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First Greek Exit Poll Shows Dead Heat Between Syriza And New Democracy

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The long-anticipated first Greek exit poll is out. The results, per Greek Mega TV, are as follows:

  • New Democracy 27.5-30.5,
  • SYRIZA 27-30,
  • PASOK 10-12,
  • Ind Gr 6-7.5,
  • Golden Dawn 6-7.5,
  • Dem Left 5.5-6.5,
  • KKE 5-6

As a reminder, per Citi, "The outcome will be too close to call if the difference between the first two parties is less than 2%-3% with strong precedent of exit polls failing to predict the outcome when the race is tight."

Also from Citi:

  • These results will NOT be an accurate representation of the final outcome. Numbers are fed through as they come in and this strongly biases the sample towards the rural regions in the early hours of counting.
  • The Ministry of Interior will be releasing more reliable estimates of the final result on Greek TV - this will not be available on the website.

The next exit poll round will come at 8 pm local time, or 1 pm Eastern.

Official data can be followed at: ekloges.ypes.gr

In a word: very much indefinite, as the leader will get the bonus of 50 parliamentary seats, which makes any conclusive calculus impossible for now.

And for a real-time tracker of results as they come in.

 

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Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:06 | 2533948 blabam
blabam's picture

Bullish.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:09 | 2533965 LuKOsro
LuKOsro's picture

long Eur/usd, short USD/JPY, long gold

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:15 | 2533987 mantrid
mantrid's picture

These results will NOT be an accurate representation of the final outcome.

 

algos do not care. skynet's focus is 15min long

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:19 | 2533998 Rainman
Rainman's picture

exit polls never count all the dead humans who voted....ignore.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:09 | 2534180 CharlieSDT
CharlieSDT's picture

Early returns will favor ND as the votes come in first from rural areas.  Syriza will gain strenth as the votes are counted.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:11 | 2534187 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

We should consult with the 'Oracle of the Honey Badger' to see what his take is on all of this...

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:19 | 2533999 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Wow. It's possible we could get a pro-Euro coalition. That would be...

BEARISH.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:32 | 2534050 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

A lot of investors are long on the expectation of unfettered central bank action. Look for a huge correction if the results come in pro Euro.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:40 | 2534085 mantrid
mantrid's picture

A lot of central banks are long to tweak market expectations

 

fixed it for ya :)

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:45 | 2534107 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Q: How do central banks determine the "right" policy response based on a "positive" outcome.

A: They can't.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:40 | 2534086 Colombian Gringo
Colombian Gringo's picture

It does not matter who votes, but who counts the votes. J. Stalin

 

I bet the pro establishment, pro austerity block wins on the basis of corruption.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:06 | 2533949 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

Hang em all. Burn it to the ground Greeks.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:26 | 2534027 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

We just want to tell you good luck.  We're all counting on you.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:38 | 2534076 koaj
koaj's picture

And don't call me Shirley

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:02 | 2534158 Bindar Dundat
Bindar Dundat's picture

The ZERO ZONE is getting ready to rock!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:02 | 2534162 AetosAeros
AetosAeros's picture

Air Traffic Controller: Captain, uh maybe we ought to turn on the search lights now?

 

Captian: No, that’s just what they’ll be expecting us to do.....

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:39 | 2534084 Coke and Hookers
Coke and Hookers's picture

Not often one hopes commies win an election.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:13 | 2533950 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

These numbers will change...

Reports of sudden rush to polling stations in the past hour:ages 25-40,probably Syriza voters

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:20 | 2534005 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

I agree the numbers should change based on the reports of last minute surge in voting.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:35 | 2534066 LaLiLuLeLo
LaLiLuLeLo's picture

If you watch the rally videos from both Syriza and ND, you can see a huge age discrepancy. Like I said 1 year ago, this is turning into a generational war to repudiate all the life sucking policies of our elders. 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:05 | 2534172 bigwavedave
bigwavedave's picture

Vote breakdown by age: 

18-34 SYRIZA 33%, ND 20% 
35-54 SYRIZA 34%, ND 24% 
55+ ND 39%, SYRIZA 20%

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:15 | 2534194 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Very helpful!  Thank you for posting it.

IF this is true, Syrza will win by a comfortable margin.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:23 | 2534213 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Old fuckers voting to stay retired.  They have most of the wealth too, what little is left.  That will happen here to with Social Security.  Everyone under age 50 is working so some old fart can play golf for 30 years and draw 3x as much out of Social Security than he put into it.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:48 | 2534268 CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

Yup.  Even the oldies who recognize the fraud and hate the government ponzi still want their Social Security checks.  Granted, they want back what they put in, though they should have put up more of a fight for the 40 years they were putting in.  I hope they are at least teaching their grandkids survival skills....  otherwise they're just completely useless.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:07 | 2534177 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

like we tell all our ignorant degenerate spawn:  that is why they play the game

now pay attention!  /s/

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:10 | 2534185 FlyoverCountryS...
FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture

Under 55s vote overwhelmingly for anti-bailout Syriza.

Over 55s for pro-bailout ND

 

Seems the folks who have to PAY for the Free Cheese don't like that idea. Imagine that.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:42 | 2534240 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

That's true "Democracy:"

Three wolves and two sheep voting on what's for lunch...

 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:06 | 2533952 YuropeanImbecille
YuropeanImbecille's picture

Long live freedom! Let's shun the chains of slavery

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:11 | 2533970 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

yep, its, would you rather be a hungry free man, or a fat slave. 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:15 | 2533986 YuropeanImbecille
YuropeanImbecille's picture

I would rather be a fat and happy free man :-)

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:23 | 2534013 mantrid
mantrid's picture

switzerland, bitchez!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:30 | 2534225 CPL
CPL's picture

Name a country that has been downgraded and are about to be downgraded again?

 

Other than the massive derivatives calls and put happening, is there any reason to care a lick about any of this?

 

 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:07 | 2533953 mantrid
mantrid's picture

where is massager in chief?!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:07 | 2533955 Rich Bagg
Rich Bagg's picture

What a joke.  The fix is in.  The markets will rally huge on Monday.  Mark my words.

 

 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:21 | 2534007 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

Rich Bagg

At this point I believe that elections (everywhere) are totally rigged. Here in America, we have one candidate who regularly attracts thousands of enthusiastic supporeters everywhere he goes. The other guy will draw maybe 100. Guy number one is refused air time and is placed in the "totally ignore" bin by the "media." Guy number two is labeled the "front runner."

Let's not fucking kid ourselves. The bad guys will get the vote they need.

 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:41 | 2534094 Colombian Gringo
Colombian Gringo's picture

Yep, you are 100% correct.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:08 | 2533956 geoffb
geoffb's picture

Never in a million years did I expect to ever care about a Greek election. That used to be one of the great things about being American, you didn't have too. We are all Greece now.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:12 | 2533972 Dead Canary
Dead Canary's picture

No, we are all Jews and it's 1939.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:13 | 2533978 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Long tailors.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:41 | 2534097 Arrowhead
Arrowhead's picture

I get your point Goeffrey but I choose not to be Greece today, Royals vs Cards on the radio, ribeyes on the fire and homebrew IPA. Come on over and cheer up!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:08 | 2534181 Lucky Guesst
Lucky Guesst's picture

Nice place!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:11 | 2534189 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

killjoy @ buzzkill, right?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:36 | 2534444 geoffb
geoffb's picture

Beautiful day here too. I'm hanging up the computer right now to go outside and enjoy my new father's day hammock and an ice cold beer!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:09 | 2533961 tu-ne-cede-malis
tu-ne-cede-malis's picture

In Diebold we trust.  Go Syriza!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:11 | 2533969 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

Doesn't Diebold make the ATMs over there too? Control the vote, but, if somehow it gets out of control, cut off the cash.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:14 | 2533981 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Need Amerika to oversee this. Yeah Ethical they say. Send some Black Panthers.

Democracy bitchezzz.

Find tall trees and short rope and start displaying . Pussification of Amerika first.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:09 | 2533963 bigwavedave
bigwavedave's picture

so the haves voted to keep having and the have-nots voted to keep not having. no surpises there then

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:10 | 2533967 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

if it stays even close to these poll numbers, no govt will be formed, and Greece will basically default on the 20th.  Thats what I take from these early exit polls.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:22 | 2534010 Jake88
Jake88's picture

As if they haven't defaulted already.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:26 | 2534029 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

that was agreed to nonsense. Whats comimg up is not, big difference.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:29 | 2534040 Rich Bagg
Rich Bagg's picture

No, New Democracy (which is actually Old Aristocracy) will win.  Greece will stay in the Euro.  Debt restructuring will continue.  Markets rally in a massive risk-on trade.

 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:13 | 2533979 ShortTheUS
ShortTheUS's picture

What about dem Nazis?

 

GOLDEN DAWN BITCHEZ!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:14 | 2533983 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

this is the world environment such groups thrive in.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:59 | 2534521 YellowBrickSWE
YellowBrickSWE's picture

Still not enough greeks are able to see that the only ones that truely care about Greece are the nationalists.

In this case it was Goldman sachs which made the greeks join the euro on completly false grounds in the first place, knowing that there was no way the Greeks could keep up with the northern europe.

With the help of the greek media working together with the same people who owns the banks they have setup their Communist party Syrzia. With communism in place they can take complete control over Greece and start silencing anyone who disagrees.

 

The Fed and the media in the US will try to put communism in place using same procedure as always do. Hopefully Ron Paul can stop the bullshit and say it like it is, the jewish elites wants more power (again).

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:24 | 2534021 FlyoverCountryS...
FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture

They seem to be getting MORE votes, this time, despite the Western Media that they would be ignored this time.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:00 | 2534317 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

this is an early exit poll, not a count of the votes which were cast inside or anywhere else

if i was greek and i has just cast a secret and anonymous ballot, that is what i would tell the fuking nannies, too!  slewie voted goldenShower! trust me!

and you just took one!  L0L!!!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:15 | 2533982 Christoph830
Christoph830's picture

Don't know about you guys but I am just dying to see the Greeks play Germany in the next round of the Euro 2012 tournament. There are going to be plenty of "there's more where that came from" tackles from the Greeks and I wouldn't be surprised to see a red card or two. Could be epic.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:18 | 2533997 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

But it's soccer.  That would be like watching a Greece vs Germany match to see which can get paint to dry the fastest.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:38 | 2534081 Christoph830
Christoph830's picture

Haha. I take it you're not a big fan of soccer.  I understand.  However, these Europeans treat soccer like a religion.  If all hell breaks loose on the field, it'll only serve to create more hatred/tension between the citizens of both countries.  The effect might be small but it certainly won't help mend the strained relationship between the two countries.  

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:41 | 2534096 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Yes, but I have to hide the fact because I am a dual citizen in the US and Ireland, which sees soccer on a par with the pope, both sentencing them to purgatory.  I personaly have no use for either the pope or round ball. 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:17 | 2534197 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

A soccer match I would actually WATCH!  I really hope we get it on American TV.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:14 | 2533985 JohnTheBaptist
JohnTheBaptist's picture

I'm disappointed in Greece.

Was hoping they would push the reset button today. Suggests approximately 30% want to be slaves to Merkel and EU.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:00 | 2534314 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Interesting because about 30% of the employment in Greece are public sector workers. 

http://www.happensingreece.com/which-country-has-the-highest-percentage-of-public-sector-workers-greece-or-germany/

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:16 | 2533988 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

It just hit me, this is never going to end

I am just as well off never watching the news and leading a life of sybaritic hedonism and generally being happy, head stuck in sand, refusing to get involved, because those that own us are never going to let us be free, they would rather see us dead than free. 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:19 | 2534001 Jake88
Jake88's picture

it will end with war

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:41 | 2534231 Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

"It just hit me, this is never going to end."

Oh, it's going to end alright.  What cannot continue indefinitely won't.  The world is wound up tight as a spring with EU banks far more leveraged than Lehman was, even larger than in 2008 banks worldwide still making idiotically risky bets with other people's money, $700 TRILLION dollars worth of unregulated, shadow banking derivatives with chained payoff (fantasy) "guarantees," a gigantic real estate bubble in China that's in the process of bursting, Chinese exports that will crash as the EU followed by the US crashes, Japan in a hopeless debt/GDP/demographic situation, the US fedgov borrowing and spending 10% of GDP every year for the past four years with no real recovery, simply preventing the GDP growth number from being -8% rather than +2%, etc., etc., etc.  This is the perfect storm unlike anything ever seen in history.

"I am just as well off never watching the news and leading a life of sybaritic hedonism and generally being happy, head stuck in sand, refusing to get involved, because those that own us are never going to let us be free, they would rather see us dead than free."

True, ignorance of things one can do nothing about individually IS bliss.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:35 | 2534236 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

Currently you (we) are worth more alive than dead, because unlike in the past, when only your labor (economic output over lifetime) counted - and was very effectively capped and checked, today you can be levered up with credit/debt valued at many multiples of your net worth, yearly income, etc. as yet there is no way to sell debt to the dead. Genocide or major war means the debt-serfdom system has completely broken down and you (we) have reverted to near-worthlessness as "citizens".

The debt-serfdom/fiat creditmoney combo is simply too lucrative, nothing else rivals it in history.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:14 | 2534369 Currency is Debt
Currency is Debt's picture

Correct - you must understand that when the debt burden grows much to large for the ctizens to service - this is around the time we are 'worthless'. This is war time. 

Destroy everything for rebuilding. Kill lots of indebted motherfuckers that have by now figured out the game (and will not be ideal for the next system fuck)

Restart the lending curve to a new batch of people whilst steadily impoverish them and suck in all the wealth of millions for a small group of squids.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:16 | 2533990 falak pema
falak pema's picture

dead heat; means greece stays on back burner. No bonfire in Athens.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:18 | 2533994 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

doesnt mean that at all.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:21 | 2534011 falak pema
falak pema's picture

the far left won't rule and the new demo will drool and play cool to Merkel rule.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:24 | 2534018 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

how? no govt can be formed with these type numbers, that leads to default on the 20th, and a euro crisis.  We just had a election like this a few weeks ago, its why they are doing it again, only this time we have the 20th loomimg large.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:32 | 2534051 falak pema
falak pema's picture

looks like the new demo can work a majority with that; thats my point. Pasok and all thrown in, with a few bribes and apart Sryi and golden porn, they'll all cave in. 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:34 | 2534060 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

umm, if that were the case we wouldnt be having this election.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:29 | 2534284 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

your answer is popular

but does that make it true?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:32 | 2534228 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Have you not seen the reports of Grenade attacks on certian polling stations, GD bullies at others, fires and riots in the streets.

This is going to end with a Syrza win or a North African style deposition of ND/PASOK.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:09 | 2534348 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

This is the only thing I have seen on the newswires about attacks. Got more info?

"Police say about 10 men armed with sledgehammers and wooden bats have attacked a polling station during Greece's election, wounding two policemen guarding it and setting fire to the ballot box. No voters were hurt during the attack Sunday, which occurred half an hour before polls closed.

The attack the only one reported so far at a voting station during the balloting took place in the Athens neighborhood of Exarhia, a traditional haven for leftists and anarchists near the city center."

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international-business/greece-elections-polling-station-in-athens-attacked/articleshow/14216119.cms


Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:17 | 2533993 Byte Me
Byte Me's picture

They shoulda got the BLS to do the 'rithmetic -- everything would be just hunky then.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:18 | 2533996 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Real-time trackers are cool...

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:25 | 2534026 mantrid
mantrid's picture

they should come with free MT5 plugins so FX markets are more "efficient"

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:24 | 2534020 Martin Silenus
Martin Silenus's picture

There will be blood.  And it'll be blue.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:25 | 2534023 monkeyboy
monkeyboy's picture

Meh nothing's gonna happen. Just a grind into oblivion. More of the same me reckons.

(or is it a trap/distraction???) Quick look @ Greece...what about Spain, Italy, France...

When do the Olympics start?

 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:29 | 2534037 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

What about Egypt? Sorry for jumping the gun.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:38 | 2534080 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Egypt had a coup last week, a court ruled that even after the election the military can remain the only source of laws or law enforcement rendering a Muslim Brotherhood government a completely neutered formality.  In effect the military will remain the government. 

Egypt's highest court declared the parliament invalid Thursday, and the country's interim military rulers promptly declared full legislative authority, triggering fresh chaos and confusion about the country's leadership.

The Supreme Constitutional Court found that all articles making up the law that regulated parliamentary elections are invalid, said Showee Elsayed, a constitutional lawyer.

The ruling means that parliament must be dissolved, state TV reported.

Parliament has been in session for just over four months. It is dominated by Islamists, a group long viewed with suspicion by the military.

http://articles.cnn.com/2012-06-14/middleeast/world_meast_egypt-ruling_1_muslim-brotherhood-prime-minister-ahmed-shafik-shafiq?_s=PM:MIDDLEEAST

 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:25 | 2534024 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/greek-election-blog-2012/2012/jun/17/greek-elections-greece-polls-live?commentpage=all#start-of-comments#block-27

 

Their are multiple polls - some with Syrza in lead.  Talk of a huge surge in 25-40 voting in the last hours - presummably for Syza.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:26 | 2534030 taraxias
taraxias's picture

SYRIZA must be up by 5 points if this is what the hugely anti-syriza MEGA is reporting

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:27 | 2534033 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

The whole thing will end up being a non-event.

Barely a ripple on the long term chart of the S & P 500.

Meanwhile, the hysteria in the news media covering this event is reaching fever pitch.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:30 | 2534041 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

the largest economy in the world is having a currency crisis and you simply dont seem to understand that. Thats ok, go back to your xbox 360 and play.

( eurozone=largest world economy)

 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:56 | 2534141 CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

Europe is a single economy in the same way Frankenstein's monster was a real person.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:33 | 2534055 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Rodney King is found dead in the pool. Cue up another media circus distraction cuz the LA cops obviously did it.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/17/us-usa-king-idUSBRE85G0CZ20120617

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:38 | 2534079 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Now we can all just get along.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:49 | 2534117 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Oh, how tragic.

And he had so much going for him.

Intelligence, eloquence, pure motives and a good heart..

A media darling.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:54 | 2534134 algol_dog
algol_dog's picture

He had a fiancee. That's something going for him ...

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:01 | 2534157 Pinworm
Pinworm's picture

Bathsaltz

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 16:35 | 2534164 Manthong
Manthong's picture

How intriguing that such a noble and free spirit would by chance be thrust into the national consciousness by a vigilant media that was tuned to the pressing issues of social injustice and the plight of “motorists”, high on drugs, who drive around at 100 miles per hour.

It’s surprising that they have yet to take up the plight of oppressed cannibals.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 16:35 | 2534734 Jake88
Jake88's picture

 dude are you trying to incite another riot...maybe get another 57 people killed.  he drowned in a pool. that is all that is obvious. that and that you are not rational. 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:43 | 2534078 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

For once you are right.  US markets (if you can call them that) are under total control of the Fed. Greece will not matter except for a couple of hours, if that.

The Fed will not allow the US stock market to fall now that 40% of median US wealth has been wiped out by the decline in housing prices. The Greenspan put is now the Bernanke put except it is 10 times larger.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/fed-americans-wealth-dropped-40-percent/2012/06/11/gJQAlIsCVV_story.html

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:09 | 2534347 Clashfan
Clashfan's picture

The chick in your avatar has fake tits. Down x 10K.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:27 | 2534034 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

Isn't this the worst outcome of the lot? No decision. Another election.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:44 | 2534103 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

If Syriza can get the extra 50 seats by taking the lead, it is conceivable that they could cobble together a coalition by "taking a patriotic stance for Greece" and allowing participation by some parties they would never accept otherwise.  Perhaps give Golden Dawn the rural road traffic control ministry or something to get their 6%.

Those 50 seats are the key, of course.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:27 | 2534035 Colonial Intent
Colonial Intent's picture

Hardly gives the winner a popular mandate for change.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:32 | 2534047 Rich Bagg
Rich Bagg's picture

Status Quo is a huge win for the Technocrats.  Continued debt restructuring, stay in the Euro, markets rally big time.

 

 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:29 | 2534038 ChelseaAggro
ChelseaAggro's picture

Military coup by Wednesday.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:32 | 2534052 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

what kind of military does Greece have? what type of structure and power does the miltary possess? Its times like these that exactly what you propose does come about unfortunately.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:50 | 2534126 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Greek military is structured to fit into NATO and is one of the largest budgeted forces on the planet on a per capita basis.  But they have had more coups than Romney has positions on political issues.  I believe that if this election does not resolve the euro question  this week there is a high probability of a coup.  Though in a Greece that is part of the EU as opposed to when it was still independent this could mean a response to the military by both NATO and the EU, and that would give the EU/Germany, US, IMF, etc. the ability to simply appoint a government to administer Greece until it is deemed able to govern itself again, meaning shut up and do what Germany wants. 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:46 | 2534476 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Hmm some supporing info:

http://www.nato.int/nato_static/assets/pdf/pdf_2012_04/20120413_PR_CP_2012_047_rev1.pdf

 

I think what you're looking for is: "Table 3: Defence expenditures as a percentage of gross domestic product"

2011 data shows military expenditures as 2.1% of GDP, definitely on lower end over since 1990, but it is second to UK's 2.6%... and well as expected everybody is beat by the US 4.8%.

 

Table 5a breaks it down better, showing personnel, equipment, infrastructure, etc expenditures.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 15:06 | 2534557 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

This is where I got my data...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures  which is based on the SIPRI military expenditure database

If you go to the list of all nations and sort in decending order on the column for per capita spending you see that only the UAE, US, Israel, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Norway spend more per capita than Greece.  Singapore, Kuwait, and the UAE are only on that list because of their very small populations, and strategic locations that require rather expensive defenses, divided by such a small population.  Greek paranoia, whether founded or not, of Turkish military spending is a driving factor, that and the several military juntas that have run Greece over time have made sure that military spending in Greece became a structural expense.  But I am old enough to remember when the war over Cyprus competed for top story on the evening news with Vietnam.  For a while there it was like Beirut, 1974 the Turks invaded and divided the island if I remember right. 

As a member of both NATO and the EU you would think that they could cut way back on military spending and enjoy the umbrella of European and American protectorate. 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 15:02 | 2534535 Colonial Intent
Colonial Intent's picture

Repost:

News from 2 Nov 2011

In a surprise move, on Tuesday evening the defence minister replaced the country’s top brass. An extraordinary meeting of the Government Council of Foreign Affairs and Defence (Kysea), which comprises the prime minister and other key cabinet members, accepted Defence Minister Panos Beglitis' proposal that the following changes be made to army, navy and air force and the general staff:

  • General Ioannis Giagkos, chief of the Greek National Defence General Staff, to be replaced by Lieutenant General Michalis Kostarakos
  • Lieutenant General Fragkos Fragkoulis, chief of the Greek Army General Staff, to be replaced by lieutenant general Konstantinos Zazias
  • Lieutenant General Vasilios Klokozas, chief of the Greek Air Force, to be replaced by air marshal Antonis Tsantirakis
  • Vice-Admiral Dimitrios Elefsiniotis, chief of the Greek Navy General Staff, to be replaced by Rear-Admiral Kosmas Christidis

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/02/us-greece-govt-military-idUSTR...

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/default.aspx?pageid=438&n=report-milita...

If you think TPTB will not use any and all means at their disposal to perpetuate the current system then you are dreaming.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:33 | 2534058 mantrid
mantrid's picture

you mean Egypt or Greece? 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:34 | 2534232 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Not mutually exclusive.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:35 | 2534235 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

What millitary?  The engine of the staus quo has been gutted by austerity.  The Greek people meanwhile are pretty damn fiesty.  They might need a G&A drop, but they would kick the crap out of their own police and army.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:30 | 2534042 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Manipulation.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:31 | 2534043 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Remember the last election:  Not a single party won a majority of seats in the 300-member parliament. Pasok secured only 41 seats with a mere 13.18 percent of the vote. New Democracy got 18.85 percent of the vote and 108 seats.

Because new demo had the most votes they got the 50 seat bonus last time, but they are polling well ahead of their 18.8% of last election, if they can eek out a few more votes than Syriza with 30% of the votes they will have a lot more seats than before and will be able to form a pro euro pro austerity government that will keep Greece under Merkel's thumb for years.  At least till the nation burns to the ground in civil wars. 

It looks like it will come down to metro Athens and we will not really know that outcome till tomorrow.  I just cannot imagine what kind of person would vote for the party of enslavement to the euro, people who still have jobs and get paid who are terrified of that ending when the New Drachma circulates I guess, but it is going to happen anyway no matter the outcome of this election.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:35 | 2534065 barkingbill
barkingbill's picture

i bet these numbers will change with metro athens as you call it. athens is most likely more left and will vote syriza

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:37 | 2534073 mantrid
mantrid's picture

if "this is going to happen anyway" then what "Merkel's thumb for years" are we talking about? the whole voting is about exiting soon vs later. Germans won't keep throuwing monies into "bottomless pit" for many years. it's all about buying time to do more can kicking.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:42 | 2534102 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

I just cannot imagine what kind of person would vote for the party of enslavement to the euro

I would imagine that most Greeks would also not want half of their net worth cut in half overnight due to Drachmatization. The Greeks have found themselves in quite the quagmire.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:15 | 2534195 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

That is what I meant, those that still have any wealth or a paycheck are so scared of losing it that they would vote to keep their current masters in Frankfurt and Brussels, but MOST Greeks now are in a position where they have little to nothing left to lose, the only way it can get worse for them is to keep the status quo.  It is a quagmire with only one way out, and that way will sting for a while should they work up the courage to split from the eurozone. 

You know though, we have heard SO much about Greek pride, I am not seeing it, if it was half what they say it is the last election would have been a blow out for independence and we would not be seeing this second election.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:33 | 2534059 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

yup nuttin to see here- BUY EM

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:35 | 2534068 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Repost:

 

It has all come down to whether the EU core can support the periphery states. The elections don’t really matter. Extending the soap opera series for another year is what really matters to the quasi monopolizing families. Once you understand the list of families and their businesses, this is the last subsidy they will receive before too big to save takes effect. As sales revenues spiral in the red, so does the government financed monopoly. True capitalism will be reborn.

10 Oct 2011 Bloomberg Mark Hale is CIO of Prytania Investment Advisors. He is also former financial analyst and economist at the Bank of England. Background: Osborne says Eurozone package must be ready no later than Cannes Summit. He won't allow the deficit-cutting program to falter.

http://wn.com/core-periphery?orderby=relevance&upload_time=all_time

Axial Division of Labour

Happy Father’s Day to all!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:46 | 2534108 VonSalza
VonSalza's picture

Greek election livestream http://www.livestream.com/stopcarteltvgr

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:22 | 2534210 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Whats with the 5 minute long pro-Commie anti-Romney ad at the beggining?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:41 | 2534251 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Your brower history my friend. Clean your cache

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:51 | 2534109 SDRII
SDRII's picture

The march to war in Syria rolls on..

  • Senator McCain: Lack of U.S. aid to Syria rebels is 'shameful' (AP). UN suspends Syria ops, SNC warns of massacre  (AFP)

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jb4gvTlkLBHcMLS4mcIDn...

  • Syrian rebels have held meetings with senior US government officials in Washington as pressure mounts on the US to authorise a shipment of heavy weapons, including surface-to-air missiles to combat the Assad regime, the Daily Telegraph has learne

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/9334707/US-ho...

Remeber this...

  • British Foreign Secretary William Hague said Syria was moving towards 'all-out civil war or a state of collapse'. He added that military intervention in the country would have to be on a much larger scale than the operations in Libya, and revealed the Government had not ruled out any options, which might also include supplying rebels in Syria with arms.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2153138/Syria-massacre-Factory-workers-ordered-bus-executed.html#ixzz1y4OMwOZl

 

Meanwhile, the bank-rolling of GCC contries continues:

  • Arab Monetary Fund in $65 million loan to Egypt
  • Jordan in talks with IMF for $1.4 billion loan: finance minister
http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/06/17/221098.html

http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/06/17/221125.html

 

And more money for the IMF

  • World leaders meeting in Mexico will agree to boost the $430 billion (Dh1.58 trillion) firewall the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced in April, host President Felipe Calderon said.“I estimate that there will be a larger capitalisation than the pre-accord reached in Washington, which will be finalised here, but I don’t want to speculate by how much,” Calderon told reporters yesterday in the coastal resort of Los Cabos.

http://gulfnews.com/business/economy/g20-to-back-imf-s-430b-firewall-1.1...

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international-business/imf-face...

 

 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:35 | 2534233 TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

It makes me feel fucking sick.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:47 | 2534114 algol_dog
algol_dog's picture

Isn't the worst outcome of this mess a tie?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:25 | 2534215 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

no

that is simply the only outcome, for practical puposes

they (greek pols) will do something about it later, possibly by the 20th, depending on other decisions and by the banksters, EU ECB, angela, the IMF FED SNB and circumstance elsewhere such as libya, egypt, iran, syria, NY, CA. chindia,  and the solar surface

or they may remain sans goobermint as per gPap's exit last year for the squididity

last week we had ITA borrowing @6% to lend to spain @3%

in breaking news:  someone has kidnapped the fat lady! 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:58 | 2534147 q99x2
q99x2's picture

At least their election process seems a lot more democratic than in the US. Problem is that the banks are deciding what to do with Greece.

If Egyptians voted in the US and the Americans voted in Egypt the elections would result in the same as if we voted instead within our own perspective countries. That is how bad the US has fallen under the control of the banksters.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:02 | 2534160 Gamma735
Gamma735's picture

The shadow banker backed government is the true seat of power in the New World Order.  Elections be damned.   Accept your yoke of financial slavery and be a good citizen of the New World Order.  

 

 

 

 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:11 | 2534188 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Too many people focused on if Syrzaw beats ND...  Put it in perspective...

Whether or not Syriza turns out to be the biggest party the exit polls tell us that it is a stunning result for its leader Alexis Tsiparis.

The party won just 4.6% of the vote in 2009, when Pasok got 43.9% and New Democracy 33.5%.

In May, Syriza got just under 17% and now exit polls are suggesting it is on course for between 27.5% and 30.5%. Tsipras, just 38, was was barely known beyond the borders of his homeland six weeks ago. As upturns in political fortunes go, there can be few to match it.

 

Its going to be a lot tougher to get a coalition government then in May even if ND wins.  And the negotiations with the Trokia will be a lot tougher then in 2010/2011 no matter who wins.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:13 | 2534191 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

RT @YanniKouts: Shocking: Golden Dawn has finished 3rd among young voters

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:17 | 2534196 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

The anti-bailout parties should have done a coalition...

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:18 | 2534198 Husk-Erzulie
Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:21 | 2534206 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Holy hell!  That is one heck of a storm.  Even if it doesn't hit Fuki - if that thing STRENGTHENS - WOW.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:19 | 2534201 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

 

 

Might I suggest to one of you coat hangers that appear on CNBS, Bloomberg or any other cheerleading channel. You must begin using the very suppressed dialogue in describing the truth about the manufactured crisis.  If the EU goes, so does the architects/investment firms who gambled on removing the sovereignty of the United States.  Theses fractional reserve investors are the one who will lose. They see that the poor house is in the cards by betting against the USA. In a very short time, these people will be exposed. Many reside in the US administration.

 

Start using the correct dialogue..

Semi-Periphery States

 

When you borrow money to support your lavish needs, certain strings are attached in forming cultural changes just prior to handing off the super power status baton. You will witness how high the treason exists shortly. But this was the plan long ago. This group was told a lie.. Immunity doesn’t really exist for these moles. Grab your popcorn and enjoy the show.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:24 | 2534214 Red Heeler
Red Heeler's picture
  • New Democracy 27.5-30.5
  • SYRIZA 27-30
  •  

    Coming soon to a country near you:

    Obama 27.5-30.5

    Romney 27-30

    Who falls for this nonsense?

    Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:30 | 2534223 lolmao500
    lolmao500's picture

    Well at least in Greece they have somewhat of a ``real`` party (Syriza)... all the US has is two heads from the same monster.

    Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:47 | 2534265 Red Heeler
    Red Heeler's picture

    Isn't it Syriza who is anti-austerity?

    If so, they should be winning in a landslide.

    To paraphrase Kissinger: "The issues are much too important for the Greek voters to be left to decide for themselves."

    Bullish Molotov Cocktails

    Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:27 | 2534220 ripper
    ripper's picture

    News dont matter as it has already been priced in

    http://capital3x.com/think-tank/slimy-markets/

    Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:38 | 2534241 RoadKill
    RoadKill's picture

    SKAI TV says Syrza 28% ND 27.5% PASOK 13%.

    Seems like later vote counting is benefitting Syrza as expected due to Rural vs Urban and surge in late voting by youth.

    Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:39 | 2534242 Meltdownman
    Meltdownman's picture

    Voting in Greece;

     

    It became necessary to destroy Greece in order to save it.

     

    The Meltdownman

    Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:40 | 2534247 RoadKill
    RoadKill's picture

    Tsipras wife just gave birth to 2nd son.  One hell of a good day.  Win an election, become favorite for PM, and have another kid.  Congrats Tsipras - even though I hate Commies.

    Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:47 | 2534270 RoadKill
    RoadKill's picture

    Hmm..  That seems to disagree with what Im seeing on Guardian.co.uk.  They show Syriza up by 0.5% and ND supporters aghast at the results.

    Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:41 | 2534250 BurgundianRon
    BurgundianRon's picture

    IMHO there won't be a status quo. Regardless of the winner the greeks are out of the Euro. Germany doesn't want to even consider Eurobonds with the Greeks in the mix. Once they're out eurobonds will be the attempt at saving SPIFI (throw France in the mix too!) from the same fate - perhaps a pro-rata gold swap for proportionate risk. Cure debt with debt - but workout the weak(est) link first.

    Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:41 | 2534252 Cage Rattler
    Cage Rattler's picture

    Apparently Athinon B is the district that has picked the winner in every Greek election for 40 years....

    Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:43 | 2534255 RoadKill
    RoadKill's picture

    Greece isnt the weakest link, Spain is.  Youth unemployment is a far bigger deal then Debt/GDP.  Its young idle/angry males that start fires/revolutions.

    Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:44 | 2534258 Dorelei
    Dorelei's picture

    New D ahead with 127 seats vs 72 for Syriza ...

    NewD can strike an  alliance with Pasok to form a majority ...

    Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:48 | 2534276 Winston Smith 2009
    Winston Smith 2009's picture

    For the first time in my life, I'm rooting like crazy for the far lefties.  Why?  Because even though they'll do it for all the wrong reasons, they're the ones most likely to tell the banksters to go f*ck themselves which is the right thing to do.

    Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:05 | 2534339 Grand Supercycle
    Grand Supercycle's picture

    Rally warning continues...

    SPX bullish daily chart strengthened further on Friday & more rally expected.

    DOW initial target approx 13,170 & more upside after that.

    MORE:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-24/market-analysis

    Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:14 | 2534372 Currency is Debt
    Currency is Debt's picture

    Correct - you must understand that when the debt burden grows much to large for the ctizens to service - this is around the time we are 'worthless'. This is war time. 

    Destroy everything for rebuilding. Kill lots of indebted motherfuckers that have by now figured out the game (and will not be ideal for the next system fuck)

    Restart the lending curve to a new batch of people whilst steadily impoverish them and suck in all the wealth of millions for a small group of squids.

    Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!