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The Facebook IPO - Because "This Time It's Different"
While first day jumps in IPOs make for great TV and everyone is anxiously awaiting their allocation to the 'greatest IPO of all time' this week, we thought it might be useful to look at some of the larger and more recent tech IPOs to get some perspective on how close to the moon we will get when Facebook is released. Looking at eight of the larger and more media-promoted IPOs of the last year or two (GRPN, ZNGA, LNKD, P, YOKU, DANG, AWAY, and FFN) we find, aside from the potential for an average 50% pop from the lucky allocation / untradable IPO price, the man in the street that bought the IPO in the market on Day 1 now faces an average loss of 54% with incredibly only 1 of the 8 names (ZNGA) still holding on to gains (+11%) having managed to rally 15% in the last week. We assume that the underwriters will price FB for a nice pop and given the euphoria we hear from talking head after talking head, it doesn't matter where it actually opens, it will be bid to infinity and stay there as unlike all these other well-hyped IPOs (and paradigm changers of the past eh hem YHOO), this one will be different.
From very close to Day 1, the average of these eight large IPOs never saw green again. Of course individual names have ebbed and flowed.
The last week or so has seen some of the more recent US tech IPOs get a lift on the back of simply the fact that Facebook is coming to market.
Source: Bloomberg
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How long after an IPO does the market start to write puts? Implied vols gotta be huge...but it still sets up as a favored Taleb play.
The original dot.com bubble collapsed TWELVE years ago.
Lots of new suckers have entered the market since then and they are ready for their fleecing.
Yet another Dickbook hater here - seems all who hate it are on ZH - someone post the correlation...
DANG is down 75%. Ticker: Appropriately named.
I've seen the future of Facebook and it's called MySpace. Anyone dumb enough to invest in this IPO deserves to loose their shit.
Something new and sexy will come along and kids will drop Facebook as quickly as they joined it. Within three years tumbleweed will blowing through that shitty piece of cyber terrain. But before then Zuckerberg and his cronies will have rode off into the sunset with their saddlebags full of idiot investors cash. Same as it ever was.
Something new and sexy will come along and kids will drop Facebook as quickly as they joined it.
Nah, this is way wrong. It's hit critical mass. The people who really care are heavily invested in FB by now--people who've uploaded a few thousand photos or who have a few thousand "friends" are not going ANYWHERE. It's a sunk cost (in time) to get all your cutesy shit up on a website like FB and to pick your interests and sync your contacts and what-fucking-ever else.
If meaningful competition comes along, it'll be a generational adaptation. Kids will lead the way, then their parents will follow on after. You can change the website overnight, but you can't move hundreds of millions of people easily.
People don't like change.
Great shorting opportunity on the FB IPO.
Long term it's even more dismal for the company, and users whos data is sold off and they got nothing.
i block bookfece, twat, and a bunch of others, at the router
Shoud I sell all my PM's and put all the $$ in Facebook?
Facebook is not a "tech" company in the same sense that Apple, Intel or even Google are. If AOL, MySpace, Friendster, etc. have taught us anything its that these web companies should be seen as having more in common with fashion labels than with hardware technology producers. MySpace's history mirrors that of, say, Jordache or Von Dutch than it does H-P. Facebook's strength is that it is trendy, fashionable and has momentum at the moment but, just like the "hot" fashion labels of today, it will be gone and forgotten within a few years, if not months.
I dunno, I was thinking the same thing a couple of years ago, that Facebook would go the way of MySpace. But it's stayed relevant and become even more entrenched. At this point, it's gonna be real hard for someone to come around and take them down...FB has done a lot of the hard work to solve scaling and infrastructure problems. Look at Google, they have a huge built in community, yet Google Plus isn't really taking off and probably won't ever seriously compete with Facebook.
That said, I agree that a $100B valuation is patently absurd...their earnings are probably in the tens of millions, and if it wasn't for heavy subsidies from Microsoft and other venture capital, they wouldn't be able to keep the lights on.
Moss gets very cross indeed.
FriendFace: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8xbgdw9uvY
I really really really hate FB. I hope this shitbomb burns.
Coiled Spring!!!! set to blow!! Back up the trucks!!! Retire in a year!!! bigger than Exxon!!!
Yawn. Another day, another IPO.
Is it time to go yet?
I told you fuckers that facebook would be an eath shattering event. When fucking garbage like this can take Wall Street by storm......game fucking over. There is no way, no how, that this is going to prop up a completely destroyed economy. Like I mentioned earlier, the markets are in stasis. Only good new prevails. Yes, everyone rush out and get a job now the world just got better.
Conclusions: Wall Street is fucking desperate. And so are you if you bought this overpriced fucking garbage.
What a nightmare we live in. Didn't the bibles mention "spiders" in the end time? Could that have something to do with webbot spiders predicting "total destruction" in 2012?
Death to the Elite!!
Yeah some type of insect, cannot recall if scorpions or spiders. But whatever, a really nasty sting that would kill anyman, but you don't die. You suffer interminably what should kill you but keep on living.
Looking forward to that one.
NET earnings of 1 Billion?? WTF
http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2012/feb/02/facebook-ipo-facts?CMP=...
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