The First French Official Results Are In

Tyler Durden's picture

8 pm has just passed in France, and all the polls are now closed, which means official preliminary data is now allowed - the first results from IPSOS are in, and are as follows:

  • Francois Hollande: 28.4% (28.8% latest) - with victory virtually assured in the runoff round on May 6, it is now Hollande's election to lose. Could he? Yes - read here how Sarkozy can still catch up per DB.
  • Nicholas Sarkozy: 25.5% (26.1% latest) - make the runoff round
  • Marine Le Pen: 20.0% (18.5% latest) - extreme right: much better than expected as nationalism is back with a bang.
  • Jean-Luc Melenchon: 11.7% - extreme left: best communist showing since 1981 yet weaker than expected.
  • Francois Bayrou: 8.5%
  • Eva Joly: 2.0%
  • the others are irrelevant.

Big win for Hollande but even more stunning victory for extreme right winger Le Pen, which only proves that nationalism is back in Europe with a vengeance.


From Reuters:

Far-rightist Marine Le Pen threw France's presidential race wide open on Sunday by scoring nearly 20 percent in the first round - votes that may determine the runoff between Socialist favourite Francois Hollande and conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy.


Hollande led Sarkozy by about 29 to 26 percent in reliable computer projections broadcast after polling stations closed, and the two will meet in a head-to-head decider on May 6.


But Le Pen's record score of 18-20 percent was the sensation of the night, beating her father's 2002 result and outpolling hard leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon, in fourth place on 11 percent. Centrist Francois Bayrou finished fifth on less than 10 percent.


Le Pen, who took over the anti-immigration National Front in early 2011, wants jobs reserved for French nationals at a time when jobless claims are at a 12-year high. She also advocates abandoning the euro currency and restoring monetary policy to Paris.


Her score reflected a surge in anti-establishment populist parties in many euro zone countries from Amsterdam to Athens as austerity and the debt crisis bite.


Voter surveys show about half of her supporters would back Sarkozy in a second round and perhaps one fifth would vote for Hollande, making her a potential kingmaker in the runoff.


Jean-Marie Le Pen's 16.9 percent score in the 2002 first round caused a political earthquake, knocking then Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin out of the runoff and forcing left-wing voters to rally behind conservative Jacques Chirac.


Sarkozy, 57, has painted himself as the safest pair of hands to lead France and the euro zone in turbulent times, but Sunday's vote appeared to be a strong rejection of his flashy style as well as his economic record.


If Hollande wins on May 6, joining a small minority of left-wing governments in Europe, he has promised to lead a push for a bigger focus on growth in the euro zone, mainly by adding pro-growth clauses to a European budget discipline treaty.


The prospect of a renegotiation of the pact is causing some concern in financial markets, as is Hollande's focus on tax rises over austerity at a time when sluggish growth is threatening France's ability to meet deficit-cutting goals.

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bugs_'s picture

French conservatives.  The socialist siren song must not be loud enough.

slaughterer's picture

Sark better train well for the debate, as Hollande is the better orator and rhetorician by far.   But the French socialists always have a way to fumble the ball before the goal.  Seriously, their guilt complex is about having power, and they always mess up bad right before getting power.   

bank guy in Brussels's picture

There is a traditional saying about the French in their voting politics:

« ... le coeur à gauche et le portefeuille à droite ... »

The heart on the Left, the wallet on the Right


carbonmutant's picture

There's more than French in that one.

redpill's picture

France is totally (Sark)hosed.

boogerbently's picture

When do WE get more than 2 party's?

El Oregonian's picture

I like "The Heart of the wallet" myself...

ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

never heard this ... thank you Mr Brussels.  By the way .. how are the 'politics' these days between the ... well you know what I mean about Belgium .... a lot of good people stuck in an impossible historical predicament

Banksters's picture

Sarkozy in attempt to woo voters has now RELEASED PHOTOS OF his BABY AND BABY SITTER!!!

and voilà!

wee-weed up's picture

I wonder how long it will be before Sarkozy's trophy wife leaves him?

wee-weed up's picture

Someone needs to post that photo of Sarkozy's wife with Michelle Obama in the background shooting daggers with her eyes. Classic envy on display!

o_rly's picture

Yes, being an extreme right-winger means you don't want a neverending supply of foreigners coming into your country, a rejection of neo-liberal bullshit, and a return to sound economics.

Pfft, I'm done with this sham of a blog.

El Oregonian's picture

You obviously have got the gift of "shit for brains" don't you?

James_Cole's picture

Le Pen is widely considered (including among themselves) as far right - this is about as uncontroversial as it gets.

Wooly's picture

With Le Pen's vote swapping to Sarkozy in the 2nd round it's all still to play for, surely?

EuroSovietSerf's picture

Le Pen voters deeply mistrust Sarkozy. They'll mostly stay home now.

gatorengineer's picture

I think you nailed it  Sark + right is more than Hollande plus communists.... Look for S&P up tomorrow 3+%, europe is saved once again......  The lib media goofed once again.....

CClarity's picture

Balkanization part deux - just a little further west.

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Spain? No! no! gimme a do-over... um... the Untied 'States' of Amnesia?

Gringo Viejo's picture

While I'm pleased at Le Pen's showing, I believe it's a day late and a euro short for France given the muslim situation. The same may be said for England. Question is, will America follow?

slaughterer's picture

Bullish!  (Somebody had to say it).  

Ramboy's picture

Everything written on zerohedge is long term bullish.  

ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

atta boy ! .... sit at the head of the class.


controversy maybe ......  stuff you see no where else ... yes.  even Charlie Gasparino admires ZH!!!

CH1's picture

Question is, will America follow?

It doesn't matter. The US guv is well past the point of no return. I will NOT be fixed, no matter what.

An idea to consider: How much time and energy do you spend on politics every week? Might it be more usefully spent in other ways?

Politics is an addiction.

AnAnonymous's picture

Who is the muslim candidate? Considering their power position in Europe, they must field a powerful one.

So who is he/she?

gatorengineer's picture

I Assume you are counting hood rats in that category.......  if so we are two weeks late and twenty Obamabucks short.....

midgetrannyporn's picture

It won't make any difference. The elites have screwed up everything everywhere and very soon it will be our turn to screw things up for them.

pkea's picture

isn't Hollande pushing for eurobonds?  that's telling a lot where who is behind him....


 le pen is the only one who can have any impact on the markets in the right direction.

APC's picture

5 more years of Sarkozy.  Bet on it.  The right was the clear winner tonight.  Do the math...

EuroSovietSerf's picture

You assume a little too much that Le Pen voters love Sarkozy.

PontifexMaximus's picture

They do not like him at all, right u r, but in the end, better to have Sarko with the perspective being in power than the wildcard Hollande.

destiny's picture


APC's picture

No, I wouldn't say that that was true.  Truth is they hate him.  But Hollande is talking about giving voting rights to non citizen immigrants.  You think LePenists will get behind that?  No, I think we're looking at a "lesser of 2 evils" situation here, and I think they will deem Sarko to be just that...

destiny's picture

Lepenist voters are a non event, many of those votes are contest votes 

flight77's picture

Le Pen voters won´t support Sarkozy. At least 50% won´t give hime their vote.
He is too much out of touch with the people outside of Paris. 
With Hollande a guy shows up who wants to press soe more money out of the pockets of the Germans.
French Banks are heavy invested in Spanish Bonds.
If the ECB wouldn´t have taken the garbage of PNB they would already be bust.

ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

sad to say ... you may be right (not coming at you personally mind you ... just your stated implication).  But there is the harsh edge of reality to what you post ......  

Joebloinvestor's picture

Get ready for a French speaking version of Greece.

theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

apart from the suburbs where the language is arabic

PaperBear's picture

"focus on tax rises over austerity" ?

The unmentioned third option is to leave the f**king euro currency.

ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

this has to be nominated as one of the 'posts of the day'!

Diablo's picture

CNN International (NOT the american CNN) doing live french election results.


LukeWorm's picture

Official??  That's exit polls, nothing else.


Scalaris's picture

Le Pen: 20.0% : The adjustment of societal norms to the abrupt contraction of the global, over-leveraged economic systems and the reversion towards intraterritorial political ideologies of right-wing populism.

falak pema's picture

Looks more like 18%. French honor has been saved; 20% was a shocker just by crossing into the next deca level. 

Its funny  how numbers can confort or alarm just by changing the slant slightly. That's human nature for u!

Le Figaro - Flash Présidentielle : Les résultats définitifs du premier tour