Explaining How The Just Announced ECB Market Rescue Pledged 133% Of German GDP To Cover All Of Europe's Bad Debt

Tyler Durden's picture

Two weeks after Zero Hedge readers were informed about it, slowly the sell side is coming to the realization that not only will the EFSF have to be expanded (that much was known), but that Germany, and specifically the outright economy, will be on the hook by an unprecedented amount of money. And expanded it will have to be: not by two, not by three, but by a cool four times, to a unbelievable €3.5 trillion which according to Daiwa's Head of Economic Research, Grant Lewis, is an act which will be necessary to convince financial markets of euro area resolve to save Italy and Spain. Says Lewis: "France, Germany contribution to EFSF’s capital would increase to 80% if Spain, Italy had to drop out of guarantee structure.  France, German contingent liabilities would be > 50% of GDP if EFSF expanded; added to France, Germany current debt may trigger downgrades to both countries." Yes... and no. As we explained when we referred to a far more accurate and complete report by Bernstein, merely a €1.5 trillion expansion in the EFSF, would mean that Germany is on the hook to the tune of €790 billion or 32% of German GDP. If France is downgraded, Germany essentially becomes the sole backstopper of the entire Eurozone, to the tune of €1.4 trillion or 56% of its GDP. Now let's assume Daiwa is correct, and the full amount under the EFSF has to increase to €3.5 trillion. That means that Germany "contin[g]ent liabilities", in the worst case scenario where France again gets downgraded, and it likely will eventually, would surge to about €3.3 trillion, or an insane 133% of German GDP!

Now let's put today's events in perspective.

Basically what just happened an hour ago, is that the ECB gave a green light to use the SMP program to buy Italian and Spanish bonds: the two countries which recently put themselves into a self-imposed capital markets exile as we reported earlier. The problem is that the SMP's unsterilized purchasing capacity is de-minimis and it is merely a stopgap until the sterilized EFSF is enacted in its final form. The question is precisely what this final form will be: will it be €1.5 or €3.5 trillion. Nobody knows yet which is why Rehn refused to answer the question twice already today.

Either way, let's assume EFSF gets clearance. At that point the SMP gets deactivated, and EFSF takes over.

And here is where Germans get angry, because explicitly they end up backstopping everyone in europe! And the cost to them becomes 133% of their entire economy in a worst case scenario, which of course in this centrally planned world, is now guaranteed.

So the ball is now basically in Germany's court: will the German export sector be ok with leaving the country on the hook to a complete implosion once the final European house of cards implodes, or, will German practically once again take over, and tell the ECB, the bureaucrats and every other insolvent European country to go shove it, in the process bringing back the D-Mark and returning to a life of quiet contentment without a customs, cultural or monetary union.

Oddly enough, our money is on the latter.

PS. In the meantime, short Bunds (or to borrow a Gartmanism, go long gold in Bund terms) ahead of the market's realization that peak risk transfer from the periphery to the core is now in process.

PPS. A fully funded EFSF will need to issue €3.5 trillion, or $5 trillion in debt. Repeat: $5 TRILLION.

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optimator's picture

and with reunification came Angela M. from behind that wall.

Eagle Keeper's picture

This will only be a temporary fix since the structural problems haven't and won't change....

Good for about 3 months.....

Doyle Hargraves's picture

Just as I said earlier how long are the producers in Germany going to subsidize the rest of Europe's lifestyles? Germany is the EU's GDP, If they don't tell the ECB to fuck off then they are truly a bunch of little bitchez and deserve the raping that they get!

Gnurant's picture

It's not exactly as you all say, there is a two big issues. One, EU is now internal market for Germany and the producers here had their gains in the last years. Two, linked with the first one, the other producers have been fu**ed from this change in competition scenario. Germans had to take the debit on their shoulders years ago, not now.

We will see, I'm italian and I live in Germany... pretty interesting times at the moment here...

Gnurant's picture

and, by the way, if you want to laugh a bit, take a look here, now: http://tg24.sky.it/tg24/diretta.html

Berlusconi and Tremonti in conferece (if you know italian, but for laughing at Berlusconi the language is not so important)

Doyle Hargraves's picture

I knew a Sicilian guy who ran a place in when I lived in Germany, he worked hard, spoke 4 or 5 languages, he and his family got up every day at the break of dawn made fresh pasta, ice cream, and other stuff from scratch. Used to love eating there his hard work was reflected in the quality of food. Had the best Tiramisu I have ever had, period. Anyways a bit off topic I just wondered what would make an Italian leave Italy for Germany?

Gnurant's picture

Easy, a job. Sorry, a "good" job. In Italy you can not find a permanent contract now. I'm working as manager in green tech market: Germany (left aside the € situtation) is investing a lot of money in it. Italy is investing money in nothing at all. Consumer spending is going good here, Italy is stuck. And living here (Munich) is not so different as in Italy: I'm driving back home just for my job or for holidays.

Going back to the topic: it is basically difficult for anyone to understand who is fooling whom. Germans don't want to save anyone, Italians thinks they are going to be fucked by Germans. The point is, democracy is based on what I call "electoralism": no one has the power to change things and we wait, we wait, we wait till... boom! 

Doyle Hargraves's picture

This guy owned his place outright. It was in Bad Windsheim. Italy/Greece/Spain/Portugal seem to have a lot of benefits to pay out but little investment to speak of. It was the same when I lived in Germany. My thoughts then were the euro will never work, I left before it was implemnted (the end of 1998). Munich wasn't that far went a few times. "Electoralism" has seem to lead to compromise and compromise is a shit sandwich no one party involved wants to eat let alone the 6-7 parties? Germany has in the Bundestag, shit needs to break permanantly so the only option left is the honest option and all bullshit goes out the window. My thoughts are at this point,(though I am not on the ground there), The EU needs Germany more than Germany needs the EU. Of course should Germany leave the euro I am sure there will be hell to pay with the other EU nations as far as payback in the guise of huge export tariffs levied on German products as well as a restriction on free movement, but I think Germany exports enough worldwide to overcome those obstacles very easily. Of course if Germany leaves all the euro nations will think Germany has fucked them even though they would only be acting in self preservation.

walküre's picture

Mein lieber italienischer Freund.. let the past be the past. We have a long history and many traditions and cultural aspects that connect us deeply.

The common denominator of our frustration is Wall Street and the pirates who live there. They fucked us before and they will fuck us again. Make no mistake. Long time has passed but to pretend all that happened, has happened for no particular reason and was all just made up bullshit fantasy is wrong.

THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Mad sheer madness - I was really expecting them to print or electronically create new euros to the tune of 1 to 2 trillion......

Its hard not to escape the conclusion they don't have the Gold they say they have.

machineh's picture

'Our money is on the latter.'

Same here. Germany is not going to commit fiscal suicide to save the euro.

The euro's fate was always a question of whether Greece or Germany would leave first.

Now we know: Germany will have to pull the plug on this insane upping of the ante, and face the wrath of the PIIGS swine herd for having 'destroyed Europe' with its D-mark Blitzkrieg.

Watch for rioters in the streets of Berlin to force the political issue. D-marks by Christmas!


hedgeless_horseman's picture

Watch for rioters in the streets of Berlin...

October 2 will likely be the wurst of the German rioting...


scratch_and_sniff's picture

hits from the bong, all night long.

fuu's picture

They're going to need bigger guns. Lots of bigger guns.

PY-129-20's picture

As a German I could not resist to...laugh. Great picture hedge. But they are Bavarians and as a proud Prussian I will proudly wear a Pickelhaube while I am driving that Panther Panzer right into the ECB building in Frankfurt.

Pickelhaube + mustache


slaughterer's picture

Die haben das Gold.  Mann kann darüber sicher sein. 

TradingJoe's picture

Wer? Die Deutschen? Die Amis? Wage zu bezweifeln! Und wenn, es ist sicher bereits X mal weiterverpfaendet!

youngman's picture

And these numbers are at todays GDP for Germany...if all of their trading partners are going broke..they are not going to be buying more German exports...in fact they will buy less....so Germanys GDP drops......what kind of crap is this.....isn´t there an adult in the room???? Guess not...

TradingJoe's picture

Germans will not take this as easily as it is here portraited! Get ready for another round of selling! After the conference!

Azannoth's picture

"Oddly enough, our money is on the latter" I wish I could be this optimistic, but I have yet to see 1 single protests/demonstration in Germany against this, and even if/when people here fully realize how badly they got screwed it will be most likely too late

alien-IQ's picture

Are you suggesting that the citizens of Germany will not be happy about this?

What can possibly go wrong?

And lastly, do you think youtube will allow posting of videos of people lynching European politicians and bankers?...Or would that be frowned upon?

SheepDog-One's picture

Wow hard to believe the DOW was just down -300 points only an hour ago, and now up +100 now that Germany has been designated as rescuer of all of Europe, all is obviously well what could go wrong here?

jus_lite_reading's picture

Its up on Goldman saying QE3 is coming next week... of course if Goldman says it then heaven answers back YES SIR!! and so the serfs are served $10 gas and $20 bread to pay for bonuses and corruption until the whole shit blows the fuck up and everyone ends up in a MadMax world. IT didnt have to be this way... none of us wanted it that way but its past the point of no return.. my advice is get your money out of banks and buy gold and supplies and just wait it out... patience grasshopper!

Missiondweller's picture

You may recall we had similar swings in the market in 2007 leading up to the 2008 crisis.

Jonas Parker's picture

There were also similar (percentage-wise) swings in the markets in August of  1929.

John McCloy's picture

  Is it really that hard to believe Sheep at this point? We knew some rumor or printing was going to occur today...we have seen this many times before and will many times ahead. Football is starting soon and Jersey Shore Italy just kicked off so all is well the zombies are well medicated.

I Got Worms's picture

I was talking to my brother yesterday in the middle of the market puking its guts out. (I have nothing in the market, am 100% physical gold and silver, and rent my home, so I am just watching it implode in amazement/for entertainment. My brother on the other hand, has pretty sizeable investments tied up in the markets, which are 100% handled by some dude that was in his college fraternity. He makes pirate jokes about my gold, etc.)  Anyways, I'm talking to him and am like, "are you seeing this shit? Have you had a talk with your acct manager about what he's got you in, how its performing, and what he thinks you should be doing in all this turmoil?" Blank stare on his face for a moment, followed by, "yeah, I should probably give him a call sometime and see how things are going." Blank stare disappears, followed by, "But dude, did you see that the Aggies are ranked No. 9 in the Coaches' Poll?? It's fucking Miller Time!!"

Full disclosure: I watched the premiere of Jersey Shore last night.

John McCloy's picture

 This is going to end in war. It is unavoidable and Russia and China look on with a chuckle knowing that everyone of our nations will follow them down the path of collapse just a little more delayed. So all a nation in the Eurozone needs to do now is cancel their auctions and watch the magical ECB printing press do their heavy lifting.


hedgeless_horseman's picture

Europe is going to grow itself out of this mess? 

Demographics would indicate going long burqas and fufu!

Rodent Freikorps's picture

Liberals, gays and feminists hardest hit.

Who says there is no poetic justice left in the world?

Last year Greece had more abortions than live births.

Seems...unsustainable, with a modern welfare state.

MsCreant's picture

I don't have a vested interest in this stat one way or the other but I looked it up. Greece has a staggering number of abortions, but they do not have more abortions than live births, as near as I can tell. Do you have a link to share? I can get too literal with googling terms and miss things, but I think you are wrong on this.

  • Found an article that says Greece has the highest rate of abortions in Europe.
  • Found an article that says China has more abortions than the population of Greece.
  • Found an article that says Greece has 250,000 abortions a year, 40,000 of which are girls under 16.
Rodent Freikorps's picture

I tried. Fucking website keeps kicking me out. Russia and Viet Nam are easy find. Plus:


The six omitted countries include Austria, Greece and Taiwan, whose data cover only services provided in public facilities and thus represent a small, atypical fraction of women having abortions. In addition, we were unable to obtain recent information for Bosnia or North Korea. No data were available for Cambodia, which liberalized its law late in 1997.

Did you know a fetus has a heartbeat at around 4-5 weeks?

RockyRacoon's picture

Odd how one sentence can put a comment right in its little pigeon-hole:

Did you know a fetus has a heartbeat at around 4-5 weeks?

I'll assume that that non sequitur was to wrench a twang out of some heart strings.  Thus cementing your position.   You realize that any "facts" that you may come up with hereafter will be suspect.

KeyserSoze's picture

China is the factory of the world and produces nearly everything you could imagine under the sun. This is why they can quite easily survive a collapse and restructuring of the world economy. They are THE manufacturers. Russia has vast oil and gas deposits.

What exactly has the West got? Government owned fertile land.... everything else is either overvalued or overpriced in the west for it to be of any competitive value against the world. Apple inc isn't big enough on its own to hold the US together.

hedgeless_horseman's picture



What exactly has the West got?

 Excuse me while I whip out this misnomer: http://www.defense.gov/

Doyle Hargraves's picture

The reserve currency and the ability to sit at the head of the world debt table backed by 12 Army Divisions, 12 Carrier Groups and a ton of nukes in case the oil to run the war machine that keeps the dollars flowing offshore runs out.

Rodent Freikorps's picture

The US has massive natural resources and massive amounts of ag land.

Any total war scenario will have the .gov firirng the economy killing agencies like EPA, OSHA, DOE and we might even be able to finally get rid of bureaucracies like the tea board.

I figure they'll keep the Dept. of Education in its traditional propaganda duties.

Founders Keeper's picture

China's problem will be food.  China's biggest problem is China.

I don't see China as a player in WWIII; China will be preoccupied with internal strife.


RockyRacoon's picture

Oh, come now.   The Chinese are very good sloganeers.   They can come up with some great caricatures for some anti-American posters to plaster on all the vacant apartment buildings.   We came up with some pretty good ones ourselves for the "Krauts" and the "Japs".   And that was just the tip of the patriotic frenzy.

carbonmutant's picture

First off this market is rallying off an ECB press release.

Second Berlusconi has to commit Italy to a new austerity program before the intervention kicks in...

Good luck with that.

SheepDog-One's picture

US market total euphoria based upon an impossible rumor....it works as long as Germany shoulders bankrupt Europe by itself, and assuming the German people just say 'OK whatever no problem'? Ridiculous.

Azannoth's picture

1st you are underestimating German people's resilience, they had it too good for too long, they need to feel some personal pain before they object to anything

2nd the German politics is split in 2 camps, the International(European) Socialists and National Socialists so there are realy no 'good' options to choose from

This situation will not be resolved in the next few months, maybe in the next few years culminating in a Big War likely

Yes things are going downhill fast but a new round for QE3, QE4 and QE5 can delay the innevitable for a few years and only after hyperinflation kicks in will the people know what game are they being played as pawns

DonnieD's picture

This announcement was coordinated by Geithner to stop another flash crash. It will be revoked next week as no one can fund it and the Italians won't accept the terms.

lieutenantjohnchard's picture

on cattle drives in the 1800's cowboys would sing to the cattle to keep them calm, and thus avoid a stampede. nowadays, it's cnbc anchors(ettes) that sing to the hoi poloi to avoid a selling stampede. didn't work always on the drives. didn't work this time in the market either.

i'm an old cowhand from the rio grande ....

-Michelle-'s picture

Yippee ki yi yo, get along little dogies. It's your misfortune and none of my own...

Rodent Freikorps's picture

That is so 19th centurty.

These days it is, "Yippie kai yay, Mother Fucker."

moonstears's picture

I have two notes from 1923 equal to 2,100,000 Marks...Please, please, please Germany make these legal tender again(par with Euro, of course..they are RARE notes, most burned instead of firewood)!!! Weiner Schnitzel, bitchez! 

anonnn's picture

What if Germans, Russians, et al rediscovered common interests and natural trading partnerships?