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The Farce Is (Again) Complete: Former Obama Budget Chief Orszag Says Official Economic Projections "Too Optimistic"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

And so the comedy circle is complete yet again after none other than former White House budget chief Peter Orszag throws cold water in the face of the White House, the Treasury and everyone else who has so far been so stupid to continue to deflect blame for America's horrendous fiscal situation purely on S&P and its "colossal $2 trillion mistake." Because if the guy who up until a year ago personally came up with the White House's voodoo numbers is telling you they are full of shit (the numbers, not the White House), perhaps it does put the administration's claim that it is all S&P excel spreadsheet skills that are at fault, in a slightly different light.

  • ORSZAG: OFFICIAL U.S. ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS 'TOO OPTIMISTIC'
  • PETER ORSZAG IS A FORMER WHITE HOUSE BUDGET CHIEF
  • CITIGROUP INC.'S PETER ORSZAG COMMENTS ON BLOOMBERG TELEVISION

In the meantime, as posted yesterday, enjoy the CBO's far, far better predictive track record.

 

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Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:09 | 1535186 zorba THE GREEK
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Gold about to get it's $1700 cherry popped.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:11 | 1535190 Hearst
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Asian markets down hard.  Gold & Silver advancing strong.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:17 | 1535234 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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Is anyone feeling sorry for the traders that have had their heads up their asses for the last few years?

No?

Me neither.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:53 | 1535451 Quixotic_Not
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Can't wait for munie markets to crater and finally wake-up the sleeping asshats!

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 00:26 | 1535642 ZackLo
ZackLo's picture

I LOVE IT MAN I'VE BEEN FIGHTING THESE BITCHEZ FOR 2 YEARS! no mercy! I will gladly take my money back and much more. Bull markets make weak boys rich....Bear markets make men from those who survive..

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 00:27 | 1535645 ZackLo
ZackLo's picture

I LOVE IT MAN I'VE BEEN FIGHTING THESE BITCHEZ FOR 2 YEARS! no mercy! I will gladly take my money back and much more. Bull markets make weak boys rich....Bear markets make men from those who survive..

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 01:53 | 1535998 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Spiked up to $1715+/Toz tonite!

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:10 | 1535187 gorillaonyourback
gorillaonyourback's picture

lol numbers full of shit? lmao

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:41 | 1535360 trav7777
trav7777's picture

eager to see whether Bama's popularity rating goes down faster than the SP500

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 01:34 | 1535941 CrashisOptimistic
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I'm not going to praise the GOP at all because they don't deserve it . . . but I will say the Democrat BS about "balanced approach" is cowardly hypocrisy.

THEY HAD FULL CONTROL WITH OVERWHELMING MAJORITY, INCLUDING FILIBUSTER PROOF FOR ABOUT 10 MONTHS AND NOT ONCE DID THEY PASS A LAW TO RAISE TAXES!!!

They had every chance to get their "balance".  They knew damn well it would get them voted out so they said no.  Now they want to hide behind a package the GOP votes for too in order to immunize themselves from tax raising campaign ads.

Cowardice!

They had EVERY OPPORTUNITY to raise taxes, and even end the demonized Bush Tax Cuts for Two F*cking Years and didn't raise a finger to do it.

Fuck Democrats.  Fuck the GOP a little less.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:10 | 1535192 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

LOL...

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:11 | 1535196 Forgiven
Forgiven's picture

Jeethner better be looking for another job.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:15 | 1535221 Taku
Taku's picture

Timmah!

He's playing with 6% and 7% yoy models right now.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:21 | 1535253 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Haha!  Definately the 7%. They need 7%!!!!!  Or else!  Of course, that is where gold comes in; it is used as the leverage to keep the ponzi going, with or without 7%.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:19 | 1535243 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

He already applied for head treasurer of the eurozone.

 

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:13 | 1535209 Little John
Little John's picture

I hope Andy Sorkin is taking notes on all the stuff goin' on. This is all gonna make a great sequel to TBTF.  There will be blood ...

 

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:18 | 1535237 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

 I can't believe they put him on morning squawk now. whose great idea was that?

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:23 | 1535265 PaperBugsBurn
PaperBugsBurn's picture

 

 

Phuk "Andy" bitch-ass Sorkin... off with his head too!

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:13 | 1535211 indygo55
indygo55's picture

Would it be too personally agrandizing to say "Ye-Hah,,,, Hi-Oh SILVER"?

 

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:14 | 1535214 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The no shit statement of the night goes to....

....the nerdy looking prep from Citi!

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:14 | 1535217 vegas
vegas's picture

Well, let me be the first one to say it: "the White House is full of shit". There, I feel better; now the financial world can end as we know it.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:20 | 1535250 alexwest
alexwest's picture

gold is 1700..

RP: IS GOLD THE MONEY ??
BB: ,, NO....... (in mongolid voice)
RP: WHY DO CENTRAL BANKS KEEP GOLD IN RESERVES ???
BB: I GUESS ITS TRADITION..

priceless... what a clueless idiot...

alx

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:49 | 1535419 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

He was lying (BB)...you knew that, right?

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:21 | 1535255 RockyRacoon
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ORSZAG is a pretty sharp guy.  I listened to him long before he became a mouthpiece for the Administration.   It was pretty obvious to those who knew his stance that it was no surprise that he didn't last long in DC.   He is a pretty straight shooter, so the cranked-up stuff he was obliged to spew drove him away.   I'll say that David Walker held in there a little longer before moving on.   It's a wonder Walker didn't meet with an "untimely demise".

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:26 | 1535281 PaperBugsBurn
PaperBugsBurn's picture

Orszchzsag is a banksters' man through and through..  fuck is wrong with ZHers tonight???  "Andy" Sorkin... puh-leeeze!

 

OFF WITH THEIR HEADS!!

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:29 | 1535284 karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

Pauly O'Neil layed this all on the table back in the early W years but nobody gave a shit we had evil to fight and all that.

Since then no honest peeps even get nominated as they can't get them past that den of whores and corrupt fucks AKA;THESENATE!

I would rather see a street sweeper raid of 100 dopeheads than what we elect to that "body".

 

 

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:51 | 1535434 Fed Supporter
Fed Supporter's picture

Abolish the 17th amendment.  That was sold to the sheep as more democracy.  The Senate is also known as the millionaires club.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:22 | 1535258 Dr Hackenbush
Dr Hackenbush's picture


the administrations coordinated war on oil speculators now in full gear

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:24 | 1535274 GlassHammer
GlassHammer's picture

"Everything is bad and its going to stay bad for a long time."

-Orszag 10/7/2011

 

Maybe in two more months.... 

 

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:37 | 1535299 Doyle Hargraves
Doyle Hargraves's picture

I watched that special until after Bill Gross was done talking. He seemed to have more insight then any of them, perhaps TD should put up what Bill had to say. Orszag still subscribes to, at least from this interview, the "balanced" approach to solving the issues at hand and getting rid of all post 2000 tax cuts and taking payroll tax down by 3 times the current break of 2% in effect by the debt brotha administration until employment rises. For that I think he is off track, just kill the MIC and WIC (welfare industrial complex) and problem solved overnight, he looks too much like Milhouse from the Simpsons to take that seriously.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:29 | 1535301 natty
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The Texans have taken a big step towards improving their 32nd-ranked pass defense, agreeing to terms on a five-year deal with free agent cornerback Johnathan Joseph, Sports TV’s Adam Schefter reports. Johnathan Joseph will wear Albert Haynesworth Patriots Jersey and play for Houston Texans next five seasons. Joseph’s contract is worth $48.5 million, with 23.5 million guaranteed, and a $12.5 million signing bonus, complimentary of John McClain from the Houston Chronicle. A 2006 first-round pick out of South Carolina, Joseph has 272 tackles and 14 interceptions during his 67-game career. Joseph has returned three of those interceptions for touchdowns. Joseph will likely be paired with 2010 first-round pick Kareem Jackson to form the Texans’ starting cornerback duo. The Texans are moving Glover Quin from cornerback to free safety. Despite having plenty of cap under the salary cap, the Bengals declined to use the franchise tag on Joseph in February, clearing his path to unrestricted free agency. You can log on our Online NFL Shop and select our best quality Albert Haynesworth Patriots Jersey and Cheap Donovan McNabb Vikings jersey if you are true fans of Houston Texans.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:30 | 1535303 kridkrid
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and english speaking reporting on the asian markets to watch?

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:35 | 1535323 Temporalist
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$1700 busted!  (according to Blmbrg tv)

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:51 | 1535441 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

Ready for exponential gold pricing?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IF24atvNkSo

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 00:07 | 1535544 Fed Supporter
Fed Supporter's picture

Classic.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 00:36 | 1535706 SoCalBusted
SoCalBusted's picture

Nice this bitch can have a chuckle, while she was the one that helped engineer this pile of crap.  Typical academic.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:38 | 1535344 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

watching Oriole Morrison on CNBC; one of the better blonde bimbos on financial TV; luv that Aussie accent.  Some guy from Oxford (no less) just said all the politicians worldwide did not have the confidence of the people.  DUH!

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:43 | 1535372 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

Orszag seems like a very bad guy.  Gets a woman pregnant, promises to marry her and then slithers off into the blackness.  Typical metro-sexual, liberal atheist I would guess...

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:43 | 1535377 gookempucky
gookempucky's picture

Many late nighters here with nothing better to do than wait AU break 17---- this is for all you do and enjoy the mudwrestling.

http://www.netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-rates-foreign-exchange/real-time-quotes/QuoteList.aspx?m=q

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:45 | 1535393 monopoly
monopoly's picture

When there is news to report Zero Hedge is there, no matter what the time in NY, LA or Frankfurt. Must have a staff of 200 at least. :)

So far all I have heard from our govt. is whining, like little children. To hell with the rating. Lets get to work and fix this once mighty country. Re-election is not important, taking the right track is primary for our children, for those over 55 probably too late. Congress will now work together, take pay and expense cuts, remove our troops from all foreign countries, immediately work on a long range plan for the future to not only balance the budget but pay back the 17 Trillion we will owe by Christmas 2012. Glass steagal will be back in force as banks will just take in deposits, and loan on a safe ratio.

Obama will eliminate all subsidies for housing, prosecute the banks and mortgage brokers for the fraud they committed and earn the respect of Americans again.

Shortly after all this is initiated I fully expect Obama, Geithner and The Bernank to resign. Faith in the country will rebound, small business owners will slowly begin hiring, unemployment will drop and the country after paying the piper who is now impatient will prosper. And we can finally sell our gold.

Ooops, sorry, I was dreaming. OK, Good Night

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:52 | 1535444 Travis Bickel
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"A Hard Rain's Gonna Fall"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=syZkAlVvw0M

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:56 | 1535470 electronpaul
electronpaul's picture

And what rate of GDP was calculated into the "debt ceiling" deal? 4% - 5%? If we're going double dip right now, then wont tax revenue be such a huge miss to the downside in their models that the "ceiling" will probably have to be revisited right after the Big O is routed out of office?....just asking

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 00:35 | 1535701 gmj
gmj's picture

The debt ceiling deal did NOT factor in a credit downgrade.  No good will come of this.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 23:56 | 1535474 electronpaul
electronpaul's picture

Ron Paul 2012...

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 00:45 | 1535745 honestann
honestann's picture

2012 is when we all find out whether the voters in amerika are utterly, completely and totally insane and/or corrupt.  If they are not, Ron Paul would win even without campaigning.

I'm about 99% sure we'll find out the sheople are just as insane and corrupt as they seem to be.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 03:27 | 1536136 Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

It is going to be my indicator, because if the current regime is reelected or someone like Romney then I will know that there is absolutely no hope.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 00:25 | 1535636 gerriek
gerriek's picture

Carry trade blows up. AUD in free fall.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 00:49 | 1535764 Kiwi Pete
Kiwi Pete's picture

Since the shit is hitting the fan anyway why doesn't the US Gov bring all the Freddie & Fannie May debt on to the books. That's about $7 Trillion right? Plus add in the amount "borrowed" from the state pension funds, another $400 billion odd right? That would bump up the official debt number to a nice round $22 Trillion. 

They need to admit to themselves that it's that bad! Then they can start to address the problem. As you say to alcoholics, first you have to admit you have a problem, right? Obama, congress, senate are all still in denial.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 01:23 | 1535905 honestann
honestann's picture

Of course they should.  But if they included all debt and liabilities, the debt would total up to about $220-trillion, not $22-trillion.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 01:04 | 1535832 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Orzag the genius -- I remember when the lying sack of shit was the head of the CBO and said there was less than 25% chance that the bailout of Fannie and Freddie would cost as much of $50bln.   Based on the stellar perfomance of shamelessness he was offered the job of Bush's budget chief.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 04:28 | 1536170 oogs66
oogs66's picture

the government worries so much about corporations lying, etc, but their lies are okay?  sarbanes oxley should apply to government...and they should be prosecuted for leaking so much inside information

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 01:48 | 1535989 jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

Of course he would, he's a huge fascist.  But the numbers don't lie. But it serves his purpose, so nothing unexpected here.

Everyone knows of the bs in obamacare? You know the wall street bullshit used to determine whether treatements should be done.  CER and QALY? Well those are his babies. 

He's all about cutting in his fascist ways. My guess is this is his way to push for more of his style of fascism.  Or a poke at the administration saying, 'see should of used my fascist austerity measures in a bigger way'.

He's a fascist.  But again, I'm not saying he's wrong about his estimation of the numbers, just saying, it's aligns himself with his goals.

Glass-Steagall

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 01:58 | 1536013 honestann
honestann's picture

It is rather amazing so few people seem to "get it".  The relevant facts and bottom line is trivial, so let's lay it out for all to see.

#1:  The federal government of the USSA has a printing press, and the federal reserve (its partner in crime) can cause unlimited dollar-unit credits to appear in the accounts of its bankster owners and buddies.  Therefore, there is inherently zero chance that the USSA won't pay interest or principle on its bonds unless the federal government itself is disbanded by the states (as it should be).  Anyone who measures "rating" simply as "probability the interest and principle on bonds will be paid" must rate federal debt strictly on the basis of the probability they will still exist at the time the bond in question will expire.

#2:  Like every single fiat currency in the history of the universe, the value of the dollar measured in real, physical goods is falling, and falling fast.  Therefore, anyone with half a brain would want to know whether the value of the interest and principle he receives on a bond he purchases will have [how much] greater or lesser value (in real, physical goods) than his investment.

If the received value is more than the investment, the investor earned a profit.

If the received value is less than the investment, the investor suffered a loss or haircut or default.  Sure, you could say the default was a partial default if you want to, but it is in reality a default, for the creditor failed to return even the original value loaned to him.

The above is the entire story concerning the rating of the USSA.  Unfortunately, S&P is basing its rating entirely or almost entirely on the basis of theory #1, and the downgrade is based upon the very real possibility that the federal government of the USSA shall cease to exist, exactly as that other "evil empire" of 40 years ago ceased to exist (the USSR).  And make no mistake, especially given the FACT that the USSR ceased to exist, anyone who claims it is impossible that the USSA will cease to exist in the near future is precisely as stupid or disingenuous as TimmyBoy was to claim "the debt rating of the USSA will never be lowered".

However, what S&P and everyone else who wishes to be honest should do is to formulate their ratings on the basis of both #1 and #2, because they are both very relevant considerations.  In fact, in this case, #2 is even more relevant, because whether or not the USSA manages to exist for another 30 years to pay off its 30 year bonds, the value they will repay for those debts will be massively, enormously, astronomically less than they received.

Not one single entity who buys a bond from the federal government of the USSA will earn a profit as measured in real value, not even 30 day debt.  And any entity who buys a 30-year bond from the federal government of the USSA will be utterly wiped off the face of the earth, financially speaking.

Thus, on any honest analysis, the debt of the federal government of the USSA is vastly lower than "junk".

What advice should S&P give?

Prepare for Weimar, the sequel.  Or USSR, the sequel.  Or both.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 04:26 | 1536169 oogs66
oogs66's picture

maybe some of these budget guys should have to testify under oath before dimon and blankfein.  they lie as much or more than the banksts's  what a mess

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 07:52 | 1536365 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

These are men of dishonor.  They will turn on each other.  Obama thinks he's playing us, when in fact it will be revealed that he is the biggest patsy in the biggest epic cluster fucking farce in history.  This is why Ampex sends out popcorn.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 08:56 | 1536487 pepperspray
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Judd Gregg and Peter Orszag Confrontation

 

http://youtu.be/j0XzrTV7Zzs

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 04:59 | 1667471 chinawholesaler
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