FadeBook

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Forget that S&P 500 e-mini futures plunged to four-month lows at 1290; or Treasury yields crashed back to their record lows; or Gold and Silver's surge today; or WTI's plummet to almost a $90 handle; or Citi joining Morgan Stanley in the red year-to-date; or credit markets continuing into the red for the year; or IG9 10Y soaring further to 160bps - widest in 6 months; or VIX closing above 25% for the first time in 5 months (and decompressing to Europe's pain). Today was all about one thing - the disaster that was/is/and will be Facebook - between late openings, overwhelmed systems, a dump to the syndicate bid and almost 600mm shares traded with the syndicate just soaking it all up at $38.00 early and into the close. Is it any wonder that every other social media stock plunged and how do they expect to ever get another internet IPO off again (at anything but a massive discount). No matter what correlation trick was tried to juice markets today - for the tenth day-in-a-row markets saw a BTFD turn into a STFR. Not a pretty end to the ugliest week in six month for the S&P 500 as it nears its 200DMA into the close.

Facebook...

and (h/t Dennis Dick) for the following visual of the HFT tractor beam in FB...

And the massive dominance of the syndicate bid (as who else could it have been) is clear in this chart of the volume profile for today...with Facebook's VWAP perfectly at $40 by the close...

 

Morgan Stanley = Zuckerpunched

 

 

And the S&P 500 e-mini  futures SNAFU continues...

 

Utilities, Energy, and Materials are all now down YTD with Industrials close...

 

Gold had quite a week...

and longer-term stocks are catching up to risk-assets (proxied here by CONTEXT)...

And corporate bonds (dark red below) are now starting to get hit by the selling in the indices...

A quick run down of the day's events from Bloomberg TV:

Finally, this is what happens, Larry, when due to lack of real demand, you sell the second largest IPO in history to 25% retail, which has absolutely no idea how to trade a $100+ billion company and preserve the illusion of the ponz.

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

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Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:22 | 2441722 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

Today was a great day. The MUPPETS told wall street....FU. The greedy pigs are squelling!

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:22 | 2441723 Thucydides
Thucydides's picture

Sit on my Facebook and tell me that you love me.....

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:24 | 2441729 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

best comment[sic] from yahoo!

 

Blue Horseshoe does not "like" Facebook.

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:24 | 2441732 Kastorsky
Kastorsky's picture

Bernank probably shit his pants just now, thinking "what if I announce QE3 and market treats it as IPO of FB?"

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:25 | 2441738 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Soggy firecracker. Little smoke then nothing.

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:31 | 2441774 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

that's not what Jim Cramer was saying would happen

..aren't we supposed to be at $70.00 by close?

 

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:57 | 2441883 walküre
walküre's picture

Cramer is going on a long vacation soon... He couldn't get the muppets to dance to his tune today.

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 17:17 | 2441940 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

I do not like Cramer but I thought he said do not buy at the open.

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:25 | 2441739 catalyst21
catalyst21's picture

I have a balanced mutual fund evenly spread across YouTube, Twitter, and Face Book.
It's called:  You Twit Face

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:26 | 2441741 kahunabear
kahunabear's picture

Just what Morgan Stanley needed. To be holding millions of an overpriced inut!!

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:26 | 2441744 Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

Always LOVE the non-trivial (aka, non-CNBS) analysis you guys do here.  The HFT stuff was a trip.  So very few know what's actually going on in the markets in which they foolishly invest.

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:27 | 2441749 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"Traders with bowler hats can make a cool million on a .06 move, as long as they are me with my tractor beam!"

http://www.flickr.com/photos/79008263@N05/7074511733/in/photostream/

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:28 | 2441753 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

One man's Facebook is another man's Match.com -- the best thing about FB is all the past women of yesteryear that surface and send you requests once they get divorced 

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:30 | 2441767 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Thats cool

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:34 | 2441786 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Divorce then FB requests...I know of a few cases where it happened in the reverse order.

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:38 | 2441754 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

While I'm not one to believe in metaphysics or mysticism (visions of the Virgin Mary on the side of a grain silo, etc.), the following can only be described as uncanny:

If you turn today's chart of FB upside down, you get an exact caricature of former Yahoo! CEO Terry Semel giving Zuckerberg the finger.   Honest ! 

(I guess the lost chance to buy the company in '06 for a cool $Billion had to hurt).

Here's a photo:

http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-01-03/tech/30319395_1_mark-zuck...

This simple line chart makes it more clear than Tyler's above:  http://www.google.com/finance?q=fb

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:29 | 2441764 JohnnyBriefcase
JohnnyBriefcase's picture

I'm finding this surprisingly easy to masturbate to.

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:58 | 2441890 pods
pods's picture

Quote of the week!

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:31 | 2441769 Zen Bernanke
Zen Bernanke's picture

the syndicate can buy whatever they need to support the price.   at the end of the day if they're holding 200 million shares in inventory that they coudln't offload to some idiot somewhere else, they'll simply cancel those shares and FB just gets less money.  no big deal....pun intended.

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:31 | 2441772 Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

554 million shares sold, only 2.2 BILLION more to sell:

http://www.google.com/finance?cid=296878244325128

No way in hell are they going to be able to hold the price above $38 when they could barely manage that today.

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:31 | 2441775 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

ZH - or willbanzai7 - T-shirt:

 

565 million shares traded all I got was a lousy 23 cents.

Please like me.

 

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:33 | 2441778 veyron
veyron's picture

Proof that retail did not participate in the IPO:

 

ETFC,IBKR,AMTD,SCHW,NDAQ,MS ALL DOWN TODAY

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:47 | 2441842 Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

Awwwww... And the HFT traders were counting on retail suckers...

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:33 | 2441782 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

I hope FB insiders that excercised options but didn't sell today are shitting their pants over the weekend.

I would enjoy seeing "DOT COM VER.2.0" capital gain hell.

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:48 | 2441845 Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

The idiots deserve everything they get just as they did in 2000.

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:38 | 2441790 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

What an overhyped POS. Well, I guess Zuckerberg rendered to Cezar today, and that's it! 

What a sloppy way to debut a new stock offer. I would have pulled the plug and walked away, net -0- at the end of the day for most. 

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:36 | 2441794 Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

 

Mazel tov

Facebook Inc. (FB), the social network operator whose shares began trading today, was sued for $15 billion in an amended complaint by subscribers who claim the company invaded their privacy by tracking their Internet use.

In the complaint filed yesterday in federal court in San Jose, California, the plaintiffs say Facebook improperly tracked users even after they logged out. Twenty-one cases making similar claims have been consolidated before the court.

The latest filing seeks to proceed on behalf of U.S. residents who subscribed to Facebook from May 2010 to September 2011.

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:45 | 2441835 Aztec Warrior
Aztec Warrior's picture

Facebook has been doing that for at least 4 years - Go to any website with their social plugin - even if you log out - you will start seeing which of your FB friends read that articale -

some big examples - WaPo, Huffington Post, the whole gawker family of websites.

Google tried the same with its failed venture Google buzz.

Whats funny that the bankers, lawyers and silicon valley "entrepreneurs" involved in this mess probably see each other every Sabbath in the same Synagogues in NYC and Bay Area

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 17:04 | 2441912 walküre
walküre's picture

There's a new twist to the story though.

FB promotes products to you that your friends supposedly "like" and when you ask your friend about it, they never heard of it.

It's completely off the charts grotesque and the worst kind of manipulation.

Say for example, we know each other very well and we both had FB accounts. Then one day you get a message stating "walküre likes Bud light" when you only remember seeing me drink Warsteiner. If you liked me enough, you might just find yourself buying Bud light when you come over next time and then all hell would break loose.

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 18:54 | 2442209 Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

I'm pretty sure that any and such particulars are promplty and extensively covered by the clusterfuck that is facebook's user agreement, which apparently holds you liable for your first-born upon subscription, in exchange for the right of having a profile where random people comment on high-contrast, high angle photos of yourself drinking latte while hugging a panda on a trike.

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 19:23 | 2442284 GoldenTool
GoldenTool's picture

Dude, trying to drink over here it's Friday.

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 17:17 | 2441944 PasteEater
Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:38 | 2441798 vegas
vegas's picture

Classic. the only thing missing from the clip is Walter telling Donny, "STFU Donny." And after this debacle today, how many MS internal meetings over the weekend to ask the all important question, "Boss, WTF do we do with all this shit at $38?"

"Oyyyyy."

 

http://vegasxau.blogspot.com

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:38 | 2441800 Cursive
Cursive's picture

I'm thousands of miles away from Wall Street, but I could smell the fear on this tape. I think the IB's went a bridge too far today.

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:39 | 2441804 FLUSA.com
FLUSA.com's picture

Where is my NIA mail telling me how much better an investment SYNC is then FB?

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:39 | 2441806 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Facebukkake

Sat, 05/19/2012 - 01:45 | 2442846 Sokhmate
Sokhmate's picture

redundant.

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:46 | 2441810 walküre
walküre's picture

WTF

AH print of $42 flashing for split seconds several times and back to the 38 handle.

Stick a fork in it.

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:41 | 2441814 TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

Apologies for cross-posting, but I'd really like to see a crapton of 'likes' for this:

 

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Shore-T-Faycebuk/290432514382589

 

Short Facebook needs your support!

 

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 18:37 | 2442165 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

That would require me to have an account, then login.

Nice idea though, best of luck.

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:56 | 2441816 battlestargalactica
battlestargalactica's picture

This is so obvious, so clearly goddamn manipulated from 11 AM EST through the closing bell. Unbelievable horse@hit.

Post bell, I'm listening to the big Fakebook buyer assclowns on Bloomberg using the same lame-ass, 20th century sale pitch used to pump the .com insanity for years... 'The user opportunity! Now, people can pay for things on their iPads! That's never happened before. Its that easy! All these people will buy while they socialize! Maybe not now, but in the future! It's only upside going forward!'

(eyeroll)

I remember sitting in a telecom start-up in the late 90s listening to some hotshot talking loudly about how he took home equity loan and emptied his saving account to go all-in for the etoys.com ipo. $78/share opening price. He was bragging about about his insider information on how it was all dialed-in, a total cash cow... Sometimes I wonder if he ended up taking his own life, or if he's one of those meth addicts that they scrape out of a dumpster on the 'COPs' tv show.

http://www.cnet.com/1990-11136_1-6278387-1.html

All I can say, if this is opening day 'pop', then good luck, suckers. You 'Fakebook' buyers can at least point to the singular moment in your life where it all went wrong, that one wrong step that changed everything and led to your utter destruction.

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 17:38 | 2442008 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

How soon until we can short this crap game?

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 17:51 | 2442041 toady
toady's picture

Lake City?

My Mom lives near there...

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:43 | 2441823 Catflappo
Catflappo's picture

So there was a miraculous bounce of $38.00 around 7 mins from the close.... just as the 38.00 bid was down to 25,000 lots, they were suddenly bid for 100,000 and it moved to 38.10 and then higher.   

So tell me, how come the bid wasn't buying any when they were freely available for ages between 38.00 and 38.10?

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:48 | 2441846 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

we told you not to take the red pill.

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:44 | 2441831 no life
no life's picture

Did anyone ask how many of the facebook users are actually fake/dummy accounts?

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 16:51 | 2441858 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Are you suggesting that all those pages created for people's cats aren't for real cats?  How dare you, sir?

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 17:00 | 2441895 fuu
fuu's picture

I think most mafia wars players created about 499 fake accounts each.

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 17:03 | 2441906 wonderatitall
wonderatitall's picture

i have 8. the cast is southpark characters and i have no idea what adds they run. i do it to run the solitare game.....boredom is what it is used for.....facebook is the worst run and managed "social" network but they do have libertarian sites i joined, all of us. that is until the dog eating racist hatemonger gets re selected by the mob

 

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 17:40 | 2442017 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

I have 82. I drank too much Red Bull one night and was bored. I had to do something.

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