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Facebook IPO Post-Mortem For Dummies

Tyler Durden's picture


Over the weekend we presented a very sophisticated, bottoms-up, trade-level analysis of the Facebook IPO debacle courtesy of Nanex. Now that the $38 underwriter-supported price has been breached with gusto, and absolutely anyone and everyone who bought into the Facebook IPO and still holds the stock as of market close has suffered major losses, here is a far more simplified, grass-roots, animated Facebook post-mortem for the 'rest of us'... many of whom likely are nursing 10-20% losses in the span of 48 hours.


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Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:33 | 2448923 TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

I'm sure all Facebook needs is to have some debt sliced up into CDO tranches... hey, it worked (for a while) in the real estate market.

Or just market an anti-social network like ''.


Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:40 | 2448947 e-man
e-man's picture

Stop giving him ideas! 

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:58 | 2448985 Colombian Gringo
Colombian Gringo's picture

 9 word Summary of article:  Stupid goy suckered by the chosen ones, again.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 18:16 | 2449030 resurger
resurger's picture

ehm.. Mark sold 10bn shares to cover his wedding expenses, am sure he will announce stock buy back very soon.

when the share is $1

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 18:33 | 2449064 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture




Mon, 05/21/2012 - 19:58 | 2449236 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

As a child, I had only one or two Imaginary Friends. Now, I have thousands. They just keep piling on. I'll buy that for a dollar.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 22:49 | 2449607 knukles
knukles's picture

And here's the real valuation question before the house.

Does Zuckerberg make a good imaginary seasoned CEO handling anything more than weasel?

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 02:00 | 2449936 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture


Mon, 05/21/2012 - 21:35 | 2449453 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

I does not matter how low this can go. Cia Fbi nsa etc have already gathered enough data to sniff through for the next 10 years. Than they will have another Assbook to sponsor.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 04:58 | 2450125 drunkenlout
drunkenlout's picture

Ahah!   You see that most of FB's revenues have come from CIA, FBI, Homeland Security, and the other Fascist acronyms!  

Why would anyone pay to have their opinions ratted out to the Fascists?  This is the worst business model ever.   Unfriend me, right now!  I can't afford to be publically associated with any person who has a functioning brain.  The zombie government is coming for brains, and FB is showing them where to look.  

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 18:31 | 2449060 Acorn10012
Acorn10012's picture

Looks like 8 words.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 20:46 | 2449334 Colombian Gringo
Colombian Gringo's picture

Paying attention, I see <g>

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 01:33 | 2449901 Albertarocks
Albertarocks's picture





Mon, 05/21/2012 - 21:09 | 2449388 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

In a nutshell, I have to agree.  The insiders got out real quick, and the outsiders where suckered also by the CNBC cheering section for a week until Friday came about (they made sure it was on a Friday).  What Facebook is, is another version of myspace but more dynamic thats all.  In a few years if not next year another thing will come out and facebook will be a thing of the past. 

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 23:30 | 2449677 JeffB
JeffB's picture

I would think Morgan Stanley & Nasdaq have to share a lot of the blame. The computer screw ups were unbelievable. I don't see how they can make everyone happy whose trades weren't executed, or were but in the wrong direction etc. How are they going to piece back what valid prices would have been when so many limit orders were screwed up?

And they decided to bump the price and add additional shares shortly before the IPO? Somebody really screwed up there or demand suddenly plummeted at the last minute. Maybe it was Zerohedge's fault. and Reggie Middleton's. I'm sure all the movers and shakers were here and all of the disinformation was negated and too many people got cold feet.


Mon, 05/21/2012 - 23:56 | 2449729 European American
European American's picture

What is this "Facebook" anyway? Am I missing out on something "Big"?

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:42 | 2448955 malikai
malikai's picture

Shi bu hao!

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 18:25 | 2449054 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture



No Bai Dam Ting

[Translation: Facebook shares are too expensive]


Mon, 05/21/2012 - 19:32 | 2449165 CPL
CPL's picture

Please give a hand to Pool Shark he'll be here all week, please be sure to tip your waitress.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 22:43 | 2449600 BlueCollaredOne
BlueCollaredOne's picture

Also, dont forget to try the steak.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:46 | 2448963 bdc63
bdc63's picture

... or ...

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 05:51 | 2450154 cnhedge1
cnhedge1's picture

Are concerns over a Greek Euro exit overdone ?

Is the Euro area Credibly on Target?

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:36 | 2448932 BigMike
BigMike's picture


Mon, 05/21/2012 - 18:04 | 2448999 wretch
wretch's picture

On their free Facebook page, mind you.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:37 | 2448934 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

The real capitalists (china) know a bad deal when they see it.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:39 | 2448941 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

As a side note I thought the chinese version of running of the bulls was way more entertaining.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 18:41 | 2449004 Floordawg
Floordawg's picture

FISTFUCK(ed)! Summed up in song...

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:41 | 2448942 Born-Again Bankster
Born-Again Bankster's picture

Once the options start trading, FB will be pumped to near triple digits.  This drop was to get the retail gamblers to dump.  Maybe another week of the fade, but this is AAPL 2012 part artificially propped up runaway train to the upside.  All it will take is one press release about "effectively monetizing mobile" or some other BS and watch out.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:45 | 2448961 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

The martinis must really be strong this afternoon.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 18:12 | 2449021 SemperFord
SemperFord's picture

I think he is right, I said before that when it comes out it will go up, then down, sideways, then up and then crash!

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 21:28 | 2449436 Ranger4564
Ranger4564's picture

I think you're right that he's right.  I agree.  The fiasco was planned to come down a bit, make it look like a fail, then when it's propped up to go higher, it looks like everyone misread the market intention, piles in, stock price rises, that's when the real money will sell... plummet.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 21:41 | 2449471 Curt W
Curt W's picture

Heh Heh you said when it comes out it goes up.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 03:34 | 2450081 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

More likely though, it will just crash. Because there is nothing there. No innovation so no new income.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 19:23 | 2449150 SILVERGEDDON

Born again Bankster was still born. No reality in that boy's melon at all whatsoever. I blame it on the anti muppet faction - they have zombiefied him.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 20:38 | 2449317 Reptil
Reptil's picture


yum yum lol

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 23:15 | 2449655 Born-Again Bankster
Born-Again Bankster's picture

Damn...30 points to the downside on my comment.  WTF!  I was a bear.  I really was, until my shorts bloodied my face last fall and I got stopped out day after day after day and then realized: 1. 2012 is an election year.  2. Inflation in the form of equities is the easiest way the US can monetize its debt obligations and stealthily take money from the savers and 3. The market is a rigged piece of shit. 

If LNKD can go to 120, FB can have a 200 billion market cap.  Not saying it's justified.  Just saying that the people trying to make logical bets on the financials last fall based on fundamentals, myself included, learned the hard way.  FB will be at 80 in the next 3 months.  You heard it here.  Disclosure: no positions, but stacking phyz like it's nobody's bizz.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 14:50 | 2459729 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture


It IS a bear market built on fraudulent balance sheets. use calls & puts together for higher volatility plays. Otherwise be wary & write Calls really short-term.

Seriously though for big money, best savings, it's gold & a little silver that help the most.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 18:16 | 2449036 spooz
spooz's picture

Right.  Just hold on to your shares, the spike is coming.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 18:54 | 2449099 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

and then he can make enough money to Take over the World!

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 23:29 | 2449675 Born-Again Bankster
Born-Again Bankster's picture

When CNBC is telling me not to catch the Facebook Falling Knife and Cramer says to stay away, it's going nowhere but up.  Just sayin.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 07:15 | 2450219 bdc63
bdc63's picture

at $34 dollars Facebook has a PE of 75 ... so, you think it should be higher than that? ....

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 19:55 | 2449224 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Do us all a favor and dump every dollar you have into facebook and AAPL.

Once you're bankrupt and homeless maybe you'll learn your lesson BEFORE you open your yap.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 21:32 | 2449445 Ranger4564
Ranger4564's picture

My mom bought AAPL at 400/share. It was at 600/share not more than 3 months later.  It settled down towards 560 today.  There are some stocks no one quite knows when they'll be knocked down for the last count, but AAPL is not dead yet and staying out has just cost me money... although I'm relatively safe since i'm in gold / silver bullion.  Just saying...yes, I warned her to stay out, but she did ok for herself here.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 01:34 | 2449902 TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

< Extreme Theory Time >

Have you read that story about how building skycrapers or other large projects signals the top in a local economy?

My theory is the big 'UFO' being built for Apple in Cupertino, California will be a similar event, but on a corporate rather than economic-wide scale.

Again, just a theory.


Tue, 05/22/2012 - 08:45 | 2450365 Ranger4564
Ranger4564's picture

I'm completely aware the economy is tanking and I would argue intentionally... all I'm saying is this economy is being destroyed slower than many predicted, and in the mean time, there were opportunities to accumulate more fiat along the way, so one could buy more metals before the bottom.  All I was saying is that even though i warned my Mom about the risks, she made a profit on AAPL because the bottom is not here yet, and she will do whatever she feels she wants with her money... she's not convinced I'm right, go figure.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 14:45 | 2459714 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

That's cool. She could write Calls but if that's too hard for her at least suggest she figures out how to set a stop-loss price for her shares so she's OK. Somehow just lock in those profits...

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 19:58 | 2449235 theTribster
theTribster's picture

I tend to agree with you, it will be too easy for the Fed to perform its sophisticated manipulation operations by using FB, like it does APPL, as its proxies to manipulate price. Now he has two good tools instead of just one, and let's face it he needs as many tools as he can get (I wonder how many work for him? tools that is).

It is definitely a little drastic in terms of shaking out weak hands, 11% is pretty extreme. I'm surprised it moved this much south in its second day frankly, regardless of its valuation or other dynamics. Once the options are available things will change naturally as people gain the ability to hedge. I feel bad for everyone that got in and were probably seeing images of a doubling of price!

I don't like Zuckerberg so in that sense I'm happy the arrogant little piece of shit got bitch slapped by the market today - I'm sure he was tracking his net worth all day! The word of the day for Zuckerberg is POOF!, he can refer to Corzine to get a good definition. Who knows Zuckerberg might be able to figure out where his money went - you know, since he's sooo smart? and then they can help find Corzine's lost funds...

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 20:28 | 2449297 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

AAPL is part of an index.  FB is not.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 04:27 | 2450109 SheHunter
SheHunter's picture

You may not like him but Zuckerberg made an idea work to his advantage. Which is what all of us pursue at different levels. Give the guy a break. So he comes across badly on camera. He worked through the multi-layers of the marketing system, turned the right screws and got 'er done. Bezos is not the greatest personality either.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 22:35 | 2449586 Tijuana Donkey Show
Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

Your MDB, admit it! Only MDB would say something like this. 

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:39 | 2448944 malikai
malikai's picture

Morgan Stanley struck a Suckerberg.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 21:01 | 2449371 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Morgan Stanley has a short position actually. Whether or not it's a net short position....

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:42 | 2448951 Keith Piccirillo
Keith Piccirillo's picture

Thoroughly enjoyable cartoon.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:44 | 2448957 SourNStout
SourNStout's picture

IPO=It's Probably Over-Priced

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 21:35 | 2449455 Ranger4564
Ranger4564's picture

Probably / Potentially >> Positively / Poisonously / Passionately / Perversely

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 06:36 | 2450186 BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

It's Probably Over. Before you know it, FB starts canibalizing its user base ahead of every quarterly report. Their balance sheet looks pretty ok, but that is about to change also.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:47 | 2448965 navy62802
navy62802's picture

The facebook bull goring people in the back is perfect. Nicely done.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:53 | 2448975 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I can't wait for the Elliott Wave amateurs to start hacking counts on this pig... Oh wait! I don't really give a fuck...

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:54 | 2448978 Catullus
Catullus's picture

The Blimp that sucks money out of you is terrifying.  Quick.  Call The Bernank.  To the copter!

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:56 | 2448980 Walt D.
Walt D.'s picture

Let's look on the bright side - all the members of Congress who got preferential allocation on this IPO will be taking a bath. 

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 18:18 | 2449041 Rainman
Rainman's picture

And Zuck married Chinese and gets dual citizenship privileges....everybody a winner !

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 18:56 | 2449103 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

actually he has a place to go where the IRS can't demand he pay confiscatory taxes. 

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:57 | 2448984 Coffin Dodger
Coffin Dodger's picture

Irrational exhuberance never really went away, eh?

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:58 | 2448986 hannah
hannah's picture

too funny they end the video stating 'go to facebook ' to check us out....?!

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 18:06 | 2449007 wretch
wretch's picture

Here's the thing about stupid fads: everyone's doing it (right now).  That alone makes an "awesome" social platform, but it does not make a viable business.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 18:46 | 2449089 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Here's the thing about stupid fads: everyone's doing it (right now).  That alone makes an "awesome" social platform, but it does not make a viable business

I especially like the way GM(Gov Motors),screwed them over JUST in the nick of time.

An accident??,Sure......................

There are 600 million members of FB, given some time and MORE advertisers, watch out.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 03:43 | 2450085 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

GM has no incentive to screw anyone in this case, they just report facts. Many people have had bad results with Facebook advertising, myself included. Spend 300$ on advertising, not a SINGLE dollar was made and relatively few clicks for the money. You're mostly advertising to people who want FREE services and have NO LIFE. Bad audience.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:58 | 2448987 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

GS is portrayed as the evil hedge fund robbing widows again. lulz

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 18:00 | 2448992 zerotohero
zerotohero's picture

I hear through the grapevine that the Facebook manufacturing facilities located here in the U.S. are going to ship their machinary overseas to China and Facebooks will now be made there. All those American jobs lost in the manufacturing sector once again.



Mon, 05/21/2012 - 18:07 | 2449008 cheesewizz
cheesewizz's picture

Market cap larger than MCD and CAT to name a few. What a joke. I shut down my FB accout yesterday . Close your FB in protest NOW

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 00:25 | 2449799 Race Car Driver
Race Car Driver's picture

In protest of what? Having a larger market cap than a synthetic food manufacturer and a defense industry giant? 

How 'bout closin' it because it's just the smart thing to do? 

Some day, it'll be hip to say "I never had a Facebook account."

I never had a Facebook account.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 06:44 | 2450192 hamurobby
hamurobby's picture

Like tribal tatoos, but hopefully FB wont leave a mark.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 18:12 | 2449015 Barometer
Barometer's picture

Liiiiiiiike !!

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 18:11 | 2449016 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"Get animated, find out more on Facebook."

Kind of funny, but maybe they are whoring the interface; kind of like fingering the merchandise at Best Buy then buying online for 20% less.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 18:13 | 2449024 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

That cartoon had more value than Facebook...thanks for posting.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 18:16 | 2449033 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

Today's FB loss was just the Investment Banks diving for cover. Wait till shorting is allowed on this sucker.

The only way to save it is if Walmart starts selling it.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 18:17 | 2449038 youngman
youngman's picture

I assume Zuckerberg will have to pay taxes on the $38 price tag of the stock..right??????  good for when it hits $20 a share..he will be paying "his fair share" a very high he likes to I am I said before ..this will be the moment in the future where everyone knew it was changing..

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 18:34 | 2449065 XtraBullish
XtraBullish's picture

I am XtraBullish on the Faceplant puts when they start to trade - target is a fin ski - $5.00. Zuck makes me sick; after reading the Jobs bio, I would love to say:" I knew Steve Jobs; Steve Jobs was a friend of mine; you, sir, are NO Steve Jobs." - but I won't.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 19:13 | 2449128 billybobtx
billybobtx's picture

How's your messiah now?

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 00:46 | 2449836 Dirt Rat
Dirt Rat's picture

Still the accomplished psychopath he ever was.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 19:20 | 2449141 SILVERGEDDON

It just goes to show - just because a broker says it is true - doesn't make it so. Sex, lies, and videotape ? No habla fuckmeover, Wall Street. If the greedy bastards had painted the tape at a more realistic opener, way more guppies could have jumped on board for the ride down to a realistic share price after a few more days of frenzy and euphoria. Greedy dumb asses scared away all the fish with stinky bait.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 19:21 | 2449144 Hulk
Hulk's picture

We ought to do a cartoon like this one, showing how the chinese have bought into the biggest bubble in world history,


Mon, 05/21/2012 - 19:49 | 2449207 malikai
malikai's picture

Hmm.. Productivity or Ipads? I'll take productivity.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 19:56 | 2449230 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

RobotTrader... we miss you


Mon, 05/21/2012 - 20:03 | 2449252 SILVERGEDDON

And, million dollar douche - WTF happened to his paper stock and fiat loving ass ?

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 20:15 | 2449274 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Kinda reminds me of Claymation.  I was half expecting the Heat Miser to appear, sing his signature tune, then light a fire beneath the underwriter's ass, with the little mini-misers poking an MS market-maker with a tiny pitchfork each time it quoted near 38 ...

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 21:37 | 2449460 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Davy and Goliath

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 20:43 | 2449326 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

TPTB trotted this turd out and expected the polishing of this turd to save their sorry asses, glad to see they FAILED!

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 20:44 | 2449330 luckylogger
luckylogger's picture

We will get some fed dude saying that FB reduced inflation by_______ and then we can all eat facebook.

What a deal.

I would rather suck my avitar>>>>>

at least that is better than eating ipads and facebook posts............

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 21:13 | 2449374 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Already the MSM is starting to gloss over this Facebook catastrophe like it's no big deal. This will become the new status quo. Maria Bartiromo is digging into the exchange glitches, concurring with the NASDAQ that they will  be fixed the next time. Cramer is making a big show today by screaming sell (after his buy recomendation to $70). But, his reason? The IPO was poorly executed. Everyone is conveniently avoiding the real truth; the fact that all the insiders knew the stock was worthless to begin with and the whole thing was a Wall Street push fraud from day one. What a con. Why haven't we seen one interview with Facebook or Wall Street execs who were on the inside of this? Doesn't Sheryl Sandberg have anything to say about this disaster? Or does she just get interviewed when she's giving away investor money to noble causes and charities? Divert, distract, disguise, ignore, avoid, lie, and when all else fails, blame the janitor. That's their game to the end, and it guarantees their game will end.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 21:19 | 2449418 luckylogger
luckylogger's picture

Me thinks you hit it right on the nose and in 5 years fb will be history.

They got their way they could get more, it just is not possible.

Take the money and run......

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 21:04 | 2449379 tomlamon
tomlamon's picture

The clip is just another example of how Orientals despise/hate western/ Caucasian cultures.  

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 21:12 | 2449400 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

"Orientals" ?!   Um .... apparently your mom just called the ZH hotline and said to turn off that darn computer and get back to your homework, unless you want to repeat summer school again.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 21:18 | 2449412 tomlamon
tomlamon's picture

I have spent 7 years among Orientals ( 7 of them) trading ( 2000 -2007) I was a research assistant. I went bankrupt in 2008 while they made millions. I have never experienced so much sneaky hatred – they smiled in my face and stabbed me the back when turned away. Since I am amongst only white Americans I have been doing well and have true friends.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 21:37 | 2449461 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Oh, and your mom also said to stop eating the dog's food.  (Surprised those darn 'Orientals' had to stab you - I would have thought one of those karate kicks like in the movies would have sufficed, and lent more credence to your story)

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 21:55 | 2449503 tomlamon
tomlamon's picture

You have no idea what you are talking about my friend. I have extensive experience with Koreans and Chinese infiltrated our country. I started learning mandarin in 2002 out of respect toward my employers. I was called and egg was stolen from and insulted every day and when I was asked for help I was denied. Koreans and Chinese nationals are the most brutal stealthy enemies of the western culture. They are primitive and infantile liar thugs. 

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 22:28 | 2449567 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

I can sense what you're really after:  a few good film recommendations.  Start with anything by Hou Hsiao-Hsien, then watch "A Brighter Summer Day", "Days of Being Wild" and "Maborosi", then, if you're feeling adventurous, move on to Hong Sang-soo. 

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 22:48 | 2449606 tomlamon
tomlamon's picture

OK I get it. You are one of them.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 23:23 | 2449670 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

Just wondering what ur native language is, since it's not english

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 09:46 | 2450685 tomlamon
tomlamon's picture

My native language is flemish ( from Belgium) just to provide you with a surface for attack.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 19:48 | 2453323 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Josquin des Prez would be ashamed of you.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 20:40 | 2453482 tomlamon
tomlamon's picture


Mon, 05/21/2012 - 21:14 | 2449403 Yohimbo
Yohimbo's picture

I really hope zuckerbergs face is on these stock certs, because if so, its gonna make even better toilet paper.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 21:20 | 2449419 Change-In-Trend
Change-In-Trend's picture

AstroCycle predicting downturn into June and miners cycle looking weak.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 21:24 | 2449429 luckylogger
luckylogger's picture

just watched the video, it is very accurate.....

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 21:53 | 2449482 WallowaMountainMan
WallowaMountainMan's picture

ok, sure. i no nothing. but, like, so what.

me get more fb. bla bla blas street talk. math this and that. all because failure to see business model for fb. i see one. simple. scaleable. win-win-win. advertiser- fb-user.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 21:59 | 2449511 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

A fella wanted to sell me six one ounce gold maple leafs last week so he could put the funds in the Facebook IPO.  I couldn't get him the funds fast enough.  Hopefully, the poor bastard was unsuccessful in the sale of his gold maple leafs.  Dumb fuck!

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 22:10 | 2449531 Psyman
Psyman's picture

I had my finger on the trigger to buy 2000 shares at $42 on the assumption that the market manipulators would run it up.  Glad I didn't go through with that.  It seems all the hype from the entire mainstream financial media couldn't convince people that Facebook was worth $100 billion fucking dollars.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 23:25 | 2449672 Machination
Machination's picture

here is an interesting article

It appears that the trading on Monday, in particular two large block trades at the very end of the day over 1.1 million shares each, and all the trades through the day were holding the 34.01 floor.

Key events to watch out for:

1) MS liquidating its entire short position (this will actually create down pressure on the stock after liquidation is complete)

2) 3 month lockup end

3) Options availability

4) 6 month lockup end

5) Next financial reporting date.

6) A wave of new analysis after that reporting date

If management is clever, there is actually a strategy in place to drive revenue upwards quickly. Unfortunately, when one looks at the FB demographic, it is not a positive statistic. I live in South East Asia, I see how people use FB in Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, these have been huge growth markets for FB over the last year, in particular Indonesia and Philippines. And we are talking about street vendors, housewives of very low income (by USA standards would be extreme poverty), and yes they use it to post status and talk with friends while sitting there waiting for customers or while at work being unproductive serfs. Explain to me how they are going to monetize that demographic, which from what I see is the large majority of their demographic in Asia. Microfinance? Way too many regulatory hurdles. Credit card? Way too many regulatory hurdles. Flog goods? The large demographic I am referring too does not have disposable income. FB Phone? See Microsoft and Nokia there, the space is crowded even though its booming. Advertising? This leaves primarily the consumer goods market, since this demographic pretty much only buys consumables. And this category of advertising, for non discretionary consumer spending, is not going to get better results from money spent on FB as opposed to where they are spending now, the budget in that space is allocated and FB won't be able to claw that away from existing allocations, unless they figure out a way around FCPA, because that space is full of agencies and "middlemen" in Asia, lol.

How many shares were sold to the average FB user from their personal brokerage account? Think about it, how many of those 1 billion or so users they say they have actually bought a share, a single share (38$). What about 10 shares (380$), what about 100 shares? I would guess that the dollars raised from sales individual retail investors who could be described as "avid FB users" numbers in the 7 maybe 8 digits. 9 digits I highly doubt". This says a lot about FB right here.

Were the insiders aware of the above fact? yes, and they proved it by selling huge blocks of shares

Were the bankers aware? Oh yes.

FB shares have been trading on "secondary" private market for a long time. There was 800 million USD share block posted on a private investment forum over a year ago which valued the company at 65 billion or so, I know people who mad a killing brokering FB shares for the past 5 years, a lot of those deals they were paid in shares. These were HNWI from all over the world trading in these shares, then Goldman came along with its private offering vehicle, the whole thing has been like a dutch tulip fiasco. All those investors are going to cash out, mark my words the minute the lockup expires for them, they will book their profit, they don't believe or care if FB has a way to monetize traffic, they just hopped on for the ride and are ready to get off the train and book their profits.

Will MZ be the next Bezos and announce a grand plan to use the 7 billion in cash proceeds to leverage into bricks and mortar and drive earnings? One can speculate, but I doubt there is a ripe industry around ready to have a large bite taken out of it like books and media was when Amazon was post IPO, and Bezos had an amazing ability to execute the plan. This is a longshot in my mind and the world is much more consolidated today then back then.

Will FB turn into a Google competitor? Maybe, but a longshot. Android, Google Chrome, Gmail, Google Apps, Google Enterprise, Ad Sense, Google +, Picassa, Google's physical backbone network, Google Earth, Google Maps, even if FB had every computer user on the planet, I don't think they have the vision and execution talent to compete with anything Google, they are outclassed. They do have that social network though ;)

Will FB experience attrition? I think this has already started. People become bored with the same poo day in day out, the "like" and "thumb" are icons that won't be around for years and years, or is humanity really that stupid?

Will FB buy revenue growth? Well, judging from Instagram deal it appears revenues are not high on the acquisition list. That deal alone is an elephant in the room. Who pays 1 billion for poo like that with zero revenues, I don't care if you have 100 billion, spending 1 on that not what I would define as clever, and would even venture a description more akin to "breech of fiduciary duty".

The past months I've seen FB ads everywhere, and I mean *everywhere*, I really wonder how much their ad spend was this last quarter. They must have burned a huge wad of cash, because there were ads on every site, all the time. There is no more "viral" growth, it will be very interesting to see how much they have spent this last quarter for each new user. I bet its huge. And it will be more interesting to see if the ad spend continues, it is comical how often you see FB banners, ads, etc. right now, absolutely comical.

I think a fair value for FB today is around 15-20X earnings. Until there is a plan presented or a strategy executed that proves the FB userbase can be monetized. That day may come, it may not.

Disclosure: I do not hold any position in FB securities, nor plan to in the near future.


Mon, 05/21/2012 - 23:54 | 2449722 European American
European American's picture

900 million idiots bought into the Farcebook program. 

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 00:06 | 2449745 Godisanhftbot
Godisanhftbot's picture

 What tipped me off to selling my allocation at 42.90 was the goofy looking ceo of the co. Bad omen.


 Reminds me of the day I hit the bid when TSCM, Cramers dud, opened in the 60's.


 I don't like to ride in flaming dirigibles.


Tue, 05/22/2012 - 01:00 | 2449860 marketcycles79
marketcycles79's picture

My friend echen at Humblestudent blog has been providing great cycle work on the markets for years. Please see his work at

I highly recommend the analysis provided and think it is a unique insight to the markets not found elsewhere.


Tue, 05/22/2012 - 01:01 | 2449863 Dirt Rat
Tue, 05/22/2012 - 01:31 | 2449897 JohnKozac
JohnKozac's picture

Lucent plunged from 62 down to 8...Pufff! ...just like that.


Tue, 05/22/2012 - 01:52 | 2449928 UGrev
UGrev's picture

I don't know what I find more disturbing The fact that people actually bought into FB..or the fact that Asians are so cock-n-balls crazy for animation that they actually animate their news.  Weird, strange little fuckers over there. 

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 02:09 | 2449957 potlatch
potlatch's picture

I recommend watching this video next.  you will thank me for the insight.


of if you prefer, the facebook page for this youtube video:





win double thousand

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 02:15 | 2449961 q99x2
q99x2's picture

These banksters crooks will be trying to pawn off shares of the FED next.

You'll be able to buy debt with your credit card.

They'll throw in an overdraft charge for free.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 02:35 | 2449988 Floodmaster
Floodmaster's picture

Windows 8 People tile remove all the facebook ads,  FaceBook has no business model at all, it's just a bankster/Bono ->   $1.5 billion! scam.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 02:37 | 2450027 Jason Bourne
Jason Bourne's picture

Fucking FB. The thing about FB that pisses me off the most is that GS, JPM and MS and some other Wall street PRICKS were able to make a lot of money on a peice of hyped up shit, again on the backs of normal ignorant Americans.

Can this shit be stopped somehow? They didn't do anything illegal - but they still fucked people out of their money. That makes it even more fucking frustrating.

Is there no fucking end to the disgusting corruption that takes place on Wall Street and Main street?

The USA needs a deep enema.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 03:47 | 2450091 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

Yes but they're running out of muppets fast. This FB disaster proves it. So instead of more regulation, let the free market take care of it.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 05:41 | 2450146 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

Yeah - works for facebook - how's it going to work with your power or water supply?


The free market can bring down frivilous uneccessaries - but essentials will always be exploited.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 06:17 | 2450172 Mudja
Mudja's picture

What makes me LOL is that Zuckerberg has $18billion and all he can get is a Thai bride. Fail.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 06:43 | 2450190 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Gee, I don't understand it. FBerg "made" billions of these "facebooks." I could never find one, they were apparently always sold out at the computer store.

I must have bought 10 million shares, figuring I'd make a huge profit on a hard-to-find item, but now the stock price is crashing.

Is there a warranty issue now on these "facebooks?"

This doesn't make any sense.

Where is this "facebook" factory anyway? Do they come in colors?

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