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Fab Five Fed-y: Which Fed Chairman Has Done The Best "Dual Mandate" Job?
While one can talk until one is blue in the face about the pros and cons of the current central bank's (mis)deeds over the past 7 years, the reality is that most people are backward-looking (i.e., economists), not forward (which of course explains the prevalence of speculation as to whether the Fed's exponentially rising balance sheet will result in hyperdeflation or hyperinflation). As such, one can, for now at least, judge the Fed merely in the context of what it has achieved to date, not by the seeds of destruction it has planted. So how has Ben Bernanke performed so far when compared to his previous 4 predecessors, at least based on those two now completely irrelevant, but still oddly believed mandates: inflation and unemployment (because by now we all know that even the Chairman himself admitted the only thing that matters to the Fed is the Russell 2000 closing value). Below we present the Fed's accomplishments in the arena of inflation and jobs in the context of the past 60 years split by Chairmen starting with Martin (remember the 1951 Accord?), then going to Burns/Miller, Volcker, Greenspan and finally Bernanke. So who has been the fabbest among the Fed-est? You decide.
Inflation:
BofA's commentary:
"On target inflation: On target inflation: Under Bernanke the Fed has adopted and hit a 2% target for inflation for the PCE deflator, with headline inflation averaging 2.17% and the core 1.87%. Moreover, by almost any measure, under Bernanke inflation has been the lowest of any modern Fed chairman. Fed officials have made clear that inflation can be both too low (as in 2009) and too high (as in 2007). However, if the Bernanke-led Fed has a secret plan to create high inflation, it is certainly failing."
And Unemployment:
"Off target unemployment: The Bernanke-led Fed has done much worse on hitting its full employment mandate. The unemployment rate has averaged 7.2% during his term compared to the 5.9% average of the last 60 years. While some of this high rate may be structural and out of the Fed’s control, most of the increase is cyclical."
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The first one that resigns in an episode of shameful despair.
What a crock. Comparing these 5 across these criteria in the absence of the context in which they have occurred is ridiculous.
Just another attempt to malign Bernanke who, I might add, has faced the worst economic conditions since the GReat Depression - you might have heard that soemwhere before.
This article is a joke.
When you have increasingly rigged inflation numbers and unemployment numbers over the past 20 years, any historical comparison is meaningless.
Inflation is running at 10% using the 1980s BLS calculation method.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data
Like baseball statistics without considering the juicing.
Also, the reward of lowering rates is felt today, while the problems are felt when rates are not longer lowered or are raised. Hence, what appears to have been a good job by Martin just set the stage for Volker's problems when he had to make up for Martin's mistakes. Likewise, Greenspan set the stage for Bernanke to feel the pain. The difference between Bernanke and Volker, though, is that Bernanke has yet to raise rates and kill the inflation beast, which is when the real pain will be apparent.
agreed. Hopefully someone will re-write this article and use the data adjusted to specific time periods. That would be interesting. Showing this data as is was pretty meaningless.
ratso - you mean the "worst economic conditions" that he helped to create ?
No, you must be thinking of Greenspan and Bush as well as Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Bros, Bear Stearns, etc - the real authors of American economic chaos.
So were clear on the most powerful financial force.
Fed's duel mandate.......rape and pillage
It's only got one mandate -- fraud.
Even the "dual" anything is a fucking lie.
END THE FUCKING FRAUD-FED
Pick the best leader of an organization that's corrupt and broken in it's design in the first place?
What's the point?
The first one that's tarred and feathered in the village square (rhymes with Gene's above!).
That's the gravy skimmed off of all y'alls working backs.
Remember that.
pods
The only job Bernanke can do well is giving Blow jobs, and even then I wouldn't have any confidence in his skills.
FUCK YOU Bernanke.
Huh? Sorry, I was busy watching the equities markets get ass slammed higher by the Fed.
What is this about, again?
Try being a little more dickish, we need a new Trav. I'm a fan regardless.
(channeling Arnold Horschack)
Oh Oh Oh....BofA wants Ben to print more $ to raise its stock pr...er...to battle the unemployment problem
BS again on hyper speed.
Talk about cooked numbers...
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While some of this high rate may be structural and out of the Fed’s control, most of the increase is cyclical."
This is Benspeak. BofA must have the same writing corps as Ben himself. What a remarkable, remarkable coincidence!
Pre Volcker the country still had non-Chipotle/Starbuck part time jobs and a manufacturing base.
1980-2012 is a stagnation phase where employment was off-shored and profits "on-shored".
FED policy now is to benefit banks and debt-laden governments; as well as to reflate the bubble by encouraging more individual borrowing at "historically low rates" that of course will be raised as soon as everyone is locked into another ARM or credit card debt.
Fundamental shifts away from rural homesteads and manufacturing to a nearly total suburban microwave meal service/information economy.
Hard times then and hard times now will be completely different.
How can you even analyse their performance because all the data they are being judged against is incorrect/fiddled/fudged/lies?
In particular, the last few years of 'data'....anyone actually takes any of it SERIOUSLY? omfg
This is just a Bernank puff piece ran on ZH, its slimy. Frankly I'd expect to see this on CNBC or MW.
Isn't the nickname for Ben - CHAIRSATAN??? I scanned the info rather quickly, saw sheepdog-one's comment and immediately concurred. WGAF about whether the people back in the 60's or 70 liked their bankers! I would seem to remember that in just one piece of Americana - ITS A WONDERFUL LIFE - yes there is a benelovent banker - but there is also a evil banker as well - MR POTTER - anyways, the point here is this, most of the bankers that you run across in the movies, tv, books, etc... are EVIL. And for good reason, they are the epitome of destruction and life sucking ghouls. Can I say much more??!!
I recall there was the good S&L banker, the evil investment banker, and the malevolent, short, ugly, sour, suspicious regulator. Remember the regulator? They feared him. Those days are OVER.
Graph fake data, then draw conclusions from it. What else can I say but LOL.
Reverse Straw Man.
If you measure inflation using the same metrics used during Burns (comparing apples to apples), under Bernanke inflation is even higher than it was under Burns -- inflation is over 8% under Bernanke.
Inflation: Not as Low as You Think (not as low as government and BofA propaganda lies want you to think)
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505144_162-57387655/inflation-not-as-low-as-you-think/
ShadowStats has it over 11%. But anyway, running charts about obviously faked data is just more propaganda. What was this chart from, Bernank's college kid lecture tour?
How confident are you that your policies won't cause unpresidented accumilation of wealth for the top 1%
BEN: Next question.
How confident are you that you can get the peasants to ignore this fact and take out their frustrations out on people swiping EBT cards.
BEN: 100%
7 Years??
Let's at least travel back to the appointment of 'The Master of Disaster' circa 1987, eh.
One day closer to Global Hyperinflationary D-Pression~
Boo to the misdirection.
"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" - Mark Twain
"Lies, damned lies, and BOA Press Releases"
Bernanke did a great job in lying about inflation.
"Pay no attention to the prices you are paying at the grocery store and the gas pump. Believe what I say, not what you pay."
Yeah, bring back Volcker.
Obligatory blog spam link follows (not off-topic at least):
http://cogent-thoughts.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/next-fed-chairman.html
If you add the average inflation and unemployment figures (i.e., the 'misery index'), Volcker gets the worst score of the five.
But then, Volcker came on board in 1979, when inflation was already in double digits.
A more pertinent measure would be how much each chairman REDUCED the misery index during his tenure.
"the prevalence of speculation as to whether the Fed's exponentially rising balance sheet..."
Didn't ZH teach me that it was flow not stock?
May be i just don't understand.