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Facebook IPO Post-Mortem For Dummies

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Over the weekend we presented a very sophisticated, bottoms-up, trade-level analysis of the Facebook IPO debacle courtesy of Nanex. Now that the $38 underwriter-supported price has been breached with gusto, and absolutely anyone and everyone who bought into the Facebook IPO and still holds the stock as of market close has suffered major losses, here is a far more simplified, grass-roots, animated Facebook post-mortem for the 'rest of us'... many of whom likely are nursing 10-20% losses in the span of 48 hours.

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Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:33 | 2448923 TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

I'm sure all Facebook needs is to have some debt sliced up into CDO tranches... hey, it worked (for a while) in the real estate market.

Or just market an anti-social network like 'ShutYourFace.com'.

 

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:40 | 2448947 e-man
e-man's picture

Stop giving him ideas! 

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:58 | 2448985 Colombian Gringo
Colombian Gringo's picture

 9 word Summary of article:  Stupid goy suckered by the chosen ones, again.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 18:16 | 2449030 resurger
resurger's picture

ehm.. Mark sold 10bn shares to cover his wedding expenses, am sure he will announce stock buy back very soon.

when the share is $1

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 18:33 | 2449064 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

FaceMuppets.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 19:58 | 2449236 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

As a child, I had only one or two Imaginary Friends. Now, I have thousands. They just keep piling on. I'll buy that for a dollar.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 22:49 | 2449607 knukles
knukles's picture

And here's the real valuation question before the house.

Does Zuckerberg make a good imaginary seasoned CEO handling anything more than weasel?

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 02:00 | 2449936 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

LOST FACE

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 21:35 | 2449453 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

I does not matter how low this can go. Cia Fbi nsa etc have already gathered enough data to sniff through for the next 10 years. Than they will have another Assbook to sponsor.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 04:58 | 2450125 drunkenlout
drunkenlout's picture

Ahah!   You see that most of FB's revenues have come from CIA, FBI, Homeland Security, and the other Fascist acronyms!  

Why would anyone pay to have their opinions ratted out to the Fascists?  This is the worst business model ever.   Unfriend me, right now!  I can't afford to be publically associated with any person who has a functioning brain.  The zombie government is coming for brains, and FB is showing them where to look.  

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 18:31 | 2449060 Acorn10012
Acorn10012's picture

Looks like 8 words.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 20:46 | 2449334 Colombian Gringo
Colombian Gringo's picture

Paying attention, I see <g>

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 01:33 | 2449901 Albertarocks
Albertarocks's picture

Huh?

 

 

LMAO

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 21:09 | 2449388 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

In a nutshell, I have to agree.  The insiders got out real quick, and the outsiders where suckered also by the CNBC cheering section for a week until Friday came about (they made sure it was on a Friday).  What Facebook is, is another version of myspace but more dynamic thats all.  In a few years if not next year another thing will come out and facebook will be a thing of the past. 

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 23:30 | 2449677 JeffB
JeffB's picture

I would think Morgan Stanley & Nasdaq have to share a lot of the blame. The computer screw ups were unbelievable. I don't see how they can make everyone happy whose trades weren't executed, or were but in the wrong direction etc. How are they going to piece back what valid prices would have been when so many limit orders were screwed up?

And they decided to bump the price and add additional shares shortly before the IPO? Somebody really screwed up there or demand suddenly plummeted at the last minute. Maybe it was Zerohedge's fault. and Reggie Middleton's. I'm sure all the movers and shakers were here and all of the disinformation was negated and too many people got cold feet.

 

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 23:56 | 2449729 European American
European American's picture

What is this "Facebook" anyway? Am I missing out on something "Big"?

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:42 | 2448955 malikai
malikai's picture

Shi bu hao!

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 18:25 | 2449054 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

No Bai Dam Ting

[Translation: Facebook shares are too expensive]

 

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 19:32 | 2449165 CPL
CPL's picture

Please give a hand to Pool Shark he'll be here all week, please be sure to tip your waitress.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 22:43 | 2449600 BlueCollaredOne
BlueCollaredOne's picture

Also, dont forget to try the steak.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:46 | 2448963 bdc63
bdc63's picture

... or ZuckMyDick.com ...

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 05:51 | 2450154 cnhedge1
cnhedge1's picture

Are concerns over a Greek Euro exit overdone ?
http://www.cnhedge.com/thread-4852-1-1.html

Is the Euro area Credibly on Target?
http://www.cnhedge.com/thread-4838-1-1.html

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:36 | 2448932 BigMike
BigMike's picture

"GET ANIMATED..FIND OUT MORE ON FACEBOOK..." umm...

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 18:04 | 2448999 wretch
wretch's picture

On their free Facebook page, mind you.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:37 | 2448934 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

The real capitalists (china) know a bad deal when they see it.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:39 | 2448941 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

As a side note I thought the chinese version of running of the bulls was way more entertaining.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 18:41 | 2449004 Floordawg
Floordawg's picture

FISTFUCK(ed)! Summed up in song...

www.youtube.com/watch?v=NTvcNm1ksRg

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:41 | 2448942 Born-Again Bankster
Born-Again Bankster's picture

Once the options start trading, FB will be pumped to near triple digits.  This drop was to get the retail gamblers to dump.  Maybe another week of the fade, but this is AAPL 2012 part deux...an artificially propped up runaway train to the upside.  All it will take is one press release about "effectively monetizing mobile" or some other BS and watch out.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 17:45 | 2448961 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

The martinis must really be strong this afternoon.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 18:12 | 2449021 SemperFord
SemperFord's picture

I think he is right, I said before that when it comes out it will go up, then down, sideways, then up and then crash!

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 21:28 | 2449436 Ranger4564
Ranger4564's picture

I think you're right that he's right.  I agree.  The fiasco was planned to come down a bit, make it look like a fail, then when it's propped up to go higher, it looks like everyone misread the market intention, piles in, stock price rises, that's when the real money will sell... plummet.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 21:41 | 2449471 Curt W
Curt W's picture

Heh Heh you said when it comes out it goes up.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 03:34 | 2450081 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

More likely though, it will just crash. Because there is nothing there. No innovation so no new income.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 19:23 | 2449150 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Born again Bankster was still born. No reality in that boy's melon at all whatsoever. I blame it on the anti muppet faction - they have zombiefied him.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 20:38 | 2449317 Reptil
Reptil's picture

scopolamine

yum yum lol

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 23:15 | 2449655 Born-Again Bankster
Born-Again Bankster's picture

Damn...30 points to the downside on my comment.  WTF!  I was a bear.  I really was, until my shorts bloodied my face last fall and I got stopped out day after day after day and then realized: 1. 2012 is an election year.  2. Inflation in the form of equities is the easiest way the US can monetize its debt obligations and stealthily take money from the savers and 3. The market is a rigged piece of shit. 

If LNKD can go to 120, FB can have a 200 billion market cap.  Not saying it's justified.  Just saying that the people trying to make logical bets on the financials last fall based on fundamentals, myself included, learned the hard way.  FB will be at 80 in the next 3 months.  You heard it here.  Disclosure: no positions, but stacking phyz like it's nobody's bizz.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 14:50 | 2459729 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

duh.

It IS a bear market built on fraudulent balance sheets. use calls & puts together for higher volatility plays. Otherwise be wary & write Calls really short-term.

Seriously though for big money, best savings, it's gold & a little silver that help the most.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 18:16 | 2449036 spooz
spooz's picture

Right.  Just hold on to your shares, the spike is coming.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 18:54 | 2449099 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

and then he can make enough money to Take over the World!

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 23:29 | 2449675 Born-Again Bankster
Born-Again Bankster's picture

When CNBC is telling me not to catch the Facebook Falling Knife and Cramer says to stay away, it's going nowhere but up.  Just sayin.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 07:15 | 2450219 bdc63
bdc63's picture

at $34 dollars Facebook has a PE of 75 ... so, you think it should be higher than that? ....

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 19:55 | 2449224 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Do us all a favor and dump every dollar you have into facebook and AAPL.

Once you're bankrupt and homeless maybe you'll learn your lesson BEFORE you open your yap.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 21:32 | 2449445 Ranger4564
Ranger4564's picture

My mom bought AAPL at 400/share. It was at 600/share not more than 3 months later.  It settled down towards 560 today.  There are some stocks no one quite knows when they'll be knocked down for the last count, but AAPL is not dead yet and staying out has just cost me money... although I'm relatively safe since i'm in gold / silver bullion.  Just saying...yes, I warned her to stay out, but she did ok for herself here.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 01:34 | 2449902 TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

< Extreme Theory Time >

Have you read that story about how building skycrapers or other large projects signals the top in a local economy?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16494013

My theory is the big 'UFO' being built for Apple in Cupertino, California will be a similar event, but on a corporate rather than economic-wide scale.

Again, just a theory.

 

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 08:45 | 2450365 Ranger4564
Ranger4564's picture

I'm completely aware the economy is tanking and I would argue intentionally... all I'm saying is this economy is being destroyed slower than many predicted, and in the mean time, there were opportunities to accumulate more fiat along the way, so one could buy more metals before the bottom.  All I was saying is that even though i warned my Mom about the risks, she made a profit on AAPL because the bottom is not here yet, and she will do whatever she feels she wants with her money... she's not convinced I'm right, go figure.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 14:45 | 2459714 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

That's cool. She could write Calls but if that's too hard for her at least suggest she figures out how to set a stop-loss price for her shares so she's OK. Somehow just lock in those profits...

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 19:58 | 2449235 theTribster
theTribster's picture

I tend to agree with you, it will be too easy for the Fed to perform its sophisticated manipulation operations by using FB, like it does APPL, as its proxies to manipulate price. Now he has two good tools instead of just one, and let's face it he needs as many tools as he can get (I wonder how many work for him? tools that is).

It is definitely a little drastic in terms of shaking out weak hands, 11% is pretty extreme. I'm surprised it moved this much south in its second day frankly, regardless of its valuation or other dynamics. Once the options are available things will change naturally as people gain the ability to hedge. I feel bad for everyone that got in and were probably seeing images of a doubling of price!

I don't like Zuckerberg so in that sense I'm happy the arrogant little piece of shit got bitch slapped by the market today - I'm sure he was tracking his net worth all day! The word of the day for Zuckerberg is POOF!, he can refer to Corzine to get a good definition. Who knows Zuckerberg might be able to figure out where his money went - you know, since he's sooo smart? and then they can help find Corzine's lost funds...

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 20:28 | 2449297 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

AAPL is part of an index.  FB is not.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 04:27 | 2450109 SheHunter
SheHunter's picture

You may not like him but Zuckerberg made an idea work to his advantage. Which is what all of us pursue at different levels. Give the guy a break. So he comes across badly on camera. He worked through the multi-layers of the marketing system, turned the right screws and got 'er done. Bezos is not the greatest personality either.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 22:35 | 2449586 Tijuana Donkey Show
Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

Your MDB, admit it! Only MDB would say something like this. 

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