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Fear And Bloating Redux In Italian Bonds

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While there is no arguing with the strength in Italian bond prices, yield (now less than 6% again), and spreads (cash and CDS) over the last week or so, there is a rather ugly and similar-looking precedent from only five months ago that is making managers nervous. It seems that the hope is this time is different as we remember the three-step reaction to the summer's efforts to bailout the eurozone as fear gave way to hope which inevitably became reality. BTP prices are trading at levels which were viewed as precipitous in the summer and warranted massive intervention (the ECB announcements) and obviously spreads and yields reflect similarly the market reaction to any and every stick-save.

...and away from price, yields and spreads are better (notably better than their worst levels from the last month) but in context they remain drastically stressed. Of course traders' inherent anchoring biases only see the last 10 minutes and so follow the momentum.

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:09 | 1946775 oogs66
oogs66's picture

there are no markets....trillions of bonds are repriced daily on some monkeys in bank seats trading around a few billion back and forth all day, when they aren't in asking for bigger bonuses

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:30 | 1946870 rufusbird
rufusbird's picture

I keep thinking about Kyle Bass's comments about "no one looks at the numbers" also, he was talking about the Lehman bonds trading at close to par right up until filing bankruptcy.That part was at the end of the following article...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5V3kpKzd-Yw&feature=mfu_in_order&list=UL

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:01 | 1946739 Mr. White
Mr. White's picture
Things are definitely getting interesting now -- Ron Paul is the Republicans most competitive general election candidate vs. Obama in Iowa.
Iowa: Gingrich vs. Obama NBC News/Marist Obama 47, Gingrich 37
Iowa: Romney vs. Obama NBC News/Marist Obama 46, Romney 39
Iowa: Paul vs. Obama NBC News/Marist Obama 42, Paul 42 Tie
Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:19 | 1946828 FMR Bankster
FMR Bankster's picture

People in Iowa like RP. He spent time here in 2008 and now lots of time this year. We have had time to take in the whole picture not just the debate clips, ect, most are exposed to. He will WIN here on Jan 3rd. Of course it will help if it's a snowy night and the turnouts low. Remember when you see polls showing Gingrich ahead in Iowa he has NO ORGANIZATION here. He just put staff in here last week. Can't win. And Romney has some support but he also has by passed Iowa because he believed christian conservatives would dominate the vote. So far they are split amoung Bachman, Perry and Santorum with RP also picking up some support. A caucus is a pain in the ass, you have to show up on a cold winter night after a hard day at work and hang out for at least an hour. If you are not commited you won't come. I live in the Des Moines area. In 2008 RP signs were just in a few parts of the city, now they are all over the suburbs as well. When he wins he will spike from 15-18% to 25% overnight in New Hampshire. After that it will get tough.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:24 | 1946853 pemdas
pemdas's picture

Forget RP.  Not even JC Himself can save things now.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:56 | 1946972 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

+1

Looking for "leaders" to save the day is futile and naive. Not to fault Dr. Paul, who I rather like. If he were elected, it would prove he is not what he appears to be.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:31 | 1946873 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

paul has to tweak his enviromental stance abit - not to look like a flipper, but as a pragmatist willing to look at alternatives without compromising his ideals- jmo

 go Ron Paul, and give em hell!

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:02 | 1946743 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

 

 

Seriously, do not fret.

Sarkozy, speaking on behalf of Merkel, and at length and in great detail, explained how Merkel has agreed with him on every single facet of what's going to be a clean, neat and quick resolution of the, for all practical purposes, unsolvable EuroDebtApocalypse crisis (unless MASSIVE inflation for decades or massive defaults is 'solvable'), this morning.

All is well.

 

*/s

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:02 | 1946744 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

SAW CHARTS BITCHEZ!!

THEY RIP YOUR ASS OPEN ON THE WAY DOWN!

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:08 | 1946774 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

So is the average person in europe concerned about the euro or do they still have complete faith in their banks and governments?

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 13:36 | 1947110 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Nop, none of them has any clue what's happening. They've heard of a pending crisis but haven't been able to identify it just yet.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:03 | 1946749 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Insolvency can be bullish from time to time...

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:05 | 1946754 AngryGerman
AngryGerman's picture

the wheels on the bus go round and round, round and round, round and round...

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:05 | 1946757 Amused2Death
Amused2Death's picture

The difference now is that there's a collusion between the Fed, ECB and many of the G7 central bankers.  They're going to drive yield lowers come hell or high water, I wouldn't count on history to repeat itself, at least not in the near future...

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:37 | 1946889 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

don't mean to burst your bubble, but the future today has been honed down to a few milliseconds,... and the run rate is closing fast - get out -

get out before the past 100years compress into a nanosecond of lifetime remorse - jmo

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:05 | 1946758 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

don't forget timmah's trip to see the hotshots (not the finiMinis) b4 the summit

i think they will welcome him, this time

donchew?

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:18 | 1946766 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The trend line is intact. And that trend is higher yields.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:07 | 1946768 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

What's the problem?  Merkozy said today they will be meeting to plan to create a plan for everybody to discuss sometime in the months ahead.

 

Sounds like its fixed to me.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:10 | 1946777 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

The Merkozy Solution.......

"When the ship starts to go down everyone jump into another country's lifeboat.   This will promote a more harmonious union in the face of adversity."

 

 

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 13:14 | 1947026 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

"if a man [ecb] does not know what part he is steering for, no [bailout] wind is favorable for him [ez]" ___ [sic/ Seneca]

"a ship [ecb] in port is safe, but that's not what ships [ez] are built for" ___ [sic/ Grace Hopper]

"a country without a strong anchor [merkel], is like a rudderless ship [germany] in the open seas" 

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:10 | 1946788 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

What idiot would buy an italian bond over a high yielding stock like verizon, eli lilly, or PM

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:16 | 1946818 rambler6421
rambler6421's picture

"What idiot would buy an italian bond over a high yielding stock like verizon, eli lilly, or PM"

 

Plunge Protection Team.

 

libertarian86.blogspot.com

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 22:56 | 1949479 Tom Green Swedish
Tom Green Swedish's picture

Eli Lilly is a worse investment then Italy, but besides the fact the answer to your question is Jon Corzine would.  Therefore the USA Government would also do the same (since Corzine is ex-Government brilliance and comes from the same stock).

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 12:45 | 1946910 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Ita;ly big winner, US big loser in Treasuries. Will led Big Ben to QE3!!!!!!

E1 Trillion Cash Infusion into Eurozone - Fed May Enter "Bailout Bonanza!" - Italy, Belgium, Spain and France Big Winners in Bond Market, US Biggest Loser

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 22:49 | 1949455 Tom Green Swedish
Tom Green Swedish's picture

The PIG of PIGS.  Italy needs to get a new one ripped for them. They need to pay for this crap.  If The Germans have a net worth of 87,000 per person and Italians have a net worth of 98,000 per person, something is seriously wrong.  if I was Germany I would go after Italy like a wolf.

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