Federal Reserve Prediction Error Rate: 33% In Under 3 Months... Or 133%+ Annualized

Tyler Durden's picture

Today, Sandra Pianalto, president of the most irrelevant Fed in the US, the Cleveland one, confirmed why when it comes to economic predictions, one may want to take anything uttered by the rocket scientists at the Fed with a pinch of salt... and why in general anytime an economist speaks it is best to run away. Specifically, in her prepared remarks to whoever it is that is dumb enough to listen, she just said that she expects the US economy to grow by 2% in 2011. Funny, because a simple google search reveals the following glaring headline from those long ago days of June 1, 2011...

So... from 3% to 2% in 11 weeks - a 33% change in forecast in under 3 months, or well over 133% annualized... And these are the clueless astrologists that not only determine our monetary policy, but tells savers to buy a lot of vaseline for the next 2 years as that's the only thing they will need in an environment in which the interest rate on their savings is zero until "mid-2013"

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TheTmfreak's picture

Is it just me or do predictions really just mean "what they want" to happen? This applies not to the FED but every other oracle out there making predictions?

Pladizow's picture

Why did God create economists?

To make weather men look good.


Disclaimer: This joke excludes economists of the Austrian School

sitenine's picture

"or 133%+ Annualized" ???

Shame on you TD. Percentages are not additive. You of all people should know this!

TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Close enough for government work, I guess.


HelluvaEngineer's picture

There's a reason why she wasn't a Physics major.

TapperIsTicked's picture

If I use a millimeter scale I'm hung like a horse.

Lies may work for a while but sooner or later reality sets in and word gets out.

falak pema's picture

will 3% nominal pay back debt, allow consumption to resume, housing to bloom, employment to zoom. Not if imports cream the market.

slaughterer's picture

She is just "jumping the shark" with Ferolli and all the others.    She has a right to change her mind just as much as Wall Street. 

ArkansasAngie's picture

Imaginary money thrown at imaginary problems

The extend and pretend is the only thing standing between them and the pitchforks ... and ... they know it.

indygo55's picture

I am long pitch fork manufacturers.

jjsilver's picture

Idaho Supreme Court has ruled that the Sixth Amendment of the US Constitution no longer applies within the boundary of Idaho


pods's picture

Can you smell the freedom?  At least we have dropped the veil that we DO have a rule of law.


rubearish10's picture

They should just STFU! 

zorba THE GREEK's picture

Please, don't mention vaseline to Zorba, it brings back bad memories.

When Zorba was a boy, his parents signed him up to be cabin boy on

a Greek vaseline tanker.

Pay Day Today's picture

Gulp. I'm afraid of what this even means.

Doode's picture

In all fairness there was that debt debacle and a dowgrade that materially affected both consumers and businesses alike. Do not think it is all her fault - need to take changing political landscape into consideration as well.

SheepDog-One's picture

'Changing political landscape? OMG Give me a break Doode, it was all planned destruction. Anyone thinking these FED's are in there trying to do rescue and salvage operations on the purposely imploded US economy needs to wake up. 

Doode's picture

I do not think Fed had anything to do with both parties not being able to reach an entitlement reform agreement.

i-dog's picture

"entitlement reform agreement"

Spare me the humour!! The horse has not only bolted, but has already been processed into [Chinese] glue. It's a bit late for some minor adjustments to the barn door.....

You do understand, I hope, that all that extra debt from QE being shipped off to foreign banks is yet another new tax on American serfs?

Jeff Lebowski's picture

Let's not allow anyone to take any accountability.  Certainly the Federal Reserve for being downgraded in the first place...

SheepDog-One's picture

Never believe what a central bankster says, same as going full retard.

Exibit A- Robotrader. Awarded Bernanke 'Hero of the New Millenium' and look at him now after going long at DOW 12,700.

slaughterer's picture

Do not feel sorry for Robotrader.  Doug Kass hired him as Chief Investment Officer.  He is not permitted to post here any more. 

Version 7's picture

Wish all the luck to Doug, gonna need it

snowball777's picture

Don't be mean...he's in the hospital for fiat's sake....something about an aneurysm while fellating James Altucher Monday morning.

The Limerick King's picture

Bull-tard fellation is scary

Those who engage should be wary

Just look at poor Doug

Who choked on James' rug

He should have known James would be hairy

sudzee's picture

Testing, testing, testing. A lead up to next weeks announcement of QEmongus.

SheepDog-One's picture

Go ahead, I dare them! Gold - $4,000, USD 1/8th of 1 cent. Do it.

Manthong's picture

Just doing her part in the smoke and mirrors act.

SheepDog-One's picture

Exactly, good cop/bad cop.

rsnoble's picture

My granny grew up in the depression and used to say "Hoover said a car in every garage and 2 chickens in every pot". Next thing I knew we were walking and eating turnips.

I fully do NOT trust any gov't. period.

SheepDog-One's picture

LOL exactly, theres no way out of here, when you come in youre in for good.

David Gilmore.

FOC 1183's picture

Actually, 33% over 11 weeks annualizes to 284%.  Sandra, FTW

Sudden Debt's picture

so the dept to GDP ratio....

101 years and counting's picture

3% assumed no QE3.  Assuming QE3 drops growth from 3 to 2% as gas goes from $3.75 now to $5 by Xmas.

SheepDog-One's picture

Either way, screwed. No one believes in the QE nonsense anymore it has turned from magic elixir to deadly poison.

Silverhog's picture

Maybe she should pay a visit to the Betty Ford Center.

snowball777's picture

They help addicts, not idiots.

SheepDog-One's picture

QE? Sorry, no ones buyin it anymore. 

But go ahead Ben, hasten the total collapse, I wouldnt mind seeing my gold at $4,000 an oz at all, that would mean 1,000% investing success on my part in just over 3 years, something ass hat 'guru' Buffet cant even claim even with his insider trading style.

Vic Vinegar's picture



If I comment again today on Zero Hedge it's going to be ask slewie the pi-rat a question regarding one of his comments yesterday.  Included in that comment is going to be a reference to you.  I welcome your feedback on the upcoming question as well.  Look for it and have a great day dude.

gwar5's picture


I only pay attention to what the Fed has to say just to see what the other side is doing.



snowball777's picture

"So, clearly, I cannot choose the wine in front of you." - Vizzini

AcidRastaHead's picture

When you think about it, do you think she is really sitting around pouring over months and trends of economic data and applying forecasting scenarios to come up what she believes will happen.  More likely she just parrots whatever the consensus is with a couple of talking points to create the impression of sound reasoning.  Like most other economists.

Village Smithy's picture

I know your pain Tyler. They get paid so much and they provide so little. Why didn't I care about acquiring power and position when I was young? Well, I did care about obtaining position, but I was far happier when she assumed the power.

shortus cynicus's picture

They should stop predicting and start focusing solely on activity where they are really good such as printing for example.


Rothbardian in Cleveland's picture

The forecast has always been 2% and has never been 3%.  Also, we have always been at war with Eurasia and have never been at war with East Asia.


Thank you,

The Ministry of Truth

BlackholeDivestment's picture

...prophetic strong delusion ...Bitchez. lol

digalert's picture

The phenomena is called Obama speak.

electronpaul's picture

I'm sure the US Treasury gives them a run for their money. BTW, what revenue projection decrease is the "new" economic environment going to render to the "budget deficit deal"?
What was the over/under on the next breach of the "ceiling"? 4Q2012?