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Fed Releases New Economic Forecast, Sees Deteriorating Economy, Up To 8.2% Unemployment At Year End

Tyler Durden's picture


In April, the Fed saw 2012 GDP between 2.4-2.9% and unemployment of 7.8%-8/0%. The just released updated forecasts table has these two critical for the election campaign data points at 1.9%-2.4%, or a major drop since April, for GDP and unemployment declining to 8.0%-8.2%. One thing is certain: whatever GDP and unemployment are at the end of 2012, they will not be whatever the perpetially inaccurate Fed forecasts.

And the old one, from April.


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Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:08 | 2544351 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

Prediction: Absent a war with Iran/Syria, Obama will lose to Mittens in November.

If TPTB want Obama to win a 2nd term, war with Iran/Syria will happen before November and definitely before the US breaches the debt ceiling.  War will make breaching the debt ceiling a national security matter (and thus, patriotic) and can be the perfect excuse/distraction from the imploding economy.

If they want Romney to win, sit back and do nothing as stocks drop like a brick and Obama's assertion that the economy is "recovering" and that everything was Bush's fault is proven to be a big fat lie.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:10 | 2544370 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Prediction: Americans will lose in November...


Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:12 | 2544382 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

Just getting what we deserve. 

The level of tyranny you receive is the level of tyranny you allow.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:16 | 2544398 Shocker
Shocker's picture

The economy can't get better without any real plans.

Unemployment will be well above 8.2%


Wed, 06/20/2012 - 15:52 | 2544842 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

8.2% only after another 15 million have had to go part time, left the workforce or died.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 16:08 | 2544896 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

Ben, Ben, Ben...

If you keep doing the same things you've always done, then you should expect the same results you've always gotten.

If you think otherwise, then an insanity check is warranted.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 20:07 | 2545556 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Yes, because a planned economy has work thus far, right?

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:23 | 2544461 laomei
laomei's picture

It's the beauty of the american system.  americans always get exactly what they deserve!

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 15:12 | 2544665 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture


They have essentially divided and conquered us.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 20:09 | 2545561 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

That's the the problem right there. Too many of you think there is an "US". There is no "US", just you on your end of this discussion, and me on my end.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 15:35 | 2544769 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture


Just getting what we deserve. 

The level of tyranny you receive is the level of tyranny you allow.



Actually, there is a strong correlation to the number of welfare checks issued to purchase said elections.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:12 | 2544389 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

Prediction: We will be labeled as terrorists.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:16 | 2544413 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

I'd wager that ZH and all of its members are already being classified as financial terrorists.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:18 | 2544426 bigkahuna
bigkahuna's picture

we're on a list.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:44 | 2544541 ghengiskhan
ghengiskhan's picture

Without a doubt.  Black Hills has plenty of space left for another list.  Especially coming from a site that appears to be documenting financial policy but is in reality predicting and then documenting the steps toward some form of societal collapse ..... accurately.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:57 | 2544591 Mugatu
Mugatu's picture


Oooooohhhhh!  Were E-V-I-L!!!   Right!!!!

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 21:51 | 2545781 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

glad "I" am not a member...

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:13 | 2544394 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Unless Ron Paul was elected, so essentially, you are correct sir.  One party, for the banks and financial houses, by the banks and financial houses.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 15:00 | 2544615 Turin Turambar
Turin Turambar's picture

Americans have already lost.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:12 | 2544384 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

The Russians now have troops in Syria.  There will be no pre November war there.


Wed, 06/20/2012 - 15:02 | 2544622 caconhma
caconhma's picture

Don't count on Russians. The Putin regime is not much different from the Mubarak regime in Egypt. Putin and all Russian oligarchy keep their money & valuables in the Western Banks and EU. I will not be surprised to see a Russian revolution in the nest 3-5 years.

Chinese also must change their economic and giopolitical model. The present one has too many major problems both inside and outside the country. China cannot endlessly support collapsing Western economies and build endlessly empty cities.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 15:32 | 2544754 viahj
viahj's picture

those Russian troops aren't there to defend Assad, they are there to protect Russia's infrastructure, weapon systems and personel interests.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 18:41 | 2545349 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Even if so, Dick O'Bama is still a liar.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:06 | 2544353 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture


Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:10 | 2544369 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

I don't know about you, but I'm FED the fuck up.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:11 | 2544381 resurger
resurger's picture

you aint alone ...

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:07 | 2544356 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Amazing that a country with such sophistication would be run but such a group of idiots.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:12 | 2544383 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

They're proof that inbreeding doesn't work

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:19 | 2544432 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

What do you expect from a population that's in a trance watching the Kardashians, the Bachelorette, NBA, etc?

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 15:25 | 2544692 MassDecep
MassDecep's picture


Stupid, No.

Our reactions are predicted and when they want to impose their will, the planning algorithms have already been executed.

Can you say, suitcase nuke.

round up the dissidents....


Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:07 | 2544357 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

F.Y.B. !

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:09 | 2544362 HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

Bad news for the Obama Man.

Good news for stocks to continue silly rally.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:11 | 2544376 resurger
resurger's picture

DOW to 13,000? Must hold the current levels

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:09 | 2544363 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Ah, yes, those "perpetially inaccurate Fed forecasts"...!

Sorry Tyler, you have so few typos I couldn't resist it!

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:11 | 2544374 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

DavidC is a pretty weird fucking name.  How do you even pronounce it?

Or is it David C. something?

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:12 | 2544391 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

maybe its his AA handle?

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:27 | 2544465 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

I junked you because Tyler has so many typos.  Kook.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 15:10 | 2544657 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I junked him because he ends every post with his name.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:09 | 2544364 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Notice how core PCE was not revised lower in proportion to headline PCE.  Screw the little guy who buys food and drives a car to work

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:10 | 2544368 Crack-up Boom
Crack-up Boom's picture

Don't know about you, but I'm "Fed" up. 

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:10 | 2544371 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Bernanke's #1 mandate:  Confusing the rational consumer

What will he do?  Twist?  Twist and QE?  Build a hot air balloon and fly away?  No one knows!

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 15:06 | 2544646 caconhma
caconhma's picture

I doubt Bernanke knows what to do either.  Intellectually, he is finished. 

Shortly, Bernanke will start speaking a bird language like Gtreenspan did before him.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:10 | 2544373 WatchingIgnorance
WatchingIgnorance's picture

I have noticed how it is getting harder and harder to fudge the numbers. It brings me so much enjoyment to watch math and reality catch up with these douche bags.

So, when do we go down to the local hardware store and buy rope?

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 15:53 | 2544843 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

You don't already have your rope?

Buy now, beat the rush!

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:11 | 2544375 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

So real GDP will be negative.  Awesome.  Inflation in things you need, deflation in everything else.  America's "leaders" continue to avoid having an adult conversation about capital and resource mis-allocation and mal-investment, let alone ending the Fed.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:14 | 2544400 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

LoP guy, GDP is reported pre adusted with the GDP Implicit Price Deflator.

It's not the same as CPI, but it's similar.  The point being that the quoted GDP number is already inflation adjusted.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:23 | 2544464 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I was thinking more in terms of the debt that will still need to be serviced and the real wages or revenues that will be required to service it.  Either way, not good and the comment about capital mis-allocation still applies.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 15:03 | 2544630 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

The fiasco that passes for our current global economy, will be the subject of endless future debate after the reset. The waste of resources both physical and human that is currently underway, will make previous periods of central planning pale into insignificance.

Printing money to consume more plastic crap made out of oil, and calling the resultant inflation economic growth WTF....

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 15:47 | 2544824 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

One of America's leaders said he would get rid of the child known as Bernanke. I'm just not sure what other Harvard/Goldman alumni would takeover.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:13 | 2544395 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

let the rally begin

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:14 | 2544401 q99x2
q99x2's picture

FED up.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:14 | 2544405 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

So, they acknowledge low GDP growth and 8% unemployment by election time. Time to ramp up the "It's Bush's fault!" mantra.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:15 | 2544410 HD
HD's picture

So Ben speaks - and market will ramp on the next QE someday rumor... Nothing new.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:19 | 2544431 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Declining to 8.0-8.2%?

(rolling eyes)

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:23 | 2544458 Racer
Racer's picture

Of course, all the unemployed (who have given up looking because there aren't any jobs) will not be counted so there will be even more who won't be included in the future

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:37 | 2544518 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Ahh yes, the 'ol destroying the denominator ploy...

Yeah, maybe people won't notice that.


Why are all these people on the street with angry faces?

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:55 | 2544584 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

What happens to those people? Do they move into their Mom's basement?

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:20 | 2544435 Racer
Racer's picture

"One thing is certain: whatever GDP and unemployment are at the end of 2012, they will not be whatever the perpetially inaccurate Fed forecasts."

Never a truer statement!!!

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:27 | 2544482 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

give jamie another bonus, that should help unemployment.

the great kleptocracy shall continue until there's nothing left to steal.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:52 | 2544575 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Boards and CEOs pat each other on the back until they both become delusional.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:27 | 2544484 DosZap
DosZap's picture

I think they should use real numbers, get John Williams from Shadow Stats to give the real Skinny,plus add in the CPI #'s including fuel and food.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:43 | 2544523 bdc63
bdc63's picture

... wouldn't you LOVE to see John Williams as one of the journalists in the audience ... or even better, THE ONLY questioning journalist in the audience?


Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:29 | 2544491 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

I'll take the over on 8.2% unemployment by year end.  The November lame duck debate over debt cieling breach and fiscal cliff will spook employers.  Romney win: 8.7% by 31 Dec.  Obama win: 9.0% by 31 Dec.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:35 | 2544513 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

Predictions are a mugg's game, but at least Goldman is backpeddling on the numbers and allowing a tiny bit of reality to intrude on the hopium. They would benefit from a subscription to John Williams' ShadowStats.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:52 | 2544573 ghengiskhan
ghengiskhan's picture

Anybody else get the feeling that Bernanke just threatened the Banksters if they don't support Obama.  Its been pretty obvious that they have collectively shifted support to Romney in the last 6 weeks (the bad data has suddenly appeared as if it has been there all along ... as if the puppet masters decided to make the BLS puppets dance a different way).

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 18:37 | 2545339 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Hmmm, if Dick O'Bama gets re-elected, Bennie may be able to avoid jail time.....

I bet he's loaned his limo to Corzine.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:54 | 2544579 Silversem
Silversem's picture

I am not interested in predictions. I make money trading CFD whatever direction the market is going! 

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 14:57 | 2544592 Arnold Ziffel
Arnold Ziffel's picture
Canadian house prices drop early in year, report says


"TORONTO — Canadian housing market conditions have cooled slightly, with prices down nearly two per cent in the first-quarter...."


Oink, oink.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 15:08 | 2544649 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

A 1290 sq ft townhouse in DT Vancouver sold for 722K, asking 749k, It last sold for 329k in 2004. Monthly utility fees of 535. 26 days on the market. Prices in evey other part of Canada excpet maybe Toronto, are still going up. CMHC hasn't run out of money yet. They have a ceiling of 600 billion. Which means the taxpayers will only be on the hook for 300 billion tops.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 15:47 | 2544825 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

That's absurd.  Just proves that there's another sucker born every minute.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 15:01 | 2544620 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

more lies and deceptions

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 15:10 | 2544658 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Crude just broke though a triple low at $81.20

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 15:14 | 2544671 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Sing it now:

It's beginning to look a lot like recession,

Everywhere you go...

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 15:33 | 2544761 blueridgeviews
blueridgeviews's picture

Considering the Fed is always overly optimistic lower the numbers by a couple of points.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 15:59 | 2544862 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

We can all poke fun at the Fed numbers, but in truth, nobody, not one swinging dick (or lady), can predict what the hell GDP or unemployment is gonna be end of 2012. The best anyone can do is make the most educated guess they can, and your *ahem* estimate is as good as mine or all the economists that work for Uncle Ben or the squid.

The betting pool, aka the NYSE, awaits your call...put in and STFU. ;-)

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