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Explaining Today's Silver Surge
A few days ago, Eric Sprott decided to take advantage of the record premium over NAV of his physical silver fund PSLV (or for some other arbitrary reason) and to issue a $300MM follow-on offering, whose proceeds would be used to buy up silver to add to PSLV's existing physical holdings. Naturally, as soon as the news broke, the premium dropped to about 10%, making PSLV holders unhappy. This is not the first time that Sprott has done this: as a reminder after his April 2011 follow on offering in PHYS, we were fully expecting a comparable physical sequestration to occur via PSLV, to wit: "It appears to have already had an impact on silver, which jumped by $20 cents to another 31 year high on the news, as the market now likely expects a follow on offering in PSLV as well imminently." About 10 months later, it finally happened. As was to be expected, any short-term gains focused investors obviously became angry that by collapsing the premium, which we speculated was shortage driven, they have suffered a hit to their P&L (expressed in dollars of course, which as a reminder to the holders, should be largely irrelevant, especially to those who believe a PM-based barter system is imminent). Yet they forget the flip side to the equation: the money taken out of the premium, would be promptly used to take silver out of (hyper hypothecated) circulation, in other words, in the closed system, the drop in Premium would translate in a rising price in the underlying. Which according to UBS is precisely what has happened, and why silver moved as much as it did. Quoting from FMX Connect: "Today’s incredible move was the culmination of a comment made by UBS analyst Edel Tully. He stated that hedge fund manager Eric Sprott may be in the market buying spot futures in a private letter to his clients." And even as the premium dropped, the price of spot silver increased by over 5%, on the speculation of silver being taken out of the market and delivered to Sprott.
So to summarize: speculation that $300 million in physical silver may be taken out of circulation raises the price of the underlying by 5%. Does that mean that a $3 billion follow on would result in a 50% rise in spot; $30 billion in 500%, and so on? Something tells us the trade off of the premium collapsing to zero in exchange for $100+ silver would be equitable... And as we noted previously, the primary reason for the surge in in the NAV could be many things, but shortage of real physical silver is certainly the most likely one (and good luck trying to buy, transport, store, and insure $10MM or more in physical, without relying on some true physical representation such as PSLV). And if UBS' speculation is true, this has just been confirmed. Most importantly, it once again raises the spectre that anyone wishing to corner the silver market, can do so quite easily even in the aftermath of last year's parabolic move.
Full note from FMX Connect:
Market Recap:
As of the globex close, March Silver was up an astonishing 5.4% ($1.66) on the day, crushing big brother Gold (up .76% on the day). Silver was up an impressive 11 hours in a row, starting from 7 AM. Please enjoy our special commentary below.
Over the last week, and particularly today, silver saw heavy buying. FMX | Connect Managing Partner Vince Lanci discussed the potential for a breakout higher two days ago in an interview hosted by Kitco News (WATCH IT HERE). Of particular note, when asked his opinion on Silver was “If you’re bullish on Gold you should buy Silver.”
Today’s incredible move was the culmination of a comment made by UBS analyst Edel Tully. He stated that hedge fund manager Eric Sprott may be in the market buying spot futures in a private letter to his clients. With declining open interest in a rallying market, it didn’t seem likely to us, but over the last two days we noted open interest has flat-lined and started to turn upward, a bullish indicator.
Intraday moves did not care about how the Euro did or how gold traded. When Silver crossed the 50-day moving average at 30.90 it left Gold in the dust. While thousands of Call butterflies traded in gold over the last few days,they ended the week essentially unchanged.. But the hundreds of calls purchased over the last few days in Silver proved to be big winners for longs with the May 40 Strike garnering the most interest. Finally, note the commitment of traders shows an increase in commercial shorts (an increase of 1,320). This means the bullion dealers have not thrown in the towel and this could just be a market fading away from an impulsive buyer. We’ll wait and see.
Directional Commentary:
Options: Gold volatility was lower going into the weekend and ahead of February options expiration next week. Skew was selectively higher. Options activity remains mostly neutral and is unlikely to manifest strong biases while futures trading is orderly. Conclusion: Neutral
Technical: Gold finished almost $10 higher on the day but still below the highly-cited 50-day moving average at 1673.60. We see this moving average as a strong impediment to gold’s near-term prospects. As a contrasting indicator, open interest has started to creep higher in Jnauary. This (and other factors) leads us to believe that Gold may be due for a near-term correction, but maintain it upward trajectory in the intermediate term. Gold’s objective to the upside is a settlement above 1674 and its objective to the downside is a return to 1600. Conclusion: Neutral
Active Options
G 1675 C, G 1700 C
G 1600 P
H 1700 C
M 1900 C
Z 2000 C, Z 1100 P
ATM Volatility Curve:
As of 1:30 P.M.
Volatility Smile:
***From NYMEX Settlement
End of Day Straddles
GC
Future Bid Offer
G12 1664 25 29
H12 1666.8 65 69
J12 1666.8 101 105
K12 1669.7 130 134
M12 1669.7 156 160
N12 1672.1 182 186
Q12 1672.1 205 209
U12 1674.5 230 234
V12 1674.5 249 253
X12 1676.9 268 272
Z12 1676.9 286 290
As of 1:30 P.M.
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Bingo.
Nobody in their right mind just goes out and buys $350 million worth of spot silver without a-priori having made committiments....
Silver moving into backwardation is precisely because someone is buying spot JUST LIKE SPROTT MAY BE, and the market is suspicious delivery will be taken, as opposed to rolled into a future contract. See Buffet 1997. The negative carry is a result of the demand for SPOT being unfillable at a price, and people rolling their short positions back to defer theri need to deliver, thus backwardation.
Question: $300 million is roughly 10 million ounces, which at 5000 oz/contract, is 2,000 contracts. That's just one green bar's worth of volume, up to the first division on the plot. That's far less volume than traded today. What gives? Is it the hyper-hypothecation at issue?
WTF difference does it make...
PAPER & PHYSICAL markets have already largely decoupled at this point...
You can STACK at anything under $32 (hopefully under $30)... If you want to trade PAPER SILVER... Then that's your prerogative...
Probably. Look for more insane volatility as the price jack-knifes back and forth between the value of the paper (arbitrarily low), and the value of physical (arbitrarily high), with ever increasing tendancy toward the former.
You know, like I said would happen last February.
there's also the Au:Ag ratio to consider...
Most likely, that will compress (if, only for a short while)... My sense is that the the REAL compression (going, say, back, to 14-1 or so, or beyond, as an overshoot)...won't happen for awhile...
That all depends on the industrial buyers. They are the ones that can force an instant overshoot if they are spooked.
Also, note that with current production levels, only silver is only produced at best 7x more than gold, while the gold stockpile remains intact, with the silver stockpile depleted. Silver is priced based on the idea of a massive above ground inventory that governments are willing to dump on the market. Once that illusion is dispelled, silver resets to at least 1/7th gold over the long term (with a major overshoot likely, 10x gold is my personal target, but I think that is probably conservative--I would be almost all out at that price).
Hard to price a continuously produced and consumed commodity that is also money in terms of a commodity that is just money and has an enormous stockpile. Well, hard for an individual. The market will price it correctly, when it is freed to do so.
I appreciate all those thoughts & variables, but on a FUNDAMENTAL level... I still stick by the notion that most silver production is just an incidental offshoot of copper production...
Price "manipulation" schemes interest me little (which is why I UNCHARACTERISTICALLY point to paper technicals in my various comments on this thread)...
I'm 100% certain that you, & many readers here, understand what physical silver is & means... Which is why many STACK... But at the same time, in small increments, the amounts we might need to pay to acquire such can be subject to change... I kind of have a $32 (up or down) level in the back of my head... I've said before that I had the hardest of times buying even small amounts of Ag from coin dealers under $30 (& I don't want to go online to purchase)...
So whatever... Everyone needs a "playing field" to start with... That's my own personal one...
Numbers, numbers, numbers...think about turnips.
" but I think that is probably conservative--I would be almost all out at that price)."
All out to what? Gold?
Exactly.
god lord you are an idiot.
10x gold? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. now that's "conservative"?
so what's it gonna be, cliff..50x gold? 100?
Uh, yeah, like you said last February. Didn't you also say something along the lines of silver will be $100 by the end of 2011? Or was that someone else?
That was someone else. I said paper silver would go to zero.
You also said physical silver would never go under $35 again... you say a lot of things....
Actually, I made a bet with someone that it wouldn't. Someone who then attempted to track down my place of employment and get me fired for my opinons, so fuck him and fuck you.
You're a moron and should be fired as you're too stupid not to pose a grave risk to all those around you.
Every prediction you've made has fallen flat on its face, yet.you.keep.making.them.
A stuck fucking clock is right more than you are.
Now you claim that silver is oscillating between the "paper price" and the "physical price" Physical price in what? PAPER of course. Idiot.
10x gold because...well, it's 15x as abundant and produced in 7x the volume, has mostly industrial uses...fuck, yeah the facts suggest such a prediction is just utterly absurd.
Production would have to fall first, significantly. Then, no substitution. At even 1/10 of gold, a TON of the industrial uses of silver get CRUSHED. And they don't happen.
This is why the oil price just stays high, instead of continuing to rise. But, you're not intelligent enough to understand things like this. You need me to tell them to you.
You are so fucking stupid. I've been saying the same damn thing for a year. I reiterate it in practically every thread on the subject. You make it seem like I am tap dancing in and out of positions, but I'm not, you just make up what you think my positions are in each thread, and scream and shout about how stupid I am for having them.
Christ almighty.
Don't consider the momentum that would build in a price move from 1:52 GSR to the 1:7 GSR implied by pure production figures, or the 5:1 GSR implied by current stockpiles. Yes, let's ignore that and just make up a price based on conditions that have persisted for thousands of years, but have dramatically changed in the last 100 to the point that the historical price should be thrown out of the window.
Also, don't consider that it takes a long time to spool up new mine production. Ten years is not out of the question for a new mine to begin production. Two years isn't out of the question for reopening a mine that was closed previously. Let us also fail to consider that silver is mined mostly as a byproduct, and that as such, any downturn in industrial use due to depression is more than made up for in loss of production of silver.
Yes, by ignoring all these facts and more, we can arrive at Trav's thesis as a logical conclusion. One need only ignore any and all facts, and use our gut feelings. But not just any gut feelings, only those tainted by a lifetime of bile and hatred built up and brought to a boil over the loss of everything important to you are good enough to allow us to overcome this level of cognitive dissonance and generate the level of doublethink required to be confronted with this wave of bullish facts and still fail to so much as consider the fact that silver might just be a good thing to buy.
Or, of course, we could just go with the idea that Trav actually does understand all this, and he is actually just trying to impoverish everyone by encouraging them to do nothing while inflation destroys their purchasing power, so he gets a bigger share of the remaining oil so he can build himself a harem of sterilized sex slaves, allowing him to take out his frustrations and impotence on those who can't fight back.
@ rehypothecator~~~hi! nice post for a 6-wk noobie, imo, even if sawyer gave you the wtf!
you seem to be in dialogue w/ tyler and you "did the math" too, coming to 2,000 contracts
and you have questions and maybe some confusion. great! imo, that is exactly what this site is about
it is often impossible to answer "why?" in econ & market behavior, and rarely possible to do so with certainty. today, the price went up and when it crossed the 50-day moving average, the buyers responded in volume. why ask why? if/when it crosses the 50 DMA heading down, the sellers tend to respond in volume too. these are "market" signals to technical traders who focus on price behavior, because often, when these "lines are crossed" it means a change in trend and "the trend is your friend"
often, but not always. there are "head fakes" and "chart painting" too, so when we get this kinda price behavior, we generally look for "confirmation", which, like anything else, means different things to different people
however, if the wild ride called the silver price goes down again on monday and closes below that 50 DMA, we would certainly lack confirmation. at least i would!
you can see the moving averages on the gold charts~~they are the colored lines. notice how different they look on the daily and the weekly gold charts and how much the weekly charts tend to sm00th out the price "action". the MAs with their different periods of "days" [50-day; 100-day] help show short/med/long-term trends, and are themselves ways of "sm00thing out the price" for cranial consumption and digestion
this is from the article (paste/my emph): When Silver crossed the 50-day moving average at 30.90 it left Gold in the dust
why the hell they didn't put the 50 DMA on the fuking chart is way beyond slewie's paygrade, but tyler is having so much fun here, it's probably better this way!
Slew--did you see my post from yesterday 11:45 under the Faber story? If not, we think very much alike, my friend. what do they day? great minds...;-)
price is determined at the margin. If I want to buy 1001 ounces, and there are only 1000, that 1 ounce forces the price up for all 1001.
He should have bought SLV and then ask for silver.
There is no way they can announce a 1 trillion dollar quantative easing program with oil at $100, Gold at $1660, the S&P and dow surging and etc.etc.etc. Whether that sets the market going the other way who knows.
You're right. Better make it $10 trillion.
I guess what I am asking Tmosley is when they don't announce is that the catalyst that everyone on here holding VXX or whatever is waiting for? Everyone agrees the market is at nosebleed levels but what sparks the selloff? The banks on here have been screaming QE or else the whole run up. Do we get the "or else"?
QE never stopped, it just went underground. It can be seen clear as day in the money supply figures.
I doubt there will ever be a selloff. The Fed will print to infinite, even if it never tells anyone.
Thats what I was afraid you wre going to say.
& I would agree... FWIW
So why not load up on LULU and Chipolte and NFLX and go for the ride for a while?
Historically stocks underperform other assets in such an environment. They might never go down nominally, but a million bucks today might not buy you a cup of coffee in five years, so your 200% annual return isn't worth much.
I agree with everything you are saying. I just don't think the deleveraging/deflationary part of the game is done yet. But maybe it is.
How can it be done when they've made it worse? I don't think it's really even gotten any traction, yet. When the defaults in Europe start in earnest, I think that's when we'll see the deflationary part of the game truly begin to influence events in the market.
I see Tmosley making the Peter Schiff agrument. Stocks may go up in nominal terms but lose value priced in gold. That means if you are shorting and waiting for a collapse in stocks you get creamed. So hold metals and keep your purchasing power. I am more of a believer that it won't be that easy. I know the market is going up in a straight line lately but the deflationary shocks will still be hitting and that is what will force the real inflationary response. Anyway I think at some point we start heading down again. Stocks and metals.
Does Peter Schiff say that? I kept getting calls from his brokerage wanting me to buy stocks (foreign stocks, admittedly, but stocks nonetheless) for years.
I laughed and said "no thank you". I was somewhat interested when he opened his PM unit, but I could never get a callback from then, and didn't really care enough to follow up.
He sees the dow to gold ratio getting close to 1/1. But he does not think the dow has to fall to get there. The salesman aspect of how he does things concerns me but he does not deviate. His big thing right now is that once Europe steps out of the spotlight the dollar starts freefall again. Long term his advice is good but short term it could get you crushed.
Yes, I like a lot of what he says. I even bought three of his books, and don't hesitate to lend them out. Just don't get taken in by his "their paper is better than our paper" BS. Paper is paper. Sometimes paper is safe, and lucrative, sometimes not. Now it is decidedly not (on both counts). I told his broker that I wanted the highest dividend he could get me, he wanted to set me up with Canadian oil trusts, paying a 9% dividend per year. I thought about it. Until I realized that didn't even match the appreciation of silver for the last 8 years (this was some time ago).
So I said "no thank you".
Man if all fiat goes there is going to be some crazy times coming.
Perhaps. The closest historical analogue to the current situation is Yuan China. They were a hegemonic power that was totally unassailable from outside that had a paper currency that was the (known) world reserve currency. They lasted a surprisingly long time, taking three bouts of hyperinflation to finally destabilize the government enough that a new dynasty was able to take hold. Start to finish, they lasted about a hundred years after they adopted fiat currency. Depending on how you measure it, we are between 41 and 79 years. It could go a while longer.
Also note that theirs was the longest fiat regime in human history, aside from the tally stick system of England, though that wasn't so much a currency (it hardly circulated) as a means of granting nobility.
You will have more time in a deflationary shock with gold. In a deleveraging bad assets sell off first. Gold is a hedge that I would hold onto unless I absolutely had to sell. I've always felt like I've left money on the table whenever I've sold gold and silver.
Why the hell would I want to do that... My name isn't Robo Tard...
on this... Everyone agrees the market is at nosebleed levels but what sparks the selloff?
That's the thing... THERE NEVER IS ANY SPARK... It just happens... Nobody knows why the markets are going up (past nosebleed)... This isn't altogether different from Jan-Mar 2000 when the NASDAQ went up despite dire predictions... In the end they called it "climbing the wall of worry"...
By the end, it just happened... No spark... In fact, I'd be more worried AT THIS POINT, when you start to hear things like PERMANENTLY HIGH PLATEAUS...
Either way... I don't trade paper... So I'm indifferent to these paper price gyrations... None of it has been redeemed, or, until it has, it hasn't any worth at all, so why pay it mind?
None of it has been redeemed, or, until it has, it hasn't any worth at all, so why pay it mind?
That is brilliant, stock valuations being claims against the future--a future that has zero chance of being like the past that has been linearly extrapolated into the future via debt based economic modeling.
This is not the nose bleed you seek.
Go back to April of last year. Anything close to 50 dollars is going to pull in the really stubborn anti bull like a event horizon of a dying star.
However.... if it stays above 50 silver and head to 100....
I doubt that I will be able to maintain my breath and adequate blood pressure. You know what they say, Men only have enough blood for the Brain or the Penis. But not both.
'The price above the $35-$35 area' ... can you be a bit more specific ;)
Touche' (if you were talking to me)...
YES... I can be more specific (if you want me to look more closely at paper charts)... Frankly - I was just eyeballing the candles (because REALLY, I don't trade silver, I just STACK it at above or below price points)... If you're really interested, let me know & I'll pull up some fancier software based trading levels...
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI
The MERCURY dime tutorial is as follows...
Look at the two LONG September red candles (just above $35)... Then you see a chart GAP at about the same level in July... Then TWO chart gaps at about the same level last March...
That's 4 basic GAPS (that have N-E-V-E-R spent time painting more candles at those level in between... It's rather unusual...
I have little doubt that the levels will eventually be taken out to the upside (even on paper charts)... But before that happens, that's FODDEFR to work with for the paper pushing fucknuts to STALL with...
The levels also align very well with fibonacci extensions (which are the BIBLE of technical paper trading fucknuts)... Gotta love & respect the fucknuts...
We Bulls love to stack silver or gold.
But in order to stack you have to have dollars.
Buy low, sell high. And never paper. Just physical.
If you do it right, it will accumulate when the tape is going higher as long you know when to halt to rest when the tape drops vertically or slowly over time.
(Rangebound tape is a bitch, but I use it to plan my next move.)
Savvy?
There was an interview I saw a few months back with....Jim Sinclair maybe? He was interviewing a guy who used to trade lumber or something. He said, whenever there is an UP day over 3-4%, expect a down day. Wouldn't be surprised if Monday was down 2-3%.
I talked with a timber man for some trees to sell to him.
He was crying because these fine trees will literally rot in his sawmill before the demand for wood rises enough to pay for the sale.
And soon after, one of our mills slowed way down.
It's gas tankers feeding the rigs now not log trucks.
Understand.
Own mixed woods in Vermont.
The last jag I sold was in 2006 - $300/1,000 board feet for mixed spruce/fir - nice 60 to 80 years old. Buyers were from Canada. They would haul to Quebec, process and re-sell to the USA ( and bag subsidies from the Canadian Government).
They are done.
Sold some fine cherry back then for as much as $1.00 per 1 bf. Buyers were from Taiwan. They are still around, but will only pay half of that now for veneer grade. My logs were 100+ years old.
I will let my timber rot in the woods before I sell at today's prices, which match those of the 1960s.
Hey f_s, it's ok, just me being facetious. I'm all physical too. Thanks for the offer.
But do wonder:
'Further, holdings are in an allocated, fully physcal, LBMA good delivery, unencumbered segregation at the Royal Canadian Mint'
um, if this is true (which would surprise me as I thought as tmosley has stated - Sprott owna physical in his own vaults) isn't this silver no more safe than Gold at Brinks etc. If the SHTF you've got to have it in your own possession, or a decent diving suit for the countless boating incidents that have taken place!
I figured you were being facetious (& no harm done)...
I just spelled it out for the sake of anyone else who might have not understood what I was saying...
As far as SPROTT is concerned, I could give a rat's ass... It's no different to me (manipulatively speaking), than an NFP number or "Fed minutes" meeting...
There are PAPER MARKETS & there are PHYSICAL MARKETS... Paper markets are "Jew confetti"... With regards to PM's, they have not COMPLETELY become disconnected from paper spot as we speak (though they are rapidly becoming so)... So in the mean time, the trick (if you're a stacker), is just to get the best deal you can...
As long as the illusion is still present, I think one may still use GENERAL spot price technicals as a guideline... JMHO
SilverBugs must be very happy today.
My oil is down ::((
This silver bug is sad, actually.
I like cheap silver.
Me too. I wish to bid at below 30 but that is not going to happen =(
However the ASK side is looking pretty good and I may use it to pay for the expense of bidding above 30 while it is rising into strength.
"speculation that $300 million in physical silver may be taken out of circulation raises the price of the underlying by 5%."
The reality of the falseness of this rumor will bring silver down 10%. No Comex crash.
In what world is a 10% fall in the COMEX not a crash? In what world does a falling price not cause an increase in demand.
Oh yeah, Ponziworld. Starring Kevin Kostner.
"Gold standard is not a myth! I've seen it!"
Coming 2012.
i can't help but wonder what you get out of your contrarian posts?
do you really think you're convincing anyone here at ZH to offload their physical?
And if the silver does come down, I have a saying:
"Come to papa"
I got bitch slapped last year when it fell off towards the fall. But I have learned.
Buy and hold, baby. Silver and gold are going to be useful beyond the profits they provide when denominated in USD.
Hey guys first comment on the best site on the net by far! another one of the silver faithful here, so much so i write songs about it http://www.youtube.com/user/TheExitchambers
5 to 1 slv to gld, bring it on bitchez!
love your work Tyler
"It's getting exciting now. Think of everything we've accomplished, man. Out these windows, we will view the collapse of financial history. One step closer to economic equilibrium."
exitc,
very well done. i hope you do not mind if i
hold a special place in my heart for your art.
it just gets better as i am listening. you have
your sound down real good. real good. stay on the
farm.
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2012/1/20_J...
Jim Sinclair: king world news
Friday, January 20, 2012
.
"imf beard, 2012 global qe3".
new york fed sources the fed bank money,
usa taxpayer and victims of usa wars pay the interest.
principal gets rolled as par usual.
the global financial system becomes more bloated,
expensive and remote.
london rehypothecates everything to the moon,
reflating even the broken inelastic membranes
as there is some marginal money to be stolen.
the imf rescues (in-debts) the world, even more so,
for a price.
sovereigns end up borrowing their own sovereignty
at interest to the global leverage system.
growth is sought at the site of new graves.
daisies. can you eat daisies?
the media misrepresents everything. people are
totally confused and give up. new format in broadcasting
breaks out, "reality" news, people make up their own news.
it is so much fun. special codes are given out so people
can print their own money at home, this saves billions
in government services cutbacks.
on a personal note i sell everything for a fraction of
what i paid for it and move to a cabin down by the river,
somewhere where the sun never shines, maybe a cave?
maybe start a grub and cave cricket culinary art institute.
i would broadcast it on youtube for free but have no electricity,
oh well.
and this last thing, we should be hearing about functional
cyborgs of some kind very soon, what is taking so long with
the merging of biologic and techno-logic anatomy and intelligence?
.
i hear some murmerings. here something equally disturbing...
James Dines - This Will be a Dangerous Collapse & Endgame
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/1/20_Ja...
Today King World News interviewed legendary James Dines, author of The Dines Letter, to get his take on the current crisis and where we are headed. Dines discussed gold, silver, uranium, the stock markets and more, but first Dines had this ominous warning: “We’re coming to an endgame of some type. Look, this is just straight fact, the planet is limited and the population is soaring. Sooner or later we are going to start running out of resources, sooner or later the last copper mine ever to be discovered on planet earth will be found.”
"..What’s going on is there’s something disturbing humanity. It’s disturbing the mass mind of humanity on this planet. I think it’s the currencies. People simply cannot live on what they are earning. It’s the government printing more paper (money) than actual wealth is being created.
What’s happening is similar to the Ersatz bread, in Germany, during the war when there was not enough wheat. They put sawdust, 10% of the bread was made of sawdust. It smelled good and tasted good, but the people began to starve, and that’s what’s happening with the currencies of the world. People feel this squeeze and they don’t know what to do about it."
.
silver sells for $66.60 an ounce by 12/21/2012, that includes a premium.
but mostly you must wait 12 weeks for delivery. roving bands of college
graduates take to stealing solar panels for the silver content.
here a deal. give me the down arrows and i'll delete this post for ya!
so you don't have to see it or think about it. just make sure no one
replies !
Thank you for the remembering of the Bread.
We are becoming debt free as fast as we can so that we may afford 10 dollar loaf when it gets to the store. We wont eat much, but it will be not starving.
There is always hunting to consider. I don't know if certain animals will be in "Any season" and allowed to be harvested on sight. If this is the case then I will probably attempt to provide using a processor for the meat, some for the family and the rest for the area.
No need to wait 12 weeks for delivery. If you are trading on a exchange 24/7 you can demand and take physical in the mail within days.
Hunting, LOL! Anybody with a gun will be poaching to feed themselves. Wildlife in this country will suffer a DEVASTATING LOSS.
to the down, red, arrow, all i can say is
hungry seagulls follow only one law or rule,
the law of hunger. apologies as always.
No APologies needed.
There were times in life Starvation was a teacher.
When you become able to provide for yourself and several others, you remember the hard times of hunger.
Keep on doing what you are doing.
Maybe you got it for too many 6's in the Dec. 2012 silver prediction?
probably just psychobabble guess work as
par usual. that would be my guess.
I guess most / a lot of the folks on this blog hold physical gold and / or silver. I went with the Central Fund of Canada (CEF) which holds a mix of gold and silver. My approach has been to continue buying CEF on significant pull backs but trade gold and silver using gld and slv.
CEF - my core holding since January 5, 2006 @ $6.98. Nothing like buy and hold for PM.
Intraday low spot silver $19 high $52 average $38 for 2012
With the four new Fed voters, the FOMC structure is decidedly more dovish, as previously talked about here. Three hawks have left at the end of 2011 and are being replaced by only one incoming hawk, Jeffery Lacker (Richmond). The decision next Wednesday will be the first test of the new mix of FOMC voting members.
Clearly, the Fed will not tighten fiscal policy. The market sure seems like it is fully expecting QE3 next Wednesday. According to Trim Tabs, institutional shorts at at near lows while retail investors are rapidly departing from the game..seems like a perfect point to hose the little guy. About a week ago, Steve Liesman, a Fed shill, wrote a piece about how more QE (link is actually a video) may be coming and how he supports more QE . Also, according to Bloomberg, Treasuries just had their worst week in a month. If you recall QE2, Treasuries also dropped as investors flocked to “riskier” assets so that same play may be going on now if the melt up is because QE3 is being leaked.
Of course, just because the market is expecting QE3 doesn’t mean that it will happen. If it doesn’t, though, Mr. Market may be awfully disappointed. The last thing the Fed needs is a market freak out right now (on the other hand, the Fed may need market turmoil as an excuse for QE3). In the event that QE3 is announced, silver should be propelled to somewhere between $60 and $150 by the end of the year.
The Fed is finding itself between a rock and a hard place. On one hand, more QE leads to more inflation, while on the other hand, the Fed must purchase Treasuries to keep yields low. If rates rise even a few percentage points, the US will default. Ultimately, the game ends in either hyperinflation and total collapse of the banking system, or in a best case scenario, a restructuring of US debt and a significant devaluation of the USD.
TheSilverJournal.com
They can tank the markets for a short period of time and scare the shit out of everybody then quickly reintroduce the punchbowl. The reason for pulling the rug out from under the markets prior to overt QE3 is oil hovering at $100/barrel
deflator
oil hovering at $100/barrel
Refineries are shutting down/cutting way back due to a decrease in GLOBAL demand.Also, the usage of same is at levels not seen since right before the last BIG ONE late '07, and then '08.
Yet the prices are up?.
Who do you think is the culprit behind this increase?
real supply is also declining
Nothing new, Chiina entered 10-days-long Lunar New Year holiday today and exchanges will close for 10 days. Gold and silver shall have bold moves in this period, when Chinese out of holiday and they have to pay premium for whatever gold&silver they can find.
And gold and silver they shall find.
I developed a stragety for the next two weeks. If it works out, it should be pretty good.
Dealing in physical takes work.
The stuff is heavy, and valuable, so moving it is sticky.
Enter the purveyors of alternate means of ownership, a.k.a. paper promises.
This is what stocks are, paper promises.
Some promises are much better than others.
Who do you trust?
trust no man.
Since the blow-off top, silver has had many more down days larger in size than today's up move. Why are all of those drops "manipulation", but today's rise is legitimate buying? Is it not at least possible Sprott is today's Amaranth or Sumitomo Shoji (natgas and copper, respectively)?
Why is it that an external force is required to to keep a beach ball underwater, yet when it rises, there is no force acting on it?
I have been saying for a long time, the market is manipulated, whether it is up or down is of no consequence. Days when it is allowed to rise require no manipulation. The rise happens naturally. Days when it falls require intervention, either direct or psychological. How else can you possibly explain a 52:1 silver to gold ratio in an environment where there is less silver above ground than gold, equal amounts of investment demand, and silver is produced at a rate of only 7x that of gold?
Makes no sense to me. Unless the markets are broken. Which has been shown to be the case repeatedly.
Again you have to go back to the 1979 and Hunt Brothers.
I believe it is also a method with which to suppress the common Joe Blow from gaining riches to pay off debts that the system requires to stay alive.
There is simply too much paper shares out there in the market world that if all these pretend Paper shares of Gold and Silver are to be redeemed this minute for PHYSICAL delivery right now, this weekend...
There may not be enough metal on hand to do it, and if they do this... the market will implode on paper when the actual metal runs out while rising to prices we have never seen.
I look at 50 silver to one gold as a chance to get to gold. Once it starts to go down to (Up) 30 silver to 1 Gold, I should see a increase in my value.
It is all physical not pretend paper for the kids unwilling to put down real dollars for real metal.
why is it that morons like you resort to petitio principii?
Why is it morons like you use Latin terms when the English term is much more widely known? Do you think it makes you look smarter?
The FACT of silver price manipulation is well documented. Only a moron like you who doesn't want to face the fact that he is wrong can ignore the facts of the matter.
Go sell doublethink someplace else.
I liked the price rise, but weekend is here. The Tape will stop until sunday night.
The exchanges will trade on up or down.
I am still buying at a certain price.
Paper is irrevelant and Europe is irrevelant.
Gold will have it's day, and I hope to be there before it too, takes off.
here some links for ya.
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Beyond Genesis – The Revolution of the Mind
http://verbewarp.blogspot.com/
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"..It has been stated elsewhere in this Blog, that there are no conspiracies but there are powerful forces of numerous special interest groups and these groups compete with each other for the spoils and the looting, in the same manner as with the human individuals. In other words, our whole system of socio-economic ordering can be captured. Indeed, it has been captured by these competing collectives of our creation, and where these collectives corrupt completely, and thoroughly, they effectively dredge all resources and asset classes for themselves. The Lords of the Realm are the Bankers, those that create debt from nothing and reap our future productivity in return."
....
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Shattering Midas’s Curse…Gold: De-spell-eD
January 19, 2012
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2012/01/19/shattering-midass-curse-gold-...
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"..In a word, Gold does not “care”. It is like the Sun, it just sits there and Shines. Please ponder this carefully. The Sun will Blind you just as easily (in seconds) as it will show you the way." ..
Oh by the way Platinum Ounce Coins are coming out to ASK at 1800 and above. Gold is also doing the same.
It will be a while before the tape reflects this activity in the metals. When it does, be quick.
Blindman, thanks for the scope
come down the farm anytime, we got aligator swamp burgers and moonshine on tap
we jam out with silver plated banjoes and gold plated mic's, around a huge ass bombfire burning with gov bonds and greenbacks ya'll.
appreciate the welcome. nickel plated banjo pot
rims i know. is there gold in mics? that would
be put to good use. you have a real good thing
going on, wish i could be there where ever there is.
Where you go, there you are!
=)
i almost forgot, thanks.
dupe substitute. so here ya go
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Vincent Browne v The Condescending Euro Prick
Posted on January 20, 2012 by maxkeiser
http://maxkeiser.com/2012/01/20/vincent-browne-v-the-condescending-euro-...
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says it all, makes me proud this vincent brown.
All Hail Vincent!!
the best ending would have been vince jumping over three rows of chairs and twisting off the effers head
now THATs a video I can belive in! ;)
so long as 'there' is not a 'utopian' society (no place), where fair value, currency and the sweat of my brow, isn't fixed by the machination of an elite group insistant upon their own self preservation and augmentation... 'there' im ... i'll be happy
This piece is apalling sycophantic crap, and really not worthy of ZH. The so called justification for using a surprise raid on the premium (front run by the underwriters and all in the happy inner circle no doubt) just does not bear scrutiny in the light of similar operations conducted in PHYS the gold fund - it is spin worthy of Bernanke and simply plainly not true. Price reveals exactly this in the history of PHYS if you can be bothered to do the work.
Some background: Sprott promised me PERSONALLY by telephone after the first debacle with the gold fund PHYS - he went back to the table within WEEKS of the new issue (and I got caught) that this routine would not take place again. He rang me, and I was grateful, and believed him. See my previous posts for the detail, here and elsewhere but the gist is clear - you were warned, few listened, most ripped into me for criticising goldenballs. He has since repeated the process several times so clearly he lied to me. Unfortunately this is what you get if you buy into these funds where the managing agent is subject to a trust deed rather than company law - you don't even get the chance to vote to fire the freakin management once a year.
If anyone doubts the facts here, take a look at PHYS, where buyers during the first few weeks of the new issue in May needed to wait until late November of the same year to break even in a period when Gold was rocketing skywards.
Sprott is pursuing a political agenda using his fund holders money - that is as plain as the nose on my face. He is using vehicles where he can do anything de damn well likes with complete impunity, and all discussions of "failure to understand the distinction between premium and NAV" are ridiculous and childish in my opinion - we trade one number - it is called PRICE. If someone is allowed to take a huge chunk out of price without warning, and when the markets are closed, and investors are trapped, then other words for that in my own opinion are "theft", "scam" etc. Put it this way, I'd shut up and smile if I could take the other side of just one of these deals. Anyone who is in SPROTT funds is at permanent risk of overnight "revaluation" without reference or warning - sort of like burglary but legalised and confined to your broking account.
Buy ZKB - safer than the Sprott warchest, and a lot less political. Lets see what happens to price next week when Blythe and her wrecking crew hit the sell button.
Thanks its nice to know someone who has had actual contact with these perps... er I mean peps.
Puts everything into perspective.
I thought he was a straight shooter... What a gullible dipshit Arrrggg.
He is fabulously wealthy and my own impression is that he is probably a reasonable sort, but is now so convinced of his own mission and that he has become more than a little like those he fights, in that he now recklessly disregards the interests of his investors, using the excuse that it will all be all right in the long term - which is why I took exception to "Tyler's" justfication. If a manager can decide to take 10% out of the price overnight, without warning, whilst his investor's are defenceless, it is disingenuous - frankly crooked - to then say "well they shoiuld be all right in the long run". The overnight P&L IS the overnight P&L, and no-one makes the losers whole. The premium is not "free money" to be spent or re-allocated at the whim and fancy of some prick with an agenda. Eventually, if anything remains of the American financial system, this massive loophole in corporate governance and accountability will be slammed shut. Meanwhile, the vested interests - External Auditors, underwriters (incidentally why do you need underwriters for an issue of precious metals particpation above NAV?) adn advisers - many snouts eat at the same trough, all paid for by the EXISTING INVESTORS to whom not one red cent of incremental value accrues directly. Those who buy in the day following reap any benefit "pari passu".
bozzy:
That's why I like it all delivered to my house, stashed somewhere hidden in hole in the ground.
It's hardly today's silver surge:
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag85-pres.gif
Umm it was just a bunch of shorts being forced out through stop losses. Now with no buyers it will work its way back down again. Those who like cheap silver will get another chance soon
The Tape may have been stopped for the weekend and already this morning several hundred asks are up to 45 dollars and higher, and they are being bought.
Bids are sitting idle (33.80 and down) because no one wants to sell below 37 as of this post.
We may break fifty today off tape on the exchange and I think the tape is going to be vertical straight up when open tomorrow night CST.
This is what I live for. The last 3 months have been time to sleep and rest to think.
Now? It's the happy time. Pass the beer.
sounds Bullish..due to:
1. gradual loss of the dollar as the currency reserve?
2. inflation?
3. war with Iran?
4. > $Trillion$ QE3?
5. all of the above?
If I understand this post correctly, from now on, Ag's spot price will be its Sprott price?
Winning.
Another reason to be bullish on da' Argentum, Plata, Silver....
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All the best stackers,
Ahoy!
long silver
nov 2008..
buy the dips
it's all good
Sprott is part of the 0.001% and may or may not be able to move the market but he can sure skrew over PSLV holders.
This rally is all about risk-on sentiment (look at the CCI) in the face of stealth QE.
Earlier this weekend I was over the top. I watched the exchange fill in all the way down to 34 dollars with a buck spread.
There were very little selling and buying.
I have a feeling that only those who MUST sell or buy are doing so, all others are sitting pretty on a mountain of silver.
IF the tape starts tonight and everyone takes profit there is going to be a one hell of a knife to catch. because when it comes back up it's going to do so very fast leaving you stuck in cash or out of luck.
Silver is a bitch to trade. Wait long time, sleep late miss knife, so solly, so lazy.
UGH.
And sometimes it climbs 5 cents at a time for a very long time and by the time you walk away, that is when everyone else cashes in for profit taking leaving you holding the bag at the top.
The ultimate fickle mistress but worth it long run.
White and gold opened a bit weak...nothing to report here...