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Faith, Hope, And Draghi

Tyler Durden's picture




 

What can we say? From the better than expected GDP this morning Gold and the USD (and Treasury yields) diverged from the QE hope trade - but stocks didn't. Then came the statement of the entirely sublime obvious from someone somewhere about Draghi's normal pre-meeting meetings and we were off to the races to test recent highs. Treasuries exploded higher in yield, Gold popped, USD weakened (as EUR popped), and stocks ripped. But...Treasuries reverted back to pre-Draghi-levels, EUR tumbled and the USD ended near the highs of the day, Gold gave back most of its spike gains and closed in the middle of its day's range as stocks just wouldn't give up the dream. For a 2% rally in S&P 500 e-mini futures, VIX fell only modestly by 0.9 vos to 16.7% - which is above last week's close (while stocks end almost 2% above last week's close). Amid the heaviest volume in over a month and the largest average trade size in over a week, ES closed at almost 3-month highs. It appears to us that unless Draghi and Bernanke - who now seem engrossed deep in the inter-continental thermonuclear currency war - both do their bit next week (which the market has now more than fully priced in given the dismal fundamentals) then this is becoming farcical but as Maria B said "a rally is a rally, right?" Ask the ZNGA and FB buyers of the rally on IPO day. Stocks ended the day notably decoupled from risk-assets amid Treasuries worst day in 9 months.

 

Gold has overtaken the Long-Bond year-to-date now (only the 4th close this year) as stocks just go about their business at 3-month highs...


 

The S&P 500 e-mini rallied strongly to its uptrendline but once we broke an intermediate trendline there was heavy block trading into the highs (h/t @eminiwatch) - does make us wonder exactly who was chasing this into that second top of the day...


 

10y Treasury yield soared (on a percentage basis) the most in over nine months...tracing back to their 50DMA... (and as an aside the spread between 30Y mortgages and 10Y TSYs is at a six-month tight)...

 

Equities and Treasuries recoupled as did Gold and the USD - though the disagreement was clear...

 

as Treasuries in general have retraced most of their gains from pre-EU-Summit...

 

as despite today's U-Turn in the EUR, the USD ends the week -1%...

 

I guess that is the price stability Draghi is looking for..but compared to capital structure (rates/vol/credit - left) and broad-risk-assets (right) we disconnected - especially in te last few hours of retest...

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

Bonus Chart: Spot The Odd Market Out... This chart shows inverted stocks (black) against VIX, implied correlation, and VIX futures... can you see which one has gone full retard?

 

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Fri, 07/27/2012 - 16:38 | 2657996 deejo
deejo's picture

:-/

considering that the market has priced in 100% + for QE3 . . . is it a safe assumption that we'll see some pullback next week, regardless of what the FED actually announces ?

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 16:40 | 2658020 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Every Monday has been a loser for the last 8 or 9 weeks, by triple digits if I am not mistaken. 

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 16:52 | 2658048 Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

Correction.  almost every Sunday night.  Long vix short dow / s&p. 

Long charting, long fuck you bernank, long gold.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 17:37 | 2658080 Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

We need to lynch (insert name) if he money bombs the market.  I mean how f'ing stupid can you be?  Launching a bomb like that at 13000 in the market.

Bombs like that should be launched once so as to save markets and prevent sudden hyperinflation.  Launching them, like the us does scuds, to wipe out bears?  is f'ing stupid.

That's like chasing flies with a sledge hammer...

 

I call bullshit, there is no qe, just an obedient market that will fall for fucking anything.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 20:19 | 2658351 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

There is a lot of money sitting and waiting for a good chance of a positive return. You have the money managers, funds, pensions and retail all looking for a ray of sunshine. So whenever it's cloudy and grey, you might want to expect sun instead of rain. All things being equal, the central banks will make it so.

It may be a while before the next opportunity shows up for a low risk short. Prices need to move higher.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 01:35 | 2658628 Nachdenken
Nachdenken's picture

Du du du a quick walk on the wild side.. til Tuesdays hangover.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 02:34 | 2658656 1000pips
1000pips's picture

Euro bottomed this week, engulfed Big time on the weekly-get ;long and strong...watch these Eurocrats teach the world a thing or two about media manipulation and currency war.  USD has to get weaker for US GDP to rise on exports-that will happen.  Obama and Ben, along with Merkel have already let it start...

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 03:20 | 2658672 French Frog
French Frog's picture

I was looking forward to see the 'Context' chart again and wondering by how much ES would be 'rich' again compared to their basket of risk assets .... it didn't disappoint although I expected more than 11-12 points. ES back below 1370 come Tuesday again anyway?

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 16:45 | 2658037 in4mayshun
in4mayshun's picture

A very pro-easing move next week could push the SPY towards 1400 but beyond that, they'll need some heavy artillery to push much past the 2008 highs. But who knows, anything is possible in this Alice-in-Wonderland market.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 16:54 | 2658056 Frastric
Frastric's picture

Relax the Dow may just sniff 15000, anything higher and Bernanke has lost control of the printing press...

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 20:24 | 2658356 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Imagine if the market cleared the 2007 highs. I think those technicals from Citi alluded to an expanding triangle terminating as late as October.

Would take a lot of gas to get us there, but central banks could do it. They have many times in the past.

Keep your mind open. As sick as the underbelly of the world ecomomy is, this sucker may push a lot higher.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 16:53 | 2658051 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

Some clown will DVR Draghi's comments and replay them Monday morning for another 200 point pop, just watch.

 

Seriously, how many times can they price in something?  Push for 200% of NEW QE?

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 20:48 | 2658387 IMA5U
IMA5U's picture

then get long

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 23:16 | 2658523 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

.... Is it safe?   LOL! 

Yeah its safe alright, if you are part of the machine. ..... otherwise put on some clean underwear before you are squashed like a bug.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 21:48 | 2659755 ACP
ACP's picture

Faith, Hope and Draghi? Sounds like a threesome.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 16:34 | 2657999 gjp
gjp's picture

Every time I think the depravity and insanity has reached a maximum, I am surprised again.  What's the saying about fool me once, fool me twice?  I just can't believe how casually the PTB are willing to throw our currency system to the dogs.  Dogs is what we'll all be when this is done.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 16:34 | 2658003 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

King dollar!!!

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 17:19 | 2658091 crkennedymd
crkennedymd's picture

Dogs are what we'll be eating. I guess then I'll have one thing in common with our Dear Leader

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 14:40 | 2659215 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

......."I just can't believe how casually the PTB are willing to throw our currency system to the dogs".

And how those conformist, fascist, socialist lap-dogging POS 'brothers & sisters' we call fellow Americans aide and abet them! You know who you are are you know your day is coming...

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 16:34 | 2658000 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

And while Tyler focuses on Draghi's words, Ben uses the PWG to fractionally reserve dollars and buy equity.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 16:35 | 2658005 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

What a shitshow today was.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 16:36 | 2658008 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

<--Monday

<--Tuesday

[next "risk0ff" starts?]

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 16:41 | 2658025 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

FOMC meeting Wed.   just sayin'

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 16:46 | 2658040 fuu
Fri, 07/27/2012 - 17:24 | 2658096 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

and wednesday has stormy eyes. [/mangled lyrics]

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 17:38 | 2658119 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

 "Hey Wednesday Tuesday... What are u doing Saturday"?

~Fred Flintstone

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 18:19 | 2658197 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

we should ask robo_T? 

did you see where tyler put up earlier that QE3 was something like 110% priced in? 

send tyler some socialist money for his bar tabs, BiCheZ! 

 

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 21:32 | 2658443 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

>>TUESDAY's on the phone to me. L0L!!!

 

I see what you did there!

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 22:58 | 2658519 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

You only give me your funny paper...

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 16:58 | 2658063 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

The way I see it, Monday is Hilsenrath's turn. Draghi pulled a fast one and hit the ball twice, so now it's up to Jon or Ben to return volley.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 19:20 | 2658283 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Sunday gap down. The ACB's> ( Asian Central Banks), ( will love buying dollars) after this $ selloff.  What's up Slewie?

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 20:56 | 2658396 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

hey, Y/C!

 

 

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 21:09 | 2658421 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Just checking in Slewie.  I'm like the rest of us. " Milk Shake" looking for a roller coaster!

  Nice to hear from you.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 16:39 | 2658017 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

Welcome my son, welcome to the Machine ...

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 16:41 | 2658021 HD
HD's picture

Rick Santelli said on closing bell "I'd never short stocks" it was the cherry on top a shit sundae for me...

Maybe later today Cramer can come by my house and repeatedly kick me in the balls while Pisani chants in the background "decoupled...decoupled...decoupled".

 

 

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 19:56 | 2658321 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Who's da Man?  I would friend ya on Faceplant'e'   , HD .  Unfortunately, (fortunately) Neither of us has a profile.

  Gotta love Santelli!

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 22:31 | 2658502 HD
HD's picture

How's life treating you Yen?

 Now don't get me wrong - I'll set up a Facebook profile as soon as FB hits its inevitable price target...in the pink sheets.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 23:03 | 2658520 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Now now...$5-6 would be more than fair for a company with the infrastructure to keep millions of rabid teenagers posting pictures of things they shouldn't without going tango unifom (*cough* Twitter *cough* ) and they've got some very slick ajax caching tech and a huge datamine (just think of the carefully selected inbox content they could be sitting on to bury electoral hopefuls with for a moment).

And who can pass up the opportunity to provide status updates and check-ins for "Satan's Penis"?

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 01:48 | 2658634 HD
HD's picture

You're right - $5 a share is more than fair just for the endless mountain of "free" content FB users provide to Zuckerberg.

"You hereby grant Facebook an irrevocable, perpetual, non-exclusive, transferable, fully paid, worldwide license (with the right to sublicense) to (a) use, copy, publish, stream, store, retain, publicly perform or display, transmit, scan, reformat, modify, edit, frame, translate, excerpt, adapt, create derivative works and distribute (through multiple tiers), any User Content you (i) Post on or in connection with the Facebook Service..."

One wonders how many billions of dollars DHS, CIA, FBI and the NSA spend to monitor prepubescent Justin Beiber fans and soccer moms discussing who should be cast in the "Shades of Grey" movie.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 02:11 | 2658641 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Placating me? I'm looking to form a team I doubt you are up to this one. That " Bond"  cassino is open!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  i LOVE YA GUYS.   Money doesn't sleep! I got 8 hours of sleep over 5 working days!

 

                        I like being aware.

i/c SHIT IN WAYS that would confound you!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                     [  hasta mania]

  GMadScientist      nice work!

 

 

 

 

 

 

  Helicopter port is slightly South of Avalon. 

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 16:41 | 2658027 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

well no maria you hopeless hosebag.. its your job as a journalist to point out the obvious maniuplation. Dont lead us to believe that fundamentals matter. Nobody needs CNBC in a computer game. Its like the old johnny carson Carnac act. You have the answer in the envelope.  .what does ben want the finsish to print at .. you have to guess whats in the envelope. Thats all.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 16:56 | 2658060 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

lol - she's about as much of a "journalist" as barney fwank is a public servant... those two deserve each other's company more often

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 17:04 | 2658074 HD
HD's picture

If Barney is okay with Maria's penis being larger than his...than yes, they could probably be fast friends.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 16:42 | 2658029 wagthetails
wagthetails's picture

And this is why timing the market is impossible.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 17:39 | 2658121 Lazlo Toth
Lazlo Toth's picture

Monday down. Tuesday up. Wednesday up and down. Thursday........ Ooohhh.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 17:50 | 2658138 GernB
GernB's picture

A few days ago I bought ESU12 around 1330 with a stop at 1319, on the fact there's been heavy resistance above that level. I just sold at 1383, because there's likely to be a pullback, even if it pushes higher.

You can't time markets based on news. it won't work. By the time you hear the news it's too late, and you have to really know what people in the market think because you have to trade on what the news actually was relative to what was expected.

However, there are clearly forces at work in the markets that cause it to sometimes behave in predictable ways. If it has gone up when it fell to the 1320s twice in a row, it's not a terrible bet that it might happen again, that whoever is buying at that level will fend off the decline by snatching up shares at what they think is a bargain. When they buy up enough there are no more sellers and the price goes back up. The push to 1380s was beyond the recent trend. So it just pushed through a resistance level. Whoever was selling at those levels got tapped out. If I were more of a gambler I would bet it is going a bit higher from here based on that fact alone. I'm not that brave, so I just decided to take the money and run.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 00:03 | 2658578 fourchan
fourchan's picture

id rather put my life savings on red.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 16:43 | 2658030 kaa1016
kaa1016's picture

This is the same exact thing that happened this time last year almost to the tee. I think we will se at least, a 10% pullback in the S&P over 2 week period post Bernanke/Draghi. There is no way they can deliver on the lofty expectations.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 16:46 | 2658039 deejo
deejo's picture

yeh... it seems like a no brainer.. but i'm 0 for 4 on attempts at timing uvxy or vxx for short plays correctly.  perhaps I should just stare at my hard assets and leave it at that. euphemism not intended.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 01:02 | 2658616 indianajohns04
indianajohns04's picture

haha i told myself no more uvxy after doubling down three times to break even but i caved and bought 4,200 after hours today. One of these times it will work!

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 16:47 | 2658043 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

""a rally is a rally, right?"

Yep... so was summer of '29.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 16:48 | 2658046 SqueekyFromm
SqueekyFromm's picture

I just did an Irish Poem on Draghi on another thread here, but it fits better into this post, sooo please excuse the duplication:

 

There once was a fellow named "Draghi"

Who jumped when Frau Merkel said "froggie."

He went up so high,

Way up in the sky,

That the rarefied air made him groggy.

 

Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 16:53 | 2658054 deejo
deejo's picture

nice :-)

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 16:54 | 2658058 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

This market is more staged and rigged then the WWE!!!  

Did anyone actually think that they would hold the 30th Olympic Games in the heart of Western Europe, and let the whole system flush down the toliet???

Its all show, its all manipulated, and this is the biggest couple weeks of pomp and circumstance that Europe will enjoy for decades to come, they sure as hell weren't going to have any currency crisis, rain on their parade!!

I mean all the central bankers, politicians, and corporate scum will be converging on London for a little sport, $100,000 a plate charity dinners, and god knows what else, this was so predictable, its not even fun anymore!!

 

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 18:00 | 2658154 Lazlo Toth
Lazlo Toth's picture

WWE IS RIGGED???!!!???

First markets where people make verbal sacrifices to appease SkyNet and now WWE is rigged??????

 

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 16:54 | 2658059 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

and we have the nerve to knock the Chinese that everything is a fraud,fake cover up.. Yep and you wonder why people hate us. Hypocrite nation we are.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 17:02 | 2658069 deejo
deejo's picture

"China still coo ! You pay latah, LATAH ! "

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 17:02 | 2658070 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

ZH, you are f'cking unbelievable, nothing goes in my house anymore before checking ZH if it's true.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 17:07 | 2658077 deejo
deejo's picture

agreed.

a" friend" sent me a link to that noah smith post a few weeks ago and I felt as if my own child was being picked on.  livid I was.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 17:15 | 2658090 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Charts are nice but if that's a German bond bubble as we discussed here just one week ago "where do I go for safety?" gold...of course...but folks need income...and if you don't mind an equity kicker that's stocks. Banks had a VERY good week. Methinks Dodd/Frank is officially dead. Silly season is the name of the game...and this is President "Win the War" Roosevelt who's in charge.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 17:27 | 2658098 Big Ben
Big Ben's picture

Draghi may be corrupt, but you must admit that he is also very clever. The higher the markets are allowed to rise on the basis of his uncontested pronouncements, the more they will fall when Frau Merkel returns from vacation and 'resets expectations'. And then she will get the blame for crashing the markets.

While the cat's away, the rats will play. Free cheese, anyone?

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 17:52 | 2658142 miker
miker's picture

Do not underestimate the resolve of the Central Banks when things get bad.  Even though all choices are bad, they will always pick the best of the worst.  Letting the European economy and American, Chinese, etc. collapse is the worse choice.  Inflating away bad debts in a gradual process is the best they can do. 

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 18:13 | 2658181 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Draghi, what an appropriate last name. Draghing along until the last minute , and throwing the markets into manic chaos!

 I'm sure Draghi will be spending a lot of time at the synchronized swimming events in London over the weekend. He needs all the help he can get, to keep his HOPIUM den filled next week!

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 18:29 | 2658205 ekm
ekm's picture

Yen Cross

Good afternoon.

 

I think it is well calculated.

- Lure the Traders in to Civil War

- Crash the market

- Blame the greedy traders for the crash.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 19:14 | 2658273 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 It's hard to have a civil war , when the markets are so skewed to one side! It's great to hear from you "ekm". I hope the markets didn't tear your face off this week. I went flat late Tues night, after Nowotny dropped the first tape bomb, and blew up my aud/jpy short!

  Although I'm dabbling a bit with eur/aud , with tight trailing stops. That vacuous eur/usd plunge earlier, was nasty.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 18:27 | 2658202 ekm
ekm's picture

It used to be that Traders would lure Retail Investors as Suckers, but the House were the central banks. The Professional Traders were just renting the place.

Since all retail have been already robbed of their money, the House found another way to control the situation: Lure Professional Traders as Suckers and have them fight against each other.

 

Hence, I hereby declare: WE HAVE CIVIL WAR IN THE STOCK MARKET - UNTIL LAST MEN STANDING- BERNANKE AND DRAGHI

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 18:40 | 2658223 Chartist
Chartist's picture

I am not at all surprised by this move...I was in Bob Janjuah's camp that one more ramp was coming....Too many bears I guess....I don't see the SPX breaking above 1410....I sold my SSO position and swapped into SDS midday Friday....A bit early I suppose.....I'm staying short now into Q1, 2013.....SPX 1050 here we come....I am not as bearish as Janjuah, I don't see SPX 800, ever.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 21:48 | 2658457 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

I think this rally fits the 'blow-off top' definition. 

 

Draghi can huff and puff, and blow our house down.  But there's only one problem:  The market IS bigger than any one man.  That, and the tendency for black swans to show up uninvited, assures us that the day of reckoning WILL come, Draghi's hot air or any others', for that matter, notwithstanding.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 18:53 | 2658237 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Banksters have to put all their stolen money somewhere. Mayswell put it in the market and vaporize that crap.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 19:44 | 2658307 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 They put it into their " Bunga Bunga" parties, and call it job creation.  Then they put all the participants , on a defined health plan, so as to slow the spread of Eurosis!       ) symptoms ; Jawboning, general denial, sterilized] currency hallucinations, .Ect...

 If infected drench head in cold "toilet water" , to slow spread of pathogen.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 20:42 | 2658379 IMA5U
IMA5U's picture

play the cards on the table

 

and not what you thnk the market should be

 

we have the olympics. a perfect backdrop for the european central planners to give the appearnce they are getting their act together on a world stage

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 21:02 | 2658406 Father Lucifer
Father Lucifer's picture

Even with all the excitement yesterday and today, in the big picture the technical's suck. It's gonna take a massive amount of printing to push this market to new highs and if they do that I condemn them all to burn in HELL.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYSI&p=D&yr=6&mn=0&dy=0&id=p76567860789&a=243663365

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 00:33 | 2658603 gridlocked
gridlocked's picture

Ignore the bad data - he will act.

 

House of cards.

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 01:33 | 2658625 Nachdenken
Nachdenken's picture

Keep on pumping. 

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 04:34 | 2658690 smart girl
smart girl's picture

Coincidentally, the Troika was visiting Greece on Thursday/Friday. They have temporarily granted some recapitalization of the private banks - but nothing further?. Could they be pushing a "a fiscal union, a financial union, an economic union and a political union" now? It's worth reading Mr. Draghi's actual speech. http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2012/html/sp120726.en.html

 

Sat, 07/28/2012 - 04:48 | 2658693 genr8n
genr8n's picture

It may not look like it but this is it ... this is the last stop on the bus route to complete disintegration ... Spain asks for E300 in bailout and the reality hits Draghi in the face. Discuss the bailout and we're all screwed...because Italy will have to follow as willl France once Italy and Spain go. Buying bonds makes sense politically in a limited way as the alternative is far worse. So the real question is whether the the market will sense that the bond purchases are actually the last death roll before complete disaster. 

Sun, 07/29/2012 - 10:21 | 2660135 Peterey
Peterey's picture

Have you also had the impression that this week rant by mr Draghi (Enter the Draghi, ... the first part of the video on mr Draghi is fun), was a bit over-done and emotional and resembled the rant by former Greek finance minister Giorgos Papakonstantinou warning short sellers that they will be crushed? When I saw mr. Draghi, I thought that, if Central Bank policy communication becomes open reprimand, this might signal a weakness and not a strength on their part. Let me know what you think...

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