Fitch Sets The Stage: "Greece Leaving The Euro Would Be Bearable"
If French Fitch, which will first be Egan-Jonesed than downgrade France from its unmovable AAA rating is starting to say that the unthinkable, namely the departure of Greece from the Eurozone, would be "bearable", then things are about to get once again exciting, as this is merely setting the stage for the next leg down. Among the other google translated gibberish said by Fitch chief Taylor, here is the argument: Germany would merely soak up the damage caused by a Greek departure: "Greece's exit does not mean the end of the euro. Above all, Germany has a fundamental interest in preserving the common currency remains. Would the D-mark re-introduced, they would add value compared to other currencies strong. The export industry, that is: would the engine of the German economy, damaged. This will not allow Germany - even if one or more countries leave the single currency area." How about Italy's exit? Or Portugal's? Or Spain's? At what point does it become unbearable for German taxpayers to burn their wealth to preserve a system that virtually nobody but a few select career politicians demand?
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Mr. Taylor, you know the rating reflex?
Taylor: No, what is it?
SPIEGEL ONLINE: If you happy and your colleagues a country with a rating of AAA top grade, the government boasted: "Hurrah, we are Triple-A. ' If you downgrade it, it says suddenly: "Oh, these ratings entirely overrated.."
Taylor: Yes, this reaction is known to me.
SPIEGEL: Such arbitrary use of its marks does not speak just for a good reputation in its field of politics. Plug-rating agencies in the crisis of confidence?
Taylor: The reflex does not make sense. Our reviews are a technical tool for the financial markets. For professionals who understand the limitations of ratings.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Politicians do not understand your ratings?
Taylor: politicians have no power over the ratings of their countries. They suggest, however, sometimes, that it were so. Or they use credit ratings for populist purposes. Both should stop.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: We can understand the anger but already. It looks as if its bad news announced rating agencies usually calculated when the euro-zone draws back just a bit of hope. To outsiders their decisions are often not traceable.
Taylor: The perception is distorted. The French example: We have just said that we may downgrade the country in the coming months from the top AAA rating to a still very good score. Already this has provoked a storm of indignation.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: You classified the end of January at a stroke five countries of the Euro-zone down. Were the reactions to it over the top too?
Taylor: You look at how the ratings of the Euro-zone countries have developed since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2007. The values ??are changing very slowly. There were significant changes, but in most countries, no dramatic.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Many Europeans still have enough that U.S. companies have the authority to make the financial situation in the euro area countries. Now to create a European rating agency. What do you think of the new competition?
Taylor: I have nothing against competition. I only wonder how such an agency has many followers. It seems that there is hope that a European agency assigns better ratings for Europe. I do not think that such a patriotic approach builds trust.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Your business model creates not just confidence. Your agency can be paid for by those whose financial situation, they rated.
Taylor: Our business model is straightforward. Finance and ratings are strictly separated. Compliance with this separation is closely monitored.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: The European rating agency wants to avoid even the slightest doubt about their credibility. She wants to be financed by investors.
Taylor: I do not think you get together with this business model, the resources to compete in the global competition.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Critics of your agency and your colleagues well before U.S. incompetence. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble doubts that you have really understood what Europe has everything to put reforms in motion.
Taylor: I 'm European. And I'm for more Europe. If the Euro-zone one country, they would receive from us a triple-A rating.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: That is surprising. Where does this sudden confidence bonus?
Taylor: We believe that Europe's largest economy will continue to support the euro-zone further - to push forward with structural reforms in return. This has worked well so far. Just bought the European Central Bank with German blessing Italian government bonds. At the same time Germany pushed for an Italian austerity package. The interest rates on Italian government bonds fell, saved Italy - and got a sparwilligeren head of government.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: This course meets just to its limits. In the elections in Athens and Paris, the savings-hawks have lost power.
Taylor: It is true that the rhetoric of resentment is rising. That does not mean that changes the policy. Even a president Hollande will be subordinated to the constraints.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Greece schliddert into ungovernability. A secession from the euro-zone is more likely. Would that be the end of the common European currency?
Taylor: Yes. Greece's exit does not mean the end of the euro. Above all, Germany has a fundamental interest in preserving the common currency remains. Would the D-mark re-introduced, they would add value compared to other currencies strong. The export industry, that is: would the engine of the German economy, damaged. This will not allow Germany - even if one or more countries leave the single currency area.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Would not it be better to adopt too much over-indebted countries, a portion of their liabilities - as happened in Greece?
Taylor: Yes. The average debt had disastrous consequences. Investors were promised that their members always supported community currency. The promise was broken, shattered public confidence in the euro-zone depth. Now foreign investors are asking: "And what will happen soon in Portugal or Spain?" Many pull out their money.