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Fed Releases Latest Economic Forecast Which Will Be Proven 100% Wrong
With a few minutes to go until Ben speaks, the entirely useless projections are out (as noted before by Reuters that the Fed has been constantly wrong in its forecasts). The stunning punchline is that according to the Fed things are not as bad as one would have expected given the dramatic open-ended shart-fest that Bernanke is portraying. In fact, things are improving per the FOMC! Though we assume that these projections are self-defeating since they likely include this new policy. Be interested to see the pre-policy projections.
- *FED OFFICIALS SAY GROWTH WILL IMPROVE FASTER THAN JUNE OUTLOOK
- *FED: 2012 GROWTH OF 1.7%-2.0% VS 1.9%-2.4% IN JUNE
- *FED: 2013 GROWTH OF 2.5%-3.0% VS 2.2%-2.8% IN JUNE
- *FED: 2014 GROWTH OF 3.0%-3.8% VS 3.0%-3.5% IN JUNE
- *FED: JOBLESS END OF 2012 AT 8.0%-8.2% UNCHANGED FROM JUNE
- *FED: JOBLESS END OF 2013 AT 7.6%-7.9% VS 7.5%-8.0% IN JUNE
- *FED: 2012 PCE INFLATION OF 1.7%-1.8% VS 1.2%-1.7% IN JUNE
- *FED: 2013 PCE INFLATION OF 1.6%-2.0% VS 1.5%-2.0% IN JUNE
One wonders, whether in addition to having excel models which appoarently do not recognize circular assumptions, if the Fed's forecasts also assume $10 gas, $100 loaves of bread, and $10,000 gold?
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I See Ben Playing the Hope card
Cant wait to get home from work today so i can roll around in all my maples and silver eagles.
Its going to be rainning pre-1964 US coins at my house today. Cant really throw the bars in the air, might knock myself out.
I see the Federal Reserve DeathStar stuck between a sucking deflationary black hole and a red (ink) giant about to go supernova on us all.
No incumbent ever survives high gas and food prices going into election.
Bye bye Obozo..
Now watch the initial claims start to explode.
Same thing with Jimmy Carter, US embassy, high gas prices / shortage. Enter Reagan.
Mitt looks positioned as the second coming of St. Reagan. Maybe. It will be mighty interesting to see what BO pulls. I predict (minor) war and simultaneous gas relief attempts.
Spanish Company Associated Soros Will “Count” America’s Presidental Votes, logisitics by SEIU
Thats all that matters ;)
Go to any betting site.....
OBama is becoming a more and more prohibitive favorite win this election. This QE announcement pretty much assures his victory.
Exactly $$$ which is why the chair satan took the action it did
Rising Market Means Obama Wins
Is the Stock Market Voting for Obama?
Everyone keeps thinking Ben did it out of fear of Romney firing him. He did it out of fear Obama would fire him if he didn't.
Tony Blair Appointed Senior Advisor to JPMorgan Chase
Tony Blair Confronted At Leveson Inquiry
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hmKHUjYDqCI&feature=relmfu
So Tony Blair released the inaccurate Fed Finacial forecast?
Your thread hijackings tire the living shit out of me.
I'll be interested in odds about this time next week.
yeah, i cant wait to see the new paul volcker raise interest rates so that 100 percent of u.s. tax revenue goes to pay back just the interest on the debt.......................................
...placed orders this morning early for silvertown bars....
figured i'd beat the crowds.
My daughter was counting her piggy bank money yesterday and found two war nickels. They were worth $1.88 yester day and today they are up to $1.97!
Take your QE and shove it up your ass BERNANKE, you MOTHERFUCKER.
Or throw it out through the window driving a Volvo in Compton.
Should have him shove something more incendiary. ; )
This like a little kid who gets his first $50 bill and then spends that night in bed dreaming of all the cars and toys he'll be able to buy. To wake up the next morning and realize it's $20 for a chocolate bar.
Oh this brings back memories from former Yugoslavia. Average inflation rate: 50%. Per day.
I still can't find anything about that fucking pony! Tyler?
90% of the populace doesn't have a clue that Big Ben is making them poorer day after day. By the time they come out of their collective stupor it will be too late. Gold + Lead!
They will start their education when gas hits $5 in two weeks. I hope they learn from this lesson because you are right about waking up from their collective stupor. They will discover they have no job, no savings, $10 gas, and $15 chipotle tacos but at least they will have 1% mortgages and 3% student loans. Way to go Ben!
Wait what? Are you saying that wages matter? < sarc off >
Oooook.
LOL...All your avatar are belong to us.
90% of the populace has never heard Ben Bernanka or the Federal Reserve but,they can list the top ten dvd rentals and top 5 movie grosses.
Do they revise the inflation numbers just for show, since they report them as whatever value they'd like?
Perhaps.
But isn't it curious that PCE inflation estimates were revised HIGHER from June... yet they STILL decided that throwing more printed money in the system would be a good idea?
You tell me how much sense that really makes.
That being said... I do think the Fed sees a global deflationary wave coming. If they're right, this policy will look relatively good (though they will still miss on unemployment and appear ineffective on a policy standpoint).
If they're wrong, and inflation starts getting out of hand, the Fed appears confident that they can reverse policy and take liquidity out of the system.
To that, I'd day "Good luck with that".
"I just sharted"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbDcnUH6rOc
If employment is allowed to gain a foothold in this country the inflation created through investment, production and output would create so much inflation domestically that the system could not handle it; while they try and print the banks back to solvency. That is why we import everything we need so that we can export the freashly printed dollars (inflation distribution) to the rest of the world. If they lose the Petrodollar/Reserve Currency status that the dollar has it will be the end of the dollar. Period !
Watch this and learn the reasons we are in this mess:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HP7L8bw5QF4
TIME TO RAPE THE CORPSE AGAIN!!!
HA!!! Bernakrupt how does that 800 troy pound Elephant in the room feel?
.
there is no more growth.............not coming back..............not until the population of america is 100 million less and a new source of cheap energy appears...................this country has massive structural problems that no ideology will solve................perhaps cold fusion may save the country...........................
Kito,
How can a "cheap" source of energy ever be brought to the forefront, when the dollar uses the support from higher and higher oil prices through the petrodollar system to stay alive; while printing it into toilet paper ?
Do you believe the goberment is trying and has tried to promote Green and alternative energies for the last 40 years ?
Energy per captia will cost substantially less at 50% existing population.
As for cold fusion - sure, anything's possible.
well, yes, thats my point, that there is no cheap energy on the horizon...............my suggestion of cold fusion was tongue in cheek........................its a loooooonnnnnnnnng way offfff..................
Even with magic energy (cold fusion, abitotic oil, unicorn gas) and perpetual growth, we'll have to leave the planet in a few centuries or we'll boil the oceans.
unfortunately every parabolic growth chart ends badly....................human population charts included............................
QE1 and QE2 didn't work but QE3 will work because it's different this time.
Why would Ben do this? He knows it won't help and will probably hurt his bosses election chances (just give it a month for this thing to backfire). If I were his age I would just want to retire and let someone esle take this mess over. He either has a gun to his head or he knows his savings (like ours) is going to be worthless very soon so he would rather work for another 4 years. What a jerk!
QE1 helped the banks
QE2 helped wall street
QE3 oh fuck it, where's Corzine?!?!?!
QE3 WILL WORK. Anybody who pays attention to the movies knows that the even numbered sequels are usually a turkey and the odd numbered sequels are golden.
What a partisan creep. MBS purchases CAN'T stimulate housing since mortgage credit remains tight. Just a sugar rush.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/09/13/fed-pulls-the-trigger...
Tyler , how can you have 100% in a (nirp/zirp) environment?
risk F/X is up modestly, but nowhere near the "general market" move. It's almost time to fade it.
Behold the destruction of the U.S. $, Bitchez!
FYI if gasoline is $10, gold will have zero value. $10 oil means no food and no one will trade food for gold.
Gold only has value while the system pretends to exist. At $10 oil, you have no private purchases and the gov't trying to distribute food. Gold will not be accepted as payment by the gov't, which would then effectively have all the food.
That is why a gun and a boatload of ammo is your best investment. That is what the govt is buying and so should all of us.
Except, after Obama is re-elected, and you know that is going to happen, I see gun registration and confiscation back on the table.........can't let all these psychos shooting up theaters and Sikh temples go to waste.
Riiiiight, gold was of no value at all before oil...
The population of the world could eat then, without oil.
It can no longer.
So, you propose that there will be no private gardens and no black market, in the event of soaring oil prices?
Sure, the Middle East and Asia are screwed, where the population increased 10-fold in under 100 years due to imported food, especially the desert areas.
However, there are plenty of areas where a reduced quantity of food can be produced with less energy. Even if the government nationalizes food production, there will always be people growing their own food in secret.
Unfortunately, flux matters. That being the rate of the sulfur cycle, the phosphorus cycle, the nitrogen cycle, etc. (all currently sped up several thousand fold by companies like Dupont and Monsanto by burning all kinds of fossil fuel). Shit, fresh water is going to be an issue, hell it already is in a number of locations. Have you ever supported your family entirely on food you produced? I have, no easy task my friend and it took about 10 acres of arable land. Admittedly, we have/had livestock. Do a simply calculation and you find there isn't even enough dry land (much less arable) land for 7 billion people to do this. Just like the financial terrorists, these agro-terrorists have put the earth into a dangerous situation. Hedge accordingly.
Matt, how astute of you. I logged your comment in my notes.
Z
Correct to a point, the point being that it takes a lot of energy to fix nitrogen period, no way around it. It Dupont were to shut down their Haber Bosch process, we lose 1/3 of the population in a few years. They still have plenty of coal and nuclear fuel to burn, of course it will cost significantly more.
must have forgot the <sarc off>.........
Anyone with school level mathematics and basic economics can see that Fed is feeding BS at large ... here's a sample:
Fed's projections of today say unemployment rate for 2013 will be 7.6-7.9% vs 7.5-8% projected in june 2012, which means basically no change. 2014 is projected at 6.7-7.3% vs 7-7.7% projected in june 2012, which is 0.3% improvement. So, is the Fed saying it will do the just announced $85 billion per month intervention for the next 2 years, and stilla chieve a 0.3% fall in unemployment vs what it estimated in june 2012 ??
The unemployment rate in 2013 will be 7.6% of the 1357 people still with a job, or who are still pretending to look for a job.
"Now where is my dartboard?" - Ben Bernanke
On your back, Benny! (Right above the "kick me" sign)
$10 gas, $100 loaves of bread, and $10,000 gold?
Bread is presently $2 for me so at $100 that's 50times current price, gold at 10000/50 = $200/oz projected current price, WTF? I think anyone would buy at that price...
Ben "Obama" Bernanke keeps talking about house prices going up ( even though he has caused their price to fall) but he has yet to talk about oil, gold or other commodity prices.
If the future is so bright why did ZIRP get extended to 2015?
This means that for 2013, 2014, 2015, WE ARE FUKED!
AT LEAST 3 more years of same-o, same-o.
Something's got to give.
Well, batten down the hatches, the shit's about to get real.
I have a question. I've heard all of my life that the FED was created to smooth out business cycles and prevent another "great depression" from happening. Yeah, yeah, I know the real goal was to transfer wealth to banksters, but ignoring that - how do they get away with saying they would prevent another 'great depression'?
If I'm not mistaken, the FED was chartered in 1913 and the 'great depression' occurred between 1929 and 1941...........
So, THE great depression we hear about ad nauseum from Bernanke and company was actually on the FED's watch, no? What the hell.......
Correct. They caused the first one too, but have apparently figured out how to cover this one up.
I'm sorry, but critical thinking and cognitive skills are not allowed. Please report to your closest FEMA camp fore reeducation education.
Semantics.
Please place yourself back to your trailer-pod in an orderly fashion, enjoy your MeatCorp-sponsored meat paste, and resume your 'dancing with the stars' session, while awaiting for your inevitable expiration.
Thank you for choosing SerfCorp.
Back in the great depression, you had millions unemployed, and millions being fed in bread lines. Now you have about 55% of the eligible employed (16-65 year old) so basically 45% total unemployment of those eligible to work, and little plastic cards issued by the government to feed 46 million and counting....The only differences with this depression and the last one is that the last one was purely deflationary, with most things falling in value, and this one is both: housing prices falling but most other thins like food and fuel going up in an inflationary manner because of the printing pre$$ action. This depression is well hidden, but look around at how many more homeless you see, the tent cities on the edge of the towns, etc. Housing prices are actually just returning to where they should be, after being blown up in a 20 year bubble.
The only thing the Fed. does "outright" is IN-f..king-flation & uncertainty!
I'm not very economics savy. The MBS that are being spoken of, are they Prime ? or are they Alt-A or sub-prime ?
Also - who do they purchase these from ? Bill Gross ? Banks that are trying to unload stuff ?
When does someone with nothing to loose shoot this printing bearded fukhead... Jesus christ
When does the attack on gold/silver begin? You know they have something up their sleeves to screw as many people as possible.
If they can buy MBS´s every month for 85 billion......why not just pay 10 million people a salary for that amount...bada boom..bada bing...they are employed....
Because that would be "socialism." "Helping" "buisiness" (cough, cough) means that it's NOT "socialism." Pay close attention to semantics!
Nothing like goal seeking your economic projections to validate your failed QE3 strategy.
Oh, and where the fuck is Corzine?
We got rid of King George and it is time to End the FED.
The Fed plans to go out of 2013, it's 100th year stranglehold of US wealth, with a bang.
Obama loves Bernanke, and also... loves very very much Bankers and "his" Fucking financial system, yessss yesss he can & he loves!!!!
I smell another party pussy...
From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Bernanke
Silly rabbit, POTUS is only there to distract attention, it doesn't actually perform any other meaningful function. TPTB, the men behind the curtain, are the ones that drive it all...
The only positive thing about this corupted system is that you can make shitloads of money trading forex and precious metals.
"shitloads of money"
Careful of what you wish for. I'm not seeking more fiat money. A shitload of shit is still "shit." Know yer goals...
They could take that $85B and give it to 50M people (the amount that I estimate pays taxes). That would $1,700/month per person. THAT would be stimulative. Right now, they're trying to prime the supply side without giving thought to the demand side. Short-sighted idiots.
These guys at the FOMC (save for Jeffrey Lacker, perhaps) have gone full retard on the delusional scale.
They are so deeply wed to the belief that high unemployment has little structural relevance-- that they are willing to up the ante with more QE each and every time they don't get the employment results they want to see.
But now, it appears, that they are moving in a direction where very close to removing the constraints on inflation targets in order to achieve their open-ended employment goals. It's about as close to ignoring the price stability mandate as one could possibley imagine.
And some wonder why gold spiked along with Treasury yields this afternoon...
The ENTIRE system, the PREMISE that it's all based on -perpetual growth on a finite planet- IS DELUSIONAL. Focusing on pieces of the system without seeing the forest is meaningless.
One can see this anyway that one wants. Those who tend to be easily distracted will BE distracted. Those who know that no matter what happens with the circus know that there are still the fundamental issues of life (required by life) to attend to: Food, Shelter and Water.
Bernanke QEd the world and all I have left is this lousy t-shirt...
You don't even own that; really should have declared bankruptcy a nanosecond faster. /sarcasm
Blumpkin Ben doin the bankers again!
As if I wasnt sick enough of the fucking assholes, the music at the end of the conference was nausiating. Again confirmation of Fascism. They bail out the banks. In my opinion its because the banks can leverage that capital up to stave off fiscal cliffs. In their minds. Imagine if the banks got the money and that 1700$ a month was x (what is it now 1/40 reserves) 40? We would see some economic growth...till hyperinflation hit. But at least we would be prepared.
Silver Bitchez...
It's time for a serious discussion as to where silver is headed.
1st of all, I don't rely a lot on charts, because of all the manipulation. I like to use reason and common sense.
Things like the gold/silver ratio, previous lows/highs, CURRENT 'market' environment, etcetera.
Silver ALREADY hit nearly $49, so I (IMHO) think $50 is a given, and soon (mid-2013?)
I think we ALL believe that another market collapse is coming. Since the QE3 is now 'open-ended', the crash will have to be caused by some black swan, not for lack of money printing to prop up the market.
IF another collapse occurs, I (IMHO) think silver, oil and stocks will retreat to WELL BELOW their 2009 lows.
Summary: Silver should get to AT LEAST $65-$70 between now and (2 years from now-end of mbs purchases?).
My plan: SELL bullion when market reaches low $60-s. Hoard cash, wait 'till crash. Buy back in, silver sub $20....yes, $18. I (again, IMHO) think silver will ONE LAST TIME go below $20, with the next history-making economy-paralyzing stock market worldwide financial crash to end all crashes.
Purchase silver that ONE LAST TIME with your previously hoarded cash.
Get rich. Literally. What say ye?
Caveats to previous post:
1. Silver COULD go to $100 in the next two years.
2. The stock market MAY NOT crash (see Japan Nikkei-this sucker's goin' down!).
3. Silver MAY NEVER go back below $30. If you sell, you may be outa luck.
4. Who wants to hoard fiat? No one! But, it's all we have (to convert silver to b4 the crash).
5. Silver to $75-100 in 2 years = Parabolic= sell.
6. ................?
The remark about circular assumptions made me wonder if they keep using the same assumptions or if they have actually tried back testing their computer models and if any have been any better than a guess. Are they trying to influence market behavior with their forecasts rather than predict it like so many of the so called polls that try to change outcomes rather than reflect opinions.