Explaining Yesterday's Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Payroll "Beat"

Since there still is confusion regarding yesterday's whopping "surge" in non-farm payrolls, which represented a 243K jump in the Establishment survey (of which 490K was temp jobs, same as in the Household Survey where temp jobs soared by a record 699K), yet only to arrive at an employment number last seen ten years ago, when the US population was about 30 million lower (think about that: 30 million increase in population and no change in the total employed), here is the final explanation of what happened yesterday.

As everyone knows by now, January is when the BLS imposes its annual seasonal adjustment revision (more on that in a second) for the previous January-December period. What this manifests itself most directly in, is the divergence between the Nonadjusted January number of the establishment survey of any given year and the Unadjusted number. And while the January adjustment is always substantial, it is the fact that the so-called beat was entirely based on assumptions that makes yesterday's NFP number so meaningless, and hardly the basis to assume that the US economy has taken off.

The chart below shows the adjusted and unadjusted employment survey data for total Nonfarm Employees. The annual January overadjustment is more than evident. Just as evident are the subsequent under-adjustments as seasonal data is lowered to account for volatility in the NSA data. What is very notable is that in January, absent BLS smoothing calculation, which are nowhere in the labor force, but solely in the mind of a few BLS employees, the real economy lost 2,689,000 jobs, while net of the adjustment, it actually gained 243,000 jobs: a delta of 2,932,000 jobs based solely on statistical assumptions in an excel spreadsheet!

So how does this data fit in specifically in the context of the just passed NFP whopper of a number? Simple. The chart below shows the January seasonal adjustment for the past 4 years, since 2009. The number of jobs added for "seasonal" purposes to the NFP number were as follows: 2009 - 2,006,000; 2010 - 1,970,000; 2011 - 2,129,000, and the all important 2012: 2,146,000. Once again, this is the number added to the NFP unrevised baseline to get a "final" number which is then blasted to the media. The chart below shows the historical January adjustment, to the NFP data, as well as the 2012 reported adjustment, and also what the statistical adjustment would be for the NFP number to have the NFP number come in line with expectations of a 140,000 beat.

Here is the kicker: the market mood yesterday would have been far more somber if instead of a seasonal fudge-factored statistical addition of 2,146,000 jobs, the BLS had decided on a number that is merely the simple average of the statistical adjustment of the past 3 years, which comes down to 2,035,000. In fact, had the BLS used this seasonal adjustment, the final NFP headline number (SA) would have been +132,000, or a miss of expectations of 8,000 (the Seasonal Adjustment number to get to consensus January expectations would have to be +2,043,000 to the NFP number). In other words, the difference between a + and - 2% move in the stock market is based on less than a 5% variation to the entire January seasonal adjustment, as had the BLS add just the simple average, the BLS report would have been a disappointing miss, and the market would have likely dropped (although with 5 momos in charge of the entire market, the thesis would have likely promptly shifted to "more QE coming" so who really knows). And now you know how the BLS' seasonal adjustment, which as Charles Biderman pointed out yesterday is guarded as secretly as Coke's recipe, defined the tone and the mood of the market for at least one month.

Finally, as to some newsletter and namesdropping blogs allegation that the Labor Force did not, in fact, increase by 1.2 million in January, we have one simple question: just how does one "refute" a statement with an assumption? Because last we checked, the BLS did not provide a smoothing breakdown of how it applied its seasonal adjustment for the "population control effects" which saw the population increase by 1.7 million in January and those not in the labor force rose by 1.2 million. Quite the contrary , what the BLS did provide is Table C: "December 2011-January 2012 changes in selected labor force measures, with adjustments for population control effects" which does show how on an apples to apples basis the adjustment factors did in fact impact the two key components in determining the unemployment rate: the amount of Americans employed, and those not in the labor force.

And while one can try to say it is inconceivable to say that the US population jumped by 1.7 million in one month, we reply that this is coming from the BLS whose admission of the "population control effect" adjustment merely confirms that it has been misrepresenting the actual labor force participation rate for at least a year. In other words, while one may pander to semantics, and believe that a data series is not a data series because of one's mastery of sophistry and assumptions, this is totally irrelevant: the end result is that in January, those "not in the labor force" did in fact rise by 1.2 million (whether compared to December or to 2011 - please, go ahead and check as many times as needed), and the labor force participation rate dropped to a new 30 year low of 63.7%, a number which incidentally only has to drop by 5% more percent for the BLS to report zero, or even a negative, unemployment rate. 

Comments

[GeneMarchbanks]

+8.3

[Randall Cabot]

I think Biderman is a bit wacked. He bases his case on withholding tax data up until the end of December but Adler in another ZH article shows the graph right through January in which taxes clearly spike in that month until the last week:

Adler: "The real time Federal Withholding Tax daily data for January, which I dutifully cover each week in the Treasury updates, showed a massive surge beginning in late December."

Adler surmises that there could have been a large amount of money in bonuses and sales commissions paid out in that time leading the BLS to interpret this, accidently or on purpose, as being from an increase in employment rather than from higher pay for some.

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/deconstructing-massive-beat-employment-data    

[onebir]

"Adler surmises that there could have been a large amount of money in bonuses and sales commissions paid out in that time leading the BLS to interpret this, accidently or on purpose, as being from an increase in employment rather than from higher pay for some."

But Biderman berates the BLS uses a survey & not taking the real time withholding tax data into account (perhaps because they don't have a good way to disentangle employment, hours, bonuses etc)

[Randall Cabot]

Biderman says the BLS doesn't use real time tax data to report real time wages and jobs to get an accurate count for a year but he also says nobody he knows has a clue as to how BLS comes up with the seasonal adjustments so Adler apparently believes that the BLS does see the tax figures and uses them in their estimation of the seasonal adjustments.

[economics1996]

According to the BLS the CLFPR is 63.4% for January 2012, the lowest since February 1984, 28 years.  Sloppy.

[TruthInSunshine]

Anyone who doesn't understand that is worse than 1979 through 1983 - WAY worse, is comatose.

Back then, an energy/oil crisis shocked the economy that was already reeling from high interest rates and inflation, and produced a cyclical downturn.

The plants/factories weren't relocated offshore, however, and the jobs were not automated, and when Volcker came in and broke the back of inflation by raising interest rates even higher, people and businesses regained their confidence and the displaced workers went right back to work at their old jobs (with higher pay).

The 12 million jobs lost in the last decade are never coming back, and once the FIRE economy that has corresponded with the crack up credit/debt leveraging cycle that is the primary reason the U.S. saw nominal GDP growth for the last 30 years fully breaks (and that process is already underway thanks to the tsunami of deleveraging that's also underway), the true extent of the structural damage to the American (and many other developed nations) economy will be all too evident to even the formerly comatose sheep.

As far as blame is concerned, Wall Street had a huge hand in bringing these problems about, as they purchased the political leadership of the U.S. (hello Barney Frank, Newt Gingrich, Bush, Obama, Cantor, Pelosi, et al), but they were far from the only force doing damage - unions, government bloat, welfare state mentality, a sense of privilege and divine entitlement, mortgage brokers and real estate gone wild, sell side anal-cysts in the financial sector, and instant gratification, loan devouring consumers all contributed.

Deep Capture, unchecked greed, a lack of leadership acting in the national best interest and cultural rot (Jerry Springer, Dancing with the Stars, iAnything, Jersey Shore, Real Housewives, epicly bad schools and parenting, Big Brother SNAP card dependence), and a ravenous, resource sucking Military-Industrial-Financial Complex fed by Crony Capitalism has firmly set this nation on a collision course with the mountain side.

For anyone wondering what the future course will look like, look to the past, and SSDD is the answer, which means debasement of living standards which serves as centrifugal force to reinforce all the above-mentioned problems besetting this (and other) developed nations - here are 2 simple charts that showsthe gameplan (gee, I wonder what the government and esteemed Federal Reserve will do to 'fix' things?):

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-nrPYyjgVL4M/TjJC5QI_YYI/AAAAAAAAAmo/dOWtVTiPtx...

https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-wHrUTYZRMUE/TX7M_RQo9LI/AAAAAAAAAog/C...

Competitive Currency Devaluation (Part 1)

[Thomas]

I think he is referring to Ritholtz as the blowhard blogger.

[scatterbrains]

fuk the BLS I use a proprietory HQI (hooker quality index) gleaned from the nyc craigslist postings and judging by the quality of the women joining the hooker work force I can assure you that the economy is still falling off a cliff.

[Mentaliusanything]

So Truth, Do you think all of those new participants they found from the census will now be adjusted for the US GNP. These twisters of facts cannot deny more people are around and that lowers the end result, substantially.

Oh thats right they swaped to GDP in 1991 so they can fiddly them offshore 

[TruthInSunshine]

It's timely that you raised this point -and I should've posted this days ago (I would have, had I known about it), but here is the explanation from of the BLS's Betsey Stevenson as to why the numbers came out as they did:

"There was not a big increase in discouraged workers," economist Betsey Stevenson (Betsey Stevenson, the chief economist at the Department of Labor, who works directly under the Secretary of Labor*) commented on Twitter. "What happened was Census found a bunch of old people we had assumed died." [The Wall Street Journal, 2/3/12]

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/02/03/whats-behind-the-unemployment-...

Okay, so Betsey Stevenson (Betsey Stevenson, the chief economist at the Department of Labor, who works directly under the Secretary of Labor*), is essentially saying a predominant majority of the people the 2010 Census 'discovered' were "old people [they] had [previously] assumed died."

It's HILARIOUS in a sad way. And it's convenient, too, if their goal were to use statistics to minimize the reported rate of U3 ("Nawww, never, Ritholtz would doubt claim...never, ever...").

You see, it's a "bunch of old people" that they discovered, who are presumably too old to be counted for purposes of measuring the unemployment rate anyways.

That group of 'newly discovered people' did not include many "working aged, but unemployed people." No. /sarc

So it's all good.

LULZ.

*U.S. Department of Labor: Biography of Chief Economist Betsey Stevenson

[Disenchanted]

"Deep Capture"

which reminded me of this:

Deep Capture Blog

Deep Capture | The Story of Deep Capture | Deep Capture Blog

A story of greed and corrupt journalists, regulators, hedge funds, and investment banks. Stock market manipulation. Naked short selling.

What was the prevailing opinion here @ zerohedge when the Patrick Byrne/Overstock.com story first came out?

[Disenchanted]

TruthInSunshine

had said: "Deep Capture"

Here's a not so brief excerpt from that second link(The Story of Deep Capture) for those who may have never read it:

Cramer, who is a sociopath, owns TheStreet.com with Marty Peretz, who is an aristocrat. Peretz is also the former editor of the New Republic magazine. He dabbles in high finance and Harvard professing, which has resulted in his entrusting a large portion of his family fortune to a close-knit group of hedge fund managers, several of whom were his students. For example, Cramer was his student. Then Cramer was destitute. He lived in a car with a loaded gun hidden under the seat. Eventually, though, Peretz gave Cramer some money to start a hedge fund, which Cramer managed with celebrated ruthlessness until he resolved to seek spiritual enlightenment as a TV news host.

Cramer had originally planned to run his hedge fund out of the offices of Ivan Boesky. Shortly before he was to move in, however, the feds busted Boesky for insider trading, making him one of the most famous criminals of the 1980s. (This is not necessarily to suggest that Boesky is the “Sith Lord” mentioned in Patrick’s “Miscreants Ball” presentation. Some people have wagered that Patrick was referring to Michael Milken, a business colleague of Boesky known as the “junk bond king,” who also went to prison in the 1980s. Patrick has since modified the analogy, saying that the crime has multiple masterminds – “like Al Qaeda”).

When Boesky went to prison, Cramer worked instead with hedge fund manager Michael Steinhardt. The media portrays Steinhardt as a financial wizard, a deep thinker and an all-around swell guy. The truth is, he’s a thug who perfected the concept of trading on privileged information, and pounded it into the heads of his employees. “What’s your edge!?” he’d shout, pacing his trading room floor. “What’s your fucking edge!?” After one of Steinhardt’s tirades, a top employee (and the godfather to Steinhardt’s children) had a heart attack. It is said that Steinhardt showed no remorse.

Indeed, Steinhardt has one of the most fearsome reputations on Wall Street. Which is perhaps unsurprising given that Steinhardt’s father, Sol “Red” Steinhardt, was a mobster once described by a Manhattan district attorney as the biggest Mafia fence in America. Steinhardt Sr. worked for the Genovese organized crime family, with goons like Meyer Lansky and Vinnie “Blue Eyes” Alo, before he was sentenced to a number of years in Sing-Sing prison.

By Steinhardt Jr.’s own account, the principal partners in his first hedge fund were the Genovese Mafia, Ivan Boesky, Marty Peretz (the aristocrat who funded Cramer), and a man named Marc Rich. Rich is closely connected to Ronald Greenwald, described in the authoritative book Red Mafiya as the man who, along with the Genovese family, brought the Russian Mob to America.

In 1983, Rich was indicted for trading illegally with Iran while Islamic revolutionaries were holding the American embassy hostage in Tehran. Along with his associate, “Pinky” Green, he fled to Switzerland. In 2001, Steinhardt, a big-time operator in Democratic circles, convinced Bill Clinton to give Rich a scandalous presidential pardon, but Rich remains in Switzerland to avoid paying his tax bill.

In the early 1990s, Steinhardt shut down his hedge fund after he was implicated in a scheme to corner the U.S. treasuries market – a horrendous infraction with serious implications for the U.S. economy.

So this is a rough crowd. Says one Wall Street trader: “It was the day the bad guys came to town — when Steinhardt and his people arrived.”

One of Steinhardt’s people is Jim Cramer. Another is Cramer’s wife, who was known as the “Trading Goddess” when she worked as Steinhardt’s head trader. Maria Bartiromo, a CNBC anchor known as the “Money Honey,” is married to the top partner in Steinhardt’s newest hedge fund. (A former employee of Cramer’s hedge fund has written that Cramer often fed tips to the Money Honey, trading ahead of her stories, and it is rumored that she recruited him to CNBC.)

And then there is David Rocker, the short-selling hedge fund manager believed to be scheming, along with Cramer and Herb, with Gradient Analytics, the financial research shop under SEC investigation in 2006.

Cramer says he’s met Rocker only once – apparently while squeezing the grapefruit at some grocery store. But the truth is, Cramer knows Rocker well. Rocker is a former employee of Steinhardt’s hedge fund. He worked there at the same time as the Trading Goddess.

And, until recently, Rocker was the largest outside shareholder in Cramer’s website, TheStreet.com. Cramer sometimes quotes the hedge fund manager on his television show, and once interviewed him live. Rocker is also a regular writer for TheStreet.com, where he bashes stocks that Cramer subsequently also bashes in multiple stories on both the website and CNBC.

In February 2006, the SEC is investigating Gradient Analytics for disseminating false information about public companies. The agency has affidavits from former employees who say that Gradient’s “independent research” is produced by recent University of Arizona graduates who know little to nothing about finance and essentially take dictation from hedge fund managers, including David Rocker.

One of these employees says that Herb conspired with Rocker to hold his negative stories (premised on Gradient’s false information) until Rocker could establish short positions. This is called front-running – a jailable offense. It is reasonable to suspect that Rocker had similar relationships with TheStreet.com (of which he has owned a substantial portion) and other media.

Not long before Cramer announced his SEC subpoenas, Rocker sold all of his shares in TheStreet.com. Cramer sold around $2 million of his own shares. If Cramer knew about the SEC investigation before he sold his shares, which was almost certainly the case, he was trading on insider information – another jailable offense.

But Cramer don’t know nothin’ about nothin’. And Herb thinks the SEC investigation is an outrage. So Herb and Cramer have commandeered CNBC. They are live on CNBC. Herb has jabbered something about a conspiracy – a conspiracy to get Herb.

And now Cramer is going to show us something.

He’s pulled out a big, red magic marker. Veins are popping, rope-like, from his bald cranium. And he’s snarling. Cramer is actually snarling while he uses the big red magic marker to scribble something on a piece of paper.

He holds the paper up to the camera.

It’s…it’s his government subpoena…Cramer has vandalized his government subpoena! On live TV… in big red letters…

It says, “BULL!”

[Absinthe Minded]

So this is bad ?

[scatterbrains]

Or maybe those with privy information know that the politicians are going to let the tax breaks laps and decided to front load bonuses in the 2011 tax year causing a last minute spike in reciepts.

Do we know for sure that there's going to be an extension on income tax rates?

[qqqqtrader]

I'll prolly get beat up for this, but... Actually tax income has been rising about the same time unemployment started declining using NSA numbers, and a 12 month MA.

http://qqqqcharts.blogspot.com/

...about the SA population and employed/unemployed ratio/rate, that's a mess I may not dive into.

oh, DEC-11 tax receipts was $162,271,000,000,

https://www.fms.treas.gov/fmsweb/viewDTSFiles?dir=w&fname=11123000.txt

and for JAN-12 $158,745,000,000, which is less

https://www.fms.treas.gov/fmsweb/viewDTSFiles?dir=w&fname=12013100.txt

[Future Tense]

Barry Ritholz posted this article yesterday calling out Zero Hedge and Rick Santelli on their jobs data.  Any response Tyler or anyone else?

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/no-rick-santelli-and-zero-hedge-one-million-people-did-not-drop-out-of-the-labor-force-last-month/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

[Tyler Durden]

Did you even read the post you are commenting to?

[Reese Bobby]

There is a difference between reading and comprehending.

Obviously 2012 will be the year of cooked data.  I am content with that as gold will get donked at times and I want to own more.

[Cand-Hamz-Bitchez]

Back up the truck bitchez!

I wuv my precious goled!  At 1500, backed up the truck!  At 1900, I backed up the truck!  And now at 1750, I'm backing up the truck!!!!!

Here's some reasons why:
It's shiny!
It's a metal!
When the U.S. becomes Zimbabwe, I'll have more goled than you bitchez!

Sometimes when I'm all alone late at night, I like to pull out a little goled, and well, you know... with it.

[Sam Clemons]

Sometimes when I'm all alone late at night, I like to pull up my fiat digits on my online bank account and well, you know... with it.

[economics1996]

Sometimes late at night I pull out a tube of K-Y and well, you know...with it.

[Hman]

Blue Pills bitcheZ :)

[Future Tense]

I only read the first half and it made me think of the article.  Sorry, you are the greatest.

[hack3434]

This is all you need to know about Barry and how he perceives the world...Where is the Bubble - Gold or Credit? Also If you've read his stuff long enoguh, you will notice that he hops around depending on how the market is doing.  

[King_of_simpletons]

There are vested interests that want people to come back and play the casino a.k.a Stock Market and are upset that too many people have moved to cash and safer investments.  The media (Lou Dobbs included) says economy is doing great, as they have been instructed to propagate, by their Wall Street bosses and DC - to maintain a positive tone always. If the die hard fan reacts to this propaganda, the squid and the den of vipers can jump in and suck Main street dry.

[Cand-Hamz-Bitchez]

It's all a massive illuminati-Rothschild conspiracy, propagated by the lamestream media to drive down the prices of silver, so that they can buy all the silver!

Every time silver tanks, you can thank a squid~!

Those nasty squids.  I tried to fry them up and eat them, but they gave me heartburn! 

Here's what you do.  You take all your money out of the bank.  You buy gold with it.  Then you "hold physical" forever!  Put those things together with some beans and bullets, and wha-BAM!!

While 99.99999% of the Earth dies, you'll be safe under the porch with the three b's.  I know it seems crazy now, but just you wait!  The world will end, and you'll be the one with all the gold!  He who has the most gold wins, I like to say!

[Reese Bobby]

I will respect your satire if you promise to post here after your money disappears at whatever retard-o-trade brokerage firm you use.

[Cand-Hamz-Bitchez]

I will respect your satire if you promise to post here after your money disappears purchasing gold and you find it was merely a bubble, like dot com stocks and housing.

[Sam Clemons]

His comment wasn't satire.

But since you asked.
Exhibit A:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-r3K_TYfJo1c/TyRVKqe442I/AAAAAAAAByU/BPkI9KLWPR...

Exhibit B:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-UULH3vOiKzk/TyRan2npxZI/AAAAAAAABy8/xcoIkZzVhy...
Note the MZM (broad credit measure) increase of 1200%

Exhibit C:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-i3Se4Fv-MdE/Tv9efA9Ks2I/AAAAAAAABnQ/FUnTDA0IDc...
Note the real economy's energy usage increase of 25% since 1980. 

What is the bubble?

[Cand-Hamz-Bitchez]

Uh huh!  His post was like... SO a satire!  OMG!!  Lolcatz!!

Because past results DO indicate future performance!

Got it.

[Sam Clemons]

I'm no Bible man, but I do believe there is nothing new under the sun.

[Central Bankster]

So would you say those who held stocks/bonds in 1920s Germany did better than those who purchased gold coins?  Just curious.

[Cand-Hamz-Bitchez]

Did the economy in Germany improve after the 1920s? (yes)

Did everybody starve, lose everything, and die in the streets? (no, the economy was stronger than most of the world's in the 1930s)

Or did Germany grow into one of the best economies in the world, despite being leveled completely twice, AND having its currency hyperinflate? (Life goes on, sucka)

Do you think that the people who bought gold at artificially high levels were able to convert that gold into a high amount of Reichmarks? (no,)

[robobbob]

anyone holding weimar bonds got wiped out. as did those holding cash, or stocks of run of the mill companies

companies who could sit tight and could float their price structures with inflation did ok.

anyone who strategically traded their gold for assets at firesale prices made out like kings.

....and are you saying that the nazi miracle economic recovery based on a fascist police state, price and capital controls, massive military expeditures, bought with fraudulent, irredeemable bonds is a good model to follow? sorry, I would prefer eating spam and counting shiny metal than a rifle butt to the face followed by a free "shower".

[Village Idiot]

Is the bravo man really back?

[Problem Is]

You fuckin' new guys... :)

[Mr Lennon Hendrix]

Aren't we supposed to make 'em stand on the porch for a few days or sumpin'?

[francis_sawyer]

...with their dicks hanging out (if they stretch that far)...

[Reese Bobby]

Shut your cake hole you useless virgin dim-wit.  If this were a jail you would be wearing lipstick and sucking cock like a $5 whore. :(

[Cand-Hamz-Bitchez]

Sounds like you made the best of your time in the pen!

[economics1996]

Efficient allocation of resources.

[Cand-Hamz-Bitchez]

People could've given him five bucks, or given him a pack of Newports 1/20th at a time for the same price and gotten 20 bjs.

Those were the people turning lemons into lemonade!  Well, besides our friend above of course.

[slewie the pi-rat]

i haven't

yet.  i hope to later tho.  trust me!

i'm TR0LLING!

trolololling for gold and silver currencies in more states, BiCheZ!

States seek currencies made of silver and gold | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee

carry on!

[Yen Cross]

 Good on ya! Mr. Grumpy  just watch next week. BOGUS #'s are hard to trade against S/T. The truth will reveal.

[GeneMarchbanks]

'Good on ya!'

Do you by chance consume vegemite?

[Yen Cross]

Keep the Great posts coming! I like you ,Mr. March Banks.

[resurger]

Barry troll bruh!

[knukles]

Gracefully done, Mr. Durden.

[Cand-Hamz-Bitchez]

"Becuz I ain't have no job, ain't nobody is be getting jobz!"

Of course, I'm still waiting for the Dow 500 predictions I see here weekly.

[francis_sawyer]

You must think you're at the Prechter blog...

[Uber Vandal]

"Of course, I'm still waiting for the Dow 500 predictions I see here weekly."

Change Dow to S&P, and once the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) drops below 600, we may very well hit that.

Much like how the BDI dropped to about 670 in Dec. 2008, and by March, 2009, the S&P hit about 670.

As of this Friday, Feb. 3, 2012, the BDI was 647, or an all time low in its 25 year history.

But, of course, the BDI is an outdated index that only matters when it is going up.

[Element]

You've kicked arse yet again Tyler. 

A peek-a-boo behind the statistical curtain of eternal mysteries into the economic Holiest of Holies ... and what's in there? ... fuck-all.

Thanks for that.

[disabledvet]

no. in fact i never read what is written here because i am blind. (how's my spelling btw?) having said that "i have heard Mr. Bond does read everything you right and he's a ordered a shit-sandwich to be delivered to the interpreter of the BLS." What? What? You want the truth????
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UXoNE14U_zM&feature=player_detailpage

[slewie the pi-rat]

i'm w/ reese_bobby!  this is fuking awesome tyler! 

you had me at "...the divergence between the Nonadjusted January number of the establishment survey of any given year and the Unadjusted number."

so i put slices of "cutie" tangerines in my nostrils and wondered if i'd remember to listen to the game, tomorrow... i got thru the christmas candles...

ok!   look!  THE KICKER(!):  hahaha!  this is really xlnt!  5 momos!  biderman's coke secret!

..."population control effects"  L0L!!!  smooth!

tyler has risen to the challenge and kicked some assumptive/reporting ass, here, BiCheZ!

• tyler >>> 1
• bls > >>> 0

[JW n FL]

Max Keiser interviews Dan Collins from thechinamoneyreport.com. He talks about the big news coming from China in the past few weeks, which is that the investment demand for gold and silver is going up.China's Yuan / Renminbi has 1,200% Leverage per Yuan / Renminbi as of last May. The U.S. Dollar has 120% Leverage. China looks good only because China services it's own debt load.. thru building empty City's.. 7 to 12 empty City's a year are built to service the China's Debt

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=KWC7O2m_H5s

Do you think this guy could say Thanks to Tyler or me for the numbers and exact quote?

Damn why not just clip and paste what I say all over the internet?

OOPS! they already do!! LOL!!

Signed, Christian Constitutionalist

P.S. dont forget! See Something? Say Something! http://www.dhs.gov/files/reportincidents/see-something-say-something.shtm

DHS Home Grown Christians Trying to Protect the Constitution are now Terrorists Propaganda

http://www.fas.org/irp/eprint/rightwing.pdf

[Waterfallsparkles]

Even Rick Santelli on CNBC quotes Zero Hedge and their numbers but at least he gives them cedit.  Although, there are times I have watched Mack Keizer and he also gives credit to Zero Hedge.

More and More people on Wall Street are following the Blog.  Zero Hedge moves the market more than CNBC at times.  Plus, they are a step ahead.  So, if you read Zero Hedge you can adjust your postions sometimes ahead of Wall Street.

TYLER IS ONE OF THE BEST ECONOMIC REPORTERS THERE IS.  HE IS UNPARALLED IN THE NEWS AND TV SPACE.

[Element]

From your last pdf link ... posted by FAS ... and good on 'em for bringing this slimmy US Govt Gestapo-esque shit and absurd over-reactions, into general public awareness:

http://www.fas.org/irp/eprint/rightwing.pdf

(U) Scope
(U//FOUO) This product is one of a series of intelligence assessments published by the Extremism and Radicalization Branch to facilitate a greater understanding of the phenomenon of violent radicalization in the United States. The information is provided to federal, state, local, and tribal counterterrorism and law enforcement officials so they may effectively deter, prevent, preempt, or respond to terrorist attacks against the United States. Federal efforts to influence domestic public opinion must be conducted in an overt and transparent manner, clearly identifying United States Government sponsorship.

A "greater understanding of the phenomenon", ... or so they say.

And then they go one to say how they are going to crush it, using extremist radicalised anti-social violence, against US citizens.

Pot-Kettle-Black

And all passed-off as 'Law Enforcement' ... of course.

And not a word in the intro about why have given up on official means of redress, or the total break-down in the US Justice system? 

And it has this stamped all over it:

"UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY" 

i.e. they could not get away with 'classifying' it, but you're still not supposed to see it, nor what they are cooking up.

--

EDIT: I noticed this definition within the foot notes:

* (U) Rightwing extremism in the United States can be broadly divided into those groups, movements, and adherents that are primarily hate-oriented (based on hatred of particular religious, racial or ethnic groups), and those that are mainly antigovernment, rejecting federal authority in favor of state or local authority, or rejecting government authority entirely. It may include groups and individuals that are dedicated to a single issue, such as opposition to abortion or immigration.

— (U//FOUO) Returning veterans possess combat skills and experience that are attractive to rightwing extremists. DHS/I&A is concerned that rightwing extremists will attempt to recruit and radicalize returning veterans in order to boost their violent capabilities.

Look out Ron Paul ... and zh ... and almost everyone else ... you radical right-wing extremists, you ... oh fuck it, you're all just terrorists anyway, so have no rights ... send in the drones!

I can't even imagine why a returning veteran might have some issues with the ultra-extreme, ultra-violent, ultra-ideologically-radicalised, ultra-lying, ultra-corrupt, ultra-thieving Washington circus, that pretends to be a representative democracy ... so you veterans must be watched most closely for signs of treachery ... for you pose a threat to national sickurity. 

You know the system is done for when they're this worried about domestic insurrection(s). 

DHS/I&A assesses this trend is likely to accelerate if the economy is perceived to worsen.

i.e. it's all about perception control bitchez ... the stats must be tinkered with.

[Reese Bobby]

Never utter my name again you genetic mistake of a rotten scum-bag. YMSD.

[Cand-Hamz-Bitchez]

Why, are you like, the Candyman or something?!

Oh no!!

[e2thex]

.

[Atomizer]

Hello Harry Wanker. You posted that bullshit on MW yesterday.

[fonzannoon]

Does this post in itself not qualify as a response?

Hello? Is this thing on?

[francis_sawyer]

Just a douchebag from 'Fuzzmaster 2000's' blog probably trying to stir up page hits now that the whole site is down to a couple of schoolteachers & Doug Kass...

[Cand-Hamz-Bitchez]

That Doug Kass sure is dreamy.  Sometimes I like to pretend his surname doesn't start with a K.  Rawr...

[francis_sawyer]

as soon as you pass muster with the "IN" crowd... They'll let you call him "Doug-a-Doodle"...

[Cand-Hamz-Bitchez]

If that doesn't make me horny I don't know <i>what</i> does!

[francis_sawyer]

Well... speaking of 'tools', there's a button you can use to italicize things whereby you are spared having to construct HTML tags...

[Cand-Hamz-Bitchez]

And my HTML tags don't work!!

What is this???  Russia?

[Non Passaran]

Click on Disable rich text and they will. If you are outside of Russia.

[Dr. Engali]

Barry who?

[resurger]

Barry Whaaaaaaaaat!

[TruthInSunshine]

Future Tense - Ritholtz is just plain wrong.

If he has any deceny, he'll basically come forward with a public mea culpa.

The January 2012 BLS U3 report was probably the most flawed one in decades.

It essentially dumped 10 years worth of U.S. population/demographic revisions into a single month, which was the baseline aggregate number that the BLS started from in computing its reported U3 figure.

December to January % changes in reported U3 are inherently flawed and seriously misleading. This year's was infinitely more so (or, at least 1000% more so).

[Reese Bobby]

Ritholtz ate Quogue.

[SDRII]

Ritholtz financial "analysis" is like opting for brain surgery from a  mechanic. Stick to recommending Itunes Barry

[francis_sawyer]

I kno right?... At least ROBOT TRADER has the decency to make a post 'the day after' a stock moved... It takes the other guy a whole fucking week before he makes an announcement that they miraculously 'trimmed their positions' a few days before a meltdown...

[lizzy36]

He is like others, revisionist history serves him best.

Unless his PnL in in real time, i trust him as much as i trust a religious guru selling me his wisdom and truth. 

Attacking ZH is what gets him page clicks. Disagree with him and he tosses you. Last I checked if one position doesn't stand the test of critics, it is not worth the toliet paper his are written on.

[francis_sawyer]

Attacking ZH is what gets him page clicks. Disagree with him and he tosses you...

That sums it all up right there... (& of course, he cherishes his party invitations during the Hamptons summer season)...

[hack3434]

http://traffic.alexa.com/graph?&w=400&h=220&o=f&c=1&y=t&b=ffffff&n=666666&r=2y&u=zerohedge.com&&u=http://www.ritholtz.com/&

[francis_sawyer]

If he has any deceny, he'll basically come forward with a public mea culpa.

That arrogant prick? Good luck with that...

[Cult_of_Reason]

Ritholt is an arrogant and clueless cacasodo (an arrogant asshole that thinks his feces doesn't stink).

[Cand-Hamz-Bitchez]

So why didn't you just type "Ritholt is an arrogant and clueless asshole that thinks his feces doesn't stink?"

Why'd you have to bring in calling him it in Spanish?  Are you the fucking Rosetta Stone, or what?

[francis_sawyer]

I'm just taking a wild guess, but it might have been for the benefit of the mother who abandoned you at birth...

Juanita CandIDA-HamzAPATA-Bitchez-Ramirez

[Cand-Hamz-Bitchez]

My mother doesn't post here.  She cleans the rooms at the Holiday Inn Express for 8.25 an hour.

[Cult_of_Reason]

First, I am not the fucking or not-fucking Rosetta Stone.

Second, Ritholtz is an arrogant and clueless cacasodo.

Third, it is not Spanish, it is in Italian (from the verb cacare [defecate] and adjective sodo [hard]).

Fourth, English is a very poor language that does not allow accurately to describe different types of assholes in one word – asshole word does not accurately describe an individual who is not only an asshole but also an arrogant with inflated self esteem smart-ass (the one who thinks he defecates wisdom – cacasenno).

Fifth, Ritholtz is an arrogant and clueless cacasodo.

Sixth, Ritholtz is a hardcore liberal ideologue with stupendous faith in the government who is disguising himself as a libertarian.

Seventh, Ritholtz is a morbitly obese individual who is excessively obsessed with his below average size pennis (piccolo cazzone coglione).

Eighth, did I mention that Ritholtz is an arrogant and clueless cacasodo?

[francis_sawyer]

hai detto perfettamente

[GFKjunior]

I read the comments on that article and could not help but laughing out loud.

So lost in their labels and ideology with sentences like " the only " the only crusader side is new keynesian/neoclassical/supply sider element"

 Sure buddy, it's all a matter of having a PHD from the "proper" school.

[GeneMarchbanks]

Is Barry i) trying to get some exposure ii) getting a payday to spew garbage or iii) a Newt fan.

[Everybodys All ...]

Barry Ritholz is one of the biggest asses on the net. Try posting on his blog something he doesn't agree with and you will find that he simply deletes it. Ritholz is the typical perma bull that Wall St. has always been and you will find no help from him when things all of a sudden go south.

[resurger]

I can imagine the amount of Hate he has for the ZH's...

[Cand-Hamz-Bitchez]

So don't go to his blog.