This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Finance For Adult Dummies
For the last thirty years economic policy makers have been in the business of promoting asset prices higher through easy credit. Global policy makers are meddling in markets so that the economies they feel responsible for can achieve what seems to be a consensus objective of muddling through. A policy of meddling to muddle, if you will. QBAMCO's critical 'inflation' insights, and Tourette's-ridden ranting, reflect the simple realities of what real-world consequences occur when policy makers succumb to the perceived political imperatives of perverting economic data. In this combined note, Brodsky and Quaintance scrub away at the misconceptions related to inflation, raise doubts as to the incentives of central banks to share the true loss of their currencies' purchasing power with the public, and extend this to try and get a truer sense of money, inflation, and real value today - all of which seem grossly misunderstood, despite our best efforts, in the marketplace. Simply put, they point out that, "It should not be considered acceptable to be in a profession – as a political economist, policy maker or investor – in which self-delusion has become a necessary requirement for success and perpetuating that delusion is harmful to the broad economy over time. Yes, but the “public good” you say? Ah, but for how long?"
Excerpt:
Given: 1) the exorbitant leverage currently in the global banking system, 2) current negative real output growth in developed economies, 3) current negative real interest rates, 4) uniformly poor monetary, fiscal and demographic conditions across most developed economies, and 5) already wary populations beginning to get restless; we have difficulty imagining that global banks, labor, savers, politicians and investors will be able to endure current conditions much longer before demanding the financial reset button be pressed to complete bank de-levering.
We provide the graph below merely to make it easier to conceptualize the nature of such a de-levering, as we see it. (This is not necessarily a prediction of timing or magnitude.) The takeaway is that base money (in the form of physical currency in circulation) and bank deposits will have to rise at a much steeper rate than bank assets until the banking system is more fully reserved. (At some point we think bank animal spirits will once again take over and we will have a new leveraging cycle.)
Please see below the combined articles - An Adult Approach I and II.
»
- 19510 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Money velocity begets
massive inflation, which begets
ATM draining, which begets
greater money velocity, which begets
more inflation....
Money velocity is the key to the real multiplier effect
There's a lot of beagating going on there, For a moment I thought I was reading the book of Genesis.
Same amount of guilt in both.
And MF'ing is an adult activity that needs to happen behind closed doors.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203646004577215400103051944.html
Mayhem, the M2 money velocity is at a 60 year low and so is the MZM. People are sitting on the cash waiting for something to happen.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V?cid=32242
Geez, the sarc was so obvious on that one I didn't think I'd need the tag.
orange juice is $5 a gallon = we're gonna have the hyperinflationz
A lot of things became much brighter for me when I watched this Kyle Bass interview taken couple of months ago. I've seen it posted here before but it is just priceless: http://bit.ly/ywzqNI
Don't click on this retards link above it's a trojan virus...what a panty waste
Thanks dude.
lose some customers over that video tard?
So since M2 money supply has increased over 10% in the last year does it really matter?
I do not see an equal chart showing at what rate capital is destroyed through bankrupty, non-payment or other?
So...maybe it's semi controlled inflation with moderate deflation which can only continue for so long before one or the other breaks...
If everyone is in the hyperinflation camp then I must go with deflation because usually....everybody is wrong?
Confused
I think the jest of it is that the banks need to print, or face serious problems. If you are in agreement that the bankster-whores are running Obama and his policies, then money printing has to take place because not doing so puts their existence and power at stake.
Whether that is inflationary or deflationary can't be judged in this environment, as PM's, crude, and staples are heavily manipulated. In such a manipulated environment, the inflationary rug is being pulled over the average persons' eyes so as to keep the printing going. You are being lied to.
The "economy" is a farce right now and the inflation vs deflation thing can't be accurately judged until the banksters get their tentacles out of every aspect of the free (lol) market.
Your "jest" has a Freudian flare to it.
Robslob, first the inflation rate is an arbitrary number that can hide real inflation in other parts of the economy, such as during the housing boom the CPI went up "3%" and housing 80%. So ignore it most of the time. The producer price index is more accurate but you need to understand the PPI can move OPPOSITE the CPI in a healthy economy. If there is a boom coming the PPI might be going gangbusters while the CPI is flat as capital users prepare for what is perceived as a selling boom on the horizon.
That being said the money is showing up in corporate record profits, and capital users. These are not real profits and most corporations realize this and are being very cautious about over consumption based on bull shit profit numbers. Keynesian government economist use this trick all the time, float a bunch of inflation, cash, out there to give private capital users the illusion of fat profits, the capital users over produce (housing) consuming more resources and labor than they need to, President gets reelected (Bush), and then the bust.
If you want to see where a lot of cash is parked look at excessive reserves, T-Bills, and other crap the bankers in the ZH crowd can point you to.
One of the main reasons I like ZH is the dude points you to where the money is. That is VERY important to know and follow!
Hint: they own all the mountains, valleys, plains, continents, glaciers, farms, ranches, homes, businesses, cars, couches, etc. that's where the money is parked. their realestate market, unlike ours, is going up
I believe that the QE1 and QE2 were attempts to prevent deflation as a result of loss of wealth from housing and equities in 08. If not for all the attempts to cause inflation we would see deflation.
just my two cents ... or dollars or whatever...
Deflation is good. We need deflation and deleveraging.
Do you teach at a public school?
No way. Public state run institutions ignore me and pretend there are no Austrian economists out there. You have to be a Keynesian, monetarist, and maybe an occasional supply sider to get a job with the government. Austrian, you can forget it.
The only way a public community college or university would even talk to a Austrian economist is to set up a affirmative action hire, in other words, “we talked to the white guy” and then hire the Latino, Negro, female, Keynesian.
The game is rigged.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7vddTgeS6Q
ponzi schemes are good for everyone
I do not see an equal chart showing at what rate capital is destroyed through bankrupty, non-payment or other?
Capital isn't destroyed in bankruptcy, non-payment, default, etc.
The money lent (or invested) is still out there in the economy somewhere. It just doesn't make it back to the lender (or investor).
Greece is a good example. All the money lent to Greece wouldn't disappear if Greece defaults. That money was spent by the Greek government, it's in other people's pockets now. It just never gets back to the lender (or investor).
Bankruptcy, default, etc doesn't decrease the money supply, because money created by a bank and lent to someone never gets back to the bank and taken out of the money supply. It stays in the money supply.
The only thing destroyed in bankruptcy is the obligation to repay that money. In non-payment and default the obligation is still there but is never fulfilled, the money is never repaid.
all that pretend debt can be paid back in two minutes with a state of the art printing press
Grand liquidation = the critical event.
It sounds like someone has a whole lot of printing to do.
I hear Kodak is looking for some print work.........
"It should not be considered acceptable to be in a profession – as a political economist, policy maker or investor – in which self-delusion has become a necessary requirement for success"
In a nutsell.
Mark of Awesome from me just for that gem.
Why is it in speech marks? Is it a quote or is it rhetorical ??
TVIX explosion today all over everyones faces - http://hedge.ly/w9GEPt
All this talk makes me sad. I think I will curl up next to a good fire and peruse my signed edition of Krugmans' Age of diminished expectations'. The man is a GENIUS. That and some seltzer bottle champagne and I will await the next triumphant announcement from Greece. Awakening Monday with renewed vim and vigor, I will start the week BULLISH.
A+b equals c on a Graph! Am I right? Always make sure the ( right) Shoulder is up!
Chickens, dummies, same thing really.
http://vimeo.com/9880377
Loan sharks knew that if they took the dollars printing machines under their control they could suffocate the world ...they could initially suffocate USA and after taking the USA from the Americans, they could move and suffocate the whole world and take the countries from their people.
FED printed cheap money and loansharking multiplied this money in an unnatural way within the American economy boarders and they discarded them abroad so that they did not threaten USA. USA became the first state in the world with artificial “breathing”...
It cannot be possible but just in the USA for only the last year, more than one million houses were seized. It cannot be impossible but the New World has returned to tents and shelters ..has returned to the ages of Columbus. It cannot be possible that we allow to a few loan sharks looting the toils and the assets of people...
http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2012/01/global-debt-crisis.html
------------------------
Global Debt Crisis
Authored by PANAGIOTIS TRAIANOU
A few are allowed to counterfeit, loan their counterfeit money to others and buy assets while the rest must toil for money to slowly buy assets.
"Spin is the polite word for deception."
unSpun: Finding Facts in a World of Disinformation [Paperback] Brooks Jackson (Author), Kathleen Hall Jamieson (Author) http://www.amazon.com/unSpun-Finding-Facts-World-Disinformation/dp/14000...When Bernanke talks about 2% inflation, he excludes food and energy. You know, those things Americans can do without.
And why should I give a shit if I'm in the top .1% and my income will go up another 240% over the next 15 years? The rest of you can quit complaining and just buy hamburger instead of NY strips.
OT : Threatened by a Ron Paul victory in Maine, GOP (insider spills beans) adds last minute caucuses!!
http://www.dailypaul.com/212704/fear-and-loathing-in-the-maine-gop
WTF!!! More BS from the GOP!
There they go, masaging their caucuses again. Shouldn't do too much of that, they will go blind, won't be able to see if you know what I mean.
Back in '08, I was a delegate attending the WA state republican convention. I witnessed an interesting political tactic that made me realize politics was pretty pointless (and expensive). While sitting there conversing with a McCain supporter, an older lady approached us, mistaking me for a McCain supporter, and quietly explained that at a certain point they were going to give a signal and have all of the McCain supporters leave the auditorium, in hopes of forcing a problem with the quorum (required amount of people to proceed with political actions). After pulling their stunt, and still having a quorum, they then forced several recounts of the new quorum, then forced several recounts after all the McCain supporters came back into the room, then had recounts of everything that didn't go their way in an effort to burn the clock down and prevent changes by the Ron Paul supporters. It was really some bullshit and I was quite displeased with the whole affair.
did you smack somebody or just write a Zero Hedge post about it?
Here in Nevada when it became apparent that the RP supporters would seat a few delegates at the national convention the state party simply pulled the plug and walked out of the convention. Our state convention remains unconcluded to this day. And yes Alpha Monkey, political sausage making is unpalatable.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=125802
The links are dead in this thread but the process is still evident for anyone to see. Anyone that thinks the "system" is available to the average voter is sadly mistaken.
yeah, and if every single eligible voter had marked the box on the ballot beside Ralph Nader's name in either '96, '00, '04, or '08 the US would still be exactly where it is today...
pull the other one
1. What are the issues and the conclusions?
2. What are the ressons?
3. Which words or phrases are ambiguous?
4. What are the value conflicts and assumptions?
5. What are the descriptive assumptions?
6. Are there any fallacies in the reasoning?
7. How good is the evidence?
8. Are there rival causes?
9. Are the statistics deceptive?
10. What significant information is omitted?
11. What reasonable conclusions are possible?
http://www.amazon.com/Asking-Right-Questions-Critical-Thinking/dp/013220...
Ask the Right Questions when you listen to MSM.
why listen to MSM in the first place?
direct the instrument of your inquiry and reason elsewhere
get out of the bog and see if you can find some firmer ground
fightClub!
the first rule about pyramid schemes is dont talk about pyramid schemes
have you heard about the new chain letter based on phyzzz?
If you are reading this then this warning is for you. Every word you read of this is useless fine print is another second off your life. Don't you have other things to do? Is your life so empty that you honestly can't think of a better way to spend these moments? Or are you so impressed with authority that you give respect and credence to all who claim it? Do you read everything you're supposed to read? Do you think everything you're supposed to think? Buy what you're told you should want? Get out of your apartment. Meet a member of the opposite sex. Stop the excessive shopping and masturbation. Quit your job. Start a fight. Prove you're alive. If you don't claim your humanity you will become a statistic. You have been warned...
--Tyler
tarbender!
another drink for tyler, please!
put it on his tab!
what a fukin party!
kiss my statistic, durden!
have you heard about the new chain letter based on the phyzzz, tyler?
Here's a question for you. What's the difference between Good and Evil? Answer: One has a printing press, the other has a lifetime of servitude, poverty & hunger.
"It should not be considered acceptable to be in a profession – as a political economist, policy maker or investor – in which self-delusion has become a necessary requirement for success"
The only delusion is people thinking these professionals have the delusion.
They don't. They're not stupid nor deceived. They know what's really happening.
They go along with it because they benefit from it in some way. Inside information, Money under the table, position and status and power and paycheck, all those things.
The only delusion is thinking smart people wouldn't sell out their principles for money and status and power. It happens all the time. All around you.
Pretty much EVERYONE in government these days is selling out their principles and morals for money, status, and power.
Then there's a whole bunch of people outside government selling out their principles and morals so they can suck on that government teat in some way, from welfare recipients to government contractors to mainstream media to psuedo-scientists to phd economists and other so-called "experts".
Those people aren't stupid. They're greedy. Greedy enough to prostitute themselves to the power structure.
It doen't stop there. It's all through the corporate world. Suckups and brown-nosers and similar disgusting people.
They're not stupid. They're greedy. Greedy enough to prostitute themselves to the corporate power structure.
It doesn't stop there. It's all through the business world. From business onwers who cut corners and lie to customers to make a few more bucks to the lowest level employee who cuts corners and lies to customers so they benefit in some way from a sick company culture of lying and screwing people.
From a spiritual next life standpoint, NONE of those people are gonna make it. ALL of them are lost. Every single one. Regardless of their "faith", regardless of their religion or lack thereof, it doesn't matter, they're ALL lost.
THAT'S the payback for selling out.
They might as well enjoy this life, it's the only life they'll ever have.
Whenever someone decides to cross that line to the "dark side" where personal gain outweighs principles and integrity, that's it, they just forfeited any chance at the next life.
They know it in their own mind, and the entire spiritual realm knows it ...instantly.
so "elect a guy so rich he really no longer needs to sell out." I'm on board with that. Unless of course "he's still a greedy bastard and is still only interested in keeping score...even at 200 million."
all interest-bearing debt is unpayable if the interest does not exist in the physical universe and never will be
who has an interest in deflation then? name one. the company man? no way--he's got numbers to make. the government guy? no way--he's got taxes to collect. the economist? absolutely not--the system is too complex--"just print money." that's why inflation is everywhere and always a global phenom. The question that needs to be asked in this article...and isn't...is why have prices and interest rates collapsed in the Western World and Japan? It's not that complicated--like motivating your people with a cattle prod it's as simple as "one nation, under God, divisible by successful property speculators and unsuccessful property speculators, with (liberty!)bailouts for the successful one's and no (injustice!) bailouts for the failed one's." this has been true under every monetary system in the USA...and now Europe and Brazil as well. that's why the key to every ecnomic recovery to me is not gold but oil and natural gas. "positive cash flow starts moving immediately thus getting lending and credit back up and running." there is no news in me pointing out this obvious fact either--the USA has a spectacular system of dealing with failures such as these--PROVIDED FAILURE IS ALLOWED TO EXIST AND CONTAINED. For the most part it wasn't since we didn't have a Federal Governent of any consequence until the 50's and "counter cyclical economic policy." (Another important factor is the weather. An unusually warm year/lack of winter as we have had this year increases productivity in a Western workforce materially. this is a COMPETITIVE advantage and since the USA has the most advanced transportation system created in human history one that can be used for allowing this increased productivity to be translated throughout the entirety of the economy very quickly. Indeed it is conceivable (think of Singapore or Wal-Mart) for the transportaion sector to be an economy unto itself registering spectacular growth should a vast, new, cheap and rock bottom priced fuel source along with the technology to use it become available and something always in need of depreciating in value (food) be needed for it to be used. again: natural gas.)
Sent a blind copy of this post to Ben Bernanki, I doubt he will read it though.
This season, Barber Jackets will be one of the most popular additions to the wardrobes of the most fashionable people around today. They have already been an admired feature on catwalks throughout the world, whether London, Paris, or New York, are Quilted Barbour Jackets this year's biggest fashion statement. Trendy, stylish, and sophisticated, anyone with even a passing interest in fashion would have heard of this manufacturer of outdoor jackets. To own a Barbour Quilted Jacket is to make a statement to the world: ‘I love fashion, and I know what's hot and what's not'. To wear Barbour Jacket is to imbue you with a feeling of royalty, of an impression of regal greatness; indeed, these Barbour International Jackets truly reflect a high-status in society.To be sure, the Barbour Jackets Women is an expensive way of ensuring you remain fashionable for another season. Nonetheless, the price is a reflection on quality and style, no other manufacturer of clothing has managed to convey the same messages that Cheap Barbour Sale has. The advantages of owning such a prestigious item of Barbour sale clothing far outweigh the expense of doing so.
Because of the natural classic look these Women Barbour Jackets , Barbour Jackets mens ,Childrens Barbour Jackets suggest about the wearer, they are clearly appropriate for many occasions. Whether you wear yours to the pub, or to the wedding of your closest friend, you can be sure that you will not look out of place. Moreover, these Barbour Ladies Jackets are suitable across the seasons, in winter, they Quilted Jacket keep the wearer wonderfully warm, in summer, they keep of the drizzle, a staple favourite of weather systems throughout the UK! Their specialist materials are much like silk in the qualities they provide, providing warmth during a cold spell, but equally, managing to keep you cool during a warm spell – this is no surprise, many ‘country' style devices provide these qualities, just think about the thatched house; cool in summer, warm in winter,that is Barbour Jackets sale.
Barbour jackets could prove to be an excellent gift option for your spouse, father, mother or teenage son/daughter. Vintage Barbour jackets are like a cherished heirloom and if you are getting one for your grandparent, it is sure to make him the happiest person on earth. Cheap Barbour jackets come in quilted and non-quilted variants. Whereas Barbour Quilted Jacket are more suitable for colder weather, the non-quilted jackets are apt for every day wear in all weather conditions.
Barbour jackets Womens are available in various materials and you can choose a jacket as per your liking. The designs and patterns on offer make it extremely difficult to settle for a single jacket and for those discerning patrons who like nothing but the best in outerwear; there is no dearth of options. These jackets offer full value for your hard earned money and with the name of Barbour Sale behind every product you can rest assure that the quality of material and craftsmanship will be unparalleled.
If you are searching for a jacket which is more than just a piece of outerwear, visit us at barbour-sale-outlet.net to see exclusive Barbour Outlet collection.
http://www.barbourjacketswomen.biz
http://www.barbour-sale-outlet.net
This season, Barber Jackets will be one of the most popular additions to the wardrobes of the most fashionable people around today. They have already been an admired feature on catwalks throughout the world, whether London, Paris, or New York, are Quilted Barbour Jackets this year's biggest fashion statement. Trendy, stylish, and sophisticated, anyone with even a passing interest in fashion would have heard of this manufacturer of outdoor jackets. To own a Barbour Quilted Jacket is to make a statement to the world: ‘I love fashion, and I know what's hot and what's not'. To wear Barbour Jacket is to imbue you with a feeling of royalty, of an impression of regal greatness; indeed, these Barbour International Jackets truly reflect a high-status in society.To be sure, the Barbour Jackets Women is an expensive way of ensuring you remain fashionable for another season. Nonetheless, the price is a reflection on quality and style, no other manufacturer of clothing has managed to convey the same messages that Cheap Barbour Sale has. The advantages of owning such a prestigious item of Barbour sale clothing far outweigh the expense of doing so.
Because of the natural classic look these Women Barbour Jackets , Barbour Jackets mens ,Childrens Barbour Jackets suggest about the wearer, they are clearly appropriate for many occasions. Whether you wear yours to the pub, or to the wedding of your closest friend, you can be sure that you will not look out of place. Moreover, these Barbour Ladies Jackets are suitable across the seasons, in winter, they Quilted Jacket keep the wearer wonderfully warm, in summer, they keep of the drizzle, a staple favourite of weather systems throughout the UK! Their specialist materials are much like silk in the qualities they provide, providing warmth during a cold spell, but equally, managing to keep you cool during a warm spell – this is no surprise, many ‘country' style devices provide these qualities, just think about the thatched house; cool in summer, warm in winter,that is Barbour Jackets sale.
Aside from the provision of all things practical – their weather proofing, their warmth and cooling properties depending on the season, the depth of their pockets, their protection from rain, etc – Barbour jackets are also a fantastic fashion accessory. The image they invoke is one of class and sophistication, and by wearing such an item, you will reflect the same sentiment. This season, they are particularly fashionable – given the townie/country look that touted by the fashionista throughout the world at present. Wear with a pair of chinos, or skinny jeans, and perhaps a lumberjack shirt and narrow tie, and you will ‘hit the hammer on the head' by way of fashion this season.
In terms of style and comfort, therefore, there is no better jacket than Barbour jacket, made from the finest quality and in the most fashionable designs; you cannot go wrong when purchasing Barbour jackets.
Barbour jackets could prove to be an excellent gift option for your spouse, father, mother or teenage son/daughter. Vintage Barbour jackets are like a cherished heirloom and if you are getting one for your grandparent, it is sure to make him the happiest person on earth. Cheap Barbour jackets come in quilted and non-quilted variants. Whereas Barbour Quilted Jacket are more suitable for colder weather, the non-quilted jackets are apt for every day wear in all weather conditions.
Barbour jackets Womens are available in various materials and you can choose a jacket as per your liking. The designs and patterns on offer make it extremely difficult to settle for a single jacket and for those discerning patrons who like nothing but the best in outerwear; there is no dearth of options. These jackets offer full value for your hard earned money and with the name of Barbour Sale behind every product you can rest assure that the quality of material and craftsmanship will be unparalleled.
If you are searching for a jacket which is more than just a piece of outerwear, visit us at barbour-sale-outlet.net to see exclusive Barbour Outlet collection.
http://www.barbourjacketswomen.biz
http://www.barbour-sale-outlet.net