Federal Reserve Prediction Error Rate: 33% In Under 3 Months... Or 133%+ Annualized
Today, Sandra Pianalto, president of the most irrelevant Fed in the US, the Cleveland one, confirmed why when it comes to economic predictions, one may want to take anything uttered by the rocket scientists at the Fed with a pinch of salt... and why in general anytime an economist speaks it is best to run away. Specifically, in her prepared remarks to whoever it is that is dumb enough to listen, she just said that she expects the US economy to grow by 2% in 2011. Funny, because a simple google search reveals the following glaring headline from those long ago days of June 1, 2011...
So... from 3% to 2% in 11 weeks - a 33% change in forecast in under 3 months, or well over 133% annualized... And these are the clueless astrologists that not only determine our monetary policy, but tells savers to buy a lot of vaseline for the next 2 years as that's the only thing they will need in an environment in which the interest rate on their savings is zero until "mid-2013"
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