Fed Releases New Economic Forecast, Sees Deteriorating Economy, Up To 8.2% Unemployment At Year End

Tyler Durden's picture

In April, the Fed saw 2012 GDP between 2.4-2.9% and unemployment of 7.8%-8/0%. The just released updated forecasts table has these two critical for the election campaign data points at 1.9%-2.4%, or a major drop since April, for GDP and unemployment declining to 8.0%-8.2%. One thing is certain: whatever GDP and unemployment are at the end of 2012, they will not be whatever the perpetially inaccurate Fed forecasts.

And the old one, from April.

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SeverinSlade's picture

Prediction: Absent a war with Iran/Syria, Obama will lose to Mittens in November.

If TPTB want Obama to win a 2nd term, war with Iran/Syria will happen before November and definitely before the US breaches the debt ceiling.  War will make breaching the debt ceiling a national security matter (and thus, patriotic) and can be the perfect excuse/distraction from the imploding economy.

If they want Romney to win, sit back and do nothing as stocks drop like a brick and Obama's assertion that the economy is "recovering" and that everything was Bush's fault is proven to be a big fat lie.

ZerOhead's picture

Prediction: Americans will lose in November...


SeverinSlade's picture

Just getting what we deserve. 

The level of tyranny you receive is the level of tyranny you allow.

Shocker's picture

The economy can't get better without any real plans.

Unemployment will be well above 8.2%




Piranhanoia's picture

8.2% only after another 15 million have had to go part time, left the workforce or died.

Carl Spackler's picture

Ben, Ben, Ben...

If you keep doing the same things you've always done, then you should expect the same results you've always gotten.

If you think otherwise, then an insanity check is warranted.

NidStyles's picture

Yes, because a planned economy has work thus far, right?

laomei's picture

It's the beauty of the american system.  americans always get exactly what they deserve!

El Viejo's picture


They have essentially divided and conquered us.

NidStyles's picture

That's the the problem right there. Too many of you think there is an "US". There is no "US", just you on your end of this discussion, and me on my end.

Chuck Walla's picture


Just getting what we deserve. 

The level of tyranny you receive is the level of tyranny you allow.



Actually, there is a strong correlation to the number of welfare checks issued to purchase said elections.

SilverTree's picture

Prediction: We will be labeled as terrorists.

SeverinSlade's picture

I'd wager that ZH and all of its members are already being classified as financial terrorists.

ghengiskhan's picture

Without a doubt.  Black Hills has plenty of space left for another list.  Especially coming from a site that appears to be documenting financial policy but is in reality predicting and then documenting the steps toward some form of societal collapse ..... accurately.

Mugatu's picture


Oooooohhhhh!  Were E-V-I-L!!!   Right!!!!

LawsofPhysics's picture

Unless Ron Paul was elected, so essentially, you are correct sir.  One party, for the banks and financial houses, by the banks and financial houses.

Turin Turambar's picture

Americans have already lost.

CrashisOptimistic's picture

The Russians now have troops in Syria.  There will be no pre November war there.


caconhma's picture

Don't count on Russians. The Putin regime is not much different from the Mubarak regime in Egypt. Putin and all Russian oligarchy keep their money & valuables in the Western Banks and EU. I will not be surprised to see a Russian revolution in the nest 3-5 years.

Chinese also must change their economic and giopolitical model. The present one has too many major problems both inside and outside the country. China cannot endlessly support collapsing Western economies and build endlessly empty cities.

viahj's picture

those Russian troops aren't there to defend Assad, they are there to protect Russia's infrastructure, weapon systems and personel interests.

lakecity55's picture

Even if so, Dick O'Bama is still a liar.

SeverinSlade's picture

I don't know about you, but I'm FED the fuck up.

MFL8240's picture

Amazing that a country with such sophistication would be run but such a group of idiots.

Global Hunter's picture

They're proof that inbreeding doesn't work

SeverinSlade's picture

What do you expect from a population that's in a trance watching the Kardashians, the Bachelorette, NBA, etc?

MassDecep's picture


Stupid, No.

Our reactions are predicted and when they want to impose their will, the planning algorithms have already been executed.

Can you say, suitcase nuke.

round up the dissidents....


HaroldWang's picture

Bad news for the Obama Man.

Good news for stocks to continue silly rally.

resurger's picture

DOW to 13,000? Must hold the current levels

DavidC's picture

Ah, yes, those "perpetially inaccurate Fed forecasts"...!

Sorry Tyler, you have so few typos I couldn't resist it!

SeverinSlade's picture

DavidC is a pretty weird fucking name.  How do you even pronounce it?

Or is it David C. something?

Henry Chinaski's picture

I junked you because Tyler has so many typos.  Kook.

NotApplicable's picture

I junked him because he ends every post with his name.

nobusiness's picture

Notice how core PCE was not revised lower in proportion to headline PCE.  Screw the little guy who buys food and drives a car to work

Crack-up Boom's picture

Don't know about you, but I'm "Fed" up. 

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Bernanke's #1 mandate:  Confusing the rational consumer

What will he do?  Twist?  Twist and QE?  Build a hot air balloon and fly away?  No one knows!

caconhma's picture

I doubt Bernanke knows what to do either.  Intellectually, he is finished. 

Shortly, Bernanke will start speaking a bird language like Gtreenspan did before him.

WatchingIgnorance's picture

I have noticed how it is getting harder and harder to fudge the numbers. It brings me so much enjoyment to watch math and reality catch up with these douche bags.

So, when do we go down to the local hardware store and buy rope?

Nobody For President's picture

You don't already have your rope?

Buy now, beat the rush!

LawsofPhysics's picture

So real GDP will be negative.  Awesome.  Inflation in things you need, deflation in everything else.  America's "leaders" continue to avoid having an adult conversation about capital and resource mis-allocation and mal-investment, let alone ending the Fed.

CrashisOptimistic's picture

LoP guy, GDP is reported pre adusted with the GDP Implicit Price Deflator.

It's not the same as CPI, but it's similar.  The point being that the quoted GDP number is already inflation adjusted.

LawsofPhysics's picture

I was thinking more in terms of the debt that will still need to be serviced and the real wages or revenues that will be required to service it.  Either way, not good and the comment about capital mis-allocation still applies.

Poor Grogman's picture

The fiasco that passes for our current global economy, will be the subject of endless future debate after the reset. The waste of resources both physical and human that is currently underway, will make previous periods of central planning pale into insignificance.

Printing money to consume more plastic crap made out of oil, and calling the resultant inflation economic growth WTF....

Everybodys All American's picture

One of America's leaders said he would get rid of the child known as Bernanke. I'm just not sure what other Harvard/Goldman alumni would takeover.