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Existing Home Sales Debacle, As Larry 'Baghdad-Bob' Yun Confirms Overstatement

Tyler Durden's picture





 

In what can only be described as completely unsurprising, Larry Yun of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) has admitted, according to CNNMoney, that maybe possibly they overstated, purely by accident, the number of existing homes sales statistic that has formed the cornerstone of his constant corner-turning commentary over the past few years. We have unequivocally challenged the Ph.D.'s claims as fudged and fabricated this year and even the Wall Street Journal, back in February of 2011, saw 'challenges' in the NAR's data when compared to other unbiased sources of the same reality. We can only assume that when Yun explains, in true Baghdad-Bob-style, the adjustments (when they are released on December 21st) that they will be either a signal that the bottom is in for home sales or that from such a low base, things can only get better. From our perspective, they remain irrelevant and untrustworthy with the CoreLogic data seemingly less naturally biased to an organization desperate for a foothold on the glimmering slope back to the American Dream.

 

From the WSJ's story in Feb 2011, the divergence of sales data is already egregiously overstated during the hey-days, let alone the downturn.

From CNNMoney: Existing home sales to be revised lower

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- If you thought the U.S. housing market couldn't get much worse, think again.

 

Far fewer homes have been sold over the past five years than previously estimated, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.

 

NAR said it plans to downwardly revise sales of previously-owned homes going back to 2007 during the release of its next existing home sales report on Dec. 21.

 

NAR's existing home sales numbers, released monthly, are a closely followed gauge of the health of the housing market.

 

While NAR hasn't revealed exactly how big the revision to home sales will be, the agency's chief economist Lawrence Yun said the decrease will be "meaningful."

 

"For the real estate business, this means the housing market's downturn was deeper than what was initially thought," Yun said.

 

Yun said the database NAR uses to track existing home sales, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS), has led the real estate agency to over-count existing home sales for several reasons.

 

The MLS database only includes home sales listed by realtors, and excludes homes listed by owners, providing a very narrow view of the market. And because more people are using realtors to list their homes instead of selling them independently, realtor-listed sales numbers have become artificially inflated, said Yun.

 

In addition, some of the assumptions NAR used in calculating its data have become outdated, since they were based on 2000 Census data.

 

The MLS has also been expanding its geographic coverage, so it may have appeared that there were more home sales simply because data from new areas were starting to show up. Also because of this geographic expansion, the system has been double-counting sales of some homes that can be considered part of multiple regions.

 

"Colorado Springs has their own database, but because the Denver market is nearby they may also list that home in the Denver database, so when the home gets sold, both Denver and Colorado Springs will say sales rose -- so that's genuine double-counting," said Yun.

 

Yun said NAR realized this upward "shift" in data during its most recent re-benchmarking process this year. With the help of the government, economists and other real estate groups, NAR has now taken these factors into account and will issue revised numbers on Dec. 21 at 10 a.m.

 

"There are multifaceted reasons why things were drifting upward in our database," said Yun. "We have tried to adjust for all these factors so that we have a better understanding of total home sales in America."

Yun emphasized that the revisions will have no impact on consumers because median home price data will not be revised.

Existing Home Sales (NSA) have shown a remarkably stable average over the past four years (that the downward revisions will impact). We can only wonder how these data changes will affect models of MBS prepayment speeds (among other variables) as very different months-of-supply data must change the picture that has been painted for the last few years.

 

 

We can only assume that when Yun explains, in true Baghdad-Bob-style, the adjustments (when they are released on December 21st) that they will be either a signal that the bottom is in for home sales or that from such a low base, things can only get better. From our perspective, the NAR data remain irrelevant and untrustworthy with the CoreLogic data seemingly less naturally biased to an organization desperate for a foothold on the glimmering slope back to the American Dream.

 


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Tue, 12/13/2011 - 23:39 | Link to Comment Real Money Wins
Real Money Wins's picture

And the lies just keep on rolling! Just like a bad movie!

This could make a good remake of the game of CLUE!

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 23:48 | Link to Comment FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Just keeping pace with the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

Remember to these people "1984" is the playbook.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:12 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

It's a mix of obvious bias and incompetence.  They baselined their figures in 2004 based upon existing home transactions from the 2000 Census.  Basically they massage the figures to take into account transactions that occur outside of MLS.  Needless to say, during the housing bust people were so desperate to sell their homes, every home for sale would have been on MLS (unlike the boom years where "pocket listings" were commonplace).  So the raw MLS numbers that were only expanded for coverage purposes were likely more accurate on their own, but they statistically massaged them upward anyway "just like they had always done" without paying attention (potentially willfully) to the obvious sea change in the housing market.  And I only mention the possibility of incompetence since they would have to know this would eventually come to light and ruin their credibility.  If they did it anyway, they are incompetent, if they didn't, they were even more incompetent.

 

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:36 | Link to Comment SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

At some point, the truth always comes out. Just in today's world, it is usually after the house of cards has fallen. 

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:59 | Link to Comment Pool Shark
Wed, 12/14/2011 - 02:01 | Link to Comment pavman
pavman's picture

That's funny.  A house I looked at that needed work is back on the market.  Looks like the new owners updated the kitchen, which had no cabinets when I looked at it, and possibly the bathrooms.  Original price: $309,900...(10/21/2010) ... bottom price: $235,500 (07/19/2011) ... Today's new listing price: $385,500.  So $20k of cabinetry in 5 months is worth $150K in sales price?  Wow, I hadn't realized wood was inflating that quickly!

Guess I should have bought the place, could have made a cool $130K in 5 months!  Or could have extended and pretended and re-listed.  I doubt it'll move for that price in that area, even if the kitchen no longer looks like crap.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 04:43 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Maybe they looked at "comps" (comps being another way to say "other pieces of shit").

 

Look we paid $200 to seal your driveway...that ought to add at least $2500 to the asking price!  Hey why don't we paint the walls for $1000?  That'll add at least $14,000 to the value!  That $6000 blue granite countertop...an extra $34k to the asking price!

 

See it's still easy to make money in real estate...just need to find another sucker.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 07:24 | Link to Comment Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

These clowns are full of shit. The real world decline in price is more than double what they state, some areas its triple. Now you have all these scam artists aka real estate agents convincing people to buy now cuz "prices have bottomed" and interest rates are low.

What do you think will happen when interest rates spike, scammers? What about the shadow inventory of 8 million homes that haven't even been foreclosed on? wait til commodity prices like oil and food start to go through the roof, too. Housing is FAR from bottom. And the scammers say people like me are crazy for having common sense

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:28 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I'm convinced that we're living in some real world version of a perverted Matrix, where the primary goal of governmental, NGOs & private companies and trade groups is singularly to say and/or publish anything, no matter how abusive of reality and facts the statements and publications are, to bolster confidence in the economic, political and regulatory systems, so as to be able to buy time (hoping for some real and positive data to emerge) or simply marginalize, to as great a degree as is possible, the awakening of the sheeple to their new reality.

Home sales, auto sales, retail sales (generally), inflation, unemployment/underemployment, true government debt/deficit levels, etc. etc. etc. - all dramatically butchered, with the goal of either creating false CONfidence or preventing the erosion of even more confidence than would take place if the truth was merely acknowledged in print.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 01:01 | Link to Comment greensnacks
greensnacks's picture

But isn't false confidence better than an over productive printing press? or gawd forbid, consumers stop buying worthless crap and start living like the rest of the world.

And it's only going to get worse. In California, they missed their budget projections and are about to gut another billion out of their economy. Come 2013, the Federal budgets automatic cuts are going to hit. I know a family that has not made a payment on their mortgage in 2 1/2 years. Who really knows how much zombie housing inventory still sits on banks balance sheets? Throw in Europe and Japan? maybe another war in the middle east? An overstated housing market will be the least of anyones concern.

 

 

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 03:32 | Link to Comment Michael
Michael's picture

If those people live in that house for another 19 1/2 years without paying a dime, they can claim the house and the land as their own for free.

Squatters rights.

At least squatters rights, with its 21 year limit, will put a limit on the entire housing charade. 

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 04:01 | Link to Comment Michael
Michael's picture

The Chinese housing bubble is bursting.

Once a mega ginormous housing bubble of biblical proportions starts to burst, there is nothing in the known universe that can stop the bursting.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 11:30 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

MAYBE 42.  Or a towel.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 08:09 | Link to Comment Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

The banks will show up in year 20 and thank the squatters for their stewardship.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 10:42 | Link to Comment FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

They probably can claim it - if they continue paying taxes - in less time than that, either by filing for quiet title or making a xase for adverse possession, which, here in NY, is 10 years.

I'm in a similar situation, with 2 1/2 years in on a house that I inherited and no bank currently after the property. BofA backed off a foreclosure filing of nearly 2 years ago due to faulty paperwork (robosigned assignment) and the NY courts' demands for lawyers to verify plaintiff claims. They're, in a word, toast.

Keep the taxes paid and the property in good shape and you can maybe sell it in a few years, or, better yet, once Fannie and Freddie completely implode, a HELOC could be in your future.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 10:03 | Link to Comment kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Totally agree... see my avatar.  There is an author Steven Lukes who talk about 3 dimensions of power.  I think that Noam Chomsky provides much of the same critique.  The matrix is one way of looking at it... I think of it as a controlled consciousness created for us.  A whole series of boxes into which we can thoughtless herd ourselves.  I think the single best example is the false choice provided to us through our two party system.  But there are even larger concepts that are equally misleading and ultimately herding.  Every "ism" is a box and every box destroys critical thought.  But people are fully invested in them, "political scientists" teach them, our television preaches them and it all becomes very real over time.  You can go up another step and look at religion, but anyone who has one isn't terribly interested in that discussion.

Fudging of the statistics is more a part of the second dimension.  It's more observable.  It's the 3rd dimension that is more matrix like.  It has more to with the crafting of our consciousness, either deliberately, or by a series of randomness, but the net result is still the same... a bunch of people plugged in.

 

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 13:15 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

In politics, the goal is to force your opponents (everyone not in the club) into binary decisions, each of which benefit you (but you may still have a preference for which choice is ultimately "chosen").  Political aptitude is simply your ability to politic.  Once politics becomes an institution, then political actors move into other areas of prospective control and repeat the same concept.  On a long enough timeline, the ability to choose to act has been taken...  given all practical choices benefit the politically entrenched.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 23:49 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Come on.  It was an honest mistake made by honest people in an honest reporting of the honest...

Ok, I cant do it.

Burn mother f*&*#$er.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:33 | Link to Comment Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

I didn't know you read ZH for material there, Harry Shearer...

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 23:51 | Link to Comment johnu78
johnu78's picture

It's like "Wag the Dog" meets "The Other Israel". :(

 

-John

http://www.youtube.com/CarMarketer

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 23:51 | Link to Comment navy62802
navy62802's picture

Like a fucking B flick horror show.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:28 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Um.  No.  B movies still have a happy ending.  This is not done ending very poorly.  That makes it a Kevin Costner film.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:43 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

and just like a Costner flick, the least talented guy makes the most money

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:02 | Link to Comment johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

When Yun shows up live on Bubblevision to discuss the "revisions" it will be worth a 6 pack and bag of popcorn. I just wonder if they are going to back out the foreclosure sales BACK to the banksters from their numbers or just gloss those over in the "revisions" also....

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:04 | Link to Comment Pinch
Pinch's picture

If you want to see lies, look into what's happening in Australia. The Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA) and its running dogs are constantly touting price increases around the corner, recovery imminent, now's a good time to buy, and all the rest of the usual cr@p. The bubble is only starting to burst here.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:12 | Link to Comment GenXer
GenXer's picture

But Australia is different. They have golden beaches, and housing shortages and house prices approaching 10 x the average salary. The only way is up for the aussie market, it will be double in 5 years! Invest now or miss out....(Now that is Baghdad Bob)

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:13 | Link to Comment dow2000
dow2000's picture

Remember that 134.5 BILLION in Kennedy Bonds confiscated at the Italian/Swiss Border in 2009? On November 23, 2011, the clouds parted. A vast, 111-page legal complaint was filed in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York . Its very off topic but an old story is gaining new traction over the last couple weeks on several other "fringe" sites.  Time for the best one to put out the expose, it has HUGE negative implications for the TPTB...TYLER please try and cover this story!

Check links below for details:

http://divinecosmos.com/start-here/davids-blog/995-lawsuit-end-tyranny

and a supporting tell all interview here: 

http://divinecosmos.com/podcasts/Wilcock_Fulford_2011-12-02.mp3    
Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:50 | Link to Comment Iwanttoknow
Iwanttoknow's picture

Dow 2000,

I may be afool.lately i've begun to believe Benjamin Fulford.Thanks for spreading the word.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 02:15 | Link to Comment Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

What a shock, a shock.  I had a sneaky suspicion that these housing numbers where being manipulated from the time of the meltdown but I didn't know it was that much and over the course of this many years.  You mean to tell me that nobody bothered to check.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 23:41 | Link to Comment bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

What a bunch of cocksuckers

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:02 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

You took the words right out of my mouth.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 23:42 | Link to Comment sabra1
sabra1's picture

i'm 100% confident, that he dow will do the right thing, and adjust the true value of the markets, concerning this, this fraud! OH MY GWARSH! WHERE DOES IT END? TELL ME, TELL ME, I SAY!!!!!

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 23:43 | Link to Comment Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

It really does beg the question....have we reached exponential, if not geometric, growth in lies? 

And how many more lies have to be revealed and added to the mix before the whole thing collapses?

My God.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 23:43 | Link to Comment Outlaw Of The W...
Outlaw Of The Wasteland's picture

a commie chink.........why not?

complete and utter infiltration guised as "diversity"

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:19 | Link to Comment GenXer
GenXer's picture

Of Course Corzine didn't know what was going on. That is why Biden and Obama make the first call to him when things go wrong with the economy "...because John knows what to do"

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 23:54 | Link to Comment DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

There's something wrong in the system, if sets of revised data from BLS, and elsewhere are frequently > 2 std.

 

 

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 23:47 | Link to Comment The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

Regardless of all of the 'bottom callers'...Residential housing has so much more to go down!!  the more they mess with it, the longer it takes and the larger the drop...Period!!!!

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 23:49 | Link to Comment Blorf
Blorf's picture

So they are taking a cue from BLS bureaucrats?  If the sales numbers suck, just change the definition of a sale!

 

Given up looking for a job?  Congratulations, you're no longer unemployed!

Given up trying to sell your house?  Awesome, let's remove it from the available inventory!

Are you doing census work/holiday sales for a few weeks to avoid starvation?  Congratulations on the new career!

Is the bank paying your mortgage to avoid taking a loss on the balance sheet for the loan?  It's a win-win!

 

We need a 3x ETF for lies and rumors.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:04 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

+10000. If Japan can change the definition of GDP to boost it by 2%, why not just change the definition of 'home sale' and make the numbers better. After all, reality doesn't matter, its the numbers that count, right? Fuckheads, all of them.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 23:53 | Link to Comment Triple A
Triple A's picture

I know of several people living in their homes without paying their mortgage. I'm talking like 700,000 up to several million dollar homes. Soooo many people are doing the same thing and if it were not the case the economy would be way more fucked.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:44 | Link to Comment J 457
J 457's picture

'living in their homes."  Their homes?  Its the banks home, they are just squatters.  And now the taxpayer is paying their mortgage for them every time Ben buys a MBS and tosses it over to FNM to launder clean.  Free market- kick the deadbeats out ASAP w/o eviction notice.  Then we've got free market.  Break up the big five banks while you're at it. 

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 12:57 | Link to Comment BidnessMan
BidnessMan's picture

Issuing an Eviction Notice would kill "Extend and Pretend" - meaning the Lender would have to admit the mortgage is in default.  Would break the banks, which the Fed is never going to allow.  Keeping banks from ever going bust is the original and primary mission of the Fed.  Why they are buying up MBS.  

Also note that once the lender takes over the property, in Florida at least the lender becomes liable for the prior six months of overdue condo or association dues, plus all condo and assocaition dues going forward.  So there is a huge "shadow" backlog of foreclosures that Banks are avoiding.  In Judicial foreclosure states like Florida, the court system is overwhelmed.  Florida had a Linda Green foreclosure "Rocket Docket" for a while, but that ran out of funding, and the Florida legislature refused to extend it.  Court budgets have been whacked, so the foreclosure timeline is rapidly extending.  The "strategic defaulters" recognize all this.  Their credit rating gets whacked, but apparently for many an acceptable trade-off for free housing for years.  

There will have to be some kind of debt 'Jubilee' restart at some point - explicit or de facto - because all the debt can't possibly be repaid.  Mathematically impossible.  But in the meantime, people who actually pay their mortgage are effectively chumps.  Life certainly is not "fair".  But get over it.  The system is terminally corrupt.  The average guy sees that no banker has done a perp walk over any of this.  Anthony Mozillo takes $500M+ less a $22M fine, and walks.  MFGlobal takes $1B+ of customer money and it seems to be de facto okay despite some congressional hearing drama.  Compared to all that, "strategic defaulting" is no more of a moral problem.  And I say that as a chump who is still paying his mortgage.  

Actually, if everyone stopped paying their mortgage, it would accelerate the inevitable reset.  So maybe the "strategic defaulters" are doing us all a favor, and the problem is people who are still paying their mortgage and perpetuating the "extend and pretend".      

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 23:57 | Link to Comment navy62802
navy62802's picture

The only comment about how large the revisions will be is that they will be "meaningful." This is going to be quite a shit show. Hell, it already is.

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 23:58 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Yet another lie perpetrated by liars.  Alert the press.  Big news.  Yawn.

Wake me up when the big turds start hitting the fan.

This thing is unraveling nicely.  Not just housing -- I mean the whole shebang.   Lovin' it.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:07 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Western civilization sails slowly down the river toward Niagara Falls, while the majority worry about whether or not they PVR'd GLEE tonight. Gonna be a lot of really surprised, really unhappy people sometime in the next couple of years.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:48 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

at least we beat them to it, that really unhappy part

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 09:04 | Link to Comment pine_marten
pine_marten's picture

Now that there is funny Davey!  Ignorance is bliss was never a truer statement.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 02:37 | Link to Comment Tom Servo
Tom Servo's picture

NIAGRA FALLS! Slowly I turn. Step by step. Inch by Inch.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 02:55 | Link to Comment Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

A total eclipse arrives now and Niagara Falls
No loss of blood yet and no further calls

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 13:59 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

come to think of it, we are run by a cast of stooges

Tue, 12/13/2011 - 23:58 | Link to Comment pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

the revisions will make data look better going forward ... right?

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:01 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Yes.  Since the hopium has already spent from previous weeks this will drop the bar and introduce a new hopium.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:07 | Link to Comment sabra1
sabra1's picture

the premis of the soon to be in hell globalists, is to own all properties, making renters of us all, and dependent on food stamps, and cannot afford medicare. they must all be hung before we are too weak, and sick malade!

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 02:47 | Link to Comment wisefool
wisefool's picture

Well then the global mafia can tell the local mafias that those property taxes will not be paid. They'll have to decide whether or not they are going to send out those "pension" checks to the guy who held office for the whole 2 years before they got there. Cause if a serf asks that question at a council meeting they typically get a citation for some great offense with in a few weeks or so.

I'd love to see a parking ticket on the Corzine-mobile.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:08 | Link to Comment DonutBoy
DonutBoy's picture

Don't be chumps.  The only reason for this come to Jesus moment is to encourage the Fed to buy MBS pronto.  He'll probably under-report.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 02:04 | Link to Comment Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

DING DING DING DING

WE HAVE A WINNER !!!!

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:08 | Link to Comment Jena
Jena's picture

Lies, damn lies and statistics.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:28 | Link to Comment Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Liars lie with everything including statistics...

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:37 | Link to Comment Jena
Jena's picture

In fact, it seems the statistics make the lies seem most convincing.  At least 77% more convincing when a statement has a statistic or some sort of reaffirming number in it.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:49 | Link to Comment Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Unless you studied applied probability and zero in on articles, speeches and statements to see what shit head <COUGH> Larry Yun <COUGH> Obama Bin Lyin'... shit head... is misusing a statistic for now...

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 02:06 | Link to Comment Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

OOHHhhhh 77%.....pretty number (eyes glazed over)....I'm convinced!

 

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:11 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

This will be a better country once the FIRE economy is derailed.  I would trust a realtor no more than a used car salesman.  The rent seeking parasites have overgrown their host and now must die.  Good riddance.  November retail sales were overstated (not even to mention the survivorship bias), NAR has been overstating sales for years, BLS has been overstating employment and other stats for decades.  Believe half of what you see and none of what you hear.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:13 | Link to Comment whatswhat1@yahoo.com
whatswhat1@yahoo.com's picture

LIES REHYPOTHECATED

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:58 | Link to Comment Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

False statements cubed?

 

Is that how they become true?

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 02:07 | Link to Comment Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

+1000 Rehypothecations

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:17 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

 

 

Economists Raising Growth Forecasts 2010 

  •          Green Shoots
  •          Animal Spirits
  •          Soft Patch
  •          Firm Footing
  •          Real Consumer Spending
  •          Better than Expected
  •          Improvements in Sever Weather       

All of these buzzwords were to help Jump Start construction jobs and new housing expansion. Those were the days…eh? 

Getting a day laborer from Home Depot

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:16 | Link to Comment Rob Jones
Rob Jones's picture

"Too many people were starting to realize that our old figures were being fudged. So we need to come out with totally new figures that are slightly less fudged."

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:20 | Link to Comment Dr.Evil
Dr.Evil's picture

What's next? Unemployment?

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:22 | Link to Comment Ineverslice
Ineverslice's picture

Since '07, I've asked how does this idiot still have his job!  "Right now is a great time to buy!",  Lawrence Yun.   What a dickhead.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:26 | Link to Comment Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Lawrence Yun... What a maroon...

What an ultra maroon...

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:27 | Link to Comment navy62802
navy62802's picture

The problem with lies is that the bigger they get, the harder it is to keep them all straight. That's why we get the seemingly disjointed data streaming from official sources. For instance, the same week we learn that there's a record 46.3 million Americans on foodstamps, we also learn that the unemployment rate fell precipitously to 8.6%. I call this unrelenting stream of senseless data the cacophony of lies.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:29 | Link to Comment Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

does that mean there really was a better time to buy a house than now ??????????.....is anyone still paying these liars 6% ??

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:30 | Link to Comment williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

The Pope of Poop

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:32 | Link to Comment Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

Anyone in the lending world who has had to deal with a REALTOR is not at all surprised at the whistle-past-the-graveyard drivel her trade group produces.  Of course its horseshit!

Don't make too big a batch of popcorn for this shill's reveal on CNBS et al, btw.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:39 | Link to Comment 2discern
2discern's picture

Is there any gov, financial, poll, political entity that actually tells the truth anymore? Back when I first commented on ZH it still stands, without "just weights and measures" the system crumbles. Whether PONZI-ville, obamaville, TBTF Bankville, without truth as supreme guide and rule it will fall. Gee, sounds like building a house on sand...the rains came and...

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:40 | Link to Comment rfaze
rfaze's picture

I have been trying to find a house to buy for the last 2 years. I have been tracking listing prices and "sold" prices on zillow. The MLS data is Bull shit. I have often seen houses, that I knew what they sold for, have a sold price of 10-15k more on the MLS listing.  I've been saying this to realtors everytime they try to give me "comp.s" on a house I have made an offer on.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:43 | Link to Comment Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

Trust your REALTOR, they are backed by the NAR, afterall.

They have electrolytes.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:53 | Link to Comment Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Know why a used car salesman is better than a real estate agent???

At least a used car salesman is chained to his lot...

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 01:46 | Link to Comment acdcbag1
acdcbag1's picture

I understand your frustration.  But let me help you.  Zillow does not equal the MLS.  Are we clear?  As a Realtor, let me advise you to only buy short sales and foreclosures at embarrassing low prices.  Also, if you want to sell, now is a great time to do that since it is going to get worse before it gets better.  I would also love to see an example of "I have often seen houses, that I knew what they sold for, have a sold price of 10-15k more on the MLS listing" and maybe I can get down to the bottom of your bs.  Have a great day *smile*

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:51 | Link to Comment Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Go back to the rice fields Yun you fucking idiot!

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 00:57 | Link to Comment Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Yun can't... They subdivided the field 7 McMansions to an acre...

Rice Paddy Estates...

Starting at the mid $400k... Creative financing available... Ask our loan specialists today!

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 01:02 | Link to Comment Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Realtors are by far the most self absorbed, poorly trained, under licensed, badly educated, narcisstic and fucking useless demographic ever to stick their faces on a fucking park bench!

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 01:15 | Link to Comment CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Forgot about financial advisors?

Here's you pie chart fucker. Next!

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 01:10 | Link to Comment Artful Dodger
Artful Dodger's picture

We can only assume that when Yun explains ... the adjustments ... they will be either a signal that the bottom is in for home sales or that from such a low base, things can only get better.

Brilliantly funny.

Incidentally: "You know, because it's not our organization's key competency to fully understand stuff like statistics and the assumptions underpinning them at all times, we have the following to say":

Yun said the database NAR uses to track existing home sales, the Multiple Listing Service (MLS), has led the real estate agency to over-count existing home sales for several reasons. ... In addition, some of the assumptions NAR used in calculating its data have become outdated.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 01:23 | Link to Comment Georgesblog
Georgesblog's picture

The past 3 years has seen inventory bulldozed, turning housing developments into empty lots. Sales aren't the only way to reduce inventory. Unfortunately,  the cash flow goes negative.

http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/11/02/the-daily-climb-2/

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 01:28 | Link to Comment Razor33
Razor33's picture

I'm so f*^%ing over it! 

No one around me cares.  The Fourth Turning, The end of our Currency Cycle, Peak Oil, Political Clowns, Banks bailing out banks with money printing, Off loading risky Private debt by making it Public debt, Bailing out debt with more debt, and our civil rights vaporized with no resistance.  This is actually happening.  Zero Hedge is one of the few places that I can go and not feel completely out of my mind, when I'm surrounded by so many Sheeple.

I can't stand going to parties or having nice small talk.  I can no longer respect the illusion!   I CAN NO LONGER RESPECT THE ILLUSION !!  No one wants to believe it so they dismiss the reality...dismiss it without even looking into it, WTF is that !  

...The Illusion...

 

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 02:15 | Link to Comment Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

That's why we come here to ZH my friend......many of us believe and see the Matrix for what it is.

I told someone else earlier on another post that I can no longer dream since I awoke from the Matrix.  I live in a perpetual state of mourning.  But I do find some solice and strength from folks like you.

Hang in there bro'....I'm all ears.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 02:40 | Link to Comment I Got Worms
I Got Worms's picture

I'm standing right there beside you brother! My wife now wants me to see a phyciatrist - she thinks I've become delusional since I started talking about the Federal Reserve or 9/11 or vaccines or chemtrails or anything that she didn't see on Regis and Kellie (she also thinks I spend way too much time reading this site).  Little does she know that zerohedge IS my therapy.

Funny you mention the Fourth Turning - just finished reading it a few hours ago. Unreal how prescient the authors were back in the 90's. After reading their prediction of the national mood during the Crisis, I have become more optimistic that Ron Paul will get the nomination.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 13:05 | Link to Comment Jena
Jena's picture

I don't suppose you can get her to read the site?  Start her off with something easy, not the Fed or 9/11 stuff but something that to the ZH way of thinking might be easy to take.  The thing is, when things get bad in addition to guns, ammo and food, we're all going to need to stay close to the ones we love.  If you can bring her along, so much the better.  (And who knows, maybe you can wean her off Regis and Kelly, FFS.)

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 13:12 | Link to Comment Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

"Little does she know that zerohedge IS my therapy."

That's some serious truth there brother !

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 01:30 | Link to Comment imaginalis
imaginalis's picture

He should be prosecuted for conspiricy to commit fraud.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 01:33 | Link to Comment owensdrillin
owensdrillin's picture

So let me get this right. People who own houses are not paying their mortgage and living "rent free". People who are renting are paying or else their ass is on the street two months later. Who is the criminal and destroying the housing market.

Those mortgages should have never been given to the deadbeat cocksmokers that got them but it's way too late to turn back the clock  Any bank or credit union with half a brain would lend to the renters with jobs, regardless if they defaulted before, as prices and interest rates are so fucking low that there just ain't much downside risk for the lender (other that rates going to the moon). They gave mortgages to every Tom, Dick and Habib when prices were high and sucked them into ARMs but it is impossible get a loan now that prices and interest rates are way down.

You want to turn the economy around? Start selling the shitbox houses to renters who are working. Who cares if they work at Burger King or Wallmart. They are paying rent to someone right now and I bet it is no more than the mortgage payment they will have once they buy. They may not buy an ipad next year but could possibly put in a new tub surround. I bet some young kids would may even get excited about owning something they could fix up and fuck around in.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 05:32 | Link to Comment The Invisible H...
The Invisible Handjob's picture

The irony is I know low-incomers who were given mortgages they could never possibly afford ("deserve" if you will) but that are still scraping tooth and nail to keep paying and hang on to their piece of shit underwater house, while others in my acquaintance with fat bags of wealth are doing "strategic defaults" either to walk from an underwater property, or, knowing they won't be foreclosed because their bank is trying to drag out the pain, just laughing up their fat assholes while they don't pay.   Yep throw the strategic defaulter fuckers out on the street and give their houses to your renters. 

And fuck the NAR and 90% of the real estate industry.  We had an appraiser this year so incompetent she performed and filed an entire appraisal based on pulling the completely wrong parcel data for some house down the street, and was so stupendously confident in her stupidity she declared the town had all their records wrong and the taxes were vastly mis-assessed and somebody was owed an abatement.  Wrong. Fucking. Parcel. Cunt. 

Actually I guess in realtor terms she probably just qualified herself for a massive promotion.  She'll do just fine working for Mr. Yun clearly. 

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 01:38 | Link to Comment Matxeu
Matxeu's picture

I wrote the NAR a few months ago and told them to say that the housing crisis would never end in order to stoke the fire of contrarians.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 01:42 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

It just never stops. The lies go on and on. What the hell has happened to this once great country. One step closer to tyranny and one step further away from the blood and toil of our forefathers who created this nation.

Out sun is setting too quickly. 

 

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 02:01 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Lies, damn lies and Govt statistics

..and the Winner of Biggest Liar in every country for every year in history is... Govt

Zero Tax = Zero Govt = Zero Lying Public Sector Scum

Stop paying your taxes people, give your ears a break from these windbag wankers

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 04:19 | Link to Comment Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

Just like the report out last week that unemployment has gone down to 8.0 from 9.1 which is fukin impossible when were hemorageing jobs every month ever since this ass clown took office. so I ask my fellow zero henge reader.. WTF??

With all due disrespect Mr. Prez. All the models and charts are f-ing broken.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 02:06 | Link to Comment zebra
zebra's picture

yan can cook

yun can cook even better

yum yum!!

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 02:37 | Link to Comment the 300000000th...
the 300000000th percent's picture

Who the hell is supposed to buy this BS hopium propaganda?

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 04:32 | Link to Comment MiniCooper
MiniCooper's picture

These kinds of statistical errors can easily happen for a perfectly honest reason(s) as seems to have occured here. The phenomenon of confirmation bias though means the error is less likely to be picked up.

From Wikipedia: Confirmation bias (also called confirmatory bias, myside bias or verification bias[1]) is a tendency for people to favor information that confirms their preconceptions or hypotheses regardless of whether the information is true. 

Realtors and housebuilders and everyone concerned with the housing market wants prices to rise and the numbers of sales to go up and the numbers of mortgages and the amount being lent to go up.  The erroneous data seems to confirm what everyone wants to hear so naturally very few people would question it. It would more likely have been questioned earlier if it had been an error causing an unusual undershoot in the reported index.

Credit goes to NAR for looking at the data carefully and presenting their findings and their proposed revisions.

I think it very likely that in the current climate, a good number of economic data series may potentially contain errors that are not being picked up because of confirmation bias. It would be useful if the underlying raw unprocessed data and sources for all major series (especially employement, GDP and inflation) were published so anyone who had the time and inclination could process the data themselves. This would be a quick and cheap way for important series to be independently checked on a continuous basis.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 07:24 | Link to Comment Sofa King
Sofa King's picture

Statistical approximation was required in the past due to the shear volume of information and the time required to tabulate and calculate.  Not required anymore.  All information reagarding home sales is availabe directly from the counties and these assclowns have the ability to access and tabulate it.  So they are either too lazy or too stupid or too scared to do it.  Smart money is on too scared. 

Statisitcs and Ecomomics...two made-up sciences that piss me off.

While I'm ranting...a banker is not a Technocrat, he's a Kleptocrat.  Why can't the MSM get that shit straight?

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 08:43 | Link to Comment overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

"the great depression could have been avoided if the gov had reported that things were much better than the data showed" Ben bernak how to avoid a 2nd great depression. he's the expert don'tcha know?

the more non headline news you view you get the idea that the gov is preparing the military for homeland security ops (drones in ND story today as an example)

trying to connect a dot or two..perhaps too many of us are becoming aware of the true situation in good ol USA and the gov knows it and like all good fascist states fears it's people the most.

vote ron paul and expect him to be nullifed in some way, but vote and then when your vote is nullifed act.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 09:28 | Link to Comment somethingelse
somethingelse's picture

how does it make sense to revise/correct all the raw data but yet keep the median home price fixed that was based on the erroneous data?

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 10:20 | Link to Comment NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

1.  Scary that the government helped them with the new numbers

2.  How do you make this mistake for over 2 years

3.  Who is still using 2000 census data as 2010 was released a while back and the census has interim year estimates

4.  This is what we, the strongest, smartest country in the world base our hope on...failed analytics that most high schoolers could have figured out...

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 10:42 | Link to Comment FLUSA.com
FLUSA.com's picture

100% fact is what should come out of NAR's reports....a good agent can make money in a market going down or up..

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