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Final Nail In Today's NFP Tragicomedy: Record Surge In Part-Time Workers

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It appears the record surge in people not in the labor force is not the only outlier in today's data. For the other one we go to the Household Data Survey (Table 9), and specifically the breakdown between Full Time and Part Time Workers (defined as those "who usually work less than 35 hours per week"). We won't spend too much time on it, as it is self-explanatory. In January, the number of Part Time workers rose by 699K, the most ever, from 27,040K to 27,739K, the third highest number in the history of this series. How about Full time jobs? They went from 113,765 to 113,845. An 80K increase. So the epic January number of 141.6 million employed, which rose by 847K at the headline level: only about 10 % of that was full time jobs: surely an indicator of the resurgent US economy... in which employers can't even afford to give their workers full time employee benefits. We can't wait for Mr. Liesman to explain how this number, too, is unadulterated hogwash, and how it too is explained away to confirm economic strength. Incidentally this is not the first time we have discussed the issue of part vs full time workers: for more see here: "Charting America's Transformation To A Part-Time Worker Society, Following 6 Straight Months Of Full Time Job Declines"

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Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:00 | 2123368 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

The algos have not been developed sufficiently to read beyond the head lines and today's financial "reporters" are just that....they report what they are told with no questions asked

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:00 | 2123372 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Great chart Tyler. Makes my all happy inside.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:00 | 2123375 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

 

"We can't wait for Mr. Liesman to explain how this number,"

 

For cripes sake will somebody please call him out on the real numbers?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:03 | 2123397 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

...Mr. Liesman...

Liesman is a man?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:07 | 2123421 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

True

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:13 | 2123700 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

I've taken dumps that look more manly than Liesman

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:11 | 2123450 jay28elle
jay28elle's picture

There are no balls in Congress to call Liesman out, off course the Admin does not want to, and the MSM and CNBC and all the supposed experts on the airwaves are too stupid to know the diff.   Peeps like Tyler and a few others do a good job analyzing and reporting, but too few stupid Americans are able to hear the truth, understand it, or even care.

This shit will get BO relected and nothing will ever change.

Just play along now... ride the wave and enjoy it while we can.  When it turns, play the slide and enjoy it.  Rinse, repeat.

 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:31 | 2123520 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Yeah I know. The ongoing bullshit just gets under my skin. I suppose they like it that way though.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 15:01 | 2124199 jay28elle
jay28elle's picture

Not a matter of whether they like it... they just don't give a damn.  

None of this shit going on is doing any, or much, harm to any of the elitests.  It's a pissing match between Machines, we're the pawns, and regardless of what happens to us pawns they will continue to be just fine.

The only thing I can think of that might take obama down is his arrogance, ego and insistence of being god.  People are truely getting sick of him, and as he continues to throw others under the bus and brag about it to everyone and the MSM, someone in the progressive Machine may just get tired of throwing up in their mouths every 10 minutes when BO comes on national tv and decide they do not want him as pres and put someone else in.  Or cut off any remaining nuts that he has (if Michelle doesn't do that first).  Whichever.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:04 | 2123376 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Bears need to get a grip.

 

The reason the tape is strong is because the horrid jobs report means that TPTB is now even more emboldened to do whatever it takes to goose stocks.

The tape is getting stronger every day.

Note how the NYSE Summation Index is now charging to new highs:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/McSumNYSE.html

Advance Decline line is still going up faster than the NY Composite index, meaning the market internals are very strong.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYUD&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p70273094322&a=122406050

Clean breakout in XRT, yet another new, lifetime, world record high.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=xrt&inst...

Same thing with SPG the world's biggest shopping mall REIT.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=spg&inst...

Bears who have been reading all the "doom and gloom" blogs the last 3 years have missed out on stock market gains of a lifetime.

 

 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:11 | 2123446 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

Even if they put all their money into gold and silver since 2009... ahhhh.. gotcha..

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:12 | 2123453 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

From a TA standpoint, this was the pop some were looking for to finish the rally. We needed one more small wave up, and we got it. If 1370 is taken out, I'll have to reassess, but until then, I still say this rally is near its end.

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 10:41 | 2128383 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Print a trillion dollars and throw it at the equities.....yeah......things are going great.

 

 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:19 | 2123483 The Axe
The Axe's picture

I would love to see your P&L  dickhead   you always print what has happen....rearview   ass......

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:20 | 2123494 donsluck
donsluck's picture

Um, my gold is up 26% yoy. Silver 17%.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:33 | 2123517 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Meh, looks more like the toppy action of Sep 09 to me.  Twas looking rosier then too.  Looky at that spikey monthly candle with delta of 21 IWM points.  And let me reiterate the negative MACD-price divergence still currently in play on the weekly.  We'll see.

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 13:17 | 2128692 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

"Bears who have been reading all the "doom and gloom" blogs the last 3 years have missed out on stock market gains of a lifetime."

You like contributing to the FED/Madoff/Corzine/Lay inspired ponzi scheme - feel good about yourself?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:01 | 2123377 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Agree, I cannot even stand to have the TV on during the day. He is such a waste. And again, Zero Hedge brings us the truth.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 19:08 | 2125193 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

+1

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:01 | 2123379 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

I personally know people who are volunteering their services in order to prove their worth should a future paying position open up. These numbers are absolutely repulsive to me and I very much look forward to a day of retribution.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:10 | 2123438 Irish66
Irish66's picture

psychological phenomenon of reactance, in which a person has a negative emotional response in reaction to being persuaded, and thus chooses the option which is being advocated against.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:03 | 2123395 RopeADope
RopeADope's picture

Part time employees soared because all those people that fell off UI eligibility are reloading their earnings at rock bottom income levels. Bernanke should be happy, the drop in labor costs will help to offset the inflation he is causing.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:26 | 2123507 donsluck
donsluck's picture

Good point. I know lots of semi-retired people who volunteer just for the social interaction. The aging population is, on it's own, deflationary. This allows lots of money printing without headline inflation, instead we get the steady loss of standard of living through reduced wages, which are not counted as inflation.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 13:37 | 2123836 RKDS
RKDS's picture

Doubtful when the clown at the top is still sucking down 7-9 figures and the shareholders still think they're entitled to increasing profits.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 19:10 | 2125206 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

The lack of jobs out there is because many people are holding down 3 jobs, if they can, just to keep the bills paid.

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 13:21 | 2128705 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

Plus no bennies - so many people just won't use medical - which will hold medical costs relatively more in check.  They always make a large component of inflation, and would otherwise be worse.  So the misery index goes up, but why should the chairsatan care?  He's never left his ivory tower to be concerned about the 'peons'.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:07 | 2123424 monopoly
monopoly's picture

That is one of the few areas where i agree with Robot. Shorting this market makes 0 sense and has made 0 sense for a long time.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:12 | 2123454 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Well, since April/May, anyway.

And btw, you do realize 2011 was a down year?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:12 | 2123456 wonderatitall
wonderatitall's picture

how much is robo  donating to king putt...how much does he get back as a rent seeking scum of the earth demo nazi loving golfer....

i have been informed that to disagree with such a rent seeker is racism...damn they got a good argument for 40 more years of baby doc obama

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:08 | 2123427 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

CAT (+65% profits y/y) is closing down a factory in London Ontario. Workers
wouldn't accept a slash to wages, benefits and pensions.

So they are going to move facotry across the border. Where workers will
accept NO benefits, NO pensions and 40% cut to wages.

Now at first glance many will say a job is a job. But think through the long
term implications of this "job". Who is going to pay for this workers healthcare
and pension? Not the corporation.The bill will go to the public sector. The
corporation is paying record low taxes to the government (as a percentage of GDP
lowest since 1972). Currently the number is about 13.1% vs 25.6% from 1987-2008.

So, the government (which is you dear taxpayer) is subsidizing all new
employment in this enviroment. Moreover, you are also being asked, to a greater
extent than ever,to subsidize workers healthcare and pensions. In reality the
taxpayer is subsidizing the extreme wealth transfer from workers to company
executives.

Nobody will care about this today. The same as nobody cared about subprime in
2002.But you can be damn sure they will in 5-10 years from now.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 14:20 | 2124051 Matt
Matt's picture

Well, from the Canadian side, they would have had public health care and been paying into CPP, so it would have just been supplemental medical - dental, perscriptions, etc that the company would have covered, plus more pension money.

Dumbasses were greedy and now they are going to be on Employment Insurance, getting 66 percent of pay for the next 12 months while they look for another job.

Doesn't Obamacare require these workers to get health insurance?

What is the contribution versus withdraw for a worker on Social Security?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:09 | 2123433 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Funny how the jobs numbers hit massive outliers in an election year *wink*

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:10 | 2123443 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Nobody is buying these numbers, volume is pathetic, price is fading......  Bye Bye Bye

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:13 | 2123463 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Harry Wanger approves of these numbers.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:09 | 2123435 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Whirlpool $46 to $68 in 3 weeks.

 

Where is the "consumer durables" recession?

I don't see it.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:16 | 2123472 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Whirlpool is down 40% over the last 18 months.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:23 | 2123499 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

it's called a short squeeze, tarder

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:26 | 2123505 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

My Robo senses are on fire. I went long WHR on 11/4 around $51 and covered it literally minutes before you post this. Lots of weekly resistance here and now you are looking in the rear view on it. Looks like the WHR run may take a breather now that its on the Robodar.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:28 | 2123513 HD
HD's picture

All those foreclosed homeowners finally had to move to a rental property. Nothing more.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:47 | 2123585 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Whirlpool $46 to $68 in 3 weeks.

Robo the permabull(tard)...

The only person in history that can look at a WHIRLPOOL & see increasing profits...

Don't you just love the irony?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 14:22 | 2124064 Matt
Matt's picture

Is RobotTrader the Zerohedge 'nom de plume' for Jim Cramer? I mean, amazing ability at retroactively selecting the winners.

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 13:25 | 2128720 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

Buy, buy, buy Robo - the barely perceptible (fake) recovery is in full swing.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:10 | 2123440 g3h
g3h's picture

Unseasonably warm weather so the herd couldn't control its urge for more sugar, which led to more sales in the shops?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:11 | 2123445 e92335i08
e92335i08's picture

We need to have the Rick Santelli Network and a bunch of us and Zerohedge support him in providing the TRUTH to the economy that neither CNBC FBN OR BLOOMBERG really reports.

 

Santelli for presient! He is what were looking for! Everyone else running is weak! Santelli should get in the race!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:11 | 2123452 gmak
gmak's picture

Markets are strong because all the USD liqudiity from FED increase in USDEUR swap lines was waiting to make sure there was nothing weird (market manipulator weird) in the jobs report. Now that that dam has been opened, the liquidiyt is free to rush out. Risk is off, baby. Look at gold, look at bonds. The EUR was ramping up until the resignation rumour.

Forget about all the jobs data. Just look at tax receipts. If they're going up = economic improvement. IF they're falling = continued slide into recession (or futher in, depending on your point of view).

 

Cheers.

Sun, 02/05/2012 - 13:28 | 2128729 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

"Just look at tax receipts."

Overall (individual and corporate together) barely up yoy.  Recovery bitchez!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:12 | 2123455 aerojet
aerojet's picture

I know this site is all about the doom and gloom, but I will tell you first hand that a A LOT of people are starting to retire and leave the workforce.  Does the NFP track actual retirements versus just people who disappeared from the workforce?  We're well into the Boomer retirement wave this year and it is going to be growing steadily from here on for many years.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:21 | 2123485 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

I was forced into early retirement at age 55 by a large US Tech company. The job was offshored. They've been doing this to 10-15K US workers every year since year 2000. Many other Techs are doing the same. So yeah, lots of boomers retiring -- whether they want to (or can afford to) or not.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:13 | 2123461 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Cummins $85 to $120 in little more than a month.

 

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosetti...

My condolences to anyone who was short.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!