This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Federal Reserve Prediction Error Rate: 33% In Under 3 Months... Or 133%+ Annualized

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Today, Sandra Pianalto, president of the most irrelevant Fed in the US, the Cleveland one, confirmed why when it comes to economic predictions, one may want to take anything uttered by the rocket scientists at the Fed with a pinch of salt... and why in general anytime an economist speaks it is best to run away. Specifically, in her prepared remarks to whoever it is that is dumb enough to listen, she just said that she expects the US economy to grow by 2% in 2011. Funny, because a simple google search reveals the following glaring headline from those long ago days of June 1, 2011...

So... from 3% to 2% in 11 weeks - a 33% change in forecast in under 3 months, or well over 133% annualized... And these are the clueless astrologists that not only determine our monetary policy, but tells savers to buy a lot of vaseline for the next 2 years as that's the only thing they will need in an environment in which the interest rate on their savings is zero until "mid-2013"

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Fri, 08/19/2011 - 08:52 | 1576607 TheTmfreak
TheTmfreak's picture

Is it just me or do predictions really just mean "what they want" to happen? This applies not to the FED but every other oracle out there making predictions?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 09:00 | 1576638 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Why did God create economists?

To make weather men look good.

Bu-dum-dum.

Disclaimer: This joke excludes economists of the Austrian School

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 13:53 | 1578133 sitenine
sitenine's picture

"or 133%+ Annualized" ???

Shame on you TD. Percentages are not additive. You of all people should know this!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 08:58 | 1576642 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Close enough for government work, I guess.

 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 08:52 | 1576611 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

There's a reason why she wasn't a Physics major.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 08:59 | 1576645 Fox-Scully
Fox-Scully's picture

or Math major!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 09:17 | 1576721 TapperIsTicked
TapperIsTicked's picture

If I use a millimeter scale I'm hung like a horse.

Lies may work for a while but sooner or later reality sets in and word gets out.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 09:39 | 1576816 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

But, she has a PH.D!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 08:52 | 1576612 falak pema
falak pema's picture

will 3% nominal pay back debt, allow consumption to resume, housing to bloom, employment to zoom. Not if imports cream the market.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 08:54 | 1576617 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

She is just "jumping the shark" with Ferolli and all the others.    She has a right to change her mind just as much as Wall Street. 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 08:54 | 1576615 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Imaginary money thrown at imaginary problems

The extend and pretend is the only thing standing between them and the pitchforks ... and ... they know it.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:06 | 1576956 indygo55
indygo55's picture

I am long pitch fork manufacturers.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 08:55 | 1576620 jjsilver
jjsilver's picture

Idaho Supreme Court has ruled that the Sixth Amendment of the US Constitution no longer applies within the boundary of Idaho

http://www.free-edgar-steele.com/?p=484

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 09:19 | 1576736 pods
pods's picture

Can you smell the freedom?  At least we have dropped the veil that we DO have a rule of law.

pods

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 08:55 | 1576623 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

They should just STFU! 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 08:56 | 1576624 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Please, don't mention vaseline to Zorba, it brings back bad memories.

When Zorba was a boy, his parents signed him up to be cabin boy on

a Greek vaseline tanker.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 09:45 | 1576859 Pay Day Today
Pay Day Today's picture

Gulp. I'm afraid of what this even means.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 08:56 | 1576626 Doode
Doode's picture

In all fairness there was that debt debacle and a dowgrade that materially affected both consumers and businesses alike. Do not think it is all her fault - need to take changing political landscape into consideration as well.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 08:58 | 1576643 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Changing political landscape? OMG Give me a break Doode, it was all planned destruction. Anyone thinking these FED's are in there trying to do rescue and salvage operations on the purposely imploded US economy needs to wake up. 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 09:13 | 1576703 Doode
Doode's picture

I do not think Fed had anything to do with both parties not being able to reach an entitlement reform agreement.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:18 | 1576995 i-dog
i-dog's picture

"entitlement reform agreement"

Spare me the humour!! The horse has not only bolted, but has already been processed into [Chinese] glue. It's a bit late for some minor adjustments to the barn door.....

You do understand, I hope, that all that extra debt from QE being shipped off to foreign banks is yet another new tax on American serfs?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 09:10 | 1576690 Jeff Lebowski
Jeff Lebowski's picture

Let's not allow anyone to take any accountability.  Certainly the Federal Reserve for being downgraded in the first place...

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 08:56 | 1576627 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Never believe what a central bankster says, same as going full retard.

Exibit A- Robotrader. Awarded Bernanke 'Hero of the New Millenium' and look at him now after going long at DOW 12,700.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 08:57 | 1576635 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Do not feel sorry for Robotrader.  Doug Kass hired him as Chief Investment Officer.  He is not permitted to post here any more. 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 09:08 | 1576676 Version 7
Version 7's picture

Wish all the luck to Doug, gonna need it

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 09:07 | 1576677 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Don't be mean...he's in the hospital for fiat's sake....something about an aneurysm while fellating James Altucher Monday morning.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 09:23 | 1576750 The Limerick King
The Limerick King's picture

Bull-tard fellation is scary

Those who engage should be wary

Just look at poor Doug

Who choked on James' rug

He should have known James would be hairy

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 08:56 | 1576628 sudzee
sudzee's picture

Testing, testing, testing. A lead up to next weeks announcement of QEmongus.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 09:00 | 1576648 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Go ahead, I dare them! Gold - $4,000, USD 1/8th of 1 cent. Do it.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 08:57 | 1576633 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Just doing her part in the smoke and mirrors act.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 09:00 | 1576651 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Exactly, good cop/bad cop.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 08:57 | 1576634 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

My granny grew up in the depression and used to say "Hoover said a car in every garage and 2 chickens in every pot". Next thing I knew we were walking and eating turnips.

I fully do NOT trust any gov't. period.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 09:02 | 1576657 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL exactly, theres no way out of here, when you come in youre in for good.

David Gilmore.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 08:58 | 1576639 FOC 1183
FOC 1183's picture

Actually, 33% over 11 weeks annualizes to 284%.  Sandra, FTW

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 09:01 | 1576654 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

so the dept to GDP ratio....

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 09:02 | 1576655 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

3% assumed no QE3.  Assuming QE3 drops growth from 3 to 2% as gas goes from $3.75 now to $5 by Xmas.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 09:03 | 1576662 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Either way, screwed. No one believes in the QE nonsense anymore it has turned from magic elixir to deadly poison.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 09:04 | 1576668 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Maybe she should pay a visit to the Betty Ford Center.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 09:10 | 1576689 snowball777
snowball777's picture

They help addicts, not idiots.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 09:06 | 1576673 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

QE? Sorry, no ones buyin it anymore. 

But go ahead Ben, hasten the total collapse, I wouldnt mind seeing my gold at $4,000 an oz at all, that would mean 1,000% investing success on my part in just over 3 years, something ass hat 'guru' Buffet cant even claim even with his insider trading style.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 09:30 | 1576785 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Agreed.

SheepDog-One,

If I comment again today on Zero Hedge it's going to be ask slewie the pi-rat a question regarding one of his comments yesterday.  Included in that comment is going to be a reference to you.  I welcome your feedback on the upcoming question as well.  Look for it and have a great day dude.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 09:06 | 1576675 gwar5
gwar5's picture

 

I only pay attention to what the Fed has to say just to see what the other side is doing.

 

 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 09:09 | 1576685 snowball777
snowball777's picture

"So, clearly, I cannot choose the wine in front of you." - Vizzini

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 09:14 | 1576700 AcidRastaHead
AcidRastaHead's picture

When you think about it, do you think she is really sitting around pouring over months and trends of economic data and applying forecasting scenarios to come up what she believes will happen.  More likely she just parrots whatever the consensus is with a couple of talking points to create the impression of sound reasoning.  Like most other economists.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 09:22 | 1576741 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

I know your pain Tyler. They get paid so much and they provide so little. Why didn't I care about acquiring power and position when I was young? Well, I did care about obtaining position, but I was far happier when she assumed the power.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 09:21 | 1576745 shortus cynicus
shortus cynicus's picture

They should stop predicting and start focusing solely on activity where they are really good such as printing for example.

 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 09:34 | 1576798 Rothbardian in ...
Rothbardian in Cleveland's picture

The forecast has always been 2% and has never been 3%.  Also, we have always been at war with Eurasia and have never been at war with East Asia.

 

Thank you,

The Ministry of Truth

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 09:34 | 1576799 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...prophetic strong delusion ...Bitchez. lol

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 09:49 | 1576880 digalert
digalert's picture

The phenomena is called Obama speak.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:05 | 1577328 electronpaul
electronpaul's picture

I'm sure the US Treasury gives them a run for their money. BTW, what revenue projection decrease is the "new" economic environment going to render to the "budget deficit deal"?
What was the over/under on the next breach of the "ceiling"? 4Q2012?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!