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Meredith Whitney's Chagrin?? No
The MSM and its shills came out in force against Merdith spreading lies about what she said. including but not limited to blowhard David Kocktok ( http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/david-kotok-policy-madness-muniland )
What she said nine months ago is that that people would start to worry about Munis within 12 months
Dimon... a hero again.
Right, so as munis rip through remaining cash, they hope to get loan retructuring only to not be able to pay that either because... well because they are broke.
Good to see new games being invented.
Rentier dream is to have them perpetually only making the minimum payment
What would be the benefit of a concession at 30%, rather than bankruptcy?
A longer timeline...
What? A criminal organization not being reimbursed 100 pennies on the dollar for fraud?
This is an outrage!
gosh, declaring bankruptcy used to be the cool thing to do :(
So does this mean my sewer bill will quit being 5-10 times my water bill?
Jefferson County officials went to jail, JPM, well, you know...
Could munis be the new subprime?
This has me giddy.
Do you actually want municipalities to declare bankruptcy and see bondholders lose their shirts? Really?
If the alternative is an unfair subsidy that hoses the taxpayers.
Fraud needs to end.
Yes. Clear enough? Anarchy for the USA. It's coming someday.
Clearly a rhetorical question.
Taking a play out of Greece palybook...must spend all money to maximize leverage and avoid "reach-arounds"!
Love this...too bad AIG didn't do this before they paid out...wait a minute, they did, then got paid by the taxpayer not to...fuck
I am with pladizow...why wouldn't they declare bankruptcy versus being 30% indebted to "squid junior"?
when you create money out of thin air, when is a 70% haircut, a 70% haircut? looks as if the banks are 30% or more up here...what with bonuses and such.
If a dollar is created in the woods and 30 people spend it does it still exist?
Gold @ 1776. How ironic.
down two fiddy. that damn loch ness monster!
When JPM restocks on silver, so will I.
That stage looks like the arse end of an English tug boat
In seeing this again it seems I have greatly miscalculated my entire financial state of being.
New gameplan: The sooner I go broke the sooner I will have more money to spend!
Added bonus: I will no longer be required to work for it!
"Incidentally, what Jefferson County has shown the world is that a market test on real manageable LTV on muni debt is about 70% lower than currently marked."
"real manageable LTV on muni debt" re. Jefferson County does not represent the broader muni market. It is an egregious case. There are more egregious cases, but muni bond defaults are still rare... especially among GO bonds.
So far, Whitney is way off on her prediction that hundreds of billions of dollars of municipal debt would end in default in 2011. Not even close, Whitney!
Operative phrase being "so far". Keep on hopin'!
Hard to call the timing in this market. But the direction is pretty clear.
Muni austerity.....bitchez !
Sewer debt. How ironic.
These guys ever going to show up.....or did I miss it?
And short cuts for all!
There you have it, screw the taxpayers some more.
So did they or didn't they? TIA
They agreed to try to come up with a settlement to avoid BK. Throw the threat of BK out and let the 70% bond haircuts begin.
Isn't that a default on the county's debt obligations?
Yeah, they passed it, one nay vote.
If it's legal to install new septic tanks there I'm opening a plumbing business. Main selling point: Explaining exponential growth in the rate payers sewer bill.
Rate payers just got royally screwed.
You think TPTB are going to let someone make them look bad? Hell no, they're going to do the misdirect and make Whitney look bad on her "call". Throwing money to munis or allowing them to cook their books to keep them alfoat until TPTB can get the markets to correct (markets correct, effin' hilarious, I crack myself up). Don't think it happens? I've seen the wizard behind the curtain.
And the Morgue is going to eat a loss? You're effin' jokin' right? JPM paid a substantial bribe, errr, worked hard to negotiate the deal from GS, who had already landed the con. The JPM will help out JeffCo by refinancing the balanace for, oh let's say, 100 years. The original debt was $250MM. Please tell me you don't think other munis haven't been sucked in to this CDS con. Hell, they sold this shit around the world. To everyone.
Confirmation on refi: The settlement today, if approved, would include erasing more than $1 billion in debt and refinancing $2.05 billion to pay off old debts, contingent on creditors agreeing to an additional $30 million in concessions. The proposal would also include sewer rate increases as much as 8.2 percent a year for three years and 3.25 percent a year afterward until the debt is paid off. - http://blog.al.com/spotnews/2011/09/jefferson_county_commission_to_15.ht... ROFLMAO!
Regardless of what dog and pony show TPTB have prepared for us from one day to the next, watching gold move up $65 in 12 hours (after the beating it has taken) and dragging silver behind it assures me of one thing. They're grasping at straws and it is gonna blow. Bet your last silver dime on that. The key may very well be the EU's habitual return to the teet of Germany. Just sayin'.
The amount of forgiveness is not materially different than last month.
The rate increases are (higher), and (but) they are more spread out.
The main contingencies of last month's proposal, however, were that the State of Alabama would need to back-stop a fund to make-up for any shortfall in revenues as well as backing the entire debt.
The State refused to even consider these proposals and now we get no details of the arrangement other than $1.1 billion is forgiven and a rate increase of roughly 17% over the next 18 months is agreed to instead of the 25% initially proposed.
This sudden secrecy and agreement is an obvious attempt to divert attention and kick the can. After all, you pass the deal, you default when the shortfall fund is depleted and you start the whole thing over again.
"... most municipalities will use up all their cash first before acknowledging reality and pushing for comparable hard line negotiating tactics with creditors."
Probably true. I imagine the concept of fraudulent conveyance doesn't apply to municipalities.
OTOH, so much (not all, but a lot) of the muni market is crooked and a convenient way to pad the bank accounts of lawyers, bankers, and especially developers. I used to cover Section 8 housing where the construction cost (or valuation on refi) was about $150 psf when comparable properties were around $80 psf. I saw it in college dorm construction as well.
An incredible scan, and the reason that programs like this will never be reformed. Too much money in it for the participants, and those who want to reform it are easily portrayed as anti-poor, anti-minority, etc.
Alabama county makes deal with J.P. Morgan to avert bankruptcy
Alabama county could avoid bankruptcy: report http://www.marketwatch.com/story/alabama-county-could-avoid-bankruptcy-report-2011-09-16
A group of the county’s major creditors is expected to approve the settlement, which would include sewer rate increases of as much as 8.2% for three years .
Jefferson County refinance $2.05 billion, if creditors agree to $30 million in future concessions.
One of my best friends lives in Hoover, AL and has water and sewer from the Jefferson County system. His water bill and sewer bill are $300-400 per month. My water and sewer total about $30-45 at the most. I have a swimming pool and water my yard quite a bit. He can't afford to water his yard. Another friend in Mountain Brook, AL, also on JeffCo utilities, calculated it cost him $15 every day he runs his sprinkler system.
One tragedy, and the reason people went to jail, was that the money was spent foolishly and probably fraudulently, and the sewer system is not really much better off after spending the money.
Jefferson County also took the easy way out 30+ years ago and enacted a county "income tax" of 1% that eventually was challenged in court and overturned, so the county lost a large portion of their income at just the wrong time when the sewer bond auction rate market froze in August 2007. Jefferson County is now reduced to selling assets in a sort of municipal yard sale and bake sale:
Sic transit gloria.
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