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FaceBook Makes Monness Crespi Idea Dinner Short List: Full Stock Pick Summary

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Now that the Ira Sohn conference has become a worthless hypefest, in which everyone and their kitchen sink is invited in a desperate attempt by hedge funds to offload positions put on ages ago to witless alphaclone chasers, the real "idea dinners" are few and far between. One such remaining one, which unlike others does not seek to publicize its positions to every retail investor, is that held by Monness Crespi, in which very select hedge funds are invited. Below we summarize the stock picks from last night's dinner. We are not at all surprised to find FaceBook already making enemies.

MCH Technology Idea Dinner

1)    Netflix Inc. (NFLX) – Short
2)    Indira Sistemas (IDR SM) – Long
3)    China Unicom (762 HK) – Short
4)    TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL) – Long
5)    Western Digital Corp. (WDC) – Long
6)    Facebook Inc. (FB) – Short
7)    AAC Technologies Holdings Inc. (2018 HK) – Long
8)    Taiwan Seminconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) – Short
9)    Allscripts Healthcare Solutions (MDRX) – Long
10)   Google Commentary – Long
11)   Unisys Corp. (UIS) – Short
12)   Broadsoft Inc. (BSFT) – Long
13)   Mastec Inc. (MTZ) – Long

 

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Thu, 05/24/2012 - 09:05 | 2458446 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

FacePlant, bitchez

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 11:05 | 2458626 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

Facebook has clearly plateaued and is in decline among users. Their bounce rate, which is the estimated percentage of visits that have a single page view, has increased dramatically from 12% in Jan. 2011 to 26.4% currently. FB's Time on Site stats have gone from 32 minutes per day (12/2011) each user to 24 minutes per day. People are spending less time on FB. Their ad click-thru rate is half the industry average at a paltry 0.051% of active users. Google Trends also shows a flattening in the curve of searches for Facebook. http://www.google.com/trends/?q=facebook

 

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 10:10 | 2458672 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

wow.

6)    Facebook Inc. (FB) – Short

that lasted about as long as Zuck's honeymoon...

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 09:08 | 2458454 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

People pay these clowns for picks?! LOL

Where's Muddy Waters when you need him?

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 09:10 | 2458462 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Why do these guys keep shorting the chip manufacturers?  I see a huge boom for AMD and TSM making the chips for all the new computers that will be needed to fly drones, and process all the information that the governements are now collecting via the web and all the cameras around the globe.  Heck, they just put a stop light on one of our county roads, many miles from any other light, and there are cameras on the lights looking in every direction.   Really?  WTF, I wonder if I can get a weblink so I can watch the soybean grow (planted on two sides of this road).  Really?  This is an effective use of taxpayer dollars?

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 09:30 | 2458523 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Are you sure that you are not confusing those items for county-supplied targets? :)

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 09:31 | 2458528 trippy64
trippy64's picture

Those arent cameras, they are sensors. Instead of digging into the asphat to determine the arrival of a car, they use sensors now.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 10:56 | 2458844 Grinder74
Grinder74's picture

Don't you mean asphalt?  Asphat was Moochelle's high school nickname.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 09:41 | 2458549 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

At the same time, Western Digital is a long. 

Perhaps we are watching a tectonic shift from processing magic to storage and retiieval magic? Perhaps it's not chip power but net computing power that doubles. 

I have a terabyte drive. 3 years ago, it was obscenely priced. Now eveyone has movies and more movies and torrents and torrents of data.

More and more to store, less and less to process.

Interesting for sure.

ori

wisdom-for-warriors-7

 

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 10:33 | 2458760 Hunch Trader
Hunch Trader's picture

WD's 1 and 2 TB drives blow up a little too easy for a long.

 

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 09:46 | 2458572 fredquimby
fredquimby's picture

Isn't that what shotguns are for?

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 10:09 | 2458676 KandiRaverHipster
KandiRaverHipster's picture

i guess it's because no one wants to buy stock in a company that develops and manufactures the most advanced technology (read: CPUs and micro-architectures) that currently exists.  that and the stock price doesn't go up 354% over 2 years.  Ben Graham constantly spins in his grave at 9?/s

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 09:31 | 2458529 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

No mention of AAPL probably because they are playing AAPL poker with each other.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 09:44 | 2458566 Sutton
Sutton's picture

I'm sure these guys are already short FB.  No one goes to jail for financial crimes except for tawdry inside traders/perjurers.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 09:45 | 2458568 chrispycrunch
chrispycrunch's picture

I'll buy Facebook when it's $9.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 09:55 | 2458610 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

That should limit your loss considerably.

 

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 10:08 | 2458667 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

+1

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 10:36 | 2458767 Hunch Trader
Hunch Trader's picture

Why pay more than Bono. Facebook has no real earnings model. Only hardcore addicts pay for Zynga stuff etc. Most people never click on any ads, and the ads that do get clicked are brand-awareness ads, not conversions to income. That don't bring in the money.

 

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 10:14 | 2458692 ChickenTikka
ChickenTikka's picture

Why's UIS a short? 

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 11:22 | 2458942 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

It's amazing to me how anyone can think FB will beat companies like Google or Apple. Yet that is exactly what people think will happen when they're buying FB now. It should be obvious that this is impossible. FB is grossly overvalued, even at 20% of current valuation.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 12:21 | 2459174 gmak
gmak's picture

But WWWD?

 

(What would Whitney do?)

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 13:09 | 2459310 bahaar
bahaar's picture

Facebook is a fad.  I don't see the next generation (of human-beings) using Facebook.  Who'll want to belong to the same club as their parents?

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 13:10 | 2459317 bahaar
bahaar's picture

What is Google Commentary?

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