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As Falls Sarkozy, So Falls Europe: The Full Story Behind The Upcoming French Election

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Just a week ago we brought readers' attention to the fact that Francois Hollande, the Socialist Party candidate who is leading most opinion polls in the French presidential election, was extending his lead; well the lead is growing, to now 58-42 in the second round. In a must-read discussion this evening, George Magnus of UBS points to the significance of the French elections and how Hollande's victory could unleash 'a new wave of instability and uncertainty, and that the relative calm or optimism in financials markets since the turn of the year would prove short-lived'. Specifically Magnus highlights how the politics of Europe could well trump the liquidity of the ECB as the main determinant of the Euro Area's prospects. While not playing down the role of the initial (and forthcoming second) LTRO, the UBS senior economic adviser has grave concerns of the much bigger and less tangible issues of sovereignty and national self-determination that will not only impact Greece (very shortly) but also Germany, France, and the Euro-zone itself. The French election could be a catalyst for Franco-German (Merkande? Hollel?) divisions which 'would not sit comfortably inside the ECB or in the minds and actions of investors' and is evidently an unpriced and under-appreciated risk in global markets currently.

 

Enter Francois Hollande, Stage Left

George Magnus, UBS

The French Socialist Party candidate for the presidency has recently nailed his colours unequivocally to the mast, with a bellicose approach to the cult of finance and financial firms, a promise to promote state-funded industrial policies and employment growth, including an additional 60,000 teaching jobs and 150,000 subsidised jobs for the young, and a proposal to reverse the recently agreed rise in the retirement age from 60 to 62 years. He intends to continue the programme of budget deficit reduction, but wants to boost state spending by EUR20 billion by 2017, though within the context of largely tax-related measures on banks, higher incomes and wealth.

 

The presidential contest is focused on both sensitive social issues and France's sense of economic and political vulnerability in a globalised world. This year, for example, China will displace France as Germany's biggest trade partner, while the latter has roughly 5 times as many firms doing business in China. But in many ways, the election is almost like a plebiscite on France's role and future in Europe.

 

President Sarkozy represents continuity. Francois Hollande wants to renegotiate the current European fiscal compact that was hatched in Brussels in December. At an economic level, he wants more emphasis on economic growth and employment goals, an integrated European energy policy, a bigger agricultural budget, and measures to counter unfair trade competition. But at a political level, his support for more activist ECB monetary and financial policies, the introduction of joint and severally issued E-bonds, and a well-resourced bail-out fund contrasts sharply with the stated position and constraints expressed by Germany, and to which Sarkozy has lent his imprimatur.

 

If he wins and intends to press his strongly held campaign opinions and intentions, a new rift could open up between France and Germany over how to manage the sovereign debt crisis and in the medium-term, to reshape Europe. Like other Eurozone countries, France feels pressured by the rising power of its large neighbour to the east. After the December Heads of State summit in Brussels, Hollande, and the overtly anti-Eurozone Front National leader, Marine Le Pen, both accused the President of betraying French sovereignty and democracy. If Hollande, as leader of the Eurozone's second economy, were to try and stand up to the German government, he would not only feel he had a popular mandate to do so, but doubtless act as a lightning rod for a wave of sympathy and Euro-angst from other Eurozone countries, such as Italy, which are becoming increasingly worried about the character and consequences of the current German-dominated approach to the Eurosystem crisis.

 

Italy, in fact, has made a remarkable come-back since Mario Monti took over as leader, pending national elections in April 2013. He was won the trust of Angela Merkel, and the admiration of Europe's political elite. While Italy's economy may be in poor shape, the country has regained respect and seriousness. So much so, that Monti's clever statement at his meeting with the German leader, reported in the Financial Times (16th January), was poignant. After acknowledging Germany's example of fiscal discipline, he said, presumably referring to Italy's recent initiatives to follow suit, maybe others too:

 

'If this strong movement towards discipline and stability is not recognised as taking place, and a certain approach to financial aspects does not gradually evolve, then there will be a powerful backlash in the countries which are being submitted to a huge effort of discipline.'

 

This is surely a polite way of saying something to the effect of 'Thank you for your trust. I'm trying to do my best but if you don't help and change your behaviour too - cue another reference to symmetric adjustment - then promising my people perpetual austerity will backfire spectacularly at home, and probably on you too'.

 

Mario Monti is a serious and talented operator. But having France on board would make a big difference. And then what?

 

The key point is that any sort of rift between France and Germany, or inconclusive negotiations or weakening of resolve on the current fiscal compact in general, would immediately go down like a lead balloon at the ECB, which would doubtless feel more constrained. Beyond, the central issue would be the reaction and behaviour of Germany, and Angela Merkel's government in the face of a French agenda, key components of which would be politically difficult and resisted. German national elections are, after all, not that far away, in the autumn of 2013. Would Germany accommodate France and cross more red lines, accepting an implicit demand for higher inflation as part of balanced economic adjustment, and giving in on matters of fundamental political and constitutional significance to the Federal Republic? Or would it dig in its heels, deeming French demands to be an unacceptable intrusion into its own sovereignty and democratic processes?

 

There is much at stake here. For financial markets, the French elections are one of Donald Rumsfeld's known unknowns. Sarkozy could yet win, sustaining the leadership status quo, but not really clearing up any of the current imponderable or impossible challenges to the future of the Eurozone. But if Hollande wins, the difficult progress towards European fiscal integration, including the building of firewalls, could become mired in new arguments, or stall. This would have important consequences for Europe, and not least for the newly pro-active ECB, which would have reason to doubt that politicians were fulfilling their pledge to create permanent fiscal discipline.

 

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Tue, 02/07/2012 - 03:12 | 2133148 ACP
ACP's picture

Comedy, bitchez!

(as opposed to the Greek trajedy)

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 03:23 | 2133161 HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

Euro green tonight.. gold bidding.. where is my baguet http://hedge.ly/xM7FcP

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 03:34 | 2133172 Michael
Michael's picture

4:52? Israel has hundreds of nuclear missiles? WTF?

Ron Paul On Fox's Off The Record Talking Foreign Policy 02/06/12

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrUavLPgLqY&feature=player_embedded

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 04:50 | 2133230 French Frog
French Frog's picture

Does anyone else think that Mr Hollande is about to suffer the same fate as DSK (Dominic Strauss Kahn, former head of the IMF) and find himself hunted out of office (even before he got there)?

If memory serves me right, DSK was 'removed' when he was about to get too 'vocal' about the IMF's + the Fed's roles in helping Greece/Euro?

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 05:01 | 2133238 expert urls
expert urls's picture

I am a tutorial on Vietnam flights. I better wait for the next reaction of  Mr Hollande. The end result will be clear.

....................................................................
Response from the instructor on Vietnam flights

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 07:22 | 2133336 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

an interesting twist. 

 

A clear contributory factor to  EU unwillingness to act on Greece in 2009 was Sarkozy's unwillingness to give DSK credibility at  home for being a saviour for Europe - I heard that from the UK chancellor at the time who made it clear that ecofin had put French domestic concerns ahead of the growing evidence that Greece needed a bailout. 

one might speculate on DSK's demise and replacement by Ms Lagarde.... who knows?

what is clear is that the EU is and will always remain a platform for resolving national political agendas in a cartel like manner as the Europen alternative, as Ms Merkel pointed out, has been conflict. 

All the major wars of the world for the last 2000 years originate within Europe, almost all having as a significant ingredient, domestic political concerns in one state being given support on the european stage to the clear detriment of Europe as a whole.

.. So Hollande, French elections, if a source of instability, could be a problem that some might seek to solve the DSK way..... shurely, not Ed??????

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 06:12 | 2133294 Colonial Intent
Colonial Intent's picture

Is the above post sarc?

Wikipedia isn't a source, its an opinion.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 08:21 | 2133383 n2dark
n2dark's picture

No, not this one.
A few entries are indeed nothing more than mere opinions, some are a little more than that, but most are a quite reliable source of encyclopedic reference. In this case it's a collection of information from almost 200 sources, which elevates it quite a bit above the 'opinion' level.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 04:14 | 2133211 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Yes they have. 400.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 04:16 | 2133214 The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

Who knows how many 'Nukes' Israel has...More than 1...Seems like the good doctor hit it out of the park again though...

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 04:40 | 2133224 The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

Unsure and can't confirm...Are there US boots on the ground in Libya?...Seems the Libyans are not digging the Central bankers or their central planning...

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 04:43 | 2133225 The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

Double post

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 04:43 | 2133228 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

"......reason to doubt that politicians were fulfilling their pledge to create permanent fiscal discipline."

Politicians?  Fulfill?  Pledge?  Discipline?    Man, this is some LMAO stand-up comedy.    Does this writer work for SNL on the side by any chance?

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 05:55 | 2133284 Colonial Intent
Colonial Intent's picture

Lets see,

6-8 Boomer subs that holds at least 20 warheads so say 1:3 ratio and you have at least two subs playing hide and seek somewhere in the world.

Thats 80-150 inc spares, add some fixed location sites and they still number under 200.

 

Am i worried about religious fanatics in Iran getting nukes?

No more than i am about the religious fanatics in Israel having them.

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 05:10 | 2133246 Sharks with las...
Sharks with laser beams's picture

Shorting yen at these levels is a sure bet? http://www.armadamarkets.com/2012/02/weekly-market-update-2/

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 03:38 | 2133179 BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

ohoho:

Europe was a beautiful princess from Argos. Europe was born in Asia and was the sister of Cadmus, the founder of Thebes.

Europe was playing with her girlfriends in the fields when king of the gods Zeus passed by and noticed her. Amazed by her beauty, he took the shape of a white bull with golden horns to abduct the maid.

Europe noticed the bull among the herd and playfully mounted him; together, they traveled until Crete. Only when they arrived in Gortyn in Crete, Zeus revealed his true identity and Europe laid with Zeus under a platan which became evergreen.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 03:18 | 2133153 Forgiven
Forgiven's picture

Be French...Surrender bitchez!

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 03:31 | 2133165 francis_the_won...
francis_the_wonder_hamster's picture

"Quiche eating surrender monkeys".....I forgot the source of that quote (bonus points to anyone who remembers it so I don't have to google it).

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 04:16 | 2133215 Mike North
Mike North's picture

I'm not sure but I know they didn't add red and blue to their flag until 1946

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 05:08 | 2133244 Grimbert
Grimbert's picture

Groundskeeper Willie, and it's cheese, not quiche

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 06:07 | 2133269 Bossuet
Bossuet's picture

"Cheese-eating surrender monkeys"

Après toutes ces années, (la propagande éhontée et mensongère de vos dirigeants de l'époque, Bush et compagnie, en matière d'armes irakiennes est un sommet de désinformation ne serait-ce que par la manière dont vos médias se sont fait abuser) la France a montré à travers le discours de Dominique De Villepin qu'elle avait tout simplement raison. Qu'avez-vous gagné dans tous ces conflits ?

Quant à la référence de votre voisin à 1946 et sa considération sur la France capitularde, voilà qui témoigne d'un singulière myopie ne serait-ce que pour cela : 

1918 : "1 315 000 soldats français décomptés morts soit 27 % des 18-27 ans". Au fait, essayons d'imaginer le nombre de soldats français victimes du syndrome post-traumatique après 1918, ce devait être vertigineux et je ne parle pas des traces dans les mémoires collectives, le front se situait dans NOTRE pays et un peu en Belgique. Venez visiter les régions nord, nord-est de la France et vous y verrez d'innombrables cimetières militaires dont ceux de Vimy et de Romagne-sous-Montfaucon d'ailleurs.

Enfin, certains de nos fromages sont excellents. Je vous les recommande.

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 07:16 | 2133332 spankfish
spankfish's picture

+1 for making the coffee come through my nose  - "Cheese-eating surrender monkeys" ... had not heard that gem in a long time.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 07:31 | 2133341 nmewn
nmewn's picture

              For Sale

One Lebel rifle, never shot. Only dropped once.

Make offer.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 09:36 | 2133494 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Do they use DIEBOLD machines in France?

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 05:36 | 2133265 Narukami
Narukami's picture

what realy get on my nerves is that a lot of ppls keep taliking about ww2 and the french surrendering! most of you ( including me) were no way near to be born and we know of the war but the little from what  learn in school but if u want to go deeper you would understand the complexity of this event. it is true that the gouvernment at the time surrender. but you cannot forget "la resistance" and all the intelligence they provide to the allys; some of them made the ultimate sacrifice for this. so at the end you are insulting these ppls as well ( i will stop here cos i could talk about it all day ) so do yourself a favor go deeper in understanding the fact ; but stop insulting a whole nation for something that happend 70 yrs ago due to the mistack of a few old farts that should have never been in power at the time.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 07:43 | 2133355 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

The Resistance was largely Communist, it did not start until the Germans started conscripting forced labour to the Reich when the young men fled to the forests - they called themselves Maquis. Without France the Reich could not have fed itself and the trucks used in the Russian Invasion were Renault.

As for the "old farts" Petain was a national hero having led resistance at Verdun in 1916. The "Free French" in London were not trusted, their codes were weak and their security hopeless. The ONLY Resistance Movement that was truly effective and where Collaboration was almost non-existent was Poland and Armiya Krajowa

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 12:34 | 2134097 Narukami
Narukami's picture

once again an other person that state fact without deeper understanding, let me explain , the fact that the resistance was " largely communist " is irelevant ,in time of war and martial law the party you belong is meaninless...second they "called themselves maquis" ( when i finish laugh i'll reply....) maquis resistance was created in the south of france since by definition the Maquis is a large area covered in think bush, more likely to grow is hot and dry places... and also the Maquis resistance is still actual for corsica where the freedom fighter go and hide, as for the "old farts " yes it is true that they was hero of the WWI but thay had the idea of the ligne maginot which was a great defence if only they did not predicted the the german army would simply go around it which a five yrs old could have done....also the military tactics they was applying was still dated from WWI and in some secret document find after war, one of the french "hero" plan to use horses against tanks ... for the free french in london the message they was giving was of the most importance they use to coordinate most of the resistance activity throughout france but also and for most it was a message of hope for the familly traped in the war , and also england provide shelter for the future french and polish gourvnment once the war was over. now my favorit part poland and the armiya krajowa where to start :D . it was created in ..... yes france ! its was created on the 27 of septembre 1939 with a pact between french and polish that they would unit in case of german agression which they did the best both side could. so please take a book and read dont just say what u saw on t.v.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 07:56 | 2133368 Treason Season
Treason Season's picture

The knee jerks anti-French tirades spouted by Yankee monkee is a result of British propaganda.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 03:20 | 2133158 non_anon
non_anon's picture

Waterloo 2

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 03:32 | 2133163 Coldfire
Coldfire's picture

Mario Monti is a serious and talented operator.

Mario Monti is a serious and talented unelected statist commissar.

There, fixed it.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 03:31 | 2133166 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

THE BROKEN ONE

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 03:33 | 2133171 Coldfire
Coldfire's picture

What's the word? Thunderbird! Sarko, complete with mangina.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 06:11 | 2133293 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Perfect timing, perfect graphic wild Bill. Thanks again

NFP

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 07:19 | 2133333 spankfish
spankfish's picture

Now that is Louvre quality work young man!

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 03:43 | 2133181 The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

Elba>>>St Helena

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 03:45 | 2133183 working class dog
working class dog's picture

Thou hippocrits all!  Ye were to not exceed debt to GDP ratios when ye signed on to the Eurozone aggreement. The first to violate was Germany, and all others followed. Now ye all will meet MOBIE DICK, as ye will all go down together.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 03:51 | 2133194 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Another US citizen who thinks he deserves every single cent he earns.

Quite a lot of feeble ifs.

Polls are not election votes in US citizenism.

Many others but the biggest is probably the explicit statement that a US citizen president is going to implement the program he ran as a candidate.

That is a big if.

Better to be clear, it is not like it was 1776 anymore, quite a lot of election processes by now in many US citizenism run contries:
no matter who is elected, there wont be that second course the author claims there'll be.

It will be highly similar to what is done now. Biggest change: the mug.

US citizens of A captured that reality with their "say hello to the new boss, same as the old boss"

To be compared by the way to the old saying "new lord, new laws" which existed before the rise of US citizenism.

The reason is simple: US citizenism is hinged around an institutional exercize of power while previously, the power leant toward personal exercize.

Funny that this claim of change comes nearly four years after the US citizen negro in the oval office made change
his gimmick.

Another proof US citizenism is all about submission. Only a consenting person who wants to believe the lie while knowing it is a lie can accept that drivel.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 09:27 | 2133299 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

Speaking of the Drivel....

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 04:01 | 2133202 n2dark
n2dark's picture

It's called the cycle of "hope & change". Every 4 years or so you'll get the chance to enjoy some silly optimism and live through the subsequent disappointment.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 04:06 | 2133205 arcos
arcos's picture

This article is not worth reading.

1. What Hollande or any other presidential candidate in the world is promising BEFORE election is just blabla

2. Hollande is a Socialist and 110% PRO EUROPEAN!

3. One year later, the German Socialdemocrats will take over and the French and Germans will continue to work together even better than today.

4. Where is this surge in the US$ by the way? If not now, when then?

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 05:25 | 2133254 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

I agree with most of what you say, but the Germans are genuinely worried about him.  I was at a dinner with a couple of guys form the CDU who put it like this - the Eurozone governments needs to agree on mulit-year plans and while they need to respect individual nation's electorate, there must be lines of communication.  They have tried talking to the Hollande camp, but are troubled by the lack of clarity of his policies and plans.

They feel sorry for Sarkozy who needs to do unpopular things for the financial security of France and the Eurozone and this is costing him votes, whereas Hollande can make vague promises which may win him the election but he'll either have to break them or risk chaos.

As for the German elections, it's not looking good for the CDU, despite the clear popularity of Merkel.  Funny thing is, from an election perspective, throwing Greece out of the Euro might be the strongest card she has to play...

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 06:00 | 2133286 agent default
agent default's picture

Lack of clarity in policies and plans means he is a yesman willing to sell out to the highest bidder.  It's a way of life for politicians.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 06:50 | 2133313 pine_marten
pine_marten's picture

Vague promises.  That kind of rings a bell.  He will turn out to be a shill for the bankers just like ours.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 07:43 | 2133356 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

@arcos: you missed the point

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 10:26 | 2133618 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

wake up, people! 

RE:  "ARCO_s"

>>> 1yr43weeks  3 extremely recent posts

TROLL ALERT,  BICHEZ!!! 

spread the word!

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 13:54 | 2134380 Christophe2
Christophe2's picture

@arcos "This article is not worth reading" -> Well said!

 

People in France use the term UMPS to refer to the UMP (Sarkozy's party) + PS (Parti Socialiste of Hollande), as everyone who is online realizes that left/right divide in France is just as fake as everywhere else.  In Europe like in the US, the illuminati machine of fabricated public opinion and actor-politicians is plain to see, so this 'analysis' that plays along with the patently false assertion that there is a difference in policy between these mainstream politicians is laughable.

=> ZH might as well tell us how the oligarchs are concerned about Mitt Romney taking over from Oblabla...

 

In France you now need to get 500 signatures from mayors in order to be able to present yourself as president - something so difficult to achieve that even Marine Le Pen (MLP) might not be able to present herself as a presidential candidate...

 

FWIW, I have my doubts about MLP, who seems like the gatekeeper equivalent to Ron Paul in the US.  Although she at least isn't clearly a freemason, she still has many of the same patterns (eg: a mix of extreme right tendencies, which are enough to make her an impossible candidate for 50% of the population, while being the ONLY mainstream politician to argue for abolishing the Fed / private central banking system).

=> More than anything, one wonders sometimes about the extent of the efforts each (RP + MLP) make in order to actually reach the presidency.  They work hard enough to capture the attention of voters who are against the private central banks, but somehow or other they seem to not be trying hard enough at key points in time...

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 04:12 | 2133209 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Fus Roh Dah!

Hollande is a more pro-banks, pro-deficit, pro-big government, pro-big EU than Sarkozy.

The only one who is against the EU is Lepen and she has no chances.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 04:44 | 2133226 Don Diego
Don Diego's picture

Hollande is faking an anti-establishment approach, but with him it will be business as usual. In the Western world there are no politicians, just actors playing their roles. The only anti-establishment large party is Le Pen's, you just have to watch the aggressivity and the constant interruptions of the journalists that Le Pen has to undergo in the rare occasions she is granted an interview.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 04:55 | 2133234 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

"Change" buys votes, look at the US where Obama cruised in on Goldman Cash and Independent Votes. Hollande will be more of the same but he might want to nationalise the Banks as Mitterand did to bring them under control. It is after all French Banks that are a disaster and it is French Government that is sucking the Bundesbank dry to fund them. European Union has an institution called The European Council in which all national political leades are like a College of Cardinals for The Project and their role is to be loyal to The Project above all else. Some people think it is the Central Committee of the European Union with the Commission as the Politburo and the Parliament as the Supreme Soviet of People's Deputies and with martin Schulz there it looks very much like Soviet times

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 04:21 | 2133217 ChrisFromMorningside
ChrisFromMorningside's picture

Watch out for Marine Le Pen. Under her father's regime, the FN was primarily anti-immigrant. Marine has toned down the anti-immigrant rhetoric and is waging a campaign against the financial sector and the central bankers and is gaining a lot of steam. It's possible she could beat Sarkozy for second place and end up in the runoff against Hollande. One way or another, this election definitely complicates the ongoing Euro deleveraging, because Sarkozy is not walking away with any kind of mandate.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 05:02 | 2133240 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Not gonna happen.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 04:52 | 2133231 Coffin Dodger
Coffin Dodger's picture

Not everyone sees it the way banks see it:

"On this subject, here a new example of Euro misinformation published by MarketWatch on 01/09/2012: the columnist, David Marsh, tries to give credit to the idea that the spring 2012 French presidential election will be more bad news for the Euro by explicitly stating that François Hollande is an Eurosceptic. As everyone knows in France, François Hollande is, on the contrary, a pro-European and fiercely pro-Euro which leaves only two options relating to MarketWatch/Marsh: either they don’t know what they are talking about, or they are deliberately lying. In both cases, that throws some light on the value of the opinions of the major US financial press on the Euro and its future" (Note 1)

http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-61-is-available-Global-Systemic-Crisis-201...

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 05:02 | 2133241 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Yep. Whoever says that Hollande is against the EU doesn't know squat about French politics.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 05:15 | 2133250 Coffin Dodger
Coffin Dodger's picture

ZH quote from above - "George Magnus of UBS points to the significance of the French elections and how Hollande's victory could unleash 'a new wave of instability and uncertainty, and that the relative calm or optimism in financials markets since the turn of the year would prove short-lived"

Oooo, that's really scary talk. Since when did ZH start believing the words of snake-oil salesmen that want to fuck you over?

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 05:34 | 2133264 Coffin Dodger
Coffin Dodger's picture

The more I look in to this piece of trash written by Magnus, the more obvious it becomes as a bank propoganda piece:

"President Sarkozy represents continuity" - yeah, suits you just fine, eh?

"Italy, in fact, has made a remarkable come-back since Mario Monti took over as leader" - ORLY?

"Mario Monti is a serious and talented operator." - being a GS alumni, yes, I suppose he would be, in your eyes,

"if Hollande wins, the difficult progress towards European fiscal integration, including the building of firewalls, could become mired in new arguments, or stall"

The banks are shit-scared of this Hollande guy winning.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 07:38 | 2133349 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

David Marsh isn't credible. He used to be FT Correspondent in Germany then fancied himself as a banker with Hawkspoint but he is simply a journalist/PR man at heart with no real analytical skills

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 04:53 | 2133232 westerman
westerman's picture

It is time to leave the financial dump behind us and build a new economic system. Globalism/communism/capitalism has failed. Nationalism is the ideology of the future. We need local economies that are owned and run by local people. We need a strictly regulated banking system and the gold standard. I would vote for Marine Le Pen.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 06:55 | 2133316 pine_marten
pine_marten's picture

But we might start fighting one another then.  Better to make everything fair for all and have peace.  (sarc)

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 04:58 | 2133236 Grimbert
Grimbert's picture

On TV a couple of weeks ago they had a clip of an old Pathe newsreel describing the then French prime-minister.

Something like '... and his fondness for frogs' legs makes him technically a cannibal.'

I'm trying to find the quote - it was on http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b019m5yy

 

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 05:01 | 2133237 Grimbert
Grimbert's picture

I think Sarkozy is more likely to be beaten into third by Marine Le Pen, with a 2nd round between her and Hollande. She promises a return to the Franc which is popular with many.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 06:42 | 2133310 whateverwhatever
whateverwhatever's picture

The most prominent (notorious?) far-rightist/fascist parties in eurozone countries have generally moved from anti-immigrant rhetoric to anti-euro/restore legacy currency rhetoric. The FN is little different than the PVV in the Netherlands. European fascism is all about pandering to the angst of the day, coherent economic plan be damned.

Marine Le Pen isn't going to get the silver, simply because the FN "polity" can't stick together on anything except anger.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 05:02 | 2133239 Benedict Farse
Benedict Farse's picture

What European leader has Greece by the short and curlies? Angela Merkin.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 05:29 | 2133258 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

You couldn't be more wrong. Greece holds the fate of Angela Merkel in its hands as the woman who destroyed Germany

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 07:49 | 2133361 falak pema
falak pema's picture

If I were Angela I would bunga bunga furiously before being labeled as the woman who... but then I didn't major in physics in University, just minored. Quantum financial debt infested lumps make for bad vibes on exuberant humpy rides. Red sails into the sunset!

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 08:47 | 2133418 Colonial Intent
Colonial Intent's picture

"no tyler, the gun is in my hand"

Mon, 02/13/2012 - 09:13 | 2153047 Benedict Farse
Benedict Farse's picture

Yeah fair enuf - Rewrite: Greece to rename Angela Merkel to Angela Merkin as they have her by the short and curlies. 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 05:31 | 2133261 GoldenGal
GoldenGal's picture

This may be the last chance to  Sell your gold!

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/last-chance-sell-gold-suttmeier-...

 

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 05:33 | 2133263 GoldenGal
GoldenGal's picture

And after you sell your gold there are some great deals on cruises.com to  for mediteranean cruises to Greece.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 05:38 | 2133267 Bohemian Clubber
Bohemian Clubber's picture

This is all batshit. The french elections have become as ridiculous as the Rep/Dem US bipartisanism with their UMP/PS political parties. Hell, both sides agree with this fucked up system and won't change nothing, certainly not banking rules... Beside socialists in France are particularly well known to be more pro Israelian than their counterpart...  just sayin...

Whoever wins it won't change crap, move on nothing to see here...

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 05:44 | 2133274 Bossuet
Bossuet's picture

Discours sur la crise de l’Union européenne d'Emmanuel Todd

 

Une autre référence à 1940 :

"L’explosion de l’euro va être la délégitimation de tous les connards qui l’ont fabriqué !", lance-t-il. Le principal bienfait de ce cataclysme sera, selon lui, un renouvellement des classes dirigeantes françaises, comme en 1940... Mais cette fois-ci, le coup de balai ne devrait pas nécessiter une guerre sanglante. L’avenir s’annonce donc radieux !"

http://www.agoravox.tv/actualites/europe/article/todd-l-explosion-de-l-e...

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 07:58 | 2133351 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Emmanuel Todd makes sense, so would you if you said it like Shakespeare, in his tongue if not with his brilliance.

Not that I don't understand Molière!

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 05:54 | 2133283 Bossuet
Bossuet's picture

Enfin, une fois encore, Hollande n'est pas socialiste. C'est un centre "droite/gauche" bon teint. La preuve en est que les recettes de Hollande sont assez timorées et proches de celles de la droite. Elles ne sortent pas du cadre. Libre à certains gogos de se laisser abuser par les pièges du langage. Au fait, Papandréou et Zapatéro étaient-ils socialistes ?

Un extrait d'un excellent texte de Paul Jorion : "Cet effet pervers, Sismondi (1773 – 1842) l’avait déjà dénoncé dans les années 1820, proposant que tout ouvrier remplacé par une machine bénéficie d’une rente indexée sur la richesse créée désormais par celle-ci. Une proposition ancienne qu’il faudra, un jour ou l’autre, réexaminer."

http://www.pauljorion.com/blog/

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 06:57 | 2137221 DrunkenMonkey
DrunkenMonkey's picture

Hollande promet de creer plus de fonctionnaires pendant que Sarkozy adopte le maske de Besancenot. Qui dit demagogue ?

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 06:47 | 2133306 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Of France and Pax Americana :

The upcoming election in France is portrayed as a major potential turning point in the current financial crisis of which the Euro currency battle is the nexus; just as Greece is the first visible domino in what could become a major bank run that none can control. UBS being a bank is obviously expressing the macro fallout of priority change in a major economy of Euro zone like france.

Lets just step back and understand what's what within the lens frame of the ZH construct; on which there seems to be consensus in this forum :

1° The current Banking crisis and its corollary the sovereign debt crisis is unsustainable if left in the hands of the banking cabal. Hollande is of this viewpoint, whence his strong words on "unbridled finance" being his, and his country's, main adversary. How do you change this situation that will bring down the real economies of Euro zone? His solution : kill the financial beast's control of real economy by strong government regulation, enforce joint and several financial control over ECB actions, through fiscal convergence, more budget discipline at national levels and issuing eurobonds. In this respect he is on the same page as MErkozy. Merkel has said in her own words that she made a mistake in 2009 by imposing a dictat of each country having to set up its own defenses to stave off the consequences of the sub prime meltdown. She now recognises that she underestimated the consequences of banking actions in all nations to stave off their own private meltdowns and the problems this has created in conjunction with sovereign knee jerks to kick start national growth through huge deficit spendings at each country level; all the while the private banking sector was already drowned in tsunami debt of its own through sub prime/derivative margin shenanigans. That is what created current scenario now in total risk on for Eurozone. The German sentiment now is its too late for Germany to leave the Eurozone. So she is buying at this late stage a structured and disciplined deleveraging of Eurozone sovereigns and banks, under the Euro umbrella. All collapse of Euro construct is VERBOTEN on her books. This is Merkozy sentiment 100%. There is no plan B on this issue. Just as there is no plan B in FED/O'bammy land other than to print and dump to infinity! We are there! 

2° ZH has recognised this uncontrolled debt mountain play and build up on both sides of the pond, accelerating since 2009 in the aftermath of meltdown and has concluded to the inevitability of deleveraging being necessary before any real economic growth can occur in first world economy. TPTB refuse to see this. Merkozy being on this page, all the while they have NO SOLUTION for Euro zone runaway, the current momentum is kicking the can via CB construct with ECB totally on board the FED strategy. 

How will Hollande change this? 

3° His take is based on his public statements and program that he will oblige Merkel to add to her current austerity program a Krugman type infrastructure spending construct across Eurozone to create Keynesian growth in economies; all the while ensuring that SELECTIVE deleveraging occurs. In this he is probably on the same page as O'bammy and Ben.

4° Will Merkel balk at this? Probably. She has no stomach for Krugman type Kenynesian strategy. NONE. If she does balk, Hollande will try and maneuver with Italy and Spain to create a Keynesian pole and fight for more Marshall plan type Euro investment. If the economic reality goes to more evident pain and BRIC strategies dry up the liquidity pump in first world, imposing further budget cuts and restraint, Hollande's Keynesian bravado will peter out into vain words. And Hollande will tell his people "Europe won't buy it sorry. We'll have to wait till election results in Germany in 2013!"

So nothing will get done on this front. The Bank controlled can kicking will continue and EUro zone will drown a little more into unsustainable debt.

Bottom line : Hollande's program will have NO EFFECT on Euro economic reality. Never in the course of human events has a French socialist government's policies resolved anything. And that is not going to change. I stand corrected, some say that Blum's Front Populaire in 1936, neglected french defensive spending and led to France's debacle; as all political effort was spent in creating social upgrading and Union inspired labour oriented legislation like one month's free paid holidays. Its debatable, if this hopium and euphoria fueled the Furhrer's resolution to go deep into Spain's civil war support and subsequent Anschluss. But it certainly did nothing to prevent it. So it created a bad precedent in Europe's convoluted history.

The reality is, this is TODAY, an international Oligarchy construct; it will stay so and it will live and die on its own momentum, controlled by crazy banks and surrogate governments, rich multinationals with off shore accounts and the happy few who screw bunga bunga crazy in the Caymans. So life goes on until the empire falls. 

Don't make Hollande into Gabriel Princip. He is not. Not that a new Gabriel Princip won't appear one day on world stage...but that is another Anonymous story today. Play on Sisyphus, pax americana rules and UBS blows bubbles of banksta spin, like it should. Its neck is on the line and will stay so whatever happens in France.

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 06:44 | 2133311 arcos
arcos's picture

...throwing out Greece from the Eurozone would be very bullish for Euro in MHO. Then the so called investors will turn to the US considering its huge debt problem.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 11:26 | 2133822 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

1yr 43 weeks = a recent few posts

he's put out opinions in 2 sentencez, here, about

  • greece
  • EU
  • what's bullish for EUR
  • so-called investors
  • US & its "huge debt problem,"

i would invite you to look at his other posts [clik on his name, etc] and see all the other hot-button topics this asswipe has breezily, handily addressesd,  in his eZ-breezy morning work-out, here...

...BiCheZ!

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 07:53 | 2133365 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

All the major wars of the world for the last 2000 years originate within Europe,

That makes the American Civil War, Chinese Civil War, Japanese War of Expansion, Mao's Great Leap Forward, Vietnam-Cambodia War, Korean War, USA-Vietnam War, China's Cultural Revolution, Nigeria-Biafra War, Ethiopian Civil War, Indonesia-East Timor, USSR-Afghan War, Somalia Civil War  absent from French History Textbooks.

Most of the major wars in Europe were caused by France which invaded the German states regularly over 400 years and only withdrew from Germany in 1930. All the wars England had to fight in Europe were to restrain France from threatening the island, and restraining the Dictator Napoleon when he crushed Britain's ally Prussia and proceeded to attack Russia.

The real problem in Europe is how to square French limitations as a Latin agricultural nation with its fear of a Saxon industrial nation and its pathological fear of Anglo-Saxons.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 09:05 | 2133437 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Made me laugh.

US citizens, all about submission.

France is called France, because it is the country of Franks, a German tribe. It tells about who invaded who.

All of those gangs are German,and Indo Europeans. They are not native Europeans.
Actually, the Anglo-Saxons launched a propaganda campaign to discredit native Europeans.

Pathological fear of Anglo-Saxons: well, here's a point.

Here are the places where Anglo-Saxons settled:

Australia

Brazil

England

North America

South Africa

All the places, under Saxon rule, had one social organization in common, to be found nowhere else.

So, if fear there is, there is nothing pathological to it.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 08:06 | 2133375 Byte Me
Byte Me's picture

TD
I think the chimeric proper noun you are searching for is MERKHOLE.
Unfortunately, very close to the one side/end - - but wait, isn't the (w)hole of Europe belong Germany now??

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 09:00 | 2133430 Police Commissi...
Police Commissioner Jacobs's picture

This article is just shocking. The banksters want their puppet re-elected and are predicting Armageddon if he loses. Just shocking.

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 09:01 | 2133432 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

Those pesky politicians getting in the way of UBS... Off with their heads! (Not banker heads too, OK?)

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 09:05 | 2133440 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

the bankers better be careful as i think the people WANT Armageddon

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 09:58 | 2133554 Zola
Zola's picture

Marine le Pen is for an inflationist economic policy (stimulus) and monetary policy (printing) , more state power and involvment through tariffs and protectionist policies. She does strike a good chord in the electorate but she is no Ron Paul or de Gaulle by far... Maybe one day historians in the US will realize what a great man RP was

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 10:28 | 2133624 tsuki
tsuki's picture

Sarkosy has a lot of negatives with the voters, and is looking for more.  His return to NATO is not setting well with many across partisan lines. 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 10:57 | 2133716 Nothing To See Here
Nothing To See Here's picture

Let's be serious. The odds that once elected, Hollande will stand up to the banksters and will not bend over to the EU power elite are as close to zero as it gets.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 11:50 | 2133938 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

"Hollande's victory could unleash 'a new wave of instability and uncertainty,..."

fuck you ubs.....who brought on the first waves of instability and uncertainty???? banksters and politicians maybe? i think so....

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 13:19 | 2134291 DrunkenMonkey
DrunkenMonkey's picture

Don't forget all the candidates are campaigning and will spout any old rubbish to get the voters on their side (Demagogue is a very frequently used word in France and the voters, while 'raleurs', are by no means dupes).

Hollande is the alternative to the much hated Sarkozy for most, but don't write off Marine since the working classes are very pissed off by what globalization has done to their work lives or lack of them, and she is far from the fool her father was.

Long story short then, Sarkozy will be re-elected as the least bad candidate which, ulitmately, he is.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 16:32 | 2135179 Zola
Zola's picture

MLP is NOT Ron Paul... thats the point of my previous post, if she was things would be VERY different... The philosophy of liberty is NOT what MLP is campaigning on. There is currently no RP equivalent in France.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 02:10 | 2347926 connda
connda's picture

Extend and pretend until the guillotines are pulled out of storage. 

What is good for the elite is bad for the masses. 

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