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The First French Official Results Are In
8 pm has just passed in France, and all the polls are now closed, which means official preliminary data is now allowed - the first results from IPSOS are in, and are as follows:
- Francois Hollande: 28.4% (28.8% latest) - with victory virtually assured in the runoff round on May 6, it is now Hollande's election to lose. Could he? Yes - read here how Sarkozy can still catch up per DB.
- Nicholas Sarkozy: 25.5% (26.1% latest) - make the runoff round
- Marine Le Pen: 20.0% (18.5% latest) - extreme right: much better than expected as nationalism is back with a bang.
- Jean-Luc Melenchon: 11.7% - extreme left: best communist showing since 1981 yet weaker than expected.
- Francois Bayrou: 8.5%
- Eva Joly: 2.0%
- the others are irrelevant.
Big win for Hollande but even more stunning victory for extreme right winger Le Pen, which only proves that nationalism is back in Europe with a vengeance.
Visually:
From Reuters:
Far-rightist Marine Le Pen threw France's presidential race wide open on Sunday by scoring nearly 20 percent in the first round - votes that may determine the runoff between Socialist favourite Francois Hollande and conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy.
Hollande led Sarkozy by about 29 to 26 percent in reliable computer projections broadcast after polling stations closed, and the two will meet in a head-to-head decider on May 6.
But Le Pen's record score of 18-20 percent was the sensation of the night, beating her father's 2002 result and outpolling hard leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon, in fourth place on 11 percent. Centrist Francois Bayrou finished fifth on less than 10 percent.
Le Pen, who took over the anti-immigration National Front in early 2011, wants jobs reserved for French nationals at a time when jobless claims are at a 12-year high. She also advocates abandoning the euro currency and restoring monetary policy to Paris.
Her score reflected a surge in anti-establishment populist parties in many euro zone countries from Amsterdam to Athens as austerity and the debt crisis bite.
Voter surveys show about half of her supporters would back Sarkozy in a second round and perhaps one fifth would vote for Hollande, making her a potential kingmaker in the runoff.
Jean-Marie Le Pen's 16.9 percent score in the 2002 first round caused a political earthquake, knocking then Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin out of the runoff and forcing left-wing voters to rally behind conservative Jacques Chirac.
Sarkozy, 57, has painted himself as the safest pair of hands to lead France and the euro zone in turbulent times, but Sunday's vote appeared to be a strong rejection of his flashy style as well as his economic record.
If Hollande wins on May 6, joining a small minority of left-wing governments in Europe, he has promised to lead a push for a bigger focus on growth in the euro zone, mainly by adding pro-growth clauses to a European budget discipline treaty.
The prospect of a renegotiation of the pact is causing some concern in financial markets, as is Hollande's focus on tax rises over austerity at a time when sluggish growth is threatening France's ability to meet deficit-cutting goals.
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French conservatives. The socialist siren song must not be loud enough.
Sark better train well for the debate, as Hollande is the better orator and rhetorician by far. But the French socialists always have a way to fumble the ball before the goal. Seriously, their guilt complex is about having power, and they always mess up bad right before getting power.
There is a traditional saying about the French in their voting politics:
« ... le coeur à gauche et le portefeuille à droite ... »
The heart on the Left, the wallet on the Right
There's more than French in that one.
France is totally (Sark)hosed.
When do WE get more than 2 party's?
I like "The Heart of the wallet" myself...
never heard this ... thank you Mr Brussels. By the way .. how are the 'politics' these days between the ... well you know what I mean about Belgium .... a lot of good people stuck in an impossible historical predicament
Sarkozy in attempt to woo voters has now RELEASED PHOTOS OF his BABY AND BABY SITTER!!!
and voilà!
http://www.freakingnews.com/The-babysitter-Pictures-101881.asp
/sark off
I wonder how long it will be before Sarkozy's trophy wife leaves him?
5...4...3...
Someone needs to post that photo of Sarkozy's wife with Michelle Obama in the background shooting daggers with her eyes. Classic envy on display!
She won't!
Yes, being an extreme right-winger means you don't want a neverending supply of foreigners coming into your country, a rejection of neo-liberal bullshit, and a return to sound economics.
Pfft, I'm done with this sham of a blog.
You obviously have got the gift of "shit for brains" don't you?
Le Pen is widely considered (including among themselves) as far right - this is about as uncontroversial as it gets.
With Le Pen's vote swapping to Sarkozy in the 2nd round it's all still to play for, surely?
Le Pen voters deeply mistrust Sarkozy. They'll mostly stay home now.
I think you nailed it Sark + right is more than Hollande plus communists.... Look for S&P up tomorrow 3+%, europe is saved once again...... The lib media goofed once again.....
Balkanization part deux - just a little further west.
Spain? No! no! gimme a do-over... um... the Untied 'States' of Amnesia?
While I'm pleased at Le Pen's showing, I believe it's a day late and a euro short for France given the muslim situation. The same may be said for England. Question is, will America follow?
Bullish! (Somebody had to say it).
Everything written on zerohedge is long term bullish.
atta boy ! .... sit at the head of the class.
controversy maybe ...... stuff you see no where else ... yes. even Charlie Gasparino admires ZH!!!
Follow what?
Question is, will America follow?
It doesn't matter. The US guv is well past the point of no return. I will NOT be fixed, no matter what.
An idea to consider: How much time and energy do you spend on politics every week? Might it be more usefully spent in other ways?
Politics is an addiction.
Who is the muslim candidate? Considering their power position in Europe, they must field a powerful one.
So who is he/she?
An Anon al Chonqing.
I Assume you are counting hood rats in that category....... if so we are two weeks late and twenty Obamabucks short.....
It won't make any difference. The elites have screwed up everything everywhere and very soon it will be our turn to screw things up for them.
isn't Hollande pushing for eurobonds? that's telling a lot where who is behind him....
le pen is the only one who can have any impact on the markets in the right direction.
5 more years of Sarkozy. Bet on it. The right was the clear winner tonight. Do the math...
You assume a little too much that Le Pen voters love Sarkozy.
They do not like him at all, right u r, but in the end, better to have Sarko with the perspective being in power than the wildcard Hollande.
Le PEN VOTERS DON'T LIKE SARKO AT ALL !
No, I wouldn't say that that was true. Truth is they hate him. But Hollande is talking about giving voting rights to non citizen immigrants. You think LePenists will get behind that? No, I think we're looking at a "lesser of 2 evils" situation here, and I think they will deem Sarko to be just that...
Lepenist voters are a non event, many of those votes are contest votes
Le Pen voters won´t support Sarkozy. At least 50% won´t give hime their vote.
He is too much out of touch with the people outside of Paris.
With Hollande a guy shows up who wants to press soe more money out of the pockets of the Germans.
French Banks are heavy invested in Spanish Bonds.
If the ECB wouldn´t have taken the garbage of PNB they would already be bust.
sad to say ... you may be right (not coming at you personally mind you ... just your stated implication). But there is the harsh edge of reality to what you post ......
Get ready for a French speaking version of Greece.
apart from the suburbs where the language is arabic
"focus on tax rises over austerity" ?
The unmentioned third option is to leave the f**king euro currency.
this has to be nominated as one of the 'posts of the day'!
CNN International (NOT the american CNN) doing live french election results.
live stream in English of France twenty-four
Official?? That's exit polls, nothing else.
Le Pen: 20.0% : The adjustment of societal norms to the abrupt contraction of the global, over-leveraged economic systems and the reversion towards intraterritorial political ideologies of right-wing populism.
Looks more like 18%. French honor has been saved; 20% was a shocker just by crossing into the next deca level.
Its funny how numbers can confort or alarm just by changing the slant slightly. That's human nature for u!
Le Figaro - Flash Présidentielle : Les résultats définitifs du premier tour
Before anyone compares Le Pen to Ron Paul: this is not a fair comparison. She wants a closed society with government control of monetary policy (and the economy in general), RP wants the opposite!
I read the other comment before yours. But hey, who knows and who cares?
I actually took a look at her positions on certain issues (like monetary policy) and she can't be compared to RP.
She is a closer to facism then to libertarianism, she is a collectivist.
Judge her independently if you want:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_Le_Pen#Ideology
She is still the clostest thing to a french Ron Paul.
Hollande is like a french Stalin and Sarkozy is like a French Dominique Strauss-Kahn (a goldsteiner)
Possible.
Made me laugh. Far right wing result to be explained because of coming back of nationalism.
US citizen at kicking the can again...
.
Live stream of AnAnonymous performing "made me laugh":
http://28.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lo6s40A7iR1qmt8ipo1_500.gif
Yes, you certainly are.
Ah commenting on US citizen at kicking the can is kicking the can itself.
How US citizenish...
.
Ah, ignoring your own contradictions while promoting US citizenism:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/krugman-rebutts-sic-spitznagel-princeton-g...
How Chinese Easter Island Indo-European US citizenism citizenish.
Now please follow ancient and eternal Chinese citizenism nature when being proven wrong:
1 - Deny as fantasy, using much offuscation.
2 - Ignore and flee like running dog.
3 - Repeation as necessary.
Chinese citizenism subterfuge is predictable like sunrise every mornings.
I'm french canadian, following the french election closely. Believe me guys, the vast majority of Le Pen's electors won't vote for Sarkozy on the 2nd tour. They just wont vote. François Hollande is the new President.
By the way, Marine Le Pen is not further right than most Republicans. The ''extreme right'' etiquette is quite ridiculous.
The event has to be suspenseful, has it not?
In the same vein, the Germans would never vote this extension of ECB printing policy etc...
Le Pen is branded "Extreme right" because she is not gobbling the goldstein golden balls as requested by tel aviv.
Le Pen spokeperson has just been treated of being of ''fascist'' on tv by Melanchon (communist under new label) spokeperson.
I never been on the far right... but im very happy of these results. Hollande wont be has good as Sarkozy to kick the can the down the road, and i like to see the world establishment freaking out with Le Pen score.
Yeah let's not sugarcoat it, Marine Le Pen is branded extreme right because that's what she is. She is sharing the very same ideologies with her daddy, the very first president of National Front.
She is the soft face of anti-semitic and anti-arab racism, thinly veiled by the party's policies of euroscepticism and opposition to rampant immigration, by promoting ethnocentric protectionism and general social conservatism.
The reason that right wing partisanship has been spreading throughout Europe, in the recent post-crisis years, is the increasing disfranchisement of an increasingly dispirited populous, thereby causing the expansion of a voting base most susceptible to such political pandering.
The same thing is being replicated in Denmark with the far-right anti-immigrant and europhobic Danish People's party, in the Netherlands with Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom and more recently in Greece with the Golden Dawn.
To even compare Ron Paul with Le Pen is deplorably imprecise, since the former seeks the abolition of a corrupt monetary system, which has been cannibalizing the finances of the American people for the past two centuries, along with the decrement of the unrestrained funding of an inefficient military–industrial complex, while the latter supports intolerant ideologies and xenophobic illiberalism.
oh yeh, and don't forget Ron Paul has basically sent an open message to all Mexicans, and wannabe US residents, "If I get elected, come on over" hasn't he...
And the soon to be formed "Red Dawn Party" of America. Here's our (albeit brief) manifesto: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F3iRNd9-sy4&feature=player_detailpage
come on! .... your post is weak. .. even this idiotic Amerikan knows that Geert Wilders is no 'fascist' per your 'analysis' ... come back with better 'presentation' &/or argumentation. Remember this is ZH not your typical 'news' media blog ....
Then you must be an idiot since the word 'fascist' is absent from my post for a reason, mainly because the aforementioned political parties have been used as examples for the spread of right-wing ideologies due to the increasing prevalence of social inwardness, countervailing the impact of the effects of globalization through an overleveraged, and currently in the process of contraction, monetary system, forcing lower socioeconomic populational segments to revert to a state of suspended social evolution.
The spread of liberalism stops with the spread fo wealth within the social layers and social groups which are affected the most by an economic collapse, are most likely the ones which "represent" said segment in the in the sense of education, political attitude and social tendencies.
As a percentage, it is more probable for such socioeconomic groups to already hold more conservative ideologies and be susceptible to nationalistic point of view, paired with ethnocentrically-fueled religiopolitical beliefs.
As such, due to the potency of social identity, a more powerful sense of community is prevalent within such social subgroups, increasing the probability of susceptibility of illiberal ideologies, which are essentially opposed to the "expansive" politics of wealth-fueled urbanity, produced by the financially affranchised middle class.
As a result the numbers of these broad, yet marginalised social groups, with an already developed introversive nature, act as breeding grounds for the rapid spread of over-conservative political views such as preservation of conservative social standards, preservation of national identity through a strengthened economy, safeguarding of the prevalent religious belief etc.
Clowns like Geert Wilders pander to the very same demographic by appearing as reasonably conservative and concerned with safeguarding the national integrity, when in fact his black and white views are imposed to people who are unintelligent enough to perceive a black and white solution as the only solution of a problem which requires everything but.
e.g. Anti-immigration isn't in fact a solution for the unemployment, Islam isn't the enemy of Christianity and gay people aren't spawns of the devil.
If you fail to see the way people like Wilders incite sectarian contestation by manipulating people who are easily receptive of his soft and well concealed rhetoric, then I regret to inform you that the world is far more complicated than the array of political labeling which you might be aware of.
LE PEN Voters are for a good number protest votes ! the figure is therefore not a reflection of extremism. Sarko MUST GO....no more of him ! BUT HOLLANDE is a CAVIAR Left....He will do just as bad as Sarko when he is elected...and will take his orders from above just like Sarko did....we are Doomed....................................................
I would have voted for Le Pen. Great that she got 20% but to bad that she didn't go on to the next round. We need a completely new vision for Europe. Communism and capitalism/liberalism where stupid ideas from the beggining and have now collapsed. We need a stable system built on local economies, local democracy, stable currencies and ethnic homogenity.
You were doing good right up until "ethnic homogenity" (sic).
DATS RAYCISS!
Whats wrong with ethnic homogeneity? Why on earth should France (or any country for that matter) allow itself to be overrun with people that do not share its history, language, culture, or values?
It certainly isnt doing us any good in the US, this place is a powder keg waiting for a spark.
Hey Led, follow your own logic to France/UK/Portugal/Spain.... add the soon to be late, not so great USA.
Said countries went and raped/pillaged/burnt/bombed/subjugated how many countries? Put the worst of your people there? Did it for centuries?
It's merely the cycles correcting themselves. If the EU is to burn because of it's Arab problem, and are afraid of it, should have started making some amends, ne? Something? At least to the Arabs in said Euroland nations?
Just cycles, your fore-father's gift to you all.
A false prosperity, built on plunder and a torn global social fabric that wants the white world to Suffer.
Deal with it. Or do something.
ori
/socfo-r-u-cultural/
Sarkozy is toast ..history ...a plucked turkey ...a dead parrot
as for the other village idiots, 'Wow' spoilt for choice!
..choose your torture weapon, France is for the chop whichever way
Hollande is such a fuckin' clown !!! Hahahaa... very funny tv show now... He's begining his declaration now. Will be a great comedy !!!
Yep unfortunately...France has NO Robespierre around to make the change happen !!
Off with their heads!!!
I just switched the tv channel to see CNN's coverage of the french election: interview with a guy about Detroit. They just dont give a shit about the french election.
...here you go. http://www.france24.com/en/livefeed
I'm francophone. Im watching the french channel directly. Just wanted to see the US coverage, wich doesnt seem to exist.
Why bother to cover the French election in the US. The US taxpayer will end up having to bail out France no matter who is elected,
with what money? Lol, Borrowed from the chinese?
This just in we can't pronounce these names, nor do we care.
Le Pen! Le Pen!
Vi Va Le Fantacy Island.
Ribbit. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5oEYMGL0ZtA&feature=related
And just as in the US and everywhere in the world, it won't make a shit's difference which idiot the French elect. Sarkozy running against a socialist - he is a socialist, what the hell is the difference? This truly is hysterical. As for Le Pen, not gonna lie, I'd bone her.
please .... do not 'reality' intrude on anyone's precious 'political' thoughts .......
..that was pretty funny ... like the secret service agents in the USA having a crush on Sarah Palin ... but Todd Palin would clean the SS guys like Bruce Lee in his greatest movies (trust me globe .... Todd Palin is one bad mutha f*c*er)
Both Hollande and Sarcozy are j00s so I wonder how Le pen supporters feel about that?
"I would rather have a German division in front of me than a French one behind me." -General George S. Patton
Marine Le Pen just said : ''this historial score of 20% for the Front National is a huge victory againts the elites, the establishment and the system''. Wow pretty cool ! Where would u hear things like that from someone who get this score ?!
I think Hollande will accelerate the european mess with his policy that are totally disconnected from reality. Wich means that Le Pen will set a new hsitorical score in the next presidential election five years from now...
Five years from now... France (Europe) will be in ruins!
yeah ... but give Gavroche credit for probably an accurate call ....
What! You mean the elections aren't fixed like they are in the US? Sacre bleu!
Increasing nationalism on the way, whatever country.
Left or Right won't matter, take your pick, whichever candidate appeals to nationlistic sentiments the most effectively will get the vote.
I'm happy with the nationalist (Le Pen) showing, 20% is huge and the biggest for the party ever! Even her father didn't do so well back in 2002. The nationalism movement is growing all over Europe, the Euro can't continue to take the stresses being put on it.
What can Hollande do in the end anyway? Not much as dictates are delivered from Brussels, if they don't exit the union soon they will be hollowed out and lose their capacity to leave and the Euro straight jacket is strecthing around them, Le Pen knows this. The others know it as well (Sarkozy, Hollande) but aren't willing to change the status quo as much if at all in the end. Instead, Hollande will continue down the EuroUnion road as France continues to give away its sovereignty. It is hard to believe that the French aren't pushing harder for a way out of the Euro...
Merkel must be freaking out : her midget will be replace by a clown.
Angela doesn't like the midget....he called her fat.
yeah but how many men are willing to take a taste of Angela like Sarko?
Forbes says:
"The French election previews the U.S. November election contest between incumbent Barack Obama and challenger Mitt Romney"
http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2012/04/22/french-social...
The US election is Left versus far Left hardly comparable......
With Hollande, the shit won't hit the fan... The fan will be thrown in the shit.
big lol !
The Rothschild gang will select the next president...the sheeple vote is just for show.
Look.. Even if Hollande wins, it wont matter much. Sure, he has been playing the good ol game of speeking to the utopian part of the voter brain, promising lower retirement age, milionaire tax, higher wages etc, but as soon as he enters office, all the promises will be long gone and he will continue the path already chosen by special interrests.
Look at Helle Thorning Schmidt in Denmark. She was elected on what has become the countrys biggest political lie. All that matters is power. I dont beleave for a second, that a Hollande victory will change much, if at all. All politicians are liars, and our only hope of regaining our freedom if to wait for the system to implode.
In the mean time, keep stacking, bitchez!
The only trap is the waiting one does for an answer...
''...our only hope of regaining our freedom if to wait for the system to implode''
Exactly. Thats why François Hollande election will be a step forward.
Change you can't believe in?
Pour ceux qui comprends le Francais......... en direct (live coverage)
http://www.francetv.fr/2012/
Vive le nationalisme de Le Pen........:-)
D'accord avec toi. Le mandat de Hollande sera un catastrophe encore pire que Sarko, de sorte qu'à la prochaine élection présidentielle dans 5 ans, le FN établira un nouveau record historique !
Je me souviens..........en plus, je suis American! ;)
au moins ils ont un choix, tel qu'ils est...en Amerique on a le choix entre mauvais et pire, avec les memes idees
Viva Le French Fry!
Great opportunity to short the Euro against the GBP and against the US $
Hollande will have for at least a year to show his voters he will fight the Euro-ECB-German straightjacket
So the Euro will loose 5 to 10% against others currecies.
Then Hollande will step back and licking his wounds he will admit he was wrong and the more austerity the better it is in the end, because he has no others options under the European treaty of Lisbonne .The treaty allow a country to step out of the european union but that will amount to economic suicide for France already burdened with a 90% debt to GNP ratio,
For France the choice is zero, and the straightjacket of debt+Euro fiscal discipline is better than total collapse.
the french people are doomed.
http://expose2.wordpress.com
How many are voting for Hollande to end it sooner?
Breaking news: Dutch government collapses as far-right party leaves coalition refusing to accept terms of fiscal compact: "We will not stand by as Dutch pensioners pay for Brussels' diktats".
There's that term again, "far right"...does "far right" mean doing something that academic liberal bureaucrats are afraid of?
Seems like the EU apparatchiks forgot about The Vote.
of course it is almost no difference who wins because in the end they all do what the 10y yield is telling them to do, but it is really striking that French go for socialist at time like this. It is really an unbielevable nation. Sure, they have a bit lower debt level than periphery, but all the structural problems are very much alike: lack of innovation, too expensive social system and too large public sector. Instead of admitting it and at least trying to reform, they are blaming ECB, globalization, speculators, rating agencies, Germany, peripheries or anything else for their lack of competitiveness. Now they want even more of socialism. They will default like we all will in some form, but unlike Portugal or Greece which will work it out somehow, France will be drown in blood. Once social system collapses, I am afraid there will be nothing stopping the suburbs, while the rest France will wake up in disbelief how could we, the most perfect nation in history, could end up in here and will go for even more crazy candidates than current
good post .... sure hope you are more wrong than right .... but somehow I doubt it
@Scalaris
you get it , you cannot compare MLP to RP. Even though she has some flavors of the rejection of a duopoly chokehold on politics, her program is very much state centered. A careful analysis shows that and french ZH readers will easily be able to understand what i am talking about
maybe ... but Geert Wilders is no 'fascist' ... sorry even this idiot Amerikan knows that .. therefore Scalaris is way off the 'accuracy' mark!
This will be the biggest voting corruption ever. Epic! Ass hat Zarkozy will come out on top no matter what.
Duel Holland – Sarkozy in the second round of presidential Le Soir (google trans from French)
- Francois Hollande (27.65% of votes)
- Nicolas Sarkozy (26.56%)
- Marine Le Pen comes in third place (19.73%)
- Jean-Luc Melenchon (10.64%)
- Francois Bayrou (9.21%)
Historic score for the far right of Le Pen – Reached symbolic threshold of 20% Le Soir (google trans from French)
Row over exit polls engulfs French presidential election
Belgium-based newspaper Le Soir have vowed to do “their journalistic duty” and publish the exit polls as soon as possible.
Anything but Le Pen. Think easy (read stupid) solutions to complicated problems and more Breiviks. We have seen enough of these fascists in Europe already.
Latest results far closer than that, not that Fleet Street will acknowledge it!
Headlines SHOULD read: Virtual dead heat between Right and Left in France.
Euro Shorts are running Fleet Street at this point, with US financial media largely now taking its guidance from the UK.
And that is a mistake.
Also note that major pipeline into Turkey reported non-functional.
That means the Brent spread gets wider again, which usually also boosts the Euro, Yen, and Resource Currencies.
Worldwide Market Shorts United are clearly going to continue to try very hard. But it may be THEY who face "headwinds" as the day progresses.
another good post ....
Seems like the US primary contests. You vote for the guy you really want in the first round, then hold your nose in the second round.
I think we should all make a contribution to Hollande. Let's trash Europe now so we can start spending our gold and silver. Yea!
P.S. I'm also voting for Obama. We are never going to get decent leadership until everyone see's the Rethuglicans and Democraps are useless.
Latest results : Banksters 100%
Kleptocrats 0%.
Peons reassured that their best interests will be kept at heart.
Here's what's coming.
France wants to suspend the Schengen Agreement.
Le Pen's win gives Sarkozy the license to do so. All Sarkozy has to do is convince a minor percentage of Le Pen's supporters to take the election from Hollande.
Sarkozy will probably squeeze out the win. He only needs to make up a 4% gap, and he'll probably do that.
http://beforeitsnews.com/story/2051/580/Obama:_Three_Videos_His_Lawyers_...
Obama: Three Video's His Lawyers Are Trying To Get Taken Down Right Now !
Friday, April 20, 2012 10:23
.
as the stomach turns.
Lets face it Sarkozy tried his hardest to con the rest of the EZ with 'France is going protect the Euro and the EU blah blah blah' all along France is a goose hora away from a fiscal meltdown. Hilarious. So, if that guy doesn't get in, the EUR will be slaughtered, spreads will blow out and his "defending the EURO" at all costs won't mean anything.