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Final GDP Revision Comes In Line; Claims Continue "Improving" Even As They Continue Deteriorating
Two data points out today: the first was Initial Claims which did precisely as expected: it improved even as it deteriorated: why - the media headline will blast: "Initial Claims Decline by 6K" because last week's number of 387K was just revised to 392K. Ironically, enough, this was just as at least we expected. From 8:27 am.
Last week's Initial Claims number of 387K will be revised to at least 390K in 3 minutes
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 28, 2012
That what actually happened was a miss of baseline expectations, in that claims would drop to 385K is irrelevant. Just as it is irrelevant that next week, today's 386K number will be revised to 390K. And the media manipulation song and dance revisions will continue. More importantly, and continuing the 99 week cliff issue, 60,000 people dropped off initial and extended claims in the past week. In other words, 1.260 million people have fallen off extended benfits in the past year: people who no longer collect any form of unemployment benefits. Surely they have all "found jobs."
Finally Q1 GDP came at 1.9% just as expected, with Personal Consumption however coming in weaker than expected, at 2.5%, below consensus and the last revised number of 2.7%.
Sadly for all those who sell newsletters based on nothing but central planner intervention hope is that today's data set was not horrible enough to send stocks soaring.
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Oh good....the revisions are in....we'll reivse them later.
Santelli looks and sounds as if he sold out. He barely mentioned the prior weeks revision.
No worries....there's always next weeks revisions.
wait until the 'fiscal cliff' layoffs start happening - we can't be more than a month or two away from that (I can tell you first hand that the defense contractors are really starting to panic about it). we're headed back into '4 handle' territory, and that's going to be a whole harder for them to spin.
Which will be revised down to make the following weeks revised number appear better.
Serial Revisionism
Make the lie big, make it simple, keep saying it, and eventually they will believe itPersonally, I've also found that internet shills repeating the same old lie endlessly will eventually win, as people simply give up arguing against it.
Which is why banning trolls really ultimately is required.
"Make the lie big"
yes why take the time to make up a lie over 1.5% of a volatile weekly statistic? Who can even be bothered thinking, let alone arguing about such trivialities? (outside of ZH where it may be understandably treated as further evidence of a grand conspiracy to supress the price of PMs).
If it wasn't intentional, the discrepancy would be both on the positive as well as negative side. But it isn't. It is entirely one-directional.
Aren't you supposed to be over on Marketwatch drinking government k00l-aid about the "recovery"?
Why would claims ever be oversted, unless there was massive outright fraud? You have thousands of bureaucrats around the country trying to despatch paperwork off to some central processing department in time for the weekly stats bulletin. Someone gets sick, someone stufsf up, some get lost in the mail, whatever, they will be undercounted.
It doesn't matter if they are consistently understated from week to week because no-one is capable of directly deriving any other economic indicator from them anyway. The thing that matters is the trend, not the absolute number. You can base your charts on the announced numbers (if you care about currency) or the revised numbers (if you care about accuracy). What you shouldn't do is mix the two.
Because it's a propaganda tool.
INITIAL CLAIMS COME IN BETTER THAN EXPECTED.
@ Dex.Hey ass munch how come your Government propaganda machine doesn't use the weekly withholding numbers. That would tell us how many people are working week to week. My bad Obama and the rest of the goon squad don't want you to know that number. Go back to CNBC.
We have always been at war with Eastasia
Why don"t they delay issuing the figures by a week so they don't have to then revise the figures?
Well do we expect anything less with this nonsense, when the man running this country has less business experience than my sister's cousin who makes $27 an hour on the Internet selling fake birth certificates to Kenyans!
The way things are going, claims will improve to 500k.
400k is the hopium swan song... and likely or next black swan
Improving is for the head-in-the-sand majority.
It's fallin on our deaf ears.
Time to heavily invest in home security (and I mean your home not Amerika's) since bathsalt sales are rising and likely to be added to the EBT "ok" list.
With what else would a zombie season their naked homeless person than with bath salts?
Just put it in the drinkingwater and call it trace minerals...BTW do people still do PCP? Sure looks that way.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWitRABYVBk
Bullish-it !!.......2 trading days left in the quarter !
This is not the summer of recovery you are looking for. Move along.
beating expectations, all the way down....
What I really wonder is who this is supposed to fool? Its like they think we're all little babies, endlessly surprised by 'peek-a-boo' game every week? Whatever...
It must fool someone or they wouldn't bother to do it. This is the government we're talking about.
Well I for one totally didn't expect it.....so......I guess they fooled me!
Well....me and CNBC.
Oh my gosh.......LOOK AT THAT!!!!!
The vast unwashed, innumerate American populace, of course.
My son and I had pizza with them last night.
They are not fooling anyone around here. The smart money owns treasuries like Mark Grant said to....right?
Lol. That's a hilarious analogy.
"No I ain't gonna work on...Maggie's farm no more..."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p968TUsDx9g
Nothing like needing to compare apples to oranges (initial vs revised) to make a case for a strengthening economy LOL
Here's another way to interpret the IC charts:
http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2012/06/initial-claims-thursday_28.html
If I squint, I can see a bottom in 2010, 2011,...
I laughed out loud. Been doing that a lot lately at work. Office drones getting disturbed.
Anywho, this is the bottom, believe me. This is it. We're saved. It is all roses from here on out. The chart clearly shows it.
Extend that chart out a few more year dude, then you see a "long term top".
LMFAO!!
Pathetic govt. data. Worthless. Ignore!
WTI is off to the moon since the rumors began.
Look at the charts. NOTHING is improving. GDP at 1.9%, EU GDP at 0%, jobless claims at Dec 2011 levels. THE MOLASSES RECOVERY!
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/06/28/the-molasses-recovery-us-and-eurozone-gdp-growth-slow-as-molasses-in-winterime/
im self employed..so i dont count on any job rolls..how many thousands more are there out there like me (i work as a independent contractor for a fcm..and trade a little bit)
some believe thinking a thing creates it...self help books touting reality is what you imagine have helped create a world where some want to be fed fantasy.
Hella strong anthropic principle.
Or may be just instead of finding jobs, people should concentrate on picking practical knowledge, that will allow them to live outside of the system, and as bonus, they will not have to pay any taxes, as by definition they will not have any income. By achieving that they will live a lot better than any, if not all, system dependant people. And for many of them (us) this life will be like leaving in paradise, as close to nature as possible.
GDP expanding at the rate of 23 billion per month and the monthly deficit is ????
???? .... Unicorns?
the kleptocrats are still the biggest welfare queens on the block. take another hundred billion out of the pension funds boyz, you've earned it.
52nd upward revision of initial jobless claims in a row. One full year in which the weekly number has been initially reported too low.
Continuing claims have seen its 100th upward revision in a row. Another stunning record.
With the constant intervention, how long before US financial news becomes like news in the Soviet Union near their end, where no one pays any attention?
Phew. That was a hard question to piece together.
I'm not counted in the unemployment numbers either. The numbers are a non elaborate fabrication for PR purposes only.
In other news, chocolate rations have increased.
1.26 million people lost extended benfits in the last year. Once you've been unemployed for that long you're completely fucked and better figure out a scam because welfare (if you can get it) won't even pay as much as UE.
add that to the 10,000 baby Boomers a day + 0.05% on savings acocunts...
It's a wonder there is ANY consumer spending.
If you don't agree with welfare policy of paying people not to work, you should believe that 1.26 million coming off of extended benefits should be good for the economy. I don't understand your inconsistency, Tyler.
Also, I'm sure a large number of those people were honestly looking, but it's hard to believe that so many people have no plan to sustain themselves once the handouts stop coming.
What I think is funny is all the people that have been untouched "get a job you bum" and all the "you shouldn't had taken that student loan u dumbass"...........these morons have NO IDEA how fucked the US is and how inner connected everything is. Millions of kids that can't buy houses or anything else--all they can do is send the banker school loan money, Millions of people that aren't spending $1500 month unemployment checks............I say ha ha to the insincere crowd because if you're just the average dumbass with a typical job----you are going to get fucked as well. Some got fucked first......you'll be getting fucked soon enough. People better pull their heads out of their asses and stop this nonsense and figure out what to do.
Oh but don't worry.........supposedly a new great war will keep our fragile little minds off the economy. Of course if the nukes are raining then the mortgage bill really won't matter.
BTW........did you see they found the pilots boots and helmets??? BULLFUCKINGSHIT!! At least this time they had the decency to send a empty plane. Since this is blowing up in their faces im sure next time will have actual pilots although they will be forced into the remote aircraft after being drugged up so they can have actual body parts as proof complete with leaked pictures. Fuck the US, as always I mean that as in fuck the bastards that hijacked the country long ago and use our printing press to take over the world.
PARTY TIME.....
More CowBell...!!!
The Bloomberg consumer comfort index just came out and consumers are the least depressed than they have been in two months.
But look at the chart of Bloomberg consumer comfort versus the employment to population ratio. WOW!!!!!!!
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/06/28/the-molasses-recovery-us-and-eurozone-gdp-growth-slow-as-molasses-in-winterime/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y1itubmHkYk&feature=player_embedded#!
And if you can't fudge the numbers, tell the people there's a perception problem.
"McCarthy highlighted recent improvements in the statistics — homicides had declined 17 percent in the past month and shootings dropped in nine of the last 10 weeks compared with a year earlier, he said."
"So we have a perception problem here, and I don't know how to overcome it, except to keep communicating the facts," he said. "And that's what we're going to continue to do."
"It didn't help that Chicago was just coming off one of the year's bloodiest weekends, with 53 people shot, nine fatally.
Through Monday, 228 people had been slain, up 35 percent from 169 in the same period last year, according to the department. There have been 976 shootings, up 11 percent from 881 in the same period a year earlier, the department said."
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-06-12/news/ct-met-mccarthy-speec...
Revised Q1 U.S. GDP 1.9% – Corporate profits have biggest drop since 2008
david cameron could fix it as long as he stops playing angry birds
http://agstock.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/what-about-uk.html