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Explaining Yesterday's Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Payroll "Beat"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Since there still is confusion regarding yesterday's whopping "surge" in non-farm payrolls, which represented a 243K jump in the Establishment survey (of which 490K was temp jobs, same as in the Household Survey where temp jobs soared by a record 699K), yet only to arrive at an employment number last seen ten years ago, when the US population was about 30 million lower (think about that: 30 million increase in population and no change in the total employed), here is the final explanation of what happened yesterday.

As everyone knows by now, January is when the BLS imposes its annual seasonal adjustment revision (more on that in a second) for the previous January-December period. What this manifests itself most directly in, is the divergence between the Nonadjusted January number of the establishment survey of any given year and the Unadjusted number. And while the January adjustment is always substantial, it is the fact that the so-called beat was entirely based on assumptions that makes yesterday's NFP number so meaningless, and hardly the basis to assume that the US economy has taken off.

The chart below shows the adjusted and unadjusted employment survey data for total Nonfarm Employees. The annual January overadjustment is more than evident. Just as evident are the subsequent under-adjustments as seasonal data is lowered to account for volatility in the NSA data. What is very notable is that in January, absent BLS smoothing calculation, which are nowhere in the labor force, but solely in the mind of a few BLS employees, the real economy lost 2,689,000 jobs, while net of the adjustment, it actually gained 243,000 jobs: a delta of 2,932,000 jobs based solely on statistical assumptions in an excel spreadsheet!

So how does this data fit in specifically in the context of the just passed NFP whopper of a number? Simple. The chart below shows the January seasonal adjustment for the past 4 years, since 2009. The number of jobs added for "seasonal" purposes to the NFP number were as follows: 2009 - 2,006,000; 2010 - 1,970,000; 2011 - 2,129,000, and the all important 2012: 2,146,000. Once again, this is the number added to the NFP unrevised baseline to get a "final" number which is then blasted to the media. The chart below shows the historical January adjustment, to the NFP data, as well as the 2012 reported adjustment, and also what the statistical adjustment would be for the NFP number to have the NFP number come in line with expectations of a 140,000 beat.

Here is the kicker: the market mood yesterday would have been far more somber if instead of a seasonal fudge-factored statistical addition of 2,146,000 jobs, the BLS had decided on a number that is merely the simple average of the statistical adjustment of the past 3 years, which comes down to 2,035,000. In fact, had the BLS used this seasonal adjustment, the final NFP headline number (SA) would have been +132,000, or a miss of expectations of 8,000 (the Seasonal Adjustment number to get to consensus January expectations would have to be +2,043,000 to the NFP number). In other words, the difference between a + and - 2% move in the stock market is based on less than a 5% variation to the entire January seasonal adjustment, as had the BLS add just the simple average, the BLS report would have been a disappointing miss, and the market would have likely dropped (although with 5 momos in charge of the entire market, the thesis would have likely promptly shifted to "more QE coming" so who really knows). And now you know how the BLS' seasonal adjustment, which as Charles Biderman pointed out yesterday is guarded as secretly as Coke's recipe, defined the tone and the mood of the market for at least one month.

Finally, as to some newsletter and namesdropping blogs allegation that the Labor Force did not, in fact, increase by 1.2 million in January, we have one simple question: just how does one "refute" a statement with an assumption? Because last we checked, the BLS did not provide a smoothing breakdown of how it applied its seasonal adjustment for the "population control effects" which saw the population increase by 1.7 million in January and those not in the labor force rose by 1.2 million. Quite the contrary , what the BLS did provide is Table C: "December 2011-January 2012 changes in selected labor force measures, with adjustments for population control effects" which does show how on an apples to apples basis the adjustment factors did in fact impact the two key components in determining the unemployment rate: the amount of Americans employed, and those not in the labor force.

And while one can try to say it is inconceivable to say that the US population jumped by 1.7 million in one month, we reply that this is coming from the BLS whose admission of the "population control effect" adjustment merely confirms that it has been misrepresenting the actual labor force participation rate for at least a year. In other words, while one may pander to semantics, and believe that a data series is not a data series because of one's mastery of sophistry and assumptions, this is totally irrelevant: the end result is that in January, those "not in the labor force" did in fact rise by 1.2 million (whether compared to December or to 2011 - please, go ahead and check as many times as needed), and the labor force participation rate dropped to a new 30 year low of 63.7%, a number which incidentally only has to drop by 5% more percent for the BLS to report zero, or even a negative, unemployment rate

 


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Sat, 02/04/2012 - 14:57 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

+8.3

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:14 | Link to Comment Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

I think Biderman is a bit wacked. He bases his case on withholding tax data up until the end of December but Adler in another ZH article shows the graph right through January in which taxes clearly spike in that month until the last week:

Adler: "The real time Federal Withholding Tax daily data for January, which I dutifully cover each week in the Treasury updates, showed a massive surge beginning in late December."

Adler surmises that there could have been a large amount of money in bonuses and sales commissions paid out in that time leading the BLS to interpret this, accidently or on purpose, as being from an increase in employment rather than from higher pay for some.

 

 

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/deconstructing-massive-beat-employment-data    

 

 

 

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:43 | Link to Comment onebir
onebir's picture

"Adler surmises that there could have been a large amount of money in bonuses and sales commissions paid out in that time leading the BLS to interpret this, accidently or on purpose, as being from an increase in employment rather than from higher pay for some."

But Biderman berates the BLS uses a survey & not taking the real time withholding tax data into account (perhaps because they don't have a good way to disentangle employment, hours, bonuses etc)

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:45 | Link to Comment Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Biderman says the BLS doesn't use real time tax data to report real time wages and jobs to get an accurate count for a year but he also says nobody he knows has a clue as to how BLS comes up with the seasonal adjustments so Adler apparently believes that the BLS does see the tax figures and uses them in their estimation of the seasonal adjustments.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:06 | Link to Comment economics1996
economics1996's picture

According to the BLS the CLFPR is 63.4% for January 2012, the lowest since February 1984, 28 years.  Sloppy.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:33 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Anyone who doesn't understand that is worse than 1979 through 1983 - WAY worse, is comatose.

Back then, an energy/oil crisis shocked the economy that was already reeling from high interest rates and inflation, and produced a cyclical downturn.

The plants/factories weren't relocated offshore, however, and the jobs were not automated, and when Volcker came in and broke the back of inflation by raising interest rates even higher, people and businesses regained their confidence and the displaced workers went right back to work at their old jobs (with higher pay).

The 12 million jobs lost in the last decade are never coming back, and once the FIRE economy that has corresponded with the crack up credit/debt leveraging cycle that is the primary reason the U.S. saw nominal GDP growth for the last 30 years fully breaks (and that process is already underway thanks to the tsunami of deleveraging that's also underway), the true extent of the structural damage to the American (and many other developed nations) economy will be all too evident to even the formerly comatose sheep.

As far as blame is concerned, Wall Street had a huge hand in bringing these problems about, as they purchased the political leadership of the U.S. (hello Barney Frank, Newt Gingrich, Bush, Obama, Cantor, Pelosi, et al), but they were far from the only force doing damage - unions, government bloat, welfare state mentality, a sense of privilege and divine entitlement, mortgage brokers and real estate gone wild, sell side anal-cysts in the financial sector, and instant gratification, loan devouring consumers all contributed.

Deep Capture, unchecked greed, a lack of leadership acting in the national best interest and cultural rot (Jerry Springer, Dancing with the Stars, iAnything, Jersey Shore, Real Housewives, epicly bad schools and parenting, Big Brother SNAP card dependence), and a ravenous, resource sucking Military-Industrial-Financial Complex fed by Crony Capitalism has firmly set this nation on a collision course with the mountain side.

For anyone wondering what the future course will look like, look to the past, and SSDD is the answer, which means debasement of living standards which serves as centrifugal force to reinforce all the above-mentioned problems besetting this (and other) developed nations - here are 2 simple charts that showsthe gameplan (gee, I wonder what the government and esteemed Federal Reserve will do to 'fix' things?):

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-nrPYyjgVL4M/TjJC5QI_YYI/AAAAAAAAAmo/dOWtVTiPtx...

https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-wHrUTYZRMUE/TX7M_RQo9LI/AAAAAAAAAog/C...

Competitive Currency Devaluation (Part 1)
Sat, 02/04/2012 - 21:13 | Link to Comment Thomas
Thomas's picture

I think he is referring to Ritholtz as the blowhard blogger.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 22:09 | Link to Comment scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

fuk the BLS I use a proprietory HQI (hooker quality index) gleaned from the nyc craigslist postings and judging by the quality of the women joining the hooker work force I can assure you that the economy is still falling off a cliff.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 23:29 | Link to Comment Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

So Truth, Do you think all of those new participants they found from the census will now be adjusted for the US GNP. These twisters of facts cannot deny more people are around and that lowers the end result, substantially.

Oh thats right they swaped to GDP in 1991 so they can fiddly them offshore 

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 11:37 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

It's timely that you raised this point -and I should've posted this days ago (I would have, had I known about it), but here is the explanation from of the BLS's Betsey Stevenson as to why the numbers came out as they did:

"There was not a big increase in discouraged workers," economist Betsey Stevenson (Betsey Stevenson, the chief economist at the Department of Labor, who works directly under the Secretary of Labor*) commented on Twitter. "What happened was Census found a bunch of old people we had assumed died." [The Wall Street Journal, 2/3/12]

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/02/03/whats-behind-the-unemployment-...

Okay, so Betsey Stevenson (Betsey Stevenson, the chief economist at the Department of Labor, who works directly under the Secretary of Labor*), is essentially saying a predominant majority of the people the 2010 Census 'discovered' were "old people [they] had [previously] assumed died."

It's HILARIOUS in a sad way. And it's convenient, too, if their goal were to use statistics to minimize the reported rate of U3 ("Nawww, never, Ritholtz would doubt claim...never, ever...").

You see, it's a "bunch of old people" that they discovered, who are presumably too old to be counted for purposes of measuring the unemployment rate anyways.

That group of 'newly discovered people' did not include many "working aged, but unemployed people." No. /sarc

So it's all good.

LULZ.

 

*U.S. Department of Labor: Biography of Chief Economist Betsey Stevenson

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 10:03 | Link to Comment Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

"Deep Capture"

 

which reminded me of this:

 

Deep Capture Blog

 

Deep Capture | The Story of Deep Capture | Deep Capture Blog

A story of greed and corrupt journalists, regulators, hedge funds, and investment banks. Stock market manipulation. Naked short selling.
What was the prevailing opinion here @ zerohedge when the Patrick Byrne/Overstock.com story first came out?

 

 

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 10:44 | Link to Comment Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

 

TruthInSunshine

had said: "Deep Capture"

 

Here's a not so brief excerpt from that second link(The Story of Deep Capture) for those who may have never read it:

 

Cramer, who is a sociopath, owns TheStreet.com with Marty Peretz, who is an aristocrat. Peretz is also the former editor of the New Republic magazine. He dabbles in high finance and Harvard professing, which has resulted in his entrusting a large portion of his family fortune to a close-knit group of hedge fund managers, several of whom were his students. For example, Cramer was his student. Then Cramer was destitute. He lived in a car with a loaded gun hidden under the seat. Eventually, though, Peretz gave Cramer some money to start a hedge fund, which Cramer managed with celebrated ruthlessness until he resolved to seek spiritual enlightenment as a TV news host.

 

Cramer had originally planned to run his hedge fund out of the offices of Ivan Boesky. Shortly before he was to move in, however, the feds busted Boesky for insider trading, making him one of the most famous criminals of the 1980s. (This is not necessarily to suggest that Boesky is the “Sith Lord” mentioned in Patrick’s “Miscreants Ball” presentation. Some people have wagered that Patrick was referring to Michael Milken, a business colleague of Boesky known as the “junk bond king,” who also went to prison in the 1980s. Patrick has since modified the analogy, saying that the crime has multiple masterminds – “like Al Qaeda”).

 

When Boesky went to prison, Cramer worked instead with hedge fund manager Michael Steinhardt. The media portrays Steinhardt as a financial wizard, a deep thinker and an all-around swell guy. The truth is, he’s a thug who perfected the concept of trading on privileged information, and pounded it into the heads of his employees. “What’s your edge!?” he’d shout, pacing his trading room floor. “What’s your fucking edge!?” After one of Steinhardt’s tirades, a top employee (and the godfather to Steinhardt’s children) had a heart attack. It is said that Steinhardt showed no remorse.

 

Indeed, Steinhardt has one of the most fearsome reputations on Wall Street. Which is perhaps unsurprising given that Steinhardt’s father, Sol “Red” Steinhardt, was a mobster once described by a Manhattan district attorney as the biggest Mafia fence in America. Steinhardt Sr. worked for the Genovese organized crime family, with goons like Meyer Lansky and Vinnie “Blue Eyes” Alo, before he was sentenced to a number of years in Sing-Sing prison.

 

By Steinhardt Jr.’s own account, the principal partners in his first hedge fund were the Genovese Mafia, Ivan Boesky, Marty Peretz (the aristocrat who funded Cramer), and a man named Marc Rich. Rich is closely connected to Ronald Greenwald, described in the authoritative book Red Mafiya as the man who, along with the Genovese family, brought the Russian Mob to America.

 

In 1983, Rich was indicted for trading illegally with Iran while Islamic revolutionaries were holding the American embassy hostage in Tehran. Along with his associate, “Pinky” Green, he fled to Switzerland. In 2001, Steinhardt, a big-time operator in Democratic circles, convinced Bill Clinton to give Rich a scandalous presidential pardon, but Rich remains in Switzerland to avoid paying his tax bill.

 

In the early 1990s, Steinhardt shut down his hedge fund after he was implicated in a scheme to corner the U.S. treasuries market – a horrendous infraction with serious implications for the U.S. economy.

 

So this is a rough crowd. Says one Wall Street trader: “It was the day the bad guys came to town — when Steinhardt and his people arrived.”

 

One of Steinhardt’s people is Jim Cramer. Another is Cramer’s wife, who was known as the “Trading Goddess” when she worked as Steinhardt’s head trader. Maria Bartiromo, a CNBC anchor known as the “Money Honey,” is married to the top partner in Steinhardt’s newest hedge fund. (A former employee of Cramer’s hedge fund has written that Cramer often fed tips to the Money Honey, trading ahead of her stories, and it is rumored that she recruited him to CNBC.)

 

And then there is David Rocker, the short-selling hedge fund manager believed to be scheming, along with Cramer and Herb, with Gradient Analytics, the financial research shop under SEC investigation in 2006.

 

Cramer says he’s met Rocker only once – apparently while squeezing the grapefruit at some grocery store. But the truth is, Cramer knows Rocker well. Rocker is a former employee of Steinhardt’s hedge fund. He worked there at the same time as the Trading Goddess.

 

And, until recently, Rocker was the largest outside shareholder in Cramer’s website, TheStreet.com. Cramer sometimes quotes the hedge fund manager on his television show, and once interviewed him live. Rocker is also a regular writer for TheStreet.com, where he bashes stocks that Cramer subsequently also bashes in multiple stories on both the website and CNBC.

 

In February 2006, the SEC is investigating Gradient Analytics for disseminating false information about public companies. The agency has affidavits from former employees who say that Gradient’s “independent research” is produced by recent University of Arizona graduates who know little to nothing about finance and essentially take dictation from hedge fund managers, including David Rocker.

 

One of these employees says that Herb conspired with Rocker to hold his negative stories (premised on Gradient’s false information) until Rocker could establish short positions. This is called front-running – a jailable offense. It is reasonable to suspect that Rocker had similar relationships with TheStreet.com (of which he has owned a substantial portion) and other media.

 

Not long before Cramer announced his SEC subpoenas, Rocker sold all of his shares in TheStreet.com. Cramer sold around $2 million of his own shares. If Cramer knew about the SEC investigation before he sold his shares, which was almost certainly the case, he was trading on insider information – another jailable offense.

 

But Cramer don’t know nothin’ about nothin’. And Herb thinks the SEC investigation is an outrage. So Herb and Cramer have commandeered CNBC. They are live on CNBC. Herb has jabbered something about a conspiracy – a conspiracy to get Herb.

 

And now Cramer is going to show us something.

 

He’s pulled out a big, red magic marker. Veins are popping, rope-like, from his bald cranium. And he’s snarling. Cramer is actually snarling while he uses the big red magic marker to scribble something on a piece of paper.

 

He holds the paper up to the camera.

 

It’s…it’s his government subpoena…Cramer has vandalized his government subpoena! On live TV… in big red letters…

 

It says, “BULL!”

 

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 10:54 | Link to Comment Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

So this is bad ?

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:42 | Link to Comment scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Or maybe those with privy information know that the politicians are going to let the tax breaks laps and decided to front load bonuses in the 2011 tax year causing a last minute spike in reciepts.

Do we know for sure that there's going to be an extension on income tax rates?

 

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 19:33 | Link to Comment qqqqtrader
qqqqtrader's picture

I'll prolly get beat up for this, but... Actually tax income has been rising about the same time unemployment started declining using NSA numbers, and a 12 month MA.

http://qqqqcharts.blogspot.com/

...about the SA population and employed/unemployed ratio/rate, that's a mess I may not dive into.

oh, DEC-11 tax receipts was $162,271,000,000,

https://www.fms.treas.gov/fmsweb/viewDTSFiles?dir=w&fname=11123000.txt

and for JAN-12 $158,745,000,000, which is less

https://www.fms.treas.gov/fmsweb/viewDTSFiles?dir=w&fname=12013100.txt

 

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:19 | Link to Comment Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Did you even read the post you are commenting to?

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:29 | Link to Comment Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

There is a difference between reading and comprehending.

 

Obviously 2012 will be the year of cooked data.  I am content with that as gold will get donked at times and I want to own more.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:26 | Link to Comment Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

Back up the truck bitchez!

I wuv my precious goled!  At 1500, backed up the truck!  At 1900, I backed up the truck!  And now at 1750, I'm backing up the truck!!!!!

Here's some reasons why:
It's shiny!
It's a metal!
When the U.S. becomes Zimbabwe, I'll have more goled than you bitchez!

Sometimes when I'm all alone late at night, I like to pull out a little goled, and well, you know... with it.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 19:45 | Link to Comment Sam Clemons
Sam Clemons's picture

Sometimes when I'm all alone late at night, I like to pull up my fiat digits on my online bank account and well, you know... with it.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:14 | Link to Comment economics1996
economics1996's picture

Sometimes late at night I pull out a tube of K-Y and well, you know...with it.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 22:08 | Link to Comment Hman
Hman's picture

Blue Pills bitcheZ :)

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:29 | Link to Comment Future Tense
Future Tense's picture

I only read the first half and it made me think of the article.  Sorry, you are the greatest.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:47 | Link to Comment hack3434
hack3434's picture

This is all you need to know about Barry and how he perceives the world...Where is the Bubble - Gold or Credit? Also If you've read his stuff long enoguh, you will notice that he hops around depending on how the market is doing.  

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:23 | Link to Comment King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

There are vested interests that want people to come back and play the casino a.k.a Stock Market and are upset that too many people have moved to cash and safer investments.  The media (Lou Dobbs included) says economy is doing great, as they have been instructed to propagate, by their Wall Street bosses and DC - to maintain a positive tone always. If the die hard fan reacts to this propaganda, the squid and the den of vipers can jump in and suck Main street dry.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:49 | Link to Comment Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

It's all a massive illuminati-Rothschild conspiracy, propagated by the lamestream media to drive down the prices of silver, so that they can buy all the silver!

Every time silver tanks, you can thank a squid~!

Those nasty squids.  I tried to fry them up and eat them, but they gave me heartburn! 

Here's what you do.  You take all your money out of the bank.  You buy gold with it.  Then you "hold physical" forever!  Put those things together with some beans and bullets, and wha-BAM!!

While 99.99999% of the Earth dies, you'll be safe under the porch with the three b's.  I know it seems crazy now, but just you wait!  The world will end, and you'll be the one with all the gold!  He who has the most gold wins, I like to say!

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:44 | Link to Comment Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

I will respect your satire if you promise to post here after your money disappears at whatever retard-o-trade brokerage firm you use.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 19:55 | Link to Comment Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

I will respect your satire if you promise to post here after your money disappears purchasing gold and you find it was merely a bubble, like dot com stocks and housing.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:18 | Link to Comment Sam Clemons
Sam Clemons's picture

His comment wasn't satire.

But since you asked.
Exhibit A:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-r3K_TYfJo1c/TyRVKqe442I/AAAAAAAAByU/BPkI9KLWPR...

Exhibit B:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-UULH3vOiKzk/TyRan2npxZI/AAAAAAAABy8/xcoIkZzVhy...
Note the MZM (broad credit measure) increase of 1200%

Exhibit C:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-i3Se4Fv-MdE/Tv9efA9Ks2I/AAAAAAAABnQ/FUnTDA0IDc...
Note the real economy's energy usage increase of 25% since 1980. 

What is the bubble?

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:19 | Link to Comment Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

Uh huh!  His post was like... SO a satire!  OMG!!  Lolcatz!!

Because past results DO indicate future performance!

Got it.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:21 | Link to Comment Sam Clemons
Sam Clemons's picture

I'm no Bible man, but I do believe there is nothing new under the sun.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:15 | Link to Comment Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

So would you say those who held stocks/bonds in 1920s Germany did better than those who purchased gold coins?  Just curious.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:23 | Link to Comment Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

Did the economy in Germany improve after the 1920s? (yes)

Did everybody starve, lose everything, and die in the streets? (no, the economy was stronger than most of the world's in the 1930s)

Or did Germany grow into one of the best economies in the world, despite being leveled completely twice, AND having its currency hyperinflate? (Life goes on, sucka)

Do you think that the people who bought gold at artificially high levels were able to convert that gold into a high amount of Reichmarks? (no,)

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 22:00 | Link to Comment robobbob
robobbob's picture

anyone holding weimar bonds got wiped out. as did those holding cash, or stocks of run of the mill companies

companies who could sit tight and could float their price structures with inflation did ok.

anyone who strategically traded their gold for assets at firesale prices made out like kings.

....and are you saying that the nazi miracle economic recovery based on a fascist police state, price and capital controls, massive military expeditures, bought with fraudulent, irredeemable bonds is a good model to follow? sorry, I would prefer eating spam and counting shiny metal than a rifle butt to the face followed by a free "shower".

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 21:17 | Link to Comment Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

Is the bravo man really back?

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:19 | Link to Comment Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

You fuckin' new guys... :)

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:11 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Aren't we supposed to make 'em stand on the porch for a few days or sumpin'?

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:22 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

...with their dicks hanging out (if they stretch that far)...

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:50 | Link to Comment Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

Shut your cake hole you useless virgin dim-wit.  If this were a jail you would be wearing lipstick and sucking cock like a $5 whore. :(

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 19:56 | Link to Comment Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

Sounds like you made the best of your time in the pen!

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:16 | Link to Comment economics1996
economics1996's picture

Efficient allocation of resources.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:27 | Link to Comment Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

People could've given him five bucks, or given him a pack of Newports 1/20th at a time for the same price and gotten 20 bjs.

Those were the people turning lemons into lemonade!  Well, besides our friend above of course.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:08 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i haven't

yet.  i hope to later tho.  trust me!

i'm TR0LLING!

trolololling for gold and silver currencies in more states, BiCheZ!

States seek currencies made of silver and gold | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee

carry on!

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:17 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Good on ya! Mr. Grumpy  just watch next week. BOGUS #'s are hard to trade against S/T. The truth will reveal.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:22 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

'Good on ya!'

Do you by chance consume vegemite?

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:33 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Keep the Great posts coming! I like you ,Mr. March Banks.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:25 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

Barry troll bruh!

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:27 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Gracefully done, Mr. Durden.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:29 | Link to Comment Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

"Becuz I ain't have no job, ain't nobody is be getting jobz!"

Of course, I'm still waiting for the Dow 500 predictions I see here weekly.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:24 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

You must think you're at the Prechter blog...

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 05:23 | Link to Comment Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

"Of course, I'm still waiting for the Dow 500 predictions I see here weekly."

Change Dow to S&P, and once the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) drops below 600, we may very well hit that.

Much like how the BDI dropped to about 670 in Dec. 2008, and by March, 2009, the S&P hit about 670.

As of this Friday, Feb. 3, 2012, the BDI was 647, or an all time low in its 25 year history.

But, of course, the BDI is an outdated index that only matters when it is going up.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 19:32 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

You've kicked arse yet again Tyler. 

A peek-a-boo behind the statistical curtain of eternal mysteries into the economic Holiest of Holies ... and what's in there? ... fuck-all.

Thanks for that.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:38 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

no. in fact i never read what is written here because i am blind. (how's my spelling btw?) having said that "i have heard Mr. Bond does read everything you right and he's a ordered a shit-sandwich to be delivered to the interpreter of the BLS." What? What? You want the truth????
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UXoNE14U_zM&feature=player_detailpage

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:53 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i'm w/ reese_bobby!  this is fuking awesome tyler! 

you had me at "...the divergence between the Nonadjusted January number of the establishment survey of any given year and the Unadjusted number."

so i put slices of "cutie" tangerines in my nostrils and wondered if i'd remember to listen to the game, tomorrow... i got thru the christmas candles...

ok!   look!  THE KICKER(!):  hahaha!  this is really xlnt!  5 momos!  biderman's coke secret!

..."population control effects"  L0L!!!  smooth!

tyler has risen to the challenge and kicked some assumptive/reporting ass, here, BiCheZ!

  • tyler >>> 1
  • bls > >>> 0
Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:08 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

Max Keiser interviews Dan Collins from thechinamoneyreport.com. He talks about the big news coming from China in the past few weeks, which is that the investment demand for gold and silver is going up.China's Yuan / Renminbi has 1,200% Leverage per Yuan / Renminbi as of last May. The U.S. Dollar has 120% Leverage. China looks good only because China services it's own debt load.. thru building empty City's.. 7 to 12 empty City's a year are built to service the China's Debt

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=KWC7O2m_H5s

Do you think this guy could say Thanks to Tyler or me for the numbers and exact quote?

Damn why not just clip and paste what I say all over the internet?

OOPS! they already do!! LOL!!

 

Signed, Christian Constitutionalist

P.S. dont forget! See Something? Say Something! http://www.dhs.gov/files/reportincidents/see-something-say-something.shtm

DHS Home Grown Christians Trying to Protect the Constitution are now Terrorists Propaganda

http://www.fas.org/irp/eprint/rightwing.pdf

 

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:53 | Link to Comment Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

Even Rick Santelli on CNBC quotes Zero Hedge and their numbers but at least he gives them cedit.  Although, there are times I have watched Mack Keizer and he also gives credit to Zero Hedge.

More and More people on Wall Street are following the Blog.  Zero Hedge moves the market more than CNBC at times.  Plus, they are a step ahead.  So, if you read Zero Hedge you can adjust your postions sometimes ahead of Wall Street.

TYLER IS ONE OF THE BEST ECONOMIC REPORTERS THERE IS.  HE IS UNPARALLED IN THE NEWS AND TV SPACE.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:32 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

From your last pdf link ... posted by FAS ... and good on 'em for bringing this slimmy US Govt Gestapo-esque shit and absurd over-reactions, into general public awareness:

 

http://www.fas.org/irp/eprint/rightwing.pdf

 

(U) Scope
(U//FOUO) This product is one of a series of intelligence assessments published by the Extremism and Radicalization Branch to facilitate a greater understanding of the phenomenon of violent radicalization in the United States. The information is provided to federal, state, local, and tribal counterterrorism and law enforcement officials so they may effectively deter, prevent, preempt, or respond to terrorist attacks against the United States. Federal efforts to influence domestic public opinion must be conducted in an overt and transparent manner, clearly identifying United States Government sponsorship.

 

A "greater understanding of the phenomenon", ... or so they say.

And then they go one to say how they are going to crush it, using extremist radicalised anti-social violence, against US citizens.

Pot-Kettle-Black

And all passed-off as 'Law Enforcement' ... of course.

And not a word in the intro about why have given up on official means of redress, or the total break-down in the US Justice system? 

And it has this stamped all over it:

"UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY" 

i.e. they could not get away with 'classifying' it, but you're still not supposed to see it, nor what they are cooking up.

--

EDIT: I noticed this definition within the foot notes:

* (U) Rightwing extremism in the United States can be broadly divided into those groups, movements, and adherents that are primarily hate-oriented (based on hatred of particular religious, racial or ethnic groups), and those that are mainly antigovernment, rejecting federal authority in favor of state or local authority, or rejecting government authority entirely. It may include groups and individuals that are dedicated to a single issue, such as opposition to abortion or immigration.

 

— (U//FOUO) Returning veterans possess combat skills and experience that are attractive to rightwing extremists. DHS/I&A is concerned that rightwing extremists will attempt to recruit and radicalize returning veterans in order to boost their violent capabilities.

 

Look out Ron Paul ... and zh ... and almost everyone else ... you radical right-wing extremists, you ... oh fuck it, you're all just terrorists anyway, so have no rights ... send in the drones!

I can't even imagine why a returning veteran might have some issues with the ultra-extreme, ultra-violent, ultra-ideologically-radicalised, ultra-lying, ultra-corrupt, ultra-thieving Washington circus, that pretends to be a representative democracy ... so you veterans must be watched most closely for signs of treachery ... for you pose a threat to national sickurity. 

You know the system is done for when they're this worried about domestic insurrection(s). 

DHS/I&A assesses this trend is likely to accelerate if the economy is perceived to worsen.

 

 

i.e. it's all about perception control bitchez ... the stats must be tinkered with.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:55 | Link to Comment Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

Never utter my name again you genetic mistake of a rotten scum-bag. YMSD.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:30 | Link to Comment Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

Why, are you like, the Candyman or something?!

Oh no!!

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 21:00 | Link to Comment e2thex
e2thex's picture

.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:20 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Hello Harry Wanker. You posted that bullshit on MW yesterday.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:22 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Does this post in itself not qualify as a response?

Hello? Is this thing on?

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:31 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Just a douchebag from 'Fuzzmaster 2000's' blog probably trying to stir up page hits now that the whole site is down to a couple of schoolteachers & Doug Kass...

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:52 | Link to Comment Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

That Doug Kass sure is dreamy.  Sometimes I like to pretend his surname doesn't start with a K.  Rawr...

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:27 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

as soon as you pass muster with the "IN" crowd... They'll let you call him "Doug-a-Doodle"...

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:37 | Link to Comment Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

If that doesn't make me horny I don't know <i>what</i> does!

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:51 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Well... speaking of 'tools', there's a button you can use to italicize things whereby you are spared having to construct HTML tags...

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 19:57 | Link to Comment Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

And my HTML tags don't work!!

What is this???  Russia?

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 21:10 | Link to Comment Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Click on Disable rich text and they will. If you are outside of Russia.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:26 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Barry who?

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:22 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

Barry Whaaaaaaaaat!

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:28 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Future Tense - Ritholtz is just plain wrong.

If he has any deceny, he'll basically come forward with a public mea culpa.

The January 2012 BLS U3 report was probably the most flawed one in decades.

It essentially dumped 10 years worth of U.S. population/demographic revisions into a single month, which was the baseline aggregate number that the BLS started from in computing its reported U3 figure.

December to January % changes in reported U3 are inherently flawed and seriously misleading. This year's was infinitely more so (or, at least 1000% more so).

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:31 | Link to Comment Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

Ritholtz ate Quogue.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:10 | Link to Comment SDRII
SDRII's picture

Ritholtz financial "analysis" is like opting for brain surgery from a  mechanic. Stick to recommending Itunes Barry

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:17 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I kno right?... At least ROBOT TRADER has the decency to make a post 'the day after' a stock moved... It takes the other guy a whole fucking week before he makes an announcement that they miraculously 'trimmed their positions' a few days before a meltdown...

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:33 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

He is like others, revisionist history serves him best.

Unless his PnL in in real time, i trust him as much as i trust a religious guru selling me his wisdom and truth. 

Attacking ZH is what gets him page clicks. Disagree with him and he tosses you. Last I checked if one position doesn't stand the test of critics, it is not worth the toliet paper his are written on.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:43 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Attacking ZH is what gets him page clicks. Disagree with him and he tosses you...

That sums it all up right there... (& of course, he cherishes his party invitations during the Hamptons summer season)...

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:35 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

If he has any deceny, he'll basically come forward with a public mea culpa.

That arrogant prick? Good luck with that...

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:29 | Link to Comment Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Ritholt is an arrogant and clueless cacasodo (an arrogant asshole that thinks his feces doesn't stink).

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:34 | Link to Comment Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

So why didn't you just type "Ritholt is an arrogant and clueless asshole that thinks his feces doesn't stink?"

Why'd you have to bring in calling him it in Spanish?  Are you the fucking Rosetta Stone, or what?

 

 

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:56 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I'm just taking a wild guess, but it might have been for the benefit of the mother who abandoned you at birth...

Juanita CandIDA-HamzAPATA-Bitchez-Ramirez

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:01 | Link to Comment Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

My mother doesn't post here.  She cleans the rooms at the Holiday Inn Express for 8.25 an hour.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 19:13 | Link to Comment Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

First, I am not the fucking or not-fucking Rosetta Stone.

Second, Ritholtz is an arrogant and clueless cacasodo.

Third, it is not Spanish, it is in Italian (from the verb cacare [defecate] and adjective sodo [hard]).

Fourth, English is a very poor language that does not allow accurately to describe different types of assholes in one word – asshole word does not accurately describe an individual who is not only an asshole but also an arrogant with inflated self esteem smart-ass (the one who thinks he defecates wisdom – cacasenno).

Fifth, Ritholtz is an arrogant and clueless cacasodo.

Sixth, Ritholtz is a hardcore liberal ideologue with stupendous faith in the government who is disguising himself as a libertarian.

Seventh, Ritholtz is a morbitly obese individual who is excessively obsessed with his below average size pennis (piccolo cazzone coglione).

Eighth, did I mention that Ritholtz is an arrogant and clueless cacasodo?

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 19:26 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

hai detto perfettamente

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:36 | Link to Comment GFKjunior
GFKjunior's picture

I read the comments on that article and could not help but laughing out loud.

So lost in their labels and ideology with sentences like " the only " the only crusader side is new keynesian/neoclassical/supply sider element"

 Sure buddy, it's all a matter of having a PHD from the "proper" school.

 

 

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:45 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Is Barry i) trying to get some exposure ii) getting a payday to spew garbage or iii) a Newt fan.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:56 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Barry Ritholz is one of the biggest asses on the net. Try posting on his blog something he doesn't agree with and you will find that he simply deletes it. Ritholz is the typical perma bull that Wall St. has always been and you will find no help from him when things all of a sudden go south.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:20 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

I can imagine the amount of Hate he has for the ZH's...

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:36 | Link to Comment Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

So don't go to his blog.

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 14:12 | Link to Comment SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

"So don't go"

What are you, a valley girl? 

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:02 | Link to Comment qussl3
qussl3's picture

Ritholthz has devolved into a click hungry shadow of his former self, read the blog for a while before it turned into a social engineering Pavlov pokefest.

Hoped he would be better on twitter - good lord was I wrong.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:12 | Link to Comment uno
uno's picture

vast majority of Barry's site just copies articles from various sources, NYT, infographics etc.  When he started I hoped he would expose the Wall Street banksters, but he just sold out when CNBS put him on air.  CNBS puts him on a lot, what does that tell you.  He also has a hard core Democratic party bias even though he swears he doesn't.

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 00:36 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

@uno

Yeah, the dumbass was pimping for Obama. Ritholtz actually believed the Obama hype. He has a vested interest in the Obama administration. Of course, if/when Obama is ousted, Ritholtz will break his ankle jumping off of the bandwagon. Oh, and he's also desperately trying to pull clicks by picking a fight with the Internets 800 pound gorilla with a chainsaw for a penis.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:56 | Link to Comment Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

Translation: "First he poked me on his site, then he poked me on twitter, and I was disappointed.  He had a little boat and no motion in the ocean."

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:18 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

"At the very least, a reputable financial news organization like CNBC needs to set the record straight on data like this as while Mr. Santelli is entitled to his own opinion, he is not entitled to his own facts, and the fact is 1 million people did not drop out of the labor force in January 2012."

Remind's me of my boss, He becomes so fucking happy when he's on CNBC! He think's hes one of the Elites

Sigh!

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:28 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Fat barry can go fuck the third duck that he didn't stuff in his cake-hole yesterday.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:55 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

You are SOOOOOOOOOOOO!! Sexy! when you talk dirty!

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:02 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

 

Future Tense

Ritholz posted this article yesterday calling out Zero Hedge and Rick Santelli on their jobs data. Any response Tyler or anyone else?

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/no-rick-santelli-and-zero-hedge-one-million-people-did-not-drop-out-of-the-labor-force-last-month/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

 

The Cost of Un-Employment in America

 

Unemployment costs (roughly) $1 Billion Dollars Per Month for every 10% of the Population Un-Employed that is Collecting Benefits. (I am not going into the real costs such as loss of taxes collected and so on for this little shared Nugget of info)

http://usgovinfo.about.com/od/federalbenefitprograms/a/ucprogram.htm

 

So, $1 Billion multiplied by 12 months is $12 Billion dollars in expenses.

Now the Real Number of Un-Employed is around 20%, so we will double the $12 Billion Dollar Number which is $24 Billion Dollars a Year to keep people from Starving in America! Or from another house going into foreclosure.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

 

So! We have an expense of $24 Billion a Year to Cover 20% Un-Employment Benefits.

That sounds like a LOT! Of Money and they way they talk about it on the News, 24 hours a day and 7 days a week! You would think it is Bankrupting the Country.

 

Now time for the WAKE UP MATH!

 

The First (NOT! LAST!!) Bailout for Wall Street was $700 Billion.. it was called TARP! The American People were to be paid 8% on the money loaned to Wall Street.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/bankinforeg/tarpinfo.htm

 

Now.. the question is.. how many times can we divide $24 Billion into $700 Billion to figure out how much Coverage the (1 st) First Bail Out for wall Street / The Banks would Provide for the American People in trouble due to Wall Street Fucking Up the Economy in the First Place?

700 divided by 24 =’s 29 and change..

So! The (1 st) First Bail Out for wall Street / The Banks would provide 29 Years of Un-Employment Benefits for the same amount of Money Given Wall Street.

29 Years of Un-Employment Benefits for 20% of the Workers in America.

The next time you hear some Bullshit, ALL! Day!! and ALL! Night!! Long about how the Workers who got screwed over by Wall Street are costing the Country HUGE amounts of Money..

Please Remember that Wall Street has Collected Trillions.. and is Collecting Trillions More Every Year.

 


A Trillion dollars.. would cover! ALL! Working Americans with Un-Employment Benefits for 8.33 years.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LFRxiX0pQl4

 

 

 

Think about that.. and now think about how Wall Street gets Trillions Every Year while America (the entire Country) does NOT! have enough money to repair our road ways or start our Shovel Ready Public Works Projects.

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2011/06/obama-jokes-about-shovel-ready-projects/1

http://nation.foxnews.com/president-obama/2011/06/13/obama-jokes-jobs-council-shovel-ready-was-not-shovel-ready-we-expected

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2010/10/infrastructure_projects_in_nj.html

 

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog <----- can Fuck the Fuck Off!

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:55 | Link to Comment SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

+ 1 JW

Good to see you back...

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 19:19 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

it has been long enough.. time to re-cycle some of my older stuff.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 19:53 | Link to Comment SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

So, you trust the federal government/BLS's numbers, adjustments and readjustments (Census.........)?  You trust them when there's NO mechanism for accountability currently or to fight financial fraud, or even agreed upon logic for birth/death adjustments and adjustments to overal labor force involvement?  Come back and challenge when we've seen some perp walks for the financial meltdown, or even ONE perp walk.  "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:12 | Link to Comment Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

The religion of money printing shall not be questioned, blasphemer!

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:36 | Link to Comment Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

TD vs BLS, UFC vs midgets, ETrade baby vs Geitner, Flavor flav vs Obama. My money is on all the formers!

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:36 | Link to Comment Tegrat
Tegrat's picture

Zerhohedge made the rush limbaugh show in the deceptive unemployment report. Like him or not 22 million now have the truth.

 

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:57 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Not the first time for Rush mentioning ZH. Again, ZH even made a live CNBC feed promo on Friday. Folks are waking up to the MSM lies.

You can either take the blue pill or red pill.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:39 | Link to Comment Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

I take the blue pill.  Then I have erections lasting for more than four hours.

It's a little bit.... awkward... but the ladies thank me.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:40 | Link to Comment Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

Nothing says sheep like some asshole going "Mega-dittos, Rush" at the beginning of every call...

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:58 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

What do you expect from someone whose username is TARGET spelled backwards?

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:53 | Link to Comment Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

touche.

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 01:57 | Link to Comment caerus
caerus's picture

these numbers mean nothing...i for one eagerly anticipate the release of the new farmville data...virtual crops don't just grow themselves...

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 14:57 | Link to Comment JeremyWS
JeremyWS's picture

Surely must be bullish?

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:00 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Calling....fuck I already forgot his name.....Bradberry? 

You know, that fucker that thinks Matt Drudge is Tyler Durden.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:03 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Someone email this to Brianne Westbury quickly so she can understand things better.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:07 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Yeah that guy.  Let's get him in here, I want to see him squirm.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:17 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Aha! Awesome work, ZH.

This issue of yesterday's BLS U3 report has been pestering me for...well...ever since it was release yesterday morning.

I've been over and over this issue since yesterday afternoon, given Ritholtz's (and the douchebag known as Brian Wesbury) claims that the BLS January U3 report was both consistent and reliable.

To add some additional information here, as far as I've been able to discern thus far (and correct me if I'm wrong), but January 2012 was the first month that the BLS fully incorporated and 'worked off of' the recent census bureau 10 year revision to U.S. headcount, whereas the January distortion in a normal year merely reflects U.S. estimates for population adjustment for the preceding 12 months (or a time frame far less than a decade).

In other words, the December to January % change in U3 as reported by the BLS is statistical noise, and hardly worthy of any significant extrapolation about the employment situation, but the January 2012 BLS U3 report was uniquely flawed even by normal BLS standards, as it incorporated 10 years worth of U.S. population adjustment into just one month of foundational numbers that they calculated U3 from, rendering it even more worthless.

 

Getting It Wrong on the BLS Employment Report

Submitted by Robert Oak

The Economic Populist

 

"The December to January unemployment statistics are often reported wrong in the press. We're sorry, god love ya, but these articles are plain incorrect. People like to compare the month to month change in population, the number of people no longer considered part of the labor force and other data. The grave mistake made by so many in the press and elsewhere is not realizing annual population adjustments are placed in the January data, not distributed evenly across the entire year, or backwards applied and that's why one cannot compare these two months. Below is a graph of non-institutional population monthly change. This is the number from where all other unemployment statistics are derived. It represents people 16 and older, not locked up somewhere, in a medical facility or in the military.

 

http://www.economicpopulist.org/files/u1/noninstitutionalpopmonthlychg.p...

[check out the January 2012 spike - it is MASSIVE]

See those huge three spikes in the above graph? [click on link above] That's when the latest Census, taken every 10 years, has been incorporated into the data series. What happens is almost a do over, starting with the next year and you see a huge discontinuity in the data when the Census has been incorporated into the non-institutional population statistic. Believe me, we did not get a streaming horde of illegal aliens in one month, nor did everyone decide to give spontaneous birth. Those spikes simply represent the tacking on of population controls to reflect the latest Census.

 

http://www.economicpopulist.org/files/u1/chgpopmonth.png

Above is a close up to show the spike in non-institutional civilian population. [click on link above] See how even the monthly change is except between December and January? That's where the yearly population adjustments are placed in the data series. The adjustments are literally just plopped into the month of January and this is why it is statistically invalid to compare December to January monthly changes. You simply cannot compare a change of a month, when one of those month's includes a year of population adjustments.

 

To wit, is the current unemployment rate of 8.3% valid? Well, if you like the definitions used by the BLS, it is statistically consistent. Did 1.25 million drop out of the labor force all of a sudden? No, this has everything to do with the Census population levels. Basically there are more people and like many population numbers increasing by proportion with the Census 2010, so did the number of people not in the labor force."

 

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:39 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

claims that the BLS January U3 report was both consistent and reliable.

He's just another fucking shill for "O's" Administration at this point (no different than LIESMan)...

His whole damn fund is populated with public unions who sink or swim with the current Administrations policies... IOW ~ he's talking his book...

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:40 | Link to Comment Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

My employer hired 50+ people in January, all at salaries north of 50k.

Those people must have been imaginary.  I'm not training some of them now.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:07 | Link to Comment hannah
hannah's picture

my employer hired 240,000 so we accounted for the entire beat on nfp....!

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:29 | Link to Comment Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

We have added roughly 350 American jobs over the last year.

Those are all imaginary, right?

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 19:50 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Well, I stand corrected everyone, and we have affirmation of the credibility of Friday's NFP Report as presented by the BLS.

cand-spam's employer hired more people.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:17 | Link to Comment Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

I guess that's hard to believe since you don't have a job and post on the internet all day about how every report is a lie?

If you had a job, you would notice:

1. The increasing number of commuters on the road
2. The difficulty to find a parking spot after you arrive at the office
3. The number of new cars on the road over the past year
4. How difficult it is to get reservations at posh restaurants for lunch, compared to how it was a year ago.

 

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:30 | Link to Comment WolfePaq
WolfePaq's picture

Irrelevant annecdotal bs you moron troll- there are for lease signs in every office bulding, every strip center and every subdivision, how's that for annecdotal evidence? levels matter you shyster. The governator came in for a photo op, you just exposed your troll dependency on TPTB.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:40 | Link to Comment Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

We are looking potentially to expand into another office building, like we did in 2010, because there is not enough space in our current office building.

I work in one of the largest office developments in my city (the whole place was built specifically for tech companies), and do not see the "for lease" signs you speak of. 
At strip malls in the suburbs, yes.  Only in less affluent areas though.

If you can't find a job:
1. Get some skills
2. Find an industry that uses those skills
3. Secure a job and move to where the job is.

There, I helped a fellow man out, even after he called me a moron.

It's my good deed for the day.

 

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:28 | Link to Comment WolfePaq
WolfePaq's picture

Irrelevant annecdotal bs you moron troll- there are for lease signs in every office bulding, every strip center and every subdivision, how's that for annecdotal evidence? levels matter you shyster. The governator came in for a photo op, you just exposed your troll dependency on TPTB.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:41 | Link to Comment Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

I can post twice too.

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 16:37 | Link to Comment IrritableBowels
IrritableBowels's picture

You apparently realized you can up-vote yourself too.

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 00:56 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

If you had a job, you would notice:

1. The increasing number of commuters on the road
2. The difficulty to find a parking spot after you arrive at the office
3. The number of new cars on the road over the past year

~~~~~

Try again dipshit... (maybe if you DIDN'T have a job, your head wouldn't be so far up your bosses ass)... The average age of a car in the US just hit an all time record... The only remotely positive spin on the article was a little 'hopium', (because it was published by yet another shill rag), things might be getting better and the numbers MAY change... due to,,, drumroll... CHANNEL STUFFING (which has been discussed oftentimes on this blog)...

http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/story/2012-01-17/cars-trucks-age-polk/52613102/1

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 22:35 | Link to Comment SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

"We have added roughly 350 American jobs over the last year.

Those are all imaginary, right?"

Do you know how many millions of people are out of work, and how many companies, cities and states are doing the exact opposite of your firm?  Does it help to put your head in the sand?

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com/

 

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:34 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

My employer hired 50+ people in January, all at salaries north of 50k.

Oh... So you work for the government then... It's all making sense now...

(so now it's up to 350... 2nd post)... Well then it's gotta be the BLS...

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:07 | Link to Comment Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

I work in tech, for a software company.  We design accounting compliance software.

Read the posts closer, idiot.

50 people last month, 350 people over the last year.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 23:17 | Link to Comment Fred Hayek
Fred Hayek's picture

Good for you. Seriously. I don't wish you ill in any way.
But, so what, really? In the bigger picture, so what?
In a nation of 310 million people you'll have pockets of terrible conditions even in booming economic conditions and pockets of dynamic growth in what overall are lousy conditions.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 23:18 | Link to Comment SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

"Read the posts closer, idiot."

Really?  You're going to fault someone for not reading your posts closer...bwaaaaaaahahaha...

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 23:20 | Link to Comment SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

"We design accounting compliance software."

 

Does your software allow for the FASB loose rules regarding what was formerly known as mark to market...that has allowed insolvent banks to foist trillion dollar heists on the American people - and what pray tell, are you doing about that, HUH?!

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 01:08 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

"accounting compliance software"

Oh... Fancy that... So I presume you contract out for the BLS & Diebold... Good work if you can get it... Congrats!... Funny though ~ aren't you that same dude who, a few comments above, couldn't even get an italics HTML tag to work properly? How, exactly, did you slip through the hiring net? I have my suspicions...

You must be as proud of your work as ol Zio here...

http://www.2flashgames.com/f/f-Fudge-Packer-3121.htm

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 19:31 | Link to Comment Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Who is your employer troll?

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:08 | Link to Comment Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

Maybe I can tell you who my wife and children are after that!

If you were an internet troll, would you tell people who your employer was?

I can assure you that I speak 100% the truth about our hirings.  Even the governor came by for a photo op.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 21:30 | Link to Comment Hulk
Hulk's picture

Because he had no other choice...

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 23:06 | Link to Comment Chump
Chump's picture

Your employer hired 50 people and that warranted a photo op with the governor?  And this is good anecdotal evidence of a stengthening economy?  "Sheep" is such an overused word, especially here, but you are such a shining example.

 But anyway, don't let me keep you from posting dozens of worthless, juvenile comments and generally being an ass.  Apparently it's important to you.

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 06:17 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Hm... I wonder whether This is the "employer":

http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?section=news/local&id=8523472

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 23:25 | Link to Comment SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

What a maroon - bragging about your accounting software when a quarter of the US is un and underemployed.  What's that 350 against the 6 million jobs that are down the tubes?  You should be furious, but apparently you're happy as a clam - idiot.

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 01:05 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

What a ta-ra-ra-GOON-de-ay

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:05 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Hey can someone put their 2 cents in on this....So if they want to go ahead and hype up the job numbers which ramps up the stock market which in turn should continue to spark a selloff in treasuries which the Fed is buying 91% of the 30yr...what happens when the twist ends and "price discovery" starts to take place? How do they keep the lid on rates? Do they let the long end of the curve run? Do they do QE3 with the dow at 13.5k and running and everyone cheering about the recovery? What gives?

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:13 | Link to Comment Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

"But then finally the masses wake up. They become suddenly aware of the fact that inflation is a deliberate policy and will go on endlessly. A breakdown occurs. The crack-up boom appears" - Mises

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:15 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

come on...please be serious Conrad. Does the market miraculously tank causing the retail guy to load up on treasuries bailing out Ben?

The masses wake up....funny

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:38 | Link to Comment Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

There is no retail guy. The idiot boomers are cashing out and (thankfully)dying off, and since they've already raped the future of the economy/country in order to live like vegetables for an extra 10 years on the dole, their children won't be cashing in.

Also, white babies are a minority in the US as of last year. That means less investment in the future, as brown and black people do not have money to invest. - http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2011/07/26/wealth-gaps-rise-to-record-hig...

The Fed will print whatever it wants to buy whatever it wants in markets so distorted they're meaningless while more countries say "fuck the dollar". The 0.00001% will continue to send money back and forth to each other while everyone else gets poorer. Until the game ends anyhow.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:42 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

That is bats, vegetables do not live.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:11 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Correct! Guano aka Bat Shit! The bats that be, need to re-adjust the radar!

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:48 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

With all due respect the idiot boomers are working later on in life and since most of them can't move their 401(k) until they leave service they are doing the "prudent" thing and allocating the majority of their substantial balances into the "safer" bond funds and stable value funds in order to preserve their principal as they have been instructed to.

As for your point about race or color I have no comment and your 3rd point about the fed I pretty much agree with.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:02 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I see someone junked me but obviously could not refute what I said. Good for you silent stupid guy.

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