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The First FX Prints Are In...
And it is not looking pretty for the dollar. Both the USDJPY and the USDCHF are tumbling following weaker pretrade indications, confirming that the market is indeed starting to listen to the complete cacafony from DC. Ironically, in a world in which USD weakness is SPX strength, will correlation desks send the ES to infinity even as the key marginal driving force is the ever larger fear of US bankruptcy? Or will we finally get decoupling.
USDJPY:
USDCHF:
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OOpsie!!!
New troll in town
data sez 11 weeks, 2 days, but never saw him (it?) till last few days... he/she/it all over every thread now - like a kid with a new toy
All good trolls make several puppet accounts in anticipation of their banning.
Nice call on short gold!
i like D cups. maybe even double d cups
Nice!
what do the blue horizontal lines at the bottom of the charts mean?
Current prints.
Watch it bro. That first step is a killer.
Tyler, I have to disagree with you here.
It looks to me like the dollar is coming off support and is poised to RALLY. It's already to 74.45 Next stop before a serious decline looks like 77.5. The EUR looks to be trading opposite the USD.
While I agree that ultimately the USD is toast, you seem to continually jump the gun on it's demise. Relax, it'll get there. But first there has to be more than a few pump n' dumps.
USD/JPY certainly looks bearish, although it seems ready to bounce w/in a downward channel. Sort of makes me wonder if Japan is due for a deflationary event (whodanode). But USD overall looks very bullish..!
gaps
Long Zimbabwe Dollars!
Could you add a pic of the EUR/USD ?
Wow, Tyler Durden is very receptive today.
I think Tyler recognizes an inflection point when it slaps him side the head and just wants to share the pure joy of official insanity run amok.
Seems the institutions are pretty far from the point of "realization". I can't get one of the biggest bank trust companies in the US to allow me to solicit a physical PM purchase on behalf of a trustee. Paper PMs only... the Ponzi lives on.
Hey Cog!
Can you give us your psycho-analysis of the Norway sniper's manifesto? Its different from any other I have seen.
Thanks,
He plagairized a good bit from the Unabomber's Manifesto.
http://bit.ly/o4WDg1
Well whaddya know! Identical in parts!
it is simply hate driven..
Ain't like this been a new line of thought for him now, is it....
Good vision, right cynicism, excellent clarity of thought, as in sanity.
Thanks! If I choose "US Dollar Index" then it doesnt show me a drop there?
Wait a few hours.
I will sleep by then I guess
The USD/CHF JPG doesn't link properly; I get the USD/JPY JPG instead.
you can just replace the JPY in the URL with CHF
Thanks!
What about EURUSD, TD? Where do you get this data besides Bloomberg??
try fxstreet.com both eur and usd suck now usd more
http://netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-exchange-rates/real...
Thanks, everyone!
Not as bad as I would expect given the likelihood of default risk. Seriously, I thought this would be worse. We have friends in Asia, obviously.
Nobody actually believes we will default...
now what might happen , does the markets go up because of DOLLAR down move or Markets go down because of this DEBT DEAL FIASCO
At some point both the dollar and the market go down http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2N8gJSMoOJc
Thankfully reality is not correlated with Wall Street fantasies so at some point Uncle Shit will say hello to Mr Fan
Who is the tallest midget in the room?
Larry Summers.
No, uh.... Robert Reich
No.... Hmmmmm. Christina Rhomer.
No! I know! Paul Krugman!
The Bernak
Timmah Two hands!
Nah. Larry Summers
Just wait untill near end market close in Azia and when no news can't brightens their day, then you'll see some movement.
And if this mess takes another 2 to 3 more days...
LOOK TURKEY VULTURES!!
LOL
Yeah, as if everything in Europe's been fixed in the last few days, too.
Maybe Juncker, Sarko, et.al., will light another fuse.
Sweet.
I would expect decoupling of the ES from the USD this week. Expect a market radically incomparable to the one we have grown to know and hate.
Why? I have been expecting this every week for the past two years and alas more push, pump and little dump
Best comment of the thread.
TELL ME MORE!!
I might even slip in a 20 ;)
What happened to using a dollar?
Inflation. :-)
Same thing happened to her rack.
Try Switerland, the smallest fiat banknote is now USD 12.33 and I can't imagine strippers like coins (and at the high-end a single piece of SNB cotton-linen blend can buy $1,233.65 of happy endings).
Once again REGULAR PEOPLE couldn't give a rat's ass about any of this. They don't trade this nonsense - and aren't worried or affected by these DC games. This is only for folks who push numbers around for a living. Often far too good a living, mind you.
How is this not all baked in for the last 2 weeks and Dow rallies. Sell the news is imminent. Right now the dollar has nowhere to go but up since the EUR (S&P) has nowhere to go but down further devaluation and only they are subject to a sovereign road block. Who would have thought we would see the day that QE must continue globally along with 0% rates and never before seen propaganda coming from all sources of govt to promote the idea that "Deflation is evil" and that in order to save the system the peasants must be stripped of all their purchasing power.
Meanwhile we have 100 oil..Enjoy..All that is left now is exponential more of the same with a 3 Trillion QE program being announced, confiscation of Gold/Silver, margin hikes, another 2 stimulus programs and releasing all of the oil reserves just to keep us above water level and all to pretend that this is sustainable. Forget about the 2000 crash and 2008 this is going to be the crash to end all ponzi schemes and it will occur in 4 days times.
The moment a nation defaults in the Eurozone due to riots and political resistance it all ends.
Don't you need more balance sheet for QE3? And Raise the debt ceiling just to fill the BS up with more debt?
Just cant see the Chairsatan managing to do it without a very angry population (both domestic and international ) on his hands!
They just went from 13-column to 15-column paper...Voila - more balance sheet. :D
I'm not sure we are going to see it all crash in four (4) days, but the writing is on the wall.......blood is the streets......and it's all down here from now. The EE and TBTF still want this facade to continue for as long as it can so they can rob everything not nailed down.
Limit down, bitchez! I like this new layout by the way. Kewww!
Massive stock drop would reverse the USD drop, as margin calls create uber-demand for USD.
I expect to see all assets tank if the stock market drops substantially (even gold and silver) for a short period while the instant and massive liquidity crunch unfolds.
From there, the USD will drop and those assets will rebound, but beware. I think this current "flight to safety" in advance of equity market opens is a head-fake.
--Brian
Your expectation sucks
Respectfully,
Net foreign investment in the USA in the last few years has almost all gone into the debt markets with less than 10% going into equity, thus a margin call situation because of a blow off to the downside in stocks would be like a candle next to a medium sized star. The volume of the daily ForEx markets would not even notice such a margin event. Anyway, a US equity collapse large enough to trigger widespread margin calls for foreigners would trigger a lot more selling by them which would then be expected to be turned into their local currency thus swamping the demand for dollars because of lower stock prices.
TYLER D.: Hey, like the new format but what did you do with the spellcheckerz? Most of Uds are spell chex kripples.
Pirates and Emperors (from SchoolHouse Rock makers of How a Bill becomes a law)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEO3RWnHb4E&feature=related
Is this an exhaustion gap or an island gap ?
And where are the Bollinger bands and moving averages.
They're the only useful indicators in FX trading nowadays.
Oh and Goldman / Deutsche Bank FX trading outlooks, with negative sign in front of it of course.
Lets collude two failing systems into one. No one is looking.
Ben S Bernanke: The Dodd-Frank Act
A second major objective of financial reform is to mitigate the threats to financial stability
posed by the too-big-to-fail problem. Here the Dodd-Frank Act takes a two-pronged
approach. The first prong empowers the Federal Reserve to reduce a SIFI’s probability of
failure through tougher prudential regulation and supervision, including enhanced risk-based
capital and leverage requirements, liquidity requirements, single-counterparty credit limits,
stress testing, an early remediation regime, and activities restrictions. The Federal Reserve
and other agencies face the ongoing challenge of aligning domestic regulations with
international agreements, including the Basel III requirements for globally active banks.
These efforts are going well; in particular, the Federal Reserve expects to issue proposed
rules on the oversight of SIFIs later this summer and, working with other banking agencies, is
on schedule to implement Basel III.
http://www.bis.org/review/r110722a.pdf?frames=0
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mfMG66LtVU&feature=related
Shaping up to be one wild-ass trading day
Eat your peas and drink plenty of milk and remember, per excrement Bernank, BTFD.
Please keep your hands and feet inside the vehicle. The DC Insano Rollcoaster is about to begin. Principled individuals and pregnant women should not involve themselves in this ride. Be sure to check out the gift shop for all your interest rate and FX swap T-shirts and accessories.
Eurusd 1.436 hasnt moved much yet
Shit I miss the John Noyce FX weekly update. can anybody send or post a link?
thanks.
i can send an mp3 of Noyce-inspired tounge-and-lip sound effects, if u want.
Though the dollar walks through the valley of the shadow of death, I am not afraid. I have gold. My cup runneth over.
+ $1600
You and me too brother.
Wink Wink
TD
These are of themselves not very big gap (pre-) opens. If you were observing 2,3,5 cent gaps -- well that would be something to get up about. If they maintain this sort of range they'll probably be closed fairly quickly after opening.
That's cause many don't believe for a minute we won't raise the debt ceiling.
Based upon history and past performance, they'd be right to believe that -- and follow the trend.
It's a test balloon. There will be a "compromise" of some sort JIT to open the morning with smiles and sunshine.
The test is to see just how much damage COULD be done. It think Congress has just shat their pantaloons.
Congress? Naah, clueless. besides, they're probably still hungover.
ha, not even out of bed with their 10K hookers.
Wonder if that is debit or credit???
Cash-only, they know who they're dealing with.
Coming Soon: gold or silver only.
Oh, that'd be sooooo nice.
Open the morning with smiles and sunshine.
Then maybe Boner and Omama would take that extended week vacation in the two man tent at the nude area of Camp David togeather.
Like O twitted yesterday, that Boner was his BFF.
Honest... it was on the news (not MSM, stupid)
And maybe Lloyd'd loan them his rainbow Skittles shitting unicorn for a petting animal. What a week! No golf, no fancy food, no limos, no sycophants agreeing to everything, just back to nature, heat, humidity, ticks, spiders, poison ivy, heat rash, crapping in a hole you dig yourself, warm water for that refreshing treat.
An idylic recpature of pure humility.
Why we all can't just get along?
Obama is thinking that letting the markets flounder will force the republicans ttto his side. But the republicans think that the market will force Obama to wilt. Two fools and their camps are throwing a keg of dynamite back and forth and they haven't realized that they are both to close to the keg and it will take them both out when it explodes.
Nice visual.
The MSM and the sheeple are so engrossed in the political battle that thy don't see the importance of the potential wake-up call that will come with even a minor derailment of pretend and extend.
We are in the late innings, my friends.
Dupe
The real fun will start when the official downgrades begin.
This debt limit debate is just kabuki.
Tyler meant to write 'cacophony' of course. But good use of the word none the less, meaningless static.
Gotta decouple. No way after all the SPX strength over the last week that Monday opens green. Profit taking and a decent reason to sell means red open, red finish, imo.
SPY dropped .50 during the afternoon on Friday ... nothing seems to have changed much since then except for Dingy Harry's 2.5T 10 year plan
i would think volume picks up a touch tomorrow vs friday.
Wow! That's a gap fill that even Michael Strahan is jealous of!
(Total Score:2)
I would guess this thing will cause a dollar spike after the knee-jerk reaction is over. Won't there be tons of margin calls if there are major moves in every market at once? Not everyone is hedged 1:1 and bot monkeys will quietly exit stage left once the tomatoes start flying. Might take a few days to gather momentum. Of course, everyone who has the ability to give an opinion on Debtapalooza says a deal is imminent before "whatever arbitrary event".
Anxiously awaiting JGB to buy USDs with freshly printed JPY and burning them live on a press conference. I think that's the only option they have left.
I'm guessing they needed to give the great "American" people something to keep them entertained since the NFL is still down and American Idol is over. Can't have bread and circus without the circus. Although, at this rate they won't have the bread, either.
Burning money is patriotic, by jingo!
hopefully susan li of bloomberg will have something silky on to set the mood @ 7pm ET.Turn up the ac at HK .
Liz Clayman.
"Ironically, in a world in which USD weakness is SPX strength, will correlation desks send the ES to infinity even as the key marginal driving force is the ever larger fear of US bankruptcy? Or will we finally get decoupling."
Tyler, based on the above sentence, are you expecting a decoupling at some point?
At some point yes, but with a strong correlation, it is a fools game to bet money that you picked the exact right time for the correlation to end. And in the zone bet, bets on continued correlation.
EDITED: Dollar move not newsworthy. I hate the new format, by the way. Peace out, bros.
Can you delete all yer other posts on the way out? You know, free up some space 'n' all.
OK.
gold. gold. gold. gold. gold.
everyone holding gold sleeps tight tonight.
gold. gold gold. gold. gold gold.....
everybody wang chung tonight.
Silver too, but I see platinum and palladium taking a dip with auto productions still trudging. Play the ratios...
Congratulation Tyler ... your ads are really going mainstream
zero hedge on shareposts?
Not to oversimplify things, but this is equity chart that matters the most right now.
http://pebblewriter.blogspot.com/2011/07/chart-that-really-matters.html
Won't this help with American exports overseas? /sarcasm off
Actually - I would find this extremely encouraging - if I believed for one minute that the Republican would not cave once Wall Street opens. I suspect we will see a deal by about 10:00 A.M. once the market opens and the MSM has a field day with the "Boehner Drop" and places ALL fault on the Responsible Party -- which is not to say the one responsible for the drop.
I am somehow confused, what do you mean by print, the spot exchange rate? Something else?
E.G. Gold Futures "printed" a high of 1607.7 on 7/22.
Thanks!
Guess who just emptied all US accounts and went physical on friday? Yep, that'd be me. Kinda cool holding 2kg of gold and not in the US at that.
Let me see now. If the Fed raises the interest rate on the money it loans to the banks to buy the treasuries does that mean the interest rate on the treasuries has to go up to "attract" the banks to purchase the said treasuries? Is that what a downgrade means?
usdjpy has bounced back to the Friday close, but I would take a look @ the COT chart for futures reads... Heavily long Yen!
I'm Canadian and my Dad gave me a tonne of US cash to hold for him. My parents had it for years now. I asked him why he didn't change it to CDN dollars and he says it's still worth a dollar in the US.
The Fed can trade at (225 billion/ 14.3 trillion) I can trade @ 50:1 on currencies and 1:1 PM's. Or I can trade ETF's . Or buy a CME seat. What happened to CFD's?
F... The FED and the breakdown has begun!!!!
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Consumer expectations are running wild, and speculators are jumping at every sign of pessimism. The current climate of fear plus the unpredictability of stock markets would make some people very rich, while bankrupting others. Will 2012 be a better year?
Simon - http://www.idpro.co.uk