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Fed's Advice On Trading The Sun's Moodiness

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While we have unapologetically highlighted some of the incredible taxpayer-funded research undertaken by the Fed such as "Why water is wet?" and "Why the sky is blue?", this little gem from the Atlanta Fed takes the proverbial biscuit: "Playing the Field: Geomagnetic Storms and the Stock Market". While there are undoubtedly correlations and the physics of tidal and geomagnetic effects are clear on human brains that are 78% water, the advice is fascinating: "Specifically, people affected by geomagnetic storms may be more inclined to sell stocks on stormy days because they incorrectly attribute their bad mood to negative economic prospects rather than bad environmental conditions."

 

Unusually high levels of geomagnetic activity have a negative, statistically and economically significant effect on the following week's stock returns for all U.S. stock market indices.

 

Atlanta Fed SunSpot Paper

 

History sometimes repeats, history often rhymes. By studying the past, we can predict the future. These are often-quoted trading philosophies, with W.D. Gann’s work on time cycles centralizing this repetition. What I have attempted to demonstrate is that natural cycles of the sun, namely sunpots, geomagnetism and lunar illumination, are a key underlying cause of these patterns. From growth, inflation, demographics and asset cycles, to sentiment, stock market seasonality and waveform, we see solar phenomena and their influence on humans driving cyclical patterns that repeat over time.

For even more recent detail on Trading The Sun, here is John Hampson of SolarCycles.net:

Trading the Sun

 

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Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:26 | 2236889 Fidel Sarcastro
Fidel Sarcastro's picture

Sounds bullish...then again, so would the sun turning into a red dwarf. Everything is bullish.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:35 | 2236925 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

Wow you can't make this nonsense up.

 

http://jimrickards.blogspot.com/

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:45 | 2236967 CClarity
CClarity's picture

Conjuring up Icarus - watch your feathers and wax and fiat formations.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:49 | 2236983 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Bernankcarus flew too close to the sun on wings made from the Fed's balance sheet!

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 16:02 | 2237006 redpill
redpill's picture

"Specifically, people affected by geomagnetic storms"

People? PEOPLE? What people? There are no people anymore in this farce of an HFT algo circle jerk. Are the machines in a bad mood you dumb effers?

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 18:34 | 2237535 Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

People programmed the algos and maybe some programmers read this article.  Wall Street is Googled now.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 18:48 | 2237572 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

That's actually a decent article, if even Fight Club's been covering this (and at how much deeper the rabbit hole goes; e.g. dark pools, insider networks, search aggregating) for some time.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 16:12 | 2237014 redpill
redpill's picture

double

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:49 | 2236988 Fukushima Sam
Fukushima Sam's picture

Forget snow, sunspots will be the new input to the BLS seasonal adjustments.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:51 | 2237782 nmewn
nmewn's picture

I was affected by the solar flare today.

It gave me "progressive" thoughts and my tin foil hat melted to my scalp...I had a full head of hair yesterday...which reminds me...why aren't hair transplants "free" ;-)

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:56 | 2237796 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Weaves are IF your name is Donald and can kick some models digits. ;)

I got a bit flared too.  My foil meltdown is up and a thanks backatcha

See ya around

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 18:44 | 2237558 Dugald
Dugald's picture

Any chance that one of these two authors will change their name to Akhenaten? it would fit right in.....

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:46 | 2236975 metastar
metastar's picture

And they call conspiracy theorists crazy??

Protect the markets. Tin foil hats for everyone!

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 16:28 | 2237075 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Wrap your whole body in the tin foil and you will not be effected by the geomagnetic effects---thereby gaining an edge on the market.

Bullish for foil.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 18:04 | 2237448 q99x2
q99x2's picture

If you put tin foil in your beard with an antenna on top of your hat you will get better WiFi connectivity.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:47 | 2236978 metastar
metastar's picture

And they call conspiracy theorists crazy??

Protect the markets. Tin foil hats for everyone!

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:50 | 2237768 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

The Fed protecting markets???

these goons are working on space activity effecting stock markets when Benny can't see a property bubble coming, when it pops he denies it's going to be that bad and when it hits rock bottom he's left scurrying around his rat hole for 'solutions' to the problem he said would never occur

these academic goons are only worth their weight in Fed research papers (ie. worthless)

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:44 | 2236958 resurger
resurger's picture

What's the Sun Ticker?

Wait..have they announced the IPO on the Sun stocks or not ye?

GS value the Sun at $1,000,000,0000,0000,0000,0000,0000,0000,000,0000,000,000,000,000,0000,0000,0000,0000,0000,0000,0000,0000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

And its Private

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 16:34 | 2237104 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

I've bought some swaps--I'm going to be one RICH motherfucker when the sun explodes and wipes out Earth!

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:46 | 2236963 resurger
resurger's picture

DP sorry

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:46 | 2236890 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Bernanke & Syndicate are using solar flare events as an excuse to skew the official data?

 

 

I would expect nothing less from these mountebanks of fractional reserve banking and Chartalism!

 

*moun·te·bank/mountibaNGk/ Noun:

  1. A person who deceives others, esp. in order to trick them out of their money; a charlatan.
  2. A person who sold patent medicines in public places.
    Synonyms: charlatan - quack - impostor More info »Dictionary.com - Answers.com - Merriam-Webster - The Free Dictionary

Used in a sentence:  When you look for the word mountebank in the encyclopedia, you will find Ben S. Bernanke's picture. Ben S. Bernanke; The Lost Bee Gee (photo)

 

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:26 | 2236891 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

END THE FED

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:33 | 2236914 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

Until then....
Don't fight the Fed (with your fiat)!
And get long mortgages. DMO, DLTNX in order of risk & return. Perhaps DBL, but maybe too fresh.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:28 | 2236893 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Shouldn't there be an epic move today???

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:34 | 2236918 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Um, last I checked computers are Si based, not H2O.

Regards,

Cooter

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 16:40 | 2237124 Vint Slugs
Vint Slugs's picture

No, the article says "the following week".  So sell today and cover on next week's dip!

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:27 | 2236894 Marge N. Callz
Marge N. Callz's picture

Fed's next objective is to make the sun shine every day, then they won't need more QE.  That'll work better than sterilized bonds!

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:27 | 2236895 czarangelus
czarangelus's picture

A dog left shit on the lawn of my apartment complex, and now I no longer feel safe keeping my savings in the bank denominated in US dollars.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 18:19 | 2237482 Dugald
Dugald's picture

Thats the kind of thinking that once built a great nation which went on to, oh, errr hmm....well it was shapeing up to be a good quote, then reality crept in and err......sigh.....You guys read any good books of late?

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 06:46 | 2238999 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

"The Creature From Jekyll Island, a Second Look at the Federal System",  5th Ed., G. Edward Griffin, ISBN:  978-0-912986-45-6

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:28 | 2236897 Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

This is a more logical method than what Citi or Goldman uses

 

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:31 | 2236904 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

no...no...no...no...no more.....give me the fuckin mushroom clouds and let new flowers sprout.....

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:28 | 2236898 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Blame it on the rain (rain)
Blame it on the stars (stars)
Whatever you do don't put the blame on you

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NwrL9MV6jSk

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:36 | 2236928 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

yeah, Rob Pilatus (a product of the teutonic MSM giant Franz Reuther aka Frank Farian) is up there fighting for crappiest non-singer.

Right along with the Falco dude:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16LSjokboFU

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:29 | 2236899 death_to_fed_tyranny
death_to_fed_tyranny's picture

Are these FUCKERS serious? God I hope another X-5 Flare creates another Carrington Event. BLOW SUN! BLOW!

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:31 | 2236901 non_anon
non_anon's picture

same as "animal spirits" at work a la Keynesianism

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:31 | 2236902 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I'm going to miss this shit just a little after the crash.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:31 | 2236903 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Oh my God! They are monetizing the sun.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:41 | 2237944 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Reverend Moon will be a fed governor next

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:32 | 2236906 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

EVERYBODY OUT OF THE POOL!!!!!

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:33 | 2236907 Ostapuk Ivano
Ostapuk Ivano's picture

Has anyone been watching Bloomberg? GiGi Stone's rack is enormous! Must be due to solar flare...

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 17:22 | 2236995 Death and Gravity
Death and Gravity's picture

dupe, ignore or mods delete please

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 17:22 | 2236997 Death and Gravity
Death and Gravity's picture

dupe, ignore or mods delete please

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 17:22 | 2236999 Death and Gravity
Death and Gravity's picture

dupe, ignore or mods delete please

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 17:21 | 2237292 Death and Gravity
Death and Gravity's picture

Pics or it didn't happen.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:32 | 2236910 kito
kito's picture

“It is well that the people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.”

--Ford Motor Co. Founder Henry Ford

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:33 | 2236915 t_kAyk
t_kAyk's picture

i wonder what their outlook is on the arrival of planet x?

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:35 | 2236922 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I'll just burn that little report right along with my remaining fiat for warmth here in the near future.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:37 | 2236932 Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

PEAK SOLAR STORMS, BITCHEZ!

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:37 | 2236934 asteroids
asteroids's picture

What utter useless crap from the FED. This isn't science. No wonder things are so screwed up.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 18:28 | 2237519 Dugald
Dugald's picture

But, but, but an American wrote it, it must be true, why won't you believe, aw come on....say you are just funning, and it really is true? hey guys, come on, please?

 

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:39 | 2236935 vegas
vegas's picture

This just in: Mercury is trine Saturn and Mars is in conjunction to the Moon. What doe it mean? Buy ES unless it goes down; sell ES unless it goes up. Return to normal HFT programming. WTF.

 

Http://vegasxau.blogspot.com

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:39 | 2236940 soopy
soopy's picture

Wait, what?

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:40 | 2236946 youngman
youngman's picture

That explains why women sell once a month....Bitches

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:43 | 2236957 t_kAyk
t_kAyk's picture

it attracts bears, you know... 

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:44 | 2236960 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Those bloody events are lunar, not solar.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:41 | 2236949 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

if you thought it was their purpose to level the playing field, so that markets and market participants would have a level playing field and see the field, then you might be able to take this seriously.(i understand that Bernanke has privately villified Greenspan for the Y2K debacle) and the ridiculous tirades from his predecessor, insisting the US develop Natural Gas to become energy self reliant, or to imcrease immigration to provide workers for the new manufacturing jobs that he imagined would be created. economies are now sustained with monetary policy, consumer spending, and a complete eradication of fear or otherwise empirial obstacles to abstract linear growth in money supply and new product development without inflationary offsets in labor or commodities.

the real world no longer matters. its amazing when you consider how far we have come since AG stepped aside, (considered by some at the time to be the second most evil man on the planet) where does that put these guys.??

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:42 | 2236953 vintageyz
vintageyz's picture

That explains it.  The gravitational pull on the Fed douche bags must be enormous and effect their decision making process.  QE3 Summers Eve.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 16:12 | 2237018 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

....which reminds me, maybe a tuna melt for lunch today?

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:43 | 2236954 Burr's 2nd Shot
Burr's 2nd Shot's picture

And here I was, thinking the only thing missing at ZH is a horoscope page.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:42 | 2236955 Sutton
Sutton's picture

Fed Atlanta=Equities in Dallas

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:44 | 2236959 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

Cycle 24 has been extraordinarily quiescent. A couple of decent X-flares won't change that.

http://sidc.oma.be/html/wolfjmms.html

http://sidc.oma.be/KalmanOutputs/SMCM/Current/figKFSMCM.jpg

Sunspots are not well understood yet, so that should appeal to those that like to fill in the gaps with tortured myth.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:45 | 2236964 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

I seem to remember something in logic about correlation and causality... now what was it...?

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:57 | 2236992 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

From Wiki:

In statistics, a spurious relationship (or, sometimes, spurious correlation or spurious regression) is a mathematical relationship in which two events or variables have no direct causal connection, yet it may be wrongly inferred that they do, due to either coincidence or the presence of a certain third, unseen factor (referred to as a "confounding factor" or "lurking variable"). 

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 18:34 | 2237534 Dugald
Dugald's picture

And to that I am compelled to add:- Bigger Better Resistors Or Your Grid Bias Voltage Goes West....

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:47 | 2236977 Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

Federal Reserve Bank_Fringe Division

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 15:51 | 2236990 blindchicken
blindchicken's picture

One law I have found and for which you never will find a counterexample:

There is no upper bound for stupidity.

Nevertheless, to see this law in action still leaves me flabbergasted often.

 

 

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 16:28 | 2237000 Normalcy Bias
Normalcy Bias's picture

<edited dbl post> ZH went apeshit for a few minutes. Must have been solar flare radiation...

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 16:13 | 2237003 Normalcy Bias
Normalcy Bias's picture

The sun? The SUN?! The Atlanta Fed should be ashamed. Thank God the NY Fed is at least wise enough to get their forecasts from Miss Cleo...

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 16:03 | 2237009 Shleprock
Shleprock's picture

Storm sewer

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 16:14 | 2237024 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

first sign of a solar flare is abrupt appearance of double postings on economic blogs

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 16:03 | 2237010 Shleprock
Shleprock's picture

Storm sewer

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 16:05 | 2237012 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

That would be very useful information if people were still the ones driving market trades.

 

The real study should be made on how solar flares impact the algo's driving the HFT trading programs which account for most of today's volume.

 

Someone needs to point out to these guys they studied something from our ancient past which is no longer applicable and of no use in today's HFT driven markets with 100% asset correlations.

 

Now, as purely a layman in these matters of physics, it would appear that a large enough solar flare could very well impact the HFTs. In fact perhaps we should chart solar flare activity against the market's flash crashes...there might be a correlation here relating to both timing and magnitude, though I leave that to those with phd's to determine.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:23 | 2237671 New World Chaos
New World Chaos's picture

My kooky grandma has been known to pull money out due to paranoia about solar flares scrambling all the computers.  The statistically significant effect might come from people like her (assuming that this whole thing isn't some bullshit Fed psyops or distraction).  I am 99% sure the effect itself is bullshit for both people and computers.  Solar storms can crash satellites because they aren't protected by Earth's atmosphere or magnetic field.  Major solar storms can shut down power grids that are both sparse and close to a magnetic pole.  Happened in Canada.  Didn't scramble computers as far as I know.  If the power surge gets through the surge protectors it would probably cause burnouts and Blue Screens of Death rather than a subtle munging of the algorithm.

Didn't junk you.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:11 | 2237848 Umh
Umh's picture

Did she make money? Everything else is irrelvant!

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 21:59 | 2238220 New World Chaos
New World Chaos's picture

She partially avoided the Crash of '08 due to paranoia about the Sun.  She has a history of being right for the wrong reasons.  Certainly doing better than could be expected for someone who uses a professional investment advisor (though that's not saying very much).

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 16:13 | 2237023 Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture

 

"The most important thing to most buyers is the financial stability of a neighborhood," says Leisa Frye, a Realtor with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Metro Brokers in Roswell, Ga. "Buyers want to make sure their home won't be worth less in the future, so while they are focused on getting a good deal, they are looking for some control over not losing value in the future. They want a discount on already low prices as an insurance against potential declining value."

Read more: Buyers Want Homes That Maintain Value | Bankrate.com http://www.bankrate.com/finance/real-estate/buyers-want-homes-that-maintain-value.aspx#ixzz1oYfM9Zui Wait a few years and grab a houise 50% lower.
Thu, 03/08/2012 - 16:18 | 2237037 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Lets see if I got that right....so she is saying don't buy a former crack house in the ghetto even if the price looks low?

 

Now that cerainly never would have crossed anyone's mind....what sage advice.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 16:55 | 2237193 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

If it's the worst crack-house in the 'hood and you're willing to build a bit of sweat equity, I wouldn't write off the idea.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 16:18 | 2237036 oogs66
oogs66's picture

They should only do Pomo on rainy days

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 16:53 | 2237178 darteaus
darteaus's picture
  1. Sunspots cycles determine sun output.
  2. Sun output affects weather.
  3. Weather affects crops.
  4. Abundance/Lack of food affects mood.
Thu, 03/08/2012 - 17:02 | 2237222 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

Only the machines break when the sun rips a geomagnetic fart. 

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 18:21 | 2237495 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Impeachment docs are being drawn up to impeach Obama for treason today. Susposedly it is in response to Pinneta verifying and Obama saying that the US military takes its orders from the UN and not the US congress.

Traitors commit treason in public

Probably won't get a research grant on how that might affect the market because it is the bankers that made the takeover of the US possible.

Chaulk another one up for the NWO.

Heck I thought maybe we had a chance to end the Fed but to end the Armed forces, DHS, FEMA, TSA CIA FBI the executive branch and all that may be a little much.

But as this plays out lots of powerful people are going to lose everything and that is where I have hope. Maybe the elites that are about to get pillaged and raped can get together to enforce the laws..

It does seem that with the passage of NDAA that the bankers are preparing to pull a Greece/Lybia/Iraq on the US.

Santelli says inflation for people on a tight budget is 8%. A year or two and hunger will bring about change in any case.

Think sailboat.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:17 | 2237860 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

  Impeachment docs are being drawn up to impeach Obama for treason today.

That's some funny shit right there, man.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:42 | 2237949 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Next thing we'll see is former fed staffers writing self help books and appearing on Oprah to sling it

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 23:06 | 2238380 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Fagetaboutit. 60% of all HFT operations have probably already built this into their algos.

Sun, 07/22/2012 - 21:18 | 2641443 alicejl
alicejl's picture

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