FaceBook Makes Monness Crespi Idea Dinner Short List: Full Stock Pick Summary

Tyler Durden's picture

Now that the Ira Sohn conference has become a worthless hypefest, in which everyone and their kitchen sink is invited in a desperate attempt by hedge funds to offload positions put on ages ago to witless alphaclone chasers, the real "idea dinners" are few and far between. One such remaining one, which unlike others does not seek to publicize its positions to every retail investor, is that held by Monness Crespi, in which very select hedge funds are invited. Below we summarize the stock picks from last night's dinner. We are not at all surprised to find FaceBook already making enemies.

MCH Technology Idea Dinner

1)    Netflix Inc. (NFLX) – Short
2)    Indira Sistemas (IDR SM) – Long
3)    China Unicom (762 HK) – Short
4)    TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL) – Long
5)    Western Digital Corp. (WDC) – Long
6)    Facebook Inc. (FB) – Short
7)    AAC Technologies Holdings Inc. (2018 HK) – Long
8)    Taiwan Seminconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) – Short
9)    Allscripts Healthcare Solutions (MDRX) – Long
10)   Google Commentary – Long
11)   Unisys Corp. (UIS) – Short
12)   Broadsoft Inc. (BSFT) – Long
13)   Mastec Inc. (MTZ) – Long

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Jim in MN's picture

FacePlant, bitchez

AlaricBalth's picture

Facebook has clearly plateaued and is in decline among users. Their bounce rate, which is the estimated percentage of visits that have a single page view, has increased dramatically from 12% in Jan. 2011 to 26.4% currently. FB's Time on Site stats have gone from 32 minutes per day (12/2011) each user to 24 minutes per day. People are spending less time on FB. Their ad click-thru rate is half the industry average at a paltry 0.051% of active users. Google Trends also shows a flattening in the curve of searches for Facebook. http://www.google.com/trends/?q=facebook


Bananamerican's picture


6)    Facebook Inc. (FB) – Short

that lasted about as long as Zuck's honeymoon...

GMadScientist's picture

People pay these clowns for picks?! LOL

Where's Muddy Waters when you need him?

LawsofPhysics's picture

Why do these guys keep shorting the chip manufacturers?  I see a huge boom for AMD and TSM making the chips for all the new computers that will be needed to fly drones, and process all the information that the governements are now collecting via the web and all the cameras around the globe.  Heck, they just put a stop light on one of our county roads, many miles from any other light, and there are cameras on the lights looking in every direction.   Really?  WTF, I wonder if I can get a weblink so I can watch the soybean grow (planted on two sides of this road).  Really?  This is an effective use of taxpayer dollars?

LoneStarHog's picture

Are you sure that you are not confusing those items for county-supplied targets? :)

trippy64's picture

Those arent cameras, they are sensors. Instead of digging into the asphat to determine the arrival of a car, they use sensors now.

Grinder74's picture

Don't you mean asphalt?  Asphat was Moochelle's high school nickname.

Oh regional Indian's picture

At the same time, Western Digital is a long. 

Perhaps we are watching a tectonic shift from processing magic to storage and retiieval magic? Perhaps it's not chip power but net computing power that doubles. 

I have a terabyte drive. 3 years ago, it was obscenely priced. Now eveyone has movies and more movies and torrents and torrents of data.

More and more to store, less and less to process.

Interesting for sure.




Hunch Trader's picture

WD's 1 and 2 TB drives blow up a little too easy for a long.


fredquimby's picture

Isn't that what shotguns are for?

KandiRaverHipster's picture

i guess it's because no one wants to buy stock in a company that develops and manufactures the most advanced technology (read: CPUs and micro-architectures) that currently exists.  that and the stock price doesn't go up 354% over 2 years.  Ben Graham constantly spins in his grave at 9?/s

williambanzai7's picture

No mention of AAPL probably because they are playing AAPL poker with each other.

Sutton's picture

I'm sure these guys are already short FB.  No one goes to jail for financial crimes except for tawdry inside traders/perjurers.

chrispycrunch's picture

I'll buy Facebook when it's $9.

GMadScientist's picture

That should limit your loss considerably.


Hunch Trader's picture

Why pay more than Bono. Facebook has no real earnings model. Only hardcore addicts pay for Zynga stuff etc. Most people never click on any ads, and the ads that do get clicked are brand-awareness ads, not conversions to income. That don't bring in the money.


ChickenTikka's picture

Why's UIS a short? 

TWSceptic's picture

It's amazing to me how anyone can think FB will beat companies like Google or Apple. Yet that is exactly what people think will happen when they're buying FB now. It should be obvious that this is impossible. FB is grossly overvalued, even at 20% of current valuation.

gmak's picture



(What would Whitney do?)

bahaar's picture

Facebook is a fad.  I don't see the next generation (of human-beings) using Facebook.  Who'll want to belong to the same club as their parents?

bahaar's picture

What is Google Commentary?