This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

FMX Connect Gold Options Report - August 15, 2011

Tyler Durden's picture





 

From FMX Connect

Gold Options Report - August 15, 2011

Market Recap:

The S&P 500 extended its rally on Monday, closing at 1204.49 for a gain of 2.18% on the day. The dollar index was down sharply (73.872, -.985%) on lackluster manufacturing data while German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s and French president Nicolas Sarkozy’s scheduled meeting for tomorrow strengthened the euro. Gold and treasury bonds were the safe-haven assets of choice, with investors’ enthusiasm for currencies like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen dampening on the threat of intervention.   

Gold traded lower overnight but trended upward the rest of the day. The knee-jerk reaction to last week’s margin hike is over, and speculators are beginning to feel more comfortable buying again. The options term structure is haphazard, with calendar relationships mispriced up and down the curve. October and February trade in line with what could potentially be an emergent contango curve, yet December and its serial brethren trade above that. We can only guess why this hasn’t been slammed yet; probably too many people are preoccupied not making money or taking lower-lying fruit to not take advantage of these trades. The GLD market-makers are back-to-backing same expiration across different assets. Comex locals are trying to lock in profits to make margin calls. The dealers are hoping their gamma covers their short call positions and longs are hitting bids trying to lock in profits. In the meantime, the volatility curve looks like a maimed seagull. What we can decipher from this is if the market settles down we think a contango curve will resume itself with October as the low point, December coming in line and the curve sloping upward through December 2012. If the market spikes higher we think October will lag December in performance. October is in liquidation mode now. September is not even worth mentioning.

The trading today was consistent with the last three days, with one exception: Dealers bought calls. Dealers bought them in fence form, but they were careful to sell volatility in premium while covering their short calls. Examples include the 1700/2000 Risk Reversal and other structures of that type that sold premium yet bought skew. Remember the December 2000 Call is a 15 delta item now, hardly a typical skew option, yet it has premium of over $22. Volatility is by no means cheap. Simultaneously, it is by no means unjustified.

Directional Commentary:

Options: Up until today, between the call liquidation and the straddle selling we would have said the market was poised for a quick sell-off or a slow move higher. Today’s risk reversal trading by dealers makes us lean toward the latter, and at a slightly faster pace. Our technical analysis below highlights levels to watch. Options just don’t show us washing out right now. Perhaps another two or three margin raises will do the trick. Conclusion: Mildly Bullish

Technical: Gold shrugged off the two-day engulfing pattern from Friday, settling up $15 on the day and trading higher through the close. For all intents and purposes gold remains in a range and is looking for a settlement below 1720 or above 1785 to initiate the next leg. Interestingly, bullion did not test breakout area we previously described, suggesting that there may be strong buying interest in the 1730 area (our other indicators support this assertion). If gold fails to break out of this range on the upside it should test 1720. A move through 1720 or 1685 should prompt moves to the 1685 and 1825 strikes respectively. Long-term this market remains bullish, but short-term we think there is more potential to the downside (especially if the CME is ready to hike margins again). Conclusion: Sideways to Bearish

 

image

Active Options

V 1600 P

Z 1700/2000 Fence

Z 1800/1900/2000 C. Butterfly

 

ATM Volatility Curve:

image

As of 3:00 P.M.

 

Volatility Smile:

image

***From NYMEX Settlement

 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Mon, 08/15/2011 - 18:58 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

while my guitar gently weeps

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 19:01 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

why is silver NOT $60/oz yet? 

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 19:05 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

don't rely on spot price.

silver is going for a lot more than spot nowadays.

try actually getting your hands on physical and you'll see.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 19:46 | Link to Comment lawrence1
lawrence1's picture

Exactly.  Buy while its still so slow. Im betting that Sprott is right, that silver is the trade of this second decale of the century.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 19:55 | Link to Comment Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

I don't know about "a lot," but there is a premium to be sure..

My last ASE purchase was at $46.30 ea.  Bought a roll of walking liberties at the same time, and they came out to $42.67/oz, if you throw out the copper melt value (it's negligable anyhow.)

The thing about physical is that there are a lot of numismatic coins at the shops and on eBay, and they throw off quick assessments.  When it looks like ASEs are going for $90 each, they're almost always "proofs."  Some of the 90% coins are "rare dates."  The coin shop I use has been out of common ASEs for months and months, and all he has left are proofs.

Ampex has ASEs at $44.63 ea right now, without a volume discount.

I guess the point is that there is always a way to pay more, but the premiums over paper spot price aren't extreme just yet.  And despite rumors to the contrary, I have never had any problem just walking in and buying silver, or ordering online.  Those things may come, but they're not here just yet.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 20:49 | Link to Comment Idiot Savant
Idiot Savant's picture

Meh, on a percentage basis, premiums are the same today as they were when silver was $12.00. Seems like I paid roughly two dollars over spot at the time. 16.6% * 39.73 = $6.59 - roughly in line with today's premiums.

Sorry, but there's no shortages and premiums aren't out of line. Idiots paying huge premiums on Ebay is not a barometer of the silver market.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 23:48 | Link to Comment Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

Isn't that what I said?

The worst I've seen is right after the margin hikes in May, when the local coin shop decided to price Peace dollars and Morgans at a flat rate, presumably to make sure they didn't get skinned.  Even then, they were $30 ea, and the guy had a whole box of the suckers.

Personally, I'm kind of glad it's trading in this range for a while.  $40/oz give or take a couple bucks feels about right as a place for the market to built support.  It's still affordable, but is high enough to seem like real money to most people.  Far better to get the price fixed in peoples' minds before it makes another run for it, so people stop worrying about it going back to $4/oz.

I'm not entirely convinced that there is ever going to be a shortage- 90% silver coins were transactional money for decades, and Gresham's law pulled them out of circulation and stacked them in closets.  There are a lot of silver coins out there in paint cans and tucked away in dusty boxes in the rafters of old houses, and I'd be glad to see them come back out and return to circulation.

I'm going to break with the "to the moon" theory- that may happen, but only in nominal dollars.  As far as transactions go, I can easily see those coins moving into circulation as the USD continues to deflate.  It'd be a hell of a way to starve the beast, too.  I don't think it's any kind of stretch to imagine silver coinage as daily transactional money, with a silver dollar having the equivilent purchasing power of $40 today, a half at $20, a quarter at $10, and SAEs at $50.  Almost all daily transactions, such as gasoline and groceries, could be handled with that structure, and the existing coinage could be used as small change.

That seems like a far more sensible proposition than imagining that a silver dollar will buy a town, though if it goes that way, I'll be happy to participate by, well, buying the town.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 21:29 | Link to Comment Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

+!

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 21:28 | Link to Comment Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

One can still buy 40%. 90% and war nickels near spot and sometimes below spot at this time.

Tuco

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 19:06 | Link to Comment Thomas
Thomas's picture

Healing the wounds inflicted by the five margin hikes. Takes a few weeks.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 19:15 | Link to Comment FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

Why not ask Blythe yourself?

http://blythemasters.blogspot.com/

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 09:56 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

You're still pushing that honeypot?

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 19:43 | Link to Comment MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Because you live in a courrpt country where they manipulate your ability to make money unless you want to buy the shit they spoon feed you.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 19:54 | Link to Comment Thomas
Thomas's picture

...and then you will still fail to make money.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 19:04 | Link to Comment legal eagle
legal eagle's picture

Thanks for this post.  I would like to see this information more regularly!

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 19:14 | Link to Comment kengland
kengland's picture

Where are you buying your metal? I'm paying 1.50 over spot

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 19:41 | Link to Comment Got_Nukes
Got_Nukes's picture

Westminster mint about $1.10 over spot

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 20:48 | Link to Comment FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Tulving is 29 cents over spot.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 01:13 | Link to Comment Sokhmate
Sokhmate's picture

Looks like ~ 2 dollars less over spot that what i see on their site!!!

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 19:16 | Link to Comment Diablo
Mon, 08/15/2011 - 19:24 | Link to Comment Whatta
Whatta's picture

Wow. 680 million in gold options. He's a believer.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 21:27 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

the thing that is not on the news right now...

is that the family offices and Funds are ALL BUYING!

standing for delivery..

sooooo when that shit hits the main stream, WATCH OUT!!

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 19:18 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Tyler, 

You got to post that 180 degree whip around by Dick Bove...now buying banks.  This after his "sell everything" call from about 8 days ago.

Ever the paid whore, Bove has done it again, helped to create the dislocation some client somewhere wanted...and is now trying to turn that ship from the long side.

How does a fuck like that even sleep?

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 19:29 | Link to Comment Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Just tune out the shills they talk shit.

I don't buy into the TA as much as fundamentals. I do pay attention to TA because robots and traders do, but fundamentals will always win out in the end.

What's the record for consecutive triple digit Dow closes? Was it broken today?

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 19:34 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Dick Bove before he dicks you.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 21:01 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

He enjoys fucking people over. It is just a fun game to him.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 19:22 | Link to Comment Tejano
Tejano's picture

Gotta' love it. Blah, blah, blah and "If gold fails to break out of this range on the upside..." and blah, blah, blah complete with smiling multicolored charts. These guys remind me of ancient soothsayers poking around in sparrow entrails. We'll talk again in a year.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 19:29 | Link to Comment JohnG
JohnG's picture

You're wrong.  FMX offers good analysis.  The vol smile is very important for forecasting.  Presenting as a surface over time is quite indicative of future direction.

FMX does good work.  I'd say you are new here, haven't checked yet.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 20:13 | Link to Comment Tejano
Tejano's picture

"In the meantime, the volatility curve looks like a maimed seagull."

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 20:19 | Link to Comment fmxconnect
fmxconnect's picture

An unsmooth curve reflects different breakevens in volatility. Much like an unsmooth curve in bond term structure represents potential free money in cost of carry situations. The seagull was forfun. The math i will spare you. Butterfly arbitrages are based on these concepts. This would not be technical analysis, but options theory and term structure cost ofcarry arbitrage.

 

 

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 21:43 | Link to Comment dumpster
dumpster's picture

any one follow sinclairs advice on gold

 

When gold broke out above $524.90 I asked you to please cease trading as gold had moved from phase 1 into a runaway price phase

i'll bet dollars to donuts all this fancy trading has not given any one the returns of just this simple hold on gold

not to mention if a person who is so privy now as all the analysists .. where were they at 300 gold ... and 4.25 silver

 

just saying

 

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 19:31 | Link to Comment JohnG
JohnG's picture

Yeah, 24 weeks.  You should read and pay attention for another year before bashing excellent work.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 20:10 | Link to Comment fmxconnect
fmxconnect's picture

muchas gracias. register for a basic account. Ill see ot it that you are upgraded premium support@fmxconnect.com 

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 20:19 | Link to Comment Tejano
Tejano's picture

"What we can decipher from this is..."

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 20:22 | Link to Comment fmxconnect
fmxconnect's picture

You must be a Doug KAss fan. We tore him a new asshole last month. 

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 20:52 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

They could always be right for the wrong reason. These patterns are interesting, but mean reversal is more consistent. Even if the mean is dynamic.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 19:24 | Link to Comment Whatta
Whatta's picture

Mildly bullish is a good thing. 100 runs in a week are fun, but lets keep it real.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 19:34 | Link to Comment apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

I'm still at a loss how technical analyses is at all meaningful in a market that has been so thoroughly rigged and manipulated.  Otherwise, a good article from a trader's point of view.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 20:13 | Link to Comment fmxconnect
fmxconnect's picture

not my opinion, but valid nonetheless. "in a market where people are dishonest adn fundamentals are manipulated, the only theingthat is honest is technical analysis. it betrays the biases and weakensses of collective traders. it aint easy but it works." Technical analysis is the "tell" of the market.  Personally I tell our technicians it is voodoo witch doctor shit, but it serves a purpose. im an options stat guy.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 20:54 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Great article by the way.

Always a great read.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 20:39 | Link to Comment Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

It means something, because it means something to someone. I swear the TA people can drive you nuts because the whole world could be burning but theyre too busy drawing lines and making out head and shoulders etc. To notice.

Everyones goal is to be on the right side of the trade.

The guys on cnbs are the worst. On down days they they ya it's all going down, here why. Then on up days they tell you it's all good. Even if you watched their shit everyday all day you'd still lose.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 19:36 | Link to Comment fellatio is not...
fellatio is not fattening's picture

On the 1700-2000 fence, I can visualize what you mean but can you be more specific as to which strikes, OR leave a link I can go to for myself.  Thanks much, BTW was thinking of buying Dec gold future and selling an $1850 call against and getting $40 in premium, thoughts.  I know it COULD go higher, but a 90 point gain in 70 days isn't bad

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 20:07 | Link to Comment fmxconnect
fmxconnect's picture

Dealers were buying 15 delta calls, like the Z 2000 strike, while simultaneously selling the 1700 puts a 40 delta option. These trades are commonly called collars in equities,fences risk or reversals in commodities. theproximity of the put to the ATM strike made this moreofa volatiliy sale than a simple collar. basically, the dealers aretakingthiergamma, which served tocovertheirasses because they areso ratio short calls to theupside, adn started t oroll them up /to their shorts. conclusion from this data point : We aint going anywhere, but if we do its higher. keep in mind that dealers are now a muc hsmallerportion ofa biggermarket, adn do not exert the influence they once did. 

 

regardin the 1850 call adn the 90 point gain. it is impossible to answer without your capital at risk, your risk tolerance or your other financial positions. alli can say is the Z 2000 calls have 40k in open interest, and if we get there it we be AFTERwe go thru the 1850 call. jsur make sure ti is money you can afford to lose. also have a plan on HOW you intend ot capture profits: hedging deltas, selling another call, sellign the 1850 out... etc etc.

vaya con dios

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 20:10 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Good article, sort of explains why my GLD Jan 13 135 Sept 170 spread was closed for 34.80 last week... Hating closing it, was selling the 170s for the premium and gold ran faster than expected.... Damn, oh, well, time to reload

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 21:37 | Link to Comment JW n FL
Wed, 08/17/2011 - 00:36 | Link to Comment fellatio is not...
fellatio is not fattening's picture

Shit man, I an waiting for 5 gold futures to expire in ~12 days which I WROTE 1550 CALLS against when gold was ~1500, I got $16, today they are $220, made some money but left $100k ON THE TABLE and all I can do is wait, sure as fuck not going to close it out in any way/shape or form

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 00:49 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Too bad, but you sold the calls for reason (like me).  I had reached maximum value, and now have cash and can buy any dip that may occur.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 22:02 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

fmxconnect,

I see...I see.  You know, I think the real problem is the SEVENTEEN FUCKING LAYERS OF DERIVATIVES ON TOP OF EVERY LAST PART OF THE MARKET.  

We probably just need more bankers and hedge funds and options junkies, and everything would be great, and we'd all be drinking delta calls after the bell...while the fucking nation burns.

If the old adage is true, that you are either part of the solution or you are part of the problem, I suspect you are part of the problem, fmx.

To all you guys who long ago filled your lock box with gold and silver...hat tip.  As for this paper gold bullshit...just more hangers on and parasitic class fucks.

Paper gold is a short tomorrow.  All you saw today was a reprieve, brought to you by the intellectually stunted class of Chinese morons who ape shit bought the Euro again.  And I didn't even need two layers of derivatives to get there...or any "ti is money you can afford to lose."

Good grief [and by that I mean fuck all this building of NEW houses of paper cards...in the obvious wind that's a blowin'] 

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 22:59 | Link to Comment moonstears
moonstears's picture

Cdad +1 lmao

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:01 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

I wonder what markets would look like if they were not gambling dens.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 00:29 | Link to Comment fellatio is not...
fellatio is not fattening's picture

Thanks so much for the information and opinion, as for the covered gold future, capital isn't an issue and I understand the risk, if I buy and get called away with the 90 point gain, i'm OK with that, if gold starts going up and through tje strike I can always buy more contracts and essentially start a new posn, and if gold drops that's always a risk, and selling the call doesn't change the ability to sell the long contract and either leaving the short call naked (in a dropping market that's profitable) and having a gain or buying it back which would be at a profit as well albeit smaller.  Essentially I like everyone else must determine my opinion of what direction I think gold will go short term (30-60 days).  Be well and profitable trading

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 20:31 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Shhh. Be vewy vewy qwite as USDX debasement continues. Oh, dat scwewy wabbit!


New Campaign Sloganfor upcoming election.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 21:41 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

;-)

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 20:44 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

GLD 50 dma is 155

GLD 100 dma is 150

Yep. I predict volatility but not the fun kind for you gold bugs.

Prepare to be buggered, bugs.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 20:53 | Link to Comment mynhair
mynhair's picture

Who cares.

F Ag.  F Au. F S&P.  And F Oweblahma.

Oh, and FTW.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 21:14 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

what a noble cat-itude!

 

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 21:38 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

just tell him you will vote repugnant no matter what and he will be happy!

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 22:17 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

he knows i'm a lib!  L0L!

jay-dub--i wuz serious:  bout time he started acting like a cat.  i was beginning to doubt him!  i feel kinda FTW myself today.  not enuf news, probably.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 21:30 | Link to Comment mcguire
mcguire's picture

lol!  15 delta option has plenty of skew in a 3-6 sigma world!! 

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 21:35 | Link to Comment dumpster
dumpster's picture

this articles not about buying gold

 

it is about gaming a anal system the gotcha boys

the idea this is buying gold is trivial.. it is buying fluffs of air ,

to buy gold march on down to the coin shop .. plunk the cash down,

to play in the den of so much bravado.. that only the 5 or 10 percent win

the rest is just making the dealers money as they mAkE THE RULEs..

enough of this headline titled gold

may as well title it buying pieces of paper .. and then hopeing someone will shell out a couple hundered or more for the service ... and by the way thats were these guys make the dough..

football teams should be selling the plays before the game starts

 

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 21:42 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Bro..

all we can do is keep gift wrapping the truth and hope that it reaches people.

all we can do is try to help our fellow man..

the guys playing this game dont know anything else.

the guys playing this game have their entire lives wrapped up in it.

all you can do is just pray for them.. and I wish I was kidding.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 21:44 | Link to Comment dumpster
dumpster's picture

JW n FL

 

10-4  

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!