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Feel The Squeeze

Tyler Durden's picture





 

As financials and builders (and implicitly markets in general) levitate further, Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors takes a brief and somewhat sarcastic look at the factors that are supporting the rally.

Strong auctions helping.  We forget March 2010 Greek auctions and August 2011 auctions. flippers and short covering or real change of risk tolerance?

Greek PSI rumors helping. Watching the sausage being made might turn you off sausage for awhile.

Financials and the bonds of financials are really strong. Europe in particular. Finally!! LTRO 1.0 should have helped these the most from the start.

Cheap nat gas - great for now - but does the drilling slow down affecting jobs and pipes?  I think a rebound in nat gas prices would actually be good.

IMF going to manufacture 500 billion?  From where? Who has that money for them?

Debt ceiling? Who needs a debt ceiling when we had the foresight to include loopholes in the pension plans letting them get iou's of iou's rather than just iou's.

Jobs data was great but let's see how it plays out and fewer people getting laid off that qualify for benefits is not the same as new jobs.

80% of drivers say they are better than average drivers. Home builders, all building homes and long stock options, say conditions are improving.

Weak bank earnings - largely ignored.

It feels like we are in the last stages of a move the exact inverse of last week. We sold off ahead of the downgrade rumors and then the market bought the news. This rally seems overdone now and any "news" is likely to provide a nice little sell trigger.

 


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Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:12 | Link to Comment Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

load up on spy puts, it might take a shit after 12pm

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:15 | Link to Comment nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

There is no free market - period.

 

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:21 | Link to Comment Richard Chesler
Richard Chesler's picture

Rally is over when the criminals say it's over.

 

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:32 | Link to Comment curbyourrisk
curbyourrisk's picture

So long as the .gov is not willing to arrest and indict ANYONE (hint - Corzine) it ain't ever gonna be over.  Too much profit in fraud...

 

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:46 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Perhaps the problem is simple. Where do the arrests begin? The list of the seriously guilty is a mile long and 10 wide.

And this squeeze is still just a water testing squeeze.

Watch the Super Bowl date or thereabouts for a flood. Of liquidity? or just plain old water...

By the way, did anyone catch the story of the Costa Concordina haveign 13 Decks, one for each EU nation. Not a good sign.

 

ori

/shattering-midass-curse-gold-de-spell-ed/

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:51 | Link to Comment Thomas
Thomas's picture

The criminals own the courts. This ends when the system collapses, not sooner.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 13:32 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

It ends when prices fall "instead of rising like I guaranteed all my billionaire friends."

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 13:38 | Link to Comment xcehn
xcehn's picture

Might makes right, and those in power write history.  Accordingly, we (the dissidents) are the criminals that the police state merely tolerates until they deem it necessary to declare us enemies of state and legally torture, imprison, and/or disappear us.  That is the only foreseeable end.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 13:30 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Sure. Let's start phucktard Petey here! "Whadya mean he's another New York Phuck nut ginning for higher prices/higher rates and higher rents?" suck my dick, Petey! Be like the rest of the clowns down there and buy a politician!

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 13:23 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I stated here about a week or so ago, that one reason I was holding on to my position in BAC, from $5.76, was that I intuited that it would come out with a surprise earnings report. This is now the news today, it did come out with a surprise earnings report; I'm up 40% on the trade. Logging into this blog is a strange experience today; reality is completely ignored and I'm welcomed to a world in which the stock market is going to crash "faster than I can take profits". It's a kind of a little alternate universe for people who know nothing about markets.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 17:25 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Picking up pennies in front of a steamroller can work --- for a while.

Eventually, though, you are either going to trip, or the steamroller is going to unexpectedly accelerate --- and you won't be around in either case to brag about your "winnings" any longer.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:11 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

one of my friends called my today, angry as hell that I told him not the buy stocks right now, and now he missed....

and whenever you explain it like: Just wait a few weeks and.... you've lost them.

People don't give a rats ass about indicators. Green is buy, red is sell. It will never change...

 

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:13 | Link to Comment Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

tell him to shut up and buy gold.  he shouldn't be trading this market unless he is a pro

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:23 | Link to Comment seek
seek's picture

Pros shouldn't be trading in this market. No one should be. A professional gambler won't play in a house with rigged games.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:35 | Link to Comment NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

The trade is watching the headlines and then putting your money on black or red...and then doing it all over again tomorrow...there are no more fundamentals when they have been propped up as they were for the last 15 years by government and are being propped again to keep this afloat...Can you IMAGINE what the economy would do once rates start going up...just imagine how quick the housing collapse is as EVERY SINGLE refi dries up and everyone else will be waiting for the downturn in rates again...Oil seems very settled in at $100 and $4/gal...make this $6 gal and that is $2000-$3000 out of the average $49K family's pocket...this game is over but it likely to be a slow deterioration, a loss of standard of living, less disposable income and a dawning "what happened" 10 years from now as investment, child, corporate, mortgage tax breaks are gone, jobs continue to move overseas and the retired try to unload the only equity they can tap to move to cities that don't have such high heating bills...

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 14:49 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Wrong on both counts; a professional gambler will work the rig. Research it.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:23 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

And by 'pro' you mean someone with inside information or a person frontrunning a rumor.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:28 | Link to Comment Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

"Pro".... short for "Program"

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:27 | Link to Comment Hober Mallow
Hober Mallow's picture

comemielda, not easy task. could not convince an acquaintance not to buy italian bonds, i mean, how stupid can you be to do something like that?

some people just deserve what they get.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:25 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I don't give advice to people I know unless I am totally cornered.  And then I tell them that I don't want to know what they do with it.  My advice is always the same.  Break out the money printing and debt figures.  Then show them the math on where physical gold and silver should be in relation, and where they will be when the paper bubble implodes.  Tell them what happens historically during and after large monetary inflations to stocks, bonds, and hard money PMs.  Most people you show the facts to understand immediately, despite what CNBC spews all day and all night.  Stocks will get crushed when the printing stops.  Bonds will be worthless.  Gold will remain the baseline to allow you to make it into the next system after printing stops and all paper dies.

The thing about stocks is that they can do very well in hyper inflation.  It is after the printing stops and they fix the money that truth is revealed.  Even in Zimbabwe, they closed the exchanges down for a long time during a bank holiday at the end.  When they reopened, after being locked in, you were fkd.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:22 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I dont tell people not to buy, I just tell people to go ahead and buy all the stocks you want if you insist doing so, but dont come crying to me when youre wiped out one morning soon.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 13:22 | Link to Comment AustriAnnie
AustriAnnie's picture

but when it happens all they will remember was something about you telling them to buy and that you advised them to run to you crying if they lose everything

People have short term memory when it comes to such a thing.  When time comes to say "see, I told you so" they can't remember you saying it in the first place, or they distort what you said according to their psychological need to avoid admitting a mistake.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 14:46 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Definetely. Anything is better is than admitting you were wrong; this is "standard" psychology. A small minority are glad to find they were wrong, and why; they are the educatable ones.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:30 | Link to Comment Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Tell him the timing is perfect to buy TZA or FAZ.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 13:34 | Link to Comment B-rock
B-rock's picture

Nice timing.  There is awesome money in 30-second to 5-minute TZA/TNA trades all day long... Who cares what the market does?  Being too long or too short is too scary (and unwise).

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:41 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

The right red is buy. How to tell when the red is 'right'? I need a better crystal ball. Gold looks good right now. The last couple weeks the small raids to drive the price down to the bottom of the channel have been followed by one day surges to the top the channel about $30-40 north. If it happens again those 5 cent GLD calls will be in the money tomorrow. Of course on expiration Friday who can guess what will happen.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 13:24 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

You friend is right; you should not have told him any such thing; because you don't know anything. twenty years of successful trading would mean you knew something; reading an internet blog does not mean you know anything.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:12 | Link to Comment BeerGoggles
BeerGoggles's picture

...except there will be no news. Risk FX bullish, commods bullish, market breakout to upside - this is going higher and you know it.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:17 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oh there WILL be 'news' again...there always is...and the ONLY reason to pump is for the ensuing dump.

I heard this same BS all over the place 'Well, theres no stopping us now all up from DOW 12,700 here, 14,000 easy by Xmas' 7 months ago.

Oops. Well remember the point of every pump is for the next planned dump...make no mistake, it is coming.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 13:18 | Link to Comment s2man
s2man's picture

SD1, I was going to write some sarc about your lack of faith and the great American financial system, but I just can't spin it like MDB.  Where is MDB when you need a good laugh?

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:24 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

OH and 1 more thing....watch out this time for 'the news' because its likely to be the 'MOAN' or mother of all news as we're watching a carrier keel-up in the Hormuz and nuclear retaliations going on. Then we'll just be seeing 'US markets closed until further notice'....you really dont want to be in that situation.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:12 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

'Debt ceiling? Who needs a debt ceiling when we had the foresight to include loopholes in the pension plans letting them get iou's of iou's rather than just iou's.'

I have wondered this myself. You're back to making more sense.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:15 | Link to Comment TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

Feels like a boost on QE3 hopes and ECB backstopping Italy and Spain debt hopes. If QE3 doesn't happen next Wednesday, the market may be awefully disappointed.

TheSilverJournal.com

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:18 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Why should QE3 actually happen when "expectations of QE3" is enough?

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 17:58 | Link to Comment TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

At some point all of those expectations will be worn out.

TheSilverJournal.com

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:18 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Sure, time for QE3 now that the Nasdaq just took out all-time highs. No need for QE, the carrot and stick works just fine on the full-retard stock markets!

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 14:43 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

QE3 is already up and running with a three pronged advance; the results are filtering down to the stock market. The Powers avoided mentioning anything inflammatory, like "QE"; but it has been put in place on the quiet. Some of this has been reported here on Zero Hedge.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 15:27 | Link to Comment Hohum
Hohum's picture

NASDAQ all time highs?  Is it the year 2000?  Is the index over 5,000?

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:23 | Link to Comment buckethead
buckethead's picture

No political will for more QE.

 

There will have to be new monickers for the next rounds of printing.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:25 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Or, there wont be any printing at all, and we head straight into kickoff of WW3, what theyve been building up to all along to solve all problems.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:32 | Link to Comment vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Political will?  They don't give a crap about politics.  'No disaster today' is all they care about.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:18 | Link to Comment nudlee
nudlee's picture

Santa could not come earlier due to illness but he is catching up with those big shiny presents (that were not priced in yet)

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:23 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The PWG has priced everything in....move along.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:24 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

So, WHAT? 

It's crooked as my schnauzer's hind leg but it works.  They get to legally rape the hell out of people and with the implicit consent of the SEC.

So, why not do it?  Give them credit.  It's sleezy and a parasite on the citizens but, seriously, these guys are known scum bags anyway. What's the surprise?

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:24 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

I see no reason - none whatsoever - why the markets can't keep going up and up and up for the next month or so.

News? Fundamentals?

Like those have mattered since March 2009.

If I had a Bennie Buck for every time I've heard "just one more rally, then..." or "this is THE top" in the past three years, I'd be retired, not collecting unemployment.

Bitchez!

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:27 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'1 more month'? Maybe...we'll see.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:36 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And actually we DID have a pretty good 'hit' from news only a few months ago....remember the DOW falling 1,200 in 1 week just over 1 quarter ago?

I guess not many do.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:26 | Link to Comment istt
istt's picture

Anyone claiming they can say where this market is heading is not credible.  No one knows where it is heading, not even the Fed or GS.  The Dow could hit 14K in the next two months or we could be falling below the October lows of 10.4.  Trade accordingly, if at all.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:30 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Exactly, no one has a clue what will happen tomorrow, because we are not the Central Planners and we do not get to see their script.

But 1 thing IS known....one morning they WILL wipe out retail in a huge grab...no question about it.

So....are all you retail geniuses really faster than their HFT supercomputers?  

 

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:37 | Link to Comment rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

The market will go off the cliff when the HFT algos are perfected....once they can read beyond headlines and actually analyze the content, they will all be selling at once.........

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:40 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And at that point, the HFT computers will also be building T-1 Terminator cyborgs evenings and weekends as well.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:43 | Link to Comment Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Yeah thats exactly whats going to happen, all those excessive performances will be wiped out one morning, so fast and furiously that most people wont have a chance to get out. and even if they do get out, it will be at a price much lower than what they thought they would....flash crash style. Thats when the wall street vultures licks their chops and steps in to pick off the retail's desperation to stampede out of the markets and make another killing.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:29 | Link to Comment Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

I think the sarcasm is just about fully priced in.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:35 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Actually what this is telling me with this level of all-out full retardation in manipulating these markets up so desperately is theyre trying to hide something VERY big going on underneath it all.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:36 | Link to Comment DavidC
DavidC's picture

"This rally seems overdone now and any "news" is likely to provide a nice little sell trigger."

I hope so...

DavidC

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:39 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I cant believe for a minute 'big boys' are loading up here long....they MUST be setting up short. Pump to dump...only game in town.

And for those who say we never have dumped....just recall the DOW falling big time from 12,700 only last fall....everyone forgot that already?

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:58 | Link to Comment Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

Don't be ridiculous we all know the DJIA only goes up...with the help of yanking bankrupt companies and inserting new ones.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 13:03 | Link to Comment kralizec
kralizec's picture

Lumbergh under a sheep!  Ewe!

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:42 | Link to Comment RaymondKHessel
RaymondKHessel's picture

Bonds and stocks both at highs? Something as to give. Looks like bonds are giving back some finally...

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:45 | Link to Comment Jeanne dArc
Jeanne dArc's picture

Lloyds-TSB up 10% today. Makes me feel rather vindicated for this post, which earned me a tonne of abuse at the time...

Oh, and no, I'm not a Bankster Shill, before you ask...

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 17:31 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Congratulations on your winnings from gambling in the corrupt and grossly rigged casino in which most bets pay the house.  Less and less of us, though, are willing to gamble our savings in that skewed and doomed-to-collapse game.  Fuck the so-called "markets".

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 13:40 | Link to Comment Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

The last half hour euro stock market ramp has manifested again as usual-you could set an atomic clock to it.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:55 | Link to Comment Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

http://www.builderonline.com/builder-pulse/single-family-starts-up--multi--down-----total-2011-is-the-worst.aspx?cid=BP:011912:JUMP

2011 worst on record for home building.  Been down so  long, it looks like up to me. In my book, there are modest signs of improvement, which may presage genuine improvement over the next 2 years.  Is it time to place the bet? Maybe.  But the headwinds are still strong, demand sluggish, mortgages all federal and still hard to get, and this may be a case of the market looking too distantly forward.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 20:03 | Link to Comment dugorama
dugorama's picture

Ned:

You could always climb on REITs (late).

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 13:41 | Link to Comment Georgesblog
Georgesblog's picture

"All game pieces, including tokens, currency, Houses, Hotels, Deeds and the Game Board are property of the Bank. At the conclusion of the game, a winner is determined and all game apparatus is returned to the box." In this real life fraud, "returned to the box" has a very sinister meaning.

http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/11/02/the-daily-climb-2/

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 14:02 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

This is a zombie market. Broken, corrupt and useless. 

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 14:54 | Link to Comment jdelano
jdelano's picture

In my day 800 on the SAT sucked balls and meant you were a retard.  Good to see that hasn't really changed...

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 15:03 | Link to Comment satan2liberals
satan2liberals's picture

2 more weeks at this short squeeze rate and I'm wiped out.

I hope I can hold on long enough for reality to seep back into the markets. 

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 15:16 | Link to Comment ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Crowd here has been calling TEOTWAWKI since 666.  Obviously smart money posts somewhere else.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!