The First French Official Results Are In

Tyler Durden's picture




 

8 pm has just passed in France, and all the polls are now closed, which means official preliminary data is now allowed - the first results from IPSOS are in, and are as follows:

  • Francois Hollande: 28.4% (28.8% latest) - with victory virtually assured in the runoff round on May 6, it is now Hollande's election to lose. Could he? Yes - read here how Sarkozy can still catch up per DB.
  • Nicholas Sarkozy: 25.5% (26.1% latest) - make the runoff round
  • Marine Le Pen: 20.0% (18.5% latest) - extreme right: much better than expected as nationalism is back with a bang.
  • Jean-Luc Melenchon: 11.7% - extreme left: best communist showing since 1981 yet weaker than expected.
  • Francois Bayrou: 8.5%
  • Eva Joly: 2.0%
  • the others are irrelevant.

Big win for Hollande but even more stunning victory for extreme right winger Le Pen, which only proves that nationalism is back in Europe with a vengeance.

Visually:

From Reuters:

Far-rightist Marine Le Pen threw France's presidential race wide open on Sunday by scoring nearly 20 percent in the first round - votes that may determine the runoff between Socialist favourite Francois Hollande and conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy.

 

Hollande led Sarkozy by about 29 to 26 percent in reliable computer projections broadcast after polling stations closed, and the two will meet in a head-to-head decider on May 6.

 

But Le Pen's record score of 18-20 percent was the sensation of the night, beating her father's 2002 result and outpolling hard leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon, in fourth place on 11 percent. Centrist Francois Bayrou finished fifth on less than 10 percent.

 

Le Pen, who took over the anti-immigration National Front in early 2011, wants jobs reserved for French nationals at a time when jobless claims are at a 12-year high. She also advocates abandoning the euro currency and restoring monetary policy to Paris.

 

Her score reflected a surge in anti-establishment populist parties in many euro zone countries from Amsterdam to Athens as austerity and the debt crisis bite.

 

Voter surveys show about half of her supporters would back Sarkozy in a second round and perhaps one fifth would vote for Hollande, making her a potential kingmaker in the runoff.

 

Jean-Marie Le Pen's 16.9 percent score in the 2002 first round caused a political earthquake, knocking then Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin out of the runoff and forcing left-wing voters to rally behind conservative Jacques Chirac.

 

Sarkozy, 57, has painted himself as the safest pair of hands to lead France and the euro zone in turbulent times, but Sunday's vote appeared to be a strong rejection of his flashy style as well as his economic record.

 

If Hollande wins on May 6, joining a small minority of left-wing governments in Europe, he has promised to lead a push for a bigger focus on growth in the euro zone, mainly by adding pro-growth clauses to a European budget discipline treaty.

 

The prospect of a renegotiation of the pact is causing some concern in financial markets, as is Hollande's focus on tax rises over austerity at a time when sluggish growth is threatening France's ability to meet deficit-cutting goals.

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Sun, 04/22/2012 - 14:06 | 2364920 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

French conservatives.  The socialist siren song must not be loud enough.

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 14:20 | 2364952 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Sark better train well for the debate, as Hollande is the better orator and rhetorician by far.   But the French socialists always have a way to fumble the ball before the goal.  Seriously, their guilt complex is about having power, and they always mess up bad right before getting power.   

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 14:45 | 2365014 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

There is a traditional saying about the French in their voting politics:

« ... le coeur à gauche et le portefeuille à droite ... »

The heart on the Left, the wallet on the Right

 

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 15:33 | 2365078 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

There's more than French in that one.

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 17:47 | 2365362 redpill
redpill's picture

France is totally (Sark)hosed.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 00:28 | 2365984 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

When do WE get more than 2 party's?

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 18:24 | 2365426 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

I like "The Heart of the wallet" myself...

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 22:40 | 2365863 ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

never heard this ... thank you Mr Brussels.  By the way .. how are the 'politics' these days between the ... well you know what I mean about Belgium .... a lot of good people stuck in an impossible historical predicament

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 14:35 | 2364991 Banksters
Banksters's picture

Sarkozy in attempt to woo voters has now RELEASED PHOTOS OF his BABY AND BABY SITTER!!!

and voilà!
http://www.freakingnews.com/The-babysitter-Pictures-101881.asp

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 14:06 | 2364923 brewing
brewing's picture

/sark off

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 14:12 | 2364929 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

I wonder how long it will be before Sarkozy's trophy wife leaves him?

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 14:15 | 2364938 kaiten
kaiten's picture

5...4...3...

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 16:24 | 2365196 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

Someone needs to post that photo of Sarkozy's wife with Michelle Obama in the background shooting daggers with her eyes. Classic envy on display!

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 14:18 | 2364944 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

She won't!

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 14:14 | 2364935 o_rly
o_rly's picture

Yes, being an extreme right-winger means you don't want a neverending supply of foreigners coming into your country, a rejection of neo-liberal bullshit, and a return to sound economics.

Pfft, I'm done with this sham of a blog.

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 18:27 | 2365437 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

You obviously have got the gift of "shit for brains" don't you?

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 21:04 | 2365739 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

Le Pen is widely considered (including among themselves) as far right - this is about as uncontroversial as it gets.

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 14:15 | 2364937 Wooly
Wooly's picture

With Le Pen's vote swapping to Sarkozy in the 2nd round it's all still to play for, surely?

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 14:32 | 2364983 EuroSovietSerf
EuroSovietSerf's picture

Le Pen voters deeply mistrust Sarkozy. They'll mostly stay home now.

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 16:47 | 2365255 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

I think you nailed it  Sark + right is more than Hollande plus communists.... Look for S&P up tomorrow 3+%, europe is saved once again......  The lib media goofed once again.....

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 14:15 | 2364941 CClarity
CClarity's picture

Balkanization part deux - just a little further west.

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 14:19 | 2364949 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Spain? No! no! gimme a do-over... um... the Untied 'States' of Amnesia?

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 14:17 | 2364943 Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

While I'm pleased at Le Pen's showing, I believe it's a day late and a euro short for France given the muslim situation. The same may be said for England. Question is, will America follow?

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 14:21 | 2364955 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Bullish!  (Somebody had to say it).  

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 14:25 | 2364967 Ramboy
Ramboy's picture

Everything written on zerohedge is long term bullish.  

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 22:45 | 2365869 ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

atta boy ! .... sit at the head of the class.

 

controversy maybe ......  stuff you see no where else ... yes.  even Charlie Gasparino admires ZH!!!

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 14:24 | 2364961 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Follow what?

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 14:40 | 2364999 CH1
CH1's picture

Question is, will America follow?

It doesn't matter. The US guv is well past the point of no return. I will NOT be fixed, no matter what.

An idea to consider: How much time and energy do you spend on politics every week? Might it be more usefully spent in other ways?

Politics is an addiction.

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 15:08 | 2365044 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Who is the muslim candidate? Considering their power position in Europe, they must field a powerful one.

So who is he/she?

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 19:15 | 2365531 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

An Anon al Chonqing.

 

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 16:50 | 2365262 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

I Assume you are counting hood rats in that category.......  if so we are two weeks late and twenty Obamabucks short.....

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 14:28 | 2364973 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

It won't make any difference. The elites have screwed up everything everywhere and very soon it will be our turn to screw things up for them.

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 22:21 | 2365837 pkea
pkea's picture

isn't Hollande pushing for eurobonds?  that's telling a lot where who is behind him....

 

 le pen is the only one who can have any impact on the markets in the right direction.

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 14:32 | 2364981 APC
APC's picture

5 more years of Sarkozy.  Bet on it.  The right was the clear winner tonight.  Do the math...

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 14:33 | 2364985 EuroSovietSerf
EuroSovietSerf's picture

You assume a little too much that Le Pen voters love Sarkozy.

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 14:42 | 2365009 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

They do not like him at all, right u r, but in the end, better to have Sarko with the perspective being in power than the wildcard Hollande.

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 15:22 | 2365061 destiny
destiny's picture

Le PEN VOTERS DON'T LIKE SARKO AT ALL !

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 15:25 | 2365072 APC
APC's picture

No, I wouldn't say that that was true.  Truth is they hate him.  But Hollande is talking about giving voting rights to non citizen immigrants.  You think LePenists will get behind that?  No, I think we're looking at a "lesser of 2 evils" situation here, and I think they will deem Sarko to be just that...

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 15:29 | 2365075 destiny
destiny's picture

Lepenist voters are a non event, many of those votes are contest votes 

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 14:32 | 2364984 flight77
flight77's picture

Le Pen voters won´t support Sarkozy. At least 50% won´t give hime their vote.
He is too much out of touch with the people outside of Paris. 
With Hollande a guy shows up who wants to press soe more money out of the pockets of the Germans.
French Banks are heavy invested in Spanish Bonds.
If the ECB wouldn´t have taken the garbage of PNB they would already be bust.

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 22:49 | 2365882 ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

sad to say ... you may be right (not coming at you personally mind you ... just your stated implication).  But there is the harsh edge of reality to what you post ......  

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 14:33 | 2364987 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

Get ready for a French speaking version of Greece.

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 16:54 | 2365271 theMAXILOPEZpsycho
theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

apart from the suburbs where the language is arabic

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 14:34 | 2364989 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

"focus on tax rises over austerity" ?

The unmentioned third option is to leave the f**king euro currency.

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 22:50 | 2365886 ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

this has to be nominated as one of the 'posts of the day'!

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 14:37 | 2364997 Diablo
Diablo's picture

CNN International (NOT the american CNN) doing live french election results.

 

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 14:43 | 2365010 Earl of Chiswick
Earl of Chiswick's picture

  live stream in English of France twenty-four

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 14:41 | 2365002 LukeWorm
LukeWorm's picture

Official??  That's exit polls, nothing else.

 

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 14:50 | 2365021 Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

Le Pen: 20.0% : The adjustment of societal norms to the abrupt contraction of the global, over-leveraged economic systems and the reversion towards intraterritorial political ideologies of right-wing populism.

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 06:37 | 2366109 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Looks more like 18%. French honor has been saved; 20% was a shocker just by crossing into the next deca level. 

Its funny  how numbers can confort or alarm just by changing the slant slightly. That's human nature for u!

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