The Facebook IPO - Because "This Time It's Different"

Tyler Durden's picture

While first day jumps in IPOs make for great TV and everyone is anxiously awaiting their allocation to the 'greatest IPO of all time' this week, we thought it might be useful to look at some of the larger and more recent tech IPOs to get some perspective on how close to the moon we will get when Facebook is released. Looking at eight of the larger and more media-promoted IPOs of the last year or two (GRPN, ZNGA, LNKD, P, YOKU, DANG, AWAY, and FFN) we find, aside from the potential for an average 50% pop from the lucky allocation / untradable IPO price, the man in the street that bought the IPO in the market on Day 1 now faces an average loss of 54% with incredibly only 1 of the 8 names (ZNGA) still holding on to gains (+11%) having managed to rally 15% in the last week. We assume that the underwriters will price FB for a nice pop and given the euphoria we hear from talking head after talking head, it doesn't matter where it actually opens, it will be bid to infinity and stay there as unlike all these other well-hyped IPOs (and paradigm changers of the past eh hem YHOO), this one will be different.

 

From very close to Day 1, the average of these eight large IPOs never saw green again. Of course individual names have ebbed and flowed.

 

The last week or so has seen some of the more recent US tech IPOs get a lift on the back of simply the fact that Facebook is coming to market.

 

Source: Bloomberg

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BLOTTO's picture

 

Facebook = CIA data bank

Zuck: Yeah so if you ever need info about anyone at Harvard

Zuck: Just ask.

Zuck: I have over 4,000 emails, pictures, addresses, SNS

[Redacted Friend's Name]: What? How'd you manage that one?

Zuck: People just submitted it.

Zuck: I don't know why.

Zuck: They "trust me"

Zuck: Dumb fucks

Michael's picture

Will another government staged 9/11 attack be required to cover up the next dot-com bubble bust?

JW n FL's picture

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ThJ0wxKZnI

FBI, Feds collect Facebook, social media data; Why are you surprised?

By | March 17, 2010, 5:59am PDT

Summary: The Feds have training courses on gathering information on social networks, identifying relationships, chasing the bad guys and going undercover, according to documents obtained by the Electronic Frontier Foundation. The biggest surprise: That this would surprise anyone.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation and Internal Revenue Service have training courses on gathering information on social networks, identifying relationships, chasing the bad guys and going undercover, according to documents obtained by the Electronic Frontier Foundation. The biggest surprise: Social networking users are surprised by any of this government activity.

http://www.zdnet.com/blog/btl/fbi-feds-collect-facebook-social-media-data-why-are-you-surprised/31996

 

EFF Posts Documents Detailing Law Enforcement Collection of Data From Social Media Sites

EFF has posted documents shedding light on how law enforcement agencies use social networking sites to gather information in investigations. The records, obtained from the Internal Revenue Service and Department of Justice Criminal Division, are the first in a series of documents that will be released through a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) case that EFF filed with the help of the UC Berkeley Samuelson Clinic.

One of the most interesting files is a 2009 training course that describes how IRS employees may use various Internet tools -- including social networking sites and Google Street View -- to investigate taxpayers.

https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2010/03/eff-posts-documents-detailing-law-enforcement

 

Criminal Social Networking Information Gathering Justice Department March 2010

https://www.eff.org/files/filenode/social_network/20100303__crim_socialnetworking.pdf

kito's picture

breaking news, DEBKA.COM reports facebook dollars to be added to sdr basket of currencies....more later...

...NOOO TYLER, PLEASE, NOT THE BANISH BUTTON, PLEEEEASEEE NOOOOO!!!

economics1996's picture

The communist assholes had good files before the fall of the USSR.  These fucking fascist have a date stamp on their forheads-2018.

Manthong's picture

They still have not filed and the market environment seems pretty good..  do they know something?

redpill's picture

Buy Day 1, Sell Day 2, Short Day 3?

Death and Gravity's picture

More or less what I'm going to do. Gawd, the way a brand name make people silly to lose their cash....

Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

Try some accuracy:

Zynga $10 closed 1/31 at $10.49

Groupon $20 closed 1/31 at $20.39

Pandora $16 closed 1/31 at $13.19

Linkln $45 closed 1/31 at $72.15

 

Oh they are supposed to outperform the hysteria price of the first day close?

GMAFBA

StychoKiller's picture

How's that GM IPO coming along?  (Today's close $24.37)

HD's picture

Great, now you tell me. I knew I should have never clicked the like "Terrorism" button...

 

TruthInSunshine's picture

As long as you don't say bombardier in an airport or on an airplane it'll all be good.

Enceladus's picture

Twitter too...

I guess our guys are even I scanner darkly in Europe

Caution on Twitter urged as tourists barred from US

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-16810312

I have visions of the shortsleeve and tie g-men feverously reading tweets from every moron on the planet. Soon they will be paying us visits for misused grammer and spelling errors. 
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

We are about to witness an IPO @ 35x - 50x earnings for a company that has no product outside of the bankrupt consumer-driven economy we no live in. Yeah sign me up for that....

TruthInSunshine's picture

Facebook - allegedly reported to have seen gross revenue of anywhere from 220 to 400 million last year.

Given that it has yet to be required to report its accurate numbers, it could have very well lost money, like Living Social did -  LivingSocial lost $558 million in 2011

And that's with the Facebook rebellion already underway, with users fleeing it as they voice concerns about privacy and also feel it makes their web experience less pleasant - if Facebook can't figure out a way to profitably monetize the activity of a billion people or so who use its services, wtf.

Facebook is no Google.

If Facebook were to institute a fee-for-use model it would cease to exist.

Yet it's IPO backers (snake oil pitchmen) claim a valuation that is in the neighborhood of 100 billion.

 

If this isn't the watershed-type moment that we've seen so many times before, such as 1999, 2007, where the lunacy has peaked, and gravity reasserts its mighty hammer, we're not far away from that defining moment.

 

*Let me reiterate that Living Social datapoint:

Think about this; they lost twice their revenue.

LivingSocial lost $558 million on revenue of 225 million in 2011

The trend is your friend's picture

If anyone goes to google and types in "how to permanent" it will give you one of the top searched request which is "how to permanently delete a facebook account"

 

blunderdog's picture

Hah.  Awesome.  That's just a tad bit more difficult than the other big Google search: "how to turn bullshit into gold"

Spastica Rex's picture

Yeah, but look what happened to homegrocer.com.

dark pools of soros's picture

nah we need another lastminute.com  which went public with its aptly named self right when it all crashed

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Lastminute.com_stock_price.png

 

 

BLOTTO's picture

In the case of both Google and Facebook, three talented students in their 20's came out of obscurity to establish multi-billion dollar enterprises. Do you suppose they had some help?

Mark Zuckerberg  is one of the most ''successful entrepreneurs'' in the last decade. Having made a fortune through his Facebook empire, he reaches more than 500 million people worldwide. It seems like a fairytale. A student creates a new interface to connect the people throughout the world. Well, it sounds great doesn't it? It would, if it were true.

Let's look at headlines that should cast no doubt about the true character of CIAbook:

Facebook's Zuckerberg Says The Age of Privacy is Over -

Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg says privacy is no longer a 'social norm'

Facebook - the CIA conspiracy

The Face of Facebook -  (Pay particular notice to the IMs that got leaked and confirmed to be true by the New Yorker)

Facebook & Social Media: A Convenient Cover For Spying -

 

If we think about it, Facebook is nothing but a big Orwellian spy grid. All Facebook's offerings ultimately lead to being tracked.

 

writingsonthewall's picture

ssshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh now - time for your meds...

 

The Government already has all your details - i handed them over to them

 

you're one of those conspiracistic people - they have a cure.

 

Best concentrate on NDAA rather than facebook

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Ok, so we have figured out these entities are CIA operations.  Now we need to discuss that the CIA is a Scull and Bones operation.  What is Scull and Bones?  Figure that out, and you figure out the game plan.  You figure out the game plan, you figure out the end game. 

LouisDega's picture

Does this include pictures of my sisters  horse? 

Mary Wilbur's picture

I agree with you. Twitter is also a weak spot.

Freddie's picture

Biggest database coimpany in the world is Oracle.  Who did Lord Larry Ellison work for before he founded Oracle?  Who was he building the Oracle database for?  Starts with a C and ends in an A.

StychoKiller's picture

Gasp!  Canada, how could you?!

ebworthen's picture

I can't wait until the sordid details of Zuckerberg's personal life are splattered across the pages of "Star", "National Enquirer" and all the other gossip rags. 

l.hauri's picture

maybe the Facebook Timeline covers are different. The rest is almost the same.

Mary Wilbur's picture

I read that the FBI has asked certain companies to develop software it can use to survey Facebook for potential terrorists/criminals. The technology required for the FBI surveillance needs doesn't yet exist, but I have no doubt it will soon enough, and  there will no doubt be fools who will get snagged in sting operations.

I have never invested in a dotcom and never will. It 's just not real enough for me.

dark pools of soros's picture

the SEC asked for some trannypic queries

bankonzhongguo's picture

You forgot to add Mossad.

 

Ruffcut's picture

My IPO of my site which was like the combination of twitter, Utube and facebook, failed miserably. Maybe it was the name... U-TWIT-FACE.

Buck Johnson's picture

I hope facebook falls flat on it's face on the first day.  Zuck is a F**k and everybody knows it.

doomz78's picture

put your money in.....  and its gone!!!

achmachat's picture

I think we should all go "all in" at the opening and dump everything after 24 hours!
That will teach those sheep bagholders!

CaptainObvious's picture

When did Corzine start working for Facebook?

Mercury's picture

A brief review of just how far down the value harvesting food chain IPO buyers will be: 

 http://www.breakingviews.com/facebook-ipo-will-put-public-markets-to-shame/20046068.article

 

prains's picture

always love an article that can employ the words "hoi polloi"

GeneMarchbanks's picture

I'm short already.

prains's picture

i'm 6'4 but willing to give this "short" thing a try

A Lunatic's picture

I'm going to short the Farmville Farmer's Market.

StychoKiller's picture

Cyber-vegetables are highly nutritious to us robots! :>D

ekm's picture

IT'S AN INSIDER'S TRAP TO THE TRADING IDIOTS.

PLEASE, ANYBODY, 

DO NOT FALL FOR IT. DO A FAVOR TO YOURSELF AND PISS ON IT.

ZeroPoint's picture

And it's gone......

writingsonthewall's picture

$100 BILLION

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

 

Seriously - $100 BILLION

 

Makes it as valuable as McD's

 

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

writingsonthewall's picture

I laughed so hard I laughed myself off the page!

dwdollar's picture

But surely virtual farming is going to be a significant part of the economy in the future???