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The Facebook IPO - Because "This Time It's Different"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While first day jumps in IPOs make for great TV and everyone is anxiously awaiting their allocation to the 'greatest IPO of all time' this week, we thought it might be useful to look at some of the larger and more recent tech IPOs to get some perspective on how close to the moon we will get when Facebook is released. Looking at eight of the larger and more media-promoted IPOs of the last year or two (GRPN, ZNGA, LNKD, P, YOKU, DANG, AWAY, and FFN) we find, aside from the potential for an average 50% pop from the lucky allocation / untradable IPO price, the man in the street that bought the IPO in the market on Day 1 now faces an average loss of 54% with incredibly only 1 of the 8 names (ZNGA) still holding on to gains (+11%) having managed to rally 15% in the last week. We assume that the underwriters will price FB for a nice pop and given the euphoria we hear from talking head after talking head, it doesn't matter where it actually opens, it will be bid to infinity and stay there as unlike all these other well-hyped IPOs (and paradigm changers of the past eh hem YHOO), this one will be different.

 

From very close to Day 1, the average of these eight large IPOs never saw green again. Of course individual names have ebbed and flowed.

 

The last week or so has seen some of the more recent US tech IPOs get a lift on the back of simply the fact that Facebook is coming to market.

 

Source: Bloomberg

 

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Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:20 | 2117316 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

 

Facebook = CIA data bank

Zuck: Yeah so if you ever need info about anyone at Harvard

Zuck: Just ask.

Zuck: I have over 4,000 emails, pictures, addresses, SNS

[Redacted Friend's Name]: What? How'd you manage that one?

Zuck: People just submitted it.

Zuck: I don't know why.

Zuck: They "trust me"

Zuck: Dumb fucks

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:31 | 2117396 Michael
Michael's picture

Will another government staged 9/11 attack be required to cover up the next dot-com bubble bust?

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:51 | 2117465 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ThJ0wxKZnI

FBI, Feds collect Facebook, social media data; Why are you surprised?

By | March 17, 2010, 5:59am PDT

Summary: The Feds have training courses on gathering information on social networks, identifying relationships, chasing the bad guys and going undercover, according to documents obtained by the Electronic Frontier Foundation. The biggest surprise: That this would surprise anyone.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation and Internal Revenue Service have training courses on gathering information on social networks, identifying relationships, chasing the bad guys and going undercover, according to documents obtained by the Electronic Frontier Foundation. The biggest surprise: Social networking users are surprised by any of this government activity.

http://www.zdnet.com/blog/btl/fbi-feds-collect-facebook-social-media-data-why-are-you-surprised/31996

 

EFF Posts Documents Detailing Law Enforcement Collection of Data From Social Media Sites

EFF has posted documents shedding light on how law enforcement agencies use social networking sites to gather information in investigations. The records, obtained from the Internal Revenue Service and Department of Justice Criminal Division, are the first in a series of documents that will be released through a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) case that EFF filed with the help of the UC Berkeley Samuelson Clinic.

One of the most interesting files is a 2009 training course that describes how IRS employees may use various Internet tools -- including social networking sites and Google Street View -- to investigate taxpayers.

https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2010/03/eff-posts-documents-detailing-law-enforcement

 

Criminal Social Networking Information Gathering Justice Department March 2010

https://www.eff.org/files/filenode/social_network/20100303__crim_socialnetworking.pdf

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:54 | 2117479 kito
kito's picture

breaking news, DEBKA.COM reports facebook dollars to be added to sdr basket of currencies....more later...

...NOOO TYLER, PLEASE, NOT THE BANISH BUTTON, PLEEEEASEEE NOOOOO!!!

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:00 | 2117494 economics1996
economics1996's picture

The communist assholes had good files before the fall of the USSR.  These fucking fascist have a date stamp on their forheads-2018.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:07 | 2117533 Manthong
Manthong's picture

They still have not filed and the market environment seems pretty good..  do they know something?

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:09 | 2117543 redpill
redpill's picture

Buy Day 1, Sell Day 2, Short Day 3?

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 17:06 | 2117731 Death and Gravity
Death and Gravity's picture

More or less what I'm going to do. Gawd, the way a brand name make people silly to lose their cash....

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 18:38 | 2118052 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

Try some accuracy:

Zynga $10 closed 1/31 at $10.49

Groupon $20 closed 1/31 at $20.39

Pandora $16 closed 1/31 at $13.19

Linkln $45 closed 1/31 at $72.15

 

Oh they are supposed to outperform the hysteria price of the first day close?

GMAFBA

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 02:47 | 2119158 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

How's that GM IPO coming along?  (Today's close $24.37)

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:08 | 2117541 HD
HD's picture

Great, now you tell me. I knew I should have never clicked the like "Terrorism" button...

 

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 18:33 | 2118037 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

As long as you don't say bombardier in an airport or on an airplane it'll all be good.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:38 | 2117646 Enceladus
Enceladus's picture

Twitter too...

I guess our guys are even I scanner darkly in Europe

Caution on Twitter urged as tourists barred from US

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-16810312

I have visions of the shortsleeve and tie g-men feverously reading tweets from every moron on the planet. Soon they will be paying us visits for misused grammer and spelling errors. 
Wed, 02/01/2012 - 17:17 | 2117758 Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

We are about to witness an IPO @ 35x - 50x earnings for a company that has no product outside of the bankrupt consumer-driven economy we no live in. Yeah sign me up for that....

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:32 | 2117403 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Facebook - allegedly reported to have seen gross revenue of anywhere from 220 to 400 million last year.

Given that it has yet to be required to report its accurate numbers, it could have very well lost money, like Living Social did -  LivingSocial lost $558 million in 2011

And that's with the Facebook rebellion already underway, with users fleeing it as they voice concerns about privacy and also feel it makes their web experience less pleasant - if Facebook can't figure out a way to profitably monetize the activity of a billion people or so who use its services, wtf.

Facebook is no Google.

If Facebook were to institute a fee-for-use model it would cease to exist.

Yet it's IPO backers (snake oil pitchmen) claim a valuation that is in the neighborhood of 100 billion.

 

If this isn't the watershed-type moment that we've seen so many times before, such as 1999, 2007, where the lunacy has peaked, and gravity reasserts its mighty hammer, we're not far away from that defining moment.

 

*Let me reiterate that Living Social datapoint:

Think about this; they lost twice their revenue.

LivingSocial lost $558 million on revenue of 225 million in 2011

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:55 | 2117485 The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

If anyone goes to google and types in "how to permanent" it will give you one of the top searched request which is "how to permanently delete a facebook account"

 

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 17:27 | 2117786 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Hah.  Awesome.  That's just a tad bit more difficult than the other big Google search: "how to turn bullshit into gold"

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:32 | 2117633 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Yeah, but look what happened to homegrocer.com.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 20:48 | 2118452 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

nah we need another lastminute.com  which went public with its aptly named self right when it all crashed

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Lastminute.com_stock_price.png

 

 

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:33 | 2117407 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

In the case of both Google and Facebook, three talented students in their 20's came out of obscurity to establish multi-billion dollar enterprises. Do you suppose they had some help?

Mark Zuckerberg  is one of the most ''successful entrepreneurs'' in the last decade. Having made a fortune through his Facebook empire, he reaches more than 500 million people worldwide. It seems like a fairytale. A student creates a new interface to connect the people throughout the world. Well, it sounds great doesn't it? It would, if it were true.

Let's look at headlines that should cast no doubt about the true character of CIAbook:

Facebook's Zuckerberg Says The Age of Privacy is Over -

Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg says privacy is no longer a 'social norm'

Facebook - the CIA conspiracy

The Face of Facebook -  (Pay particular notice to the IMs that got leaked and confirmed to be true by the New Yorker)

Facebook & Social Media: A Convenient Cover For Spying -

 

If we think about it, Facebook is nothing but a big Orwellian spy grid. All Facebook's offerings ultimately lead to being tracked.

 

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:36 | 2117420 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

ssshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh now - time for your meds...

 

The Government already has all your details - i handed them over to them

 

you're one of those conspiracistic people - they have a cure.

 

Best concentrate on NDAA rather than facebook

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:34 | 2117480 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Ok, so we have figured out these entities are CIA operations.  Now we need to discuss that the CIA is a Scull and Bones operation.  What is Scull and Bones?  Figure that out, and you figure out the game plan.  You figure out the game plan, you figure out the end game. 

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:47 | 2117672 LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

Does this include pictures of my sisters  horse? 

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:40 | 2117434 Mary Wilbur
Mary Wilbur's picture

I agree with you. Twitter is also a weak spot.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:47 | 2117467 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Biggest database coimpany in the world is Oracle.  Who did Lord Larry Ellison work for before he founded Oracle?  Who was he building the Oracle database for?  Starts with a C and ends in an A.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 02:50 | 2119164 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Gasp!  Canada, how could you?!

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:08 | 2117537 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

I can't wait until the sordid details of Zuckerberg's personal life are splattered across the pages of "Star", "National Enquirer" and all the other gossip rags. 

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 04:06 | 2364427 l.hauri
l.hauri's picture

maybe the Facebook Timeline covers are different. The rest is almost the same.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:37 | 2117425 Mary Wilbur
Mary Wilbur's picture

I read that the FBI has asked certain companies to develop software it can use to survey Facebook for potential terrorists/criminals. The technology required for the FBI surveillance needs doesn't yet exist, but I have no doubt it will soon enough, and  there will no doubt be fools who will get snagged in sting operations.

I have never invested in a dotcom and never will. It 's just not real enough for me.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 20:38 | 2118425 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

the SEC asked for some trannypic queries

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:40 | 2117435 bankonzhongguo
bankonzhongguo's picture

You forgot to add Mossad.

 

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:46 | 2117459 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

And AIPAC?

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 22:35 | 2122023 merizobeach
merizobeach's picture

As a friend?

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 17:41 | 2117835 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

My IPO of my site which was like the combination of twitter, Utube and facebook, failed miserably. Maybe it was the name... U-TWIT-FACE.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 22:35 | 2118719 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

I hope facebook falls flat on it's face on the first day.  Zuck is a F**k and everybody knows it.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:19 | 2117319 doomz78
doomz78's picture

put your money in.....  and its gone!!!

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:29 | 2117389 achmachat
achmachat's picture

I think we should all go "all in" at the opening and dump everything after 24 hours!
That will teach those sheep bagholders!

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:03 | 2117511 CaptainObvious
CaptainObvious's picture

When did Corzine start working for Facebook?

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:23 | 2117323 Mercury
Mercury's picture

A brief review of just how far down the value harvesting food chain IPO buyers will be: 

 http://www.breakingviews.com/facebook-ipo-will-put-public-markets-to-shame/20046068.article

 

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:01 | 2117505 prains
prains's picture

always love an article that can employ the words "hoi polloi"

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:21 | 2117327 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

I'm short already.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:02 | 2117510 prains
prains's picture

i'm 6'4 but willing to give this "short" thing a try

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:21 | 2117328 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

I'm going to short the Farmville Farmer's Market.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 02:53 | 2119168 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Cyber-vegetables are highly nutritious to us robots! :>D

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:21 | 2117330 ekm
ekm's picture

IT'S AN INSIDER'S TRAP TO THE TRADING IDIOTS.

PLEASE, ANYBODY, 

DO NOT FALL FOR IT. DO A FAVOR TO YOURSELF AND PISS ON IT.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:21 | 2117331 ZeroPoint
ZeroPoint's picture

And it's gone......

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:22 | 2117340 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

$100 BILLION

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

 

Seriously - $100 BILLION

 

Makes it as valuable as McD's

 

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:23 | 2117347 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

I laughed so hard I laughed myself off the page!

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:27 | 2117374 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

But surely virtual farming is going to be a significant part of the economy in the future???

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:37 | 2117424 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

...and virtual farms will need good manure - virtual horseshit - which is where facebook comes in.

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 09:15 | 2119439 Capitalist
Capitalist's picture

The algo driven robots need something to eat.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:25 | 2117363 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Makes it as valuable as McD's

 

"Right, and you can't even eat it..like you can an iPad." - Dudley

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:28 | 2117381 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

You can lick your monitor after you grow your virtual vegetables.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:32 | 2117401 Hmm...
Hmm...'s picture

haha... but given what happens in front of 99.9% of computer monitors there is no way in hell I'm licking it!  :)

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:41 | 2117447 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

HEY! - who downed me?

 

has someone pre-bought or something? WHO ARE YOU? SHOW YOURSELF!

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:04 | 2117519 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

FED plant or long laugh line Nazi.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:23 | 2117344 Cdad
Cdad's picture

I must be the only person in the world that does not get the Facebook thing.  Niether is its interface comfortable, nor its purpose clear.  Navel gazing on steroids...but I understand the company might be worth $100 billion.  Ummmm....sold to you.

Then again, I also struggle to understand how a 1500 calorie starch bomb burrito is "health food."

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:25 | 2117362 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

"but I understand the company might be worth $100 billion"

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

 

I heard that too!!

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:37 | 2117426 Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

1500 calorie starch bomb..

too funny.. thx Cdad.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 17:05 | 2117729 mtguy
mtguy's picture

Cdad- what's not to understand. I'll spell it out for you>

First, sign up and give them ALL your personal data, a few photos of you and the dog or whatever. You can add bank numbers, soc. sec. # if you like (although they'll be able to get that info anyways).

Good so far?

Now, the second step is that they sell all of your valuable information to marketing companies, the gubment, and anyone else with enough money and make a profit (presumably)

Next, you need to keep updating your account so that everybody knows exactly what you're doing and when -yes, even when going to the bathroom (oh wait, scratch that, that's for Twitterers) forget the bathroom unless you're gorgeous and naked.

They then go and sell this additional information and bingo, in a couple very repeatable steps they can make millions of dollars on yours and everybody else's information.

Sound good? Great. Just go to Facebook.com or your local FBI and sign up.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:23 | 2117348 bogey4
bogey4's picture

At $100 billion, it would be priced at 25 times revenues - not earnings, revenues.  Yikes!

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:37 | 2117421 adr
adr's picture

Just imagine the revenue when the Martians get Facebook!!! Alpha Centauri???

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:23 | 2117349 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

Post this article/link - on facebook.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:28 | 2117622 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Done.

Where have all the companies that make things gone?

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 19:10 | 2118176 ToddGak
ToddGak's picture

Uh...China?

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:26 | 2117351 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Drop the "The".....just "Facebook IPO".....it's cleaner.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:24 | 2117354 thorgodofthunder
thorgodofthunder's picture

Seriously Tyler, thou art so certain of the guaranteed drop in Facebook shares from its IPO price, so thou shouldst be starting a $SHORT IPOX fund.  Put thy money where thy mouth is!

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:24 | 2117355 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

Don't be so stubborn! Go for it, perfect timing. They should be praised, giving HF an opportunity to pick up steam.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:24 | 2117357 Sk84life
Sk84life's picture

F Facebook

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:24 | 2117358 Sk84life
Sk84life's picture

F Facebook

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:25 | 2117364 kito
kito's picture

the man in the street that bought the IPO in the market on Day 1 now faces an average loss of 54%

ha ha!!! like those 99 percenters mean anything!! ha ha ha!!!!!! they are better than an insinkerator!!! no mess, no spills, just dump our leftovers through to them!!!!

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:01 | 2117503 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

+1 for mentioning an "Insinkerator".

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 03:27 | 2119189 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I think those are still made in the U.S., but the quality blows. I had to replace one because the bottom corroded and was leaking, and it was a 1/2 hp, and only 3 years old.

 

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 03:35 | 2119198 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Wow, I installed a 1/2 hp twelve years ago and it is going strong (except when I grind up a shot glass in it).

Maybe they are getting the "steel" from China?

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 03:47 | 2119205 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Something happened with the new units, because it's a common problem with the bottom rotting out prematurely.

I never had nor heard of a problem with the older units.

Check out this link for just a sampler of the complaints (exactly the problem I had), with claims they used corrosive steel near the bottom seal, which rusts through quickly.

how to mend it .com - Drip leak from bottom of Insinkerator Badger 5
Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:27 | 2117373 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Idiots Purchasing Option

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:27 | 2117375 FubarNation
FubarNation's picture

It might just be me but I can't stand fucking Fakebook.

 

What a waste of time. 

 

I constantly badger my wife when she is on it.  I mean there are dishes to do for Christ sakes!

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:32 | 2117406 resurger
resurger's picture

hahahahahahahahaha!

+1

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:44 | 2117665 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

And jesus christ when my wife asks for a new watch.........theres a perfectly good clock on the stove!

Yep, facebook blows. I'm trying to downsize 

 

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:28 | 2117380 mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

But how 'bout that awesome business model?

http://acrossthestreetnet.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/facebook-ipo.png

 

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:30 | 2117391 AC_Doctor
AC_Doctor's picture

Facebook is the easiest way for the Government to get information about you and your activities.  Be warned...

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:48 | 2117470 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I would argue that google has done a far better job in that arena.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:30 | 2117394 Hmm...
Hmm...'s picture

I'm a Facebook hater.  I don't have a Facebook account and I think the Zuck is evil.

That said: Facebook is not the same as the last few tech IPOs.  It is a Google not a Groupon.

Does this mean that one should buy the IPO?  Of course not... it's a sham. 

The thing about "tech" these days is that most of it isn't tech... instead it's advertising/media wrapped in tech clothing.  Facebook's primary revenue model = advertising.  Same as Google, same as most of the other stuff out there.

Thus, Facebook as new Juggernaut will not create much... instead it will just cannibalize the ad revenue that is currently going to Google and other media.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:35 | 2117414 adr
adr's picture

Yep. But Google and Facebook will have a battle royal for other "techs" causing valuations of iEatShit.com to skyrocket. FREE MONEY FOR ALL!!!!!!!

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:02 | 2117507 mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

Agreed.  Funny I've never heard anybody say, "My business has really taken off now that I advertise on Google!"

Facebook will provide a new outlet for advertisers to waste their money.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:31 | 2117398 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

Facebook?????
What the fuck man....this is what its come to???
Off to my local "real money dealer....
Fuck mother fuckin Facebook.....

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:34 | 2117411 resurger
resurger's picture

A stolen Idea ..

FUCK YOU Facecrook!

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:38 | 2117428 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

CORRECTION: - it will END UP as a stolen idea.

 

easily copied - easily beaten

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 03:45 | 2119208 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Ron Jeremy is suing Zuck - that's the rumor.

He claims Zuck stole the whole idea from Ron's sitonmyfacebook.com idea he had years ago.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:38 | 2117427 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

+1

I laugh when I hear people refer to facebook as a "technology" company.  Remind me, precisely what technology did facebook invent, develop, produce, and bring to the market again?

Bloody sheep.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:40 | 2117441 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

it developed the technology of 'idiot entrapment'

world leaders.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:44 | 2117666 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

You're on a roll writing. Funny stuff all the way down-thread.

Doesn't facebook have walls? 

I hear those walls have ears.

ori

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:52 | 2117399 Ese Pinche
Ese Pinche's picture

Buy in the second market and flip into the public market.. easy easy money...that is of course ONLY if you are accredited (read 1%) and are allowed to invest in such "risky" instruments like "private placements" by law... because if you dont have a net worth of $1 milly or havent made a quarter milly for the passed two years you are unworthy of easy money and will dilute the pool of nimrods being flipped into.. oh uh.. I meant, are not sophisticated enough to understand such a complicated asset as a private placement... its for your protection of course.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:32 | 2117402 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Buy Groupon, get pooped on. Wash, rinse and repeat. Applies to all of these full of hot air and hype type of shitburgers.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:33 | 2117408 adr
adr's picture

When the entire purpose of an IPO is just to make insiders money instead of growing a business, the market has lost its purpose.

As private corporations maybe 1 or 2 out of the S&P could actually make it.

The question is, Does Facebook actually make any money?

Well page views have been considered profit, just like revenue even if everything is sold at a loss. How insane is it that other internet corps would go up in value just because Facebook is going to file for an IPO?

Wait I get it, because in order to grow Facebook is going to need to use all its IPO cash to buy up every other dotcom out there. THAT'S THE GAME!!! Just like Biotech. Make a bet and hope someone buys out your investment for triple the value.

Watch for all the Google vs Facebook news stories and buyout rumors.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:36 | 2117419 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Hey now, just a second, don't deny those insiders and vulture capitalists their pounds of flesh.  They are the "job creators" after all.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:39 | 2117433 adr
adr's picture

Hey, that's not fair. My roomate in college who never went to class on time, almost failed out twice, and cheated on every term paper got a good paying job at Google designing "User Experience".

 

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:44 | 2117457 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

What the fuck does that have to do with being a venture capitalist and getting to buy into the provate equity before it is flipped to the retail crowd and extracting 10x your wealth regardless of whether the company succeeds or fails?

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:37 | 2117422 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

You do have to wonder who is buying this stuff, and pray to God it's not the guy managing your company's retirement fund.

 

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:40 | 2117439 adr
adr's picture

Oh it's the guy managing your retirement fund.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:42 | 2117448 RaymondKHessel
RaymondKHessel's picture

FB = Nothing more than a glorified message board. Gaybook.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:56 | 2117488 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

CALPERS and your insurance company.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 22:50 | 2140328 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

I definitely would not recommend investing in this IPO.

 

Pandora Style Beads

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:08 | 2117538 CaptainObvious
CaptainObvious's picture

The same group of numbnuts who bought bundled subprime mortgages.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:41 | 2117446 kevinearick
kevinearick's picture

Virtual Space Time:   Intro

So, VIX is signaling depression, and Corporate is at TDC (greatest profit, producing no marginal taxes, and the individual tax base has already rolled over). What goes in that chamber, through thought taxation, determines the outcome. You don’t want the spoil going back into the chamber on the margin at TDC. What is talent to labor to retained earnings to capital, at space time, aggregated?

On the derivative side, it’s a stage; on the integral side, it’s a laboratory. Why does it surprise anyone that the country is running backwards at infinite QE? They already have negative relative interest rates. Is it a change of direction to extend QE infinitely in stages? Make them explicit; see what happens. The empire burns on anxiety.

DC and Seattle are the most “educated” cities. They are also the most irrational. That’s it; build a “bunker buster” to dive deeper and deeper into the crust, and drop it on a target built for the occasion, and pay slaves to build the communication platform that controls the prison around it. Does it get any dumber than Boeing and Apple?

Anyone who has ever entered university knows it’s a political farce. The empire manages garbage. Of course it wants as much garbage as possible, so it creates a positive feedback looking glass. If you tell the empire nothing, it can only see itself. America built the best university, fed by the best k-12 groupthink feedback system, to the end of the most disposable economy in History, which was rolled out globally, consuming everything in its path. Run as it might, its originator will not escape.

Under DC architecture, memory competes against itself, losing every time, which makes perfect sense in an economic activity world, with a “free” market for select executives coming out of the university cohort, funded by slave labor and directed by trusts, with a conformance-based filter, which now begins at birth, all projecting future surpluses as the means to current deficits, including deleveraging interest on past debt. By all means, hand your children over to the State.

The problem is the solution. They run in pairs, across the looking glass. It is the direction of money you care about at TDC, the resulting backlash of implicit credit at the implicit community level. As Tip provided, all politics is local (aggregated).

Human behavior cannot be changed at the aggregate level in real time, except through distilled backlash, by changing the perception of time, what future participants pay attention to on the margin of their current event horizons. The older empires did not “die” for lack of resources. They were replaced to increase circulation.

Language is the constraint, not oil. The pundits are using their new words, not that they understand them now. The equations come later. It’s always a sh**-show.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:12 | 2117558 Matt
Matt's picture

I thought the problem was that Universities are driven by student demand, rather than employer demand. That they increase the funding for what's popular, rather than what's productive. But I suppose that's me stuck in my industrialist thinking.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 18:25 | 2118006 kevinearick
kevinearick's picture

my 25 yrs experience says that they are driven by energy consortiums, to the benefit of trusts, with various characters like healthcare downstream, but opinions vary...my experience revolves around military engagement...I don't think student demand is the 800 lb gorilla in the room...

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:44 | 2117452 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Faceplant ...

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:46 | 2117460 monopoly
monopoly's picture

100 billion for a social web site. What has happened to this once great country. And how many jobs will this farce produce, 100, 1000, or none.

What a waste. 

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 17:09 | 2117734 ChrisFromMorningside
ChrisFromMorningside's picture

Oh, it'll produce some jobs alright. Are you telling me that your employer hasn't hired a "Social Media Consultant" yet? What are you, in the stone age? Humanities majors who spent the past four years on Facebook and Twitter have to work somewhere!

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 17:09 | 2117735 ChrisFromMorningside
ChrisFromMorningside's picture

Oh, it'll produce some jobs alright. Are you telling me that your employer hasn't hired a "Social Media Consultant" yet? What are you, in the stone age? Humanities majors who spent the past four years on Facebook and Twitter have to work somewhere!

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:47 | 2117466 Clark80
Clark80's picture

Would not be complete without special mention of Quepasa, the Latino-based social network. Came out in June 1999 at $240/share, went through a 1-20 reverse split in 2003 making the adjusted IPO $12, and currently trades at roughly $4.50.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:52 | 2117474 taniquetil
taniquetil's picture

Markets are efficient. All risk priced in. Outlook bullish.

 

Disclaimer: I bought Apple when it was trading a $.10 a share. I am long Groupon and long Zynga.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:01 | 2117498 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Apple and Facebook will mitigate any future oil supply problems because it will keep people occupied on their lazy asses.

These products are more saviors to humanity han anything else.  Buying them makes you a patriot.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:52 | 2117476 Hicham
Hicham's picture

I think it's far too expensive, but honestly, compared to most of the internet companies out there (with the exception of google?) facebook has a ton of potential revenue. For hundreds of millions of people, it's  a depressingly large part of their lives. People are already spending an insane amount on ridiculous games through facebook- like Farmville. If they can't figure out how to make money from having access to 500million+ potential customers/ad revenue they shouldn't be in the business. 

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:55 | 2117477 undercover brother
undercover brother's picture

it's all hype and marketing.   hype is good.  need to raise awareness and sell shares.  make sure everyone knows.    come to think of it,  i dont' believe i've ever read a positive comment about anything on zero hedge.  just negative drone.  you watch, this ipo will rock.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:59 | 2117492 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Gold, bitchez

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:14 | 2117566 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

A lot f IPOs rocked out of the gate. The Street.com sound familiar.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:56 | 2117483 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

As those UK tourists learned in LA recently, our beloved government has been reading and remembering 600 tweets per second.

800,000,000 dossiers on Facebook?  Go long storage.

 

 

 

 

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:55 | 2117484 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

How are MySpace, AOL, and Netscape doing?

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:03 | 2117514 The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

don't forget prodigy, they were a contender once

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 15:56 | 2117486 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

What the fuck is a Zynga?

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:01 | 2117499 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

They are a game developer.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:11 | 2117557 CaptainObvious
CaptainObvious's picture

They developed Farmville, aka the only reason Facebook is still in business.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:14 | 2117568 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

So I should sell FB and buy ZNGA then.  See?  Trading is easy.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:34 | 2117638 Matt
Matt's picture

Other than Zynga is pissing off its users by adding more and more content without resolving any problems with the existing content.

How long does it take from IPO before a stock can be shorted again?

 

Disclaimer: I use FB to stay in touch with people, but don't play the games or buy Facebook Bucks.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:01 | 2117502 astartes09
astartes09's picture

Why wouldnt I invest in Facebook?  Its called Friendster.  Look it up.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:22 | 2117591 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Friendster? Hell, I remember eCircles. Don't know if they were able to go public before their implosion. I give Facebook a few more years before its user base erodes as the young kiddies start flocking to something else which doesn't include their parents.

http://www.cww.org/ecircles/index.html

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:09 | 2117544 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I know a lot of Facebook users and when the topic comes up I always like to find out if they click on the adds. Nobody has ever answered yes to that question. Everybody likes to use it for the free stuff.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:11 | 2117549 sheeple2012
sheeple2012's picture

surprised no-one has started Assbook yet, it would be a perfect mix of narcissism, voyeurism, and meaningless drivel... kind of like Facebook

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 17:46 | 2117846 Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

It's called Shitfacedbook.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:13 | 2117550 devo
devo's picture

I think this thing will have a huge opening day, and be a huge flop five years down the line. They'll try to get involved in cell phones, tv, and whatever is hot at the moment. Advertisers will realize nobody clicks those ads, and in fact most people use adblock. lolol.

I'd like to add one more point: by going public with our private data and acting like this is the new norm, Facebook has invited a better social media site to be created. One that keeps user data private. Do not be surprised to see something like this spring up in the next year and everyone flock to it.

People who can get in on the IPO will do well. Nobody else should touch it.

 

 

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:16 | 2117575 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

There is nothing, absolutely nothing, on Facebook which is private.  Period.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:18 | 2117589 devo
devo's picture

Yes, I know. I should have put "private" in quotes.

I use all fake data on FB. I recommend everyone do this.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 20:39 | 2118431 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

yes, use the pictures of those people from the inserts that come in the frames you buy at kmart

Thu, 02/02/2012 - 03:32 | 2119195 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I have ghostery, adblock plus, betterprivacy, https, noscript, etc., and I don't see any ads, anywhere.

I also use an older version of Firefox, because they can suck my ass with their new supercookie.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:12 | 2117559 The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

On ZH you except this type of response of a hyped IPO like FB.  Whats interesting is that even if you go to Blogs on Yahoo, you find the same negativity behind it. It's hard to find people excited about FB

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 20:41 | 2118437 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

lol...  when's the next update Tyler?  are your strawberries dying in farmville?  or you playing Hemp Tycoon now?

 

http://www.facebook.com/home.php#!/ZeroHedge

 

 

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:26 | 2117581 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

A small head's up on Zynga:

They've been (fairly directly) offering to buy out profitable / zeitgeisty small games / apps (either single product or entire studio) and when refused, have been cloning them [i.e. 100% direct clone of style / mechanics etc].

Whilst this is in no way illegal in the games market, it has pushed a few noses out of joint in the small world of computer geeks, and is known as the China model of company development. This adds to their mission of building skinner boxes merely to keep rats tapping that button1. However, popular places such as Penny Arcade have now jumped on the band wagon, as has Reddit, Gamasutra, even Business Insider.

Note: Last time Penny Arcade jumped on a band-wagon, they ruined the guy's career; this time I can imagine the track-back will be more subtle. However, working for them is rapidly moving down from a decent place to work where there's lots of talent to "sweat-shop with no creativity that forbids design or innovation and forces you to clone other people's games. Oh, and give that fucking stock back now, or else".

I see that 15% hike as a short term gain; medium to long term, I see a lot of the talent leaving ASAP.

 

In other news ~ FB. Getting people to pay for being the source and product of a company that gets it for free is the ultimate in irony.

Facebook IPO is the Solyent Green of Capitalism.

  • 1. And yes, I advised against the next WoW killer as an investment in favour of these from a pure revenue model: and it was correct, from a profit perspective. Doesn't mean they're actually a good product or that you're not treating the players as dumb animals rather than consumers though.
Wed, 02/01/2012 - 22:12 | 2118658 kevinearick
kevinearick's picture

Solyent Green of Capitalism- liked that!

funny, youth unemployment is skyrocketing...

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:19 | 2117588 HD
HD's picture

I honestly warms my heart to know how many here hate facebook.  I thought I was the only person left on the planet who avoided it like the plague.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 21:43 | 2118601 cbxer55
cbxer55's picture

Never been on it. Not once. Never will.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:22 | 2117601 Thomas Jefferson
Thomas Jefferson's picture

Pets.com

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:29 | 2117624 The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

Everyone should bombard Facebook with nonsense and lies. If enough people put false information on it the data would become worthless.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 17:33 | 2117801 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Even if the data is inaccurate, the metadata could be valuable.  The only winning move is not to play.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:30 | 2117629 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Facebook allows one to hide in plain site.  And to keep track of your teenagers. It's not all bad.

Wed, 02/01/2012 - 16:38 | 2117651 am
am's picture

Buy.

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