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The First Euro Bond Prints Are In, And The Loser Is...

Tyler Durden's picture




 

On Friday, when we discussed that the EFSF could potentially be expanded to a ridiculous E3.5 trillion, we made the following observation in advance of the prediction that Germany would eventually throw up all over the creeping euro bailout proposal, we said:  "In the meantime, short Bunds (or to borrow a Gartmanism, go long gold in Bund terms) ahead of the market's realization that peak risk transfer from the periphery to the core is now in process." Well, the first eurobond prints are in (we already know where gold is trading), and the losers (and winners) are...

  •  Bund 10-year yields +12bp; France yields +11
  •  Italy 10-year yields -50bp; Spain -37bp
  •  Greece 1-year yields -8bp; Portugal +14bp
  •  Bund 2-year yields +8bp; France +8bp
  •  Italy 2-year yields -59bp; Spain -54
  •  Greece 2year yields -19bp; Portugal +13

Yes Germany: it is one thing for us to predict that your country will soon foot the bill for all of peripheral Europe. It is another for the market to agree.

It is still not too late.

 

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Mon, 08/08/2011 - 02:50 | 1536077 Left Right Wrong
Left Right Wrong's picture

Is there any sort of opposition movement in Germany?  Are they organized, are the people angry?  I've seen the writing in Der Spiegel, but that's about all I've seen.

I guess time will tell whether the German people accept their coming role or not.

OT: Anyone heard from CPL?

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 02:53 | 1536080 janus
janus's picture

dammit, LRW, don't you ever do that shit again, you slippery devil.

can't you see i'm tryin to make a point?

Duh!

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 02:53 | 1536082 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Why ? They get control of Europe, that is what the Krauts always wanted.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 04:59 | 1536182 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Control? WTF? They paid, and paid, and paid over the years, only for spendthrift Club Med nations to demand more, once the funds dried up.

And then they're accused of being "in control"?

I mean jeez, if I was German I'd be seriously fucked off with having to bail out Club Med continuously.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 06:49 | 1536256 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Exacly. Whenever something goes wrong in Europe, someone will blame the "Krauts". It is booooring.

If you really want to play the blame game: the Southerners spended too much while the "money was for free", the French want to be in control, the British want to sabotage everithing that starts with an "E" and does not end with "ngland". And don't get me started with the Irish, they are completely befuddled, lately (somehow they have not really realized how & why their national debt doubled).

The Germans? They just wish to keep their productive way of life, poor critters. Up to now they are the true victims. Wait until November, then you'll hear from them.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 08:54 | 1536479 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

French want to be in control

 

Sarkozy is the neo-Napolean.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 06:01 | 1536220 Bob Paulson
Bob Paulson's picture

Agreed! Surprising that people on this site think that Germany would make a mistake. They are smart little wiener schnitzels.

They will use the debts to take over the European countries they are lending to.

They will do with economic warfare what Hitler failed to do with guns.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 06:41 | 1536249 PY-129-20
PY-129-20's picture

Barroso, Van Rompuy, Ashton, Trichet, Draghi, Rehn - all are damn krauts that want to take over Europe.

Germany that has 29 votes - like Italy, France, Great Britain - Poland and Spain have each 27 votes - Greece 12 votes; we are soooo superior against all of them, right?

And you're blaming us for the wrongdoings of other nations. If anything doesn't work - blame the Germans and remind them of WWII.

Fourth Reich my ass! - We don't want a Fourth Reich - many Germans just want to live in peace and have a decent share of wealth, idiot.

Don't make a mistake - the mood is angry, but many are just disappointed. Our optimists believed in the capability of Club Med and that they would use our money wisely to create wealth for their nations and for Europe as a whole. We paid for this crap and meanwhile our streets are getting more holes, we needed to close more schools and public services, many Germans lost on their income (the only OECD country where Income went negative 4.5 % as a total - 22 % for some people in Germany and for everybody that earns less than 4000 EUR per month.

 

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 08:13 | 1536399 Bob Paulson
Bob Paulson's picture

You make the mistake of failing to distinguish between 'the people' on one hand, and government and bankers on the other.

What the people want doesn't matter. It never has.

The Mediterraneans will be wearing lederhosen before they know what hit them.

 

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 08:57 | 1536488 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

Barosso is from Spain, and van Rumpoy is from Belgium. But Belgium doesn't have a government, so how can they be represented in the EU Parliament? .

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 09:28 | 1536610 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

EU elections are separate from general elections. At least, that's how it works in several other EU countries.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 11:34 | 1537351 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Watch the movie "The International" with Clive Owen. It puts it into presepective.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 08:31 | 1536439 caconhma
caconhma's picture

Like I said 2 days ago: German leadership is utterly stupid and coward.

Their self imposed guilt for crimes they did not commit is just disgusted.

I feel so sorry for the hard-working German people! They are once again are raped by jewish banksters.

 

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 02:54 | 1536084 Frosty Gary
Frosty Gary's picture

I kinda always assumed CPL was just full of shit. Is he the one that always talks about "THE THREE UNPATCHABLE HOLES IN COMPUTER SOFTWARE"?

I just wonder what the Ol' Gipshit would have to say about all this... 

http://video.adultswim.com/tim-and-eric-awesome-show-great-job/what-rona...

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 02:50 | 1536078 janus
janus's picture

as hopefully the first, i'll say that i'm happy we're no longer voting on one another's opinions...thought it antithetical to the whole ZH thing.  one-on-one slug-er-out type thing. 

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 04:12 | 1536163 Sokhmate
Sokhmate's picture

weather the voting had any value. No-voting is a much (c)leaner interface.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 05:00 | 1536183 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Your mom goes to college.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 05:50 | 1536207 fuu
fuu's picture

Junk

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 09:27 | 1536592 janus
janus's picture

okay, fuu, i bet you think you're pretty friggin smart; don't cha!  bastard!  i'm assuming you know that you are TAGGED! 

and fuU, too

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 02:50 | 1536079 BayAreaAlan
BayAreaAlan's picture

Gold, bitchez. It's what's for dinner.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 02:53 | 1536081 steveo
steveo's picture

How can you link together Euro, US downgrade, the Economic Hit Men, and Ayn Rand.     The grand unification theory here, at Hawaii Trading, also includes an annotated version of the actual S&P downgrade.

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 02:55 | 1536085 chump666
chump666's picture

hahaha i know Bunds are getting killed.  The ECB just slapped Germany in the face.  The whole thing will end in tears, one week and counting.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 02:56 | 1536090 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Bloomberg Host " But further stimulus is not politically possible in the US anymore "

Richard Koo " Yes but it is physically possible "

 

Quote of the year

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 02:59 | 1536097 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Germany won't have to bear this load alone, Bernanki will come to the rescue, he did before.

By now most everyone at ZH knows Bernanki's mission is to protect the assets of the super

wealthy of the western world. He will bail out EU banks once again with trillions of off

balance sheet dollars and will do so in secret. 

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 03:04 | 1536106 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Bing-fucking-O !  Zorba wins the prize !  DING DING DING DING !!!!  QE3 officially started tonight/early this morning. 

Thus truly begins the end-game. 

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 03:21 | 1536130 whirlybird rules
whirlybird rules's picture

@zorba THE GREEK:  what jumboton said!

 

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 03:45 | 1536142 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

The real objective of Benny is to destroy the Euro Currency... but he must do it while appearing to offer a helping hand... That is the way the game is played and it's called hardball.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 03:00 | 1536099 pendragon
pendragon's picture

look how much interest rate spread compression there's been between 2y euro swap and 2y usd swap. how can the euro not have budged in that time? something is very broken

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 03:04 | 1536107 Mediocritas
Mediocritas's picture

Swaptacular.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 03:18 | 1536122 whirlybird rules
whirlybird rules's picture

@pendragon:  besides the usual suspects, it's called c-h-i-n-a

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 03:01 | 1536103 Mediocritas
Mediocritas's picture

Certainly, the Eurocrats are going to *try* to get Germany to foot the bill. The popcorn and 3D glasses are out to see what happens next.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 03:10 | 1536114 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Time for Germany to invade countries.... to liberate people from those european union globalist trash.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 03:20 | 1536124 chump666
chump666's picture

sell on rallies, EUR is bid.  we got major ECB bond buying.  that idoit Trichet is trying to knock down the 5 and 10yr Italian and Spanish spreads.  Bet on, he gets maybe three days...then back to doomsday. 

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 03:21 | 1536131 TK7936
TK7936's picture

Foot the Bill ? But we got everything insured in the United Safe of America. And if AIG cant pay the FED will.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 03:47 | 1536145 boattrash
boattrash's picture

Spot-On TK! BOHICA. It's like running a liquor store and buying life insurance on the Skid Row drunks out in front.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 03:47 | 1536146 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Germany is not going to go for this, it's a suicide mission. 

The people are already pissed about the other stuff.

Germans can't afford to bail out Italy and Spain now, and it'll get worse.

Good bye EU, wasn't soon enough. Don't forget to take the flag with you.  

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 03:50 | 1536149 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Well guess what boy, the ECB rules and everyone must lick their boots, especially the Germans! The German must either put Merkel's head on a pike or be enslaved and suffer the hardest depression the world has ever seen when it all comes down.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 03:51 | 1536150 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Tons of buying here this am from the ECB - basically lifting every offer on our IT, ES paper.

Spain CDS open: 400/412 -->314/334 last. Lol.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 10:04 | 1536810 janus
janus's picture

ZeroPower,

I've been reading a lot of your posts for a few weeks now, and then doing all the fun work of uncovering exactly what they mean.  They are invariably correct and concice, but they're missing something; let's call it salt.

Now, in spite of all my shortcommings, i've been able to piece together some very important info on you; namely, that you're canadian.  It's kind of like showing off a handicap to compensate; no offense or anything...we see it; well aware of the club foot, old sport -- and we all want to celebrate it with you...huzzah!

and although i'm sure the great north woods are just bursting with all things write-homeable-about and bragable, the thing one tends to note about the average canuk is the, ahem, handicap.

God, aparantly, considers nothing above humor; and this is especially true when He is bored.  And after reviewing all the permutations of humanity, thinking all mirth exhausted, kind of as an afterthought the Great I AM decides to stunt the processors of an entire creed: the innocent canadian.

i'm not telling you anything you don't already know (it just may take a few more seconds for the realization to hit you), but i want to here encourage you.  you see, with these computers, you can make everyone believe that you're churning along under the tow of all eight cylinders -- with text, your thoughts can be sped up in the mind of your reader!  i know you would have figured this out for yourself...eventually.  so, my good man, let's hear some more of your thoughts on things.  flesh in a little more detail -- focus on that 'why' question for your quicker and more nimble fans.  so, think away, slow as you please, without fear of ridicule or well-warrented institutionalization.

PS the girls are safe and warm.  wrapped in an undersized confederate battle flag (they say they love the feel of real cotton), and working on their annunciation, i've found these two to have an infectious spirit...you may not have them back.

if you're travelin in the north country fire/

where the winds hit heavy on the border line/

remember me to one who lives there/

for she once was a true love of mine,

janus

   

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 03:59 | 1536155 hungarianboy
hungarianboy's picture

The question is, will they be able to keep buying? :-)

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 03:59 | 1536156 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

My 'local' gold online shop pretty much sold out of all popular coins just some chineese and collectors coins left wow

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 04:05 | 1536162 oogs66
oogs66's picture

france in particular seems a great short...they will foot the bill for efsf until they get downgraded, or the eu will collapse and they are screwed anyways

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 04:52 | 1536178 Left Right Wrong
Left Right Wrong's picture

How exactly do you short France?

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 06:57 | 1536275 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

by drinking French wine

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 04:17 | 1536165 FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

US 10y + 30y up now. Market voting on bonds and the verdict is clear.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 04:26 | 1536168 chump666
chump666's picture

oh and the other gift to the Germans as their bund prices tank, the IBEX, and the Italian MIB rally as the DAX goes negative.  Nice.  Hardworking Germans just had an insane ECB use them and their wealth to bailout the corrupt Italian economy.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 04:59 | 1536181 whirlybird rules
whirlybird rules's picture

chump666:  Merk's out of the job soon enough and she's thinking "damn that nice salary, all those lovely hotels, Sarkozy kissing my ass :)..  She's also desparate not to e pinned as the point person for the demise of the euro.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 05:12 | 1536188 chump666
chump666's picture

i hear ya brother, she is finished

 

gonna have a coffee

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 04:32 | 1536172 FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

Italian Bonds rallying. Big time. Shorts getting crushed.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 06:55 | 1536273 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

That's the price for not knowing what the Italians call "crisis management". Not good for keeping "face" and not elegant or orthodox at all, but effective.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 04:55 | 1536180 whirlybird rules
whirlybird rules's picture

soooo, now Tricket has bought HOW MANY millions of Italian and Spanish paper????   dollar is ticking up, someone said the ride will last for 3 days, how about 3 hours????????

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 06:10 | 1536225 falak pema
falak pema's picture

I think that Trichet did this to snub Reggie and his gang of Euro shorters. They are taking a beating today unless they were clever enuff to put their Puts, (putts in gogoff), on French and German spreads; in anticipation of this ominous crossing of the Euro Rubicon undertaken by the ECB.

Can they turn back at the drop of a hat...is now ZE QUESTION...OH TO BE OR NOT TO BE AN ECB SHILL WHEN PUSH WILL COME TO SHOVE UNDER MARKET MADNESS.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 06:24 | 1536235 cbaba
cbaba's picture

WE are heading to the End game, they are now targeting France an Germany...very fast and true.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 05:09 | 1667511 chinawholesaler
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Tue, 01/10/2012 - 23:16 | 2053073 simoniddings
simoniddings's picture

I was about to send a couple of articles to my printer because I did not keep myself in the loop regarding the Eurozone crisis, but this one caught my attention, especially the comments. It is amazing how some countries spend like they had a credit card with no spending limit and another country’s ID on it. Atrocious.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!