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Explaining The European €2.5 Trillion Liquidity Catch 22 Closed Loop

Tyler Durden's picture





 

If anyone is confused about what the real issue in Europe is, the following two charts should explain it all.

Because stripping all the recent rhetoric and bluster about this insolvent nation or that, the real explanation for Europe's troubles, and the real reason why virtually every country except for Germany, is essentially insolvent (something that has absolutely nothing to do with how much liquidity the ECB can provide, and in fact by making liquidity free to fill transitory needs, the ECB enables even more destructive behavior that does nothing to fix the cause), has to do with the flow of cash. And specifically the transfer of cash within the mercantilist union.

The first chart below summarizes the various individual current account deficits (accumulated over the past decade) within the Eurozone, and how it is clearly in Germany's best interest to perpetuate a common currency, which prevents its legacy currency, the DEM from soaring, and thus crippling intraunion current account flows that benefit Germany. As for external trade flows: the weaker the Euro, the better so Europe can export its stuff to China and the US (hence the need for a perpetual threat of a PIIGS Implosion, which prevent the EUR from rising on endless concerns foa default).

Source: Diapason

Now this plan worked for many years, until about 5 years, the debt capacity of the Periphery started getting filled, and instead, via the Eurosystem Banks hub and spoke system, of which the ECB is at the hub, those countries with current accounts had to start funding indirectly, via TARGET2, the capital deficiency of the big CA deficit countries. The second chart below shows just how far this divergence has gotten.

Source: Goldman

The problem, as we noted last year, is that the system may have crossed a threshold where Germany's explicit funding of the CA deficit transgressors is now far too large for it to be sustainable (as Jens Weidmann has now confirmed).

Alternatively, should the status quo continue, and it very well may with just bailout after bailout in store - in other words the same defection-encouraging game theory stance - the only way it can work is if Germany continues to recycle the CA surplus right back into the European periphery. There is, however, no ceiling to this activity, and in several years, the German TARGET2 "receivable" will be in the trillions, or well greater than its entire GDP.

And that, in a nutshell, is what is happening in Europe.

Everything else is merely noise masking the expansion of the relationship whereby Germany pretends its increasing losses, in the form of recycled sunk Current Account "costs" as a victory.

 


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Tue, 03/06/2012 - 14:58 | Link to Comment treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

Its okay, we're "uncoupled"....

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:07 | Link to Comment flacon
flacon's picture

Can we get gold and silver to decouple from the EUR? 

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:11 | Link to Comment treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

guess we're gonna sell the real deal to cover for the fake deal.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:20 | Link to Comment kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Comrade father/general Ben can fix this is in 15 minutes.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:51 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

Of course, he can raise interest rates in 15 minutes if he has to ... the world money markets is solely dependent on this fidgeting lier.

mean while ...

ISDA:Fuck .... you will make us go bankrupt Jon!

.....

Jon Corzine: No, you dont declare a credit event and i dont exercise those nukes, lets do the catch 22 and get the real thing gold and silver from those fucking greek goys!

ISDA: What a true fucking kyke you are!!!

Jon Corzine: ^ ^

 

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 19:44 | Link to Comment Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

Damn evil german zionista kyke banksters bankrupting all of Europe so they can live high off the bogus hog!

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:23 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

we have a winner.  Same as it ever was.  now about your "prize"...

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 18:55 | Link to Comment Freegolder
Freegolder's picture

Yeah, actually gold is already decoupled from the Euro (just check the ECB's accounts every quarter).

Freegold will solve all of these problems, and it is inevitable.

Just google is if you want to know more.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:29 | Link to Comment GenX Investor
GenX Investor's picture

Coupling is a great UK tv show, or as the German's call it Pärchenabend.  A must watch...

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 16:57 | Link to Comment JennaChick
JennaChick's picture

So Kyle Bass was right after all: http://www.armadamarkets.com/market-info/videos/

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 17:31 | Link to Comment battle axe
battle axe's picture

Of course we are "uncoupled" everything will be fine in the old USA, because the geniuses that were in charge back in 08 have all been replaced. Wait a minute!

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:00 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:06 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

MMT. We all shadow the FED.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:14 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I couldn't believe it as I just discovered it.

Funniest wiki page ever by a mile.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:49 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Wow, reading that explains an awful lot about what's going on in the world today.  Or at least it explains why so many people seem willing to check common sense at the door when it comes to deficits, monetary policy, etc.  Amazing that people actually can convince themselves to believe such complete and utter bullshit.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 16:13 | Link to Comment r00t61
r00t61's picture

Modern Monetary Theory - a school of economic theory so whack that even Paul "I never met I stimulus I didn't like" Krugman disagrees with its core premise: that deficits don't matter so long as you can print.

I personally despise MMT because it's just another gigantic statist utopia: it requires the presence of monolithic government, it requires that government to impose a legal tender law (making only government fiat usable for paying debts), creating its closed-loop system, and it assumes, a priori, that government has the RIGHT to tax people in order to fund itself.

In MMT, people are just vessels to be taxed for their productivity, all to enable the perpetuation of the state that imposes its MMT-system upon those people in the first place.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 18:53 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I gave you a compulsory +1 on the basis of your 1st paragraph, alone.

"A system so whack that even Paul Krugman says...hey....wait a minute there....that's crazy talk," as he endorses his 227 trillion USD Hostile Extraterrestrial Invasion From Uranus Earth Defense Stimulus Plan (aka A Proton Phaser in Every Backyard).

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 20:19 | Link to Comment hamurobby
hamurobby's picture

Aw be nice to Paulie, he said we needed only 7 trillion or so to start.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 17:39 | Link to Comment Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

@ r00tl1, And why are they able to print to infinity?  Because everyone is a slave used as collateral. 

Exactly how all this was orchestrated is too lengthy to be addressed here, but this much can be told. The original birth or naturalization record for every U.S. Citizen is on file in the official records in Washington, D.C. (you get to keep a copy!) and the property and assets of every living U.S. Citizen is pledged as collateral for the National Debt!

Within two weeks and three days each Certificate of Live Birth is to be filed in Washington D.C. Evidence reveals that there is even a Federal Children Department established by the Shepherd/Townsend Act of 1922 under the Department of Commerce that appears to be involved in this process in some way. Every citizen is given a number (the red number on the Birth Certificate) and each live birth is valued at from 650,000 to 750,000 Federal Reserve dollars in collateral from the Fed.

http://viewzone.com/collateralx.html

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 19:04 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

from the link...

"It seems that back in 1913 the United States was short of cash. World War I had depleted the treasury and there were several really bad financial panics..."

Really?... World War I (which started in 1914), had "depleted the treasury" in 1913?

Some war, huh?

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 16:55 | Link to Comment Matt
Matt's picture

It accurately describes why we pay taxes if the government just prints the money:

Because the government can issue its own currency at will, MMT maintains that the level of taxation relative to government spending (the government's deficit spending or budget surplus) is in reality a policy tool that regulates inflation and unemployment, and not a means of funding the government's activities per se.

So if we didn't have to pay taxes in dollars, people wouldn't work for dollars, so the dollars would have no value. You must pay taxes, otherwise the dollars don't exist.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:22 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

I thought it said Charlitanism - my bad.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:54 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

No one will believe me - this is absolutely not a joke - but I have dyslexic bouts sometimes when I read very quickly, and genuinely  thought that's what it said, too, hence my posting it.

Then again, can anyone who understands the system honestly blame me?

Again, I really did think the wiki link read 'Charlatism,' and that someone had hijacked the page to describe MMT there.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 02:18 | Link to Comment andyupnorth
andyupnorth's picture

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlitain

I had the same confusion.

Thank you so much TruthInSunshine.  When scrolling down the comments section, I always stop and read what you say (and give you a green thumbs up).

You bring valuable information to those of us who are  seeking the truth.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 16:21 | Link to Comment Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Can Chartalism be linked to Americanism Citizenisms?

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 16:25 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

I believe it's a symptomism.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 16:49 | Link to Comment Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Truism.

(Edit: re chartalism)

A lie, told often enough, becomes the truth.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 17:29 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Anyone using the words "mercantilist union" in describing the eurozone just gives away he's bias and propagandistic intent. Tsk, tsk...

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 18:18 | Link to Comment Hooter Shaker
Hooter Shaker's picture

Charlatanism...

 

Edit:  Damn, someone beat to the punch!

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:02 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

THAT doesn't look good. Time to buy some PM's......which just so happen to be on sale today.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:14 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Couldn't disagree more. In euro terms...fine. But this is as predictable an end to a currency union as can be humanly made. The "end" will be the same as well: law and order has already completely collapsed, a Novus Ordo Seclorum is what comes next.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:22 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

You are getting ahead of yourself.  I worked for them too you know.  Profits need to be generated in order to fund the transition you refer to.  That means only one thing, more war.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:27 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

You disagree that it doesn't look good, that I shouldn't buy PMs or that PMs aren't on sale? :>)

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:27 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

I just love it when it goes on sale ... the elites think they are smart hahahaha!

like a cocksucker called Soros who called that the gold bubble has "POPPED"

the Angel of death will pop his ass when he dies ....

"I dont wish death for no body except for those crooks"

 

 

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:18 | Link to Comment DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

"... that, in a nutshell, is what is happening in the World.

Everything else is merely noise..."

............................................................................

THIS WEEK

What a week it will be! Don't worry, it's coming! For Gold watchers... Watch Wednesday.

Dennis Gartman chimed in about last weeks massacre ... saying something nefarious could have taken place in one pompous breath, and of course poking fun at by talking down to and basically trashing Gold bugs as usual.

Can't argue with someone who doesn't understand the argument.

Hard money advocates, Gold bugs whom Mr. Gartman constantly makes fun of, have been correct for at least the last 40+ years. They have been right, and right for all the right reasons.

This past Wednesday, finally and very publicly put an end to conspiracy theorists being considered nuts.

As it turns out, anyone who towed the mainstream lines of investment logic since at least 1971 have been wrong. It has taken many decades for the proof to arrive. It finally has. No one can deny now that too much debt is the problem and has been the problem building for 40 years or more.

More debt cannot be the solution. Without unfairly pounding his royal pompousness with no chance to defend himself... Dennis feels easily threatened. Mr. Gartman needs to question whether or not Gold and Silver have been manipulated in price. He can no longer say "it doesn't matter, or I don't care" like Jeff Christian does.

It does matter.

You should care because it has, is, and will affect you, your children, your children's children and everyone else on the planet! So there it is. Treat Gold bugs with the respect that they deserve and have earned... despite his and other's constant ridicule.

Debate publicly... here on ZH would be a good start... or just STFU and go away!

Back to this week. China has become an aggressive seller of U.S. Treasuries. The ECB created another $700 Billion out of thin air while Greek one year paper traded near 1,000%. At the same time ISDA said that no default has occurred and now anyone who purchased CDS for protection is butt naked and sitting on unrecoverable losses. Make the mental leap forward ... backward... this insurance isn't and never was, insurance. It could not and cannot be paid out.

The money... the reserves, whatever the fuck they call it has never and can never exist.

What idiot would go to JP Morgan, Credit Suisse, AIG or whoever to insure their U.S. Treasury bonds? What paper financial entity on the planet will still be alive if the U.S. Treasury fails? Are we only talking about Greece right now? The European sovereign's and thus Germany and the ECB itself are coming soon, and then ultimately the U.S. Treasury.

Inside the system, the Rotting House, there is no place to hide.

There is no magical product or insurance or CB policy that has the ability to protect you. The only protection is to go outside... out of the paper system. The only insurance is in Gold and it's little sister Silver. The fact that global physical demand is much greater than actual supply ... has been for 40+ years. Volume and open interests on the paper markets are dropping as investors say 'no mas' and are leaving the rigged and rotten casino. Even though The Fed and ECB are flooding the markets with more and more liquidity, the tide is continuing to recede and naked insolvency’s everywhere are continuing to be exposed.

This week is important. We will get intuitive action. We will get some answers!

Now for sure central banks will provide liquidity to and beyond infinity. We now know that the rule of law is no longer.

The ISDA ruled that default isn't default.

If you own CDS... well... that's just too damn bad.

MF Global was thrown under the bus. A bus filled with Mafia thieves will land on 'free parking'.

No one will be prosecuted. This was the greatest Rot of all. The end of the road for fiat.

The rule of law is lost... exactly what is happening.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:36 | Link to Comment jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

The fact that global physical demand is much greater than actual supply ... has been for 40+ years.

*************

There are no supply problems-there is always enough gold in the world to meet demand-

The problem lies in the price of gold-

When gold holders/hoarders believe the current price is too low and that it will increase in the future-they will continue to hold/hoard it until their price expectations are met-

All gold is for sale at the right price-obviously-we're just not there yet-

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 16:41 | Link to Comment Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

I'm not holding it for price discovery. I'm holding it for value discovery. Everything is valued in gold, especially credit. Gold is undervalued by Modern Money Theorists. The true expanding-credit-believers and players with a book to sell may ridicule it. Me? I'll go with its 5000+ year track record over that ofDennis Gartman, Jeff Christian or the track record of paper IOUs. Credit default swap for insurance, anyone?

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 16:51 | Link to Comment jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

I'm not holding it for price discovery. I'm holding it for value discovery

**********

Yes-that's another way of looking at it-but gold is so far not a medium of exchange so-currency price/oz. vs whatever you care to exchange it for- is still an important measurement-

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 16:57 | Link to Comment dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

yeah; and ya' can't eat it

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 18:50 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I just want to mention a point of order; gold, in fact, is edible. It can be found on all manner of edible leaf and trim on valuable pastry and bon-bons. Anyone who has done window shopping in Geneva knows about the O-face women get there when doing so.

You know what I'm talking about.

Show her my O face! - YouTube

Federal Reserve Notes & Euros, on the other hand - full of toxins.

Carry on.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:51 | Link to Comment AL_SWEARENGEN
AL_SWEARENGEN's picture

A 'fiat event' would be followed by all the hoopleheads panicking.  Followed by confusion that turns into a weird instinctual like survival mode.  Which wont help most people because they've been dumbed down with sodium flouride, processed food, and a strong injection of daily propaganda.  So many will be unprepared for a sudden, monstrous paradigm shift.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 16:21 | Link to Comment DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

The Cocksuckers are just laughing into their hats as they herd the world into WWIII... which has already started.

The last word on Gold...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6p60gHuyu8

 

 

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 16:39 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

"No rule of law" exactly that is all that matters and until hunger overrules that fact nothing changes because it cannot.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 16:01 | Link to Comment Kayman
Kayman's picture

"It could not and cannot be paid out."

It shall not and will not be paid out.  Our claims adjuster is Ms. Helen Waite.  So go to Helen Waite.

Or, the english translation.  "Thank you for the premium, now that you have taken a loss, why don't you go fuck yourself."

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 16:53 | Link to Comment dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Kayman - you're a hoot, man!  Hootman!

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 16:04 | Link to Comment The Navigator
The Navigator's picture

Can I buy a CDS on my credit card debt and have ISDA rule that my default isn't a default to keep my high FICO?

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 16:52 | Link to Comment dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

...and don't forget, Don't argue with an idiot.  He will bring you down to his level and beat you with experience!

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 17:59 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

Dear 'DavidPierre',

You have written an excellent companion piece to one of ZHs best pieces of analysis to date, this article. My children and I fall into the category of 'widows and orphans'. When the banks went bust, I was hearing nonsense from Coutts and other financial advisers. I didn't know why, so I turned to internet to do my own research. I came across the story of gold and silver. Soon, I came across the writings of James Sinclair. His no-nonsense relentlessly rational yet empathetic explanation of the unregulated otc derivatives, QE to infinity etc has been my guiding light, particularly at times of violent market turbulence.

Most of my savings are in gold and silver. The money I needed to keep safe for my children's future is doubled, tripled; it retains purchasing power; it is our insurance policy and protection against the evils of deceitful men who would bankrupt any child or mother simply for their own greed.

Ben Bernanke and the Trilateral Commission: I am talking about you, and your cohorts in the globalist central bank cartel who manipulate every market for your psychotic aim of a 'New World Order', aided by your political pets, technocrats and corrupt bureaucracies. Your favoured agents like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgue are increasingly exposed on the internet. Jon Corzine ought to live in fear of his life, for his theft has angered some ruthless people who will most certainly get their revenge, sooner or later, imo.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:05 | Link to Comment Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

No one should be surprised that the chart shows both Italy and Spain have worse current account balances than Greece.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:16 | Link to Comment Hugo Chavez
Hugo Chavez's picture

Duh.

Greece was first to run out of OPM to buy imported stuff.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:06 | Link to Comment AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

Ouroboros.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:05 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Oil divergence with equity sell = danger.  

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:09 | Link to Comment gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

I remember an article here called "Can't we all just 'net' along?"  This article and that support eachother very nicely, are easy to understand, and deserve a wide readership.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:09 | Link to Comment Imminent Collapse
Imminent Collapse's picture

Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, did you enjoy the play?

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 18:46 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

+1

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:10 | Link to Comment Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

Holy crap

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:48 | Link to Comment noob
noob's picture

yes, holey crap.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:12 | Link to Comment Hugo Chavez
Hugo Chavez's picture

Cmon

Blow up already.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:12 | Link to Comment theFlyingDutchman
theFlyingDutchman's picture

Am I the only one who finds it ironic that more than 90 years after the Treaty of Versailles the tables have actually turned?

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:28 | Link to Comment TradingSIZE
TradingSIZE's picture

And Putin is back in power...Eastern Bloc is starting to get HOT, Warsaw Pact round 2 anyone?

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:29 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

90 years after Versailles and we're even worse people now.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:16 | Link to Comment Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Charts, bitchez!

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:16 | Link to Comment theFlyingDutchman
theFlyingDutchman's picture

Probably a newbie question, but how can France be a net lender while it's account balance is negative?

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 17:35 | Link to Comment iDealMeat
Tue, 03/06/2012 - 19:40 | Link to Comment donsluck
donsluck's picture

+1 for you. Good stuff!

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 18:23 | Link to Comment Broccoli
Broccoli's picture

Transferring domestic wealth to other sovereigns is my guess. But I don't have a PhD in economics so I am not qualified to be a central banker and should just trust TBTB.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:33 | Link to Comment goforgin
goforgin's picture

Let me sum up your argument for you:

Socialism is an Epic failure. It transfers wealth from the pockets of the productive to the unproductive until it runs out of money.

On the other hand credit based economic system has been a Fantastic success. It has been so successful that every few generations or so, the knowledge of its inner workings need to be erased from the collective conscientiousness so the Ponzi can be started yet again.  After 5,000 years, I think that some people would figure it out: DEBT and MONEY is nothing more than a game with all the money ending up in the pockets of the few.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:35 | Link to Comment kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

It has nothing to do with Socialism.... but your last paragraph is spot on.  I'm not pro-socialism, mind you (not really anti-socialism either... voluntarily)... but our problems begin and end with a credit/debt based monetary system.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 17:38 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

IMHO corruption is the bigger problem
Don't blame the substance for the addicts.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 12:34 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Right on; it wasn't the addicts who created the problem.....The drug dealers did.  Blaming the people on welfare, those who get single payer healthcare....that's what the neo-cons in chagre of these banks WANT you to do.  Because they'll use that excuse to distract all of us as they use our wealths to fund their system that doesn't even come CLOSE to socalism. 

Like on the street, the drug dealers often don't partake in the substance. 

As Biggie said in the "10 Crack Commandments" on #4:

"Never get High on Your Own Supply".

As as we are seeing with the LTROs in Europe, and the Monetizing of the Debt by Ben and the Fed in USA.....the dealers of currency are doing JUST that.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 19:42 | Link to Comment Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

Not at all, with the government being the largest employer, consumer, lender, borrower, landlord, tenant and parents to untold hordes of people has nothing to do with anything. They don't really control the means of productio0n and in so doing bankrupted most of the free world that is all imaginary.

So sorry but the problems begin and end with the governments being the largest economic entities in the world and the inability of the globe to support that.  Otherwise there would be no need to periodically inflate to marginalize future obligations that don't exist.

But thanks for playing.

 

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 10:34 | Link to Comment kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

You're wrong.  "Let me control the money, I care not who makes the laws".  Once you get your arms around this statement, you'll understand how the world really works.  You are focused on a symptom, not a cause.  

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:20 | Link to Comment Ted Baker
Ted Baker's picture

RUMOUR HAS IT:- GREECE HAS BEEN LYING SINCE DAY ONE - THE SMART GUYS ARE PREPARING FOR THE WORST AS THE THE DEAL IS BOUND TO FAIL AND GREECE WILL DEFAULT RATTLING MARKETS WORLDWIDE - FRIDAY WILL SEE THE OLD BLACK FRIDAY AND THE 2008 LEHMAN COLLAPSE STYLE AS LESS THAN 75% OF PARTICIPANTS WILL FAVOUR THE PROPOSED DEAL HENCE TRIGERRING THE CDS WHICH AT THE MOMENT ISDA HAS NOT CONFIRMED IN WRTTING THAT A DEFAULT WILL NOT TRIGGER THE CDSs...

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 16:12 | Link to Comment odatruf
odatruf's picture

As I understand it, the threshold is 66% participation in order for the "voluntary" swap for the written down bonds to move forward.  75% is a nice round target number, but 66% is the legal minimum.

Greece can move to trigger collective-action clauses (which were retroactively added to the bonds' conditions), forcing all private bondholders to participate in the haircut once they hit that 66%.

Anyone have a different take on the reality?

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 19:43 | Link to Comment donsluck
donsluck's picture

I believe there are three thresholds, depending on which country's law the bonds are written under. The thresholds are 66%, 75% and 100%.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:25 | Link to Comment casey13
casey13's picture

Eventually the masses will wake up to the fact that all government bonds are risky and will not be paid back in full with dollars of equal value. At that point the flow of funds from public to private assets will begin and a currency crises will be the result.   

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:27 | Link to Comment The Count
The Count's picture

Note: The masses rarely wake up. How elso can you explain that the FED, which is neither federal nor solely in the hands of US banks, is still in existence.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:28 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

Obama says its too complicated for us to understand and just trust him. If Romney is elected president, he'll tell us its too complicated for us to understand and just trust him.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:23 | Link to Comment dannyboy
dannyboy's picture

Solvency Bitchez.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:27 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

Not solvency Bitchez.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:28 | Link to Comment Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Double secret non-solvency, Bitchez

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 16:13 | Link to Comment odatruf
odatruf's picture

Fiat solvency!  And, um, youz are bitchez.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 20:27 | Link to Comment neidermeyer
neidermeyer's picture

Put Wormer on it.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:26 | Link to Comment toadold
toadold's picture

It is interesting that the fiat money isn't used much to invest in things that actually generate more money, manufacturing, infrastructire, and such, but goes to welfare payouts, saleries for regulators, and in general payouts for votes and such. So why the surprise that there is a shortage of jobs? Why the surprise that people are buying food with their credit cards? 
"It is a Black Swan" like heck, people have warning the day would come for at least the last 40 years.  

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:28 | Link to Comment Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Neither a BORROWER nor LENDER be....Polonius

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:42 | Link to Comment gloogle
gloogle's picture

I prefer the Gilligan's Island version:

 

"

Neither a borrower nor a lender be, Do not forget: Stay out of debt;
Think twice, and take this good advice from me,
Guard that old solvency.
There’s just one other thing you ought to do.
To thine own self be true."
Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:50 | Link to Comment marathonman
marathonman's picture

By paying income taxes that go to cover US debt payments, aren't we all (Americans) borrowers?

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 16:11 | Link to Comment Kayman
Kayman's picture

"paying income taxes that go to cover US debt payments"

Geez, that's so yesterday.  Modern economics conjures up debt, conjures up money and pays interest with more newly conjured up money.

So.... taxes are never wasted on paying interest. Look it up. Get with the program...

Now, I have to go to ride my Unicorn. Have a nice day.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:59 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

Polonius today would be a survivalist encamped with about 100 other survivalists who have all of the essential trades/crafts covered. He would be on the DHS watch-this-fucker-closely-and-blow-his-head-off-if-he-sneezes list. He would publish a newsletter whose sellers would meet the buyers in some dark abandoned shed in the Wyoming foothills. He would have German attack geese patrolling his garden at all times.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:34 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The Classical-Keynesian theory that it is in the best interest of a State to have a weak currency so to increase exports is a wash.  It is always in the best interest of a Nation-State to have a highly valued currency so to kep asset prices low and affordable for everyone in the given State.  In terms of growth, it is a matter of how productive the Stte is that will determine its competitiveness in the export market.

Germany would be much better to go back to the Mark standard.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:35 | Link to Comment BeetJuice
BeetJuice's picture

Having a too high valued currency is not good. It constrains the ability of government to provide goods and services to the unemployed and economically suffering. That is the point of currency flexibility, besides strong exports.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 16:01 | Link to Comment riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture

if you arent a milliondollarbonus knock of then..
A strong currency expands the ability of people to donate to worthy causes. Governments are inefficient distributors of charity. They are very efficient at galas and swares though. So it would be bad for flights to davos, UN memberships, and other arrogant and disgusting uses of other peoples money.

The US gave baziliions in private donations to earthquake relief in Haiti,thailand and pakistan. See how much we will be giving when we have a weak dollar.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 17:12 | Link to Comment BeetJuice
BeetJuice's picture

The private market can susbtitute for programs like social security and medicare, and unemployment insurance? I don't think so. People would face a collective action problem, to provide for the needy in those cases. There would not be enough charity. The other problem with relying on private charity is that it makes you dependent on something you have no control over. With government, at least you have rights and you have a vote, you are receiving the money as a member of the political system, of the nation. Your 'charity' is governed by rules and laws that you have some confidence will be equally applied. If you are taking handouts from a private rich person, you have no rights or safety and are completely subject to that person's whims.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 17:56 | Link to Comment riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture

"The private market can susbtitute for programs like social security and medicare, and unemployment insurance? "

Of course the private market can. There is absolutely no reason they cannot. There are thousands and thousands of man hours volunteered every year by doctors. Trust funds can earn gobs of money in perputuity. Despite your misanthropic attitude most people do not like nor want to see anyone suffer during an emergency. The key phrase being an emergency, not a life of unproductive, life destroying action.
 

If you mean equally applied so that sex offenders, child abusers, cheats, thiefs and miscreants all have access then no I do not believe this would happen at close to the extent it does under a government system.

You are getting charity you shouldn't have control over it, its other people's money/time. You should be thankful it is available. With that said look at the vast majority of philanthropists and you will see very little discrimination based on race, relgious affiliation or any other non character based trait.

 


Tue, 03/06/2012 - 19:51 | Link to Comment donsluck
donsluck's picture

I believe you are dillusional. Recent research suggests that as you get richer, you get LESS concerned with others. There are exceptions of course, but overall that's the way humans are wired. Think of it this way, charity and empathy are important if you rely on others for survival, which is the historical human condition. But if you don't need others any more (being rich) your empathy starts to fade. Those with less empathy are more likely to be rich and reproduce. Over time the rich get less and less empathic.

The reason for the creation of government are two fold. To prevent the poor from stealing from the rich, and to persue projects which benefit society at large like roads, self defence and unemployment insurance. It all gets muddled up in the details, of course.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 18:25 | Link to Comment r00t61
r00t61's picture

In case you haven't noticed, your rights and safety already got taken away by NDAA, you foolish child.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 20:18 | Link to Comment BooMushroom
BooMushroom's picture

The other problem with relying on private charity is that it makes you dependent on something you have no control over. With government, at least you have rights

Tell that to the Obama administration, the DOJ, GM bond holders, the members of the Catholic Church, and the people in Waco TX Ruby Ridge.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 01:55 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

You have the right to protect your own life, liberty, and justly acquired
property from the forceful aggression of others.  So you may rightfully ask others to help protect you.  But you do NOT have a right to initiate force against the life, liberty, or property of others.  Thus, you have NO right to designate some person to initiate force against others on your behalf.

You cannot give Govt. Officials any rights that you do not have yourself.

Virtue can only exist when there is FREE choice.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 18:45 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

If the EU manages to stay together for a wee bit longer (i.e. 2 to 4 years), it will inevitably be so because German PTB will have already steadfastly decided, for whatever ulterior motives they are operating from, to give the German citizenry what the Brits would call a jolly good rogering up the ass.

Once said rogering begins in earnest, shit gets real, yo.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:32 | Link to Comment Peter K
Peter K's picture

EXACLTY, OLE BOY:)

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:33 | Link to Comment BeetJuice
BeetJuice's picture

Time for Europe to move towards a true monetary and / or fiscal union. That is the heart of the issue. This post gets to the heart of the financial issue but the real issue is political: does Europe want a true monetary and / or union, which will necessarily involve some indefinite cross-country transfers, or do they want to each go their own separate way, in which case they must plan to break up the euro zone in a stable, and safe way without causing a Depression? One of these two paths must be followed.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:58 | Link to Comment marathonman
marathonman's picture

There is no benefit to Europeans to have a true union.  The euro was a trap.  A bait and switch.  All those nations can see that now Greece's assets are being stripped to pay French, German, and American bankers.  What about that exactly is in the interest of Slovenians, Latvians, Estonians, or anyone else?  They should all go their own way.  Or bow down and continue to pay the bankers to @$$ rape them.  Its time to stop the insanity.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 17:08 | Link to Comment BeetJuice
BeetJuice's picture

Greece's assets would not have to be stripped away if it were in a true union. In such a case, Greece would not even be in a crisis. The root of the problem is the currency union, and root of that problem is a political choice that must be made.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 01:59 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

The problem with socialism is socialism, because there are no socialists.  Socialism is a system based upon an assumption about human nature that simply isn't true.  I can design a perfect canine community in which dogs never chase squirrels or groom their nether regions in an indelicate manner.  But the moment I take that idea from the drawing board to the real world, I will discover that I cannot get dogs to behave against their nature--at least not without inflicting a terrible amount of punishment. Likewise, it's easy to design a society that rewards each according to his need instead of his ability.  The hard part is getting the crooked timber of humanity to yield to your vision.

And it's also why the problem with capitalism is capitalists.  Some people will always abuse the system and take things too far.  Some will do it out of the hubris of intellect.  Some will do it out of the venality of greed.

I bring all of this up because many in Washington seem convinced that the solution to the problem with capitalists is always less capitalism.  To be sure, a free-market society is in some sense a government program.  The government must prosecute criminality, enforce contracts, and demand that the rules be observed.  Few lovers of free markets are so laissez-faire as to want to strip the government of its role as REFEREE.  But few should want the REFEREE to suit up and play the game.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 19:12 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Any time there's someone proposing a "really good plan" that involves abandoning control over your nation's ability to control its currency...

 

....Yeah, bad idea ab initio, bitchez.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 17:11 | Link to Comment obejoyful
obejoyful's picture

Are you insane?  These guys have been fighting for thousands of years and the EU was a huge mistake.  And you want to go even further. 

You must be a keysian were there is not such thing as to much debt.  You have a debt problem, that is OK, just add more debt and that will stop the problem.  You have a problem with herion that is OK due more herion and you will feel better.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:39 | Link to Comment EcoFlow
EcoFlow's picture

Would be cool to see the same for the US states.

 

The cumulative curve would probably decrease till -$1000

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 16:35 | Link to Comment dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

I believe I've seen something close to this for the states.  Interestingly, the Right-to-Work states all fall on the upside of the median and the labor states are in the pits.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:39 | Link to Comment Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Der Spiegel had a story today about German economist Hans-Werner Sin, who has been warning about this for over a year.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,818966,00.html

 

The Hundred-Billion-Euro Bomb

 

Euro-Zone Central Bank System Massively Imbalanced

 

 

 

"In the beginning, all I had was this number, and I didn't really know what it meant," says Sinn, who is president of the Munich-based Ifo Institute for Economic Research. "The Bundesbank told me those were irrelevant balances. But that didn't reassure me."

 

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 16:05 | Link to Comment Rynak
Rynak's picture

Looks, it's this simple:

- Pusher Nation firesells it's population productivity to multinational corps.

- But whom to sell to, if you pulled all the multinationals away from any potential buyer?

- Oh, i know, lets PAY THEM to buy from the multinationals we attracted

 

Take this money from me, and buy my wares, or else!

And this then is supposed to be good for nation X, and bad for nation Y.... as opposed to the multinationals who get sponsored on the production side AND the sales side.... and as opposed to banks lending all that cash and then demanding ownership of entire nations........

....no, really, it is in "nation Xyz's best interest for this to continue"..... totally! Do you want to get rich, by giving goods away for free? Or maybe getting rich by destroying your own industry and buying everything on credit? The choice is yours!

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 16:20 | Link to Comment dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

The German work ethic rises like cream to the top.  US does the same - Japanese, Chinese, a few others.  It's not a surprise that they 'out-perform' their neighbors.  It's just what they do.  Unfortunately, this Euro crap has the whole hood in a pickle.  It would have been better to stay with individual soverign currencies.  They should flush the Euro as a bad idea gone haywire and go back to their old national currencies.  At least they'll have a chance.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 17:14 | Link to Comment Q.E.easy
Q.E.easy's picture

The U.S. has something rising to the top. But it ain't cream.

The U.S "out-performs" by inventing whatever statistics they need.

China uses similar tactics, but at least they still produce something other then bullshit.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 18:24 | Link to Comment Rynak
Rynak's picture

Even if we accept the common myth of the "X nation's work ethics" (where "work ethics" simply means: Be very "flexible" regarding the conditions for at you will sell your work (read: be a whore))..... shouldn't exceptional work performance and quality be "rewarded" by an actual increase in living standard and economic reliability of said workforce?

Has that happened to the supposed "pusher nations", led by germany? Or has this supposed "victory" and "superiority" gone parallel to the OPPOSITE happening?

Your average german now:

- in real terms earns a fraction of 10 years ago

- it's gov in real terms is now spending MORE to compensate people earning less than to sustain themselves

- it's gov is spending multiple times more, to "sponsor" exporters located in the country, as well as other nations, so that they can buy those exports with money lended by germany.... how the hell is giving others the capital to buy own goods a "profit"?

- it's social services in real terms have been axed to a fraction of what they were 10 years ago

- As a result of the export/import war, the domestic market (mainly, middle-class), has been turned into a wasteland... germany not just "accepted" foreign investment... they were willing to trade their domestic market for it... which is to say: they have traded most of their remaining self-sustainability, for non-selfsustainability

AND what about those importers, who supposedly have it "so good" by living on the bill of germany?

- They have lost most of the production capabilities remaining.

- They too have pretty much lost their domestic market, by focussing instead on imports

- They have at least on paper sold out their public capital to the banks from whom they borrowed all that credit to import.

Is that #winning? For germany? For the periphery? For ANYONE except of those now driving the claims (credit) home? For ANYONE who produced AND sold in the same nation?

Two words: Global ponzi. Nations got nothing to do with it.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:51 | Link to Comment rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Spy 10' in bear flag formation but volume has dropped. Another 1 day wonder? We'll see.  I'm curiouse when the FED buy program kicks in, I think volume has dropped enough for it to start fucking the shorts.  I'm as bearish as anyone here im just sayin lol.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:54 | Link to Comment riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture

"how it is clearly in Germany's best interest to perpetuate a common currency, which prevents its legacy currency, the DEM from soaring, and thus crippling intraunion current account flows that benefit Germany."

Clearly benefits some people in Germany. Bankers, crony-industrialists and politicians. In no way does it benefit the saver who would have the world to buy more from with a stronger mark. They are being destroyed. 

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 15:57 | Link to Comment Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

ZH loves gold when gold goes up and ignores gold when gold goes down. That is a bit disingenuous me think.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 16:24 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

A healthy dip, and a buying opportunity.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 16:25 | Link to Comment Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Please tell us how many articles there have been today with the word "gold" in the headline. We can wait. And while doing that, please tell us how many article have been posted saying that gold very well may drop (or collapse following Paulson's advice to buy), but once QE3 comes, which it will, will send gold over $2000. Frankly at this point the narrative is just getting old and most readers seem to be quite aware of what is going on.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 19:53 | Link to Comment Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

Maybe, maybe not.

Nice the herd finally picked up on everything rises and falls with QE,

but of course they didn't really because QE3 means the same thing or we playing the game, somehow it is baked into equities and bonds but not commodities?

 

 

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 17:33 | Link to Comment AC_Doctor
AC_Doctor's picture

Bastiat009: "ZH loves gold when gold goes up and ignores gold when gold goes down. That is a bit disingenuous me think"

PWNED, you gold hating heathen!

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 16:07 | Link to Comment P229R
P229R's picture

All they have to do is vaporize the debt...problem solved!

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 16:15 | Link to Comment dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

...sounds alot like the Fed and the US Govt...

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 16:23 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Wow, look at Spain!

Ouch!

 

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 18:31 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

ebworthen,

Sarkozy ran away from a small town of Basque people in France. Over the border in Spain, the Basque in the vast region of Espagne Verde have ETA to rely on if the central government ruins the people for the sake of bailing out banksters. Some reports say that Sinn Fein are extremely unhappy with Ireland's fate at the moment, and oppose the EU/euro debt slave master 'final solution'.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 13:23 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

I hear you.

We are all under the shadow of the Central Banksters "final solution" at the moment.

Nothing defines the hegemony of the kleptoligarchy quite like austerity for families concomitant with bailouts for banks and corporations.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 16:33 | Link to Comment bobola
bobola's picture

The Bernanke fix;

"..There is a rift among top-ranking officials at the ECB, and it also extends between the majority of the ECB's Governing Council and the Bundesbank. First, two leading German ECB officials -- chief economist Jürgen Stark and Bundesbank President Axel Weber -- resigned because the monetary authority was buying up sovereign bonds from Greece and Portugal. Then Weber's successor Weidmann objected to the ECB's purchase of government bonds from heavily indebted Italy.

Now, Weidmann is rebelling against the manner in which Draghi is giving European banks one new cash injection after another. Although Weidmann admits that the measures are basically correct, their conditions are "very generous," he complains -- and expresses his total opposition to this policy in the jargon of the central bankers: "This can particularly become a problem if banks are discouraged from taking action to restructure their balance sheets and strengthen their capital base..."

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,819255,00.html

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 16:54 | Link to Comment Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

"That which is above is the same as that which is below"

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 02:07 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Does Quantum Physics describe reality, or the limits of Human neuro-systems?

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 16:59 | Link to Comment rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Well there was your 2012 correction. LMAO.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 17:17 | Link to Comment SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Thank you for your brilliant, easy to understand, charts Tyler! Even a silly salesman comprehends once in a while....   ;)

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 17:30 | Link to Comment ATG
ATG's picture

All these bailouts are but more opportunities for personal bankster embezzlement.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 17:31 | Link to Comment The Heart
The Heart's picture

This is off the subject at hand.

We must support alternative news networks that tell us the real truth. Today, Republic Broadcasting is doing a pledge drive and they really need your support.

At this time right now, Bob Chapman is on and will be for the next 2.5 hours. Listen in to what is being said in the background here as we work up to tonight's results. Donate to the pledge drive if you can. This is about the best network for truth without all the banter and fearism.

http://republicbroadcasting.org/?p=18849

Listen now:

http://republicbroadcasting.org/?page_id=3

Please everyone, do what you can to support and listen to Republic Broadcasting Network.

***

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 17:33 | Link to Comment Gamma735
Gamma735's picture

You can not keep a boat bailed out it the buckets we are using have large holes in them.  The world ecomony is the Titanic.    Our boat will sink.  It is only a matter of time.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 18:08 | Link to Comment PLove
PLove's picture

Hjalmar Schacht, the currency commissioner for the Weimar Republic, reveals what really killed the Weimar Republic

 

” What actually drove the wartime inflation into hyperinflation, said Schacht, was speculation by foreign investors, who would bet on the mark’s decreasing value by selling it short."

 

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?aid=13673&context=va

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 02:08 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Adding more zeroes to ReichMarks should have told him something about excessive printing...

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 18:35 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

mario draghi is becoming the most loved man in the FED. 

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 18:40 | Link to Comment Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

The NY Fed and the ECB are both run by Goldman alumni.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 19:48 | Link to Comment supafuckinmingster
supafuckinmingster's picture

"The NY Fed and the ECB are both run by Goldman alumni."

 

Ann to that The Treasury Department, Greece and Italy...for now.......more to come.

Sun, 03/11/2012 - 18:36 | Link to Comment Rynak
Rynak's picture

More than that already:

Independent article - Goldman Sachs conquers Europe:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/what-pr...

And that article was from november, and thus doesn't include the recent developments.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 18:58 | Link to Comment Die Weiße Rose
Die Weiße Rose's picture

The Hundred-Billion-Euro Bomb 

 

Since the 2007 financial crisis, immense imbalances have formed within the otherwise harmless payment system that exists between the central banks of the 17 euro-zone member states. While Italy, Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Greece, all hit hard by the debt crisis, show deficits totaling over €600 billion, the claims owed the Bundesbank have climbed to €498 billion.

Euro-Zone Central Bank System Massively Imbalanced (Der Spiegel 03/06/2012) http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,818966,00.html posted by wr;)
Tue, 03/06/2012 - 19:08 | Link to Comment AC_Doctor
AC_Doctor's picture

The shitstorm starts rolling on Thurdsay with Greek bond holders saying fuck you to the PSI...

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 02:09 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Tune in for the latest installment of "As the Fiat Churns!"

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 03:47 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

this is what i meant when i said that angela had been beaten like a rented mule by the banksters

i pointed this just b4 german fifniMini wolfgangS proudly boasted that the german parliament  would follow its leadership and pass the greek bailout

this vote took place on feb 27, which was a week ago, yesterday [monday, 3.5.12] and seems like 100 years ago...  it was 2 daze b4 the LTR0 that the blunderburghers proved him correct by what i considered a freaking landslide!

we change the clocks forward next weekend too, according to what some homeless guy told me this morning...

perhaps target2 has not been prominently featured in the MSM in germany...?

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 07:51 | Link to Comment snowman
snowman's picture

There are serious problems with the article's analysis.

Germany's exports to the Eurozone is about 1/3rd of their exports, and therefore the positive CA balance is largely outside the Euro. The biggest growth

of their exports has been outside the eurozone, and outside the EU.

Spain, as the "biggest" CA deficit only uses the eurozone for about 40% of their imports. Again, reliance on "Euro" closed looped finding is not true.

 

One you normalize the data for CA impact between eurozone members, the premise that "Target2 funding" and Germany living off the CA deficits of other countries falls apart.

Also, look at the EUR vs USD and GBP and tell me why, with an historical high value EUR Germany seems to be able to have a positive CA balance? Again, poor analysis.

 

 

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 08:00 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

 

 

But what happened to the notions;

2010: If Irish Govt Bonds >6.5% it's all over for the Banks and Euro

2011: If Spanish Govt Bonds >6.5% it's all over for the Banks and Euro

2012: If Italian Govt Bonds >6.5% it's all over for the Banks and Euro

The banks get bailed out ... absolutely nothing gets fixed ... austerity deepens ... recession heaps on recession ... interest is totally unpayable longer term ... unemployment rises ... credit declines ... housing in the poo ... CRE slitting wrist ... competitiveness getting even worse! ... money printed ... ECB buys sub-worthless crap ... press conference Sunday night ... no wuckin' furies bitchez!!!

How much can a koala bear ?

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