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Faber: "Middle East Will Go Up In Flames" ... "Have To Be In Precious Metals And Equities"

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From GoldCore

Faber: "Middle East Will Go Up In Flames" ... "Have To Be In Precious Metals And Equities"

Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,685.60, EUR 1,282.24 and GBP 1,068.26 per ounce.

Yesterday's AM fix was  USD 1,698.00, EUR 1,286.17 and GBP 1,073.60 per ounce.

Gold fell $6.30 in New York yesterday and closed above the $1,700/oz level at $1,705.30/oz. Gold fell in Asia prior to further modest price falls in Europe which saw it fall below yesterday's inter day low of $1,694/oz. Gold is now trading at $1,686.40/oz.

Gold’s short term technicals are poor and a further correction to or below the 200-day moving average at $1,670/oz is possible (see Barcap view below). However, it is worth noting that gold’s weakness has coincided with recent dollar strength and gold has not fallen as much in euro, pound or other fiat currency terms.

The fundamentals of significant macroeconomic, systemic  and monetary risk will support the precious metals. As will the increasingly risky geopolitical situation - the risk of which is not priced into markets just yet.

Swiss money manager and long term bear Marc Faber, aka "Dr Doom", says political risk in the Middle East has increased significantly with war between Iran and Israel “almost inevitable”, and precious metals and equities investments offer some safety.

"Political risk was high six months ago and is higher now. I think sooner or later, the U.S. or Israel will strike Iran - it's almost inevitable," Faber, who publishes the widely read Gloom Boom and Doom Report, told Reuters on the sidelines of an investment conference.

Brent crude traded near $123 per barrel in volatile trade on Tuesday on fears of a disruption in Iranian supplies. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu showed no signs of backing away from possible military action against Iran following a Monday meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama.

"Say war breaks out in the Middle East or anywhere else, (U.S. Federal Reserve chairman) Mr Bernanke will just print even more money -- they have no option...they haven't got the money to finance a war," said Faber.

"You have to be in precious metals and equities ... most wars and most social unrest haven't destroyed corporations - they usually survive," he said.

He said that Middle East markets had largely bottomed out, though regime changes from the Arab Spring revolutions were unlikely to be investor-friendly.

Faber said that in uncertain times, investors had to reconcile themselves to volatility.

"If you can't live with volatility, stay in bed," he said, pointing out that even cash [sic].

The 66 year-old, who has earned the moniker "Dr Doom", earlier told the conference that the likelihood of war in the Middle East was boosted by Western powers' imperatives of keeping China in check, given its dependence on Middle Eastern oil.

"The Americans and the western powers know very well they cannot contain China economically.... but one way to contain China is to switch on and switch off the oil tap from the Middle East," he said.

"I happen to think the Middle East will go up in flames," he said.

Barclays Capital: Gold Support At 200 Day At $1670/oz - Buy Gold Dip

Barclays Capital said in a report that gold faces near term hurdles such as bouts of dollar strength, broad risk reduction and profit taking, but this is a healthy correction and the broader macro backdrop remains gold favourable.

Barcap analysts see downside gold support at the 200-day moving average at $1670 and then at $1645. Upside resistance is at $1730/$1760 and at $1800 and a close above $1800 would confirm further upside as the broader macro backdrop remains gold favourable.

Given the negative interest rate environment, longer-term inflationary concerns and lingering sovereign debt uncertainties.

Barcap said a weekly close below $1,719/oz will force it to adopt a neutral near-term bias on the precious metal and "in such an instance, risk would increase for a re-test of the 200-day average near $1,670/oz and an extension of the six-month range trade before gaining traction in the second half of the year."

OTHER NEWS

(Reuters Global Gold Forum) -- Industrial & Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC), world's most valuable lender, gold leasing business reached 62.8 T of physical metal last year. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China's started leasing gold in January last year and lends out to a year. 

(Bloomberg) -- Cash Gold in China Falls for Second Day, Futures Little Changed

Gold of 99.99 percent purity on the Shanghai Gold Exchange fell for a second day, tracking an overnight decline in international bullion prices. The benchmark cash contract slid as much as 0.7 percent to 345.50 yuan a gram, and last traded at 347 yuan. June-delivery metal was little changed at 348.73 yuan a gram on the Shanghai Futures Exchange.

(Bloomberg) -- Silver Calls at Highest Since 2010 on Economic Recovery: Options

Options traders are the most bullish in 16 months on an exchange-traded fund tracking silver, this year’s best-performing metal, betting it will continue its rally as the global economy recovers.

The ratio of calls to buy the iShares Silver Trust versus puts to sell rose to 1.88-to-1 on March 2 and touched 1.93 on Feb. 24, the highest level since October 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Traders pushed the price of calls that pay should the exchange-traded fund rise 10 percent last week to the highest level since April versus puts betting on a decline of the same size, data on 30-day contracts show.

Investors are increasing speculation on gains after silver surged 21 percent this year through yesterday, more than any other commodity in the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 raw materials except gasoline. A recovery of the worldwide economy and central banks’ injection of stimulus are spurring demand for the metal, according to BGC Partners Inc.’s Michael Purves.

“There’s optimism among silver call buyers,” Donald Selkin, the New York-based chief market strategist at National Securities Corp., which manages about $3 billion, said yesterday in a phone interview. “It’s a bet that silver will continue advancing based on the industrial usage and the economic improvement, as well as a flight to safety.”

Silver prices have swung along with economic projections over the past year. Futures on the metal jumped 90 percent between Jan. 28, 2011, and the three-decade high of $49.845 an ounce reached on April 25. They then dropped 48 percent through Dec. 29 before climbing 29 percent through yesterday’s settlement of $33.695 an ounce. In 2011, industrial demand accounted for 56 percent of silver consumption, according to data compiled by Toronto-Dominion Bank.

Adding Jobs

Employers in the U.S., the world’s largest economy, probably added more than 200,000 workers for a third straight month in February amid optimism about the expansion, economists said before a report this week. Payrolls increased by 210,000 last month after rising 243,000 in January, the most in nine months, and 203,000 at the end of 2011, according to the median projection of 55 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. It would mark the strongest three-month stretch in almost a year.

The silver ETF, which is a security used to bet on gains or hedge against losses, fell the most since November on Feb. 29, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke gave no signal that the central bank will take new steps to boost liquidity. The ETF dropped on March 2 after Spain raised its budget-deficit target for 2012 and German retail sales unexpectedly declined, and again yesterday after China pared the nation’s economic growth target to 7.5 percent from an 8 percent goal in place since 2005.

‘Awful Lot’

“I don’t see an awful lot of upside in the next month,” Bart Melek, the head of commodity strategy at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “Silver is following gold as it’s a quasi-monetary asset. From an industrial side, the Chinese have formally downgraded their growth rate. I would not be surprised if the metal slips a few more dollars.”

Implied volatility, the key gauge of options prices, for 30-day contracts closest to the silver ETF’s price tumbled 57 percent from its Sept. 28 high to a one-year low of 31.88 on Feb. 24. It was at 36.76 yesterday. Calls betting on a 10 percent gain on Feb. 28 cost 1.03 times more than puts protecting against a 10 percent decline, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That was the biggest gap since April.

‘Big Move’

“Some investors are anticipating a big move, getting long through call options at these relatively low volatility levels,” Purves, chief market strategist and head of derivatives research at BGC Partners in New York, said yesterday in a telephone interview. “There’s industrial demand if the world economy recovers and an investment demand for silver as a hard currency.”

The number of outstanding shares of the silver ETF has increased by 3.1 percent since this year’s low in January to 324.5 million on March 2, its highest level since October, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, as the VIX is known, gained 4.4 percent to 18.05 yesterday, while its European counterpart, the VStoxx Index, added 5.5 percent to 23.80. The European volatility gauge increased another 5.2 percent to 25.04 as of 10:17 a.m. in Frankfurt today. The CBOE Silver ETF Volatility Index rose 3.1 percent to 40.16 yesterday after falling on Feb. 17 to its lowest level since the gauge’s inception a year ago.

Biggest Change

Since the last options expiration on Feb. 17, call ownership for the silver fund gained 24 percent to 1.77 million on March 2, versus a 23 percent increase for put open interest, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The five options with the biggest increases in ownership since Feb. 17 were all calls, the data show. June $36 calls, with a strike 9 percent above yesterday’s close, and June $35 calls added the most, gaining 24,554 and 21,921 contracts, respectively, from none.

“It doesn’t just have the precious-metal sheen to it, it’s got the industrial-metal sheen,” Jim Strugger, a derivatives strategist at MKM Partners LP in Stamford, Connecticut, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “It’s just a highly leveraged trade. Highly leveraged to something better than Europe falling into a deep, dark hole and hard landing in China. To me, that speaks to broad optimism for the most part.”

For breaking news and commentary on financial markets and gold, follow us on Twitter.

NEWS

CNBC
Gold Holds Around $1700; China Growth Worry Weighs

The Wall Street Journal
PRECIOUS METALS: Gold Extends Losses In Asia; China News, Dollar Weigh

The Street
Gold Prices Keep Sliding as China Slashes Growth Expectations

The Wall Street Journal
European Stocks Open Lower‎

COMMENTARY

Resource Investor
Where is Greece’s Gold?

Forbes
Warren Buffett May Know Value, But He Doesn't Know What Money Is

The Financial Times
America and the Middle East: An Explosive Mix

Zero Hedge
Morgan Stanley's Latest 'Commodity Thermometer'

 

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Tue, 03/06/2012 - 08:40 | 2227404 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

PMs......check.

 

 

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 08:42 | 2227409 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

 

It won't be just the Middle East that will go up in flames.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 08:45 | 2227413 Chief_Illiniwek
Chief_Illiniwek's picture

Long fire extinguishers.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 08:56 | 2227436 margaris
margaris's picture

I just watched another german video with marc faber. It was done today.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAkNVhkP75E

Unfortunately its in german, but thats ZeroHedgers second language anyway, no?

Marc Faber basically says he expects WW 3 in the next years with a high certainty.

Central banks can only print money.

He praises asian equity and currency, etc...

So the usual.

PS The interviewer apparently intercepted marc faber as he was on his way from the parking lot to catch his flight....

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:01 | 2227448 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

WW3?  Thanks a lot I'm ready for a hit of the hopium pipe...crap its not even 9:00am yet.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:06 | 2227454 margaris
margaris's picture

Faber says it might take 10 to 15 years for WW3 to take place.... so enough time to prepare....

(Shit, how do you prepare for a world war?)

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:11 | 2227467 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

(Shit, how do you prepare for a world war?)

----------------------------------

By dying your natural death before it happens?

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:14 | 2227469 margaris
margaris's picture

dying or dyeing?

 

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:59 | 2227646 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Faber took a hit of some seriously bad hashish.

If he believes the doomsday scenario he's predicting, you'll want to avoid equities like the plague.

In an "up in flames" scenario, oil would rise to the level where it essentially seizes up the gears of transportation, commuting & commerce, as well as result in massive inflationary inputs for suppliers, producers, shippers, wholesalers, retailers and consumers; this is not a rosy situation for equities.

$200/barrel crude will do this trick nicely (I'd argue the 2007 high of $147.xx will do it, or even something less than that at this point- given the very bad economic fundamentals and precarious state of a deleveraging world - but what do I know, as a mere realist...).

That so basic a concept is lost on him - actually, I should say that so his advice runs contrary to such basic common sense.

Stay away from that bong for a couple days, Faber.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 11:02 | 2227837 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Not only that, but any "strategically important" assets or entire companies would be at substantial risk for nationalization...  this is the elephant in the room none of the folks clamoring about fascism understand...  they have the dominant party in the relationship all wrong...  the lead up to the main event definitely looks like corporate control, so I don't dispute that much...  but we divert quite a ways from that when Faber's scenario hits.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:33 | 2227689 FranSix
FranSix's picture

Your basic bunker would have to be several hundred metres underground, not a miitary installation or former military installation, and well outside any populated area.  Then you would need rations to last two years, and hopefully the ground water in the rock is not heavy with arsenic otherwise you will need to purify.  Then you need a power generator.

Or you could live an a remote island, but still have provisions in the event of nuclear winter.  You might have to put up with skirmishes between opposing sides as the submarines that unleased the global devastation landed on your remote island to claim it.  But perhaps they would just simply bomb it as well.

I think, though that living on the very rim of a populated area, about 40km from the epicenter might be the best place to be.  At least you might be one of those hapless survivors that got trapped in the debris as your building was knocked over but managed to climb out. Or that most of the necessary infrastructure at the very edge of the suburbs far from the epicenter(s) managed to remain intact, along with roads, water, medical, perhaps electrical.  At least 30 nuclear warheads are targetted for any given major city, so the distance would be difficult to assess.

You would not necessarily have to live as if it were in the stone age, but more like the pioneer era in the 18th century.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 11:13 | 2227920 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Fallout will kill everything within a year.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:13 | 2227468 kurzdump
kurzdump's picture

Our masters will brain-wash us. We will be glad to fight for them. No need to prepare.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:18 | 2227476 margaris
margaris's picture

how are they going to brainwash all those people who threw the MSM Television out of the window some years ago?

You can only brainwash the fools with their empty brains who still sit in front of the couch all day.

Those couch potatoes arent going to fight for nobody.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 11:04 | 2227846 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Even the couch potatoes know better, they're just not incentivized to care...  yet.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:14 | 2227471 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

WW3 preps....

tequila

weed

oxy

cocaine

plenty of beer

now, party 'til you are dead because it wont matter

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 01:27 | 2231159 chump666
chump666's picture

lol

that was funny

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:54 | 2227798 Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

Margaris - You do what many other animals do and have food, water and medicine for long cold winter. If wealthy you would be like Marc with land in Argentina and Thailand. Living in fear is a hell all unto itself.

Get yourself out for some walks. Good for the mind and the body. I believe it will all be over by 2021. Hang in there your not alone. God bless you.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:10 | 2227457 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

Rutrow.......crap its not even 9:00am yet.

 

 

Just on Drudge......

WIKILEAKED: BIN LADEN BODY NOT BURIED AT SEA

 

 

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:34 | 2227511 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Laying the groundwork to be able to drag him out and kill him again just before the election.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:57 | 2227565 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

For whom is the PSYOP intended and what is the intent?  Speculate away.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 11:47 | 2228164 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

What the government told us wasn't true? /gasp ;-)

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:10 | 2227464 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

“There’s industrial demand if the world economy recovers and an investment demand for silver as a hard currency.”

“There’s industrial demand if the world economy recovers and an investment demand for silver as a hard currency when it doesnt.”

There.  Fixed.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:04 | 2227589 alfred b.
alfred b.'s picture

 

  WW3??    ..Anyone know on what channel it'll be on???

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:18 | 2227639 outlander
outlander's picture

LMFAO. My sentiments exactly. Next site I surfed to was the mail order ammo store...

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:05 | 2227452 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

 

 

I hate to say this but Faber is another J-Pac, J-Street booster.  He and the rest of the "lobby' won't be happy until there is a 40 foot high wall around EVERY ARAB country in the region and fraternity brothers, financed by the USA, are guarding the gates.

Our beloved President gave a speech to the J-Pac lobby this past weekend to quell all this alarmist rhetoric, and they SAT ON THEIR HANDS.  No, Mr Faber and Isreal Lobby want this to explode (and make a few bucks on the side too).  And, don't think that the C-Street Lobby isn't pushing for it too.

Watch you Congressmen and see which camp they are in...C- or J Street and you will get the picture... One goal, different methods.

 

Oh..and by the way, the 30 cents a gallon increase on gas  has wipped out any recovery.  So who profis here?

Ron Paul has it right..... time after time.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:09 | 2227461 margaris
margaris's picture

I dont think so, marc faber is certainly NOT a war-monger.

Also he is a supporter of ron paul. So he actually knows whats going on... he's no cheerleader of any lobby.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/marc-faber-ron-paul-would-be-very-good-president

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:11 | 2227466 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Yes, Faber is a classic Austrian.  Far from fooled and even farther from war.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:22 | 2227479 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

are you sure you are talking about the Swiss Marc Faber?

Instead of the American David Faber of CNBC?

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:24 | 2227485 Weisbrot
Weisbrot's picture

 

30 cents a gallon increase will seem small when or if the guns of war really ignite in the mid-east.

Unfortunately I see $5.00/gasoline this year with the potential for $7.50 , and I want to be wrong.

 

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 08:42 | 2227410 LuKOsro
Tue, 03/06/2012 - 08:50 | 2227420 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Not all equities are created equal. I'll take my QE hot-cash straight up with a absinthe chaser....thank you very much.

 

 

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 08:45 | 2227414 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

TP......check.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:21 | 2227480 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Don't forget the boat Skipper.  

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 13:31 | 2228668 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Buy Sugar, its demand and supply for food is stable, but its ethanol substitute to oil will explode (Brasil and otehr countries use ethanol in cars). Also Palm, oil, if there is oil disruption Malaysia will convert palm oil to oil (they have a big industry doing that).

 

Sugar and Palm Oil are a smarter way to bet on de-dollarization of oil and middle east problems.

 

 

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 08:43 | 2227406 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

 

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 08:43 | 2227411 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

I love Marc Faber. Sound, conservative advice.

But there is another Faber that US readers know better and this gives him a bad rep.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 08:50 | 2227424 Tao 4 the Show
Tao 4 the Show's picture

PM action is interesting here. The pounding continued overnight and it would seem all the stops have been pulled out to keep the gold price contained. My guess is that this action is in preparation for a major PM driving event - either in Europe (financial) or the Middle East (war).

Hope I am wrong about this. Another possibility is simply preparation for election year QE in one form or another. But the supressing action appears desperate to me. When this coiled spring releases, it will be dramatic.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 08:58 | 2227440 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

The fellas really need QE3 so they can drive down PMs even more while buying the metals for their personal accounts.

 

It's not their money after all......it's your children's.

 

 

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:16 | 2227473 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

They get the gold... Your children get the golden arches...

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 08:50 | 2227425 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Faber College is my alma mater...

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 08:52 | 2227430 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

That puts you on double secret probation.

 

 

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:22 | 2227483 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

I believe you are now classified as a terrorist. Turn yourself in to Holder

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:26 | 2227488 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

How 'bout I just shoot myself so everyone else can go on 'hoping & changing' without being distracted?

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 08:51 | 2227427 sabra1
sabra1's picture

wow! equities did real well in 2008, and since all headlines are positive, i can see equities doing really well going forward! NOT!!!! Faber should be deemed a terrorist, saying to stay in equities!

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 08:58 | 2227445 wandstrasse
wandstrasse's picture

Maybe Faber wanted to say BTFWD (buy the f. war dip).

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 08:56 | 2227438 Pumpkin
Pumpkin's picture

It is all manipulated, equities by far the most and easily manipulated. 

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:32 | 2227507 Weisbrot
Weisbrot's picture

 

 

Why cant we all just get along?

Some manipilation can maybe help, and too much usually makes a big mess.

 

 

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:02 | 2227442 q99x2
q99x2's picture

This is the result of a double clicking fat finger. Still searching for the delete button. N/A. We are experiencing technical difficulties.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 08:57 | 2227443 q99x2
q99x2's picture

25% in night vision scopes and tuna.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:01 | 2227447 wandstrasse
wandstrasse's picture

This adds up to 50% in night vision scopes and tuna?

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:05 | 2227453 espirit
espirit's picture

Unfortunately, NV can't see through the smoke, mirrors, and bs.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 13:45 | 2228713 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

tuna is radioactive thanks to Fukushima....

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 09:53 | 2227550 kito
kito's picture

faber has jumped the shark.....many times.........

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:03 | 2227584 ballafun
ballafun's picture

Faber's era is over.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:03 | 2227586 ballafun
ballafun's picture

Faber's era is over.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:45 | 2227746 taketheredpill
taketheredpill's picture

RE: They haven't got the mony to finance a war.

After the US takes over Iran they will control Oil Reserves of 350 Billion Barrels.

At $100/BBL thats a lot of collateral.  Cut exports and see what $200 does.

Starting to wonder why nobody considers the US$ a commodity currency.

Discuss.

 

 

 

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 11:41 | 2228139 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Shit -- they can't even take Afghanistan.   Iran?  You've got to be kidding!

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 10:55 | 2227804 yabs
yabs's picture

Not sure why he praises equities

Maybe he just means that they are better than cash which is being printed to oblivion.

The right kind of equities maybe he is right but not all

oil, gun companaies and tobacco compnaies and goldminers should do well

Pms first though

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 11:19 | 2227962 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

I think you are correct, equities better than cash due to printing, at least that is what I thought I heard from Faber. PMs for the same reason.

Tue, 03/06/2012 - 12:41 | 2228448 Grand Supercycle
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Originally posted Feb 16, 2011
“When DOW/S&P500 correction gathers momentum I expect:
UP ~ USD, various USDXXX currencies, VIX Index
DOWN ~ EURUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, GOLD/SILVER, Base metals like COPPER etc, CRUDE OIL”
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!