This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Explaining Yesterday's Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Payroll "Beat"

Tyler Durden's picture


Since there still is confusion regarding yesterday's whopping "surge" in non-farm payrolls, which represented a 243K jump in the Establishment survey (of which 490K was temp jobs, same as in the Household Survey where temp jobs soared by a record 699K), yet only to arrive at an employment number last seen ten years ago, when the US population was about 30 million lower (think about that: 30 million increase in population and no change in the total employed), here is the final explanation of what happened yesterday.

As everyone knows by now, January is when the BLS imposes its annual seasonal adjustment revision (more on that in a second) for the previous January-December period. What this manifests itself most directly in, is the divergence between the Nonadjusted January number of the establishment survey of any given year and the Unadjusted number. And while the January adjustment is always substantial, it is the fact that the so-called beat was entirely based on assumptions that makes yesterday's NFP number so meaningless, and hardly the basis to assume that the US economy has taken off.

The chart below shows the adjusted and unadjusted employment survey data for total Nonfarm Employees. The annual January overadjustment is more than evident. Just as evident are the subsequent under-adjustments as seasonal data is lowered to account for volatility in the NSA data. What is very notable is that in January, absent BLS smoothing calculation, which are nowhere in the labor force, but solely in the mind of a few BLS employees, the real economy lost 2,689,000 jobs, while net of the adjustment, it actually gained 243,000 jobs: a delta of 2,932,000 jobs based solely on statistical assumptions in an excel spreadsheet!

So how does this data fit in specifically in the context of the just passed NFP whopper of a number? Simple. The chart below shows the January seasonal adjustment for the past 4 years, since 2009. The number of jobs added for "seasonal" purposes to the NFP number were as follows: 2009 - 2,006,000; 2010 - 1,970,000; 2011 - 2,129,000, and the all important 2012: 2,146,000. Once again, this is the number added to the NFP unrevised baseline to get a "final" number which is then blasted to the media. The chart below shows the historical January adjustment, to the NFP data, as well as the 2012 reported adjustment, and also what the statistical adjustment would be for the NFP number to have the NFP number come in line with expectations of a 140,000 beat.

Here is the kicker: the market mood yesterday would have been far more somber if instead of a seasonal fudge-factored statistical addition of 2,146,000 jobs, the BLS had decided on a number that is merely the simple average of the statistical adjustment of the past 3 years, which comes down to 2,035,000. In fact, had the BLS used this seasonal adjustment, the final NFP headline number (SA) would have been +132,000, or a miss of expectations of 8,000 (the Seasonal Adjustment number to get to consensus January expectations would have to be +2,043,000 to the NFP number). In other words, the difference between a + and - 2% move in the stock market is based on less than a 5% variation to the entire January seasonal adjustment, as had the BLS add just the simple average, the BLS report would have been a disappointing miss, and the market would have likely dropped (although with 5 momos in charge of the entire market, the thesis would have likely promptly shifted to "more QE coming" so who really knows). And now you know how the BLS' seasonal adjustment, which as Charles Biderman pointed out yesterday is guarded as secretly as Coke's recipe, defined the tone and the mood of the market for at least one month.

Finally, as to some newsletter and namesdropping blogs allegation that the Labor Force did not, in fact, increase by 1.2 million in January, we have one simple question: just how does one "refute" a statement with an assumption? Because last we checked, the BLS did not provide a smoothing breakdown of how it applied its seasonal adjustment for the "population control effects" which saw the population increase by 1.7 million in January and those not in the labor force rose by 1.2 million. Quite the contrary , what the BLS did provide is Table C: "December 2011-January 2012 changes in selected labor force measures, with adjustments for population control effects" which does show how on an apples to apples basis the adjustment factors did in fact impact the two key components in determining the unemployment rate: the amount of Americans employed, and those not in the labor force.

And while one can try to say it is inconceivable to say that the US population jumped by 1.7 million in one month, we reply that this is coming from the BLS whose admission of the "population control effect" adjustment merely confirms that it has been misrepresenting the actual labor force participation rate for at least a year. In other words, while one may pander to semantics, and believe that a data series is not a data series because of one's mastery of sophistry and assumptions, this is totally irrelevant: the end result is that in January, those "not in the labor force" did in fact rise by 1.2 million (whether compared to December or to 2011 - please, go ahead and check as many times as needed), and the labor force participation rate dropped to a new 30 year low of 63.7%, a number which incidentally only has to drop by 5% more percent for the BLS to report zero, or even a negative, unemployment rate


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:04 | 2127235 Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

1000 up-arrows for the first paragraph of your post.  Seriously.

And then you get into the racist, tin foil hat shit.  I think I'm gonna take away your up arrows.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:20 | 2127261 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

Well, allow me to apologize for antagonizing your idiocy. Sometimes I happen to forget there are millions of sheep who are conditioned to cry RAYCISS! every time they hear or see the word black/white/brown.

There is nothing tin foil or racist in my post. It's an analysis of government data from Pew.

Since you've decided to take the most boneheaded approach possible(slinging slanderous shit around with no backing in reality), and may have thus cast an unfavorable shadow onto the point I was making, I will excerpt a few lines for you and any other baboons incapable of clicking a link and reading.

"the typical black household had just $5,677 in wealth (assets minus debts) in 2009; the typical Hispanic household had $6,325 in wealth; and the typical white household had $113,149"

If you managed to read that hate-filled bit without having your eyeballs burst into flames of sin, maybe you would be kind enough to tell me, in non-racist words of course(we don't want to offend the delicate PC sensibilities of the emasculated population), what that means for investments, given due consideration of the aforementioned demographic shift.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:36 | 2127285 Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

It means that the people who spend, instead of hoard money, will become the majority in the population.  They will purchase goods instead of hoarding money, and there will be money to invest in the economy again.

Of course, I'm sure that many of the Blacks/Hispanics will just spend their money on 40s of Malt Liquor instead of investing.  Right, Conrad?

I totally understand what you're saying now.  Because there will be more black and brown people, innovation and investment will stop in America!  I totally understand how that's not racist... pardon me.


Sat, 02/04/2012 - 19:06 | 2127325 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

A household with $6k is never going to invest on the scale of a household with $110K. Will things even out in the long run? Will the children of today, growing up in a world where criminals and traitors get bailouts and bribes on the backs of their parents, trust the white man's casino? Who knows.

America isn't going to stop being the land of innovation and investment because of brown and black people. Look at Africa and Mexico for proof. America will stop(has stopped) being the land of innovation and investment because of Statism.

Point of clarification: Blacks spend all of their money on malt liquor, but Hispanics spend all of their money on weed.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:12 | 2127413 Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

So now the racism comes out.  Most of the people I know that spend their money on weed are white, personally.

If the household with 6k spends more, the people receiving the the money that they spend will invest.  They will need new facilities to support the people spending more money.  They will need new liquor stores and dispensaries, as a minimum, based on your logic.  Is that hard to understand?

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 23:31 | 2127803 Chump
Chump's picture

Well goodness, now "hoarding" is good...?  As long as it's the people selling random stuff that you want other people (who shouldn't be hoarding, apparently) to buy?  You can't even get simple-minded talking points right.

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 01:23 | 2128005 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Ahem Mr. oversized spam...

1. A household with 6k is most likely on food stamps

2. There's a good chance that it's a broken home & child support comes in somewhere

3. Highly likely that there has already been bankruptcy &/or court ordered wage garnishment (which means, nobody even has bank accounts, they go to a local check casher)

4. next to that check casher is a liquor store

5. The liquor store is owned by Koreans (and the booze is paid for in CASH)

6. Probably a few lottery tickets are sold as well

7. The Koreans hoarde the cash (& probably account for most transactions under the table)

I NOW RETURN YOU TO YOUR 'Sims' games & foto ops with the governor (who wonders why tax receipts are so low, except, of course, for the state lottery money that he/she is proud to say, YOU KNOW, is helping THE KIDS with better schools & education)...


Sat, 02/04/2012 - 19:48 | 2127373 Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

Go long King Cobra and depends

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 23:28 | 2127792 Chump
Chump's picture

Wrong spot.

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 07:05 | 2128211 Seer
Seer's picture

"It means that the people who spend, instead of hoard money"

Not to defend anyone, or any "behavior," but... how is money being hoarded?  I'm thinking that most of what you might be thinking is being hoarded is actually in circulation: retirement/pension money and such is managed and invested, which means that it is applied toward productive means (one could debate what "productive means" means, but I'll just leave it at this).

This is the "money is on the sidelines" argument/belief.  I'm pretty sure that such money isn't just sitting in vaults in people's homes (mansions or whatever) as such a description might suggest.  The closest that I figure this could mean is parking money in Treasuries or such; and this, I'd claim, is pretty much an all-but-forced directive by the Fed and the Treasury ("let us use it, else lose it").

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 00:36 | 2127925 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture


@ conrad

  • there is no retail guy.  check
  • boomers are a drag.  check
  • people of color do not have money to invest in markets so distorted they're meaningless.  check

i need to reload...

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:06 | 2127015 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

That is the key question. First thing to understand they can't let rates rise very much at all because it will put the Fed underwater very quickly. Second, the amount of debt to auction is staggering. Failed auctions will raise alarm bells and Bernanke will do everything in his power to have auctions go off smooth. My thinking is that another debt downgrade is in the cards for the US and that will be the straw that breaks Bernanke's back.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:11 | 2127024 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Thanks for your thoughts. With the debt coming to auction being so staggering and the economy "gaining steam" you would think that would send rates up at an alarming pace...whcih would cause what? Ben to do QE3 with the markets soaring on recovery hopes? He would get mega backlash for that...and he can't just sit there and let it crash somehow? Causing people to flee to treasuries? Whats the card up his sleeve?

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 08:09 | 2128237 Seer
Seer's picture

"they can't let rates rise very much at all because it will put the Fed underwater very quickly."

This has been my take on things for quite a while.  I based it on the issue of ARM resets, that interest rates wouldn't be allowed to be increased until the wave of ARM resets passed.  I could hypothesize that banks were basically front-loaded with all this bailing as "compensation" for holding off raising interest rates (which would almost certainly inflict dire stress on the economy with massive loan defaults).  When viewed this way it would seem pretty clear that the banks are really running on borrowed time.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:07 | 2126870 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Yesterday surge explained in 2 words : seasonal adjustment.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:07 | 2126872 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

Change You Can Believe In!

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:08 | 2126876 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The ball is your court Wesbury. Can you return it or are you going to ball up and cry?

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:10 | 2126881 Wm the Shrubber
Wm the Shrubber's picture

Good analysis, and doubtless correct.  Regardless, TPTB got the reaction they wanted.  This is long forgotten by Monday as we move on to the next distortion and misdirection.  Fundamentals and truth matter little in this environment, which is indicative not only of how fubar things are but also how far "they" are willing to go to perpetuate the fantasy.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:12 | 2126888 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

@ Shrubber please see my question above as I wonder if they really got what they wanted or if they should have been careful what they asked for.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:39 | 2126960 Wm the Shrubber
Wm the Shrubber's picture

Just a WAG:

1. Ramp markets on vapor volume;

2. Ringfence EZ banks with massive LOTR liquidity;

3. Allow Greece (likely Portugal) to default;

4. Markets correct from amped up levels, limiting damage;

5. Fed responds to financial scare with QE3/expansion of swap lines;

6. Market stabilize and resume ascent on wave of liquidity;

7. Obama gets reelected;

8. It all goes to hell in 2013 when the imbalances tip, inflation takes hold, and interest rates spike.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:33 | 2127064 Stack Trace
Stack Trace's picture

Funny. I was just predicting these events to my wife. :-)

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:07 | 2127237 Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

Don't forget

9. Tank the price of silver!

10.  Buy all the silver!

11.  FEMA Concentration camps!

12.  ????????

13. Jesus riding his brontosaurus down to kill the non-believers!

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:03 | 2127008 onebir
onebir's picture

It doesn't really explain why the Jan seasonal adjustment is likely to be misleading: the seasonal adjustment will be *always* be very large when a month is atypical, and will almost always be changing a bit from year to year, because it's calculated using filtering techniques on a rolling window of prior year data, which is always changing.

So (even without manipulation, which is possible) it's no surprise that the seasonal factor can make the difference between a beat and a miss in January, when the seasonal factor is so big. That'll be true whenever the seasonality calls for a big seasonal factor...

However there's other reasons to think Jan NFPs were overly positive: since 2008 people will be much less willing to quit their jobs in Jan. (And quite likely this unwillingness has increased as the job market's deteriorated.) But the seasonal factors won't fully reflect these changes because they're based on at least 5 years of data.

Financial stress may also mean firms are less willing to keep people they plan to fire on the books until Jan, firing them in the precedding months instead. This too would imply the positive adjustment in Jan is too big (but also means some of the firings in the preceding months should have been offset by larger positive adjustments).

Seasonal adjustment is a nightmare whenever anything is changing...

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 12:34 | 2128588 Fred Hayek
Fred Hayek's picture

To add to your words, 2.7 million people lost their jobs in January according to the BLS report. After messing around with their adjustments, they say that we "gained" 243,000 jobs. The proportions alone, even if they were working with nothing but the purest intentions and best possible data and theories, make taking that 243,000 number seriously ridiculous. The actual losses were an order of magnitude greater than the represented gains. How incredibly confident in every aspect of your data and calculations would you have to be to say that that's truly the case?

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:11 | 2126886 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

They've narrowed expectations while broadening the range of the fudge factor so that it becomes easy to lie.

Imagine forecasting weather with expectations that every day would be partly cloudy with precipitation and predicting temps in a 20 degree range.

"Wow!  It's a much better day than 52 and partly cloudy, it's 53 and partly sunny!  Picnic time folks!"

Of course, people can go outside and see for themselves; national propaganda is easier to foist upon people.

I have no idea if 56 degrees and partly cloudy is really what the weather is inside the Beltway in D.C.; but I'd wager my left testicle unemployment is higher than 8.3% there and in every part of the U.S.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:32 | 2127173 Fred Hayek
Fred Hayek's picture

Actually, in the land of our government leviathan, unemployment is much lower than in the real world. Because unlike the real world there have effectively been no federal government layoffs in response to the great recession or in response to budget problems. All those executive assistant under secretaries for equal opportunity compliance in the Department of Homeland security and deputy vice chairmen for green energy utilization in the Department of Education are still pulling down their $137,000 a year like nothing has changed or ever has to. By far the single best housing market in the U.S., even better than N.Y., is D.C. Inside and next to the beltway they're still living like nothing's changed or ever has to. The reports they read about troubles in the rest of the country have as much reality to them as a news item about Biafra or Syria.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:13 | 2126893 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Price had all day Friday to figure this out and didn't.  I wonder if it will have by Sunday night

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:14 | 2126895 ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

......namesdropping blogs....

I believe ZH is talking about this

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:14 | 2126896 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I am no eCONomist, but I think I see a pattern emerging.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:16 | 2126899 alexwest
alexwest's picture

yes .. BLS totally fucked civilian population data series..
it just never ever happened before...

BASICALLY FUCKERS KEPT 'civilian population' as low as possible as long as it was possible..


Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:21 | 2126912 dbTX
dbTX's picture

Talk about some screw ball math !!

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:27 | 2126918 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

The number of "people" attacking Zerohedge yesterday was amazing. If I were more conspiratorially, I would conclude it was a coordinated attack by entities with motives far greater than spreading "truth" on a blog or in a newsletter. However, I'm going with the premise that most people don't understand basic math anymore.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:45 | 2126971 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I'm going with the premise that most people don't understand basic math anymore.

My effin MOTHER knew that the BLS numbers were bullshit (seriously ~ the topic came up inadvertently in a conversation I was having with her yesterday)...

She's fucking 78 years old... So the "academics" who don't understand basic math are "shills" for the Administration... Maybe they suck at math, but at least they know on which side their bread is buttered...

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:57 | 2126997 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

When ZH goes from being ignored to being attacked you can be sure ZH is hitting all the right buttons.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:35 | 2127184 Fred Hayek
Fred Hayek's picture

Gandhi said, "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win."

Are you saying they skipped the laughing part?

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:56 | 2127498 Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

I can't possibly think how a site that attacks the news of every other site daily and consistently would make enemies on its own, without a larger conspiracy being involved.

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 12:38 | 2128596 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

Did you read the word "IF" above, or is that not included in your accounting software programming expertise?!

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:24 | 2126921 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

This is the best explanation of a "miracle beat" I have read so far (and I have read over 20 different explanations posted on the internet over the last 24 hours).

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:40 | 2126963 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 The " Steve LIEsman" effect.  That was a Triple Lindy! Heck , one of my favorite posters barked at me.  Slewie,... Slewie,...Slewie,...?

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 00:17 | 2127890 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture


i think you triggered my maternal instincts, Y/C!

if you had any idea how many times i have fuked up my bankroll...

you be careful in those FX markets!


Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:49 | 2126981 Ponzi Unit
Ponzi Unit's picture

Biderman of Trim Tabs follows withholding tax payments. Sees nothing to support this. To the contrary.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:52 | 2126983 russwinter
russwinter's picture

Maybe the Gumnut has a different set of books, but if you look at Daily Treasury Statement withholding taxes YoY for FY 2012 to date(Oct-now)  compared to FY 2011, things look far from an employment boom, nao combinam.  It is 618.5 vs 616.7 YoY, corporate is 74.5 vs 68.9. Total is 726.6 vs 715.0 YoY. This is going to be way short of the revenue projection for FY 2012. 

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:52 | 2126990 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

and in even far more simple terms the BLS is over estimating the number of new employees by at least 100K a month.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 15:52 | 2126991 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Our Messiah has risen to higher levels no human has ever achieved….


Normally, I embed links to avoid favoritism amongst the crowd. Not today. All credit goes to The Peoples Cube.

Your Saturday comedy:

The Teachings of Jesus and Obama: A Reference Chart

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:09 | 2127021 g3h
g3h's picture

This argument is just weak.

First the first chart looks like the BLS did a decent job.  The SA line captures the trend  (non adjusted raw data) well.  If you look at the Jan data, you must admit that the employed population has had a "higher high" for the last 3 years.  So you just can't simply blame the BLS for making the adjustment.

As for the population drop, hey, that's the new census data.  When new population data are introduced, discontinuity is expected.  BLS may have lied.  But one can't simply fault it using its own data.

The true test comes in a month if the temp hiring can sustain.  If Dec sales (Nov retail sales was equally disappointed, just in case people had forgotten) and Q4 GDP, especially its inventory build up are any indication, the reality will set in.

Now the herd is highly likely to have been completely fooled by these upbeat data that prosperity is just weeks ahead and start to drain their savings and tap their rcedit cards again.  If that is the case, we may actually see a continuation.  If not, then payback time will come in a month.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:21 | 2127044 SDRII
SDRII's picture

restatement without pro forma is the whole point! let the lemmings debate it to death while the Obama shills gloat about their recovery with the bootlicker buysiders fulminating about the breadth of housing recovery. As to your "payback" month, you either missed the spirit of the post or for that matter the past 4 years. In 2009 the jobs card was simply a bridge too far and thus it was the combination of consumer confidence "better than expected" as it was walked higher in linear fashion coupled with short bans. It inst the seasonal adjustment it is the integrity of the numbers, last month, this month and next month.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:30 | 2127172 GernB
GernB's picture

I disagree. People are being misled, but perhaps not in the way that it is being portrayed by either side.

The real stunning fact here is just how shaky the employment numbers are if a 5% change in the seasonal adjustment can mean the difference between "game changing" employment numbers, and a misrable miss. Nobody is making that clear ot the public. They just eat up the employment numbers like they mean something, but they clearly don't if the seasonal adjustment is many times the number of jobs that are created (or not created).

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:10 | 2127022 non_anon
non_anon's picture

ha ha, and the beat goes on

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:13 | 2127027 asteroids
asteroids's picture

The BLS should be abolished and shamed. The easy way to do that is to simply point out the truth, repeatedly, until they go away.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:15 | 2127140 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Where's my B(L)S job?

I could fuck up every day at work... have my work revised constantly... with a 60% error rate...


Then retire on 80% of my highest salary with full medical benefits at age 55...

I can do that job...

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 12:47 | 2128614 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

Welcome to 'good enough for gubmint (fraud) work.'

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:13 | 2127029 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Here is what gets one is mentioning who exactly is being employed. It is the lowest level....those with less than a HS diploma. This isn't a new revelation. In fact it has been going on for quite a while.

 The low educated, low skill, low pay group:

High end (Bachelors or higher) continues to degrade:

..even those with just a HS diploma see the same trend:


Not to leave out those with an associates degree or some college:

This is the problem no one is talking about.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:15 | 2127032 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

The biggest issue once again is what the employers think, which apparently is not much.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:22 | 2127039 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Hence the show up on the corner for, " PART TIME" gigs, and sans the benefits and retirement plan!  As usual Tyler. NICE WORK!


 GUATEMALA 3'rd world style!

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:30 | 2127062 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

"at least I won't be unoriginal"...

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:34 | 2127066 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Great Post! You certainly won't.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:38 | 2127072 resurger
resurger's picture

Headshot! +1

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:46 | 2127484 Cand-Hamz-Bitchez
Cand-Hamz-Bitchez's picture

My employer has hired 350 full time employees, all making 50kish to start, and rapidly being given raises, with full benefits, who all have fringe benefits like a chef and masseuse on staff, over the last year.

Fifty people were hired in January.

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 01:28 | 2128012 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture


...or should I say 'SALON-dra'?

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 14:38 | 2128970 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

Repeat your accounting programming expertise allows you to use CTRL + V but not CTRL + I?  Who knew?  Let's see, you say that your governor came out to gladhand you and your execs - so you must be the model citizens and exceptions to the job losses and economic malaise in the US.  Your shiny accounting software firm must be doing better than the average firm in your city. 

Let's posit that 4 to 5% UR is a healthy normal UR in the US, and perhaps 10% un and underemployment (U6 or other measure) is healthy normal.  US unemployed according the BLS report on Friday [ ] =12,758,000 = 8.3%.  10% of the BLS estimated US workforce would be 15,371,000 people.  The true numbers of un and underemployed could be around 20+% given some estimates [ ], but we'll just working with just the 20% figure there are 30,742,000 people un and underemployed and 15,371,000 needing good FT employment just to get that un and underemployed number down to that 10% healthy number. 

So your firm has dented that massive number by 350/15,371,000 US un and underemployed = .0000228, or .00228% or 2.3/1000th of 1 percent of overall unemployed, according the BS BLS numbers.  It would only take 43,400 firms JUST like yours, model as you are, meeting with the governor and all, to bring the US un and underemployment figure back down to a more healthy 10%.

But hey, your shiny, model firm, meeting with the governor, has produced 350 FT jobs in a year!  Thanks for sharing that AGAIN.

What could be wrong with the rest of the world, when all is so good for you, and your company?

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:49 | 2127207 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

part-time, low wage, low education, makes for an easy profit margin.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:21 | 2127435 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

I think the biggest issue is the pursuit by the present (and by the trend previous) administration, to create a cheap workforce to compete with say, China's. Even here on ZH the point has been made that the pursuit bu politicians is a cheaper workforce.


Due to the rise of participation rate of those with less than a HS education, over 2 decades, it isn't just this administration pursuing this.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:54 | 2127098 NumberNone
NumberNone's picture

Can't we just drop them from the report?  They don't seem to matter much and they just keep screwing up the numbers. 

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:15 | 2127033 WhiteWolf
WhiteWolf's picture

It is very pathetic the admisitrations reach. Over 7 Million jobs lost, including my own. I don't feel sorry for myself as I have drapped myself in Silver Eagels, mapleleafs and buffaloes. Sorry Tyler for these idiots who keep defending Barry the Bolshevik. Good luck Barry, I mean even if you win, you lose. No confidence including all your economic advisors...Romer the dog rover, Summers the shithead, Banks the bullshiter, Goolsbie the Ghool, and now ....Geitner..the turbo Ghetto man. What say ye liberals, how can all these people leave and you have explanationns...??? the jets are being fired up. I think we have plenty of people to hunt your asses down and bring you back to JUSTICE...whoops head shithead..DOJ..the guiltiest of them all run the Dept of, barry the bulshitter bulshevic. Well then it is 1776 all over again. I got guns..

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:23 | 2127048 Misean
Misean's picture

Jobs are overated. I got me a Shiti food card and a Skank of America credit card. Gonna buy me some wings and beer and watch the new TV I bought for a missed mortgage payment.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:40 | 2127049 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

OT :

N. Korea blasts upcoming S. Korea-U.S. military drills

South Korea and the U.S. plan to jointly stage major military maneuvers, called Key Resolve, from Feb. 27 to March 9, with about 200,000 South Korean and 2,100 U.S. troops participating.

Russia's Gazprom says unable to pump extra gas to Europe

He said there had been a reduction of 10 percent in gas volumes delivered on previous days but that now deliveries had returned to their normal levels.

The European Commission said Friday that Austria, Bulgaria, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Romania and Slovakia had each registered drops in gas supplies.

Euro Parliament backs low-carbon road map

A European Parliament committee this week approved an EU "road map" to a low-carbon economy that seeks to go beyond current greenhouse gas reduction targets.

Iran will respond to any oil, military threats: Khamenei

Greenpeace chief warns of 'perfect storm' of crises

"We are seeing a convergence of multiple crises happening at the same time. A food crisis, climate crisis, poverty crisis ... and then of course the financial crisis and a demographic crisis and a global governance democratic crisis," he added.

Merkel wraps up China visit

German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Saturday wrapped up a visit to China where she tried to reassure her hosts on the strength of the euro and Europe's ability to overcome its debt crisis.

Wen says China has no intention to 'buy Europe'

Gulf states struggle to beat oil threat

The Persian Gulf emirate of Abu Dhabi is rushing to complete a $3.29 billion underwater oil pipeline from the United Arab Emirates to an export terminal on the Gulf of Oman to bypass the endangered choke point Strait of Hormuz.

The much-delayed pipeline is expected to open in May but that may not be in time to alleviate any closure of Hormuz.

Russian gas supplies down 30% at Austrian hub: OMV

'Urgent' need to solve Europe debt crisis: China

China's premier warned of an "urgent" need to solve the European debt crisis Thursday and said Beijing was looking at ways it could contribute to bailout funds, after talks with Germany's chancellor.

Portugal sells 40% of electric grid to China, Oman firms

Iran Starts Cruise Missile Production

Moscow Sees No Progress on European Missile Defense

Russian Strategic Subs to Resume Routine World Patrols

Putin Slams U.S. Missile Shield Ahead of Munich Security Talks

Disposal of Russian Third Generation Nuclear Subs Suspended

Russia to Build 6 Submarines Annually – Deputy PM

Hungary is seeking an international credit line of 15 to 20 billion ($20 to $26.3 billion) euros, the secretary of state heading the prime minister's office, Mihaly Varga, was quoted on Saturday as saying.


Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:27 | 2127056 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture



Shakes my magic 8 ball. Will Rush revisit this topic on Tuesday?

Answer: Yes.

The mission, educate peeps how to interpret government data. Public knowledge diffuses MSM propaganda.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:27 | 2127057 Poetic injustice
Poetic injustice's picture

It was almost normal working day morning. Davey Jones was waking up, through the screams of grandgrandson. They were living all together, 10 people in 3 rooms. They were lucky to buy it out before bank collapse. For his 76 years, Davey looked good. Only 4 more year to pension, with which he would be able to buy 1 kilo of meat twice per month. Davey worked in Walmart, owned by Mexican boss, which was downsized and sold only American goods still produced - guns and hamburgers, in different isles. After eating daily half of burger, Davey went out of home and walked to his workplace. While walking, he noticed unbelievable - a car was driving down the street, avoiding holes and donkey shit piles. Davey's eyes got misty. He remembered his youth...

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:42 | 2127078 thetruthseeker
thetruthseeker's picture

Tried posting a comment on Ritholtz's blog the other day regarding his post on global warming. I asked how he completely ignores Climategates 1 and 2, or the fact that all the pro global warming crowd's predictions fail year after year. Needless to say, he did not post the comment.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:09 | 2127126 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Ritholtz... Another Bullshit Barry in action...

Isn't a nation full of douche bag lawyers wonderful?

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:59 | 2127226 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Climate is is always changing. Are humans causing a rise in temp...sure in some areas, absolutely. This is easy to detect via therma graph...asphalt, concrete, etc. vs vegitation. CO2 comprises too small a percentage of the atmosphere (<0.4%). Water vapor, a far better holder of heat comprises up to 2%...but it's hard to get people worked up over boiling pasta.

THe real kicker is...if we weren't warming things up a bit...we would be heading into the next iceage...the decline in population would be massive....but it would help the jobs market.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:25 | 2127270 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 P/S you are generally a good poster. The only thing that controls climate is the " bIG BRIGHTSun". Sell your solar panels some where else!

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:44 | 2127083 Irish66
Irish66's picture

I would guess Zerohedge now has 4-5 million hits a month...Kudos

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:47 | 2127086 TheArmageddonTrader
TheArmageddonTrader's picture

Trying to make sense of what underlies the monthly BLS reports is pretty hopeless. Do y'all believe the economy really lost 2.9 million jobs between November and January? That it typically loses that much every November to January? I don't. The BLS appears to be first exaggerating the drop with its birth-death model, and then smoothing out what it just exaggerated with its seasonality model. Thus amplifying the noise in the raw survey data twice.

You don't see credible numbers till the annual benchmark is published more than a year later.


Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:15 | 2127141 hannah
hannah's picture

arm - you still dont understand what the adjustment was the article.

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 12:44 | 2128608 TheArmageddonTrader
TheArmageddonTrader's picture

Sorry, but you're the one that's confused here.

I'm talking about two adjustments: the birth-death model adjustment in January, which estimates a big drop in the number of jobs, and the seasonal adjustment in January, which smooths out that big drop (as well as the actual measured drop, resulting from ends of holiday temp jobs and a large number of retirements at the end of the year). My point is that putting a data stream that's well known to be noisy through two consecutive big adjustments like that greatly amplifies the noise, thereby making the apparent big job gain number for January very untrustworthy. This is true every January and is a completely separate problem from the one discussed in the article,  which refers to the adjustments to other series, especially labor force participation, resulting from incorporating 2010 census data.

Sorry to be technical and nerdy but this is a technical nerdy topic.


Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:48 | 2127089 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

The latest German craze :

Bestiality brothels spur call for animal sex ban
Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:49 | 2127092 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

They are really getting desperate. I think they know damn well there is no recovery and globally it's actually getting worse again. The US is already in recession according to the ECRI which could be the final nail in the coffin'.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 16:56 | 2127103 uno
uno's picture

on king world today Rob Arnott talked about employment

back in the 1950's the male employment rate was 93% (guess the rest were in jail, looking for another job, too rich), less than 75% today (age 20-65); so the unemployment rate is over 18% for men.


Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:01 | 2127110 Poetic injustice
Poetic injustice's picture

In 1950ies man supported whole family. Now both have to work for the same salary.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:44 | 2127186 uno
uno's picture

interesting evolution:

1950's-1960's - a man can finacially support a family

1970's-2000 - outsourcing; woman lib, divorce, single woman supporting children, 2 incomes needed because of inflation for Quality of life

2000's - first unlimited debt then government programs (food stamps, disability, medicaid) entirely supporting over 50 million, (at least one in six)

2010 - NDAA, fema camps ready

Please add to the list as you see fit



Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:06 | 2127118 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

"here is the final explanation of what happened yesterday."

Let me explain...

Lie By Revision
The Useful Idiot, Teleprompter 'n Chief, Obama Bin Lyin' aka Bullshit Barry Soetoro has been the king of Lie By Revision since this CIA created douche was foisted on the Amerikan public...

Corporate Owned Governance
The US government has reached Soviet\Pravda level of systemic lying and brazen propaganda from its incompetent agencies and the corporate whore media...

CREEP -- Committee to RE-Elect the President will escalate the false claims, data and statistics devoid of all fact and outrageous lying all the way to Diebold Vote Flip Day in November...

How this worthless, lanky bastard has any credibility with any US citizen is beyond me... Every lie that pours out of the B(L)S is purely for the benefit of Bullshit Barry...

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 06:13 | 2128188 therearetoomany...
therearetoomanyidiots's picture

I think it's the ears...

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:09 | 2127119 GCT
GCT's picture

Relax all go get a beer and some popcorn.  Do not get upset and stress out your liable to have a heart attack.  Enjoy your ride in the journey of life.  The superbowl is tomorrow and you can think of pleasant things, of course if your team looses your blood pressure may go too high.  Watch the commercials for a good laugh, for heaven sakes some of you need a good laugh after all.

We all know the numbers will be fudged to make this administration look good and the people will cheer him when he gets to his pulpit and tells them all he saved America.  Bam he will be a two term president and can continue to destroy our country.  Not alot you or  I can do about it.  I hope you have some PM's for this crap!!

Good day and happy Obama year!!  You better dig a bigger hole to hide in.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 19:03 | 2127326 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

happy 4 1/2 years of big bad fake bama.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:10 | 2127127 buzlightening
buzlightening's picture


Mark to fantasy bankster asset balance shit, with mark to fantasy employment numbers, in a mark to perception illusion the US is rising out of the great recession.

From what standard are we rising out of the recession?  Expansion through borrowing our way to prosperity.  Debt expansion built upon a foundation of fiat paper monies having value with nothing but hot air behind them. Massive debt with no one but the dead head feds to buy the worthless shitty debt gone wild; COMPOUNDING BY THE SECOND.

dead head feds want the US citizen to back up the full faith & reliability, maintaining CONfidence in our monetary system. While all is mortgaged to the hilt; rehypothecated many times over in a levered caldron of piping hot universal monetary sewage.  Very soon to sweep down off the Everest piled high BS, to drown us all  financially in the meltdown.  

More simply put.  The laws of sound economic fiscal policy are BROKEN so pathetically, we the people are piled high upon the precipice of financial lies.   Gravity has been voted out by the wooden heads in like manner fiscally.  We the people set up for the jump or the fall to financial road pizza.  You can't vote out irrevocable laws AS gravity ORLAWS GOVERNING fiscal economic stability and expect anything less than a crash and burn.   I smell bacon burning.  The pig men feeding from the peoples trough, swine that the rat bastard are.  It continues INTO ACCELERATION, as we apathetically watch the natural consequences of broken laws CAVE IN UPON US.  Initiated by one brain celled elected spineless jellyfish, who can't take their individual garbage curbside, let alone our nations.  All broken laws set in motion, continuing CONSEQUENTIALLY, to take their natural course of final financial destruction upon our nation.  The GREAT DEPRSSION II

What to do?  Pack your own economic life boat with monetary stores of value.  I'm not taking part in the insanity getting insaner from the top and piling down shit upon us. It's damned well self evident the food stamp line will not end at 50 million.  Apathy, allowing the economic solution to be solved at the top as lemmings line up for gov goon EASY fixes.    Individually enough of us will remain independent.  Free from government lunacy to rebuild the republic.  

Our founding fathers knew government exists to educate us on sound enduring principles, that each may learn to govern their own lives individually.  Free self sufficient people need less government not more. Live free or die.   OUR LEADERS HAVE LOST THEIR WAY AND TAKING DOWN TRUE FREEDOM WITH IT.  BLIND LEADING THE BLIND, BEST I SEE. CERTAINLY ONE NATION UNDER FRAUD!!!!



Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:13 | 2127134 hannah
hannah's picture

Barry Ritholz tried a couple years ago to beacome a 'tv pundit celebrity' but his block head looks and lack of a position ended that before it began. he couldnt decide what side of the fence he needed to be on to get on tv. funny as i had totally forgot who he was until mentioned here. i totally quit reading his forum.....

he is just another wannabee like denigger....both have lots 80% of their readership.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:22 | 2127153 GernB
GernB's picture

Sorry, but this i confusing to me. So tell me if I have thid right.

The BLS dumped census revisions of population figures into one month which then falsely shows a huge population jump in one month (January). However, they made no attemot to adjust prior months or other data to accurately show the real change in population between December and January.

The result is an artifical change in labor participation rate, which results in a drop in unemployement despite the fact it may in fact have gone up without the sudden and unrealistic jump in population.

Bottom line: BLS is uysing one month revisions to report changes which never happened in real life.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:13 | 2127251 hannah
hannah's picture

'...Sorry, but this i confusing to me. So tell me if I have thid right.'


are you mike tyson....?

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:27 | 2127166 FischerBlack
FischerBlack's picture

The appropriate headline on CNBC and Ritholz would have been 'Increase in Population Smashes Expectations!' Then we all could agree that the report was indeed a beat.



Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:30 | 2127170 Benjamin Simon
Benjamin Simon's picture

Sirs, with the exception of ETF I am finding the quality of the weekend commentary disheartening.  We must all try harder, myself included.  Although I am feeling rather BULLISH!


Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:46 | 2127174 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

U.S Pop = 312,961,000

Labor Force Participation 63% 

312,962,000 x .63 = 197,166,060 in the work force

312,962,000 - 197,166,060 = 115, 795, 940 Not in the work force

But we have 66,660,771 retires and on SSI

So let's subtract those from "not in the work force" 115, 795, 940 minus 66,660,771 = OH MY GOSH 49,135,169

What's so important about this number? It's almost equal to the exact number of food stamp recipients we have (47,178,000). You have to be dirt poor to qualify for food stamps, basically having a job that doesn't pay enough for you to afford food, or not have a job at all

So we have 15-16% REAL UNEMPLOYMENT or stuck in such a SHIT JOB that you can't afford food for yourself. '

50% UE rate for "African American" men between the age of 16 and 24!!!!

I got my numbers from here:

No stupid shit algorithm, or some shit "revision" based on some stupid shit, or any other shit. Just the fuckin' numbers with basic math 2+2 = 4


Fuck Obama

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:59 | 2127319 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

boogie down wonderland.  how many people are in prison?  kobe bryant rules!  nikes.  boogie down bros!


Sun, 02/05/2012 - 06:11 | 2128186 therearetoomany...
therearetoomanyidiots's picture

doode...Glee is on!

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 19:14 | 2127334 falak pema
falak pema's picture

maybe michelle can help u on that. I'm sure O'bammy is telling his own colour team : without me it would be worse! 

Is that possible? The rain is spain falls on 25% unemployed.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:32 | 2127177 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Revolutionary Guard starts military exercise in Iran's south

Iran: Oil ban will not halt nuclear program

Charles Krauthammer: Israel attack on Iran "certain"

OCCUPY DC : Cops attack McPherson Park!

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 06:09 | 2128184 therearetoomany...
therearetoomanyidiots's picture

Krauthamer is a prick.  I think he was revealed when Obama referred to him as a smart guy...


Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:40 | 2127193 Benjamin Simon
Benjamin Simon's picture

This is all priced in. Nothing to see here, move along.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 17:53 | 2127216 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

It's all about getting past technical areas on the charts, lies included.  If monday holds the gains this market can and probably will go even higher unless something happens.

Unfortunately I think I threw my hands up in the air and became a complete worthless alcoholic way too early, I may actually have to go flip burgers to get by waiting for it.  I hate wishing for it, but it seems inevitable and I wouldn't be one bit sad if the collapse started anytime now. Well truthfully there's already been a collapse but we don't need to discuss that it's old news.


Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:07 | 2127236 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

It would be a shame if you had to give up Alcoholism.  I remember a joke about someone Retired that said that he had become a Chemist in his Retirement.  Now he turns Alcohol into Urine every day.

Good Luck.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:01 | 2127230 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

In fact, this entire BS rally has been technical driven. How hillarious it is to listen to all the "technicals don't work" crowd when the FED has the best traders money can buy pointing out all the break down areas and next levels to jump over.  Anyone that knows charts well can plainly tell you that overnight futures pumps are notorius in this rally as they hop right over the next level of importance.   This is all fact btw, nothing speculative or conspiracy about it.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:11 | 2127248 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

That is what I find most amazing.  Is that when the ramp the Futures up it only costs pennies as no one is in the Market.  If they tried that during the day it would cost Millions.  Hence you get a lot of Gap Up's.  Then during the day the sell into them.

Really, interesting conclusion on your part.  That is why you do not hold overnight and play the next day.  Especially, if you are short, as you can always get a better entry point the next day.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:14 | 2127254 HD
HD's picture

Agreed.  This is an excellect short video showing how this happens.!

The higher we go on no volume, with few shorts, the faster we fall when "support" gives way. Think of how much has to go right to hold these levels in the next weeks. I think they are pumping the market to cushion the fall as much as possible.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:03 | 2127231 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture






Sat, 02/04/2012 - 19:04 | 2127328 falak pema
falak pema's picture

heretics have their uses...once the cat is out of the bag!

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:09 | 2127241 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

One last though is inverse relationship between the dollar and the markets.  Just like gold, the value of stocks aren't really going up they are just adjusting for the collapse in the dollar.  It will be interesting to see how Greece turns out of course Ben already said he would shield us from that impact.  The FED isn't the answer to everything but many people seem to believe they are. Eventually all the institutions are going to get nervouse. Someone at some point in time is going to go against Ben's "buy only" mandate and hit the sell button trying to protect their own sorry asses and it will be a stampede. Now that part is speculative but I think it's highly likely. And then the discussion of derivatives comes into play and complicates things even further.  The institution that is in charge of derivatives (JPM, GS, BAC, C and WFC---notice I put JPM at the front of the list as they are a better indicator of where the market is going now than is GS. JPM is the market) will probably be forced to declare that Greece isn't techinically a default in their eyes as to not set off a string of swaps which would wipe everyone one of them, along with us, out.

And curiously, as the alcohol sets in, how do the 1 in 100,000 people that actually own pm's in the physical plan on surviving when their surrounded by 99,000 pissed off starving motherfuckers that don't? The answer is they won't, no one is safe for what is coming.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:20 | 2127260 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

No one knows I own PM 'cept family.

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 02:09 | 2128048 Boxed Merlot
Boxed Merlot's picture

how do the 1 in 100,000 people that actually own pm's in the physical plan on surviving when their surrounded by 99,000...


It's not pms that allow survival.  The order is power, wealth, wisdom, strength, honor, glory and blessing.


Without a doubt, the voluntary adherence to the rule of law is the bedrock of a civilized society.  Historically, through the methods used in acquiring, purifying, assaying and minting pms, honesty, integrity and trustworthinesss in individuals, societies and nations has transcended mere words and have found authentication in the physical realm.


Truth trumps and is why sites like ZH are important.  Bogus copyrighted junk like Joe Smith and Mary Eddie's for profit "religious" insights are entertaining and the laws preventing others from profiting from their owner's creations may be rightfully exercised, but they bear no resemblence to truth and should be allowed to be riduculed as extensively and completely as the US government's attempts to present the dismal failure of Governor Corzine's engineered recovery adopted by our current president and his side kick, Mr. Biden in a favorable light.  imo.     

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:11 | 2127247 mcarthur
mcarthur's picture

See you later ZH.  I have had enough of your misinformation.  I'm also tired of your "drag everyone down to my depression filled level".  I doubt the world is going to blow up but you guys would be applauding if it did, I am sure.  Time to get some real jobs boys.   

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:22 | 2127263 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Mc Fluffer. You are responsible for your " OWN" , feelings. Take your meds. and avoid reality. TOOL!

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:44 | 2127299 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

See you later ZH

You...shall return...

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:47 | 2127301 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

says "mcarthur" (not MacArthur)... I'll look for a "mcarthur" on the dollar menu next time I'm at Mickey D's...

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 19:45 | 2127367 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture


Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:26 | 2127267 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Pretty sure you are talking to a bunch of dudes that are on Wall Street, are lawyers, Drs, etc. 

You have the shit backwards about the collapse....

You like this system?  You like that the BLS lies about its data?  You like that the GOP is trying to hand over Mitt or Newt as its candidate while ignoring Ron Paul who embodies small government?  You like that Obama starts war after war?  You like this shit?

When, not if, this shitshow ends, we will be able to clear the imaginary dust off our shoulders and rebuild. 

The collapse is not going to affect anyone, because the system wasn't real in the first place.  This is why saving the Banking Houses was a stupid idea.  People said we must save the banks or else it would be the end of the world, but then they turn around and call me a doomer!  Have you no sense, man?

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:30 | 2127279 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Go fuck yourself

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:35 | 2127471 ekm
ekm's picture

You must be the most avid reader of ZH. You will never leave. It is changing the way you think and you are and you do not want to accept it.

But, you will never leave, never.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 21:17 | 2127520 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture


Sun, 02/05/2012 - 05:36 | 2128164 GernB
GernB's picture

Yes, you're way is infintely better. Pretend all the bad news doesn't exist. That the FED is all powerful and can control ever individuals and corporations economic destiny. That the answer to a collapse caused by too much debt is more debt. And applaud every time the FED enables more government spending that can never be paid back, because hey, it will run the market up for a few more months.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:41 | 2127296 dataanalytics
dataanalytics's picture

Tyler, as usual your research and analysis is a cut above. Outstanding.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:54 | 2127310 Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture

You know how to kill the mood. Reality sucks.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 18:56 | 2127314 dataanalytics
dataanalytics's picture

I wouldn't be surprised at some point soon, when the BLS removes or hides a lot of the data from their site. Once smart guys like Tyler and some others figure how to disseminate ALL of their data, they go into full propaganda and panic mode.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 19:06 | 2127324 falak pema
falak pema's picture

is this relevant to your argument?


PRESENTING: The Gigantic Conspiracy To Inflate Jobs Numbers In America Joe Weisenthal | 3 hours ago

Read more:

Its now respectable to jump on the bandwagon, once the others have done the leg work!


Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:32 | 2127464 ekm
ekm's picture

Joe Wisenthal is an Obama enthusiast. He has lost any common sense since he assumed Obama to be his semi-god. Better check Henry Blodget's entries.

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 05:44 | 2128171 GernB
GernB's picture

You have to love how he shows a graph where ADP shows creation of less than 110,000 jobs and claims it lines up with BLS data showing 240,000 jobs. Huh? Nice argument.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 19:15 | 2127330 Element
Element's picture

Consumer Metrics Institute: 

A projection of our basic year-over-year data into an aggregate absolute demand, reflecting the compounding impact of extended expansions or contractions. The daily data is normalized such that the year-long average for 2005 would be at 100 in the chart.


The second chart showing 2008 to present is a doozy, with steadily falling online demand, then a kick up again mid last year.

That increased demand is where this employment is coming from.

But even then, online aggregate demand for durable goods is still about 8% lower in December, than the 2005 average demand.

But in April 2011 it was 22% lower! 

You'll get steady employment from that sort of demand recovery.

So what are credit and savings doing?


CMI's discussion from their Jan 27 2012 report (my emphasis):




Although the headline number of 2.75% certainly looks better than the prior quarter's 1.81% (and much closer to the growth rates of 3%-4% we might expect 11 quarters into a "recovery"), it turns out that the vast bulk of the improvement came from increasing inventory valuations -- a line item which by itself added nearly 3.3% to the headline number relative to the third quarter, over three times the aggregate headline improvement. Other observations include:


-- Consumer spending on goods surged, but was largely offset as consumer spending on services sagged. The aggregate improvement of 0.21% in consumer spending was accomplished even as "real" per capita disposable income was flat, indicating that some of that improvement (particularly since it was focused on goods) may simply be retail sales brought forward as a consequence of deep holiday discounting on the part of retailers. 


-- The growth rate for fixed private investments dropped by well over a percent, to an anemic 0.41% annualized rate. Even as businesses grew their inventories they were moderating the growth of their capital investments. 


-- Governments at all levels contracted their expenditures. State and local governments spent less on both operating expenses and capital improvements, while the flood of Federal fiscal spending has clearly ebbed. Perhaps the most alarming line item (or perhaps cheering, depending on your point of view) was the -0.73% annualized contraction rate in national defense spending. Even given the state of politics in a Presidential election year, it is hard to imagine that trend reversing over the next few quarters -- especially when ongoing military draw-downs and the inertia of Federal budgets are taken into consideration. 


-- Imports reverted to historical form, probably as a result of both firming commodity prices and diminishing impacts from the Japanese tsunami. There is no reason to expect that part of the GDP equation to do anything but weaken the headline number in the quarters ahead. 


-- If the highly positive swing in the inventory number is real, it is certainly not sustainable -- and when combined with actual consumer spending the numbers themselves would be prima facie evidence that manufacturers over-corrected in anticipation of huge holiday spending. Such an over-correction should lead to reversals in the coming quarters. On the other hand, if the swing is an artifact of firming commodity prices it is just a further indication that the headline number is hopelessly noisy -- subject to erratic phantom movements as the BEA's "deflaters" struggle to track pricing changes. 


Despite the improved headline data, we're not convinced that there is much meaningful positive information in the latest GDP report. We believe that the improvements in consumer spending on goods is likely only a natural form of consumer self-medication for the malaise of extended "frugality fatigue" -- in this case enticed by massive retailer discounting during the fourth quarter. 


More importantly, those sales may have only pulled spending forward from the coming quarter. There has been no improvement in real per capita disposable income that could warrant any increase in consumer spending, and the fourth quarter splurge on goods is likely coming from a draw-down in savings, a partially offsetting decrease in spending on services and extra "pocket money" from lower at-pump gasoline prices. At a macro level those funding sources have been augmented by an enormous expansion of student loans and (for a non-trivial portion of all households) unprecedented rent-free living as a consequence of vastly extended foreclosure proceedings. With the exception of the rent-free and student loan components (for which there simply are no horizons or painless end-games), all of the probable sources for the increased consumer spending will probably revert to historical norms during 2012. 


And lastly, the volatility of the inventory parts of the BEA's equation continue to distort the headline number enough to render it useless as a source of genuine economic information. In the best of times the inventory data provided by the BEA is late and incomplete, but it is necessitated by the need within the BEA's equations to reconcile the production based manufacturing portions of their equation to the consumption based consumer portions. Because of that it is both partly plugged (at least in the monthly and quarterly updates) and highly susceptible to fluctuations in pricing levels. 


In short, this report is disturbing because of how the headline number masks real and troubling weakness in the more substantive details. 


Hopefully anyone trying to engineer the economy is basing their tinkering on better information than that provided by the BEA. In fact, it is likely that much of the negative consequences of the recent economic event can be attributed to precisely the poor quality and timeliness of the economic and monetary information available to those whose hubris drives them to such tinkering.



Statistical and economic tinkering bitchez!

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:17 | 2127422 dataanalytics
dataanalytics's picture

Consumer spending did indeed surge, especially during the TWO week thanksgiving SALES and MONTH long Christmas SALES- So the bottom line means NOTHING. Why? Because even though consumption was up, due to the FIRE SALE prices...PROFITS were actually DOWN for most ALL retailers.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:35 | 2127470 Element
Element's picture

Which is one of the points CMI was making.

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 06:00 | 2128176 therearetoomany...
therearetoomanyidiots's picture

Except the likes of Tiffany...whose sales soared.   Hmm, go figure, must some how be related to the tax withholdings increase due to the bonuses - to the bastards at the top of the food chain, oh, and Govt employees like the 32 'asistants' each of the vermont senators/rep have.   Time for the pitchforks...seriously.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 19:41 | 2127363 riskman
riskman's picture

This is driven by regulatory uncertainty, particularly due to Basel III:

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 19:47 | 2127368 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Hey Papa Swamp?... I'm long ( SUPER VOLCANOS)...   Trading hints appreciated. 

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:37 | 2127473 Element
Element's picture

Face masks, hydroponics, winter clothing, a heavy duty umbrella ... and geothermal energy.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 19:47 | 2127370 mailll
mailll's picture

If 12,758,000 gave up looking for work, the unemployment rate would be 0% (They would no longer be counted as unemployed).

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 22:09 | 2127632 Bear
Bear's picture

That will be the rate, reported by the BLS, in October 2012 ... Happy days are here again for the 12,758,000 who will 'retire' before the election

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:05 | 2127396 death_to_fed_tyranny
death_to_fed_tyranny's picture

Ritholtz ryhmes with shitholtz. Fuck you Barry! You overpaid mouthpiece of the lie machine!

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:12 | 2127411 ekm
ekm's picture

I used to love what Ritholtz wrote, until I started blogging on his blog. He would block my entries and I didn't swear at all. It's supposed to be a anonymous blog. I got frustrated, but ultimately it's his blog.

He was really good but has become too main stream. Disapointed. I agree with the meaning of what you're saying, but disagree with the way of expressing it. The fuck thing is over the top, but the rest seems to be ok.

Anyway, all in all, agree.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:16 | 2127424 death_to_fed_tyranny
death_to_fed_tyranny's picture

Good that you agree. And Fuck you too!

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:19 | 2127432 ekm
ekm's picture

That's why we all love ZH. It's anonymous and everything and everybody is allowed to post, for or against. Freedom for all.

Thx for the fuck offer but I don't think the rectum is a suitable channel for penis entry.

Human history has shown that the use of eliminating excrement is performed quite well by that part of the body.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 04:11 | 2129975 Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture


"Ritholtz ryhmes with shitholtz. Fuck you Barry! You overpaid mouthpiece of the lie machine!"



Podcast: Barry Ritholtz and a tale of two media
Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:06 | 2127399 ekm
ekm's picture

Any government data nowadays is totally bogus. It just serves the policy, not the economy. Same as in China.

COCAINATED EASING 1 and 2 (or differently known as QE1 and QE2) were experiments that went bad. Nobody wants food riots in USA due to ever arising food prices.

Economic data were reported "very bad" prior to Cocainated Easing 1 and 2, but now they are reported "good".

No Cocainated Easing 3. It's over. The government is telling the people, no more FINANCIAL COCAINE.  

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:07 | 2127405 dataanalytics
Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:10 | 2127410 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Z/H ROCKS! It's about F..king time!

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:13 | 2127416 ekm
ekm's picture

God bless ZH.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:47 | 2127482 Element
Element's picture

And the final sentence hit the nail on the head ... sort of:


"... As long as your labor force doesn’t grow, even anemic-to-modest job growth can [SEEM TO] chip away at the unemployment rate."

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:16 | 2127425 BORT
BORT's picture

Gasoline Usage for the four weeks ending 1/27/2012 was 7.3% below the same date in 2011.  Someone isn't driving to work.

These are not fudged.  Also, Michigan is stopping the emergency extended unemployment because unemployment dropped below the trigger.  Happy winter citizens

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:26 | 2127448 ekm
ekm's picture

45% of Crude oil is used for driving cars in the form of gasoline. The rest of used to manufacture plastic, clothes, freeze food and transport good in the form of diezel which gets calculated into clothes and food prices.

Hence, if gasoline usage dropped 7.3%yoy on the 45% portion of crude, hence people are spending less on clothes and food in order to save money or for lack of money and too much debt.

It doesn't look to me that there is any higher demand for Crude Oil, it seems to me it's lower and lower. Unlike what IEA is blubbing. As any government agency, they are just making up the numbers of "world demand" when the whole world is in depression.

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:26 | 2127449 The_Emperor
The_Emperor's picture

The real economy lost 2,689,000 jobs, while net of the adjustment, it actually gained 243,000 jobs: a delta of 2,932,000 jobs based solely on statistical assumptions in an excel spreadsheet!


They are probably using a code like that :)


Sub BLS_BS ()

Dim Election_Date as Date

Dim Created_Jobs as Integer

If  ((Election_Date - today() ) <365)

Then (Created_Jobs + 2,932,000)

End Sub

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:29 | 2127456 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Can the " GHOST STOPS" eur/chf, get taken on Super Bullshit Sunday?  Highly Unlikely...

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:48 | 2127486 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture



Surprisingly, no one looked up Barry.

  1. I'm Chief Market Strategist for an institutional research firm, and the Chief Economics Commentator for an asset management firm.
  2. I'm a fan of anything which can hold my attention (deficit) for more than a few moments

Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:53 | 2127495 ekm
ekm's picture

I can't make out whether you like him or not, but he blocks entries and that's a NO NO for a blog. I annoyed him so much that he totally blocked me out. That's not freedom of expression and that's why I don't want to contribute to his blog even with a different blog name. I'm out.

I still maintain he's become mainstream. Worth to be read from time to time, but not daily like ZH.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!