A Few More FaceBook Numbers

Tyler Durden's picture

Up until 26 minutes ago, $38.00 was the most important number for Facebook. That is no longer the case. Below, courtesy of Grant Stevens and Things That Make You Go Hmm are a few more numbers that readers may be interested in.

h/t @MCFutures

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Thisson's picture

They will become a "Bank Holding Company" ?

boogerbently's picture

.....with an IPO  :)

....Oh, you mean as a company.....for investors.....?????

GMadScientist's picture

Make their broken default privacy settings in China?

Lay off every employee?

Get "bought" by Google?

 

The Alarmist's picture

"The $100B question is: how will facebook become profitable?"

They don't need to ... they are simply going to suck everyone in the productive part of society into their black hole so that profits will no longer matter.

Mercury's picture

How about: FB chart once everyone figures out they're paying a huge premium for AOL 2.0...

Seorse Gorog from that Quantum Entanglement Fund. alright_.-'s picture

Since we're wallowing in Facebook hit-pieces, is ZH going to remove their FB 'Like' button and their infernal tracking cookies? Go on. Don't be a hypocrite.

 

I doubt it though since Gollum hates and loves the Precious.

gaoptimize's picture

I for one never said Facebook is worthless.  There is some fraction of the population that will always find intense and broad social networking of value, and as long as they can keep their inovators happy, and successfully integrate new features with existing ones, the majority of those people will ignore the privacy considerations and stay loyal (many having invested hundreds of hours archiving photos and memories on Facebook, much like scrap books).  There will be an advertising model that will work with this demographic and some premium services will sell.  But they will need to continuously inovate, buy, and adapt to "the next big thing" which will be expensive, or become MySpace.  Management and luck will determine if it is worth $5B or $20B.

falak pema's picture

Mark the suger sucker, just married honeymooner,  says he doesn't care about Facebook business value more about its SOCIAL value; is MArk the USA's first socialist Oligarch? 

The Shootist's picture

No wonder he gives his bro 'the Long Legged Mack Daddy' such mad props all the time...

Crispy's picture

L O FUCKING L....

Crispy's picture

whoever junked me is long and strong...L O FUCKING L...

tawse57's picture

It is just a website isn't it? I mean, what is so special about it?

prains's picture

it makes narcissism quaint and fun, sounds like it should work for a lot of people

Elio Costa's picture

The timing for standalone Facebook IPO was its best. From now on it's short sellers time to engage, until FB merges with MSOFT or someone else

AmazingLarry's picture

Got my stop in a tick below $0.00

SheepDog-One's picture

Govt and CIA Corp's will now be VERY angry at the peasants.

RacerX's picture

I was wondering how long it'd take for someone to put out a Hitler rant on the FB IPO.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzVEK2QcdSw

 

YesWeKahn's picture

Unlike Apple, FB has no chinese love.

chinaguy's picture

yer right about that....neither Facebook or YouTube are accessible in China

chinaguy's picture

ooof - down 4% in pre-market trading

writingsonthewall's picture

Let me tell you why Facebook is doomed.

 

A friend of mine makes internet sites for small businesses - and a few weeks ago he was showing me how he puts them together.

They all want this 'social media' thing - so they have the usual twitter and facebook 'friends' to show satisfied customers.

The thing is YOU BUY these accounts, for a few $'s you can have 500 instant 'friends'. These accounts have no real people behind them, they are just dummy accounts.

 

They all claim to have 'real targetted fans' - but I have seen the accounts sent from one of these companies - they are all fake, not a single one was real. There was one Arab lady with the name 'Mark Davies'!!

Facebook include these accounts in their 900 Million users. They will NEVER click an advert, NEVER play a facebook game and NEVER engage in any pay activity with facebook.

Here is an example

http://gettyfans.com/services/facebook-marketing-services/facebook-fans-...

The numbers are bullshit - check out the link and see for yourself - or go searching - they are not too hard to find.

Centurion9.41's picture

So let me get this straight, we are supposed to believe a liar?

The point to the question, and not denying what you point out is going on, there is no way to verify athe claims by comanies in the social media space that do not charge a fee for membership other than their revenue lines.

On a significant # level, I think non-bought IDs are a bigger impact. For example, most people have more than one email account and savvy Internet/tech users often have several. And they make them for specific periods for specific purposes. That's why companies like Yahoo! have "business" accounts where for ~35/yr anyone can have an unlimited number of email accounts that all go to one address.

So go crazy, discount the users by 20%. It's still a huge number.

Marketing, as a profession, is 50% lies....

CrashX's picture

Uhm... Global marketing, well just like anything else global, is 100% lies. Been there, lied about it.

writingsonthewall's picture

Who is a liar? - me?

All I know is I know these accounts exist - which means the facebook estimates of users is wrong - in fact MORE wrong as many people have multiple accounts.

The difference with 'people having multiple accounts' is they are not being created on an industrial scale!!

Fake google, yahoo and other accounts do exist - and I suspect they too are somewhat 'over-egged' - but the difference is the scale and the purpose for doing it.

Social media IS different - I've never been to a website promoting it's "over 500 Google e-mail account holding customers" - have you?

...but you've seen "we have over 500 FRIENDS" on every business from the smallest to the biggest

If we took your suggestion of 20% of the users - well you could easily assume that the REAL users on facebook are already at near maximum 'money liberation' - and that future revenue is based on 'new users' - a figure which is bumped up by the fake accounts.

20% of ALL FUTURE REVENUE PROJECTIONS FOR ALL FUTURE YEARS - now it seems a little more significant doesn't it?

 

Like I always say - don't take my word for it - check it out yourself. The caluclation for future revenues for facebook is simple.

 

USER GROWTH RATE x AVERAGE USER SPEND = FUTURE REVENUE STREAM

When one of those multiples is wrong - the formula changes significantly.

 

It looks like the market agree with me.

FB 33.85 -11.46%

 

haskelslocal's picture

This is the condundrum for everything internet. Even ZH has imposters and multiple posters who are included as indivuduals. "Unique Users"... Ain't that the truth.

writingsonthewall's picture

True, but as I pointed out - the REASON is important.

 

usually people make multiple accounts on (say) ZH for

a) Trolling

b) Forgetting username / passwords

c) because you're a paid shill trying to deceive the public

 

However - with the exception of C - there is NO financial incentive to this.

 

The example I gave for FB does have one - hence the reason for greater skepticism.

monopoly's picture

FB has been so over hyped that it IS important to talk about it. Soon it will just go the way of the others and trade as another boring social stock. But so many on Wall Street were so proud of their fees, the way they marketed the IPO and then it finally trades. Well, mud on the face of those who bought into this special mix of cool aid. Shortly, we will all be bored with the "hoodie" stock and move on. 

fuu's picture

Still short from 50,000 bitchez!

Centurion9.41's picture

The stickiness of FB is it's pictures.

Women and young girls make up the VAST majority of the activity. And that activity is focused around two things, gossip & pictures.

Most women will not spend the time and energy to migrate elsewhere, and in doing so have to rebuild their photo album, unless FB really, really, really pisses them off.

This is not like a clothing fad change. The pictures and gossip history are simply too sticky...

icanhasbailout's picture

anyone want to make a utility that automatically migrates your shit off FB?

CrashX's picture

I'm certain that serial rapists and serial killers are ALREADY using FB to target victims. When these stories become rampant, which they will, then the gossip-addicts will rethink posting all of their PERSONAL information and photographs using their REAL NAMES to a website.
And yeah, I'm sure advertisers will just LOVE being associated with the site.
As for local businesses stupid enough to use the site - I'm sure the TBTF corporations will send them a nice thank you note for supplying them with their client lists.
The premise of that site is just SO idiotic. It exists for however long only as a testimony to the stupidity of the millions of idiots who use it.

Thisson's picture

I agree in part and disagree in part.

I agree with your assessment that women/girls are the majority of activity.  I *disagree* on how sticky the pictures are.  For these women, the value is in posting CURRENT pictures of them out and about, as it is a display of social "status" to be going to "in" places (either having the money to afford to do it, or being on the invite list, or whatever).  The older pictures do not keep much value for this purpose.  The sticky part is already having the "Friends" to be able to display all of these new pictures to.

So, a new social network that can capture/import fb friends would not have a difficult time breaking into this space assuming everything else was in order (proper funding, etc.).   FB knows this, which is why they relentlessly copy any new social media feature, in order to rush it to market to their existing base before any new competitor can scale up to compete with them.

Lmo Mutton's picture

Can you buy a FB escort?

She better know how to make a sammich.

Praetor's picture

Bitch hung too long at 35. Funny business again.

fuu's picture

Floor at $33? Sat there for a minute or so before power off.

Praetor's picture

Looks like 33.50 fuu.

Freddie's picture

I think the plunge protection team's job is to keep this POS above $34.  A controlled implosion.

CrashX's picture

As a web developer serving small businesses, this Facebook flop is likely to ruin me. I advised all of my clients to steer well clear of it -
But this asinine overhyped BS IPO is gonna f me big time. We haven't recovered from the first dot com crash.

I'm not normally paranoid - but I'm guessing the FB crash will result in another bailout. ZeroHedge is awesome at following the money. Who set up these dominoes? Who is orchestrating this disaster?

I don't know jack about stocks but I'm guessing FB will hit bottom today causing a "crisis" that was obviously well planned. Who profits from it?

Thanks.

Freddie's picture

Dude - why will it ruin you?  Keep providing good services to small businesses.  Facebook imploding should not affect your business unless your clients hitched their star to FB.  As people migrate to new thing like Pinterest or Tumblr or whatever - you can migrate their business there.  Find a nice for them like on Craigslist and Linkedin.

I think Facebook has a controlled implosion.  Each day it will lose $2 to 3 until it gets down to $10.

CrashX's picture

It's not even worth $10. Why and who would bother propping it up over time so that it only loses a few dollars a day?

CrashX's picture

Oh, the reason I'm f'd is that Facebook is the "face" of the Internet to most of my prospective clients. When it fails they'll likely view the Internet as a failure. The recession is bad enough - having what people view as the Internet "cause" a depression...
So my profession is viewed as overhyped and worthless although my clients enjoy a healthy ROI.
How can they just create a fake value for a company - who buys the stocks? Is it just like a too big to fail circle jerk?
Here's a styrofoam cup. I say it's worth $38. Who does that, how do they do it, and why? And that Cramer idiot screaming "BUY BUY BUY this worthless cup for $38!!!"
By the end of the day, when it's still a worthless POS and it hits rock bottom, who makes out from the crisis?

q99x2's picture

I'm glad it is helping the market go lower.

Bartanist's picture

You don't think they would dump it on the public funding (scamming) mechanisms if there was more growth int he future, now did you?

Pet Rocks and Beanie Babies

TraderTimm's picture

The obvious answer is NUDEBOOK.

But seriously, the only thing propping up Facebook (besides their underwriters, who have now fled to their gold-lined panic rooms) is their advertising sales, and once that levels off and falls - they have nowhere else to go.

Again, facebook is nothing but repurposed advertising targeted in very granular ways. It needs users to survive, which by these graphs, show an alarming lack of interest.

Unless they start to get some new blood, the only red will be in their quarterly filings.

 

Dr_Lucid's picture

That last chart may signal a decline in marital sex life, but I'll go on the record as to how well FB helps with an 'extramarital' sex life.