Fidelity Loses $50 Million In Seconds On Its Brand Spanking New Investment, As Crocs Plunges On Guidance Cut: 2007 Redux?

Tyler Durden's picture

To anyone who is neither too young to recall, nor just got their first ever Bloomberg terminal a few days ago, CROX holds a special place in the heart since this perpetual momo stock, was without doubt the best coincident indicator of the market top back in 2007: the stock peaked just two weeks after the all time high in the S&P in October of 2007, only to collapse and never recover. Lightning may just have struck twice. Following an announcement that CROX cut guidance from $0.40, which was also the street's consensus, down to $0.31-0.33, the stock was halted for 30 minutes, only to reopen and plunge as much as 38% lower. The biggest loser? Not Paulson (for once), but Fidelity, which as the following chart from CapIq shows, decided to add 6.3 million shares in the Q2 quarter (having held nothing before), making it the second biggest holder. Oh well. There goes $50 million and some analyst's job. The biggest question, whether CROX part two is the same market peak signal that is was back in 2007 remains to be answered.

From the guidance cut:

For the third quarter of 2011, the Company now expects revenue to be in the range of $273.0 to $275.0 million, an increase of approximately 27% over the $215.6 million of revenue reported in the third quarter last year. This compares to the Company’s previous guidance for third quarter 2011 revenue of $280.0 million. For the third quarter 2011, the Company now expects diluted earnings per share to be between $0.31 and $0.33 compared to its previous guidance of diluted earnings per share of $0.40.


John McCarvel, President and Chief Executive Officer, stated: “Our business in Asia has continued to perform very well on the strength of our new product introductions. After a very positive response to our spring / summer 2011 product line in the Americas, we experienced some softness in our consumer direct channel in kiosk and outlet locations. Gross margins on a consolidated basis were slightly lower in the quarter than our initial expectations driven in part by lower direct sales as a percentage of total revenue.


“While we are disappointed with this guidance revision, we are very pleased with our year-to-date performance and believe that the Crocs brand has never been stronger,” continued Mr. McCarvel. “We remain focused on further penetrating new footwear categories and committed to building our market presence during the fall and holiday seasons. Looking ahead, based on current trends, we believe that fourth quarter revenue will grow in the low teen range on a percentage basis over the same period a year ago.


Mr. McCarvel concluded, “We are very pleased with the 30% increase in our wholesale backlog at the end of the third quarter which comes on top of a 37% increase a year ago. Building on recent product successes, we are expanding our translucent, Crocs chameleon, and sneaker collections as we head into Spring 2012. Impacted by macro economic headwinds in Europe, growth in our European business has slowed in Q3 and Q4 and is also evident in our spring/summer backlog for 2012. The solid backlog growth rate in Americas and Asia, provides key long-term building blocks to benefit from our increasing product breadth. In addition, our balance sheet remains healthy with record levels of cash and quarter end inventory levels that are projected to be down slightly on a sequential basis.”

Somehow we feel many more guidance cuts are in store...

CROX historical:

and top holders:

charts: Bloomberg and CapitalIQ

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Ruffcut's picture

Anyone that buys such a stock and crox of shit,deserves a rubber shoe up the ass. 

regardless of fuckuations of the price and profit potential, any normal human should just say NO. make it a circuit city or something as useful.

Pladizow's picture

Company to shortly be renamed - Watacroc!

Don Birnam's picture

The days of Peter Lynch are long since passed. Lately, always the bridesmaid, but never the bride...Sure, Fido has some of the lowest-cost index funds now -- about 20 years late, as indexing went out with Larry Summers in '01.

This isn't your father's FMR.

NewThor's picture

What "YOU PEOPLE" don't understand is the brilliant visionaries of retail...

Laugh now, but using Rupert Murdoch's 'hack everyone' app, I've seen the plans and

blueprints for the new 2012 Hummer666 Obama Crocs that are sure to be the rage

amongst people with lots of dry powder.

They're made of diamonds, gold and unicorn dust and can call market tops.

Suck on that, haters!



PS. did you know that by hacking every phone on the planet, you can get five kardashian butt loads of insider information? And it's not illegal, because hacking is illegal. Ah, the sweet irony!

Gubbmint Cheese's picture

What do you mean, "You people"....

Alpha Chino (Tropic Thunder)

Jay Gould Esq.'s picture


Fido is also a top-twenty [ bag holder ] in Green Mountain Coffee Roasters. -- Whoops, I'm terribly sorry. That one was down 11% this session.

The Big Green Pyramid is built on a foundation of nothing more than shifting mo-mo sands.

Use of Weapons's picture

Oh, the irony.

Odin -> Loki -> ?

It isn't Thor. It is Baldur, you fucking idiot. Way to miss the plays there boys.

And yes, that's a cosmic joke about to be played: when he rises, the earth will be green again. Not your phallic-centric-wet-dream-of-fighting I'm afraid.

Thanks for playing, Good luck, and Good night.


Oh, and the real version is: "Laugh now, but one day we'll be in charge".



#OccupySeasemeStreet, /muppet

Gyro Gearloose's picture

Time travel has been proven!

Ahmeexnal comments two minutes before Tyler posts.




Xrated's picture

My Fidelity 401k is in treasuries. F the stock market right now. Guns and ammo, and silver and gold is my way of survival.

CClarity's picture

Ugly shoes, ugly stock, ugly market. And down even further.

ss123's picture

People still wear these "shoes?"

LawsofPhysics's picture

Hhmm, lots of institutional investors at fidelity.  could get interesting.

Tacos Rule's picture

From personal experience... no... it won't... those people are fucking idiots who don't budge until the prez is on TV saying we maxed out the fucking credit card AGAIN while never realizing we maxed it out 70 times in the last 40 years and it was just some sick political game that ended up backfiring on their precious markets.

So in summation I take back words four through six in this post, ignorance is pretty interesting to watch.

Irish66's picture

wash, rinse and repeat.  damn ugly thingies but nurses wear them.

ReallySparky's picture

I can not believe people actually wear those shoes.  I understand that they are functional for the medical community, with all the bodily fluids flying around.  They have taken them out of the three upscale specialty garden centers/horticultural stores in my area.  They have also disappeared from airport kiosks.  Surely the analyst could have seen this coming.

ceilidh_trail's picture

Actually, crocs are banned in my 2400+ bed institution. Too much risk of body fluid exposure to the wearer. The nurses that I know that wore them loved 'em, but tptb decided they are too risky (I 100% agree) as it is common for all kinds of nasty to spill, and gravity heads it all towards the feet...

Mike2756's picture

Naah, they got stopped out, no problem!

Big Corked Boots's picture

How can these guys not make buckets of money? They take ten cents of polymer, run it thru a molding machine, and sell the stupid things for $30.

Momo trader, momo fashion.

BigInJapan's picture

Because any fool in China can, and does, as well.


Thorny Xi's picture

The orange and pink ones were popular in county jails, before budget cuts

DutchR's picture

Uggs are next....

RacerX's picture

Let's hope. They are clearly overdue for a lashing.. "Fugly"

TooBearish's picture

I s the Fido redemption phone line still open?

RacerX's picture

"Is it too late to pull out?" :-D

slewie the pi-rat's picture

h/t to RT?

those inexpensive puts are getting harder to find...

vegas's picture

I guess they didn't follow that green arrowed line they always hawk on TV for their investors.

Do You Speak Greek's picture

LNKD, LULU, AWAY, CRM are next. 

Next 6 months will be a good time to be a put-buyer/short-seller/call-seller in the high betas...

ghostfaceinvestah's picture

Agreed, CROX is a small part of it, I expect we will see a lot more of this kind of drop in the months ahead (look at NFLX for example).

I would add to your list CMG, that is a name I am looking to get short soon.

ouchtouch's picture

I have three pairs that I bought at Costco for a very low price after the last CROX crash -- I've been waiting for another crash to stock up again.  I wear them everywhere.  Also have matching ones for my kid.   I love them but they are not worth the crazy retail price they are trying to charge.

Kreditanstalt's picture

For those of us too old-fashioned, too lazy (and too disinterested in this consumer shit) would you please tell us the actual name of the company?  "CROX" means's just another craps counter.  (And I full realize that that's what EVERY company now is).

Kreditanstalt's picture

How many of you actually buy any of this stuff anyway?  I mean, @$50 plastic footwear made in China...


RacerX's picture

btw UGG brand = DECK (Decker's Outdoors). On the Naz.. not the pinks.. at least not yet.

ghostfaceinvestah's picture

DECK is another stock I expect to get cut in half before the year is out.

tekhneek's picture

Almost makes me think shorting BlackRock's top 20 is like a greatest hits list in some sick, twisted, contrarian way.

oogs66's picture

the only ones beating earnings handily are the banks - on the back of DVA!

buzzsaw99's picture

Blackrock. heh heh

ZeroPower's picture

I think the drop is overdone - 0.40 old guidance vs 0.31-0.33 warrants nowhere near as much of a drop as what a/h session is showing.

Dont get me wrong regarding chasing a momo POS, but assuming it was 'faily priced' at 27 with those earnings expectations, the $10 drop is quite steep.

gwar5's picture

I got the last of my McFido (of the clan McFido) money out of there last month.... after nearly 20 years with them. So sorry McFido, but there can only be one.

spiral galaxy's picture

Tyler!  Many thanks for your website and salvaging my sanity.  A true breath of fresh air in the atmosphere of incessant media hype & bs.  This article being another case in point.......kicked off today with ZH's Citi's Bloodbath stark contrast to the buffoons on CNBC trying to decipher CVA and all other acronyms to get to the 'actual' earnings.  Many thanks and keep up the good work! :-)