Fitch Says Greece Will Default By March 20 Bond Payment

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It's all over but the crying at least as far as Greece is concerned. First, it was S&P's Kraemer telling Bloomberg yesterday the country is finished, now today for dramatic impact, we get Fitch's repeating the doom and gloom, stating that the country will likely default before its March 20 payment. From Bloomberg: "Greece is insolvent and will default on its debts, Fitch Ratings Managing Director Edward Parker said. The euro area’s most indebted country is unlikely to be able to honor a March 20 bond payment of 14.5 billion euros ($18 billion), Parker said in an interview in Stockholm today. Efforts to arrange a private sector deal on how to handle Greece’s obligations would constitute a default at Fitch, he said.  “The so called private sector involvement, for us, would count as a default, it clearly is a default in our book,” Parker said. “So it won’t be a surprise when the Greek default actually happens and we expect it one way or the other to be relatively soon." Europe’s debt crisis is likely to be “long and drawn out,” Parker said." And here we go again, with official attempts to make what appeared apocalyptic as recently as a month ago, seem trite, boring and perfectly anticipated. In other words, the fact that this like every other piece of bad news that should be priced in, is priced in, is priced in. And so on, at least according to the kleptocrats, until we finally learn that nothing is priced in but endless market stupidity.

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Tue, 01/17/2012 - 08:49 | 2070516 trampstamp
trampstamp's picture

sweet! Long gondola's

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 08:59 | 2070547 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Many of my top tier banking stocks have issued large quantities of sovereign CDS and the ISDA has my back no matter what the doomers or rogue rating agencies say about sovereign defaults. I do feel sorry for the doomers on days like these. They like to believe that the world is out of control and that they're on the winning side of the trade. However, the truth is that I and other equity investors have congress, the Federal Reserve, the ECB and the ISDA on our side and backing us up. This is the invisible hedge that emboldens us to take large positions in retail and financial stocks.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:01 | 2070552 Irish66
Irish66's picture

Good luck with Citi

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:02 | 2070559 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Absolutely. Great assessment.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:04 | 2070561 Sam Clemons
Sam Clemons's picture

TANSTAAFL

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:04 | 2070565 Better_late_tha...
Better_late_than_never's picture

You are living in a dream world.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:13 | 2070590 Yamaha
Yamaha's picture

Dream world yes - Ponzi world? Everywhere - complete fraud......

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:14 | 2070592 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

No, the doomer day traders are living in a dream world. In their world, respected government officials are somehow making 'devious' and 'corrupt' deals behind closed doors, top Ivy League economics professors and Nobel Laureates don't understand the global economy, and United States dollars are just "pieces of paper". Lol keep dreaming, because everything is under control and when the dream ends I will be the winner.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:16 | 2070604 falak pema
falak pema's picture

"looking with amazement" would drink to that...such a boring world...

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 10:46 | 2070905 Badabing
Badabing's picture

Milliondollarbonus!

This is mom! Its time to come up out of the basement and eat your breakfast!

NOW YOUNG MAN!!!

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 11:43 | 2071094 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

 

 

Hmmm ...

MDB, do you have an address where I can ship your remains?

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:33 | 2070653 jcaz
jcaz's picture

So....  Your Mom is gonna let you buy another share of Netflix then?

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:53 | 2070720 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

doomer day traders

 

Contradiction in terms.  Bona fide "doomers," or "realists" if you prefer, aren't day traders.  Day traders set up umbrella stands; realists build arks and store stuff in 'em.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 13:26 | 2071484 ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

Let's do a play by play on MDB

'No, the doomer day traders [DDT] are living in a dream world."

MDB 1 - 0 DDT

"In their world, respected government officials are somehow making 'devious' and 'corrupt' deals behind closed doors, top Ivy League economics professors and Nobel Laureates don't understand the global economy, and United States dollars are just "pieces of paper"

MDB 1 - 1 DDT

"Lol keep dreaming, because everything is under control and when the dream ends I will be the winner."

Until everything isn't under control anymore

DDT win the shootout. 

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:05 | 2070568 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

The Sky Is Falling.... no I really mean it this time... The Sky Is Falling! There is a wolf coming! The end is nigh!

Doom fatigue has sunk in as we all begin to realize... the sun will come up Wednesday, January 18, 2012, and most likely... the big banks have insurance that will pay off big time when it does.

The rest of us have to keep on working for a living.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:05 | 2070570 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

MDB how did that work out for you in 2008?

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:08 | 2070580 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

"Us.." LOL. You sound like one of those dumb sports fans that think you played in the Super Bowl when you're just watching from your taxpayer-funded ass on the couch.

I don't feel sorry for you scrubs.. I feel angry at you taxpayer-funded scrubs that think your job is a God-given right.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:24 | 2070594 falak pema
falak pema's picture

well, that's the politically correct stance to take; Citi can NEVER go belly up! 

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:17 | 2070599 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Many of the top tier or too big to fail banks are now zombies. Citi, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan all underperforming the wild eyed markets. Stay bullish though until the cliff dive. I'm sure you'll see it coming .

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:47 | 2070697 Judge Arrow
Judge Arrow's picture

Yes, Greece has defaulted 5 times since its independence and now makes 6 - and why not feel comfy and cozy with that invisible hedge - sovereign defaults just means opportunity for private funds - rightorama - all will be well, just fine, really, just you wait and see -- nothing that a little consumer growth won't fix= housing is coming back and Obama will get the boot - the debt? the printing? ah, nothing but a bump in the road - what if old Euro defaults - who cares - some bright guy with a new company will come along and I will make money while you hand wringers are stacking worthless bars of gold - someone will be on top and I intend to be one of them - somehow. Retail stocks and financials. It doesn't get any better, folks. Really. It doesn't. Smart guys told me so.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:51 | 2070708 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

I do feel sorry for the doomers on days like these. They like to believe that the world is out of control and that they're on the winning side of the trade.

 

"Doomers," as you label them, don't trade.  They accumulate in preparation for what is certain to come.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 10:56 | 2070931 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

MDB,

 

Talk is cheap my friend....shut it and keep buying....Show us the way

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 11:41 | 2071080 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

>>>>>!

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 12:52 | 2071380 mktsrmanipulated
mktsrmanipulated's picture

feel sorry for all you want i am short euros from 1.40 how am i doing....keep living the lie

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 08:48 | 2070517 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Good.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:01 | 2070553 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Looky. March 20th. Lot's of people down-voted this exact statement of mine yesterday.

This will be the meme going forward. March 20th, 21st. Remember the Iraq war? Against all odds. Fire rituals. It's when they like to burn things.

Or concepts.

Like sovereignity. Or "free"dumb. Everything else will climax simultaneously also. Beware the ides of march is not march 15th. It's the week of the re-birth of the sun. On The Spring Equinox, blood must be spilt.

Watch.... Flooding in February. Blooding in March.

ori

/truth/

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:05 | 2070564 falak pema
falak pema's picture

"blood must be spilt." Sounds ominously like a mass virgin sacrifice. Is it Kali that wants this...?

Padmani and satti...

Ori rhymes with Gori, like Mahmoud of Ghori, he was real bloody guy.

)))


Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:16 | 2070603 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Yup he was Falak. Interesting thing is, for the mother (earth) the sacrifice was usually a Stud boy. 

Chasing games began with this. The man ran, the ritual of the hunt was enacted and then his head was lopped off.

It went from there, to animal to now largely symbolic (a la the wafer and the wine).

;-)

If only bloodthirsty types were happy enough to spill some wine eh?

ori

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:28 | 2070611 falak pema
falak pema's picture

dead on Ori. Those wine and wafer lot were bloody too if you disagreed! In fact, they all forget one thing : nothing great was achieved by man in politically correct mind frame. It has to be as heretic and game changer that the spark creates new paradigm. Ask GAutama, he was a game changer like all those others. 

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:04 | 2070569 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

You did call it I must say. I'm a Taurus, whatcha got for me? Not mocking ORI much love for ya...

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:14 | 2070593 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

:-) I know Gene. A taurian eh? The bull. it's all about Archetypes. And which third of the sign you were born in. 

Long discussion, too long for the rest here, eh? You know where to find me. 

ori

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 08:49 | 2070518 licutis
licutis's picture

dude, its totally priced in

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:00 | 2070549 Mae Kadoodie
Mae Kadoodie's picture

Can anyone pull up a market chart and show me exactly when and where a Greece default was priced in?  I'm having trouble pinpointing it.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:06 | 2070576 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I think it was late in December around 2pm the dow dropped off four points before it"s 3pm ramp up. It got priced in right there.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:10 | 2070587 licutis
licutis's picture

I checked my notes, you are exactly right, that's when it happened.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 12:55 | 2071390 mktsrmanipulated
mktsrmanipulated's picture

so was enron....lehman bear whatever dude when it gets bad there becomes panic and with panic comes irrational actions time will tell

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 08:48 | 2070519 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Strange......endless market stupidity was the first thing I priced in.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:02 | 2070555 falak pema
falak pema's picture

how can you price in something so circular, it has no head nor tail, and its written all over it "fail" on one side and..."TBTF" on the other! Figure out that conundrum!

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:22 | 2070624 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Falak, are yuo perhaps referencing the now famous Mobius Strip? 

MoreBS strip? ;-)

ori

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:26 | 2070637 falak pema
falak pema's picture

I learnt a new word there : chiral.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chirality_(mathematics)

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 10:23 | 2070817 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Awesome, thanks for that.

My hands are clapping, but not overly matching. :-)

ori

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 01:03 | 2073476 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Wikipedia has gone dark (to protest S.O.P.A.!)

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 10:50 | 2070883 BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

Moebius strip is one-sided, you can return to the same point and crawl along all of its surface without ever crossing the edge. Also, human body is topologically equivalent to a donut. Hence topologically today's markets are: donuts crawling alongside one-sided strip returning to the same point without ever noticing that even if they cross the edge, they will be on the same of it.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:29 | 2070638 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Ah the duality of corporate personhood.

And ORI the snake eatng it's tale is the ourbos symbol. However you spell it. With a lion in the center.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 10:19 | 2070798 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Oroborus I believe.

Heph, you have just hit such a resonant note, probably by happenstance, I cannot even begin to tell you.

The synchronicity factor.

To The Alchemist in us... ;-)

And seriously, the duality of duality, how about that Heph? Root question. No answer.

ori

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 08:49 | 2070520 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

payments don't really matter - CDS triggering is the big thing nowadays

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 09:54 | 2070724 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Well it appears that has been priced in as well. Look on the Internet. The price assumes a 30% recovery.

I've been hoping for some kind of minor financial disaster to strike and help my shorts, but I'm sorry to report - it seems quite unlikely at this time.

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 08:50 | 2070522 brewing
brewing's picture

and in other news, the markets still melt up...

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 08:50 | 2070525 weltvermesser
weltvermesser's picture

it "still" trades at 43.5 http://www.onvista.de/anleihen/snapshot.html?ID_INSTRUMENT=23469642&PERIOD=0&ID_NOTATION=27640222#chart

mostly in hands of retail sheeple (stupid german money) dreaming of a 100%+ return in a little over to month. i`ll stick with my gold and silver meanwhile. but nothing is impossible and maybe our tax money will help them out once again.

By the way is Kim Yong Il already nominated for the Karls Preis posthum? 

Tue, 01/17/2012 - 08:50 | 2070526 Sheikh Djibouti
Sheikh Djibouti's picture

This date has been coming up a lot recently in political and media circles here in France as well, concerning a Greek default.

Beware the Ides of March!

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