government budgets than would the trigger cuts.

Analytic Implications Of Budget Control Act To States

Cash flow

Following the recent increase to the federal debt limit, we expect federal cash disbursements to flow to payees as scheduled, including those to state and local governments. Thus, we do not anticipate cash flow disruptions for states with regard to their receipt of federal aid. As we understand it, though, states had been actively developing contingency plans in the event an agreement had not been reached and the federal government began prioritizing its disbursements. It was unclear where important state aid, such as that for Medicaid, would have ranked among federal priorities. According to our initial survey, most states had cash flow capacity to continue to fund operations as budgeted for periods ranging from several weeks to months. In our ongoing review of states' creditworthiness, we will consider cash management in advance of any federal spending reductions that we believe could strain states' liquidity.

Tax reform and market liquidity

We do not anticipate material disruption to the market for most municipal bonds as a result of the BCA. However, should the federal tax code be reformed it is possible that the municipal bond market could be affected. Current law includes expiration of the Bush-era reduced marginal tax rates. If the tax cuts (passed in 2001 and 2003) were allowed to expire, marginal federal income tax rates would increase on Jan. 1, 2013. Under such a scenario, the tax exemption on interest income from investments in tax-exempt municipal bonds could increase in value to investors subject to federal income taxes. This could exert downward pressure on interest rates faced by municipal issuers.

Instead of allowing marginal tax rates to increase, some members of Congress have signaled support for reducing tax exemptions and deductions that currently exist in the tax code. One such reform would reduce or eliminate the tax-exempt status of interest earnings on municipal bonds, which in our view would likely increase the interest costs to municipal issuers.

Other potential tax reform proposals that some members of Congress and other public officials have mentioned include eliminating the mortgage interest tax deduction. We believe such a reform could have far-reaching effects on the real estate market, which is already suffering from an overhang of supply built up during the housing boom of the mid 2000s. Elimination of the tax deductibility of mortgage interest would effectively make housing less affordable. Under this scenario, we would anticipate negative effects on home prices—which would translate to lower assessed values, albeit with a lag due to the assessment process. Ultimately, this chain of events could have a negative effect on property and real estate related tax revenues.

Changes to the tax law intended to generate higher federal revenues would, in our view, presumably need to be addressed as part of the joint special committee process or by Congress as distinct tax reform legislation since the automatic deficit reduction provisions of the BCA do not include increased tax revenues (and involve only spending adjustments and interest savings).

Budgetary: Deficit reduction in two phases

Phase one: caps on discretionary spending.  The budgetary implications to the states of the BCA rest to a considerable extent on the outcome of the deficit reduction process undertaken by the joint special committee. The immediate spending caps associated with phase one reduce discretionary outlays by $756 billion and, when coupled with interest savings on debt, are projected to result in $917 billion of deficit reduction over 10 years. But much of the reduced spending for this phase is back-loaded. Of the total discretionary spending subject to the cap, there is $25 billion and $46 billion in reduced spending in fiscal 2012 and 2013, respectively--less than 10% of the total planned reduced spending. These reductions, moreover, are relative to current-law baseline projections, which are scheduled to increase over time. Relative to the prior year, the only outright spending decline ($7 billion) occurs in fiscal 2012—with $2 billion of reductions to non-security spending and $5 billion to security-related spending programs. Hypothetically, even if all of the cuts were imposed on states, the reduction would equal 1.5% of federal funds (and just 0.6% of total revenue) to state governments (at 2009 funding levels). In any event, we expect that state budgets will bear much less than the entire burden of the reduced spending. In fiscal years 2012 and 2013, for example, the BCA specifies the split between reduced security and non-security discretionary spending, but is silent for the years from 2014 to 2021.

Although the loss of any amount of federal funds may impede states' efforts to maintain fiscal balance, particularly in light of the slow economic recovery, states have experienced much larger revenue losses than this in recent years. Total state tax revenues declined 8.6% in 2009 compared to 2008 as a result of the recession. The revenue declines were partially offset by increased federal funding which, especially in the case of certain public welfare programs, functions as an automatic stabilizer to the economy. In addition, during the second quarter of 2009, increased federal funds provided under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) began to be disbursed to the states. However, although the increased federal funding ($55 billion in 2009) helped, it did not completely make up for the lost state tax revenues ($67 billion). Nonetheless, even as the revenue declines among the states contributed to budget crises for some of them, we differentiated this from outright debt crises among states, even in cases where fiscal strain factored into credit rating downgrades. This was due to the states' taking corrective budget actions—in many instances, in mid-fiscal year.

Phase two: alternative scenarios.  Phase two of the BCA envisions deficit reduction ranging from $1.2 trillion to $1.5 trillion through 2021 achieved via one of two contemplated scenarios. For the states, much depends on the efficacy of the joint special committee, whose goal, pursuant to the BCA, is $1.5 trillion in deficit reduction. Under the BCA, the joint special committee will recommend a deficit reduction plan by Nov. 23, 2011 with a Congressional vote by Dec. 23, 2011. If this process does not materialize in the enactment of deficit reduction legislation, across-the-board cuts, or funding "sequestration," would be triggered automatically. Because the trigger cuts exempt certain programs important to states, this scenario could be more favorable to state and local government finances than potential cuts that could emerge under the joint special committee process.

Phase two: no deficit reduction legislation (automatic trigger cuts).  If the joint special committee process does not result in enacted deficit reduction legislation, the automatic trigger cuts would total $1.2 trillion over 10 years. Compared to the $756 billion in reduced discretionary spending of phase one, these spending reductions are, according to the BCA, more evenly dispersed across the horizon. However, the BCA exempts specific programs, including Medicaid and CHIP, thereby shielding prominent parts of state budgets.

Nonetheless, given the interdependence between the states and the federal government, with federal sources of revenue comprising about 32% of total state revenues (2009 data, U.S. Census Bureau), we expect reduced funds for states to be an unavoidable outcome at least to some degree should the automatic cuts be triggered. In a scenario where the across-the-board cuts were triggered, state grants and pass-through funds could experience large reductions. However, states would know by Jan. 15, 2012 whether the sequestration cuts are triggered, nearly one year before they would be implemented in January 2013. This timeline provides some opportunity for states to accommodate the cuts from a budget management perspective. By and large, this reduced federal funding would not affect states' discretionary revenue. Therefore, if across-the-board cuts were triggered, we believe that the reduced aid to states might not have a commensurately negative effect on states' fiscal positions. In short, we expect that reduced federal funding could be met by states with programmatic cuts in many areas that have been heretofore funded with federal dollars. As we noted earlier, to the extent states decide to continue funding such programs on their own, fiscal tradeoffs will be involved. We understand that some mandates, such as for certain education-related programs, would likely remain in place and represent an increased fiscal responsibility for states. Whether and how states manage any potential federal cuts could play a role in our review of budget management as a part of the larger rating process.

Phase two: deficit reduction legislation.  If the joint special committee process achieves enactment of deficit reduction legislation, in our view state finances could be more vulnerable to potential changes in the federal-state funding relationship. Entitlement programs represent some of the biggest drivers of the federal government's long-term projected fiscal deficit. With wide latitude regarding how to shape deficit reduction, the joint special committee can recommend changes in entitlement programs, with Medicaid representing the most significant from the states' perspective. The federal and state governments jointly finance Medicaid but each state manages it individually. According to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, total governmental spending on Medicaid was $374 billion in 2009 (2.7% of GDP), of which the federal government funded $247 billion. (Federal funding for public welfare programs, including Medicaid, increased 16.3% in 2009 as a result of the ARRA. In 2008, total Medicaid spending was $343.1 billion with federal funds comprising $202.4 billion of this). If federal funding for Medicaid were converted to block grants or there were changes to the federal medical assistance percentage (the formula upon which federal matching is determined) that lowered federal reimbursements, as long as states continue to participate in the program they could incur greater funding responsibility unless they were also granted increased flexibility regarding service requirements.

Changed budget environment under any scenario

Following adoption of the BCA, we believe that, under any scenario, states can likely expect reduced federal funding, amounting to an impediment to their ability to maintain fiscal balance over the ensuing 10 years. But we note that, in our view, state and local governments have a strong track record of active budget management when it comes to responding to a constrained revenue environment. For example, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of June 2011, state and local governments had shed 499,000 jobs since June 2008. In the aggregate, payroll reductions are a part of overall spending cuts by state and local governments. Data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicate that total state and local consumption expenditures and gross investment declined 3.3% in the first quarter of 2011 after dropping by 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2010.

These spending cuts and job reductions provide fiscal drag which could negatively impact the nation's economic recovery, but paradoxically they help preserve the credit quality of individual obligors. The workforce reductions represent the difficult choices we have observed and referenced in prior comments, and they are an integral part of most governments' budget-balancing strategies. Pursuant to our rating criteria, in evaluating credit quality, we will continue to consider how effectively state and local governments navigate a new era of reduced federal funding.

Economic.  Federal government spending is important to both the national and state-level economies. Based on 2009 figures, federal spending (including payments to individuals and governments) comprised 25% of state gross domestic product on average, ranging from as little as 13% to as much as 38%, depending upon the state (see table 1). Federal economic stimulus spending associated with the ARRA provided countercyclical support to states during the depths of the recent recession. Whereas total state tax revenues shrank 8.6%, federal grants to states increased 13% from 2008 to 2009. The federal spending cuts contemplated in the BCA are in addition to the phase-out of federal stimulus funding and could have a contractionary effect on the national and state economies. The discretionary spending caps result in relatively modest cuts in the initial years compared to the national GDP. But, according to IHS GlobalInsight, this fiscal contraction could reduce GDP growth by 0.2%. On top of an already fragile recovery, these federal cuts could therefore contribute to even slower economic growth. Two full years after the official end of the 2007 recession, consumer sentiment, after recovering somewhat earlier in 2011, has receded and fell sharply in July to its lowest level since May 1980, according to IHS GlobalInsight. And, 19 states still have unemployment rates above 9.1%. Conversely, this also means 31 states have unemployment rates below the nation's and serves as an example of the disparate state and local economies that comprise the United States. We will therefore continue to evaluate each state and local obligor in its own economic context.

Potential Analytic Implications Of Debt Ceiling Agreement To Local Governments

Cash flow and budgets

Historically, local governments have tended to rely on a combination of locally derived revenues (property or sales taxes) and state aid or state shared revenues. For cash flow planning purposes, fiscal 2012 began favorably for local governments since all but one state had an enacted budget by the start of the fiscal year. Local governments relied on federal funding for less than 4% of total revenues in 2008. And, while local governments receive higher amounts of federal aid indirectly (via their state governments), as mentioned above, we expect federal funds to be disbursed in a timely manner and as scheduled. Future spending cuts associated with the BCA may present budgetary complications, but we do not anticipate unforeseen cash flow disruptions for local governments as a result of the agreement.

Economy

We expect any negative economic impact from reduced federal spending to affect local governments by constraining further an already slow recovery, similar to the effect we expect on state economies. Special projects funded by earmarks or discretionary federal appropriations could be jeopardized. We believe that our ratings of obligors with economic exposure to federal military base realignment and closure offer an analytic paradigm. In practice, many communities have successfully redeveloped previous military bases resulting in less economic damage than initial estimates.

Economic And Fiscal Horizon Underscore Importance Of Financial Management

We see a complicated credit landscape on the horizon for state and local governments now that they have weathered several years of difficult economics. The federal debt ceiling increase averted the potential for acute liquidity shortfalls that could have arisen if the federal government had shut off significant amounts of disbursements to state and local governments. However, while enactment of the BCA may have mitigated near-term liquidity risk (associated with federal funds), we believe that medium-term budgetary and economic risks for state and local governments persist. With an already tepid economic recovery, the additional reduction of federal funds could fuel retrenchment among consumers.

This being said, we expect many state and local governments to be better-poised to manage federal cuts to their grant funding than the recessionary-based revenue declines of 2008 and 2009. Compared to the revenue losses from the Great Recession, the initial federal cuts appear to be smaller in magnitude. And, further potential cuts that Congress and the President may approve will be preceded by advance notice based on the timeline laid out in the BCA. But considering that many governments' finances are still in the early stages of fiscal repair from the recession, the BCA offers little respite from further emphasis on budget austerity. In our view, the additional budget strain from the potential federal cuts underscore the importance of the financial management components of our criteria.

Table 1  |  Download Table

Total Federal Spending As % Of State GDP
Fiscal Year 2009; Includes Stimulus Funds
State Rating Outlook Federal spending (mils. $) Nominal state GDP (mils. $) % state GDP

Alabama

AA Stable 54,674 166,819 32.8

Alaska

AA+ Stable 14,215 45,861 31.0

Arizona

AA- Negative 63,029 249,711 25.2

Arkansas

AA Stable 27,302 98,795 27.6

California

A- Stable 345,970 1,847,048 18.7

Colorado

AA Stable 47,806 250,664 19.1

Connecticut

AA Stable 42,589 227,550 18.7

Delaware

AAA Stable 8,137 60,660 13.4

Florida

AAA Stable 175,684 732,782 24.0

Georgia

AAA Stable 83,917 394,117 21.3

Hawaii

AA Stable 24,610 65,428 37.6

Idaho

AA+ Stable 14,898 53,661 27.8

Illinois

A+ Negative 116,070 631,970 18.4

Indiana

AAA Stable 61,149 259,894 23.5

Iowa

AAA Stable 29,369 136,062 21.6

Kansas

AA+ Stable 34,705 122,544 28.3

Kentucky

AA- Stable 50,012 155,789 32.1

Louisiana

AA Stable 48,357 205,117 23.6

Maine

AA Negative 14,242 50,039 28.5

Maryland

AAA Stable 92,155 285,116 32.3

Massachusetts

AA Positive 83,890 360,538 23.3

Michigan

AA- Stable 92,003 369,671 24.9

Minnesota

AAA Stable 45,691 258,499 17.7

Mississippi

AA Stable 32,848 94,406 34.8

Missouri

AAA Stable 67,942 237,955 28.6

Montana

AA Stable 10,925 34,999 31.2

Nebraska

AAA Stable 16,526 86,411 19.1

Nevada

AA Stable 18,894 125,037 15.1

New Hampshire

AA Stable 11,844 59,086 20.0

New Jersey

AA- Stable 80,647 471,946 17.1

New Mexico

AA+ Stable 27,472 76,871 35.7

New York

AA Stable 194,975 1,094,104 17.8

North Carolina

AAA Stable 84,830 407,032 20.8

North Dakota

AA+ Positive 8,618 31,626 27.2

Ohio

AA+ Stable 107,975 462,015 23.4

Oklahoma

AA+ Stable 37,516 142,388 26.3

Oregon

AA+ Stable 33,594 167,481 20.1

Pennsylvania

AA Stable 135,687 546,538 24.8

Rhode Island

AA Stable 11,517 47,470 24.3

South Carolina

AA+ Stable 46,904 158,786 29.5

South Dakota

AA+ Stable 9,499 38,255 24.8

Tennessee

AA+ Positive 68,546 243,849 28.1

Texas

AA+ Stable 227,108 1,146,647 19.8

Utah

AAA Stable 20,702 111,301 18.6

Vermont

AA+ Stable 7,092 24,625 28.8

Virginia

AAA Stable 115,554 409,732 28.2

Washington

AA+ Stable 66,560 331,639 20.1

West Virginia

AA Stable 19,808 61,043 32.4

Wisconsin

AA Stable 61,280 239,613 25.6

Wyoming

AAA Stable 6,278 36,760 17.1
Average 24.6
Min 13.4
Max 37.6
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Consolidated Federal Funds Report for Fiscal Year 2009 (table 13); 2009 State GDP - Bureau of Economic Analysis. Ratings as of Aug. 17, 2011.

Table 2  |  Download Table

Total Federal Spending As % Of State GDP
Fiscal Year 2008
State Rating Outlook Federal spending (mils. $) Nominal state GDP (mils. $) % state GDP
Alabama AA Stable 47,966 169,694 28.3
Alaska AA+ Stable 9,423 49,186 19.2
Arizona AA- Negative 54,314 260,454 20.9
Arkansas AA Stable 23,857 99,497 24.0
California A- Stable 299,923 1,911,741 15.7
Colorado AA Stable 38,015 254,218 15.0
Connecticut AA Stable 38,879 225,958 17.2
Delaware AAA Stable 6,623 58,674 11.3
Florida AAA Stable 149,872 747,770 20.0
Georgia AAA Stable 74,165 405,269 18.3
Hawaii AA Stable 15,009 66,119 22.7
Idaho AA+ Stable 11,227 55,212 20.3
Illinois A+ Negative 100,672 637,037 15.8
Indiana AAA Stable 52,813 263,616 20.0
Iowa AAA Stable 23,927 134,959 17.7
Kansas AA+ Stable 25,129 125,333 20.0
Kentucky AA- Stable 52,264 155,592 33.6
Louisiana AA Stable 44,496 213,441 20.8
Maine AA Negative 11,974 49,972 24.0
Maryland AAA Stable 77,905 281,659 27.7
Massachusetts AA Positive 72,115 365,623 19.7
Michigan AA- Stable 82,933 375,436 22.1
Minnesota AAA Stable 38,246 262,758 14.6
Mississippi AA Stable 30,098 96,713 31.1
Missouri AAA Stable 60,829 241,344 25.2
Montana AA Stable 8,843 35,838 24.7
Nebraska AAA Stable 15,739 84,884 18.5
Nevada AA Stable 17,260 132,270 13.0
New Hampshire AA Stable 10,311 58,780 17.5
New Jersey AA- Stable 72,085 483,560 14.9
New Mexico AA+ Stable 23,846 77,168 30.9
New York AA Stable 174,071 1,109,080 15.7
North Carolina AAA Stable 70,203 403,927 17.4
North Dakota AA+ Positive 7,323 31,677 23.1
Ohio AA+ Stable 90,592 470,640 19.2
Oklahoma AA+ Stable 31,758 151,850 20.9
Oregon AA+ Stable 27,530 174,454 15.8
Pennsylvania AA Stable 121,551 545,198 22.3
Rhode Island AA Stable 9,841 47,378 20.8
South Carolina AA+ Stable 38,832 159,500 24.3
South Dakota AA+ Stable 8,552 38,293 22.3
Tennessee AA+ Positive 58,672 247,796 23.7
Texas AA+ Stable 210,005 1,202,104 17.5
Utah AAA Stable 17,117 112,353 15.2
Vermont AA+ Stable 6,080 24,636 24.7
Virginia AAA Stable 118,527 402,853 29.4
Washington AA+ Stable 56,436 334,477 16.9
West Virginia AA Stable 18,002 59,039 30.5
Wisconsin AA Stable 40,137 239,150 16.8
Wyoming AAA Stable 5,969 38,917 15.3
Average 20.7
Min 11.3
Max 33.6
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Consolidated Federal Funds Report for Fiscal Year 2009 (table 13); 2009 State GDP-Bureau of Economic Analysis. Ratings as of Aug. 17, 2011.
 

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Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:04 | 1574359 andybev01
andybev01's picture

Rubber & Glue bitchez!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 02:28 | 1576020 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

that's a 129 beyer speed rating;  we will accept a note from yer mom that it was just too much caffeine.  again

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:04 | 1574360 andybev01
andybev01's picture

(too much coffee...)

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:04 | 1574365 Sofa King
Sofa King's picture

On the plus side, they managed to get the SP500 to close over 1140.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:22 | 1574786 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Can we finally come to the conclusion that all the support levels, death crosses, Hindenburg omens, Dow Theory non-confirmations, and all the other Technical Analysis bullshit means nothing in an HFT algorithm-driven world where the computer programs know all of the technical analysis flags and can manipulate them at will. Anyone who still clings to and trades based on technical analysis is a nice, fat sheep served up to the HFT's to slaughter.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 19:14 | 1575141 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

Yep

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:05 | 1574368 caerus
caerus's picture

investigate this!

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:21 | 1574784 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

Speaking truth to a tyrant is a revolutionary act."  Good for the S&P.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:06 | 1574371 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Secret Service has some pics of S&P execs performing acts with Ukranian floozies. Just in case. 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:16 | 1574411 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Guess that's further proof it's not Stagflation LOL!

I guess your alternate reality is predicated on Graham Summer's $350/oz gold and discounted foodstuffs at Costco ;p

 

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/stocks-stock-market-...

 

 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:17 | 1574434 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Well it ain't. Stagflation that is. 

As far as alternate reality, what passes for reality these days is entertainment enough

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:24 | 1574461 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

The critical data you are missing is that Slavic Floozies are charging 32% less for services rendered whilst their purchasing power has plummeted. Their solution: wash less between Johns and work harder --.what's the revised Floozie exlpoitation ratio? Maybe Marx was right all along....

 

 

stag·fla·tion

Noun: Persistent high inflation combined with high unemployment and stagnant demand in a country's economy. 

 

Now you know.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:32 | 1574854 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Marx would have gone long on free love and flooze for soidarity.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:26 | 1575021 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Floozies Unite!!!

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:29 | 1574831 falak pema
falak pema's picture

That wasn't a floozie that was Timoschenko on parole.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:06 | 1574372 adr
adr's picture

Check out the market at the close. Looks like we can get a +500 day tomorrow. Massive buy ramp in the last 15 minutes. In 8 minutes the Dow jumped 119 points!!!

Someone must have caught the Algos and switched them off right before the close because the last 4 minutes saw 34 points drop off and the poor market couldn't hold 11k.

What a con game. Unbelievable.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:09 | 1574386 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

I covered some shorts.  I bet others did too.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:17 | 1574436 Cdad
Cdad's picture

I covered one in the iron ore group.  

I put another one on...in the restaurant group.

 

 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:15 | 1574419 adr
adr's picture

That close was crazy. Look at the 4PM volume. It looks like everyone screameed, "Don't buy sell, sell, sell." 70 million shares at 4pm unless I am reading that wrong.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:18 | 1574445 T-roll
T-roll's picture

I'm anxious to see what the next week of trading will bring with the run up to Jackson Hole.  I don't believe that Benny and the Jets will announce QE3.  I'm thinking we'll see the Dow below 10K and the S&P below 1,000 before the end of September.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:30 | 1574527 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

Unless Shalom Ben wants to be horsewhipped by Rick Perry, there'll be no more QE.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:27 | 1574822 falak pema
falak pema's picture

that convoluted? Repent and pray for the coming high rise of assets without artificial levitation.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:20 | 1574460 caerus
caerus's picture

you may be right...but the NQ knifed through (weak) short term support after testing the neckline at 2200 3 times in as many days...the indices appear to be moving together more or less, with a few days lag...NQ was 1964 at low on 8/9...i think we'll test those levels soon 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:31 | 1574533 maxmad
maxmad's picture

Nothing more than short covering... Expect the slide to continue tomorrow

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:07 | 1574378 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Well there hasn't been a federal budget for more than 800 days. Likely there won't be one for another 800 days.

Problem solved.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:18 | 1574441 DonnieD
DonnieD's picture

Exactly.

Let's keep score here: Obama can't pass a budget, had no plan in the debt debate and he has a jobs plan but won't share it until after vacation. But he knows what cars and trucks are profitable for GM and Ford to make and now he's starting a bitch fight with S&P because after the blowback from the downgrade it's going to take a little longer for him to get the greenback on par with Zim dollars.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:58 | 1574679 CH1
CH1's picture

But he's SOOOO dreamy!I saw it on TV! Important people say so!!!

Okay, I admit, I nearly puked writing that, but there are still a lot of people out there who believe network news. It is a massive evil that we are forcibly grouped with them.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:19 | 1574446 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Cause they're penning the massive fiscal stimulus at Martha's Vineyard. 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:07 | 1574379 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Yes, it's about time for S&P to be called before The Ministry of Truth alongside Meredith Whitney and those other desperados---Bill Gross, Roubini, Schiff, Paul, etc. Soon they will rename the S&P the B&T (Ben & Timmy Index).

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:15 | 1574425 Koffieshop
Koffieshop's picture

Ben & Timmy's:

Free icecream with the purchase of one AAA rating!

 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:08 | 1574381 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Too bad they killed off Seal Team 6, bitchez

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:04 | 1574715 chubbar
chubbar's picture

When you say "they" I hope you are not implying any nefarious actions by the US of A? They found and interviewed the Al CIAda operative like 48 hours after the incident who described in detail his actions and how surprised he was that the grenade actually landed in the copter. I mean really, how much more proof to you need that this was completely unforeseeable? Just a terrible act of war, please move along.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:08 | 1574383 pods
pods's picture

So if they say they will downgrade after a budget gets passed, does this mean never?  Or do continuing resolutions count?

pods

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:12 | 1574397 Prepared
Prepared's picture

what the hell is holding silver to it's knees???

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:16 | 1574427 T-roll
T-roll's picture

I think silver is stuck between it's role as money and as a commodity.  I believe silver will see a correction in the near term, then rebound and play catch up with gold. 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:18 | 1574440 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Silver needs to break $40 and the $45 and she will go off off and away. But first we need SP under 1100 and DOW under 10K which we may see by Aug25. And then..............and then....................

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:29 | 1574515 pods
pods's picture

No worries, once the large scale "kinetic action" is undertaken on old Hugo, silver will be in high demand as an industrial metal.  

What is it, like 8 kg per missile?

pods

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:49 | 1574635 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

The same thing holding up this rotten excuse of a market, Uncle Ben.  Silver goes nowhere until gold goes verticle and Ben ends the kick the can and buy gold slowly game.  Then silver rockets to the moon.  You will get paid.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:13 | 1574402 GiantWang
GiantWang's picture

God, I hate the end of day stock melt up . . . .

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:19 | 1574453 adr
adr's picture

Someone didn't want the end of the day meltup. Nasdaq hit 117 million shares at the close. Nearly 1/7th of the days volume.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:27 | 1574506 GiantWang
GiantWang's picture

Yeah bu ES gained something like 12 points in the last few minutes of trading.  Ridiculous.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:18 | 1574408 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

Something tells me S&Ps (top echelon) will all spontaneously decide the hop onto 1 plane or helicopter that than will suffer an unexplained technical malfuntion

or maybe find themselves on a bus stuck at a rail crossing, stranger things happened

or maybe they will just all spontaneously self combust ;)

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:47 | 1574620 Young Buckethead
Young Buckethead's picture

Or S&P is part of the plan. Deflate the balloon slowly, a carefully measured descent, so it doesn't get out of control of it's masters. Daily maneuvering for profit until it's time to implement the Final Solution.

The appearance of a fight with Barry, a Warren Commission in Congress, carefully controlled by that great disaster controller Grassley. Wait, wait until it's, just about, boom, it's gone. He's the best there ever was.

Meredith will be proven right, for all the wrong reasons.

 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:52 | 1574645 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Don't forget that beating up S&P attracts votes from sheeple.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:03 | 1574704 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Young Bucketheead, you have the best mind for involuted conspiracy on ZH.  Want to fondle my tits?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:24 | 1574806 falak pema
falak pema's picture

I don't see the link. Are your tits involuted arsenic fountains, occasionaly covered in old lace?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:14 | 1574413 Little John
Little John's picture

SMART CHICKS PARTY ticket for 2012

WARREN / WHITNEY (with Baer at treasury)

ya'll with me on this?

 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:04 | 1574711 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Where does Bachmann play into this?  Oh, I forgot, she is not a smart chick.  

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:15 | 1574424 shazbotz
shazbotz's picture
"Buy The Dip": If You Want To Lose Your Life Savings!!!

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJn24GHURXM

 


Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:15 | 1574426 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

Can we sell CA to Mexico and Il to Canada?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:23 | 1574475 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...can't sell what you don't own. lol.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:02 | 1574701 CH1
CH1's picture

Mexico might be tricked into taking California for historical reasons, but I don't think the Canadians would want Illinois - what a mess.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:17 | 1574431 deez nutz
deez nutz's picture

Bullet point number 1 says it all:

  • Federal deficit reduction could complicate state and local government fiscal management
  • Interpretation: without "Obamulous" States are fvkked.

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:20 | 1574458 Caviar Emptor
    Caviar Emptor's picture

    You got it

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:28 | 1575027 Kali
    Kali's picture

    80% of most of the major State Public Health programs in my State are funded by the feds, which in turn, pass through to the municipalities and counties.  All the big bolognas in PH Admin are shitting their pants right now, openly debating whether they will continue getting that money and WTF they will do if they don't.  I am not sure how much of other State programs are funded by Fed dollars, but I am sure things like Transportation, UEC, etc are either funded mostly by or get really cheap loans by the Feds in order to operate.  Most of the 50 States all operate the same way.  They will all collapse if the Feds ever turn off the spigots.

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:18 | 1574439 notadouche
    notadouche's picture

    S&P must be racist.  How dare they go against the Dear Leader's wishes.   Only this administration could have you root for these pathetic ratings agencies.  Funny how nothing was done when they screwed the pooch back in 07 but now all of a sudden the Gestapo goes after the for telling the truth about US Govt.  Hmmm....

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:20 | 1574454 T-roll
    T-roll's picture

    They're not racist.  The Koch brothers secretly bought S&P to make Obama look bad.

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:19 | 1574452 MsCreant
    MsCreant's picture

    S&P should do some B&D and down grade the SEC!

    Death Cross Trannie Pr0nz watcherz beware.

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:24 | 1574481 Sudden Debt
    Sudden Debt's picture

    Or the FED :)

    After the Ron investigation.

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 19:22 | 1575161 Arkadaba
    Arkadaba's picture

    Exactly! S&P should be investigated for grading tons of crappy assets as AAA a few years ago but I think the bigger culprit is the SEC which was outed this past week again: 

    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/is-the-sec-covering-up-wall-street-crimes-20110817

    Or investigate them both - okay, I know it will never happen - sigh.

    Fri, 08/19/2011 - 02:34 | 1576029 MsCreant
    MsCreant's picture

    The truth of it is...there are no adults in the room. Any room.

    Selfish hurt children, that is who is at the helm.

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:21 | 1574464 buzzsaw99
    buzzsaw99's picture

    MHP down 7.24%. Paybacks are coming from the evil empire.

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:22 | 1574470 ReallySparky
    ReallySparky's picture

    Something doesn't smell right about this whole S&P deal, I just can't believe that they have finally decided to get ethical/truthful/full of honor.  The truth always comes out, so someday we may find out what the heck is really going on.  Obivously, it won't matter then because we will be strickly a calorie based economy.

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:22 | 1574472 Sudden Debt
    Sudden Debt's picture

    Isn't there a law in America that puts a maximum term on the time that Banks can hold forclosed real estate on their books on which they have to sell it and book it to value?

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:31 | 1574532 pods
    pods's picture

    Probably, but like so many others we just ignore it.

    pods

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:25 | 1574490 PaperBugsBurn
    PaperBugsBurn's picture

     

     

    Banksters, bitchez!

     

    And so the mighty Ponzi that the once great USSA has become is torn down by the same banksters who gutted the mighty industrialized power.

     

    Who is John Galt? The banksters', bitches!

     

    see Murray Rothbard on Ayn Rand, morons.

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:32 | 1574535 tahoebumsmith
    tahoebumsmith's picture

    And look at California sitting at the bottom of the list clutching onto their A- rating.  That's right folks, the EIGHTH largest economy in the WORLD is barely holding on to its A- rating. Forget about Greece and Spain and Portugal and Italy, the ticking time bomb is closer to home then you think. California has been bailed out from Wall St. with free money they got from the FED. Everytime John Chiang fleeks out and claims he will be out of money within days, they send him a care package and tell him to crawl back into his hole and STFU. I'm with Meredith on this one, the Muni Apocalypse has been delayed with 400 Billion of the stimulus money however that money is now dried up....Muni Bitchez

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 19:47 | 1575213 andybev01
    andybev01's picture

    Cali: "All your monies are ours bitchez!"

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:36 | 1574560 the not so migh...
    the not so mighty maximiza's picture

    S&P might have a fully functioning death star

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:41 | 1574588 mendigo
    mendigo's picture

    the evil empire will have to be brought-down by someone on the inside

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:46 | 1574614 the not so migh...
    the not so mighty maximiza's picture

    I don't know now, S&P would not make these moves without the firepower to back it up.  Do they have evidence of the US goverment ordering the rating agencies to AAA+ pieces of shit?

     

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:54 | 1574656 Young Buckethead
    Young Buckethead's picture

    When enough people get the sickness, many will want to clean their conscience and tell all. Facing their own idea of Final Judgement, they will write/blog/testify to the evil that they, and other men, do.

    The final days will be whistleblower hell for the puppetmasters. Hard to threaten the life/financial security of someone and their whole family dying of cancer.

    Fuck 'em.

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:38 | 1574578 mendigo
    mendigo's picture

    apparently S&P is being investigated for optimistic ratings of MBS - how ironic

    well at least they have learned from the experience (now they are ratings Master!) - more than can be said for the rest of the group

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:44 | 1574602 the not so migh...
    the not so mighty maximiza's picture

    S&P will claim selective prosecution, moody's finch etc etc, where are they?

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:09 | 1574595 Flakmeister
    Flakmeister's picture

    Funny to see the correlation between Red/Tea Party States and the fraction of GDP originating with the Feds....

     

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:50 | 1574637 robertocarlos
    robertocarlos's picture

    Obama has more fire power, (twelve aircraft groups), but S&P has our hearts and minds.

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:56 | 1574667 Young Buckethead
    Young Buckethead's picture

    Wait until all the service people get the sickness and want to die with their families.

    Desertion, Bitchez!

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:04 | 1574712 prophet
    prophet's picture

    You might want to try that again.

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:57 | 1574673 I am more equal...
    I am more equal than others's picture

    Meredith Whitney will you marry me? 

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:05 | 1574718 slaughterer
    slaughterer's picture

    Meredith is taken, for now.  

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:11 | 1574745 marcusfenix
    marcusfenix's picture

    you know, this whole white house-S&P war would be amusing if it wasn't yet another example of how full on retard this whole DC circus has become. the finger pointing, pick somebody out of a hat to blame for problems that have been building for decades just further shows the rest of us who really owns USA inc. (or at least it should, sadly there is a large part of the population that are irrevocably addicted to the blue pill). it's sad and telling that while everything is crumbling around them our public servants grand plan to save the republic amounts to trying to "shoot the messenger"...   

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:13 | 1574753 PaperBugsBurn
    PaperBugsBurn's picture

    The funniest part is Tyler calling the brawl between "Obama" and S&P ridiculous.....lmao

    Tyler is scared shitless!!!

    Fight Club, bitchez!!

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 17:13 | 1574756 chubbar
    chubbar's picture

    IMO, this is a finely crafted take down of the world wide economy. QEx will happen until the time it is most suitable for the PTB to pull the plug. When that happens it ALL crashes within days. That is the plan. Not some bandaid plan into infinity. These asshats know what they are doing and it isn't ad hoc money thrown at random targets. They couldn't allow the munis to crash prior to when they wanted the world economy to crash. It a complete controlled demo of the system. It will look similar to WTC 7 in it's symetry.

    Fri, 08/19/2011 - 01:05 | 1575852 dalkrin
    dalkrin's picture

    Just so long as they don't do it while I'm on vacation in San Fran.  Would have to join the rioters and spill some blood if I was seperated from my stockpiles painstakingly assembled over the last year.  Definitely no plans to leave the country, I sense a disturbance in the force.

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 22:00 | 1574789 IMA5U
    IMA5U's picture

    I am surprised Macgraw Hill (MHP) has held up so well.  They own S&P and its about 50% of their revenues.  It is considered the "crown jewel" of their businesses.  Certainly much better than some of the book businesses they are in.  Last I checked, anything to do with books sooks.  Nebraska Books.  Cengage.  Barnes & Nobles.  Sold to you thank you very much.

    Also, the holders list has some fast money hedge funds.  There was actually some saber rattling of share holder activism this summer before the market started to really blow up.  Shareholer activism at the top of the market tend to be marginal ideas.  And one of the activists who was bulling up MHP is quite marginal and was struggling to make a positive return before the market puke.

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:44 | 1575068 Gromit
    Gromit's picture

    Munis getting a good bit lately, California GOs at high for the year.

    Good time to lighten up IMHO.

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 19:58 | 1575234 deflator
    deflator's picture

     The munis should have imploded per Meredith Whitney's call except for so much of the bailout "stimulus" being used to prop them up. It was a good call on Merediths part except she didn't forsee Federal intervention. I live near Memphis, TN and the amount of "sacred cows" in local government spending here in the face of obvious decline(against growth assumptions) can only end badly.

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 21:13 | 1575429 deflator
    deflator's picture

    Whilst on the topic of muni implosion in the U.S. does anyone care to speculate on a timeframe? Meredith was wrong on hers as is anyone without a long enough timeline. I'm guessing within the next 2 years. If there was true abundance as the cornucopian deflationists suggest then it would be a simple matter for central bankers and governments to rectify.

    Thu, 08/18/2011 - 21:54 | 1575596 Sathington Willougby
    Sathington Willougby's picture

     

    Show me a federal budget and I'll show you a president that can outwit a community college dropout.

    For Texas governors bump that down to high school prom queen.

    Fri, 08/19/2011 - 02:15 | 1575996 slewie the pi-rat
    slewie the pi-rat's picture

    this is the kinda shit that gives people brain freeze and i was wasted when i started
    i liked this (paste):
    But we note that, in our view, state and local governments have a strong track record of active budget management when it comes to responding to a constrained revenue environment. For example, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of June 2011, state and local governments had shed 499,000 jobs since June 2008. In the aggregate, payroll reductions are a part of overall spending cuts by state and local governments. (End Paste)

    i've seen this stuff before, and i probably just haven't seen the breakdown, you know, the details of the reports, that show those "aggregate" pay reductions for "state & local goobermints" 
    they saved more than $1, if i read this, correctly

    sounds like propagananda to slewie, but maybe if i cld just get a handle on how much "early retirement" and "benefits till death doo-doo 'US' part" this actually cost, plus the raises for the teams that made the cut and the union protection they have while they feed us this fuking horseshit...

    Tue, 08/23/2011 - 13:15 | 1590877 trentusa
    trentusa's picture

    do you guys think this article means tax-lien investing might not be sure as money in the bank @ 25% per annum anymore (bc essentially muni bonds?) soon, so don't get in now...anyone?

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