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Following "Fine-Tuning", Second Print Of Q4 GDP Lifts It Back To Initial Estimate Of 3.0%

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Back on January 27, before the impact of the trillions in liquidity injections by the central banks was fully appreciated, the advance Q4 GDP print came in below estimates of 3.0%, printing at 2.8%. Today, we just got the flip flop to that, after the second revision just printed at 3.0%, on expectations of an unchanged print at 2.8%. The reason: a fine-tuning, whether seasonally adjusted or not, which improved 4 of the components of Q4 GDP (Fixed Investment, Personal Consumption, Imports, Government Expenditures), while reducing two (Inventories and Exports) nominally. Net result, a slight bump from 2.8% to 3.0% for the second Q4 GDP print. The final GDP revision will be made public on March 29 - if history is any precedent, it will be back down to 2.8%. As for the reason why the market is less than delighted with this "beat" is that with EUR Brent at record highs, courtesy of everyone else but primarily the ECB doing the equivalent of QE 3 in 2011's biggest deception play, it firmly take the Fed's punchbowl away at least for 3 months. More at 10 am when Bernanke testifies.

 

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Wed, 02/29/2012 - 09:53 | 2207529 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

GDP will be made to be whatever it needs to be to maintain proper perception and control.  Move along.  Look at how much of that GDP is already simply paper pushing compared to the creation of real tangible products that will make life better for everyone.

 

There is a very real cost for creating captial without adding any real value to the economy.  Fiat deaths are never pretty and impossible to time.  Get physical and sleep well.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:12 | 2207590 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Someone is going to start a wave of selling the top here. Same thing as the last bubble top, it was all predictions of how the DOW would soon be at 20,000, CNBC guys elbowing each other in the face to up the target, and sunshine and unicorns everywhere. $4 gas nationwide now....just sayin'.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 09:51 | 2207530 transaccountin
transaccountin's picture

All that fiat printing was so worth it!

By election time we will have spent 6 trillion in fiat hopioum to get a 3% GDP, ROFL.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:23 | 2207617 Manthong
Manthong's picture

don't forget the NOMINAL part..

I prefer this interpretation:

cheap, cut, cut-rate, deficient, depleted, economical, inadequate, inexpensive, inferior, insignificant, little, low-grade, marked down, meager, moderate, modest, nominal , paltry, poor, puny, reasonable, scant, second-rate, shoddy, slashed, small, sparse, substandard, trifling, uncostly, worthless   or even..

honorary, in effect only, in name only, mentioned, named, ostensible, pretended, professed, puppet, purported, seeming, self-styled, simple, so-called, stated, suggested, titular  

http://thesaurus.com/browse/nominal

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 09:52 | 2207532 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Can someone please say it:

Net actual inflation of at least 6%, rather than the convenient ~2.5, GDP dropped in Q4 by .5%. 

We wont even discuss the Hedonic adjustments.  It would put us far below.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:02 | 2207563 Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture

John Williams at Shadow Stats shows inflation about 8% to 10%........Michael Pollaro at Forbes shows money supply expansion running above 10% on an annual basis if I remember correctly. 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:05 | 2207570 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I was going to post 8% but I checked (because I care about intellectual honesty) and he has it at just over 6 right now.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:00 | 2207721 knightowl77
knightowl77's picture

Every wek at the store it seems like it is going up faster than that...shrinking package sizes and rising prices...

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 09:53 | 2207537 Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

What  a crock

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 09:54 | 2207539 bdc63
bdc63's picture

... And the hits just keep on coming ... 3% ... what a funcking joke.  But the bots are LOVING it!

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 09:54 | 2207540 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

"Just keep your eyes on the SCOREBOARD folks...."

Dow 13,000

SPY 1400

"...and pay no attention to the man behind the curtin."

 

 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:10 | 2207542 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

*edit* Had temporary mental idiocy.  Personal Consumption should be up-up-up when iPad3 releases....good thing people don't worry about paying debts anymore.  The public is learning from the CB's of the world. 

 

WTI doesn't seem to like these anti-QE numbers.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 09:55 | 2207543 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

It's the goldilocks economic recovery

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:04 | 2207569 bdc63
bdc63's picture

if by 'goldilocks' you mean 'makebelieve', then +1

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:23 | 2207622 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

GDP price came in Way Hot at 0.9% on estimate 0.4% qoq. Whew!

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 09:56 | 2207546 Chimerican
Chimerican's picture

The U.S. is on track for 4% GDP this year. It's time to cover your shorts and start buying. This promises to be a terrific bull market.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:11 | 2207577 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Tell us smart guy, how long will this bull market last?  the last one went from 2001 to 2008.  Come on, make a prediction tough guy.  It is a bit more complicated than simply saying buy or sell.  

BTW-  ZIRP is QE.  Remind me, how has that worked out for Japan's market over the last twenty fucking years?

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:19 | 2207611 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I'd just let him buy stocks if he loves em so much...good luck to the bulls theyll get their nuts chopped off one morning. 

 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 09:56 | 2207547 Racer
Racer's picture

when Bernanke testifies

 

READ: When Bernanke lies

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 09:57 | 2207548 miker
miker's picture

GDP = Great Delusionial Propaganda

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:00 | 2207558 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

GDP = God Damned Plutocracy

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:07 | 2207575 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I thought it was a JFK joke: Gidget Does Porn.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 09:56 | 2207549 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

On Kudlow last night:

Kudlow - the Fed is not pumping the markets

Jimmy Rogers - It's an election year Larry, expect alot of good news.

Give Jimmy a seegar.

 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:10 | 2207584 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

ZIRP is QE by any other name.  How has that been working out for Japan for the last twenty fucking years?

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 09:58 | 2207551 thatthingcanfly
thatthingcanfly's picture

Whoo-hoo! We're growing at 3%! Break out the champagne! All those silly silver & gold bulls hiding in their caves with boxes of MREs and ammo will have a tough time denying our economy is back on track NOW.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:14 | 2207597 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Growing at 3%, nice money printing there....too bad inflation is real 10% and gas is over $4.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 09:58 | 2207553 Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

Kudlow must be on the nose candy again.  He's unbearable to listen to anymore.  He actually believes the crap coming out of DC

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:28 | 2207637 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

I thought the same thing, Larry is back on the junk

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:34 | 2207651 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Moneyswirth - No I don't think that Larry "the line" Kudlow is back on the columbian marching powder again.

Just think that he likes his 1.5MM contract and will bend to the producers wishes. Kudlow is the least sufferable person on CNBC. The rest are just shills for Obama / CNBC.

The "money hunny" looks like she is 2 meals ahead and 3 shits behind these days.

 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 09:59 | 2207554 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Jeez, with this growing GDP, the people surely must be doing well, right?

I mean, look at this improvement.  10 years ago, 1 out of every 14 Americans were prused for owing debt.

Now it is 1-in-7.  Now thats change I can believe in (as we become a creditor state)!

http://www.alternet.org/economy/154329/towards_a_creditor_state%3A_1_in_7_americans_pursued_by_debt_collectors/

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:18 | 2207583 Bob
Bob's picture

The threat of debtors' prison should keep their noses to the grindstone!

http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2011/12/13/388303/the-return-of-debtors...

If not, they can only hope the uniformed corporate tools use "non-lethal force" in their arrest:

http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2012/2/28/152335/039

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 09:59 | 2207555 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Soooo...GDP is ramping UP...therefore...it is necessary to SELL a major commodity of production, SILVER...Yeah! Only in the USSA.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:02 | 2207561 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

3.0% GDP on more deficit spending, more consumer credit expansion and more mcjob growth. Yeah, this is sustainable.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:01 | 2207565 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

GDP - Goebbel's Duplicated Propaganda

He would be proud of what has manifested from his teachings.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:07 | 2207567 Ostapuk Ivano
Ostapuk Ivano's picture

Happy Birthday Tyler!!

It says on the facebook that its your birthday...

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:06 | 2207572 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

bernanke wont say squat about any potential for removing accomodations, not now, not until, after November at least, his job is at stake.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:17 | 2207602 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

As soon as Bernank even mentions raising rates or stopping free 0% money flow, back to the bottom we go. A keg party only last so long on cups of water with a promise beer trucks will be showing up any minute.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:06 | 2207573 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

WOW 'adjusting' our way out of depression! Just fantastic.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:16 | 2207600 HurricaneSeason
HurricaneSeason's picture

That's a 20 basis point move up in the GDP in 1 month! If that isn't a sign the economy is turning around and stocks are cheap, I don't know what is. That should come to an increase to GDP of 5.4% by the end of the year unless the 20 basis points are compounded monthly.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:19 | 2207610 youngman
youngman's picture

I saw the inflation part of this jump big......and now add in the Gas cost...we are movin on up.....it will be interesting to see the Bernanke say there is no inflation when costs are skyrocketing....here we go.....on to the big lies...but it will all be lost in an Election year full of them

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:22 | 2207621 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I think thats just what they want everyone to believe, that this year is all about some election thats fake in the first place....but Im not buying it at all. Summer of $5 gas coming next? Time for the big false flag I say, right when everyones all complacent that nothing can possibly go wrong. Theyre all going to get killed out there.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:27 | 2207626 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Can't believe the revision of GDP PRice Index! 0.9% qoq vs 0.4% estimated (chain-weighted). And that was before the oil spike!!

Core PCE 1.3%!

PCE 1.2% !

That is hot, buddy

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:44 | 2207679 chinaboy
chinaboy's picture

Give people who produce the GDP number more bonus and may be we can get 5% GDP, Which means Dow 23000, which means more bonus for Wall Street, which means more GDP ....

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:45 | 2207688 JohnF
JohnF's picture

Any quarter where inventories account for close to half of the growth is a quarter where a whole bunch of people are misallocating capital. This is not good news, not good news at all...

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:54 | 2207710 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

Far as I can tell, the entire 1.7 for the year is from inventory (auto channel stuffing) and without it we are at 0 for the year.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 10:55 | 2207713 adr
adr's picture

The scam will continue until Obamas re-election is in the bag and Facebook goes public. The con men believe Facebook will be the catalyst to get retail back in the game. They have been extra greedy with the bait this time pushing many consumer name stocks far past any reasonable valuation. The Wall Street psycopaths really want this transfer to hurt since main street hasn't been playing along.

They hope Facebook will cause "investors" to pick up $700 Apple shares, $600 Priceline, $550 Autozone, etc in the largest wealth transfer debacle yet. No money can be made unless a bag holder takes the fall. If the "smart" money actually thought their corporations were actually worth the insanse current valuations, they wouldn't be selling and wouldn't be asking mom and pop to get back in the game.

It al banks on Facebook and that will mark the top. If Fuckerberg believes out of some vain notion that his company is actually worth something, and holds on to his shares, the Wall Street vampires will be happy to watch his fortune disappear.

He'll come to them and say, "You told me I'd be rich and my company would be the biggest in the history of the world." They'll say, "You didn't actually think you were one of us kid, did you? We made you. Your company was nothing more than a silicone valley investment wet dream. Ha, Facebook, really. Big as IBM, bigger than Apple."

Another guy smoking a cigar says, "Ha, look he's crying. God what a pussy." As Fuckerberg runs from the room exclaiming, "I matter, Facebook matters, ahhh ha haa haah waaaa."

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:10 | 2207777 ButIfNot
ButIfNot's picture

Let's see if I've got this again

Inflation is running 'round 10

But good news you see

GDP is at 3!

As Benny just SCREWS common men....

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 11:25 | 2207858 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Great. That will help Fannie Mae lower its billion dollar losses.   NOT!

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/02/29/fannie-mae-loses-2-4-...

 

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 01:05 | 2219197 q5251355
q5251355's picture

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