Fed Releases Latest Economic Forecast Which Will Be Proven 100% Wrong

Tyler Durden's picture

With a few minutes to go until Ben speaks, the entirely useless projections are out (as noted before by Reuters that the Fed has been constantly wrong in its forecasts). The stunning punchline is that according to the Fed things are not as bad as one would have expected given the dramatic open-ended shart-fest that Bernanke is portraying. In fact, things are improving per the FOMC! Though we assume that these projections are self-defeating since they likely include this new policy. Be interested to see the pre-policy projections.

  • *FED: 2012 GROWTH OF 1.7%-2.0% VS 1.9%-2.4% IN JUNE
  • *FED: 2013 GROWTH OF 2.5%-3.0% VS 2.2%-2.8% IN JUNE
  • *FED: 2014 GROWTH OF 3.0%-3.8% VS 3.0%-3.5% IN JUNE
  • *FED: JOBLESS END OF 2013 AT 7.6%-7.9% VS 7.5%-8.0% IN JUNE
  • *FED: 2012 PCE INFLATION OF 1.7%-1.8% VS 1.2%-1.7% IN JUNE
  • *FED: 2013 PCE INFLATION OF 1.6%-2.0% VS 1.5%-2.0% IN JUNE

One wonders, whether in addition to having excel models which appoarently do not recognize circular assumptions, if the Fed's forecasts also assume $10 gas, $100 loaves of bread, and $10,000 gold?


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camaro68ss's picture

I See Ben Playing the Hope card

Cant wait to get home from work today so i can roll around in all my maples and silver eagles.

Its going to be rainning pre-1964 US coins at my house today. Cant really throw the bars in the air, might knock myself out.

Kitler's picture

I see the Federal Reserve DeathStar stuck between a sucking deflationary black hole and a red (ink) giant about to go supernova on us all.

Stoploss's picture

No incumbent ever survives high gas and food prices going into election.

Bye bye Obozo..

Now watch the initial claims start to explode.


Same thing with Jimmy Carter, US embassy, high gas prices / shortage. Enter Reagan.


Spastica Rex's picture

Mitt looks positioned as the second coming of St. Reagan. Maybe. It will be mighty interesting to see what BO pulls. I predict (minor) war and simultaneous gas relief attempts.

YBNguy's picture

Spanish Company Associated Soros Will “Count” America’s Presidental Votes, logisitics by SEIU 


Thats all that matters ;)

derek_vineyard's picture

Go to any betting site.....

OBama is becoming a more and more prohibitive favorite win this election. This QE announcement pretty much assures his victory.

LMAOLORI's picture



Exactly $$$ which is why the chair satan took the action it did


Rising Market Means Obama Wins

Is the Stock Market Voting for Obama?

XitSam's picture

Everyone keeps thinking Ben did it out of fear of Romney firing him.  He did it out of fear Obama would fire him if he didn't.

Michael's picture

Tony Blair Appointed Senior Advisor to JPMorgan Chase

Tony Blair Confronted At Leveson Inquiry


Dr. Sandi's picture

So Tony Blair released the inaccurate Fed Finacial forecast?

Your thread hijackings tire the living shit out of me.

Spastica Rex's picture

I'll be interested in odds about this time next week.

kito's picture

yeah, i cant wait to see the new paul volcker raise interest rates so that 100 percent of u.s. tax revenue goes to pay back just the interest on the debt.......................................

lakecity55's picture

...placed orders this morning early for silvertown bars....

figured i'd beat the crowds.

RobD's picture

My daughter was counting her piggy bank money yesterday and found two war nickels. They were worth $1.88 yester day and today they  are up to $1.97!

vmromk's picture

Take your QE and shove it up your ass BERNANKE, you MOTHERFUCKER.

SheepRevolution's picture

Or throw it out through the window driving a Volvo in Compton.

kralizec's picture

Should have him shove something more incendiary.  ; )

ZDRuX's picture

This like a little kid who gets his first $50 bill and then spends that night in bed dreaming of all the cars and toys he'll be able to buy. To wake up the next morning and realize it's $20 for a chocolate bar.

SheepRevolution's picture

Oh this brings back memories from former Yugoslavia. Average inflation rate: 50%. Per day.

IndicaTive's picture

I still can't find anything about that fucking pony! Tyler?

PAWNMAN's picture

90% of the populace doesn't have a clue that Big Ben is making them poorer day after day. By the time they come out of their collective stupor it will be too late. Gold + Lead!

Dan Conway's picture

They will start their education when gas hits $5 in two weeks.  I hope they learn from this lesson because you are right about waking up from their collective stupor.  They will discover they have no job, no savings, $10 gas, and $15 chipotle tacos but at least they will have 1% mortgages and 3% student loans.  Way to go Ben!

LawsofPhysics's picture

Wait what?  Are you saying that wages matter?  < sarc off >

Just Ice's picture



LOL...All your avatar are belong to us.

Debeachesand Jerseyshores's picture

90% of the populace has never heard Ben Bernanka or the Federal Reserve but,they can list the top ten dvd rentals and top 5 movie grosses.

Joe Davola's picture

Do they revise the inflation numbers just for show, since they report them as whatever value they'd like?

Assetman's picture


But isn't it curious that PCE inflation estimates were revised HIGHER from June... yet they STILL decided that throwing more printed money in the system would be a good idea?

You tell me how much sense that really makes.

That being said... I do think the Fed sees a global deflationary wave coming.  If they're right, this policy will look relatively good (though they will still miss on unemployment and appear ineffective on a policy standpoint).

If they're wrong, and inflation starts getting out of hand, the Fed appears confident that they can reverse policy and take liquidity out of the system.

To that, I'd day "Good luck with that".

Threeggg's picture

If employment is allowed to gain a foothold in this country the inflation created through investment, production and output would create so much inflation domestically that the system could not handle it; while they try and print the banks back to solvency. That is why we import everything we need so that we can export the freashly printed dollars (inflation distribution) to the rest of the world. If they lose the Petrodollar/Reserve Currency status that the dollar has it will be the end of the dollar. Period !

Watch this and learn the reasons we are in this mess:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HP7L8bw5QF4

Boilermaker's picture


HyperinflatmyNutts's picture

  HA!!!  Bernakrupt how does that 800 troy pound Elephant in the room feel?   

kito's picture

there is no more growth.............not coming back..............not until the population of america is 100 million less and a new source of cheap energy appears...................this country has massive structural problems that no ideology will solve................perhaps cold fusion may save the country...........................

Threeggg's picture


How can a "cheap" source of energy ever be brought to the forefront, when the dollar uses the support from higher and higher oil prices through the petrodollar system to stay alive; while printing it into toilet paper ?

Do you believe the goberment is trying and has tried to promote Green and alternative energies for the last 40 years ?

Spastica Rex's picture

Energy per captia will cost substantially less at 50% existing population.

As for cold fusion - sure, anything's possible.

kito's picture

well, yes, thats my point, that there is no cheap energy on the horizon...............my suggestion of cold fusion was tongue in cheek........................its a loooooonnnnnnnnng way offfff..................

Spastica Rex's picture

Even with magic energy (cold fusion, abitotic oil, unicorn gas) and perpetual growth, we'll have to leave the planet in a few centuries or we'll boil the oceans.

kito's picture

unfortunately every parabolic growth chart ends badly....................human population charts included............................

e-man's picture

QE1 and QE2 didn't work but QE3 will work because it's different this time. 

Dan Conway's picture

Why would Ben do this?  He knows it won't help and will probably hurt his bosses election chances (just give it a month for this thing to backfire).  If I were his age I would just want to retire and let someone esle take this mess over.  He either has a gun to his head or he knows his savings (like ours) is going to be worthless very soon so he would rather work for another 4 years.  What a jerk!

Hippocratic Oaf's picture

QE1 helped the banks

QE2 helped wall street

QE3 oh fuck it, where's Corzine?!?!?!

Dr. Sandi's picture

QE3 WILL WORK. Anybody who pays attention to the movies knows that the even numbered sequels are usually a turkey and the odd numbered sequels are golden.

Snakeeyes's picture

What a partisan creep. MBS purchases CAN'T stimulate housing since mortgage credit remains tight. Just a sugar rush.


Yen Cross's picture

 Tyler , how can you have 100% in a (nirp/zirp) environment?

  risk F/X is up modestly, but nowhere near the "general market" move. It's almost time to fade it.

Vincent Vega's picture

Behold the destruction of the U.S. $, Bitchez!

CrashisOptimistic's picture

FYI if gasoline is $10, gold will have zero value.  $10 oil means no food and no one will trade food for gold.

Gold only has value while the system pretends to exist.  At $10 oil, you have no private purchases and the gov't trying to distribute food.  Gold will not be accepted as payment by the gov't, which would then effectively have all the food.

Dan Conway's picture

That is why a gun and a boatload of ammo is your best investment.  That is what the govt is buying and so should all of us.

dexter_morgan's picture

Except, after Obama is re-elected, and you know that is going to happen, I see gun registration and confiscation back on the table.........can't let all these psychos shooting up theaters and Sikh temples go to waste.

fuu's picture

Riiiiight, gold was of no value at all before oil...