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Federal Reserve Prediction Error Rate: 33% In Under 3 Months... Or 133%+ Annualized
Today, Sandra Pianalto, president of the most irrelevant Fed in the US, the Cleveland one, confirmed why when it comes to economic predictions, one may want to take anything uttered by the rocket scientists at the Fed with a pinch of salt... and why in general anytime an economist speaks it is best to run away. Specifically, in her prepared remarks to whoever it is that is dumb enough to listen, she just said that she expects the US economy to grow by 2% in 2011. Funny, because a simple google search reveals the following glaring headline from those long ago days of June 1, 2011...
So... from 3% to 2% in 11 weeks - a 33% change in forecast in under 3 months, or well over 133% annualized... And these are the clueless astrologists that not only determine our monetary policy, but tells savers to buy a lot of vaseline for the next 2 years as that's the only thing they will need in an environment in which the interest rate on their savings is zero until "mid-2013"
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Is it just me or do predictions really just mean "what they want" to happen? This applies not to the FED but every other oracle out there making predictions?
Why did God create economists?
To make weather men look good.
Bu-dum-dum.
Disclaimer: This joke excludes economists of the Austrian School
"or 133%+ Annualized" ???
Shame on you TD. Percentages are not additive. You of all people should know this!
Close enough for government work, I guess.
There's a reason why she wasn't a Physics major.
or Math major!
If I use a millimeter scale I'm hung like a horse.
Lies may work for a while but sooner or later reality sets in and word gets out.
But, she has a PH.D!
will 3% nominal pay back debt, allow consumption to resume, housing to bloom, employment to zoom. Not if imports cream the market.
She is just "jumping the shark" with Ferolli and all the others. She has a right to change her mind just as much as Wall Street.
Imaginary money thrown at imaginary problems
The extend and pretend is the only thing standing between them and the pitchforks ... and ... they know it.
I am long pitch fork manufacturers.
Idaho Supreme Court has ruled that the Sixth Amendment of the US Constitution no longer applies within the boundary of Idaho
http://www.free-edgar-steele.com/?p=484
Can you smell the freedom? At least we have dropped the veil that we DO have a rule of law.
pods
They should just STFU!
Please, don't mention vaseline to Zorba, it brings back bad memories.
When Zorba was a boy, his parents signed him up to be cabin boy on
a Greek vaseline tanker.
Gulp. I'm afraid of what this even means.
In all fairness there was that debt debacle and a dowgrade that materially affected both consumers and businesses alike. Do not think it is all her fault - need to take changing political landscape into consideration as well.
'Changing political landscape? OMG Give me a break Doode, it was all planned destruction. Anyone thinking these FED's are in there trying to do rescue and salvage operations on the purposely imploded US economy needs to wake up.
I do not think Fed had anything to do with both parties not being able to reach an entitlement reform agreement.
Spare me the humour!! The horse has not only bolted, but has already been processed into [Chinese] glue. It's a bit late for some minor adjustments to the barn door.....
You do understand, I hope, that all that extra debt from QE being shipped off to foreign banks is yet another new tax on American serfs?
Let's not allow anyone to take any accountability. Certainly the Federal Reserve for being downgraded in the first place...
Never believe what a central bankster says, same as going full retard.
Exibit A- Robotrader. Awarded Bernanke 'Hero of the New Millenium' and look at him now after going long at DOW 12,700.
Do not feel sorry for Robotrader. Doug Kass hired him as Chief Investment Officer. He is not permitted to post here any more.
Wish all the luck to Doug, gonna need it
Don't be mean...he's in the hospital for fiat's sake....something about an aneurysm while fellating James Altucher Monday morning.
Bull-tard fellation is scary
Those who engage should be wary
Just look at poor Doug
Who choked on James' rug
He should have known James would be hairy
Testing, testing, testing. A lead up to next weeks announcement of QEmongus.
Go ahead, I dare them! Gold - $4,000, USD 1/8th of 1 cent. Do it.
Just doing her part in the smoke and mirrors act.
Exactly, good cop/bad cop.
My granny grew up in the depression and used to say "Hoover said a car in every garage and 2 chickens in every pot". Next thing I knew we were walking and eating turnips.
I fully do NOT trust any gov't. period.
LOL exactly, theres no way out of here, when you come in youre in for good.
David Gilmore.
Actually, 33% over 11 weeks annualizes to 284%. Sandra, FTW
so the dept to GDP ratio....
3% assumed no QE3. Assuming QE3 drops growth from 3 to 2% as gas goes from $3.75 now to $5 by Xmas.
Either way, screwed. No one believes in the QE nonsense anymore it has turned from magic elixir to deadly poison.
Maybe she should pay a visit to the Betty Ford Center.
They help addicts, not idiots.
QE? Sorry, no ones buyin it anymore.
But go ahead Ben, hasten the total collapse, I wouldnt mind seeing my gold at $4,000 an oz at all, that would mean 1,000% investing success on my part in just over 3 years, something ass hat 'guru' Buffet cant even claim even with his insider trading style.
Agreed.
SheepDog-One,
If I comment again today on Zero Hedge it's going to be ask slewie the pi-rat a question regarding one of his comments yesterday. Included in that comment is going to be a reference to you. I welcome your feedback on the upcoming question as well. Look for it and have a great day dude.
I only pay attention to what the Fed has to say just to see what the other side is doing.
"So, clearly, I cannot choose the wine in front of you." - Vizzini
When you think about it, do you think she is really sitting around pouring over months and trends of economic data and applying forecasting scenarios to come up what she believes will happen. More likely she just parrots whatever the consensus is with a couple of talking points to create the impression of sound reasoning. Like most other economists.
I know your pain Tyler. They get paid so much and they provide so little. Why didn't I care about acquiring power and position when I was young? Well, I did care about obtaining position, but I was far happier when she assumed the power.
They should stop predicting and start focusing solely on activity where they are really good such as printing for example.
The forecast has always been 2% and has never been 3%. Also, we have always been at war with Eurasia and have never been at war with East Asia.
Thank you,
The Ministry of Truth
...prophetic strong delusion ...Bitchez. lol
The phenomena is called Obama speak.
I'm sure the US Treasury gives them a run for their money. BTW, what revenue projection decrease is the "new" economic environment going to render to the "budget deficit deal"?
What was the over/under on the next breach of the "ceiling"? 4Q2012?