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Export Miracle Over!

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We have discussed the 'field-of-dreams'-like dreamscape that manufacturers have been living in for the last year at length as 'if-we-build-it' inventories are stacked to the ceiling relative to sales. Today's Global PMI data from Markit Economics provides confirming evidence that the miracle of self-fulfilling exporting is rapidly coming to an end.

From their report: "Conditions in the global manufacturing sector remained broadly stagnant in October. Levels of production and new orders fell slightly over the month, while new export orders declined at the quickest pace for almost two-and-a-half years."

 

And drilling down into individual country export orders, it seems clear that supply-siders the world over will be scrambling to adjust forecasts:

It seems that the rolling over of forward EPS estimates for S&P 500 companies is starting to get fundamental backing from macro-based forecasts also - hardly the setting for multiple-expansion in an equity market facing so many unknown unknowns.

Source: Markit Economics

 

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Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:07 | 1837141 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

We're doubling exports by 2015, OK?

What part don't you understand Durden?

Meanwhile I have no clue what happens to this 'market' tomorrow.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:12 | 1837154 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Fun with words and statistics...

 

WASHINGTON — In promising Wednesday night to double the United States’ export growth over the next five years, President Obama set an ambitious goal for American trade policy that, he said, could create two million jobs.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/29/business/29trade.html

...and using job creation as cover for currency debasement and the resulting increase in the inflation tax.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:16 | 1837189 FinHits
FinHits's picture

I Demand more Supply!

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:34 | 1837278 trav7777
trav7777's picture

mercantilists steaming flank into demand collapse means prices stay low for a long time.  Despite the fact that we can't afford it, they are unwilling to lay off anyone in production and they just keep producing

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 13:49 | 1837639 Fukushima Sam
Fukushima Sam's picture

Anyone else think those two peaks at the end should be labeled "QE1" and "QE2"?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:29 | 1837257 uhb
uhb's picture

No sweat! 2*0=0

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:06 | 1837146 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Nobody noticed the stop sign?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:07 | 1837151 xtop23
xtop23's picture

 Hilarious

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:09 | 1837157 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

The print sign is green however.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:33 | 1837262 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

From that chart it would appear "exporters only need apply" on that score. From Russia with Love time?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:12 | 1837176 Deadpool
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how does ya post a picture?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:14 | 1837183 fuu
fuu's picture

You have to be a contributor.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:27 | 1837249 Deadpool
Deadpool's picture

headless horseshit is a contributor?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:31 | 1837260 hedgeless_horseman
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You sure do talk big.

http://www.zerohedge.com/donate

 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:33 | 1837274 Deadpool
Deadpool's picture

I bought a shirt once...guess that doesn't count.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 13:26 | 1837549 pavman
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Oh sure.... the 1% mentality on this site of giving special privileges to donators definitely light the fires of OWS against Zerohedge.  FOR SHAME! 

I'm going to stay on this site until the police come and start beating me with batons and shooting me with rubber bullets!  Occupy Zero Hedge!

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:31 | 1837263 uhb
uhb's picture

You CAN post a link to a picture, like hhs

You cannot insert the pic itself into your comment

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:43 | 1837347 Taint Boil
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headless horseshit is a contributor?

No he uses magic ...........

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 13:04 | 1837390 Deadpool
Deadpool's picture

maybe s/he can cure your rectal affliction with that magic. You are now both my mortal enemies and I will "skewer" (boil pun intended) you at every turn. Salute, bitch.

Just fuckin' with ya, I couldn't give two shits about either of you.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 13:28 | 1837569 Arius
Arius's picture

it seems to me someone is losing big .... welcome to ZH 12 steps recovery program ...

first step - stop shooting the messenger ... w/ or without ZH Titanic is going to sink ....

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:13 | 1837177 fuu
fuu's picture

Most Americans couldn't tell you how many sides a stop sign has.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:19 | 1837203 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

True.

But even I know that if a stop sign has a white line around its border, then the stop sign is optional after 8 p.m.

What, you don't believe everything you've ever been told?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 13:23 | 1837544 pavman
pavman's picture

What about fancy stop signs with blinking led lights and solar panels? 

"Oh boo hoo, we don't have enough money to run the government...we need more taxes." ...maybe you should stop buying expensive ass blinkin' stop signs!

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:21 | 1837217 spinone
spinone's picture

two - a back and a front.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:24 | 1837233 Mark123
Mark123's picture

Sweet....all those shiny new Chrysler's looking for a sub-prime loan....

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:35 | 1837288 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Don't tell me that market's next? How good are these guys?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 13:06 | 1837466 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Me, I am still waiting for the last 2 Million jobs he CREATED to show themselves.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 14:38 | 1837933 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

You are obviously not a fast food fan....

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:37 | 1837298 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

Or a flood, you have to think big.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:55 | 1837408 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

i just got a call from my car salesmen...i better hurry down, that white dodge i was looking is about to be sold....  

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:06 | 1837148 Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

No problem. Bankster buddy Bernanke will announce QE3, the dollar will sink faster than the hopes of the American middle class, and exports will rise.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:15 | 1837172 wombats
wombats's picture

Nobody important cares if exports rise. Nobody important cares about the middle class.  Nobody important cares about the US Dollar.

The only thing that matters is what TBTB can/will do to drive profits at GS.

GS bonuses are the only economic metric that matters.

 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:20 | 1837211 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

+QE to infinity!

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:19 | 1837207 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Begs the question: how does one export services and hope?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:27 | 1837246 Mark123
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Let's go for the benevolent dictator and put Disneyland in charge of the entire country.  Fireworks every night.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:33 | 1837276 uhb
uhb's picture

What exports? the USA had the last trade surplus in..  wait... 1975!

Maybe exports of precious metals to asia, yes. but aside of that.... 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:38 | 1837303 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

And trillions of treasuries. How valuable are those things?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:11 | 1837171 Deadpool
Deadpool's picture

so much for any concerns of inflation on the horizon...supply/demand.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:27 | 1837251 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Yeah, probably a little collapse and deflation then the helicopters get fired up to help us with demand. We need more demand!

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:16 | 1837187 1835jackson
1835jackson's picture

I want to rock and roll all night and party everday

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:35 | 1837287 obthedgehog
obthedgehog's picture

As long as you remain faithful to your new wife while you're doing it.

In the meantime this is the typical arguing style of the clueless:  if your opponent points out the holes in your argument, change the subject.  If we aren't creating jobs through real, organic growth, debase the currency and crow about the export jobs 'created', even while the rest of the economy craters.  All in a way that not one man in a million will be able to discern...

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:40 | 1837319 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

And when that fails?....

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:28 | 1837252 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

China kicks ass!

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:54 | 1837404 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Sure, 1.3 billion mouths to feed, 290 different languages, every religion known to man, empty cities, toppling buildings, crashing trains, poisoned food, bankrupt cities, and a housing bubble that is bursting.  Sure, China is just great.

The West is sunk, even if the trade barriers that are coming don't go up, they can't buy Chinese trinkets.  Speaking of different religions and languages, did I mention the young guys with no jobs and no girlfriend because the One Child policy led to all the girls being aborted?  That's a real recipe for success.  Don't worry, we kicked out Google, that will fix everything.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:35 | 1837289 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

A bright spot: Export of US Jobs is still very strong. So there's THAT.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:44 | 1837340 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Electricity is needed to export.. something in short supply in the NE US.  Who needs heat, running water, lights.?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:49 | 1837378 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

And the next collapse will begin in 9...8...7...6...5...4...

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:56 | 1837419 curbyourrisk
curbyourrisk's picture

DEFLATION BITCHEZ!!!!!

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 13:01 | 1837437 DOT
DOT's picture

Denmark wins !

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 13:41 | 1837615 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Down in Peru, our company is doing its bit to keep Korean exports up.  Just give us a little more liquidity, and we will back up the truck on buying their bearings!

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 13:51 | 1837646 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

unhhh...

...what's that i see?

the 5-6th month of the recession?

or...SATAN?????

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 13:53 | 1837653 Mark Noonan
Mark Noonan's picture

I just get the impression that a gigantic number of people who run actual companies simply follow along with whatever the "experts" are saying.  As though most CEOs, having risen by connections rather than merit, simply haven't got the ability to look and think.  Now, its all coming up against the brick wall...the wall this said in 2008 "this economy is dead and only massive reforms will fix it".

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 15:00 | 1838061 RobertMugabe
RobertMugabe's picture

Bullish

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:48 | 1838821 KandiRaverHipster
KandiRaverHipster's picture

do they include poop as an export?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:50 | 1838834 wkwillis
wkwillis's picture

If we look at what people are doing, as opposed to saying, they believe that six months inventory in a warehouse is preferable to six months money in the bank.

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