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Fed Releases New Economic Forecast, Sees Deteriorating Economy, Up To 8.2% Unemployment At Year End
In April, the Fed saw 2012 GDP between 2.4-2.9% and unemployment of 7.8%-8/0%. The just released updated forecasts table has these two critical for the election campaign data points at 1.9%-2.4%, or a major drop since April, for GDP and unemployment declining to 8.0%-8.2%. One thing is certain: whatever GDP and unemployment are at the end of 2012, they will not be whatever the perpetially inaccurate Fed forecasts.
And the old one, from April.
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Prediction: Absent a war with Iran/Syria, Obama will lose to Mittens in November.
If TPTB want Obama to win a 2nd term, war with Iran/Syria will happen before November and definitely before the US breaches the debt ceiling. War will make breaching the debt ceiling a national security matter (and thus, patriotic) and can be the perfect excuse/distraction from the imploding economy.
If they want Romney to win, sit back and do nothing as stocks drop like a brick and Obama's assertion that the economy is "recovering" and that everything was Bush's fault is proven to be a big fat lie.
Prediction: Americans will lose in November...
Just getting what we deserve.
The level of tyranny you receive is the level of tyranny you allow.
The economy can't get better without any real plans.
Unemployment will be well above 8.2%
http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/art-cashins-no-frills-preview-fomc#comment...
8.2% only after another 15 million have had to go part time, left the workforce or died.
Ben, Ben, Ben...
If you keep doing the same things you've always done, then you should expect the same results you've always gotten.
If you think otherwise, then an insanity check is warranted.
Yes, because a planned economy has work thus far, right?
It's the beauty of the american system. americans always get exactly what they deserve!
S...Slade:
They have essentially divided and conquered us.
That's the the problem right there. Too many of you think there is an "US". There is no "US", just you on your end of this discussion, and me on my end.
Actually, there is a strong correlation to the number of welfare checks issued to purchase said elections.
Prediction: We will be labeled as terrorists.
I'd wager that ZH and all of its members are already being classified as financial terrorists.
we're on a list.
Without a doubt. Black Hills has plenty of space left for another list. Especially coming from a site that appears to be documenting financial policy but is in reality predicting and then documenting the steps toward some form of societal collapse ..... accurately.
Oooooohhhhh! Were E-V-I-L!!! Right!!!!
glad "I" am not a member...
Unless Ron Paul was elected, so essentially, you are correct sir. One party, for the banks and financial houses, by the banks and financial houses.
Americans have already lost.
The Russians now have troops in Syria. There will be no pre November war there.
Don't count on Russians. The Putin regime is not much different from the Mubarak regime in Egypt. Putin and all Russian oligarchy keep their money & valuables in the Western Banks and EU. I will not be surprised to see a Russian revolution in the nest 3-5 years.
Chinese also must change their economic and giopolitical model. The present one has too many major problems both inside and outside the country. China cannot endlessly support collapsing Western economies and build endlessly empty cities.
those Russian troops aren't there to defend Assad, they are there to protect Russia's infrastructure, weapon systems and personel interests.
Even if so, Dick O'Bama is still a liar.
Con-Fed-ence
I don't know about you, but I'm FED the fuck up.
you aint alone ...
Amazing that a country with such sophistication would be run but such a group of idiots.
They're proof that inbreeding doesn't work
What do you expect from a population that's in a trance watching the Kardashians, the Bachelorette, NBA, etc?
Idiots...yes
Stupid, No.
Our reactions are predicted and when they want to impose their will, the planning algorithms have already been executed.
Can you say, suitcase nuke.
round up the dissidents....
F.Y.B. !
Bad news for the Obama Man.
Good news for stocks to continue silly rally.
DOW to 13,000? Must hold the current levels
Ah, yes, those "perpetially inaccurate Fed forecasts"...!
Sorry Tyler, you have so few typos I couldn't resist it!
DavidC
DavidC is a pretty weird fucking name. How do you even pronounce it?
Or is it David C. something?
maybe its his AA handle?
I junked you because Tyler has so many typos. Kook.
I junked him because he ends every post with his name.
Notice how core PCE was not revised lower in proportion to headline PCE. Screw the little guy who buys food and drives a car to work
Don't know about you, but I'm "Fed" up.
Bernanke's #1 mandate: Confusing the rational consumer
What will he do? Twist? Twist and QE? Build a hot air balloon and fly away? No one knows!
I doubt Bernanke knows what to do either. Intellectually, he is finished.
Shortly, Bernanke will start speaking a bird language like Gtreenspan did before him.
I have noticed how it is getting harder and harder to fudge the numbers. It brings me so much enjoyment to watch math and reality catch up with these douche bags.
So, when do we go down to the local hardware store and buy rope?
You don't already have your rope?
Buy now, beat the rush!
So real GDP will be negative. Awesome. Inflation in things you need, deflation in everything else. America's "leaders" continue to avoid having an adult conversation about capital and resource mis-allocation and mal-investment, let alone ending the Fed.
LoP guy, GDP is reported pre adusted with the GDP Implicit Price Deflator.
It's not the same as CPI, but it's similar. The point being that the quoted GDP number is already inflation adjusted.
I was thinking more in terms of the debt that will still need to be serviced and the real wages or revenues that will be required to service it. Either way, not good and the comment about capital mis-allocation still applies.
The fiasco that passes for our current global economy, will be the subject of endless future debate after the reset. The waste of resources both physical and human that is currently underway, will make previous periods of central planning pale into insignificance.
Printing money to consume more plastic crap made out of oil, and calling the resultant inflation economic growth WTF....
One of America's leaders said he would get rid of the child known as Bernanke. I'm just not sure what other Harvard/Goldman alumni would takeover.
let the rally begin
FED up.
So, they acknowledge low GDP growth and 8% unemployment by election time. Time to ramp up the "It's Bush's fault!" mantra.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/06/20/will-bernanke-twist-again-like-he-did-last-fall-the-evidence/
So Ben speaks - and market will ramp on the next QE someday rumor... Nothing new.
Declining to 8.0-8.2%?
(rolling eyes)
Of course, all the unemployed (who have given up looking because there aren't any jobs) will not be counted so there will be even more who won't be included in the future
Ahh yes, the 'ol destroying the denominator ploy...
Yeah, maybe people won't notice that.
/
Why are all these people on the street with angry faces?
What happens to those people? Do they move into their Mom's basement?
"One thing is certain: whatever GDP and unemployment are at the end of 2012, they will not be whatever the perpetially inaccurate Fed forecasts."
Never a truer statement!!!
give jamie another bonus, that should help unemployment.
the great kleptocracy shall continue until there's nothing left to steal.
Boards and CEOs pat each other on the back until they both become delusional.
I think they should use real numbers, get John Williams from Shadow Stats to give the real Skinny,plus add in the CPI #'s including fuel and food.
... wouldn't you LOVE to see John Williams as one of the journalists in the audience ... or even better, THE ONLY questioning journalist in the audience?
I'll take the over on 8.2% unemployment by year end. The November lame duck debate over debt cieling breach and fiscal cliff will spook employers. Romney win: 8.7% by 31 Dec. Obama win: 9.0% by 31 Dec.
Predictions are a mugg's game, but at least Goldman is backpeddling on the numbers and allowing a tiny bit of reality to intrude on the hopium. They would benefit from a subscription to John Williams' ShadowStats.
Anybody else get the feeling that Bernanke just threatened the Banksters if they don't support Obama. Its been pretty obvious that they have collectively shifted support to Romney in the last 6 weeks (the bad data has suddenly appeared as if it has been there all along ... as if the puppet masters decided to make the BLS puppets dance a different way).
Hmmm, if Dick O'Bama gets re-elected, Bennie may be able to avoid jail time.....
I bet he's loaned his limo to Corzine.
I am not interested in predictions. I make money trading CFD whatever direction the market is going!
"TORONTO — Canadian housing market conditions have cooled slightly, with prices down nearly two per cent in the first-quarter...."
http://thechronicleherald.ca/business/106700-canadian-house-prices-drop-...
Oink, oink.
A 1290 sq ft townhouse in DT Vancouver sold for 722K, asking 749k, It last sold for 329k in 2004. Monthly utility fees of 535. 26 days on the market. Prices in evey other part of Canada excpet maybe Toronto, are still going up. CMHC hasn't run out of money yet. They have a ceiling of 600 billion. Which means the taxpayers will only be on the hook for 300 billion tops.
That's absurd. Just proves that there's another sucker born every minute.
more lies and deceptions
Crude just broke though a triple low at $81.20
Sing it now:
It's beginning to look a lot like recession,
Everywhere you go...
Considering the Fed is always overly optimistic lower the numbers by a couple of points.
We can all poke fun at the Fed numbers, but in truth, nobody, not one swinging dick (or lady), can predict what the hell GDP or unemployment is gonna be end of 2012. The best anyone can do is make the most educated guess they can, and your *ahem* estimate is as good as mine or all the economists that work for Uncle Ben or the squid.
The betting pool, aka the NYSE, awaits your call...put in and STFU. ;-)