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First Greek Exit Poll Shows Dead Heat Between Syriza And New Democracy

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The long-anticipated first Greek exit poll is out. The results, per Greek Mega TV, are as follows:

  • New Democracy 27.5-30.5,
  • SYRIZA 27-30,
  • PASOK 10-12,
  • Ind Gr 6-7.5,
  • Golden Dawn 6-7.5,
  • Dem Left 5.5-6.5,
  • KKE 5-6

As a reminder, per Citi, "The outcome will be too close to call if the difference between the first two parties is less than 2%-3% with strong precedent of exit polls failing to predict the outcome when the race is tight."

Also from Citi:

  • These results will NOT be an accurate representation of the final outcome. Numbers are fed through as they come in and this strongly biases the sample towards the rural regions in the early hours of counting.
  • The Ministry of Interior will be releasing more reliable estimates of the final result on Greek TV - this will not be available on the website.

The next exit poll round will come at 8 pm local time, or 1 pm Eastern.

Official data can be followed at: ekloges.ypes.gr

In a word: very much indefinite, as the leader will get the bonus of 50 parliamentary seats, which makes any conclusive calculus impossible for now.

And for a real-time tracker of results as they come in.

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Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:06 | 2533948 blabam
blabam's picture

Bullish.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:09 | 2533965 LuKOsro
LuKOsro's picture

long Eur/usd, short USD/JPY, long gold

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:15 | 2533987 mantrid
mantrid's picture

These results will NOT be an accurate representation of the final outcome.

 

algos do not care. skynet's focus is 15min long

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:19 | 2533998 Rainman
Rainman's picture

exit polls never count all the dead humans who voted....ignore.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:09 | 2534180 CharlieSDT
CharlieSDT's picture

Early returns will favor ND as the votes come in first from rural areas.  Syriza will gain strenth as the votes are counted.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:11 | 2534187 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

We should consult with the 'Oracle of the Honey Badger' to see what his take is on all of this...

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:19 | 2533999 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Wow. It's possible we could get a pro-Euro coalition. That would be...

BEARISH.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:32 | 2534050 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

A lot of investors are long on the expectation of unfettered central bank action. Look for a huge correction if the results come in pro Euro.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:40 | 2534085 mantrid
mantrid's picture

A lot of central banks are long to tweak market expectations

 

fixed it for ya :)

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:45 | 2534107 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Q: How do central banks determine the "right" policy response based on a "positive" outcome.

A: They can't.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:40 | 2534086 Colombian Gringo
Colombian Gringo's picture

It does not matter who votes, but who counts the votes. J. Stalin

 

I bet the pro establishment, pro austerity block wins on the basis of corruption.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:06 | 2533949 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

Hang em all. Burn it to the ground Greeks.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:26 | 2534027 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

We just want to tell you good luck.  We're all counting on you.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:38 | 2534076 koaj
koaj's picture

And don't call me Shirley

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:02 | 2534158 Bindar Dundat
Bindar Dundat's picture

The ZERO ZONE is getting ready to rock!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:02 | 2534162 AetosAeros
AetosAeros's picture

Air Traffic Controller: Captain, uh maybe we ought to turn on the search lights now?

 

Captian: No, that’s just what they’ll be expecting us to do.....

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:39 | 2534084 Coke and Hookers
Coke and Hookers's picture

Not often one hopes commies win an election.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:13 | 2533950 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

These numbers will change...

Reports of sudden rush to polling stations in the past hour:ages 25-40,probably Syriza voters

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:20 | 2534005 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

I agree the numbers should change based on the reports of last minute surge in voting.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:35 | 2534066 LaLiLuLeLo
LaLiLuLeLo's picture

If you watch the rally videos from both Syriza and ND, you can see a huge age discrepancy. Like I said 1 year ago, this is turning into a generational war to repudiate all the life sucking policies of our elders. 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:05 | 2534172 bigwavedave
bigwavedave's picture

Vote breakdown by age: 

18-34 SYRIZA 33%, ND 20% 
35-54 SYRIZA 34%, ND 24% 
55+ ND 39%, SYRIZA 20%

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:15 | 2534194 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Very helpful!  Thank you for posting it.

IF this is true, Syrza will win by a comfortable margin.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:23 | 2534213 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Old fuckers voting to stay retired.  They have most of the wealth too, what little is left.  That will happen here to with Social Security.  Everyone under age 50 is working so some old fart can play golf for 30 years and draw 3x as much out of Social Security than he put into it.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:48 | 2534268 CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

Yup.  Even the oldies who recognize the fraud and hate the government ponzi still want their Social Security checks.  Granted, they want back what they put in, though they should have put up more of a fight for the 40 years they were putting in.  I hope they are at least teaching their grandkids survival skills....  otherwise they're just completely useless.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:07 | 2534177 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

like we tell all our ignorant degenerate spawn:  that is why they play the game

now pay attention!  /s/

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:10 | 2534185 FlyoverCountryS...
FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture

Under 55s vote overwhelmingly for anti-bailout Syriza.

Over 55s for pro-bailout ND

 

Seems the folks who have to PAY for the Free Cheese don't like that idea. Imagine that.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:42 | 2534240 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

That's true "Democracy:"

Three wolves and two sheep voting on what's for lunch...

 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:06 | 2533952 YuropeanImbecille
YuropeanImbecille's picture

Long live freedom! Let's shun the chains of slavery

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:11 | 2533970 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

yep, its, would you rather be a hungry free man, or a fat slave. 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:15 | 2533986 YuropeanImbecille
YuropeanImbecille's picture

I would rather be a fat and happy free man :-)

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:23 | 2534013 mantrid
mantrid's picture

switzerland, bitchez!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:30 | 2534225 CPL
CPL's picture

Name a country that has been downgraded and are about to be downgraded again?

 

Other than the massive derivatives calls and put happening, is there any reason to care a lick about any of this?

 

 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:07 | 2533953 mantrid
mantrid's picture

where is massager in chief?!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:07 | 2533955 Rich Bagg
Rich Bagg's picture

What a joke.  The fix is in.  The markets will rally huge on Monday.  Mark my words.

 

 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:21 | 2534007 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

Rich Bagg

At this point I believe that elections (everywhere) are totally rigged. Here in America, we have one candidate who regularly attracts thousands of enthusiastic supporeters everywhere he goes. The other guy will draw maybe 100. Guy number one is refused air time and is placed in the "totally ignore" bin by the "media." Guy number two is labeled the "front runner."

Let's not fucking kid ourselves. The bad guys will get the vote they need.

 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:41 | 2534094 Colombian Gringo
Colombian Gringo's picture

Yep, you are 100% correct.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:08 | 2533956 geoffb
geoffb's picture

Never in a million years did I expect to ever care about a Greek election. That used to be one of the great things about being American, you didn't have too. We are all Greece now.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:12 | 2533972 Dead Canary
Dead Canary's picture

No, we are all Jews and it's 1939.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:13 | 2533978 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Long tailors.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:41 | 2534097 Arrowhead
Arrowhead's picture

I get your point Goeffrey but I choose not to be Greece today, Royals vs Cards on the radio, ribeyes on the fire and homebrew IPA. Come on over and cheer up!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:08 | 2534181 Lucky Guesst
Lucky Guesst's picture

Nice place!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 13:11 | 2534189 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

killjoy @ buzzkill, right?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:36 | 2534444 geoffb
geoffb's picture

Beautiful day here too. I'm hanging up the computer right now to go outside and enjoy my new father's day hammock and an ice cold beer!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:09 | 2533961 tu-ne-cede-malis
tu-ne-cede-malis's picture

In Diebold we trust.  Go Syriza!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:11 | 2533969 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

Doesn't Diebold make the ATMs over there too? Control the vote, but, if somehow it gets out of control, cut off the cash.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:14 | 2533981 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Need Amerika to oversee this. Yeah Ethical they say. Send some Black Panthers.

Democracy bitchezzz.

Find tall trees and short rope and start displaying . Pussification of Amerika first.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:09 | 2533963 bigwavedave
bigwavedave's picture

so the haves voted to keep having and the have-nots voted to keep not having. no surpises there then

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:10 | 2533967 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

if it stays even close to these poll numbers, no govt will be formed, and Greece will basically default on the 20th.  Thats what I take from these early exit polls.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:22 | 2534010 Jake88
Jake88's picture

As if they haven't defaulted already.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 12:26 | 2534029 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

that was agreed to nonsense. Whats comimg up is not, big difference.

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