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Fitch Says Greece Will Default By March 20 Bond Payment

Tyler Durden's picture


It's all over but the crying at least as far as Greece is concerned. First, it was S&P's Kraemer telling Bloomberg yesterday the country is finished, now today for dramatic impact, we get Fitch's repeating the doom and gloom, stating that the country will likely default before its March 20 payment. From Bloomberg: "Greece is insolvent and will default on its debts, Fitch Ratings Managing Director Edward Parker said. The euro area’s most indebted country is unlikely to be able to honor a March 20 bond payment of 14.5 billion euros ($18 billion), Parker said in an interview in Stockholm today. Efforts to arrange a private sector deal on how to handle Greece’s obligations would constitute a default at Fitch, he said.  “The so called private sector involvement, for us, would count as a default, it clearly is a default in our book,” Parker said. “So it won’t be a surprise when the Greek default actually happens and we expect it one way or the other to be relatively soon." Europe’s debt crisis is likely to be “long and drawn out,” Parker said." And here we go again, with official attempts to make what appeared apocalyptic as recently as a month ago, seem trite, boring and perfectly anticipated. In other words, the fact that this like every other piece of bad news that should be priced in, is priced in, is priced in. And so on, at least according to the kleptocrats, until we finally learn that nothing is priced in but endless market stupidity.


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Tue, 01/17/2012 - 08:49 | 2070516 trampstamp
trampstamp's picture

sweet! Long gondola's

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 08:59 | 2070547 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Many of my top tier banking stocks have issued large quantities of sovereign CDS and the ISDA has my back no matter what the doomers or rogue rating agencies say about sovereign defaults. I do feel sorry for the doomers on days like these. They like to believe that the world is out of control and that they're on the winning side of the trade. However, the truth is that I and other equity investors have congress, the Federal Reserve, the ECB and the ISDA on our side and backing us up. This is the invisible hedge that emboldens us to take large positions in retail and financial stocks.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:01 | 2070552 Irish66
Irish66's picture

Good luck with Citi

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:02 | 2070559 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Absolutely. Great assessment.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:04 | 2070561 Sam Clemons
Sam Clemons's picture


Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:04 | 2070565 Better_late_tha...
Better_late_than_never's picture

You are living in a dream world.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:13 | 2070590 Yamaha
Yamaha's picture

Dream world yes - Ponzi world? Everywhere - complete fraud......

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:14 | 2070592 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

No, the doomer day traders are living in a dream world. In their world, respected government officials are somehow making 'devious' and 'corrupt' deals behind closed doors, top Ivy League economics professors and Nobel Laureates don't understand the global economy, and United States dollars are just "pieces of paper". Lol keep dreaming, because everything is under control and when the dream ends I will be the winner.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:16 | 2070604 falak pema
falak pema's picture

"looking with amazement" would drink to that...such a boring world...

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 10:46 | 2070905 Badabing
Badabing's picture


This is mom! Its time to come up out of the basement and eat your breakfast!


Tue, 01/17/2012 - 11:43 | 2071094 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture




Hmmm ...

MDB, do you have an address where I can ship your remains?

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:33 | 2070653 jcaz
jcaz's picture

So....  Your Mom is gonna let you buy another share of Netflix then?

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:53 | 2070720 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

doomer day traders


Contradiction in terms.  Bona fide "doomers," or "realists" if you prefer, aren't day traders.  Day traders set up umbrella stands; realists build arks and store stuff in 'em.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 13:26 | 2071484 ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

Let's do a play by play on MDB

'No, the doomer day traders [DDT] are living in a dream world."

MDB 1 - 0 DDT

"In their world, respected government officials are somehow making 'devious' and 'corrupt' deals behind closed doors, top Ivy League economics professors and Nobel Laureates don't understand the global economy, and United States dollars are just "pieces of paper"

MDB 1 - 1 DDT

"Lol keep dreaming, because everything is under control and when the dream ends I will be the winner."

Until everything isn't under control anymore

DDT win the shootout. 

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:05 | 2070568 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

The Sky Is Falling.... no I really mean it this time... The Sky Is Falling! There is a wolf coming! The end is nigh!

Doom fatigue has sunk in as we all begin to realize... the sun will come up Wednesday, January 18, 2012, and most likely... the big banks have insurance that will pay off big time when it does.

The rest of us have to keep on working for a living.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:05 | 2070570 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

MDB how did that work out for you in 2008?

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:08 | 2070580 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

"Us.." LOL. You sound like one of those dumb sports fans that think you played in the Super Bowl when you're just watching from your taxpayer-funded ass on the couch.

I don't feel sorry for you scrubs.. I feel angry at you taxpayer-funded scrubs that think your job is a God-given right.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:24 | 2070594 falak pema
falak pema's picture

well, that's the politically correct stance to take; Citi can NEVER go belly up! 

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:17 | 2070599 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Many of the top tier or too big to fail banks are now zombies. Citi, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan all underperforming the wild eyed markets. Stay bullish though until the cliff dive. I'm sure you'll see it coming .

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:47 | 2070697 Judge Arrow
Judge Arrow's picture

Yes, Greece has defaulted 5 times since its independence and now makes 6 - and why not feel comfy and cozy with that invisible hedge - sovereign defaults just means opportunity for private funds - rightorama - all will be well, just fine, really, just you wait and see -- nothing that a little consumer growth won't fix= housing is coming back and Obama will get the boot - the debt? the printing? ah, nothing but a bump in the road - what if old Euro defaults - who cares - some bright guy with a new company will come along and I will make money while you hand wringers are stacking worthless bars of gold - someone will be on top and I intend to be one of them - somehow. Retail stocks and financials. It doesn't get any better, folks. Really. It doesn't. Smart guys told me so.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:51 | 2070708 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

I do feel sorry for the doomers on days like these. They like to believe that the world is out of control and that they're on the winning side of the trade.


"Doomers," as you label them, don't trade.  They accumulate in preparation for what is certain to come.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 10:56 | 2070931 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture



Talk is cheap my friend....shut it and keep buying....Show us the way

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 11:41 | 2071080 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture



Tue, 01/17/2012 - 12:52 | 2071380 mktsrmanipulated
mktsrmanipulated's picture

feel sorry for all you want i am short euros from 1.40 how am i doing....keep living the lie

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 08:48 | 2070517 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture


Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:01 | 2070553 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Looky. March 20th. Lot's of people down-voted this exact statement of mine yesterday.

This will be the meme going forward. March 20th, 21st. Remember the Iraq war? Against all odds. Fire rituals. It's when they like to burn things.

Or concepts.

Like sovereignity. Or "free"dumb. Everything else will climax simultaneously also. Beware the ides of march is not march 15th. It's the week of the re-birth of the sun. On The Spring Equinox, blood must be spilt.

Watch.... Flooding in February. Blooding in March.



Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:05 | 2070564 falak pema
falak pema's picture

"blood must be spilt." Sounds ominously like a mass virgin sacrifice. Is it Kali that wants this...?

Padmani and satti...

Ori rhymes with Gori, like Mahmoud of Ghori, he was real bloody guy.


Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:16 | 2070603 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Yup he was Falak. Interesting thing is, for the mother (earth) the sacrifice was usually a Stud boy. 

Chasing games began with this. The man ran, the ritual of the hunt was enacted and then his head was lopped off.

It went from there, to animal to now largely symbolic (a la the wafer and the wine).


If only bloodthirsty types were happy enough to spill some wine eh?


Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:28 | 2070611 falak pema
falak pema's picture

dead on Ori. Those wine and wafer lot were bloody too if you disagreed! In fact, they all forget one thing : nothing great was achieved by man in politically correct mind frame. It has to be as heretic and game changer that the spark creates new paradigm. Ask GAutama, he was a game changer like all those others. 

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:04 | 2070569 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

You did call it I must say. I'm a Taurus, whatcha got for me? Not mocking ORI much love for ya...

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:14 | 2070593 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

:-) I know Gene. A taurian eh? The bull. it's all about Archetypes. And which third of the sign you were born in. 

Long discussion, too long for the rest here, eh? You know where to find me. 


Tue, 01/17/2012 - 08:49 | 2070518 licutis
licutis's picture

dude, its totally priced in

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:00 | 2070549 Mae Kadoodie
Mae Kadoodie's picture

Can anyone pull up a market chart and show me exactly when and where a Greece default was priced in?  I'm having trouble pinpointing it.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:06 | 2070576 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I think it was late in December around 2pm the dow dropped off four points before it"s 3pm ramp up. It got priced in right there.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:10 | 2070587 licutis
licutis's picture

I checked my notes, you are exactly right, that's when it happened.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 12:55 | 2071390 mktsrmanipulated
mktsrmanipulated's picture

so was enron....lehman bear whatever dude when it gets bad there becomes panic and with panic comes irrational actions time will tell

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 08:48 | 2070519 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Strange......endless market stupidity was the first thing I priced in.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:02 | 2070555 falak pema
falak pema's picture

how can you price in something so circular, it has no head nor tail, and its written all over it "fail" on one side and..."TBTF" on the other! Figure out that conundrum!

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:22 | 2070624 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Falak, are yuo perhaps referencing the now famous Mobius Strip? 

MoreBS strip? ;-)


Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:26 | 2070637 falak pema
falak pema's picture

I learnt a new word there : chiral.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 10:23 | 2070817 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Awesome, thanks for that.

My hands are clapping, but not overly matching. :-)


Wed, 01/18/2012 - 01:03 | 2073476 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Wikipedia has gone dark (to protest S.O.P.A.!)

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 10:50 | 2070883 BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

Moebius strip is one-sided, you can return to the same point and crawl along all of its surface without ever crossing the edge. Also, human body is topologically equivalent to a donut. Hence topologically today's markets are: donuts crawling alongside one-sided strip returning to the same point without ever noticing that even if they cross the edge, they will be on the same of it.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:29 | 2070638 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Ah the duality of corporate personhood.

And ORI the snake eatng it's tale is the ourbos symbol. However you spell it. With a lion in the center.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 10:19 | 2070798 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Oroborus I believe.

Heph, you have just hit such a resonant note, probably by happenstance, I cannot even begin to tell you.

The synchronicity factor.

To The Alchemist in us... ;-)

And seriously, the duality of duality, how about that Heph? Root question. No answer.


Tue, 01/17/2012 - 08:49 | 2070520 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

payments don't really matter - CDS triggering is the big thing nowadays

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:54 | 2070724 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Well it appears that has been priced in as well. Look on the Internet. The price assumes a 30% recovery.

I've been hoping for some kind of minor financial disaster to strike and help my shorts, but I'm sorry to report - it seems quite unlikely at this time.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 08:50 | 2070522 brewing
brewing's picture

and in other news, the markets still melt up...

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 08:50 | 2070525 weltvermesser
weltvermesser's picture

it "still" trades at 43.5

mostly in hands of retail sheeple (stupid german money) dreaming of a 100%+ return in a little over to month. i`ll stick with my gold and silver meanwhile. but nothing is impossible and maybe our tax money will help them out once again.

By the way is Kim Yong Il already nominated for the Karls Preis posthum? 

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 08:50 | 2070526 Sheikh Djibouti
Sheikh Djibouti's picture

This date has been coming up a lot recently in political and media circles here in France as well, concerning a Greek default.

Beware the Ides of March!

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 08:54 | 2070532 falak pema
falak pema's picture

don't cry for me Argentina...becomes... don't cry for me Hellena.

Sung in German !

Ausweis please! We don't know the discount rate on the Ausweis! 

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 08:56 | 2070537 El Gordo
El Gordo's picture

With the end of the world looming at the winter soltcise this year, they only need a six month extension and then it won't matter any more.  I'd call it pretty good timing to run out of money just about the same time the end of the world comes around.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 08:57 | 2070538 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

Rating Agencys are just trying to hammer in the final nail in the Coffin for Greece to benifit the Banks on their Credit Default Swaps.

What the IMF needs to do is to put a steak in the heart of the Vampire Banks instead.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 08:57 | 2070542 Flesh Wound
Flesh Wound's picture

HAHA I think this map will need a to have another color added to it. A color for countries that will be kicked out of the EU.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 08:59 | 2070545 new game
new game's picture

black swans are now light gray - can't ya see?

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:00 | 2070548 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

The market has no sense of being "real" at all otherwise just the talk of a sovereign default would be problematic and not mention multiple sovereign downgrades. In fact we all know this is how the elite have planned the end of Greece all along. The system is corrupt and the market is no longer free imo. Buyer beware. 

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:05 | 2070571 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture



No worries, the market has "discounted" a Greek default...that's why ES futures just cracked 1300 (well, that and Citi missing revenues and earnings)...aaallllll priced in.

F'ing BS!!!  I am NOT a buyer (well, silver aside of course)

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:05 | 2070572 roy10
roy10's picture

Greece is meaningless to markets at this point. Portugal also getting to that point. It's all about Italy and Spain, and yieldson both of those are improving rapidly.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 12:11 | 2071227 taraxias
taraxias's picture

Yields are improving rapidly.


So what? So the ECB decided to print money to allow the insolvent states to continue their unsustainable spending for another day. So what? What is unsustainable will not be sustained no matter how much pixie dust the ECB sprays over it. It's just a question of time, and judging by the half life of each successive CB intervention since 2008, that time is not too far away.

Nothing has been solved because the problem has no solution. Sooner or later, the CBs will lose control and the ensuing collapse will make the black plague look like the good old times.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:07 | 2070574 WaEver
WaEver's picture

How come they sold 13 week t-bills ar 4.6% ? Did they throw in ouzo & tzatziki as teaser ? Or do you get repaid in holiday vouchers ?

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:09 | 2070581 Flesh Wound
Flesh Wound's picture

Greece should never have been allowed into the EU in the first place. What sensible country wants to rely on a country that can only tax its public servants? Who knows the Greek president might be shorting the market and makng a killing. I know I would be.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:11 | 2070589 yellowsub
yellowsub's picture

They already defaulted last year...

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:13 | 2070591 BinAround
BinAround's picture

When Greece defaults, is this when Merkel passes the new law to prohibit institutions from selling bad sovereign bonds?

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:51 | 2070709 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Yeah, and you finally know it's for real when they pass it off as nothing.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:15 | 2070596 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

MDB, I'd pity you if it wasn't for the fact that you patently don't deserve my pity.

Good luck wanking over your Bernanke DVDs.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:20 | 2070619 q99x2
q99x2's picture

If Greece defaulted shouldn't Ireland default? Stock markets have to be manipulated higher with each defaulted country. Default is a good thing. Ireland should default. Spain should default. Italy should default. On an elevator to heaven - going up.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:20 | 2070621 Dorky
Dorky's picture

Everything that has to do with the stock market is more or less a bullshit.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:23 | 2070626 Flesh Wound
Flesh Wound's picture

The free market and capitalism work really well when failure is punished. If we keep bailing out these silly countries and banks how are they going to learn? We are teaching our big institutions that it is ok to fail! One day not even the tax payer will have a cent left and then who does the bailing out?


Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:23 | 2070630 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

No worries. You'll be paid in Greek Krackmas.
Release the Kraken!!!

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:28 | 2070639 OldE_Ant
OldE_Ant's picture

Yeah but with a daily melt up of the ES of .5-1% this means the markets will be up a whopping 30-60% by the time that happens, gold and silver will be flat of course, oil (since no-one has any) will be up like 100% and we will still supposively see 'tame inflation' according to the FEDholes, natural gas will be sub $2/MMcf, etc. etc.

Then when the markets finally fall, gold and silver can fall below recent lows to satisfy the big gold/silver sellers over the past year or two, the dollar and US bonds will rise to line the pockets of the Fed and everyone can call it 'crisis averted'.   This will last for a few days, a week, or a month and then store shelves will start looking a little barren.  Once slightly barren shelves are noticed and it is reported (like on ZH but not in the real news) that not just gold and silver can't be had in any real form other than 'paper' but that also important things like water, food, gas, oil, cars, you name it, are getting hard to find, then things will start to get real intresting.

You know by then the northern hemisphere will be in spring so it won't matter if people don't have jobs, houses, or land. They can plant lettuce in the dirt in their clothes and dance for rain since they won't have a care in the world.  Local govts can send their single police officer around to try to collect taxes from the indigent, or better imprision them and do a little encourging forced labor.

I feel like I live in Smurfville where everything is bright happy blue and it's all smurferific..  But then papa smurf smacks me with a whip "get back to work dumpy stupid smurf" while Gargamell laughs.  It's starting to looking like gold and silver won't be the commodity of choice, but guns, ammo, and armor, with water/food close seconds.  That's the real translation for Fedcode 'inflation target'.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:40 | 2070673 Reptil
Reptil's picture

Schulz is now heading the european parliament.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 10:33 | 2070856 Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

I've been hearing about this "imminent" Greek default for over 12 months now.  Let me know when it actually happens.  In the mean time I'll keep investing in precious metals... lead, brass and blued steel.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 10:42 | 2070890 satan2liberals
satan2liberals's picture

So is that why the market is up today?

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 11:58 | 2071164 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture


A Greek default was SUPPOSED to be cataclysmic so that a bailout could be organized to prevent it.

Now that the Greek default is unavoidable no matter how many bailouts Greece obtains, the default is NOT cataclysmic any more (it better not be).

This means the banks holding Greek debt (except for Greek banks) will be bailed out instead of Greece itself (Greece simply being a conduit between the bailers and the bailees).

No problema!

Next is Portugal ... wait a minute! If a Greek default isn't the end of the world as we know it, all the other EU countries will default themselves! After Portugal will follow Italy and Spain. Ireland will threaten default in order to obtain better terms from the EU establishment (corpse).

That means Germany will race the other countries to the euro exit. It doesn't want to be left holding the (massively expanding) euro debt bag.

In a few months it's going to be like old times, with a mess of squabbling principalities with their own little currencies. A Frenchman will need his passport to travel from Paris to Munich, it will be stamped on the train by a sneering petty customs official. Our traveler will have to learn an old instinctive gesture, to reach into his pocket for the small bribe.

When he arrives, he will have to change his (worthless) francs for (equally worthless) marks at the train station. Nearby the people will be lined up in the snow with hopeful eyes selling their shoes, kitchen utensils and coats ... there will be no buyers.

Just like the good ol' days!

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 01:16 | 2073505 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

I see you have issues with "moral hazard..."

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 12:35 | 2071332 Spigot
Spigot's picture

I suppose we'll find out what happens when $400 billion in government bonds get derivatives triggered, huh?

CDS party tunes anyone?

And here's a funny thought:

So, European entity XYZ bought $10 Billion Euros of Greek bonds at a discount, had CDS contracts written on those bonds, then sold them to the ECB. When the CDS is triggered do they get the "insurance payment" from the derivatives contract? I would assume so!


Tue, 01/17/2012 - 12:57 | 2071393 mktsrmanipulated
mktsrmanipulated's picture

does ZH have anything on who the largest CDS insurer there is on greek debt

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 16:09 | 2072038 dannyboy
dannyboy's picture

you want zh to wipe your ass too? thats all public info lol.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 16:10 | 2072039 dannyboy
dannyboy's picture


Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!