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Fears Of Iran Nuclear Weaponizing Lead To Brent Break Out
What is today's most underreported news of the day, and the reason Brent is breaking out, is that according to WaPo, IAEA is about to report that Iran is on the verge of becoming a nuclear state: needless to say this is just the green light all of its enemies need to launch a pre-emptive strike (not to mention, GDP-boosting). Below is some must read commentary from Emad Mostaque of Religare Capital Markets on what this IAEA finding will mean for the region, for the world and for what really matters: capital markets.
The IAEA report on Iranian weaponization is due to come out earlier than expected on Nov 9th. We maintain our belief that this report is likely to state that Iran close to becoming a full nuclear power and we look at the near term implications in this note.
- Nothing new: The report is unlikely to contain much new information, but rather to “connect-the-dots” in line with increasing US/Israeli influence over the IAEA. It is very difficult to prove weaponization absent a mushroom cloud.
- Breaking out: We believe that Iran does not intend to create nuclear weapons but are looking to reach “breakout” potential to act as a deterrent. We believe this is 6-12 months away, shifting the balance of power significantly. Iran will continue with its program regardless of international sanctions or pressure.
- Oil support, sanctions and attacks: Oil should get more support and take the Brent-WTI spread back toward $20 given the broken nature of that market. The first move may be to sanction the Central Bank of Iran, cutting oil exports and dividend repatriation (negative for MTN and the like). Russia and China will push back on this toward the end of the month, increasing the probability of an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities late November/December, which we upgraded to 40% a month ago.
Full report:
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War boosts GDP only in Krugman's Fantasy Modelled World. In the real world, war destroys resources which could be used to productive ends.
The military-industrial-financial complex sees plenty of productivity in war.
The NWO has Iran in its crosshairs...Wonder what happens to the price of crude when focus moves to Saudi Arabia in a few years...
Saudi arabia is new world order. They sold out years ago.
The end game is the total destablization of the Middle East...Saudi Arabia is loyal to the NWO, but they will be taken out eventually.
The US doesn't get much oil from KSA anymore.
China does. A lot.
Archi Bunker, how do you stop terrorism on a plane, give everyone a gun.
Which leaves less guilt for the martyr. Brilliant!
MillionDollarBonus Rocks!!
leaving aside Israel and Iran, arch enemies, the problem is that every other middle eastern nation will now aim to go nuclear even if they havent started already.
Mutually Assured Destruction, bitchez
fwiw dept:
when the USSR finally collapsed in dec/1991 there were thousands of scientist left without jobs, and within those thousands there were hundreds of nuclear physicist that became terribly nefarious having been put into survival [shock] mode as it were, many sold their talents, and many self-exiled themselves to foreign countries in need of their expertise - and many sold the actual nuclear weapons warheads in a vibrant under-ground nuclear weapons open market -
the world's superpowers were well aware of the goings on but turned a blind eye
jmo,... from a very opinionated person when it comes to the little press it got by MSM!
OIH sold off right from the open.
Los Angeles gas prices continue to flat line at 2-yr. lows, not even anywhere close to the July 2008 levels where everyone was screeching about coming gas lines, rationing, shortages, etc. that were supposed to happen in 2010 - 2013.
http://66.70.86.64/ChartServer/ch.gaschart?Country=Canada&Crude=f&Period...$/G
Why would there be gas lines when oil prices destroyed 5% of US employment? You do realize those people aren't driving to work now? And oil is still $114?
Robo doesnt need to worry about gas prices, his mom gave him another bus pass for his birthday.
So I guess they were successful in getting the sheeple to accept any gas price just as long as it's under $4.00? Give me a flippin break...I thought you were smarter then that.
MENA strategy? Is that anything to do with Slick Willy's Arkansas airport?
War is a great distraction from the political and economic criminality. The larger issue is that, usually, a nation at war does not change leaders, no matter how corrupt or venal.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15617657
Russia warns against a potential attack on Iran...
I'm sure it won't be long for China to follow Russia's lead.
This won't end well.
the russians didn't do diddy squat when libya was attacked and they won't do shit when iran is attacked either. they are part of the game and are just playing their parts, much like the leadership of iran is also.........its all one big game of watch the pea under the cups.......if the yids are so worried about iran let them do the work and see what happens. the iranians are not women and children armed with rocks.......in palestine....
just a thought -
what happens if china has our nuclear codes already locked up in 'defcon-default' cyberspace,... or the capability of 'dark-spoc's', telsa tangent wave disabling modulator - specifically dedicated defence frequency airspace?
then what?
If you listen to Dr. Paul, actually listen to what he says, it makes all the sense in the world. But soundbite nation refuses and the war mongers shout louder.
They have more important things to concern themselves with while they live in a counterfeit induced reality TV TMZ feuled Coma. I mean cmon.
LSU played Alabama this week
Kim K is flying to reunite with Kris Humperhies
Lindsay Lohan was in jail again for 8 minutes
Ashley Biden may be getting married in the White House.
These Walking Dead have no conception of how real and frightening the actual world is outside of ponzi land and the days of Applebee's appetizer specials while collecting money for simply existing is all reliant upon our reserve currency and the ability to print a wall attempting to prevent our coming just deserves. When these people stop caring about the above things it would likely mean we are entering a period of civil war.
While I am in total agreement with three out of four on your list - what's the problem with enjoying a little SEC football? Let me guess, your urbane self would rather have watched a lacrosse game between Harvard and Yale? Your comment is a perfect example of the problems in this country. Everyone looking down on the folks in flyover country. Did you ever stop to think that Ron Paul is just the type of ordinary person most of the elites look down their long pointy noses at? I'll bet ne might enjoy a good football game once in a while. This is the problem the Repub establishment has with Herman Cain. He appeals to too many of the normal folks. There are many forms of class warfare.
jfk wanted to take a peak around at dimona and then he died. now all we hear about is the iranians are doing this and the iranians are doing that. the question is what are the crazy yids doing, that is the question.
Regression analysis confirms: they're doing their god's work.
Even they don't use it, someone will make them use it.
We're supposed to fear Iran, but Fukushima, and the reactors down the street from where you live, are nothing to worry about. Orwell must be spinning in his grave.
brent coming off now....
Iran has no nuclear weapons, period.
Where are retailers trading vs. oil?
If oil prices were really going to go through the roof, the XRT would already be in a violent downtrend, anticipating a Gerald Celente "Losing It" situation.
Instead, it is less than $3 from making world record highs.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosetti...
The U.S. Consumer cannot be stopped, come hell or high water.
My XRT puts believe different. I couldn't resist when XRT was within two dollars of the high. I expect XRT to tank soon after Christmas, if not before.
And you've just made me feel much better about them.
Yeah I noticed the " WE ACCEPT EBT" signs in every retailers window in California too! Get with the program Robo. I also watched my neighbors move their new couch and plasma TV in yesterday...Might just as well squat in style...they haven't made a payment in almost 2 years and still haven't got a notice of anykind...
Monedas to Muslim World: Stick to terrorism, genocide of Coptic and African black Christians, infiltrating Europe and North America, killin' Kurds and killing each other ! That's your speed ! You ain't ready for prime time break dancin' wit' my Jews ! Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad Slap Yo Foreheads....Bitches !
Our we really going to let them get away with this shit again? This endless war machine has to be stopped... Get ready for the propaganda... Could they make it any more obvious to us at this point? I mean, it was like two weeks ago they had that fake fucking report of the Iranian government planning to assassinate the Israeli diplomat. And now this… It’s like they are flaunting their corruption these days… How dumb do they think we are?
This "machine" counts on the media and the 90% of the population without a brain. Its that simple. I often wonder if the MSM will ever get whats deserved.
Odin, it was a Saudi Diplomat not an Israeli diplomat.
Yeah thanks realized that afterwards... At any rate, they are still demonizing Iran...
Yes, All-Father. And the reason that the target of the fantasy-plot was a Saudi diplomat was that the Saudi Royals, the lions of Islam, the protectors of Mecca and Medina, said "We can't go along with this unless you give us a good excuse. And some more solid-gold bathroom fixtures."
Oh and -- I dedicate this clusterfuck to Odin!
I am sick and tired of us deciding who can or cannot have nuclear weapons.
Cmon not like we all did not know that those troops would never be permitted to leave that region. That is why they linger in Iraq and Afghanistan in a holding pattern while the foundation is laid. Admiral Fallon resigning in 2008 after refusing to get on board with an Attack on Tehran along with the market collapse and elections delayed this but the chess pieces of have aligned for the past decade.
This is what Fallon said in 2008:
In an interview with Al-Jazeera television in September, which Fallon himself had requested, according to a source at Al-Jazeera, he had said, "This constant drum beat of conflict is what strikes me which is not helpful and not useful".
They want their war. Those troops will never leave until Tehran is overtaken and peace bombs are dropped to liberate the resources. The convenient plot within the U.S. against a Saudi Ambassador last month was just the catalyst they have been looking for.
Despite Iran's madman rhetoric, like Russia the largest concern must be that crazy extremists will get their hands on a nuke and do something stupid with it. In the case of Iran, the chances are thousands of times higher than with Russia, although since Russia's collapse a lot of weapons have gone missing. There is a bunker near Transnistria for example, that is said to be nearly empty.
Um... no.
Look up a guy called Alexander Lebed, who used to be a General before he had an unfortunate helicopter accident. Look up what he said about Soviet nuclear demolition munitions. Backpack nukes.
The chances of Russian weapons ending up in the hands of a true believer -- I will not say madman, since I'm not sure who is mad -- is unity. The question is whether the Russians lost those weapons during the Collapse, or gave them away deliberately.
whose self interest does this report serve? well our Sec of State, who is hawkish on Iran. (Could she be planning a run, perhaps under the cover of a third candidate who would pledge their votes - see Humphery 68) the Israelis? Its possible Iraq might become a client state of Iran, and Israel is masterful at conquering new land in the cause of self defense. Iraq is clearly a bigger problem now than when the US was there.
Iran is far more responsible than Pakistan or North Korea. Iran's bomb threatens not the Israelis or the US. However it threatens the Saudi royalty (who have Pakistan's Sunni bomb) and therefore security of US oil supply. Hence this US reaction.
http://www.infowars.com/russia-issues-stark-warning-against-attack-on-iran/
Iran can stop the drumbeat for war at anytime. Just allow our tentacles in and set up a new central bank. edit: Oh, and fuggedabout that oil bourse! Almost forgot that..
We would love them again- smoochy smoochy.
There once was the US of Bubble
Whose mission was mischief and trouble
When its markets went "Pop!"
It played the rogue cop
And reduced all and sundry to rubble
Pakistan's nukes are really what's scary, but Israeli rattling is rightfully worrisome.
http://newsfeedresearcher.com/data/articles_w45/nuclear-pakistan-weapon....
The military industrial complex pushes the malarkey that Iran doesn’t follow the normal rules of mutually assured destruction. That they just want to go see Allah and get their 72 virgins and they don’t care if they get destroyed just so long as they can destroy Israel.
It’s a bunch of bullhockey. If anything characterizes the mullahs that lead that place, it would be caution. You can’t confuse the red meat that they throw to the crowds at religious gatherings from how they actually run their affairs.
If all they wanted to do was destroy Israel and didn’t care about their own survival, they could have long ago done that with chemical weapons. Israel has gas masks and shelters and all that, but they’ve only been used in drills and likely wouldn’t save more than ¼ of the population – there would be less than 10 minutes to get everyone down there. Iran has had the ability for decades to launch thousands of tons of nerve agent at Israel, and in a few minutes so many people would be killed that Israel would effectively be ended as a going concern.
But they don’t do it because they know its suicide. Israel has untouchable nukes in subs and they’d counterstrike and obliterate Iran.
That Iran is itching to commit suicide is pure malarkey. There’s been a civilization there in one form or another for over 5,000 years. Every time the mullahs open their mouth they speak in apocalyptic terms of battles to end all battles and the final victory of Islam blah blah blah. This has been true of mullahs ever since there have been mullahs. Doesn’t mean squat, never has. The Middle East has always been the land of outrageous statements. Everything there is always about blood flowing in the streets and battles to end all battles.
But all Iran will really discover is what all other nuclear weaponed nations have discovered – they’re hugely expensive to maintain and safeguard, and drain massive resources that could be used for civilian purposes.
The Big Lie used to whip up war fervor is that these ME countries are a threat to the west with their alleged WMDs, when, as you say, if they were to use them, they'd be sent to their reward instantly (and eagerly) by the psychopaths with the real WMDs. There can be no military threat to the US. Its military superiority is totally unchallenged, which is why it can go anywhere in the world and do anything it wants without fear. Brute force on demand--always delivered in the most humanitarian way, of course, regrettable collateral damage aside. (Sorry about slaughtering your innocent friends and family, Ahmed, but at least you still have one good arm to propel your wheelchair--a top of the line Halliburton X500, I might add. Retails for $15,000, a gift from your new best friend, the American taxpayer. Oh, and sorry about those legs, too. Remember, we did it all for you. We're humanitarians, after all. By the way, which way are the oilfields?)
I'm so sick of this shit.
SEND OUT THE KRACKEN! !!
...or even worse, Mecha-Streisand:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJaQfiKVy54
MillionDollarBonus 'Freedom is rare' ... especially on Wall St or in Oakland etc etc
I think we've got shit politicians here in the UK (and we have), but (Ron Paul aside) when I look at the options you've got stateside, I thank my lucky stars (and stripes!)
Ron Paul is to Muslim terrorists as Chamberlain was to Hitler ! "We have to make the world safe for Libertarianism !".....Monedas 2011 We got 65 years of Pax Americana after making the world safe for democracy with WWII and the Cold War....all financed with fiat ! Ponzi schemes are sweet when their yours ! We charged the whole world war reparations with our fiat pyramid ! They wouldn't have given us a dime, otherwise ! As a bonus we managed the whole mercantile world ! I hate fiat....unless your shoving it up you're enemy's ass and buying the world !
Occupy WaPo.
READ THIS!!!
The WaPo is now the monday morning diddler. 2 stories so far to affect opinion rather than being news. I wonder when they will cover real news or print fact? Naaaaa. Can't go back once you become the Enquacker.
Dagan's an "Appeasal Weasel" !....Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad War Mongerer Tour de Force
Time to play Cowboys and Iranians...
I guess it is a good thing we are "pulling out" of Iraq and Afghanistan....
We will have a hundred thousand or so soldiers, airmen and Marines out of those two shitholes...let them rest up for a couple months...and then throw them into the abyss...
I got news for some people...Iran won't be like Iraq...it will be more like Afghanistan....but with a much larger and more well-financed military...Iran is a very large nation...and it's terrain varies widely - from Mountains in the north and east to deserts in the west...and large urban areas.
Does the U.S. and Israel think that it they go in and bomb Iran's facilities...that nothing will happen in retaliation? That we can just go bomb another nation...and expect no "blowback"?
I certainly hope that the U.S. and Israel do not go forward with this plan...for all of our sakes.
The last thing the U.S. needs...the middle east needs...and the world needs is another war.
I suppose this will be good for someone though...and those "someones" seem to be the people that always control the world agenda...if "they" want war...by God...they will have it...and there is nothing that rational thinking, common sense or the best interests of everyone on this planet can or will do about it....
Lets hope this saber-rattling fizzles out and this can end without a military strike....
Latest NASDAQ chart porn suggests fun times ahead:
http://stockmarket618.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/2011-11-05_nas-8_x.png
consent is certainly being gently prodded along in that direction.
it's a month now that there isn't a day without a few clippings in
haaretz about iran, its nuclear threat, and israel's preemption.
and this is a relatively progressive left-wing israeli daily.
speaking of, @tyler:
missing the shipping forecast.
where's the stratfor US fleet report?
It doesn't seem likely that this conflict will be resolved by sanctions or diplomacy. A couple of interesting articles: "President prepared to use war as re-election campaign tool," by Paul Joseph Watson and "FBI Trickery in Terrorism Cases--Debunking the Iran Terror Plot," by Gareth Porter.
I have not read all 3 pages, but it seems to me no one has mentioned the 3 ton elephant in the room. What i am referring to here is how Iran can attack the Dimona reactor from their country. I don't care how many Arrow system Israel has, there is no way they can stop some 200-300 missiles coming all at once. The destruction of the Dimona reactor complex is probably what scares the Israelis so much. If Israel attacks, Dimona will be destroyed. Also anyone wanting to say anything about the Americans Jamming the GPS system, like they did in 1991, and in 1998 will not work this time. Iran has an understanding with Russia to use the GLONASS system, which at the moment is as accurate as the U.S. GPS system. The U.S. has no way to Jam GLONASS unless they initiate war on Russia.
This situation could be a whole lot messier that most would like to admit. It is possible we could be a few billions short on this planet when everything is said and done. I certainly hope all the instigators will be tried, and executed if they survive the war in the first place, and not already executed by very angry people in the second.
Any way we look at it, this is bad all around.
Hitting Dimona would unleash a Fukushima-like scenario in a Muslim Holy Land. Iran wouldn't do it.