• Steve H. Hanke
    05/04/2016 - 08:00
    Authored by Steve H. Hanke of The Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke. A few weeks ago, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) sprang a surprise. It announced that a...

Fed Minutes: "Easing May Be Needed If Recovery Falters"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Key highlights:

  • SEVERAL ON FOMC SAID EASING MAY BE NEEDED IF RECOVERY FALTERS
  • MOST' FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAW GRADUAL DECLINE IN JOBLESS RATE
  • MOST FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAW INFLATION SUBSEQUENTLY AT-BELOW 2%
  • MOST FOMC MEMBERS SAW UNEMPLOYMENT ABOVE TARGET IN LATE 2014
  • SOME PARTICIPANTS SAW RISKS INFLATION PRESSURES COULD BUILD

Actually, nothing new in the minutes which are largely a rehash of the official statement already released. The key paragraphs:

The Committee also stated that it will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. Several members indicated that additional monetary policy accommodation could be necessary if the economic recovery lost momentum or the downside risks to the forecast became great enough.

 

Committee members discussed the desirability of providing more clarity about the economic conditions that would likely warrant maintaining the current target range for the federal funds rate and those that would indicate that a change in monetary policy was appropriate. Doing so might help the public better understand the conditionality in the Committee’s forward guidance. The Committee also discussed the relationship between the Committee’s statement, which expresses the collective view of the Committee, and the policy projections of individual participants, which are included in the SEP. The Chairman asked the subcommittee on communications to consider possible enhancements and refinements to the SEP that might help better clarify the link between economic developments and the Committee’s view of the appropriate stance of monetary policy.

 

The need to compensate for a substantial period during which the policy rate was constrained by the zero bound was also cited by a few members as a possible reason to maintain a very low level of the federal funds rate for a longer period than would  otherwise be the case.

The minutes - link.

 

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Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:04 | 2432316 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Gold on

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:09 | 2432336 razorthin
razorthin's picture

What, doubt me?  You should have been watching the mining index leap faster than everything else on the release.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:11 | 2432352 clones2
clones2's picture

Will someone please tell me when this "recovery" is supposed to start....

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:19 | 2432414 candyman
candyman's picture

Government gone wild since the "recovery" started

http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=xOAgT8L_BqQ&feature=player_embedded

 

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:34 | 2432975 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Wait a minute, I thought the faltering was the recovery?

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 22:56 | 2433969 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Ah, now I get it, the faltering's in full recovery.

Now it makes sense...

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:43 | 2432515 Chaffinch
Chaffinch's picture

It will start, for you, as soon as you start believing their phoney statistics.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:47 | 2432537 Sam Clemons
Sam Clemons's picture

Or if there was a "recovery," did the easing actually enable it?  Could it have been just due for a cyclical rebound?  Could it have been because of $30bbl oil at the depths of the recession?

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:09 | 2432353 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

I guess by using the word "recovery", they were not referring to disposable household income ex-government transfers.............

 

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:13 | 2432372 DeltaCharlie
DeltaCharlie's picture

Minutes also stated that one Fed member wanted QE now! .... Would that be Ben Bernanke! Then, yes, gold on!

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:30 | 2432456 Aziz
Aziz's picture

I think Charles Evans.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:36 | 2432488 Marginal Call
Marginal Call's picture

Down 21 points.  Buying op.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:37 | 2432493 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

one of these times, the QE bullshit won't work

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:06 | 2432318 Aziz
Aziz's picture

It kind of sickens me how markets are trading FOMC minutes instead of fundamentals. 

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:06 | 2432324 guinea
guinea's picture

Welcome to the Politburo Economy.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:07 | 2432328 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

LOL.

That is fucking absurd. Like Camus level absurd. +1 Good sir.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:07 | 2432334 tallen
tallen's picture

Since when has the market ever traded on fundamentals?!? Hahahaha

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:14 | 2432377 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Prior to the S&L crisis, more or less.  Prior to 1913 nearly absolutely.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:22 | 2432425 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

At least some of the outcomes from the S&L crisis were bank failures, and a number of bankers, politicians, and persons of power going to jail.  Absolutely no satisfaction for savers and responsible behavior this time around.  Where is Jon Corzine?

PMs shining more than ever.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:08 | 2432338 Desert Irish
Desert Irish's picture

Why bother trading on fundamentals when just rumours of QEIII will apease the masses......

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:10 | 2432357 resurger
resurger's picture

The New Normal, Sir.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:12 | 2432367 Deep79
Deep79's picture

The scary thing is we have 0% interest rates, record stimulus, SP sitting at 1330 as i write and the "Market" needs more QE. We are done people. QE or no, it's over, and we are just hanging on by a thread. I am still of the belief that the next QE will be the final nail in the coffin. That is why FED is so hesitant to launch it.

 

 

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:22 | 2432435 barroter
barroter's picture

Agreed.  If the Free Market can't get off the  gov't respirator and breathe on it's own...perhaps time to yank the intubation tube altogether.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:31 | 2432475 youngman
youngman's picture

And what is really scary is we are watching live in Greece, Italy; Portugal; and Spain....exactly how we are going to die.....it will be the people vs the elites...they are lying...the people are begining to realize it...and they are changing their parties to the extremes...

What I am more worried about are the countries and people not in the Western world.....what are the Arabs doing..the Russians..the Chinese...the Asians..South Americans....are they going to bail out the western world or are they going to change ships and start their own "other world economy"...

I know you are going to say.."bu but but...we are 9/10 of the worlds economy" or something like that.."and they can´t leave us".....well in 10 years we will be not...and they are thinking long term....we are thinking the next election...

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 19:42 | 2433461 Iwanttoknow
Iwanttoknow's picture

Youngman,very perceptive.people in those countries may be incline to tell us to fuck off and liberate ourselves.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:45 | 2432533 Chaffinch
Chaffinch's picture

You're dead right Aziz. Didn't markets used to be something to do with the efficient allocation of capital to the best companies?

Now they are a sick joke.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:50 | 2432555 Sam Clemons
Sam Clemons's picture

Makes you wonder why they couldn't just say, "we are going to buy everything and print money for everyone" and the stock market would go up indefinitely, we'd all be rich, and streets would be paved with gold.  

I guess not enough people in the world truly believe there is no such thing as a free lunch. 

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:06 | 2432319 Tim Knight from...
Tim Knight from Slope of Hope's picture

"MOST FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAW GRADUAL DECLINE IN JOBLESS RATE" - - did the others forget their spectacles?

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:09 | 2432341 surf0766
surf0766's picture

No the others knew the jobless rate number was BS.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:08 | 2432326 Conman
Conman's picture

Oh yeahhhh - I put my hand up on your hip when i dip you dip we dip.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZPQdZLyHYE

BTFD in effect!

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:06 | 2432327 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

ONE POINTLESS COMMENTER SEES ALL OF THIS AS BEING 'EXTREMELY BULLISH'

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:09 | 2432329 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

Like there was ever any doubt. They will use unemployment as an excuse to goose banker bonuses again. QE to the moon bitchez.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:13 | 2432331 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Come  print already. I'm eager to pay off my mortgage with an ounce of Gold...better yet print enough so I can pay it off with an ounce of silver.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:08 | 2432342 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

"..EASING MAY BE NEEDED IF RECOVERY FALTERS."

Thats new and different.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:17 | 2432403 Practical Irrat...
Practical Irrationality's picture

"If recovery falters" meaning if the banks want more crack they will have to lower the markets and show worse economic numbers.  The banks will let the market down.  The Feds will continue to fake the numbers but now with a bias toward the negative.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:19 | 2432409 tiwimon
tiwimon's picture

What recovery? For a recovery to falter, there has to be an recovery and beyond Wall Street there has been NO recovery

Oh I see clearly now, not our recovery, you and me and joe sixpack on Main St, this is about Wall Street's miragical recovery which is faltering

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:09 | 2432345 pupton
pupton's picture

What just crushed silver???

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:09 | 2432350 ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

What, or who? I wonder....

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:13 | 2432378 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

What is continuing to crush silver?

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:21 | 2432422 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Paper crumbles easily when it rests on nothing.

More resilient when it rests on a base of 1000toz metal bars.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:22 | 2432424 pupton
pupton's picture

Well I am finally convinced that I am going to buy the dip here.  Just picked up 100 oz from NWT Mint @$28.58 each delivered (3 months from now unfortunately).  If we lose support under $26 I guess I'll have to scratch my head and double down around $22 or whereever it lands.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:41 | 2432514 ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

That Sir is what we call staging in and is a brilliant strategy from here as low as they choose to drive the paper price. Nice work.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:56 | 2432587 ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

Ag has gotten smacked after each of the last 4 FOMC meetings. Where nothing meaningful is said. It's perception management (The Fed Speaks, Tremble in fear all ye PM owners) and revenge for the times before that where PM's shot higher anytime the degenerate bankster BS Bernanke opened his fool mouth. Just b/c he's totally mock-able does not mean this Khazarian Kraz-ela may be mocked!

It's also a terrific way to make huge money for your friends (who're on the email notification list) while robbing honest investors. And not a single Iranian anywhere in the mix.... which is just so odd really, as it is they who are clearly our biggest, most deadly threat. Umm... right?

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 15:18 | 2432698 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

the more Ag is crushed, the more the TPTB fear gauge is spiking

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:11 | 2432355 Appleseed
Appleseed's picture

i buy 3 100z bars of silver, check zerohedge, BAM fed wants to easzzz
HAHAHAHHAA   all the way to the bank baby

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:10 | 2432356 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Yah, like Ahhnold says " Yah, you pump it up, Benny! "  " To Infinity..............And, Beyond! " Way to go, fucking asshats.

Bullish on gold,silver, lead, copper, brass, charcoal, sulphur, saltpeter.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:13 | 2432364 ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture
"Easing May Be Needed If Recovery Falters"

"Blood May be needed during open-heart surgery"

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:11 | 2432368 kaa1016
kaa1016's picture

This market is going to tank. Correlations are going to one. Go long vol...

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:11 | 2432370 pupton
pupton's picture

By the way, is the FOMC coding a message that further carnage will be required in the markets before any action?  What levels must things sink to?

 

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:13 | 2432371 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

We may need to print money if not printing money is no longer required.

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