Export Miracle Over!

Tyler Durden's picture

We have discussed the 'field-of-dreams'-like dreamscape that manufacturers have been living in for the last year at length as 'if-we-build-it' inventories are stacked to the ceiling relative to sales. Today's Global PMI data from Markit Economics provides confirming evidence that the miracle of self-fulfilling exporting is rapidly coming to an end.

From their report: "Conditions in the global manufacturing sector remained broadly stagnant in October. Levels of production and new orders fell slightly over the month, while new export orders declined at the quickest pace for almost two-and-a-half years."


And drilling down into individual country export orders, it seems clear that supply-siders the world over will be scrambling to adjust forecasts:

It seems that the rolling over of forward EPS estimates for S&P 500 companies is starting to get fundamental backing from macro-based forecasts also - hardly the setting for multiple-expansion in an equity market facing so many unknown unknowns.

Source: Markit Economics

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
GeneMarchbanks's picture

We're doubling exports by 2015, OK?

What part don't you understand Durden?

Meanwhile I have no clue what happens to this 'market' tomorrow.

hedgeless_horseman's picture



Fun with words and statistics...


WASHINGTON — In promising Wednesday night to double the United States’ export growth over the next five years, President Obama set an ambitious goal for American trade policy that, he said, could create two million jobs.



...and using job creation as cover for currency debasement and the resulting increase in the inflation tax.

trav7777's picture

mercantilists steaming flank into demand collapse means prices stay low for a long time.  Despite the fact that we can't afford it, they are unwilling to lay off anyone in production and they just keep producing

Fukushima Sam's picture

Anyone else think those two peaks at the end should be labeled "QE1" and "QE2"?

hedgeless_horseman's picture

Nobody noticed the stop sign?

disabledvet's picture

From that chart it would appear "exporters only need apply" on that score. From Russia with Love time?

fuu's picture

You have to be a contributor.

Deadpool's picture

headless horseshit is a contributor?

Deadpool's picture

I bought a shirt once...guess that doesn't count.

pavman's picture

Oh sure.... the 1% mentality on this site of giving special privileges to donators definitely light the fires of OWS against Zerohedge.  FOR SHAME! 

I'm going to stay on this site until the police come and start beating me with batons and shooting me with rubber bullets!  Occupy Zero Hedge!

uhb's picture

You CAN post a link to a picture, like hhs

You cannot insert the pic itself into your comment

Taint Boil's picture

headless horseshit is a contributor?

No he uses magic ...........

Deadpool's picture

maybe s/he can cure your rectal affliction with that magic. You are now both my mortal enemies and I will "skewer" (boil pun intended) you at every turn. Salute, bitch.

Just fuckin' with ya, I couldn't give two shits about either of you.

Arius's picture

it seems to me someone is losing big .... welcome to ZH 12 steps recovery program ...

first step - stop shooting the messenger ... w/ or without ZH Titanic is going to sink ....

fuu's picture

Most Americans couldn't tell you how many sides a stop sign has.

Tsar Pointless's picture


But even I know that if a stop sign has a white line around its border, then the stop sign is optional after 8 p.m.

What, you don't believe everything you've ever been told?

pavman's picture

What about fancy stop signs with blinking led lights and solar panels? 

"Oh boo hoo, we don't have enough money to run the government...we need more taxes." ...maybe you should stop buying expensive ass blinkin' stop signs!

spinone's picture

two - a back and a front.

Mark123's picture

Sweet....all those shiny new Chrysler's looking for a sub-prime loan....

disabledvet's picture

Don't tell me that market's next? How good are these guys?

DosZap's picture

Me, I am still waiting for the last 2 Million jobs he CREATED to show themselves.

rosiescenario's picture

You are obviously not a fast food fan....

Mike2756's picture

Or a flood, you have to think big.

smlbizman's picture

i just got a call from my car salesmen...i better hurry down, that white dodge i was looking is about to be sold....  

Sancho Ponzi's picture

No problem. Bankster buddy Bernanke will announce QE3, the dollar will sink faster than the hopes of the American middle class, and exports will rise.

wombats's picture

Nobody important cares if exports rise. Nobody important cares about the middle class.  Nobody important cares about the US Dollar.

The only thing that matters is what TBTB can/will do to drive profits at GS.

GS bonuses are the only economic metric that matters.


GeneMarchbanks's picture

Begs the question: how does one export services and hope?

Mark123's picture

Let's go for the benevolent dictator and put Disneyland in charge of the entire country.  Fireworks every night.

uhb's picture

What exports? the USA had the last trade surplus in..  wait... 1975!

Maybe exports of precious metals to asia, yes. but aside of that.... 

disabledvet's picture

And trillions of treasuries. How valuable are those things?

Deadpool's picture

so much for any concerns of inflation on the horizon...supply/demand.

tarsubil's picture

Yeah, probably a little collapse and deflation then the helicopters get fired up to help us with demand. We need more demand!

1835jackson's picture

I want to rock and roll all night and party everday

obthedgehog's picture

As long as you remain faithful to your new wife while you're doing it.

In the meantime this is the typical arguing style of the clueless:  if your opponent points out the holes in your argument, change the subject.  If we aren't creating jobs through real, organic growth, debase the currency and crow about the export jobs 'created', even while the rest of the economy craters.  All in a way that not one man in a million will be able to discern...

Smiddywesson's picture

Sure, 1.3 billion mouths to feed, 290 different languages, every religion known to man, empty cities, toppling buildings, crashing trains, poisoned food, bankrupt cities, and a housing bubble that is bursting.  Sure, China is just great.

The West is sunk, even if the trade barriers that are coming don't go up, they can't buy Chinese trinkets.  Speaking of different religions and languages, did I mention the young guys with no jobs and no girlfriend because the One Child policy led to all the girls being aborted?  That's a real recipe for success.  Don't worry, we kicked out Google, that will fix everything.

Alex Kintner's picture

A bright spot: Export of US Jobs is still very strong. So there's THAT.

virgilcaine's picture

Electricity is needed to export.. something in short supply in the NE US.  Who needs heat, running water, lights.?

El Viejo's picture

And the next collapse will begin in 9...8...7...6...5...4...

curbyourrisk's picture


DOT's picture

Denmark wins !

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Down in Peru, our company is doing its bit to keep Korean exports up.  Just give us a little more liquidity, and we will back up the truck on buying their bearings!