Final GDP Revision Comes In Line; Claims Continue "Improving" Even As They Continue Deteriorating

Tyler Durden's picture

Two data points out today: the first was Initial Claims which did precisely as expected: it improved even as it deteriorated: why - the media headline will blast: "Initial Claims Decline by 6K" because last week's number of 387K was just revised to 392K. Ironically, enough, this was just as at least we expected. From 8:27 am.

That what actually happened was a miss of baseline expectations, in that claims would drop to 385K is irrelevant. Just as it is irrelevant that next week, today's 386K number will be revised to 390K. And the media manipulation song and dance revisions will continue. More importantly, and continuing the 99 week cliff issue, 60,000 people dropped off initial and extended claims in the past week. In other words, 1.260 million people have fallen off extended benfits in the past year: people who no longer collect any form of unemployment benefits. Surely they have all "found jobs."

 

Finally Q1 GDP came at 1.9% just as expected, with Personal Consumption however coming in weaker than expected, at 2.5%, below consensus and the last revised number of 2.7%.

Sadly for all those who sell newsletters based on nothing but central planner intervention hope is that today's data set was not horrible enough to send stocks soaring.

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GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Oh good....the revisions are in....we'll reivse them later.

 

 

fonzannoon's picture

Santelli looks and sounds as if he sold out. He barely mentioned the prior weeks revision.

GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

No worries....there's always next weeks revisions.

 

 

bdc63's picture

wait until the 'fiscal cliff' layoffs start happening - we can't be more than a month or two away from that (I can tell you first hand that the defense contractors are really starting to panic about it).  we're headed back into '4 handle' territory, and that's going to be a whole harder for them to spin.

A Nanny Moose's picture

Which will be revised down to make the following weeks revised number appear better.

Serial Revisionism

EscapeKey's picture

 

Make the lie big, make it simple, keep saying it, and eventually they will believe it

Personally, I've also found that internet shills repeating the same old lie endlessly will eventually win, as people simply give up arguing against it.

Which is why banning trolls really ultimately is required.

 

dexter bland's picture

"Make the lie big"

yes why take the time to make up a lie over 1.5% of a volatile weekly statistic? Who can even be bothered thinking, let alone arguing about such trivialities? (outside of ZH where it may be understandably treated as further evidence of a grand conspiracy to supress the price of PMs).

 

EscapeKey's picture

If it wasn't intentional, the discrepancy would be both on the positive as well as negative side. But it isn't. It is entirely one-directional.

Aren't you supposed to be over on Marketwatch drinking government k00l-aid about the "recovery"?

dexter bland's picture

Why would claims ever be oversted, unless there was massive outright fraud? You have thousands of  bureaucrats around the country trying to despatch paperwork off to some central processing department in time for the weekly stats bulletin. Someone gets sick, someone stufsf up, some get lost in the mail, whatever, they will be undercounted.

It doesn't matter if they are consistently understated from week to week because no-one is capable of directly deriving any other economic indicator from them anyway. The thing that matters is the trend, not the absolute number. You can base your charts on the announced numbers (if you care about currency) or the revised numbers (if you care about accuracy). What you shouldn't do is mix the two.

EscapeKey's picture

Because it's a propaganda tool.

INITIAL CLAIMS COME IN BETTER THAN EXPECTED.

William113's picture

@ Dex.Hey ass munch how come your Government propaganda machine doesn't use the weekly withholding numbers. That would tell us how many people are working week to week. My bad Obama and the rest of the goon squad don't want you to know that number. Go back to CNBC.

A Nanny Moose's picture

We have always been at war with Eastasia

Peter Pan's picture

Why don"t they delay issuing the figures by a week so they don't have to then revise the figures?

Eireann go Brach's picture

Well do we expect anything less with this nonsense, when the man running this country has less business experience than my sister's cousin who makes $27 an hour on the Internet selling fake birth certificates to Kenyans!

Frastric's picture

The way things are going, claims will improve to 500k.

GtownSLV's picture

400k is the hopium swan song... and likely or next  black swan 

old naughty's picture

Improving is for the head-in-the-sand majority.

It's fallin on our deaf ears.

 

CURWAR2012's picture

Time to heavily invest in home security (and I mean your home not Amerika's) since bathsalt sales are rising and likely to be added to the EBT "ok" list.

 

Temporalist's picture

With what else would a zombie season their naked homeless person than with bath salts?

LeisureSmith's picture

Just put it in the drinkingwater and call it trace minerals...BTW do people still do PCP? Sure looks that way.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWitRABYVBk

Rainman's picture

Bullish-it !!.......2 trading days left in the quarter !

Temporalist's picture

This is not the summer of recovery you are looking for.  Move along.

LawsofPhysics's picture

beating expectations, all the way down....

SheepDog-One's picture

What I really wonder is who this is supposed to fool? Its like they think we're all little babies, endlessly surprised by 'peek-a-boo' game every week? Whatever...

dwdollar's picture

It must fool someone or they wouldn't bother to do it. This is the government we're talking about.

GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Well I for one totally didn't expect it.....so......I guess they fooled me!

 

Well....me and CNBC.

 

Oh my gosh.......LOOK AT THAT!!!!!

 

GMadScientist's picture

The vast unwashed, innumerate American populace, of course.

Spastica Rex's picture

My son and I had pizza with them last night. 

fonzannoon's picture

They are not fooling anyone around here. The smart money owns treasuries like Mark Grant said to....right?

Blue Horshoe Loves Annacott Steel's picture

Lol.  That's a hilarious analogy.

GMadScientist's picture

"No I ain't gonna work on...Maggie's farm no more..."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p968TUsDx9g

The Duck Stops Here's picture

Nothing like needing to compare apples to oranges (initial vs revised) to make a case for a strengthening economy LOL 

GMadScientist's picture

If I squint, I can see a bottom in 2010, 2011,...

 

tarsubil's picture

I laughed out loud. Been doing that a lot lately at work. Office drones getting disturbed.

Anywho, this is the bottom, believe me. This is it. We're saved. It is all roses from here on out. The chart clearly shows it.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Extend that chart out a few more year dude, then you see a "long term top".

LMFAO!!

monopoly's picture

Pathetic govt. data. Worthless. Ignore!

firstdivision's picture

WTI is off to the moon since the rumors began.

Snakeeyes's picture

Look at the charts. NOTHING is improving. GDP at 1.9%, EU GDP at 0%, jobless claims at Dec 2011 levels. THE MOLASSES RECOVERY!

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/06/28/the-molasses-recovery-us-and-eurozone-gdp-growth-slow-as-molasses-in-winterime/

mrktwtch2's picture

im self employed..so i dont count on any job rolls..how many thousands more are there out there like me (i work as a independent contractor for a fcm..and trade a little bit)

emersonreturn's picture

some believe thinking a thing creates it...self help books touting reality is what you imagine have helped create a world where some want to be fed fantasy.

Spastica Rex's picture

Hella strong anthropic principle.

epwpixieq-1's picture

Or may be just instead of finding jobs, people should concentrate on picking practical knowledge, that will allow them to live outside of the system, and as bonus, they will not have to pay any taxes, as by definition they will not have any income. By achieving that they will live a lot better than any, if not all, system dependant people. And for many of them (us) this life will be like leaving in paradise, as close to nature as possible.

sudzee's picture

GDP expanding at the rate of 23 billion per month and the monthly deficit is ????

midgetrannyporn's picture

the kleptocrats are still the biggest welfare queens on the block. take another hundred billion out of the pension funds boyz, you've earned it.

Mister Ponzi's picture

52nd upward revision of initial jobless claims in a row. One full year in which the weekly number has been initially reported too low.

Continuing claims have seen its 100th upward revision in a row. Another stunning record.

Blue Horshoe Loves Annacott Steel's picture

With the constant intervention, how long before US financial news becomes like news in the Soviet Union near their end, where no one pays any attention?

Phew. That was a hard question to piece together.

Intelligence_Insulter's picture

I'm not counted in the unemployment numbers either.  The numbers are a non elaborate fabrication for PR purposes only.

 

In other news, chocolate rations have increased.

eric89074's picture

1.26 million people lost extended benfits in the last year. Once you've been unemployed for that long you're completely fucked and better figure out a scam because welfare (if you can get it) won't even pay as much as UE.